Beane's Challenge: HOW to Add A Hitter?
by Nico on Jul 24, 2008 10:04 AM PDT
534 comments
It is no simple question. Everyone from Billy to opposing pitchers know that the A's need a middle-of-the-order bat added to the current configuration, before the A's are back in the "contention conversation," and I believe the A's need to avoid the Casey Blakes who are "ok but not special" and the Frank Thomases who are "not part of the 2010 conversation," and find a way to add a hitter who can anchor the team through at least the 2009-2012 seasons.
But when you look at the available "too legit to quit" hitters Oakland could target, they tend to have qualities that make them poor targets:
Past Their Prime: For Pat Burrell, on the free agent market you will pay too much for years in Burrell's mid-to-late 30s. That is almost never a good idea. I would love to add Troy Glaus and figure out where to play whom later, but again Glaus is 32 and exiting the years when players tend to be most productive and healthy.
Very Costly In Talent To Acquire: Jason Bay seems like the closest thing to an ideal fit, but if the Pirates are smart (and GMs aren't as dumb as you think as often as you think), they will not let their star player go without getting a return that includes players like Trevor Cahill, Brett Anderson, Henry Rodriguez, Kurt Suzuki, Ryan Sweeney - in other words, precisely the guys the A's are counting on to make the team special over these coming years. Trouble is, teams that aren't close to winning want Cahill and Anderson and Rodriguez, not Street and Ellis, and teams close to winning will not be eager to trade their cleanup hitter, now or this Winter, for Oakland's 4th and 5th best young pitching prospects.
So what is the right approach for Beane to take to try to secure a legitimate hitter who could be productive for the next four years? Personally, I think Cahill and Anderson should be untouchable, even in the tempting quest to finally upgrade this frustratingly inept offense. Starting pitching is the cornerstone of success, and those two seem like as close to "sure things" to develop into solid, if not front-end, major league starters. I tend to think the one trade chip Oakland might entertain is Henry Rodriguez, a guy whose tremendous upside makes him incredibly appealing to teams but with whom the A's, thanks to the depth of having Cahill and Anderson, could afford to part. Rodriguez, packaged with James Simmons or Vince Mazzaro, might help fetch you a worthy major league ready, or mid-to-late 20s, hitter for the middle of the lineup.
But who? Who is the right hitter and what team is the right trading partner, and does the right player happen to play for the right team? For some reason, the name that keeps popping back into my mind is Ryan Garko, a right-handed hitter who is 27, could bat 4th in the A's lineup, plays for a team (Cleveland) that is not going to win this season, and happens to be having a down year. He also happens to play 1B, not SS or 3B or LF - oh well - and acquiring a 1B for the long-term would put Daric Barton's future with Oakland in question.
But if Rodriguez, Simmons, Mazzaro, Street (great fit for Cleveland, IMO), and maybe Barton himself were put into the "let's find a deal" conversation for Garko, or for Garko plus __, I would have to think Cleveland would be all ears. Is there a deal there, maybe for the right two of those five A's, that might be good for both teams?
And if it's not Garko - and that's just one of a zillion hypothetical possibilities - how should the A's go about landing the right guy to bat 4th from 2009-2012, so that Oakland can get back to the business of rebuilding a team that can score enough to win more baseball games than the Angels do?
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Whew!
Relief….I thought the headline read “How to add a HITLER”
"the A's need more quality preembreetive pitching" ~monkeyball
by OptimistPrime on Jul 24, 2008 10:14 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Well, see..you get a bad hairstyle, a marking pen...
by Flashfire on Jul 24, 2008 10:16 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I see that hairstyle making a comeback
When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 24, 2008 10:16 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Crushing defeat at hands of foes, check
Fiscal crisis, check
Resentment at outside world, check
Radical restructuring of system, check
Emphasis on youth, check
Invasion of neighboring territories, check
Uh-oh …
Who needs competence as long as everyone smiles? @('.')@
by monkeyball on Jul 24, 2008 10:45 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Just wait
until the A’s start signing the 94 Scott Hatteberg clones from Brazil.
"May a nit suck Cajun geese?" wonders Red. No, we see gnu Jack Cust in a yam.
by andeux on Jul 24, 2008 10:56 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
QOTM
"Life is a horizontal fall" -Jean Cocteau
by King Richard on Jul 24, 2008 11:18 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
turns out we drafted this Austrian prospect named Schicklgruber ...
... but he used his friend’s birth certificate to claim he was two years younger …
Who needs competence as long as everyone smiles? @('.')@
by monkeyball on Jul 25, 2008 9:37 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
that's not what I had in mind with my campaign to reinstitute free kraut at the Coliseum
Who needs competence as long as everyone smiles? @('.')@
by monkeyball on Jul 25, 2008 3:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think with all the money we aren't spending, a FA is the best bet
My problem with people like Garko is that they aren’t likely to ever truly dominate, and it’s hard to imagine winning a WS without one great hitter in there somewhere.
I’d love to see us make a real run at someone like Dunn (instead of Burrell) in Free Agency. If we’re trading, I agree with you that Bay is a great one to target. He may cost less in the off-season because he’ll only have 1 year left on his contract.
by nevermoor on Jul 24, 2008 10:24 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Garko?
I’d much rather try to get either an elite MLB bat, Holliday / Bay, or a young prospect who projects as an elite bat, Fernando Martinez for example, yes by giving up some young pitching depth, than giving up even mid tier prospects for Garko.
Garko’s career OPS+ is 105. His career high is 117. Jack Cust’s OPS+ this year is 122. Garko is not better than Cust offensively. Defensively, Garko is another 1b / DH type. Beane could have easily gotten a Garko type, if he had signed Russ Branyan, instead of Emil Brown. Or Josh Phelps instead of Emil Brown.
Why give up any worthwhile prospects, especially Henry Rodriguez for him? If you’re going to trade worthwhile prospects, you might as well go all in, and get back an elite hitter.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on Jul 24, 2008 10:30 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Holliday is sketchy
His stats away from Coors are far from elite.
The last three years:
Home:.370/.430/.676 HR:59
Road:.281/.343/.466 HR:30
He’s still an upgrade, but I wouldn’t move anything too valuable for him.
"If everything seems to be going well, you have obviously overlooked something."
by RIPHalsey on Jul 24, 2008 10:48 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know his road stats
I just don’t put much emphasis on road stats. Also, while his D has nothing to do with whether he’s an elite bat, his D is very very good.
Regardless, the Rockies’ asking price for him is ridonkulous. They asked the Mets for Carlos Beltran and Fernando Martinez. They asked the Angels for Kendrick and Adenhart and either of Santana or Saunders.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on Jul 24, 2008 11:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, the road stats are half his games and we all know what an aberration Coors Field is
The only other place I think even compares to that is Arlington.
If the Rockies are asking for stuff like that, though, they’re not going to get takers for Holliday.
Last of the Ninth - Photography Site / jamesvenes.com - Blog
by Flashfire on Jul 24, 2008 11:19 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
His road stats are consistently improving though
(including .859 this year)
by nevermoor on Jul 24, 2008 11:23 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wonder if that's about where he'll top out or not.
Probably in the Coliseum, at least.
Still, Colorado’s asking price is enough for me to give a big “HELL NO!” to a deal for Holliday. With what they’re asking for, you’d think he was the next Pujols no matter where he played.
Last of the Ninth - Photography Site / jamesvenes.com - Blog
by Flashfire on Jul 24, 2008 11:25 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, the road stats are HALF his games.
By looking at only road stats, you are throwing out HALF the sample.
Why not just look at park adjusted numbers like EQA, OPS+, Batting Runs?
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on Jul 24, 2008 11:24 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
His road stats are going to be much more in line with what you can expect with him...
...when he’s playing for a team that doesn’t have half their games in Coors Field.
Last of the Ninth - Photography Site / jamesvenes.com - Blog
by Flashfire on Jul 24, 2008 11:26 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Most players, no most athletes
perform better at home. If you want to take away the homefield advantage from Holliday, then you need to take away the home field advantage from all the players you’re comparing him to.
At which point, you’ll have thrown away ridiculous amounts of data.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on Jul 24, 2008 11:29 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
No, not really
What you seem to be missing is how great an impact Coors Field has on people who get to play half their seasons in that place. Even with the humidor, it is unlike any other ballpark in the Majors. That is a HUGE factor.
I wouldn’t say anyone who bats in the Coliseum has a big home field advantage by having half their games there, would you? That could almost be the reverse of the Holliday stuff.
