Four hours and forty-five minutes of suck: Yankees 4, A's 3 (12)
by monkeyball on Jul 19, 2008 4:01 PM PDT
177 comments
Don't get me wrong -- the game was not lost right there. (It was lost when Street gave up the tying run in the bottom of the 9th, consigning the A's to either lose right then and there, or to go to extras with no offense of which to speak and Lenny DiNardo as the "second starter" for as far as he could throw in extras.) But it was a real dunderheaded minimizing-the-percentages decision, at the tail end of a tight game where luck and little decisions like this actually make a difference. Inexplicable.
And you really can't blame DiNardo for the result in the bottom of the 12th -- even for loading the bases and hitting Molina to nudge in the losing run. Lenny is what he is ... and a couple innings against the Yankees for what Lenny is is gonna result in a bunch of baserunners and one or two crossing the plate sooner or later.
Heck, Sean Gallagher is not what Lenny DiNardo is, and his 5 innings against the Yankees resulted in a whole lot of baserunners and two crossing the plate.
Gallagher really didn't look that bad; downright impressive at times, in fact -- such as when he K'ed Jeter, Abreu, and A-Rod to escape the tortuous 2nd (when the feeble bottom of the Yanks' order knocked in those 2 runs). The difference between his first start for the A's and this one was the difference in discipline between the Angels and the Yankees: the Angels swung at everything he tossed up there that looked like it might possibly somehow end up in the strike zone, and the Yankees ... didn't. And hit the stuff that did end up in the strike zone.
Chamberlain was better (not by a lot) for the Yanks, but the A's managed to scratch out a run in the 5th, and to drive his pitch count high enough to get to the Yankees' blah pen in the 7th.
Neither closer was on top his game -- Rivera was merely human, but Street was extremely hittable. I'm not sure what exactly was up with Street today. His usual problem -- not getting on top of his pitches, letting them "float" out of or up in the zone -- didn't seem to be in evidence. He was just ... really hittable. Hope this didn't drive his trade value down.
Looking to the positive side of the ledgers, there were a couple of bright spots for the A's today beside Gallagher's stuff and tenacity: Carlos Gonzalez' temporarily game-saving catch in the bottom of the 11th, Ryan Sweeney's game-by-game increasingly mature plate presence, and some good relief work by Embree, Casilla, and Ziegler.
A's try to avoid the sweep tomorrow.
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cking didn't start till the bottom of the 9th
When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 19, 2008 4:11 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
To be fair the su
Please append that to the prior post
When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 19, 2008 4:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Disagree - A's should have scored 2 in top of 9th
Remember, Sweeney stole 2nd with nobody out. Next three batters strike out. At least Suzuki was swinging, but the next two striking out looking (o the same pitch!) with a vital insurance run on 2nd is unacceptable.
by Miata71 on Jul 19, 2008 6:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just saw the video for the first time
The Molina in question clearly put his knee forward. ESPN did not say so, but showed it close up again and it really did appear as if he “leaned into it.” What a pity such a closely contested game has to end that way.
Crosby can't be gone soon enough for me. I hope they’re batting him 5th to raise his trade value. --WaddellCanseco
by Leopold Bloom on Jul 19, 2008 4:14 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Definitely a sucky way
to end. I feel all kinds of beat down.
Stomper is a badass!
by lynnzgal on Jul 19, 2008 4:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
But I'll still consider
your season ticket request ;-)
Stomper is a badass!
by lynnzgal on Jul 19, 2008 4:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yowza!
I’ve never had a woman with whom to go to the baseball games.
Crosby can't be gone soon enough for me. I hope they’re batting him 5th to raise his trade value. --WaddellCanseco
by Leopold Bloom on Jul 19, 2008 4:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Weird that I have now seen two A's games end with walkoff HBPs
considering that I probably haven’t caught more than 20% of the telecasts over the past four seasons.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Jul 19, 2008 4:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't buy that argument
He was dipping his front leg out of the way, and flexed his back knee the other way to compensate for balance.
Besides, who throws their kneecap into a pitch?
I told them 'My game is like a blog.' Because I don't know what a blog is, but it don't sound good. @('.')@
by monkeyball on Jul 19, 2008 4:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hadn't thought of that.
I’ll watch it again with the balance thing in mind. You may be right.
Regardless, shitty way to lose.
Crosby can't be gone soon enough for me. I hope they’re batting him 5th to raise his trade value. --WaddellCanseco
by Leopold Bloom on Jul 19, 2008 4:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just missed it
I had to go out after the 4th inning so I PVR’d the rest of the game … or what I thought would be the rest of the game. Turns out the last thing I saw was Sexson walk in the bottom of the 12th. Good thing, as it saved me from another primal scream like the one with 2 out in the bottom of the 9th.
by Larry E on Jul 19, 2008 4:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry to see Geren ripped
(I missed everything after the top of the 10th so I can’t comment on that stuff), but I thought he managed absolutely brilliantly in the top of the 9th – having Rajai steal second instead of taking the bat out of R. Sweeney’s hands with a sac bunt, and then still letting Sweeney hit away instead of opting for the sac bunt. Same with letting Suzuki hit away instead of bunting to set up a predictable “runner at third, one out for Cust” situation. Smart managing, taking advantage of Davis’ speed, Posada’s arm, and Sweeney’s bat.
To me the blunder, plain and simple, was Street throwing an 0-2 slider over the plate to Betemit after he had just chased one off the plate. You either bury a slider at his back foot, waste a changeup, or tie him up with a fastball. You do NOT throw a backdoor slider out over the plate. To me, that was not an error in execution, it was an error in pitch calling / pitch selection.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jul 19, 2008 4:18 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
See, people who are out to get Geren (and I'm not saying monkeyball's among them) don't...
...acknowledge the strategy in the top of the 9th. It’s easier to look at the things that didn’t work.
Last of the Ninth - Photography Site
jamesvenes.com - Blog
by Flashfire on Jul 19, 2008 4:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think you're right--
he really does do a pretty decent job. He can only play with the pieces Billy gets for him, and a good number of those pieces aren’t quite ready to be full-fledged MLB players yet.
Crosby can't be gone soon enough for me. I hope they’re batting him 5th to raise his trade value. --WaddellCanseco
by Leopold Bloom on Jul 19, 2008 4:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'll rip Geren for putting Ziggy in before Street.
Let Street pitch the 8th. If he does well, fine, let him finish the game. The minute he gets in trouble, you put Ziggy in for the hold/save. Screw this, “He’s our closer” garbage. He’s a bullpen pitcher….and at the moment, not even the best one in the pen.
"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer
by alox on Jul 19, 2008 7:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
So you'd send Street out there in a tie game in the 8th?
Guarantee that as long as he’s considered the team’s closer that will almost never happen.
Last of the Ninth - Photography Site
jamesvenes.com - Blog
by Flashfire on Jul 19, 2008 7:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know it won't happen.
What I’m saying is that Geren should have made it happen. He’s the freaking manger and his job is to win baseball games. Fine, he has to play the pieces Billy gives him, but he can play them in a manner fit to win a game. Our “closer” should be the best pitcher in the pen. That disqualifies Street.
I haven’t a clue what the problem is….other that Street’s pitching. Right now he sucks. He knows it, and every fan of the A’s knows it. Geren should let him know that he knows it too.
