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Beane's Challenge: HOW to Add A Hitter?

It is no simple question. Everyone from Billy to opposing pitchers know that the A's need a middle-of-the-order bat added to the current configuration, before the A's are back in the "contention conversation," and I believe the A's need to avoid the Casey Blakes who are "ok but not special" and the Frank Thomases who are "not part of the 2010 conversation," and find a way to add a hitter who can anchor the team through at least the 2009-2012 seasons.

But when you look at the available "too legit to quit" hitters Oakland could target, they tend to have qualities that make them poor targets:

Past Their Prime: For Pat Burrell, on the free agent market you will pay too much for years in Burrell's mid-to-late 30s. That is almost never a good idea. I would love to add Troy Glaus and figure out where to play whom later, but again Glaus is 32 and exiting the years when players tend to be most productive and healthy.

Very Costly In Talent To Acquire: Jason Bay seems like the closest thing to an ideal fit, but if the Pirates are smart (and GMs aren't as dumb as you think as often as you think), they will not let their star player go without getting a return that includes players like Trevor Cahill, Brett Anderson, Henry Rodriguez, Kurt Suzuki, Ryan Sweeney - in other words, precisely the guys the A's are counting on to make the team special over these coming years. Trouble is, teams that aren't close to winning want Cahill and Anderson and Rodriguez, not Street and Ellis, and teams close to winning will not be eager to trade their cleanup hitter, now or this Winter, for Oakland's 4th and 5th best young pitching prospects.

So what is the right approach for Beane to take to try to secure a legitimate hitter who could be productive for the next four years? Personally, I think Cahill and Anderson should be untouchable, even in the tempting quest to finally upgrade this frustratingly inept offense. Starting pitching is the cornerstone of success, and those two seem like as close to "sure things" to develop into solid, if not front-end, major league starters. I tend to think the one trade chip Oakland might entertain is Henry Rodriguez, a guy whose tremendous upside makes him incredibly appealing to teams but with whom the A's, thanks to the depth of having Cahill and Anderson, could afford to part. Rodriguez, packaged with James Simmons or Vince Mazzaro, might help fetch you a worthy major league ready, or mid-to-late 20s, hitter for the middle of the lineup.

But who? Who is the right hitter and what team is the right trading partner, and does the right player happen to play for the right team? For some reason, the name that keeps popping back into my mind is Ryan Garko, a right-handed hitter who is 27, could bat 4th in the A's lineup, plays for a team (Cleveland) that is not going to win this season, and happens to be having a down year. He also happens to play 1B, not SS or 3B or LF - oh well - and acquiring a 1B for the long-term would put Daric Barton's future with Oakland in question.

But if Rodriguez, Simmons, Mazzaro, Street (great fit for Cleveland, IMO), and maybe Barton himself were put into the "let's find a deal" conversation for Garko, or for Garko plus __, I would have to think Cleveland would be all ears. Is there a deal there, maybe for the right two of those five A's, that might be good for both teams?

And if it's not Garko - and that's just one of a zillion hypothetical possibilities - how should the A's go about landing the right guy to bat 4th from 2009-2012, so that Oakland can get back to the business of rebuilding a team that can score enough to win more baseball games than the Angels do?

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Whew!

Relief….I thought the headline read “How to add a HITLER”

"the A's need more quality preembreetive pitching" ~monkeyball

by OptimistPrime on Jul 24, 2008 10:14 AM PDT   0 recs

I see that hairstyle making a comeback

When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!

by WaddellCanseco on Jul 24, 2008 10:16 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Crushing defeat at hands of foes, check

Fiscal crisis, check
Resentment at outside world, check
Radical restructuring of system, check
Emphasis on youth, check
Invasion of neighboring territories, check

Uh-oh …

Who needs competence as long as everyone smiles? @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jul 24, 2008 10:45 AM PDT to parent up   1 recs

Just wait

until the A’s start signing the 94 Scott Hatteberg clones from Brazil.