I don’t know what the general standard of comparison is, but I would imagine most solid players are within roughly .100 OPS points of their home/away totals, just to throw a number out there. Since we’re talking about Jason Bay in here, let’s take a quick look at him:
2008 Home: .302/.373/.604/.977
2008 Away: .273/.393/.455/.848
2007 Home: .259/.334/.388/.722
2007 Away: .237/.321/.445/.766
2006 Home: .297/.426/.504/.930
2006 Away: .276/.367/.558/.925
2005 Home: .271/.395/.465/.860
2005 Away: .337/.408/.644/1.052
I don’t know what made him so much better on the road in 2005 but Bay’s overall numbers both home and away seem fairly close. That’s the mark of a good, consistent hitter. 2006 was especially close but he had better power numbers on the road. This year, it’s flipped a bit to better home numbers. Overall, that tells me that Bay is someone who can be counted on to give you solid production no matter where he’s playing. At the same time, you could probably expect some time to get used to the American League if he comes over here.
In the end, I’m not throwing out anything Holliday is doing because he performs better at home than on the road. I’m discounting some of what Holliday does at home because of where home is.
Last of the Ninth - Photography Site / jamesvenes.com - Blog
by Flashfire on Jul 24, 2008 11:42 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I get a little tired of hearing about how
“but so-and-so would only OPS .770 playing half their games in Oakland.” EVERY hitter on both teams will suffer drop-offs for this effect. So who cares? A better hitter is a better hitter anywhere – the exact numbers just change.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jul 24, 2008 11:47 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
True, but the important thing is paying appropriately for that change.
Last of the Ninth - Photography Site / jamesvenes.com - Blog
by Flashfire on Jul 24, 2008 11:49 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
But if Holliday can OPS .950 at Coors,
and that’s “well above league average,” and he can OPS .800 at the Coliseum – and that’s well above league average – is it a bad use of money to pay him as a “well above league average” hitter?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jul 24, 2008 11:52 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, but then we can whine about Beane not getting any .880 OPS hitters
So that’s an added benefit
by nevermoor on Jul 24, 2008 12:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good point - that's worth a lot to me
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jul 24, 2008 12:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is a very important point
and I’m glad you pointed it out.
Not that the A’s have a snowball’s chance in hell of acquiring Holliday, of course.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Jul 24, 2008 1:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
but the .950 OPS has to be seen in the context of coors
Holliday’s value is based on however above average for coors Holliday is. So the problem is that the Rockies are demanding what a team would for a .950 OPS hitting player. That price isn’t ok for a coors hitter, but would be ok if that number was attained in a more neutral park. For example, I’d rather have someone who hit .825 OPS in Petco than Holliday. (not that such a person necessarily exists or is available)
by ohmangoAs on Jul 24, 2008 1:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed - the problem is if the Rockies
ask ”.950 OPS” value for Holliday, not if he OPSs .800 with Oakland.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jul 24, 2008 1:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The trade our MLB pitchers then
Our pitcher will get the bump for pitching in Oakland Coliseum, and we can sell them as 3.5 ERA guys instead 4.0 ERA guys, and even out the value bias
by asfansince1989 on Jul 24, 2008 2:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
We do. Constantly
And that’s why we got so much value for Blanton
by nevermoor on Jul 24, 2008 2:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't believe that other teams are so ignorant
so as not to be able to factor in park effect when trading for a player. There is a large body of Blanton’s work – almost as large as his body – on the road for his career. And park adjusted stats are not hard to come by.
I’m thinking the Phillies knew exactly what they were trading for, and feel Blanton can win for them if he just reverts back to doing what he did, on average, for the first 3.4 seasons of his 3.6 year career.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jul 24, 2008 4:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If you're "discounting" some of what Hollidy does at home
why not use a park adjustment? As opposed to just citing road stats.
And one player, Jason Bay, doesn’t prove anything.
The problem with trying to apply a “general” standard of comparison, or using a specific player like Bay, is that no one has any idea what are the factors that cause differences in home road performances. Furthermore, no one has any clue how much or little different factors affect different players. Some players might benefit more by sleeping on their own beds. Others, not at all.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on Jul 24, 2008 11:58 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's not useful to discount home stats, even in Coors
because as rfloh is saying, you get a lot more certainty when you DOUBLE your sample size, even if the data is slightly skewed. Especially if you can quantify the amount that the the data would likely be skewed.
So even if Coors has a 10% impact on OPS, the fact that:
1) including Coors stats doubles your sample, and
2) We can quantify, in general, how much impact Coors would have
means that the best thing to do is to include his Coors stats and adjust them accordingly.
by sardonic on Jul 24, 2008 12:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
statistically speaking
your confidence bounds goes down as square root of your sample size. If you double your sample size, you reduce your uncertainty by 30%
by asfansince1989 on Jul 24, 2008 2:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
like, say, Mark Ellis?
Who needs competence as long as everyone smiles? @('.')@
by monkeyball on Jul 24, 2008 11:49 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
As a group
players hit better at home (all parks) than on the road. In the case of a pitchers park like the Coliseum this effect may be masked by the park effect, and in the case of an extreme hitters park like in Colorado it will be enhanced. Also, 3 of the 4 other parks in the NL West are unfavorable to hitters. Using park-adjusted numbers (like OPS+ or EqA) gives a better estimate of how good a hitter is than simply throwing out home numbers and using only road numbers.
Incidentally, for his career, Ellis has hit .258/.336/.409 in the Coliseum and .275/.341/.410 on the road
"May a nit suck Cajun geese?" wonders Red. No, we see gnu Jack Cust in a yam.
by andeux on Jul 24, 2008 12:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That .001 in slugging has just KILLED us at home.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jul 24, 2008 12:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I want splits for pre-Briggs and post-Briggs
"Dispatch knuckleheadedness with Bond-like aplomb." –74mk
by iglew on Jul 24, 2008 1:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Historically, that' s not true
Players perform better than their Rockie road stats before and after they’re on that team. No one’s really sure why that is. My impression is that hitters make some sort of swing adjustment to play in Colorado and can’t turn it off when they’re on the road.
"[Greg] Vaughn is in a funk so deep, George Clinton wearing a miner's helmet couldn't find him."
- Jim Baker, ESPN.com, May 2002
by achiappanza on Jul 30, 2008 2:10 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
need to normalize
I’d believe the “shock value” (pun) of seeing Holiday’s reduced value due to his splits more if I saw this relative to all other players’ home/away splits, including that of just the Rockies’. Without such data, this is unfixed data, and you could just conclude that the guy doesn’t like traveling? (thus he’s in MLB, not the NBA…)
by rollierollieOxenfree on Jul 25, 2008 3:22 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know
I don’t think we need to add 170 more K’s to the lineup. You certainly could not have Dunn and Cust in the same lineup.
I do like the mammoth blasts that he hits
by Trainman on Jul 24, 2008 10:31 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
A team with Dunn and Cust would be better off playing for a traveling softball team that...
...specializes in hitting bombs.
Last of the Ninth - Photography Site / jamesvenes.com - Blog
by Flashfire on Jul 24, 2008 10:51 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I see Cust as a ticking collapse candidate. How much longer do you see him being effective?
(expecting “he already sucks” responses)
When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 24, 2008 11:18 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Unless he can't adapt to the way he's pitched? Out of the league within three years tops.
Last of the Ninth - Photography Site / jamesvenes.com - Blog
by Flashfire on Jul 24, 2008 11:19 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Unless he can adapt, that is.
Last of the Ninth - Photography Site / jamesvenes.com - Blog
by Flashfire on Jul 24, 2008 11:20 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If The A's had an offense of all Custs and Dunns
It would set the major league record for runs scored by a large margin. I’d be thrille dto have them both in the same lineup.
by GusanoQuemador on Jul 24, 2008 11:34 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
They'd probably also have one of the worst records in the leagues and strike out more than anyone else.
Plus their defense would be a traveling circus.
Last of the Ninth - Photography Site / jamesvenes.com - Blog
by Flashfire on Jul 24, 2008 11:43 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
One of the two is DH
and I’ll eat some strikeouts for a .900+ OPS guy any day of the week.
by nevermoor on Jul 24, 2008 11:44 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The scenario was "If The A's had an offense of all Custs and Dunns"
Last of the Ninth - Photography Site / jamesvenes.com - Blog
by Flashfire on Jul 24, 2008 11:46 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I want to see a Cust - Dunn keystone combo.
Cust vs Crosby…..hmmm….
When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 24, 2008 11:47 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd expect Dunn to last a lot longer than Cust as a productive player.
The Adam Jack LF – DH alternator would probably only last through next year. Maybe the year after.
When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 24, 2008 11:46 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
By the by, Cust has a career .840 OPS while Dunn's is .944.
Last of the Ninth - Photography Site / jamesvenes.com - Blog
by Flashfire on Jul 24, 2008 11:47 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
How do they compare when you park adjust?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jul 24, 2008 11:48 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Beats the hell out of me.
Last of the Ninth - Photography Site / jamesvenes.com - Blog
by Flashfire on Jul 24, 2008 11:49 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
THINGS MY FATHER DOES!!!!!!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jul 24, 2008 11:52 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dunn 131 Career OPS+, Cust 127
I guess park effects do matter
When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 24, 2008 11:56 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
There's not a team out there
That wouldn’t love to have a Cust & Dunn combo in the middle of their lineup. If you put Dunn in front of Cust, all those solo shots that everyone complains about from Cust turn into 2 run home runs. I’m drooling
by GusanoQuemador on Jul 24, 2008 12:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
What would it take to sign Dunn?