"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer
by alox on Jul 19, 2008 7:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pretty sure if Geren brings Street in in the 8th and he gives up a run, people will call...
...for Geren’s head there as well.
Last of the Ninth - Photography Site
jamesvenes.com - Blog
by Flashfire on Jul 19, 2008 7:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're probably right.
But it would be justifiable at this point, don’t you think? It’s come to the point that I don’t feel like Street can win with anything less than a three run lead. That’s a pretty serious indictment of your, “closer”.
"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer
by alox on Jul 19, 2008 7:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
No argument there.
I’m no longer confident in Street getting it done.
Last of the Ninth - Photography Site
jamesvenes.com - Blog
by Flashfire on Jul 19, 2008 7:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Putting in Street was a mistake in the first place
I mean, I know, he’s the closer, etc etc etc. This is the A’s. What happened to challenging idiotic conventional wisdom? Huston Street faces six lefthanders in a row. Then Jerry Blevins comes in and faces 4 out of 5 righties. WTF? That’s just plain stupid.
I mean, you know I’m not normally one to complain about managerial decisionmaking, but this game was just awful. It’s like Geren’s never heard the phrase “platoon split” sometimes.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Jul 19, 2008 4:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think Geren felt, rightly so,
that putting Blevins on the mound for his first ever save situation, with a one-run lead, in Yankee stadium, was not the way go – and I have to agree with that. Plus, Street already had to sit for six days with the spectre of last Sunday’s blown save hanging over him – which the team openly said was easily the toughest loss of the season – and I’m Geren wanted to get him out there as soon as possible – and I have to agree with that too.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jul 19, 2008 4:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
So put him in to face Betemit if it gets that far
I mean, if you’re just looking for a save situation, getting one out will do.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Jul 19, 2008 4:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Honestly, I think you just have to put Street out there
and hope he makes the pitches. I wouldn’t put Blevins out there in that particular situation – but I look at the “mental side” of the game a fair amount, too. I would not bank on Blevins getting Giambi, Posada, Cano in that situation as much as I would bank on him getting the same hitters out in a different inning/park/margin for error/point in his career. Just my perspective.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jul 19, 2008 4:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Especially considering you're basically showcasing him for
the Brewers to pit against showcasing him for the Rays early next week.
Crosby can't be gone soon enough for me. I hope they’re batting him 5th to raise his trade value. --WaddellCanseco
by Leopold Bloom on Jul 19, 2008 4:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, I will say this
I think Blevins is going to be very good. I think he can be a shutdown late-inning lefty, the #1 lefty in a bullpen, for the next great A’s team. I also think he’s shown that he’s not mentally soft in his minor league career (where he’s often served as a closer).
I would look at a game situation like this as an opportunity, not a problem.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Jul 19, 2008 4:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know this sounds "old school," but
I think in that spot you hand the ball to your closer and hope for the best.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jul 19, 2008 4:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly
This is what happens when the pitcher is shaking off the catcher. I caught for years, and if I see a guy cant handle a certain pitch I make the pitcher throw to his weakness. I would hope Suzuki saw this, if so he needs to go to the mound and tell Street that he is the boss. Personally I have lost my confidence is Street, he does not have the killer instinct to be a closer. Give it to Ziggy.
Stomp,em, stomp the piss out of em.Then pound the budweiser after the game. Joe Schultz Seattle Piolts Mgr 1969
by billyball1981 on Jul 19, 2008 9:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Killer instinct?
Come on, you can do better than that. At least find a phrase that isn’t ALWAYS used by people who are inventing reasons to dislike someone.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Jul 19, 2008 9:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't like him
because of the way he acted during our Junior Prom.
He knows what he did.
Crosby can't be gone soon enough for me. I hope they’re batting him 5th to raise his trade value. --WaddellCanseco
by Leopold Bloom on Jul 19, 2008 9:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well
when you can come up with a better on for one who is not going after hitters, let me know.
Stomp,em, stomp the piss out of em.Then pound the budweiser after the game. Joe Schultz Seattle Piolts Mgr 1969
by billyball1981 on Jul 21, 2008 1:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
For those who don't follow the game day threads...
...Ziegler has now thrown 21 2/3 scoreless innings. One more out and he ties the American League record to begin a career.
Last of the Ninth - Photography Site
jamesvenes.com - Blog
by Flashfire on Jul 19, 2008 4:18 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
can he close?
anyone think ziegler might challenge casilla/devine for the closer role if street is traded?
Cust is the new Jaha.
by johnjahafanclub on Jul 19, 2008 4:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I tend to agree with those who say
Ziggy’s value is maximized when you can bring him into a “DP situation” – which you can do if he’s a middle reliever or set-up man. I see him as a great “1.2 IP pitcher” – a guy who comes in to get you out of a jam and then go another inning.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jul 19, 2008 4:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
How was Sactown?
Crosby can't be gone soon enough for me. I hope they’re batting him 5th to raise his trade value. --WaddellCanseco
by Leopold Bloom on Jul 19, 2008 4:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Had Street bounced another slider that Betemit swung at,
it would be great – as it is, it sucks.
It’s hot and I want to see Gio or Meyer and Saarloos is listed as the probable starter.
Otherwise, fine.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jul 19, 2008 4:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
In my simulation game
I just traded Gaudin and brought up Saarloos to be my long reliever. His first game against the Rangers, he got shelled.
Crosby can't be gone soon enough for me. I hope they’re batting him 5th to raise his trade value. --WaddellCanseco
by Leopold Bloom on Jul 19, 2008 4:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
good point
the more innings we give him the better.
Cust is the new Jaha.
by johnjahafanclub on Jul 19, 2008 4:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't use him as a closer
He really is a ground ball specialist and as good as he’s been he’s going to fail at some point. He’s not a hard thrower so he’s not going to be blowing people away and missing bats, something that is probably more of a benefit for a closer compared to someone who may give up a few more baserunners because of a grounder that gets through, just as an example.
Ziegler could be used as a situational closer but full time? I wouldn’t go that far yet.
Last of the Ninth - Photography Site
jamesvenes.com - Blog
by Flashfire on Jul 19, 2008 4:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dan Quisenberry and Kent Tekulve were pretty good
Gene Garber was OK for a while. I don’t get the “he’s good in the 7th inning with men on base, but not in the 9th inning with no one on base” logic
When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 19, 2008 5:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is true
I just think the prevalence these days is to prefer a closer with harder stuff to hit at all, not just somewhere.
Last of the Ninth - Photography Site
jamesvenes.com - Blog
by Flashfire on Jul 19, 2008 5:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not opposed to him closing games out
but I think he’s better served in key situations between the 5th & 9th. He don’t see his stuff as closer stuff in the “I can get the out myself” sense but he’s got the “I can get us out of this jam with no/little damage” stuff.
In search of a new signature. Say something funny and you may see your comment here!
by DMOAS on Jul 19, 2008 5:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If he can get out of a jam with no damage
why isn’t he good enough to pitch when there’s no jam?
When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 19, 2008 6:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with Nico, but
Ziggy (and Blevins) did close for the River Cats before being called up.
21.2 and counting...
by ZigFan31 on Jul 19, 2008 5:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
important to focus on the positives
this season is increasingly getting out of hand with stuff like the barton DL pool incident
ryan sweeney is looking good. he is doing this season what I had hoped travis buck would do but didn’t.
gallagher also looked good for a young pitcher against a tough lineup in tough humid conditions.
i was glad to see murton in the lineup instead of emil.