"May a nit suck Cajun geese?" wonders Red. No, we see gnu Jack Cust in a yam.

by andeux on Jul 24, 2008 10:56 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

QOTM

"Life is a horizontal fall" -Jean Cocteau

by King Richard on Jul 24, 2008 11:18 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

turns out we drafted this Austrian prospect named Schicklgruber ...

... but he used his friend’s birth certificate to claim he was two years younger …

Who needs competence as long as everyone smiles? @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jul 25, 2008 9:37 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I think with all the money we aren't spending, a FA is the best bet

My problem with people like Garko is that they aren’t likely to ever truly dominate, and it’s hard to imagine winning a WS without one great hitter in there somewhere.

I’d love to see us make a real run at someone like Dunn (instead of Burrell) in Free Agency. If we’re trading, I agree with you that Bay is a great one to target. He may cost less in the off-season because he’ll only have 1 year left on his contract.

by nevermoor on Jul 24, 2008 10:24 AM PDT   0 recs

Garko?

I’d much rather try to get either an elite MLB bat, Holliday / Bay, or a young prospect who projects as an elite bat, Fernando Martinez for example, yes by giving up some young pitching depth, than giving up even mid tier prospects for Garko.

Garko’s career OPS+ is 105. His career high is 117. Jack Cust’s OPS+ this year is 122. Garko is not better than Cust offensively. Defensively, Garko is another 1b / DH type. Beane could have easily gotten a Garko type, if he had signed Russ Branyan, instead of Emil Brown. Or Josh Phelps instead of Emil Brown.

Why give up any worthwhile prospects, especially Henry Rodriguez for him? If you’re going to trade worthwhile prospects, you might as well go all in, and get back an elite hitter.

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on Jul 24, 2008 10:30 AM PDT   0 recs

Holliday is sketchy

His stats away from Coors are far from elite.

The last three years:
Home:.370/.430/.676 HR:59
Road:.281/.343/.466 HR:30

He’s still an upgrade, but I wouldn’t move anything too valuable for him.

"If everything seems to be going well, you have obviously overlooked something."

by RIPHalsey on Jul 24, 2008 10:48 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I know his road stats

I just don’t put much emphasis on road stats. Also, while his D has nothing to do with whether he’s an elite bat, his D is very very good.

Regardless, the Rockies’ asking price for him is ridonkulous. They asked the Mets for Carlos Beltran and Fernando Martinez. They asked the Angels for Kendrick and Adenhart and either of Santana or Saunders.

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on Jul 24, 2008 11:07 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Well, the road stats are half his games and we all know what an aberration Coors Field is

The only other place I think even compares to that is Arlington.

If the Rockies are asking for stuff like that, though, they’re not going to get takers for Holliday.

Last of the Ninth - Photography Site / jamesvenes.com - Blog

by Flashfire on Jul 24, 2008 11:19 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I wonder if that's about where he'll top out or not.

Probably in the Coliseum, at least.

Still, Colorado’s asking price is enough for me to give a big “HELL NO!” to a deal for Holliday. With what they’re asking for, you’d think he was the next Pujols no matter where he played.

Last of the Ninth - Photography Site / jamesvenes.com - Blog

by Flashfire on Jul 24, 2008 11:25 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

True

I’d much rather have Bay, since Pittsburgh is a tough hitting situation too.

by nevermoor on Jul 24, 2008 11:26 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Yes, the road stats are HALF his games.

By looking at only road stats, you are throwing out HALF the sample.

Why not just look at park adjusted numbers like EQA, OPS+, Batting Runs?

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on Jul 24, 2008 11:24 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

His road stats are going to be much more in line with what you can expect with him...

...when he’s playing for a team that doesn’t have half their games in Coors Field.

Last of the Ninth - Photography Site / jamesvenes.com - Blog

by Flashfire on Jul 24, 2008 11:26 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Most players, no most athletes

perform better at home. If you want to take away the homefield advantage from Holliday, then you need to take away the home field advantage from all the players you’re comparing him to.