4 years $50MM? I don’t think I’d do that. I would do three years though.
When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 24, 2008 12:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would do 4/50 in a heartbeat for Dunn
by nevermoor on Jul 24, 2008 12:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
We don't need..
More guys that just walk or strikeout. I give you that he will hit 35 HR but that’s not exactly what we need. We need to sprinkle in a few High OBP guys with a couple of mashers that can bring them in with one or two speedy guys.
by MrAlex on Jul 24, 2008 12:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dunn has a high OBP and a is a masher.
Our speedies of the future are Weeks, Cardenas, Patterson, and Buck. Dunn would be a great asset to the lineup, but he seems like someone who’d decline quickly.
When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 24, 2008 12:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Man on 3rd, Less than 2 outs
Dunn & Cust suck in those situations. I think Dunn went 2+ years w/o a Sacrafice Fly.
Cust & Dunn are terrible situation hitters. If you sign Dunn, you gotta get rid of Cust. Too many blackholes in the lineup. Baserunners will never be on the move w/ 2 strikes for fear of the strike ‘em out, throw ‘em out. Station to Station baseball sucks.
by Colorado Fan on Jul 24, 2008 2:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
OK, so assuming you're right (you aren't, BTW, but whatever)
Cust will suck when Dunn hits a triple.
I haven’t looked but I’m going to guess that Adam Dunn is not exactly a triples specialist.
Also, Cust has 9 sac flies in the last 2 seasons.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Jul 24, 2008 2:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
What does Dunn hitting a triple have to do with this?
Both of them can be up in situations Colorado Fan pointed out and they hardly require Dunn tripling to get to that point.
Last of the Ninth - Photography Site / jamesvenes.com - Blog
by Flashfire on Jul 24, 2008 2:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Point is,
they’re LESS likely to end up in that situation than your average hitter.
Put those two back to back and the most likely scenarios, by far, for the second guy are either “no one on” or “a guy on first.” Of course, that’s really true for everyone, which is one of the 902374 reasons why obsessing over someone’s performance in narrow situations is a recipe for misevaluating players.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Jul 24, 2008 2:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Absofragginlutely
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Jul 24, 2008 1:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's assuming one or both don't strike out, which is probably more likely.
Not saying I wouldn’t take Dunn here but it’s silly to assume that they’ll both be mashing all the time.
Last of the Ninth - Photography Site / jamesvenes.com - Blog
by Flashfire on Jul 24, 2008 12:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah but they get at least 3 attempts a game
4-5 if we stop starting 3 different DFAs
by nevermoor on Jul 24, 2008 12:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
They don't need to mash all the time
Even mashing every 20 plate appearances would result in a ton of runs if you have a guy in front of you getting on base as much as Dunn does.
by GusanoQuemador on Jul 24, 2008 12:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He needs to take classes at his own baseball academy
Green Hulk Fists
by oaklandSMASH on Jul 24, 2008 7:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jason Bay is definitely my pick as well.
I think, however, that Bay may be gone if the A”s wait till the offseason. There are many teams in the race right now that need to add a bat and Bay’s name is right at the top of many team’s list.
If the A’s are truly interested in him then I think Beane and Littlefield can work something out since they have a past history of making trades.
I would absolutely love to have a Jason Bay in an Oakland A’s uniform. If they do pull off a deal for him then I would imagine it would be with the intention of signing him to a nice extension from his current contract. He’s 27, right handed corner outfielder, and and has plenty of pop in his bat. Always was a fan of his and he would be a perfect fit for the A’s. Billy, get this deal done!!!!!!!!!!!!
Go A’s!!!!!
by mrod on Jul 24, 2008 10:31 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
It would def. make me happy
Bay’s legit, about to peak, etc.
I think as long as we keep Cahill/Anderson I’d be hard to displease with a Bay deal.
by nevermoor on Jul 24, 2008 11:25 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Imagine the headlines too:
J. Bay to the East Bay
Say Hey to Bay’s Days playing in the Bay!
etc.
(insert yours here)
witty remark
by dtownmbrown on Jul 24, 2008 11:29 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Minor problem:
Littlefield isn’t the GM anymore.
Actually, that’s a major problem. If Littlefield was still the GM they could probably get him for like Richie Robnett and Santiago Casilla.
Also: Bay is 29.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Jul 24, 2008 1:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Littlefield traded Arthur Rhodes and Mark Redman for the right to pay
Mark Redman, Jonah Bayliss and Chad Blackwell about $8MM. Beane traded them for the right to pay Jason Kendall about $34M. I’d say Littlefield handled that a lot better than Beane.
When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 24, 2008 9:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Beane on Jason Kendall: "You're gonna love this guy."
Nico to Beane: “Actually, not so much.”
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jul 24, 2008 9:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
At least Pittsburgh paid a fair portion of his salary (in his last year)
by nevermoor on Jul 24, 2008 9:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes that's true. I'd forgotten that.
When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 25, 2008 8:49 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
hold on there: only grover and I get to say that
Who needs competence as long as everyone smiles? @('.')@
by monkeyball on Jul 25, 2008 9:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's not entirely accurate my friend
We’re the only ones who got to say that before Kendall proved his suckitude.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Jul 25, 2008 10:21 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
that was how Nico's post seemed predicated to me
Who needs competence as long as everyone smiles? @('.')@
by monkeyball on Jul 25, 2008 10:27 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nico wasn't going revisionist
Although it’s easy to interpret it that way. I read it as laced with hindsight.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Jul 25, 2008 11:40 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, hindsight - I was initially pleased
with acquiring Kendall because I only knew him by his stats, which suggested a .300-.330 hitter with a high OBP. Then I saw him hit in Spring Training, 2005, and “didn’t love him” thereafter.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jul 25, 2008 11:56 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The A's came out of that with an LCS appearance and Jerry Blevins
The Pirates came out of it with… more money in the owner’s pocket.
I’m thinking I like Beane on that one.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Jul 24, 2008 10:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're saying the $20MM extra spent on Kendall wouldn't be enough to
get someone better than him? Ramon, for example, would have been better and not nearly as expensive. Are you saying the Cubs wanted Kendall so badly that they would only trade Blevins for him and no one else?
When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 25, 2008 8:51 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Make me get rigorous, would you?
The A’s saved $8.75 million on the back side of Mark Redman’s contract. They saved $7.4 million on the back side of Rhodes’s contract.
Kendall cost $28.5 million. More than half of that money was saved off the other two contracts. The per-year cost of the Kendall trade was barely over $4 million.
Ramon Hernandez was not only substantially more expensive than that, his contract was longer… and he wasn’t a free agent in 2005.
Now, the obvious move here would have been not to sign Redman and Rhodes to those ridiculous deals in the first place, but you have to give a guy some credit for crawling out from under bad prior decisions.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Jul 25, 2008 9:42 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Please, I'm almost begging here
Do not go down this path. You cannot justify the disaster that was Kendall by pointing to the bloated contracts of Rhodes and Redman.
Beane could have moved both pitchers without having to bring in Kendall, truly saving the A’s millions of dollars.
I wrote a diary on this a couple years back, before your time I believe. Take a gander but stop when you hit the Evil Laugh. Appearently I went a couple paragraphs too far.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Jul 25, 2008 10:36 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've already read it
It’s been linked before. Sorry, dude. I disagree. It would have required a chain of basically implausible events for the A’s to get out from under those contracts with anything more useful than “most of Jason Kendall.” On top of which, there was no way to predict that Kendall would go blind in his third year here and become utterly useless.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Jul 25, 2008 12:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Implausible?
It would have been implausible to trade Rhodes for Lawton?
It would have been implausible to trade Lawton during the season?
Redman and Ishii were comparable SP. You’re telling me the Mets would have had a problem trading their 3rd string C for Mark Redman?
Implausible?
I don’t think that word means what you think it means.
As for not being able to predict Kendall’s downturn, catchers over the age of 30 who had caught as many innings as Kendall had often go downhill fast. There have been studies that have proven this, although I don’t have any of those links handy. Could anyone have foreseen the End of Days scenario we saw last year? Probably not, but the risk was so high that the attempt never should have been made.
And as I showed in my diary, it didn’t have to be made.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Jul 25, 2008 12:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Your Ahab-like conviction on this subject
has already convinced me that it’s more or less pointless to argue the issue.
I have my opinion, you have yours, and on this subject, never the twain shall meet.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Jul 25, 2008 1:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
does that me Starbuck?
Who needs competence as long as everyone smiles? @('.')@
by monkeyball on Jul 25, 2008 1:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm such a sci-fi geek
My mind went straight to Battlestar Galactica.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Jul 25, 2008 1:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, everyone gets to have an opinion
Mine are based in fact while yours (on this subject) run completely contrary to the same facts.