Cust is the new Jaha.
by johnjahafanclub on Jul 19, 2008 4:19 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Is the first one a positive?
Should we celebrate that the season is increasingly getting out of hand with stuff like the Barton DL pool incident? :-)
Actually, yes, I suppose – he isn’t paralyzed, as he could well have been. Woo hoo – our first baseman isn’t paralyzed!!!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jul 19, 2008 4:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
well i was saying
that’s the reason we got to focus on the positives in our losses. no point in expecting us to contend with this weak hitting lineup.
Cust is the new Jaha.
by johnjahafanclub on Jul 19, 2008 4:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, and OneWonLostOne is right on the money
about Street’s problem lately – the lack of a putaway pitch. He had Giambi 0-2 and walked him after several foul balls and (obviously) 4 balls, and could not put away Betemit either.
What is most troubling is that if Beane is indeed trying to move Street (possibly to the Brewers), Huston’s stock is dropping – now 17/22 in save opportunities, whereas he was 17/20 a week ago today.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jul 19, 2008 4:21 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
was he quoting me?
lol
Foolsh, the most insane regular poster on AN since oaktoon left - salb
by FoolshGame22 on Jul 19, 2008 8:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
3 straight appearances
each one inning, each time giving up one run.
Cmon, a closer has to not give up 1 run each appearance.
by MobiusKlein on Jul 19, 2008 8:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's easy to blame Street for this loss
but the bottom line is, the Yankees were clearly superior on offense throughout the game, and it was a minor miracle that he even had a lead to hold. You strike out for 50% of your at-bats, you’ll be lucky to score one run, let alone three. You walk, what, nine guys, you’d be lucky to give up five runs, let alone three.
The A’s offense is almost mind-bogglingly bad at this point. Then you add in the fact that, frankly, the A’s pitching was kind of terrible today too, and what it adds up to is a game that should have been a blowout in which Street never even saw action. It really doesn’t matter which reliever exactly happened to give up a run, because somewhere along the line one of them was going to.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Jul 19, 2008 4:22 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
DFA time!
dfa emil and hannahan and donnie murphy. buy some jack custs from other teams minor league systems. is russell branyan available?
Cust is the new Jaha.
by johnjahafanclub on Jul 19, 2008 4:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm all for that, except...
...I don’t know what DFA means.
by Rhndasue on Jul 19, 2008 5:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Designate for assignment
It’s a euphemistic way to refer to cutting a player from your team.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Jul 19, 2008 5:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
True, but the Yankees' "superior offense"
left second and third with nobody out in the 2nd and then hit about .012 with RISP thereafter. So kind of matching suckiness all around.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jul 19, 2008 4:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
See, I don't consider that suckiness
I consider it bad luck. When one team is awful, awful, awful for 12 innings, and the other team is just really unlucky for 12 innings, I know who I’m betting on to win it eventually.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Jul 19, 2008 4:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Your view of "luck" and mine just don't seem to match
Which is not the end of the world.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jul 19, 2008 4:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
call up
eric patterson? he’s got 3 bombs in 30 plate appearances so far in sactown.
Cust is the new Jaha.
by johnjahafanclub on Jul 19, 2008 4:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I remain puzzled by the absence of Patterson and Murton in the lineup every day
When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 19, 2008 4:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If you play both of them, you're benching one of the following
Ellis
Cust
Sweeney
Gonzalez
Those guys are not the problem here.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Jul 19, 2008 4:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
can
patterson man third? does anyone know?
Cust is the new Jaha.
by johnjahafanclub on Jul 19, 2008 4:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
im so sick
of hannahan
Cust is the new Jaha.
by johnjahafanclub on Jul 19, 2008 4:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He has a wet noodle for a throwing arm
So no. In effect, he is limited to 2B and LF.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Jul 19, 2008 4:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
So he's a worse overall option than Hannahan?
When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 19, 2008 5:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
At third base? Yes, I think so
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Jul 19, 2008 5:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's a serious indictment
When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 19, 2008 6:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is it a serious indictment of Jack Cust that he would be a worse shortstop than Crosby?
(Which he would be, BTW.)
Some guys can’t play certain positions at a major league level. That’s just a fact of life.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Jul 19, 2008 6:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Although it's fun to imagine
Cust at short….
Crosby can't be gone soon enough for me. I hope they’re batting him 5th to raise his trade value. --WaddellCanseco
by Leopold Bloom on Jul 19, 2008 7:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
promote chris carter
to AA or AAA. he has 27 bombs in A this year and 26 last year he’s got nothing left to prove there.
Cust is the new Jaha.
by johnjahafanclub on Jul 19, 2008 4:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
How would promoting Chris Carter to AA help the major league team?
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Jul 19, 2008 4:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
it wont
i just noticed it…. it could help us next year if we get into a similar offensive funk or if daric barton, carlos gonzalez, and ryan sweeney all die in a freak gasoline-fighting incident… we will have carter there ready in AAA ready to be called into action.
Cust is the new Jaha.
by johnjahafanclub on Jul 19, 2008 4:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I disagree a little, PT
I agree that our pitching was inconsistent today, but there were real streaks of brilliance in there. Ziggy was good, of course, but I thought Gallagher was excellent getting out of (self-created, I’ll grant) jams. And I thought Embree pitched real well, and Casilla and Blevins matched our starter in getting out of some (self-created, again) jams. They played with a lot of heart today.
Crosby can't be gone soon enough for me. I hope they’re batting him 5th to raise his trade value. --WaddellCanseco
by Leopold Bloom on Jul 19, 2008 4:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well...
Once “somewhere along the line” gets as far as two outs and no one on in the bottom of the 9th, I think you damn well ought to expect that your relievers aren’t going to give up a run – even a bad reliever, let alone your closer.
You’re right of course that the Yankees were superior, our lineup was laughable, and that winning this game basically would have been thievery – but it’s a theft the A’s should have pulled off.
by Faust on Jul 19, 2008 6:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
OK, yes, the win probabilities were (briefly) in Oakland's favor
That does not change the fact that the clear better team won the game.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Jul 19, 2008 6:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Apparently Bankston had a cramp and had to be pulled for a PH
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2008/07/19/sports/s151226D25.DTL
When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 19, 2008 4:31 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
There you go.
I sure wish he could’ve hit in that situation. The FNG, who we just recalled. Yeah, he’s the one I want batting there…we really are pretty horrible offensively, huh?
Crosby can't be gone soon enough for me. I hope they’re batting him 5th to raise his trade value. --WaddellCanseco
by Leopold Bloom on Jul 19, 2008 4:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's really depressing to think that we're angry
because a guy that Oakland got on a waiver claim was unable to hit, thus depriving the lineup of one of it’s “best” hitters.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Jul 19, 2008 4:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
David Ortiz and Cust were free talent almost
When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 19, 2008 5:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think it counts
when the team that releases you (i.e. MN) has absolutely no idea what a good hitter is.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Jul 19, 2008 6:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
How is that different than KC waiving Bankston?
When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 19, 2008 6:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think they don't know what a good hitter is, they just don't have any
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Jul 19, 2008 6:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Our team doesn't know what a good hitter is.