At which point, you’ll have thrown away ridiculous amounts of data.

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on Jul 24, 2008 11:29 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

No, not really

What you seem to be missing is how great an impact Coors Field has on people who get to play half their seasons in that place. Even with the humidor, it is unlike any other ballpark in the Majors. That is a HUGE factor.

I wouldn’t say anyone who bats in the Coliseum has a big home field advantage by having half their games there, would you? That could almost be the reverse of the Holliday stuff.

I don’t know what the general standard of comparison is, but I would imagine most solid players are within roughly .100 OPS points of their home/away totals, just to throw a number out there. Since we’re talking about Jason Bay in here, let’s take a quick look at him:

2008 Home: .302/.373/.604/.977
2008 Away: .273/.393/.455/.848

2007 Home: .259/.334/.388/.722
2007 Away: .237/.321/.445/.766

2006 Home: .297/.426/.504/.930
2006 Away: .276/.367/.558/.925

2005 Home: .271/.395/.465/.860
2005 Away: .337/.408/.644/1.052

I don’t know what made him so much better on the road in 2005 but Bay’s overall numbers both home and away seem fairly close. That’s the mark of a good, consistent hitter. 2006 was especially close but he had better power numbers on the road. This year, it’s flipped a bit to better home numbers. Overall, that tells me that Bay is someone who can be counted on to give you solid production no matter where he’s playing. At the same time, you could probably expect some time to get used to the American League if he comes over here.

In the end, I’m not throwing out anything Holliday is doing because he performs better at home than on the road. I’m discounting some of what Holliday does at home because of where home is.

Last of the Ninth - Photography Site / jamesvenes.com - Blog

by Flashfire on Jul 24, 2008 11:42 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I get a little tired of hearing about how

“but so-and-so would only OPS .770 playing half their games in Oakland.” EVERY hitter on both teams will suffer drop-offs for this effect. So who cares? A better hitter is a better hitter anywhere – the exact numbers just change.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 24, 2008 11:47 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

But if Holliday can OPS .950 at Coors,

and that’s “well above league average,” and he can OPS .800 at the Coliseum – and that’s well above league average – is it a bad use of money to pay him as a “well above league average” hitter?

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 24, 2008 11:52 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Good point - that's worth a lot to me

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 24, 2008 12:36 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

This is a very important point

and I’m glad you pointed it out.

Not that the A’s have a snowball’s chance in hell of acquiring Holliday, of course.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 24, 2008 1:16 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

but the .950 OPS has to be seen in the context of coors

Holliday’s value is based on however above average for coors Holliday is. So the problem is that the Rockies are demanding what a team would for a .950 OPS hitting player. That price isn’t ok for a coors hitter, but would be ok if that number was attained in a more neutral park. For example, I’d rather have someone who hit .825 OPS in Petco than Holliday. (not that such a person necessarily exists or is available)

by ohmangoAs on Jul 24, 2008 1:28 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Agreed - the problem is if the Rockies

ask ”.950 OPS” value for Holliday, not if he OPSs .800 with Oakland.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 24, 2008 1:30 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

The trade our MLB pitchers then

Our pitcher will get the bump for pitching in Oakland Coliseum, and we can sell them as 3.5 ERA guys instead 4.0 ERA guys, and even out the value bias

by asfansince1989 on Jul 24, 2008 2:08 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

We do. Constantly

And that’s why we got so much value for Blanton

by nevermoor on Jul 24, 2008 2:23 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I don't believe that other teams are so ignorant

so as not to be able to factor in park effect when trading for a player. There is a large body of Blanton’s work – almost as large as his body – on the road for his career. And park adjusted stats are not hard to come by.