That probably means your opinion on this matter is wrong and if you choose to express this particular opinion in a public forum I will respond by saying you’re wrong.
Now, you’re a smart guy Paul and I really have no interest in going the rounds with you over this topic. So, if you’ve got a logical explanation as to why the whole Rhodes for Lawton/Ship Lawton Elsewhere plan was not something Beane could have managed then now is the time to share it.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Jul 25, 2008 1:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm just curious, grover,
in your scenario how you would have anticipated the A’s covering the catcher position had they dealt Rhodes for Lawton (and kept Redman, I guess) instead of acquiring Kendall. Is there a particular move you have in mind that the A’s could definitely have done?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jul 25, 2008 2:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Redman gets traded to the NY Mets
in exchange for C Jason Phillips… who completely bombed in 2005. He played so poorly the Dodgers (to whom he was traded for Ishii) released him that December rather then go to arby with him.
And how much did he cost in 2005?
$339K
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Jul 25, 2008 2:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Then what?
The Jeremy Brown era begins?
I’m genuinely curious about this one. Outbid the Orioles to get Ramon Hernandez back?
Keep in mind, the A’s were only about 10 runs better than the Angels that season. Even a modest downgrade would have presented the very real possibility of missing the playoffs.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Jul 25, 2008 2:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Paul, the A'd DID miss the play-offs in 2005
But to answer your question… I don’t know. Maybe they go after Ramon, kinda like they re-signed Rickey in 1993 after trading him to Toronto that July. I floated that idea in the diary, mainly because at the time it was the easiest deal I could think of.
What other options were available at the time would require a bit of research. Since you haven’t taken back the “implausible” crack…
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Jul 25, 2008 3:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
grover and I told everyone at the time ...
... that Kendall shouldn’t have killed his father and unknowingly slept with his mother.
Who needs competence as long as everyone smiles? @('.')@
by monkeyball on Jul 25, 2008 12:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's what happens when you answer
ads on Match.com.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jul 25, 2008 2:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't recall him tearing his eyes out, though....
seems kinda unfair. The other guy had to…
Imagine waking up at 2 a,m. and thinking of Bobby on Greyhound somewhere in the Texas wastelands..."Does your little iddy biddy back hurt, Bobby?! Does it, you SOB?!" -Alox
by Leopold Bloom on Jul 25, 2008 11:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Littlefield is gone I believe
but Bay is the way to go.
Enjoy the game
by DCinWC on Jul 24, 2008 10:32 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Garko? Ryan Garko?
And you want to give up a bunch of top prospects for him?
The same Garko who is currently hitting .241/.317/.351/.668?
No thanks. I think you are blinded with Garko by something that affects a lot of teams and fans; the thought that Garko has always killed the A’s, therefore he must be a good hitter.
facepalm.jpg
by Zonis on Jul 24, 2008 10:34 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Let's get Garko, Polanco, Ibanez, and GA!
Who needs competence as long as everyone smiles? @('.')@
by monkeyball on Jul 24, 2008 10:47 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, Zonis, that Garko
You just cited the numbers that make him a great acquisition – that’s the value you pay for him. His career numbers are what you get for him. He’s not Jason Bay, but he’s a good hitter. He won’t cost you Cahill or Anderson – which I fear Bay will. All the reasons you don’t like Garko are what make him a typical “Billy Beane acquisition” – you’re thinking Bay, he gets Garko.
I think if any team could make a “blockbuster” (multi player) deal with the A’s it might be Cleveland. Here’s a group of players that I think could potentially help the other team:
Street, Barton, H-Rodriguez, Simmons, Mazzaro, Crosby (fresh start, better defense than J. Peralta)
Garko, J. Peralta (better bat and health in exchange for defensive dropoff), a solid hitting prospect – I haven’t looked at Cleveland’s minor league system enough lately to give a name, but if the right hitting prospect is there I could see a deal happening with 2-3 players dealt from each side.
Maybe it’s Street, Crosby, Mazzaro for Garko, Peralta, and a legitimate hitting prospect. But honestly, with trade ideas I don’t have any idea what I’m talking about – I can come up with the first 70% and have to leave the real particulars to others.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jul 24, 2008 10:56 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
All good points, but we're talking about a hitter that we theoretically want
To be the acnhor of our lineup for the next few years, right?
I think it’s worth to splurge a little more in the FA market or trade market to get somebody who has a better track record than Garko.
I know a Garko-type is more of a possibilty than a Bay-type, but that won’t solve the A’s offensive problems, will it?
witty remark
by dtownmbrown on Jul 24, 2008 11:01 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is true - maybe Garko is aiming too low,
in that Holliday is the low end of “real plus hitter” and Garko is a poor-man’s Holliday. Xavier Nady is intruiging in that he is just unreal this year, and pretty solid overall now for his career. Maybe he’s a better example than Garko.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jul 24, 2008 11:03 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I still thin Jason Bay would be good
because he has similar career numbers as Holliday, but playing in Pittsburgh, not Colorado.
And I like your comment lower on the page avout H Rod and Street being the keys instead of Cahill/ Anderson
witty remark
by dtownmbrown on Jul 24, 2008 11:18 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I think Nady is a better example than Garko
The fear with him is that this is a career year he’ll never come close to again. Of course, that’s why he’d be cheaper than Bay.
by nevermoor on Jul 24, 2008 11:29 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've got a name for you
Matt LaPorta (mmmmmmm, drools)
by nevermoor on Jul 24, 2008 11:27 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Simple questions:
What would it take to get Matt Holliday?
And is he that good outside of Coors field?
by oaktownmario on Jul 24, 2008 10:44 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
No, Holliday is not all that special away from Coors
Splits from 2005-2007 show an OPS at home of 1.106 and away it’s .809. SLG at home is .676, away it’s .466. His average and OBP are also nearly .100 points higher at home than on the road, and factoring in how brutal the Coliseum is to offenses I could see the Rockies demanding more than Holliday is really worth with the A’s being left with his road averages in the Coliseum.
So far this season his away splits are a bit higher than normal but still something I’d be very wary of when it comes to giving up too much for him. Any deal for a player like Holliday absolutely must take into account expected decline outside of Coors.
Last of the Ninth - Photography Site / jamesvenes.com - Blog
by Flashfire on Jul 24, 2008 10:50 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Holliday's road lines, 2004-2008
2004: 240 .287 .367 .654
2005: 256 .313 .416 .729
2006: 280 .333 .485 .819
2007: 301 .374 .485 .860
2008: 301 .400 .459 .859
His 2008 road numbers are not higher than his 2007 numbers. And his road numbers are dragged down by his really poor first 2 years, especially that first season.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on Jul 24, 2008 11:22 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, they are getting better. No doubt there. I just took the quick 2005-2007 combination before.
Last of the Ninth - Photography Site / jamesvenes.com - Blog
by Flashfire on Jul 24, 2008 11:27 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Simple answers:
Too much, and
Not as good as the player they’d have to pay him like to have any hope of keeping him beyond 2009.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Jul 24, 2008 1:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well there is one productive hitter FA who could be cheapish
Jason Giambi and his mustache are unlikely to be re-signed by the Yanks. He would be a good pickup for us and kinda cheap (meaning cheaper than Dunn/Burrell).
But one bat is not enough for us to compete, at least not next year. How about going after Giambi AND Burrell, and have them rotate at DH while the other plays the field. Barton could then become a trade chip to the Braves/the loser of the Teix sweepstakes. If no one gives us a good deal for the kid who still has a bright future, of course we keep him around.
As for Garko, I would target him but as a buy low candidate not as someone to trade HRod for. Barton may be able to outproduce Garko as soon as next year. I really think we should target a guy like Fernando Martinez or Colby Rasmus as well.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
by vignette17 on Jul 24, 2008 10:45 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't have the magic answer for who that great cleanup hitter can be for the A's, but...
...I’m pretty sure it’s not going to be Ryan Garko. He’s just an average hitter with an OPS under .800 in his brief career, and his power numbers are entirely unimpressive overall.
2007 was a solid year for him but if the A’s could bring in someone like Jason Bay and keep him here, he’d be worth one of those top pitching prospects the A’s have in their system. Maybe not Cahill and/or Anderson, but there could be a combination of others – possibly.
But, counting on Ryan Garko as a cleanup hitter in the Coliseum is just asking for more failure.
Last of the Ninth - Photography Site / jamesvenes.com - Blog
by Flashfire on Jul 24, 2008 10:45 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I shouldn't have mentioned Garko specifically, I guess
The point of the post isn’t “Let’s go out and get Ryan Garko to solve all our hitting problems!!!” It’s that guys like Bay will cost you Cahill/Anderson level players and guys like Burrell just aren’t at the right stage of their career.
So I’m really posing the question – do you think we should let Cahill or Anderson go? (I don’t.) Should we sign an aging veteran? (Usually not a good strategy.) Or…what should we do?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jul 24, 2008 11:02 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would look at keeping Cahill and Anderson but make everyone else open for...
...discussion if the right player is involved.
That’s my gut feeling right now.
Last of the Ninth - Photography Site / jamesvenes.com - Blog
by Flashfire on Jul 24, 2008 11:03 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was going to mention that - maybe the way to get a deal done
with Pittsburgh is to offer Henry Rodriguez and Huston Street. I could see the Pirates yielding on Cahill and Anderson if the conversation included Rodriguez and Street.
If the A’s do that, they NEED to sign Bay to an extension because the key is 2010-2013, not just next season. Might be worth it.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jul 24, 2008 11:05 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
How is signing Bay to an extension any better than signing Burrell this offseason?
When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 24, 2008 11:16 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Age, for one thing
Usually cheaper to sign an extension than wait for FA bidding, for another.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jul 24, 2008 11:17 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bay is one year younger. I'm unclear how much cheaper he'd be than Burrell
Is it really worth giving up top prospects for Bay when Burrell only costs a draft pick?
When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 24, 2008 11:21 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bay was born on
Sep 20, 1978. Pat the Bat was born on October 20, 1976.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on Jul 24, 2008 11:32 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ooh I like it. 2011 PECOTA EqA and VORP
Bay - .286, 14.4
Burrell - .295, 10.5
So I guess they see Bay more durable and Burrell a better hitter in a few years. I’m not sure how making Pat a DH would affect this. Of course there’s still a defensive difference.
I’m really liking this free PECOTA. I might get hooked and re-subscribe.
When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 24, 2008 11:42 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That PECOTA surprises me
Bay is 2 years younger, and his career EQA is BETTER than Burrell’s: 306 to 294.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on Jul 24, 2008 11:49 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That projection is coming off Bay's ugly year last year,
so it would presumably be higher now, although so would Burrell’s, but probably to a lesser extent. The defensive difference is pretty big, I think.
The A's colors are green and gold.
by mikeA on Jul 24, 2008 11:52 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Very true.
When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 24, 2008 11:53 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
My position with the prospects is that the A's have a position of strength with all their...
...pitchers and they’re going to have to use that strength at some point in the next few years. They have enough pitching prospects to nearly fill out an entire pitching staff and not all of them are going to be in Oakland.
Last of the Ninth - Photography Site / jamesvenes.com - Blog
by Flashfire on Jul 24, 2008 11:21 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1 Nico!
I was thinking H-Rod, Barton. Street, and Buck/ or Crosby for Jason Bay. That seem like more than a fair deal to me. Maybe the Pirates would throw in Jack Wilson in the deal if it invilved Crosby…..hmmmm….........just a thought.
by mrod on Jul 24, 2008 4:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why does everyone want Bay so much?
When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 24, 2008 9:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's a very, very good hitter
who isn’t about to decline due to age or get overpaid on the FA market, or both. There just aren’t too many out there this applies to. A lot of Blake, Garko “slight upgrades” and Teixeira, Burrell “overpay if you want them” options.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jul 24, 2008 9:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
do want to trade for him for 2009 exclusively?
The next contract he gets (after 2009) will include an overpayment for past performance.
The 2009 A's draft pick... getting higher every game.
by rebus on Jul 24, 2008 9:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
We'd have to re-sign to get enough value
But we’d be getting early-30s years instead of mid-late 30s years.
by nevermoor on Jul 24, 2008 9:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
is he magically not going to get a 7 year deal?
The 2009 A's draft pick... getting higher every game.
by rebus on Jul 24, 2008 9:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would only trade for him if an extension
was planned that would avoid FA altogether. Then you’re basically paying for current performance and offering security as the trade-off for not testing the FA market.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jul 24, 2008 9:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why would Bay sign less than a six year deal this offseason rather
than go for a five year deal at free agency? Those five years would be his age 31 to 35 seasons. Do the A’s really want to spend something like $80MM for that? If so, do they also want to trade something like Anderson, Mazzaro and Carter for the privilege of first rights to negotiate?
When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 25, 2008 8:56 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I disagree that he's not about to decline
High strikeout rate plus ages 33-35 (years 3-5 of his next contract) sounds like a likely decliner to me. I wouldn’t want him beyond next year.
When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 25, 2008 8:58 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mark McGwire & Jose Canseco are available.....
I’m just saying.
Or we can reunite Tejada & Giambi.
by BillMoresi on Jul 24, 2008 10:48 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Why can't we think big?
Our payroll in 2006 was a little over 75M and the team was still turning a profit. Yes our attendance is down, but my guess is that the A’s are receiving more money in revenue sharing and can therefore justify a payroll at around 80M.
Well guess what, after all of these trades, our payroll will probably be somewhere in the neighborhood of 30M going into this year. And we’re still talking about someone like GARKO?!!
Look at the Angels/Red Sox model of success.. they’ve mixed in great veteran players over the years with their homegrown product and have dominated.
We need to do the same. Fielding a team with just promising prospects will get us nowhere. Some will flourish (Sweeney, to an extent Suzuki) while others will not (Barton, Buck). And ownership has a lot of room to add a superstar or even two to make this a really deep team.
Also, if you want to market your product and attract fans you need to give the casual fan and kids a name to cheer for. We need a BIG TIME bopper for the next 4-5 years a la Vlad Guerrero when he signed with the Angels to lead a lineup filled with youth. I’m tired of hearing names like Blake, Garko, etc. When your payroll is 75M, then it’s ok to talk about them, but when your all the way at the bottom, and ownership still refuses to open up their checkbooks, then we have a problem.
by MrAlex on Jul 24, 2008 10:49 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
OK let's explore potential HOFs before or in their primes
Evan Longoria
Alex Rodriguez
Miguel Cabrera
Josh Hamilton
David Wright
Carlos Beltran
Chase Utley
Ryan Braun
Albert Pujols
Jay Bruce
Mark Teixeira (not a HOF for me)
How would we go about getting any of these guys?
When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 24, 2008 11:10 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, how could we ever get Josh Hamilton?
Gak.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jul 24, 2008 11:17 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Woah, you're telling me Beane isn't infallible? Fire him now.
by OldhamA on Jul 24, 2008 11:23 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I actually believe Pujols might be possible in 2012 if he's limited to DH
and Beltran might be possible before that if Minaya gets fired.
When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 24, 2008 11:25 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
By 2012
We’ll have already traded Gonzalez, Sweeney, Smith, Eveland, and Suzuki..
Because they had about 1 or 2 years left on their contracts and they were going to get too expensive.. so we took on a bunch of prospects and started the rebuilding process and the cycle continues.
So even if Pujols were available, we’d pass.. unless he were DFAd and we picked him up for the prorated league minimum.
by MrAlex on Jul 24, 2008 11:31 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think Gonzalez has a chance to stay long term like Chavez, but I agree
on all those other guys. Fortunately we’ll trade them for three other guys each who will keep the team good. Also Pujols won’t come to Oakland if the team is still drawing 15K per game in a football stadium.
When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 24, 2008 11:36 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is not only silly, it's historically AND contractually inaccurate
In the 2011 season, Kurt Suzuki will be in his first arbitration year, so the same position as Street now. Same with Eveland and Sweeney. Smith will be a Super Two. Gonzalez will be making the league minimum.
As for the historically inaccurate part, the A’s did not trade Giambi, or Tejada, or Isringhausen because the team was highly competitive during their final few years. If the 2012 A’s are highly competitive the team will not be trading away players for “rebuilding”.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Jul 24, 2008 1:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Gonzalez will be making league minimum in 2011?
Why wouldn’t he be a “super two” if Smith would? His offensive numbers should be great for a CFer and he’s already rating as a plus defender (if that matters in “super two” computing – does it?). Wouldn’t he be a “super two” if anyone would?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jul 24, 2008 4:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Super Two is only about service time, not performance.
In addition, a player can be classified as a “Super Two” and be eligible for arbitration with less than three years of service. A player with at least two but less than three years of Major League service shall be eligible for salary arbitration if he has accumulated at least 86 days of service during the immediately preceding season and he ranks in the top 17 percent in total service in the class of Players who have at least two but less than three years of Major League service, however accumulated, but with at least 86 days of service accumulated during the immediately preceding season.
The 2009 A's draft pick... getting higher every game.
by rebus on Jul 24, 2008 4:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ah, thanks for the info
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jul 24, 2008 4:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
regarding Carlos Gonzalez specifically,
I don’t know, but i’m certain someone else knows better.
He was called up at the end of May, so he’s going to have more than 86 days of service time by the end of the season. I don’t know if he’ll be in the top 17 percent though.
The 2009 A's draft pick... getting higher every game.
by rebus on Jul 24, 2008 4:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The cutoff
tends to be around 2 years + 130-140 days of service. At least that’s what I few links I found said. Gonzalez will be around 120 days.
"May a nit suck Cajun geese?" wonders Red. No, we see gnu Jack Cust in a yam.
by andeux on Jul 24, 2008 4:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
that's good to know, thanks!
The 2009 A's draft pick... getting higher every game.
by rebus on Jul 24, 2008 4:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The cutoff is also something Gonzalez often misses
Last of the Ninth - Photography Site / jamesvenes.com - Blog
by Flashfire on Jul 24, 2008 4:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The cutoff is also something Jamie Kotsay often wears
Who needs competence as long as everyone smiles? @('.')@
by monkeyball on Jul 24, 2008 4:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
stop it
no fair
"It's not my fault your team's so shitty." -Steve Friend, head coach, Chabot College, to Laney College's head coach, who asked why we scored so many runs after we beat Laney 30-3 in 2006
by flipgatey3 on Jul 25, 2008 2:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well Lets See
The only one on that list that we can get is Teixeira as a FA but we would have to pay him big money which I also think is not worth it unless it’s something like 5/75 or even 6/90.. plug him at 1st Base, you have a switch hitter who hits for power, good average, excellent defender and is a switch hitter.
But the A’s wont pony up for him no matter what, even though their payroll will be under 30M.
But now imagine if they did sign him as a FA and traded for Bay (giving up 2 of their pitching prospects which we really can do because we have great depth).
You have a lineup of:
C Suzuki
1B Teixeira
2B Weeks/Cardenas/Patterson
SS Crosby (I’d take anyone else; shed his salary and put anyone else in there)
3B Chavez
OF Gonzalez
OF Sweeney
OF Bay
DH Cust/Thomas
With our pitching and that lineup = for sure division contender, borderline WS contender.
And our payroll would jump to say 60M.
Why Not? Any thoughts?
by MrAlex on Jul 24, 2008 11:22 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Next year the 2B would be Patterson
Weeks/Cardenas are not that close to MLB ready.
I also don’t think we’d keep Thomas around if we made those moves. He’d cost real money next year b/c the Jays wouldn’t be paying him.
Otherwise, this is a pretty lineup (no doubt about that). I doubt we’ll make a play for Teix, but if Barton doesn’t get his swing back in AAA then there’s a slim chance.
by nevermoor on Jul 24, 2008 11:37 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
In that scenario we could trade Buck and Barton as part of a Bay package and maybe
keep an extra pitching prospect.
When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 24, 2008 11:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Realistic?
The point is that that lineup and the payroll for fielding such a team is feasible even in Oakland. I kind of think we’re somewhat brainwashed as A’s fans and keep lowering our standards, but when your payroll is laughable at 20 – 30M, we have to expect something better.
And why not make a play for Teixeira – he’s everything and more you want from a 1B. Bay can be had for the right price. Or you can come up with another combination of two really really good hitters.
And all of this will have our payroll below 2006.
by MrAlex on Jul 24, 2008 12:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think it's realistic in that the A's can do it if they want to,, but I wouldn't
give Teixeira a mammoth contract, like 7 years $140 MM unless he could play 3B. He just isn’t an all-time great hitter. If it were Albert Pujols sure, but Teixeira seems more like Todd Helton.
When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 24, 2008 12:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If Teixeira were Todd Helton
$140M / 7 might be worth it. Helton, into his decline years has a career OPS+ of 141. Teixeira, in his prime, 131. Carlos Delgado, into his decline years, 138.
Teixeira is more like Adam Dunn or Jason Bay.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on Jul 24, 2008 12:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow. That puts it into perspective.
Although given that Teixeira doesn’t strike out as much as Dunn or Bay, he might have gentler descent.
When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 24, 2008 1:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If Teixeira only costs 5/75, Atlanta would have already extended him.
by mikev on Jul 24, 2008 12:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
10/200 is the word floated in the media
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Jul 24, 2008 1:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
And would be illegal for any California team
In California, no personal services contract can extend past 7 years.
I have no idea about other states.
by nevermoor on Jul 24, 2008 2:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Quite so
From which I infer that he will not be signed by a California team.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Jul 24, 2008 2:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If this situation were to arise
(I dunno, say the Dodgers wanted to sign A-Rod), there’s got to be a way around that, right? Like have the Frank McCourt start a corporation headquartered right on the Arizona side of Blythe or something? This wouldn’t seriously come into effect, would it?
Imagine waking up at 2 a,m. and thinking of Bobby on Greyhound somewhere in the Texas wastelands..."Does your little iddy biddy back hurt, Bobby?! Does it, you SOB?!" -Alox
by Leopold Bloom on Jul 24, 2008 4:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Unless the CBA can and does bargain out of it (which I doubt but am not sure of)
Unless McCourt moved the franchise to Arizona (or joined the Federal Government) there’s no way I know of to avoid CA labor laws for work done in CA.
by nevermoor on Jul 24, 2008 5:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Couldn't you make the argument that
a good chunk of their work is done outside the state?
Imagine waking up at 2 a,m. and thinking of Bobby on Greyhound somewhere in the Texas wastelands..."Does your little iddy biddy back hurt, Bobby?! Does it, you SOB?!" -Alox
by Leopold Bloom on Jul 24, 2008 5:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, but not their primary place of business
I think they might have to pay taxes in all the states they work (but my tax knowledge is VERY limited) but that doesn’t effect the rules governing their contract.
by nevermoor on Jul 24, 2008 5:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If I recall correctly,
there was a recent ruling requiring players to pay state taxes based on where the game is actually being played. A player who plays for team in a state without a state tax still has an advantage, it’s now not what it use to be.
"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer
by alox on Jul 25, 2008 8:37 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Assuming he also lives in that state, yes.
The requirement to pay state taxes for away games is not new, though states started cracking down on it much more in the 1990s. The “recent ruling” you have in mind is probably one of the many cases on the various details about determining how the source of state income is defined, but the general principle that a state can tax non-residents on work done in the state has been there all along.
"Dispatch knuckleheadedness with Bond-like aplomb." –74mk
by iglew on Jul 25, 2008 5:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Josh Hamilton?
Not going to make it into the HOF. I’d be surprised-ish if he even plays enough seasons.
Not that I wouldn’t like to have him as a hitter.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Jul 24, 2008 1:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ryan Braun is pretty iffy as well. A few of those guys are.
Hamilton is among the most talented of the guys on the list though. I wouldn’t be shocked if he made the HOF, or if he OD’ed tomorrow.
When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 24, 2008 9:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would be extremely surprised if any player who first entered MLB at the age of 26
has ever entered the Hall of Fame before.
Ichiro will break that, but it’s not like he was playing rookie ball until he came over.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Jul 24, 2008 10:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
and Jackie
I’m pretty sure he was past 26, but he played pro ball prior to MLB as well, albeit for a shorter time than Ichiro in Japan. Would actually be interesting to see which HoF’er was the oldest in his rookie season, excluding those who had prior non-MLB pro ball experience.
But, yeah, Hamilton seems like a long-shot to me, unless his story stays as unicornish as it has been this year.
by Eric in Atlanta on Jul 25, 2008 11:23 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dazzy Vance
He didn’t break in with Brooklyn until he was over 30.
by D O on Jul 25, 2008 1:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Outside the Box
Would the Rockies consider an big package for Troy Tulowitski
by HuskerFan on Jul 24, 2008 10:50 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Maybe, especially if they feel he's going to be injury prone
Last of the Ninth - Photography Site / jamesvenes.com - Blog
by Flashfire on Jul 24, 2008 10:52 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Love that Idea
Tulowitzki is one of the best defenders in baseball.
RIVER CATS: AAA CHAMPS!
by niallmack on Jul 24, 2008 1:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd do it via trades like the Twins and Tigers did last year. Candidates include:
Young players stuck behind a veteran:
Mat Gamel - I don’t think the Brewers would really move Hart to CF for him
Fernando Martinez - He’s the Met’s lone big time trading chip
Josh Willingham - He’s stuck behind Jacobs and Gonzalez for some reason
Jeff Clement - Stuck behind Johjima, might improve hitting at another position (3B?)
Reid Brignac - OK not a slugger but a good hitting SS, between Bartlett and Beckham
Chris Davis - OK not behind a veteran but he smells Smoak
Brandon Jones or Gorkys Hernandez - behind Francoeur, Heyward and Schafer (not veterans I know)
Kevin Kouzmanoff - Not that great, but better than what we got. Headley’s the future.
Young players having crappy years:
Lastings Milledge - I don’t think anyone wants him now
Austin Kearns - Was his previous goodness a mirage?
Andy LaRoche - I’ve seen him discussed on AN
Ian Stewart - They might trade Atkins instead. I would.
Brandon Wood - Lotsa K’s but power and decent SS defense
Jose Tabata - Having no power at 19 in AA isn’t a crime
Wladimir Balentien—Not sure what the Mariners are doing
Supplement these with veterans on their last legs—Giambi? Griffey?
Maybe sign a controversial FA—Dunn?
Supplement with Jermaine Dye 2001 types every year or two. It’s too early for Holliday or Bay this year. But next year, there’s:
Adrian Beltre
Jason Bay
Matt Holliday
Brian Giles
Vladimir Guerrero
Chipper Jones
OK those last two aren’t very likely. These guys should be cheaper to acquire next year than now.
There’s also minor league veterans like Saenz and Cust, but I don’t know anything about them.
They could also draft guys like Brett Wallace.
When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 24, 2008 10:56 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Good list...
But Willingham isnt stuck behind anyone, he has played almost every game since he came back from his injury. He definitely is a starter for them.
Bring back Hammer.
by OaktownPower on Jul 24, 2008 11:01 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oops sorry about that.
When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 24, 2008 11:03 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also Stewart should go in the "stuck behind" category, not the "crappy year" one
When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 24, 2008 11:30 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fernando Martinez isn't stuck behind a vet
He’s 19 years old at AA. Before anyone says Carlos Beltran and CF, FMart is a CF the way Ryan Garko is the elite middle of the order hitter the A’s want to build around.
Austins Kearns is no longer young. He’s 28 this season; nor is he cheap, $5M this season, $8M next. He’s an overrated bust.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on Jul 24, 2008 11:39 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ya I didn't have a good category for Fernando.
It’s just that the Mets are impatient to win during the Wright – Reyes – Beltran – Santana years and he could be available earlier than he otherwise would be.
When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 24, 2008 12:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Minaya reportedly LOVES him
And has gone on the record saying that he wants to avoid making 4 for 1 trades, and also of giving up FMart.
I could see him giving him up for someone like Bay, a guy who will help now, and next season, and could be signed to a long term deal. I don’t see anyone on the A’s as that calibre of player.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on Jul 24, 2008 12:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I guess the Mets might consider Cahill or Anderson
if their non-Johan starters were crappy in a year or two.
When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 24, 2008 12:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Prospects are a different matter
Since you referenced the Mets desire to win now, I was just referring to the A’s MLB players.
As for the Mets future pitching, who knows? Perez and Martinez are both FAs after this season. OTOH, it’s not as if they have gotten much out of Pedro the past season and a half, and they will have his money off the books, and available to spend. This offseason, with CC, among others, available, is probably going to be one of the best recent offseasons to go FA pitcher buying. Also, Pelfrey is starting to show some progress, after pretty much everyone gave up on him.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on Jul 24, 2008 12:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ya the A's don't match up with the Mets at all really, outside of a three way.
When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 24, 2008 1:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The same has been said of me
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jul 24, 2008 1:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
What about Ryan Zimmerman?
Other than the fact that he appears to be getting steadily worse every season? (Maybe that’s just the effect of playing for the Nationals every year?)
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jul 24, 2008 11:07 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
He's having a crappy year, but would you trade Cahill and Anderson plus for him?
I don’t think his trade value is all that much lower than a year ago.
When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 24, 2008 11:12 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Garko? Seriously?
The guy has a 688 ops this year and for that you want to trade a good young closer plus our fourth and fifth best arms (one who is an extremely good bet to be a solid mid rotation starter and one who has the potential to be either a front of the line starter if he can harness his controll or a dominating reliever) in the system. It would be interesting to examine a Laporta, Josh Rodriguez a AA shortstop package for some of our minor league talent.
Some of the most violent things I’ve ever seen were at Raiders games. And I’ve been to jail. - leopold bloom
by designatedforassignment on Jul 24, 2008 11:09 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
That just plays into my thinking -
he’s only a .688 OPS guy this year. Buy low, sell high.
Theoretically, if the Indians would do it, would you trade Street, Crosby, Mazzaro for Garko, Peralta, Laporta? Or Street and Mazzaro for Garko and Laporta? Yes please, right? So it’s not that the trade idea is lopsided in the Indians’ favor, it’s that the last piece is critical. That’s the negotiation part.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jul 24, 2008 11:21 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If we (being an AN poster makes me an A now) could have gotten LaPorta, why
not from the Brewers? Why would the Indians trade Sabathia for someone they didn’t really want? He would probably be really expensive—Shapiro would probably ask for the moon and not worry if he didn’t get it.
When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 24, 2008 11:33 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Street and Mazzaro for Garko and Laporta
I would probably do that deal with the desire to flip garko to a contender. Or screw it just Laporta for street would be much more ameniable to my desires
Some of the most violent things I’ve ever seen were at Raiders games. And I’ve been to jail. - leopold bloom
by designatedforassignment on Jul 24, 2008 12:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If the Brewers wouldn't trade LaPorta for Street, when their pen sucks, why would the Indians?
When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 24, 2008 12:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
But Street and Mazzaro or Simmons would be a good fit
for the Indians’ needs, in exchange for Laporta – a closer through at least 2010 and a good pitching prospect. Mazzaro gives more upside, but Simmons is closer and more polished. And if the A’s want to pick up a legit hitter or hitting prospect, and don’t want to part with Cahill/Anderson, then they have to be willing to part with Street and Mazzaro or Simmons.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jul 24, 2008 12:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Id much rather gice up Mazzaro than Simmons
Some of the most violent things I’ve ever seen were at Raiders games. And I’ve been to jail. - leopold bloom
by designatedforassignment on Jul 24, 2008 12:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Same here - I think Simmons
will be anywhere from a “poor man’s Blanton” to a “good Blanton,” i.e., probably a solid #3 starter who gives you innings and generally gives you a chance to win.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jul 24, 2008 12:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why would the Indians trade LaPorta for any man's Blanton?
Right now they see an offense anchored by Sizemore and LaPorta. How is getting Simmons or Mazzaro going to improve them? They’re pretty good at getting Paul Byrds and Kevin Millwoods for the middle of their rotation. They don’t need to give up LaPorta for that. I wouldn’t even do it for Cahill and Simmons. Maybe for Cahill and Anderson plus Donaldson or something.
When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 24, 2008 1:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
C'mon - how much are you gonna give up
for a guy whose name is “The Door”?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jul 24, 2008 1:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah, but if he goes in the crapper ... his nickname becomes LaPortaPotty
Who needs competence as long as everyone smiles? @('.')@
by monkeyball on Jul 24, 2008 2:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
fair point
but is Mazzaro > Garko? I don’t think so. TINSTAPP. I didn’t propose the deal but I really doubt that that deal would be done from an Cle prospective.
Thats why i suggested a trade for Laporta and Rodriguez a masher and a shortstop and was hoping to see who we would need to pull that down.
Some of the most violent things I’ve ever seen were at Raiders games. And I’ve been to jail. - leopold bloom
by designatedforassignment on Jul 24, 2008 12:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's not that Mazzaro is that valuable. It's that Garko isn't at all valuable.
When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 24, 2008 1:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Right
but to suggest a AA pitching prospect is more valuable than a servicable major leaguer who has some breakout potential is kinda silly.
Some of the most violent things I’ve ever seen were at Raiders games. And I’ve been to jail. - leopold bloom
by designatedforassignment on Jul 24, 2008 9:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Garko is not serviceable and does not have breakout potential.
When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 24, 2008 9:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mazzaro isn't either
he is a AA prospect who may never make it to the majors and is having a year that far exceeds his production in previous minor league seasons
Some of the most violent things I’ve ever seen were at Raiders games. And I’ve been to jail. - leopold bloom
by designatedforassignment on Jul 24, 2008 9:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I just don't quite agree on Garko
He did have a breakout year last season at age 26, and this year he is part of a team-wide collapse. But he is still young, he has been good before, and whether he’ll bounce back to last year’s form or stay at this year’s form is unknown. But I wouldn’t be so sure it will be the latter and I think he is more than “serviceable,” personally – his OPS as a rookie was .829 and then he surpassed that his second year.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jul 24, 2008 9:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
So neither one is likely to make an impact?
Sounds like a fair, but unimportant deal then.
When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 25, 2008 9:00 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sounds about right
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jul 25, 2008 9:37 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
But one that COULD work out great
for either team – great for the A’s if Garko reverts to 2007 production, great for the Indians if Mazzaro reaches his potential.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jul 25, 2008 9:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jason Bay would've been a lot easier to get before Huntington took over
Now, Beane will actually have to give up quality prospects, and I’m not sure that’s a great idea. He’ll be 30 next season, so even if you can give him a long extension, do you? As much as I like JayRayBay, I’m just not sure he’s worth the prospects and the contract extension he’d have to get.
http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/
by thejd44 on Jul 24, 2008 11:21 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Teixiera..
He just turned 28. He’s a “big time” bat that we need. He doesn’t break down.
Let’s sign him for 6 years, $110 million. Just do it. Now is the time to get that glue that holds the linup together. It’ll make the hitters before and after him much better.
"I'm not going to buy my kids an encyclopedia. Let them walk to school like I did." -Yogi Berra
by brenarlo on Jul 24, 2008 11:32 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Boras is asking for
a contract in the region of $200M / 10.
And he’s not a better hitter than Bay or Adam Dunn.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on Jul 24, 2008 11:41 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He can't have 10 years
Labor laws prohibit a contract that long in most states.
I think the CA max is 6 or 7
by nevermoor on Jul 24, 2008 11:43 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
ARod says hi?
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on Jul 24, 2008 11:45 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
ARod never signed a contract under California Law
And the answer is 7 years.
by nevermoor on Jul 24, 2008 12:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, Arod did sign a 10 year contract
in NY. So at the very least, Teixeira CAN have a 10 year contract in NY. Where there are 2 very rich teams possibly willing to sign him.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on Jul 24, 2008 12:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Didnt Manny sign a really long deal and same for Mike Hampton?
by A'sfaninNC on Jul 24, 2008 3:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, but we're talking about California contracts here
"The painting was a gift, Todd. I'm taking it with me." -Wedding Crashers
by notsellingjeans on Jul 24, 2008 11:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
imagine zito on a 10 yr contract
sometimes, you protect the teams from being too stupid to themselves. Imagine Zito on a 10 year contract… his fastball velocity might be down to 39 mph by the time all was said and done.
by rollierollieOxenfree on Jul 25, 2008 3:37 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think Zito still has a decent chance at a Jamie Moyer end to his career.
When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 25, 2008 9:01 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Moyer has about 95th percentile command,
while Zito has about 30th percentile command. “Senator, you’re no Jamie Moyer.”
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jul 25, 2008 9:40 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Moyer only became a control artist at 30 years old
BB/BFP
Moyer Age 23-28 - 9.2%
Moyer Age 30 thru today (age 45) - 6.1%
Zito Career thru today (age 30)—9.6%
Moyer was not a good pitcher when I saw him with the Cubs. He went back to the minors at age 29, reinvented himself, and returned as a control artist at age 30.
Zito is durable and smart. Given a chance to reinvent himself he could reduce his walks. Of course he may not be able to do that, but he does have a “decent chance” to do it.
When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 25, 2008 12:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I guess - Moyer is kind of a "freak of nature"
in his late development, ability to thrive with really two pitches (one of which is a below-average fastball), and tremendous “staying power” into his mid-40s.
Whereas Zito is just kind of a freak.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jul 25, 2008 12:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
No Way
There’s no way he gets $200 – not even close. I think he can be had for 6/108. Or in the A’s case, 7/126.
by MrAlex on Jul 24, 2008 12:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Carlos Lee signed
a 6 year $100M contract in 2007. Lee is worse player than Teixeira. Even if you disregard inflation, Lee was 31 at the time, Teixeira will be 29.
There are a whole bunch of teams that could be potentially looking for a 1b next season. Off the top of my head: Mets, Yanks, Mariners, Giants. All rich teams with money to spend.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on Jul 24, 2008 12:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I can easily see the Yankees or Mets signing him for 7/$140
or even 8/$160 like Manny got.
When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 24, 2008 12:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's the problem with bidding for FAs -
It only takes one team to drive up the price. Boras is the agent and the Yankees want a 1Bman. You can do the Math from there.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jul 24, 2008 12:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Teixeira isn't nearly as good a hitter as Manny,
but he’s the best available FA in a year when the Mets and Yankees both need a 1B. Maybe the Angels would be interested too. He’s almost certain to be a bad deal.
When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 24, 2008 1:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Beane's history
Beane hasn’t exactly lit it up when signing contracts for FAs. Chavey, Dye, Kotsay, Rhodes, Loiza.
I think that Anderson and Cahill have to be untouchable, and possibly Gio as well. I’d be willing to part with Eveland or Smith – eventhough I like them both – and give it some MLB qualified talent to sweeten the pot.
Well, I suggest we shoot for:
Bay
Naday
LaPortra
Upton
It's just more exciting with Billy Beane running the team.
by ru155 on Jul 24, 2008 11:45 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
maybe Votto as well
It's just more exciting with Billy Beane running the team.
by ru155 on Jul 24, 2008 11:46 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would really like a deal for Votto. I will be a good to great number 3-4 hitter for a long time
in a year or two
by A'sfaninNC on Jul 24, 2008 3:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Apparently they have interest in Street -
Is there any deal that doesn’t include Cahill or Anderson that could land Votto? If so, what do folks think it might be?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jul 24, 2008 4:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
but they just signed Cordero
to a four-year, $46 million contract in November?
by scatterbrian on Jul 24, 2008 4:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
All that proves is that they're silly
by nevermoor on Jul 24, 2008 4:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
true
and they’ve had a weird reliever fetish for a few years now….
by scatterbrian on Jul 24, 2008 4:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Upton, what the hell are you talking about?
Upton is in a contest with A’Rod to see who can sign the biggest contract ever
by HarbirD on Jul 24, 2008 8:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Tex, Bay, Burrell
Tex will sign for six years and 120 million at least. I wouldn’t be comfortable with that, even for a .900 OPS at first base.
If Carlos Lee got a 100 million, Burrell will get as much or more, thanks to inflation. Can Burrell hit at a dominant level in the AL? A few years ago his current contract looked a horrible mistake and he was sputtering badly – and that was in the NL and a hitter’s haven. Bay is also a better athlete than he is, so I think Bay would age better.
To me Bay is the most attractive of the three because he meets a lot of criteria: LF, decent defender, hits righty, but best of all…maybe he gives the team a chance to win in ‘09.
The pessimistic thought is that Bay won’t hit as well in the AL, which is very possible. Look at MCab.
"The painting was a gift, Todd. I'm taking it with me." -Wedding Crashers
by notsellingjeans on Jul 24, 2008 11:48 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
The pessimistic thought
Is that no one will hit will in Oakland …EVER.
by GusanoQuemador on Jul 24, 2008 11:53 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, but the special ones will
Citing Giambi, Jason and Tejada, Miguel.
That’s why I don’t think we should focus on marginal upgrades (i.e. the Garko types) but rather the super-stars (Bay/Dunn/etc.)
by nevermoor on Jul 24, 2008 12:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If Bay and Dunn are superstars, what are Pujols and A-Rod?
When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 24, 2008 12:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Absolute GODS
Last of the Ninth - Photography Site / jamesvenes.com - Blog
by Flashfire on Jul 24, 2008 12:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
OK then why are we settling for mere superstars?
When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 24, 2008 12:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Because we have an inferiority complex. Just ask Giants fans.
Last of the Ninth - Photography Site / jamesvenes.com - Blog
by Flashfire on Jul 24, 2008 12:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well
A-Rod is someone with a real chance at being the best hitter in MLB history (stats-wise). Pujols is always in the discussion for #1 pick in fantasy leagues.
They’re obviously superstars, but that doesn’t mean that Dunn/Bay aren’t also in that category.
by nevermoor on Jul 24, 2008 2:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
A-Rod
isn’t even really close to the best hitter in MLB history. He’s around 40th on the career OPS+ list. Bonds is 3rd, Pujols 9th. Other active players ahead of him in that category are Thomas, Manny Ramirez, and Thome.
But f you’re talking about overall value, including defense, then he may be one of the 10 or so best position players of all time.
"May a nit suck Cajun geese?" wonders Red. No, we see gnu Jack Cust in a yam.
by andeux on Jul 24, 2008 2:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
"Has a chance to be"
If he keeps on keeping on he’ll have the most HR ever, along with great D and an OPS+ north of 150.
I don’t know that he’ll ever be Bonds (in part because he’ll definitely never get as many IBB), but he also is less likely to roid.
by nevermoor on Jul 24, 2008 3:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Somehow, I doubt A-Rod's hands are entirely clean
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Jul 24, 2008 3:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe, Maybe not
But it’s FAR less likely than that Bonds roided. He’s one of very few that I feel certain did. In the abstract I think a ton of people did, but there are few specific cases where the evidence is worth a damn. Bonds is one of those.
by nevermoor on Jul 24, 2008 3:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I suspect A-Rod is a compulsive hand-washer,
so his hands may be entirely clean.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jul 24, 2008 4:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
His lips remain purple.
Imagine waking up at 2 a,m. and thinking of Bobby on Greyhound somewhere in the Texas wastelands..."Does your little iddy biddy back hurt, Bobby?! Does it, you SOB?!" -Alox
by Leopold Bloom on Jul 24, 2008 4:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
agreed
We need an elite hitter. The funny thing is that if we would have re-signed Giambi, thats exactly what we wouldn’t have got.
by GusanoQuemador on Jul 24, 2008 12:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fair point
But he had all kinds of roid/odd health issues. Tejada would have been one.
by nevermoor on Jul 24, 2008 2:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hindsight is 20/20
At the time Giambi & Tejada both looked like elite hitters in the making.
by GusanoQuemador on Jul 24, 2008 2:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
My question, nevermoor - basically the true premise of the post - is
are you advocating the A’s part with Cahill/Anderson to go ahead and get Bay (rather than someone less awesome or less sure a thing)? Or how do you propose the A’s land what they need?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jul 24, 2008 12:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I say we toss Eveland or Smith + Street or something
It's just more exciting with Billy Beane running the team.