"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer
by alox on Jul 19, 2008 7:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nonsense
The A’s know what a good hitter is, they just don’t have any (yet). Well, except for Cust, sort of.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Jul 19, 2008 7:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Give me a few recent examples.
It will make me feel better.
What kills me is that a guy like Kendall, punch and judy hitter that he is, can come to Oakland and suddenly start hitting .220. What gives?
"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer
by alox on Jul 19, 2008 7:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Part of the problem is the Coliseum
and part of the problem is that it seems like every decent hitter who comes to the Coliseum suddenly develops some fucking mystery ailment. Kendall apparently needed LASIK to fix his eyesight… which he figures out AFTER leaving Oakland.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Jul 19, 2008 7:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mt Davis is built out of depleted uranium
I told them 'My game is like a blog.' Because I don't know what a blog is, but it don't sound good. @('.')@
by monkeyball on Jul 19, 2008 8:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That would explain several things,
including my x-ray vision.
Crosby can't be gone soon enough for me. I hope they’re batting him 5th to raise his trade value. --WaddellCanseco
by Leopold Bloom on Jul 19, 2008 9:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think Ryan Sweeney knows how to hit...
and was a nice pickup.
I think Daric Barton has spent two months too long on the 25 man roster and I would like to see what Bankston can do the rest of this season.
When Thomas comes back from the DL, Emil better be gone!
And, I just can’t fucking wait until Beane finds somebody, anybody to dump Street’s sorry ass on. I don’t care what we get back in return!
Foolsh, the most insane regular poster on AN since oaktoon left - salb
by FoolshGame22 on Jul 19, 2008 8:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is it just me, or is Huston starting his stride with his legs farther apart. He seems
to be a lot further down the mound, which would cause his loss of velocity. I am not a pitching coach, and don’t even play one on TV, but it looks that way to me.
by theblackpearl on Jul 19, 2008 4:40 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I really think he may still be injured.
Crosby can't be gone soon enough for me. I hope they’re batting him 5th to raise his trade value. --WaddellCanseco
by Leopold Bloom on Jul 19, 2008 4:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think he's really left-handed
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jul 19, 2008 4:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
We have Billy Wagner?
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
by Helloooo 1st on Jul 19, 2008 8:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've also noticed
that he’s not always got his eye on the glove. He lowers his head and line of see to the ground when he kicks.
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by DMOAS on Jul 19, 2008 5:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is why I don't care about run differential as much as some do
Last five games: -4 (17-21)
Record: 1-4 (the win was 9-2, meaning they’ve been outscored 19-8 in the following four losses)
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by Flashfire on Jul 19, 2008 4:57 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
The roulette wheel coming up red 4 of the last 5 times
clearly indicates that it is biased toward red.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Jul 19, 2008 6:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
No, but it just continues the season-long pattern...
...of a few blowout wins throwing the overall totals out of proportion when they then struggle and lose a few more afterward that are much closer.
What’s more important? Having the record the Angels do or having a better run differential than them?
I’ll keep saying it as long as people keep acting otherwise: the pythag record is not as important as the real record and the only reason the A’s have a better pythag record is because they’ve had more blowouts in their favor.
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by Flashfire on Jul 19, 2008 6:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
OK, how about you define "important"
If by that, you mean “whether the team is making the playoffs this year,” yes, the real record is more important.
If by it you mean “measuring how good the team actually is,” no, it damn well isn’t more important.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Jul 19, 2008 6:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Here's the thing.
I don’t believe it really measures how good the team actually is when the majority of the differential is based on little more than a handful of games.
I already went over this a few days ago, but the A’s have been good enough to win about seven more blowouts than they’ve lost. That is the only reason the run differential and, by extension, the pythag record is so high compared to their actual record.
When I see the team put up 8, 9 or 10 runs in one game then struggle to match that over their next three or four, that tells you how inconsistent the offense is. Yes, we know why the offense is struggling, but those rare games where they bust out and batter the other pitchers around have thrown some of these numbers off.
I would much rather see them do a better job of scoring more than two or three runs a game on a consistent basis rather than getting a bunch in one game only to lose a few more because they go back to not hitting again.
If you think their run differential really measures how good the team actually is, then I’m sorry to say you’re flat out wrong.
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by Flashfire on Jul 19, 2008 6:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Offensive consistency does not predict offensive consistency
If something has no predictive value, then as far as I’m concerned it’s a completely worthless measurement. Not worth doing, not worth paying any attention to unless you’re doing a pure retrospective analysis.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Jul 19, 2008 7:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Part of this is about analyzing how the team is getting their runs and when
It’s not as simple as saying they’re getting 4.3 runs a game just because they’ve got 414 runs in 97 games. It’s a fact, but in their case their usual average is less.
If you add up all the runs, they’ve scored the following so far:
0 runs 8 times (8.25%)
1 run 17 times (17.5%)
2 runs 8 times (8.3%)
3 runs 16 times (16.5%)
4 runs 12 times (12.4%)
Let’s cut it off right there for a moment.
Season average: 4.3 runs.
Games under that: 61 of 97 (62.9%)
Games over that: 36 of 97 (37.1%)
So, they score under their season average nearly 2 of every 3 games they play.
Finishing it out:
5 runs 8 times (8.3%)
6 runs 8 times (8.3%)
7 runs 6 times (6.2%)
8 runs 2 times (2.1%)
9 runs 4 times (4.1%)
10 runs 1 time (1.0%)
11 runs 1 time (1.0%)
12 runs 1 time (1.0%)
13 runs 2 times (2.1%)
14 runs 1 time (1.0%)
15 runs 2 times (2.1%)
Somehow they’ve actually managed 8 games scoring 10 or more runs, but in those games they’ve picked up 103 of their 414 runs.
That’s 25% of their runs in 8% of their games.
I could add in the 4 they scored 9 in and bring it to 139 runs and that’s 33.6% of their runs in 12.4% of their games.
I think it’s clear that the number of times the A’s are under their actual average is so out of proportion to the norm that, combined with the usual outliers of 9 or 10+ a game it’s really thrown the so-called predictions out of whack. That’s why no matter how good the pitching has been overall, it hasn’t been enough to really balance out the terrible offense.
I also think we’ll see much different figures for the Angels, which I’ll do next.
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by Flashfire on Jul 19, 2008 8:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Interesting stuff with the Angels
First of all, 424 runs in 98 games, good for 4.3 a game just like the A’s.
The biggest difference is in the number of times the Angels have either been shut out or got just 1 run:
0 runs 4 times (4.1%)
1 run 5 times (5.2%)
Right there, they’ve done it 9 times compared to 25 for the A’s. Where they have the bulk of their runs is the 2-4 range:
2 runs 14 times (14.4%)
3 runs 15 times (15.5%)
4 runs 20 times (20.6%)
Add it up and that’s 58 of 98 games under their season average (59.2%). Actually pretty close to the number of times the A’s have done it.
EXCEPT for the irregular percentage of times the A’s failed to even really give themselves a chance to win. 0-1 runs for the A’s? 25.8% of their games. 1 in every 4. For the Angels? 9.2%. Under 1 in every 10.
BIG DIFFERENCE.
Let’s just finish it out:
5 runs 11 times (11.3%)
6 runs 11 times (11.3%)
7 runs 6 times (6.2%)
8 runs 3 times (3.1%)
9 runs 3 times (3.1%)
10 runs 3 times (3.1%)
11 runs 2 times (2.1%)
Seeing that, they’ve only scored 10+ runs a game 5 times. That’s just over half the times the A’s have done it (5:8). Add in the 9 and you get a 2:3 ratio (8 compared to 12).
How about the percentage of runs? It was 25-33% for the A’s. For the Angels at 10+ it’s 52 of their 424 runs, or 12.3%. Add in the 9 and it’s 79 runs, or 18.6%. So, 25-33% to 12-18%.
In that middle range of 3-6 runs is your key difference. For the A’s, it’s 44 games (45.4%). For the Angels, it’s 57 games (58.2%).
As you can see, the Angels don’t have many games where they score a ton of runs but they’re also VERY good at actually giving themselves a chance to win by putting more runs on the board more often than the A’s.
That is why the Angels are ahead of their pythag record and the A’s aren’t.
That is why the Angels are in first place and the A’s aren’t.
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by Flashfire on Jul 19, 2008 8:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
So the Angels are regularly getting
their offensive output to the middle range (3-6) while we are regularly stuck in the low range (0-2). The assumption (on my part) is this is because they “produce” them more—ala steals, hit and runs, aggressive base running. Is this a proper assumption? I mean, I understand that the Angels offense is simply better than the A’s. I get that. But the aggressive nature has to figure into it, right?
Crosby can't be gone soon enough for me. I hope they’re batting him 5th to raise his trade value. --WaddellCanseco
by Leopold Bloom on Jul 19, 2008 9:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
somehow, I think it has more to do with...
guys hitting like Hannahan, Murphy and Barton (and, even Ellis lately) being in our lineup. See anyone hitting like that in the Angels’ lineup?
Foolsh, the most insane regular poster on AN since oaktoon left - salb
by FoolshGame22 on Jul 19, 2008 9:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hannahan and Murphy
are bench players. I really like Hannahan, but he is not an everyday player. Barton needs a break—hopefully this stint on the DL will serve him well, but if he comes back as lost as he’s looked up there lately, perhaps a stint in Sactown is the way to go.
We have (and I can sense already that there are some who will not appreciate me throwing this into the mix) no leadership on this club right now. We have a bunch of younger guys and a couple of older, cog-types (Emil, Ellis, Cust), but no one out there who can, for instance, bring Deric back to the path, or calm Street down when the Yankees threaten rally.
Crosby can't be gone soon enough for me. I hope they’re batting him 5th to raise his trade value. --WaddellCanseco
by Leopold Bloom on Jul 19, 2008 9:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't watch them enough to compare, but I'd say it's a safe bet...
...their more aggressive style pays off in ways like this, yes.
They’ve also got 15 more homers than the A’s (85-70) and while that still puts the Angels in the bottom third of the Majors, it’s surely good for a few more runs here and there especially if they get a few more runners on base, though the numbers are comparable when it comes to solo homers (52% Angels, 54% A’s).
And what FoolishGame22 said. They’re just better at putting a few more runs on the board in most of their games.
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by Flashfire on Jul 19, 2008 9:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ok
I hate to say you doing all this was wasting your time, because it looks like a lot of work, but it was basically wasting your time.
I already expected a distribution like this. That’s how a team beats their pythagorean record. Your argument is tautological—they’re beating their pythag because they’re doing what teams do when they beat their pythag. OK. It’s just luck. It doesn’t mean anything.
And no, smallball teams are not exempt from pythag or even, as far as I’m aware, better than average at beating it. Other than having a weirdly unbalanced bullpen in which the frontline guys are way, way better than the back end guys, which might be good for 1-2 wins over your pythag, I’m not aware of any “strategy” that will account for the difference.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Jul 19, 2008 9:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm going to bet it's got to do with a little more than just luck.
The Angels are an aggressive team. The A’s aren’t. That’s also going to account for some differences.
I don’t think it was time wasted because it does show pretty clearly where a large part of the problem is between the two teams in that the A’s have a much higher percentage of games scoring 0-1 runs and a higher percentage of runs coming from their high-scoring games compared to the Angels.
The basic fact is the Angels offense is better at giving themselves a chance to win on a more consistent basis. Plain and simple.
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by Flashfire on Jul 19, 2008 9:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
We could go on like this for hours
I mean, it’s pretty simple. You believe (on what evidence, I don’t know) that the Angels are doing something concrete that increases the chance that they score a middling number of runs. I’m not going to believe anything of the sort until someone, you or whomever, actually shows me some proof as to what that something is.
Basepath aggression isn’t it. You could make an argument that their runs scored might be a bit higher than their equivalent runs based on their hitting linear weights because of aggression. But it does not, at all, explain why they would somehow win more games with the same number of runs.
I mean, the argument practically refutes itself. They’re ALWAYS aggressive. They do it all the time. If anything, the A’s are the ones who increase their aggression more in high leverage situations, and should have a higher pythag (but a lower runs/EqR ratio) than the Angels.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Jul 19, 2008 9:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not interested in going on like this for hours, so don't worry about that
Sometimes there isn’t any one or two things you can point to as the difference. Obviously we have two teams that average the same amount of runs over the current course of the season, but it’s very clear one team is better at scoring a more consistent number of runs than the other. One team has a more even graph of runs while the other has greater spikes at the low and high ends of the spectrum.
Why? Who cares? All I care about is that it is true.
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by Flashfire on Jul 19, 2008 9:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
i agree with paul
no evidence basepath aggression is it
although it certainly helped the A’s in the 9th today
Cust is the new Jaha.
by johnjahafanclub on Jul 19, 2008 9:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sort of
I could probably have stolen a base off of Posada at this point. There was practically no risk involved.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Jul 19, 2008 11:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
As much as it pains me to suggest this...
perhaps the difference here is in managerial skill. I hate Sciosa on most any given night (hate in a baseball sense, he’s probably a decent guy off the field). Can it be that Sciosa is managing his pieces so as to maximize or beat his pythag expectations? Say what you want about “small ball”, but dear old Mike is a lot more successful than not when taking the extra base, putting on the hit and run, laying down a bunt, etc. Perhaps his judgment as to when to apply these strategies is the factor lending the Angles a measure of success beyond what their pythag would suggest?
"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer
by alox on Jul 20, 2008 8:52 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
My personal opinion is that Scioscia is
a bit overrated as a tactician. His “be aggressive all the time” philosophy is just as apt to cost outs, and let opponents off the hook by only needing to get 25 outs, as it is to pay off. He is over zealous as much as the A’s are sometimes under zealous. And it’s not “great managing” to use Shields and K-Rod instead of Embree and Street – it’s just nice for him to have those chips to play.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jul 20, 2008 9:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Your opinion matches my original view
of him as a manager. But I’ve come to grips with the fact that the Angels are doing something to contravene their expected statistical outcome.
So my thought was to put the idea out there that perhaps their manager is utilizing his tools to their utmost potential. 25 or 27 outs matters only in the sense of the final score. Those outs are means to an end….the end of course being the amount of runs after 9 innings. You only require one more than your opponent. How you spend the currency of outs to achieve that goal may be the difference between the stat model and reality. So could it be possible that Sciosa is enjoying a season as an extraordinary field general?
I’m all ears as to an alternative explanation. PT can recite pythag theory from here to infinity, but Flashfire is correct. The outcome at the end of September is the final arbiter. That outcome will be determined by individual games, not by mathmatical predictions about what should and should not be.
"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer
by alox on Jul 20, 2008 6:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
And that's where I differ from some of the people who think certain stats...
...and predictions are more important than the actual results on the field.
The actual results trump all else. Predictions are nice if you want to say “Hey, this team’s doing better than they should and that one is doing worse while this one is right on target” but if a team is consistently playing better than they supposedly should then clearly they’re doing something right compared to others.
In the case of the Angels, we can clearly see what’s helping: they don’t win a lot of blowouts but they also actually score runs often and do it in a much more balanced way than the A’s. Where the A’s get one or two runs and lose by giving up two or three, the Angels are getting three or four and winning more of those games.
The two teams may be averaging the same amount of runs while the A’s give up less overall, but it’s the Angels who are better at getting enough runs at the right times to win more games than the A’s do, especially when you consider the fact the A’s are scoring 0-1 runs in 1 out of every 4 games while the Angels do it only 1 in every 10 or so. That’s a pretty huge difference.
Reality trumps whatever predictions are out there every time.
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by Flashfire on Jul 20, 2008 11:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I imagine that your observations,
are beyond the reproach of even the most adroit statisticians. Which is not to say that I don’t approve of the use of the statistical models when building a team. Far from it. To my untrained eyes it seems the idea method to utilize when constructing a team. Far superior to the subjective methods used by the Bavasi’s throughout the ages.
It’s mind boggling to think that there are minds out there capable of conceiving a derivative approach to baseball players and their talents.
However, the vagaries of fortune will always have their say. Sadly, they will speak the loudest in close, (or would-be-close) races. The race is not always to the swiftest, or the contest not always to the strongest…to quote someone whom I can’t remember.
"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer
by alox on Jul 21, 2008 10:12 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah. What gets me the most about it...
...is when people say stuff like “The Angels are only winning because of luck and the teams still have the rest of the season to get to their pythag records,” as if they expect the Angels to suddenly drop off and the A’s to suddenly pick back up.
When you stop and look at the actual distribution of runs, you should have enough evidence to know the chances of things changing this season are slim to none. Are the A’s suddenly going to stop getting 0-1 runs in 25% of their games? Doubt it. Are the Angels suddenly going to stop scoring consistently instead of having the high spikes of a few 12-run games followed up by the low spikes of a couple 1-run games? Doubt it.
One thing I didn’t point out before: when I said the Angels have scored 0-1 runs just 9 times this season, I neglected to mention a full third of that came in one series against the Dodgers when they only scored 1 run total.
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by Flashfire on Jul 21, 2008 11:41 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree the Angels are way more aggressive
Their shitiest hitters produce more because they are more aggressive. Ours just get in a hole and are dead when they get behind for the most part.
Our hitters overall appear to watch most of the fat pitches go by while trying to work the count and they pay for it with outs far more than the norm.
Just an observation and my opinion and I am just responding to first sentence of your post.
As to the rest of it, thanks for posting all the numbers, they are very interesting.
by Trainman on Jul 19, 2008 11:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Quick example
That run the Angels got on Sunday on the throw to first that Barton double-clutched before throwing home on because Suzuki wasn’t looking his way.
You’re not going to see the A’s force the issue like that. The Angels will do it if they see the opportunity. The A’s play things much safer and take fewer chances. It’s probably somewhat related to their inability to score many runs in the first place. When you don’t get a lot of runs you aren’t going to risk getting thrown out in as many situations.
Granted, most teams probably don’t try to score on that play. The fact the Angels did says enough to me about their style of play and how it pays off. Call it blind luck, call it making your own luck, call it forcing the other team into making the play to beat you. Whatever fits.
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by Flashfire on Jul 19, 2008 9:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Angels have gotten quite "lucky" alot over the years
considering that they have been outperforming their pythag for the last 4 or 5 years.
"We were s--, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Jul 19, 2008 9:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Surprisingly, this is actually right
although in ‘04 and ‘05 the overperformance was insignificant.
Then again, with 30 major league teams, one team should have a 5 year pythagorean “winning streak.”
Also, FWIW, the A’s are above average in pythagorean differential by a couple of games during that stretch…
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Jul 19, 2008 9:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wish it were that simple
What confuses me about your statement is that I think it’s hard to control who wins these one-run games. There is a lot of luck involved in winning one-run games. If I knew of a strategy that was successful in improving one-run game sucess, then I’d be all for it, but the only way I know of is the usual: good offense and good pitching. And the A’s offense is. . . well, good is not the word I would use. And the pitching has been great, but with some weakness in the bullpen (outside of the awesomeness of Ziggy), and not knowing how our rotation will hold up post Harden/Blanton/Gaudin’s departure, our weakness seems to not be only one-run games, but games in general. What we really need are better players, not just a “one-run game” strategy. So if you have some way to assure winning one-run games, besides just having better players, please do share.
by el generico on Jul 19, 2008 7:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
They need a better offense, plain and simple
A better offense that is actually consistent (and I don’t mean consistently bad).
They don’t get blown out a lot because the team pitching is among the best in the league. Their offense is fluky enough that they’ll put up a bunch of runs on occasion but then they go right back to stinking and they’re just average at winning or losing those low-scoring games.
They’ve had a good average w/RISP but some of that is still propped up from a great start to the season. I think we’re all well aware of the situations where the A’s should be able to at least get a run or two across or turn a 1-run inning into a big one only to come up empty. That’ll get you your share of losses.
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by Flashfire on Jul 19, 2008 7:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also, situational hitting
This team is pathetic at it. Can’t move runners over well, they rarely bunt well when called on to do it, and just look at how much they strike out.
Improve in those areas and they’ll win more games.
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by Flashfire on Jul 19, 2008 7:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Striking out is not "situational hitting"
It’s just hitting, period. And right now the A’s K numbers are being jacked sky high by guys like Murphy and Hannahan who are not major league quality hitters.
As el generico points out, what the A’s need is not guys who are situationally good, but guys who are just good, period. Right now there are multiple gaping chasms in the batting order. The least they can do is get those to league-average level.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Jul 19, 2008 7:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Taking a called 3rd strike can be bad "situational hitting" though
“And right now the A’s K numbers are being jacked sky high by guys like Murphy and Hannahan…”
And Jack Cust.
Oh heck, by everybody in the line up, actually.
I disagree that striking out in a situation where simply making contact and putting the ball in play isn’t extremely poor situational hitting, but I’ll qualify or refine that idea by saying “taking a called third strike with runners in scoring position is bad situational hitting” instead.
But yeah, the real issue remains- some of the folks on the line up card each day aren’t proving, nor have they proven, themselves to be everyday MLB hitters and you certainly mentioned the two names that leap to mind first.
by still bills kingdom on Jul 19, 2008 9:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Most of the A's strikeouts are swinging,
at pitches in the zone.
Why? Because they aren’t good at hitting. As I’ve said before, I have far more of a problem with guys who strike out swinging a lot, which is indicative of either a bad eye or the inability to hit (depending on whether the pitch is in the zone or not), than I have with guys who strike out looking.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Jul 19, 2008 9:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, to be fair though,
the swinging at the third strike, instead of watching the third strike, is a fairly new phenomenon, brought about by Geren’s prompting. Right?
Crosby can't be gone soon enough for me. I hope they’re batting him 5th to raise his trade value. --WaddellCanseco
by Leopold Bloom on Jul 19, 2008 9:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Doubt it
People invariably remember looking Ks more than swinging Ks.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Jul 19, 2008 9:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Whether they're striking out looking
or swinging is irrelevant. If they go down looking it means they either have a poor eye/strike zone judgment or are failing swing at close pitches that “could” be called a strike. If they go down swinging it means they have a poor eye/strike zone judgment or just bad timing. While that’s excusable, when done in mass (and yes, this includes someone like Cust), it’s not good. You can take your hacks all you want when you don’t have two strikes, but once you do, you need to protect and play more for contact because odds are you’re going to help yourself and your team more often that why then you are to hit a home run by taking a huge cut at the ball.
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by DMOAS on Jul 19, 2008 9:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The second part of what you said here DMOAS
gets at what I was trying to say, I think: it’s bad situational hitting to not at least take a swing at something close enough to be a called third strike, whether you personally believe in your heart of hearts that it’s a strike, with runners in scoring position. Especially with less than 2 outs.
by still bills kingdom on Jul 19, 2008 9:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't understand why people feel it necessary
to constantly speak in generalities.
Every pitch is a unique situation, based on the count, the base/out situation, the hitter’s tendencies, the speed of the pitch, what the umpire is calling a strike… christ, there are a million variables. Obviously if the ump has a tight zone and it’s 3-2 with the bases loaded 2 outs, you should be taking a lot more pitches than if he’s ringing up everything, it’s 0-2 and there’s a guy on third with one out.
Obviously there’s a lot of guesswork involved here, but saying “swing at everything” is just stupid. And I think Jack Cust is a zillion times better qualified to decide whether he should be swinging at a given pitch than you or I are.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Jul 19, 2008 11:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Whatever category you put striking out in
It happens way too much and is a good reason why we lose a lot of close games.
That and Certain pitchers who can’t close the door because they have their ** jammed in it.
I am not an expert but swing the damned bat and stop trying to walk their way on base so much. Of course as PT points out below, many of those that do swing cannot hit their way out of a paper bag.
18 times today was about 10 times too many.
by Trainman on Jul 19, 2008 11:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Make that "as PT points out above"
someone please enlighten me as to how to get my reply in the right place instead of at the bottom of the thread. Is that possible to do?
by Trainman on Jul 19, 2008 11:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I see no evidence to suggest that the team's whiffs today
were in any way the result of “trying to walk their way on base.”
I don’t know, maybe there were some in the first few innings when I wasn’t watching, but not any of the ones I saw.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Jul 19, 2008 11:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was listening to Extra Innings on the way home
(I missed most of the game and I’m kind of glad I did).
Robert Buan did not actually use the word “suck”, but he conveyed it, and agreed with a caller who described the team as AAA.
When the perpetually enthusiastic guy who is paid to say nice things about the team thinks they suck….they suck.
by Englishmajor on Jul 19, 2008 5:22 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Buan losing the faith
Yeah and I heard him rant about how there is no way that Cust should bat third. I have never heard him that critical of an A’s manager!
by sacto on Jul 19, 2008 5:53 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
He is right
He should be 6th
Of course we are short on 3,4,5 hitters. Our best hitter is Ryan Sweeney and it’s not even a contest.
by Trainman on Jul 19, 2008 5:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
On-Air Staff Getting On A's Case
Both Ken Korach and Vince Cotroneo have been getting on the A’s case lately… not surprised to see Robert Buan jump on the contra-bandwagon.
by muscatel on Jul 19, 2008 5:54 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Huston is garbage
I absolutely knew that he would blow it. No blame to anyone else in this game. Huston has a job and he is not doing it. Is his confidence gone? If so, get him to the shrink fast.
This team did a good job today and should have won—they got to Mariano. That doesn’t often happen.
i am ready to bid Huston goodbye. Enough. If he is injured, then admit it and put someone else out there.
by oaklandcrazy on Jul 19, 2008 5:55 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Since it is evident that we are now not contending
Why can not they not weed out the weeds and plug in some more rookies and let them learn on the job for next season.
DiNardo, Braden, Hannahan, Murphy, Embree, Foulke and even Emil, just to name a 1,000 are not part of the A’s future.
I myself would be trading Crosby and bringing back Petit. Correct me if I’m wrong because I am not perfect but Petit is or has the potential to be a way better SS than Crosby. And he cannot be much worse at the plate in the long term.
I would have traded Huston Street awhile ago but alas he torpedoed his own chances and to be honest, I think he does not want to leave, so he’s probably not that upset about this one.
Maybe it’s a little early for Gio but to hell with it. Plug him in against KC or someone and let him learn on the job.
With all the injuries it is understandable but it would be nice to get a set lineup as opposed to a different one every day due to such injuries etc.
Anyway, I don’t see the point in trotting out auto-outs when there are others who can at least give you a decent at bat at the plate and not flail away and look like a total failure up there.
by Trainman on Jul 19, 2008 6:06 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I think all this will happen over the next two weeks
Even Braden’s start may be a showcase
When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 19, 2008 6:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
A showcase of how he's not a ML quality starter?
by OldhamA on Jul 19, 2008 11:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Boy, it's good to see that people here are keeping an open mind
and giving him a fair shot to succeed.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Jul 19, 2008 11:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's been given a shot, he's not good enough to be in the rotation.
He could be useful out of the ‘pen, but that’s a different matter.
by OldhamA on Jul 19, 2008 11:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm willing to give him a shot...
but, only if Billy is willing to let him throw his screwball.
I haven’t seen a good scroogie in awhile. Everyone laments the passing of the knuckleball, but I lament the passing of the screwball.
C’mon, Billy, let the kid throw his best pitch.
Foolsh, the most insane regular poster on AN since oaktoon left - salb
by FoolshGame22 on Jul 19, 2008 11:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
if we're just talking about next season
braden, and even hannahan and murphy, don’t deserve to be lumped together with emil, foulke, and embree.
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05
by xbhaskarx on Jul 19, 2008 10:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Tough loss today
But then again everyone is. Go A’s get one (at least) tomorrow.
by A'sfaninNC on Jul 19, 2008 7:25 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
It appears cramps were the reason Blankston was PH for today.
Just saw this on Rotoworld
“Wes Bankston cramped up late in Saturday’s game and was removed for a pinch-hitter in the 12th.”
Like the commercials say, "Drink more water."
by A'sfaninNC on Jul 19, 2008 7:40 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Can anybody tell me why they IBB the bases loaded?
Really, sounds stupid x100 to load the bases w/ 2 outs in extra innings.
It’s just asking for this, especially after showing signs of lack of control – walking Sexton.
by MobiusKlein on Jul 19, 2008 9:01 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
They didn't IBB the bases loaded
Jeter was at second with one out and they IBB’d Rodriguez to get to Sexson. Then his walk ended up loading the bases but they were hoping for a DP or a force out.
They never got to 2 outs.
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by Flashfire on Jul 19, 2008 9:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
well poo
Still pretty crappy.
If you walk Arod to get to Sexson, get f’ing Sexson out.
And I’ll say again Street is injured. Or will be shortly if he’s not already.
by MobiusKlein on Jul 19, 2008 9:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You know,
today’s loss really depressed me, I’m not sure why. Well, I mean I know why—we managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, but it was no worse than last Sunday. It didn’t affect me right after the fact. I was happy that the A’s fought hard and tried to win, despite being severely outmatched. But…upon reflection…I dunno. It seems like there was something really…off about this game.