I’m thinking the Phillies knew exactly what they were trading for, and feel Blanton can win for them if he just reverts back to doing what he did, on average, for the first 3.4 seasons of his 3.6 year career.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 24, 2008 4:07 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Buzzkill

I think we got a ton for him (and part of my rationalization is that his ERA looks a lot better than his EqERA even though instinctively the Phillies should have looked at the latter)

by nevermoor on Jul 24, 2008 4:10 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

If you're "discounting" some of what Hollidy does at home

why not use a park adjustment? As opposed to just citing road stats.

And one player, Jason Bay, doesn’t prove anything.

The problem with trying to apply a “general” standard of comparison, or using a specific player like Bay, is that no one has any idea what are the factors that cause differences in home road performances. Furthermore, no one has any clue how much or little different factors affect different players. Some players might benefit more by sleeping on their own beds. Others, not at all.

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on Jul 24, 2008 11:58 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

It's not useful to discount home stats, even in Coors

because as rfloh is saying, you get a lot more certainty when you DOUBLE your sample size, even if the data is slightly skewed. Especially if you can quantify the amount that the the data would likely be skewed.

So even if Coors has a 10% impact on OPS, the fact that:

1) including Coors stats doubles your sample, and
2) We can quantify, in general, how much impact Coors would have

means that the best thing to do is to include his Coors stats and adjust them accordingly.

by sardonic on Jul 24, 2008 12:07 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

statistically speaking

your confidence bounds goes down as square root of your sample size. If you double your sample size, you reduce your uncertainty by 30%

by asfansince1989 on Jul 24, 2008 2:10 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

like, say, Mark Ellis?

Who needs competence as long as everyone smiles? @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jul 24, 2008 11:49 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

As a group

players hit better at home (all parks) than on the road. In the case of a pitchers park like the Coliseum this effect may be masked by the park effect, and in the case of an extreme hitters park like in Colorado it will be enhanced. Also, 3 of the 4 other parks in the NL West are unfavorable to hitters. Using park-adjusted numbers (like OPS+ or EqA) gives a better estimate of how good a hitter is than simply throwing out home numbers and using only road numbers.

Incidentally, for his career, Ellis has hit .258/.336/.409 in the Coliseum and .275/.341/.410 on the road

"May a nit suck Cajun geese?" wonders Red. No, we see gnu Jack Cust in a yam.

by andeux on Jul 24, 2008 12:03 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

That .001 in slugging has just KILLED us at home.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 24, 2008 12:37 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I want splits for pre-Briggs and post-Briggs

"Dispatch knuckleheadedness with Bond-like aplomb." –74mk

by iglew on Jul 24, 2008 1:50 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Historically, that' s not true

Players perform better than their Rockie road stats before and after they’re on that team. No one’s really sure why that is. My impression is that hitters make some sort of swing adjustment to play in Colorado and can’t turn it off when they’re on the road.

"[Greg] Vaughn is in a funk so deep, George Clinton wearing a miner's helmet couldn't find him."
- Jim Baker, ESPN.com, May 2002

by achiappanza on Jul 30, 2008 2:10 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

need to normalize

I’d believe the “shock value” (pun) of seeing Holiday’s reduced value due to his splits more if I saw this relative to all other players’ home/away splits, including that of just the Rockies’. Without such data, this is unfixed data, and you could just conclude that the guy doesn’t like traveling? (thus he’s in MLB, not the NBA…)

by rollierollieOxenfree on Jul 25, 2008 3:22 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I don't know

I don’t think we need to add 170 more K’s to the lineup. You certainly could not have Dunn and Cust in the same lineup.

I do like the mammoth blasts that he hits

by Trainman on Jul 24, 2008 10:31 AM PDT   0 recs

I see Cust as a ticking collapse candidate. How much longer do you see him being effective?

(expecting “he already sucks” responses)

When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!

by WaddellCanseco on Jul 24, 2008 11:18 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

If The A's had an offense of all Custs and Dunns

It would set the major league record for runs scored by a large margin. I’d be thrille dto have them both in the same lineup.

by GusanoQuemador on Jul 24, 2008 11:34 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

One of the two is DH

and I’ll eat some strikeouts for a .900+ OPS guy any day of the week.

by nevermoor on Jul 24, 2008 11:44 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I want to see a Cust - Dunn keystone combo.