Crosby can't be gone soon enough for me. I hope they’re batting him 5th to raise his trade value. --WaddellCanseco
by Leopold Bloom on Jul 19, 2008 9:11 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
maybe it's the 8 games out of 1st thing...
that kind of infuses the entire remainder of the season with a sense of hopelessness. No second-half joy of contention. Just resignation to watching Huston blow another game he comes into. Despair.
Foolsh, the most insane regular poster on AN since oaktoon left - salb
by FoolshGame22 on Jul 19, 2008 9:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
But it shouldn't be that way
If he’s going rebuilding, we get rid of the pieces that resignate. The Streets of our team have value, even if it’s projected by the other teams. I can see talking yourself into it…”Sure, he’s blown his last two saves, and a handful of others, and his ERA is now over 5…but his team provides no support, there’s no offense, and they’re out of contention…we’ve seen him pitch in contention before…” Let’s trade that piece.
Crosby can't be gone soon enough for me. I hope they’re batting him 5th to raise his trade value. --WaddellCanseco
by Leopold Bloom on Jul 19, 2008 9:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I liked the way Gallagher hung in there today...
I liked the way the bullpen pitched through jams and kept the A’s in it.
I liked the way the A’s scored against Rivera, the best closer in history, to take the lead.
I didn’t like the way, Huston gave the fucking game away with 2 outs and an 0-2 count on the last batter he should have faced. Who didn’t know it was coming? I did.
Foolsh, the most insane regular poster on AN since oaktoon left - salb
by FoolshGame22 on Jul 19, 2008 9:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
How does that go again,
“Die doomsayers, die”?
Welcome to the dark side…
by skutch on Jul 19, 2008 9:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
lol
Foolsh, the most insane regular poster on AN since oaktoon left - salb
by FoolshGame22 on Jul 19, 2008 9:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm almost there.
But I do see the positive FG22 lists above. They really scrapped in there vs. Mariano. Maybe that’s what’s so depressing. They really wasted a lot of effort.
Crosby can't be gone soon enough for me. I hope they’re batting him 5th to raise his trade value. --WaddellCanseco
by Leopold Bloom on Jul 19, 2008 9:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
well said foolsh
there are some positives. we need to practice looking at the positives b/c this team is gonna falter in the second half. hopefully they bring up more young guys to get some big show experience and DFA/bench the useless guys like hannahan and emil and donnie murphy.
sure makes you miss scutaro or even frankie menechino circa 2001.
i wish the rangers were in last and fired wash so we could hire him to teach eric patterson how to play third as well as he taught chavy.
Cust is the new Jaha.
by johnjahafanclub on Jul 19, 2008 10:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Casey Stengal....
is that you? Need a job?
"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer
by alox on Jul 20, 2008 9:00 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
As bad as Street has been...
...he’s not THE problem. This team hasn’t had a decent hitter on it for 3 years at least.
Basically, the pitching has been very good. That’s what kept them in the race until now.
Seems like between now and 7/31 would be a good time to pick one up. but don’t bet on it. Finally, I’m a little surprised Thomas hasn’t been released. Good guy and good in the clubhouse I hear, but by the time he gets his swing back it will be over, if it isn’t already.
by doubleplayer on Jul 19, 2008 10:20 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
wait, what?
you say we havent had a decent hitter in 3 years, (i dont know what thomas was in 2006 if not decent/incredible) and ur surprised we havent released the guy who is capable of being our biggest producer and is being paid the minimum? and when did he lose his swing? he had a quad injury and was hitting well before he got injured, i think we should hold on to him for dear life .
by chipper1001 on Jul 19, 2008 10:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
why would they release Thomas?
when, he’s owed like $2.00 for the rest of the season and will be back soon (I hope). Now, Mike Sweeney, on the other hand…
They should be releasing Emil Brown, but for some demented reason, I suspect he’ll stick with the team until the end of the season.
The guys they should be replacing are Hannahan, Murphy, Barton.
The guys they should be trading are, well… everybody else… Street, Duke, Embree, Chavez (impossible, I know, but…). Cust better have a monster second half or I would expect Billy to move on from that experiment after this year.
Foolsh, the most insane regular poster on AN since oaktoon left - salb
by FoolshGame22 on Jul 19, 2008 10:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't see why you would dump M.Sweeney
He like Frank is getting paid very little. You also mention that they should replace Barton, well I would think that Sweeney could do that for a year until some of the 1B stars at the minor league level are ready.
I think Mike is also considered a great club-house guy and he isn’t that far from returning as well.
Now if Wes Bankston starts tearing it up then I could see the A’s not needing Sweeney.
by Yellowhorse on Jul 20, 2008 3:28 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
wtf, no decent hitters in 3 years??
2006: thomas, swisher, bradley “when healthy”.
2007: jack cust, ellis, swisher, buck “when healthy”, barton and bradley for 20 games each.
2008: cust, r sweeny, thomas “when healthy”.
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05
by xbhaskarx on Jul 19, 2008 10:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Geren's Suckatude Would have Been On FULL Display:
If Molina didn’t stick his knee out and take one for the team. What the hell is it with playing the infield in with a 3 toed sloth at the plate?
Any ground ball would have been a double play, and the infield never HAS to play IN when there is a force play at the plate!!!
Pride And Poise!!!
by saint on Jul 19, 2008 11:01 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Look who was at first.
Do you expect Emil Brown to be great as the end of a DP?
It could happen. Walking sexson was the ball-buster however.
Why walk the bases loaded – make him put it in play.
by MobiusKlein on Jul 19, 2008 11:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He only has to catch it.
It was no mistake that Molina was trying to hit it to the right side. Brown stands a better chance if he were playing back on the ball.
Pride And Poise!!!
by saint on Jul 19, 2008 11:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have a question about Jack Cust
OK, we all know he strikes out a ton and we have to accept that and that he does not want to change his approach at the plate. I do like the times when he is aggressive early and I think he has hit a number of bombs on the first or second pitch.
Anyway, when he gets to two strikes, he still seems to swing for the fences. How hard would it be for him to cut his swing down a little. He has plenty of power and the ball is still going to go out if he could cut it down with 2 strikes. More contact is more balls in play.
Do you know if he has tried to cut it down or do you guys think it would be hard for him to shorten his stroke?
by Trainman on Jul 20, 2008 12:01 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I speak with him often about this...
he says he just can’t help himself.
Foolsh, the most insane regular poster on AN since oaktoon left - salb
by FoolshGame22 on Jul 20, 2008 12:06 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Completely random question.
Did we participate in this? I remember it happening, I remember how up in arms people were about it, and I don’t think we participated. But I cannot find any proof one way or the other on it. Did we turn ahead the clock in 1999 or not?
http://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Turn_Ahead_the_Clock_Night
Crosby can't be gone soon enough for me. I hope they’re batting him 5th to raise his trade value. --WaddellCanseco
by Leopold Bloom on Jul 20, 2008 12:22 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't think they did based on all the info out there
Thank God.
Check this YouTube video out. Hideous, fugly stuff.
Last of the Ninth - Photography Site
jamesvenes.com - Blog
by Flashfire on Jul 20, 2008 12:42 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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