Cust vs Crosby…..hmmm….

When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!

by WaddellCanseco on Jul 24, 2008 11:47 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I'd expect Dunn to last a lot longer than Cust as a productive player.

The Adam Jack LF – DH alternator would probably only last through next year. Maybe the year after.

When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!

by WaddellCanseco on Jul 24, 2008 11:46 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

How do they compare when you park adjust?

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 24, 2008 11:48 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

THINGS MY FATHER DOES!!!!!!

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 24, 2008 11:52 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Dunn 131 Career OPS+, Cust 127

I guess park effects do matter

When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!

by WaddellCanseco on Jul 24, 2008 11:56 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

There's not a team out there

That wouldn’t love to have a Cust & Dunn combo in the middle of their lineup. If you put Dunn in front of Cust, all those solo shots that everyone complains about from Cust turn into 2 run home runs. I’m drooling

by GusanoQuemador on Jul 24, 2008 12:05 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

What would it take to sign Dunn?

4 years $50MM? I don’t think I’d do that. I would do three years though.

When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!

by WaddellCanseco on Jul 24, 2008 12:10 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

We don't need..

More guys that just walk or strikeout. I give you that he will hit 35 HR but that’s not exactly what we need. We need to sprinkle in a few High OBP guys with a couple of mashers that can bring them in with one or two speedy guys.

by MrAlex on Jul 24, 2008 12:18 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Dunn has a high OBP and a is a masher.

Our speedies of the future are Weeks, Cardenas, Patterson, and Buck. Dunn would be a great asset to the lineup, but he seems like someone who’d decline quickly.

When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!

by WaddellCanseco on Jul 24, 2008 12:28 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Man on 3rd, Less than 2 outs

Dunn & Cust suck in those situations. I think Dunn went 2+ years w/o a Sacrafice Fly.

Cust & Dunn are terrible situation hitters. If you sign Dunn, you gotta get rid of Cust. Too many blackholes in the lineup. Baserunners will never be on the move w/ 2 strikes for fear of the strike ‘em out, throw ‘em out. Station to Station baseball sucks.

by Colorado Fan on Jul 24, 2008 2:06 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

OK, so assuming you're right (you aren't, BTW, but whatever)

Cust will suck when Dunn hits a triple.

I haven’t looked but I’m going to guess that Adam Dunn is not exactly a triples specialist.

Also, Cust has 9 sac flies in the last 2 seasons.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 24, 2008 2:30 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

What does Dunn hitting a triple have to do with this?

Both of them can be up in situations Colorado Fan pointed out and they hardly require Dunn tripling to get to that point.

Last of the Ninth - Photography Site / jamesvenes.com - Blog

by Flashfire on Jul 24, 2008 2:35 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Point is,

they’re LESS likely to end up in that situation than your average hitter.

Put those two back to back and the most likely scenarios, by far, for the second guy are either “no one on” or “a guy on first.” Of course, that’s really true for everyone, which is one of the 902374 reasons why obsessing over someone’s performance in narrow situations is a recipe for misevaluating players.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 24, 2008 2:41 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Absofragginlutely

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 24, 2008 1:19 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

That's assuming one or both don't strike out, which is probably more likely.

Not saying I wouldn’t take Dunn here but it’s silly to assume that they’ll both be mashing all the time.

Last of the Ninth - Photography Site / jamesvenes.com - Blog

by Flashfire on Jul 24, 2008 12:15 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Yeah but they get at least 3 attempts a game

4-5 if we stop starting 3 different DFAs

by nevermoor on Jul 24, 2008 12:16 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

They don't need to mash all the time

Even mashing every 20 plate appearances would result in a ton of runs if you have a guy in front of you getting on base as much as Dunn does.

by GusanoQuemador on Jul 24, 2008 12:33 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs