Monkeying around with the rest of 2008

by iamawesomer on Jul 18, 2008 11:25 AM PDT

First off, a shoutout to AN's own salb918 for coming up with the spreadsheets that made this possible, thanks Sal (I also see now why you're so upset with the Blanton trade).

The A's kickoff the post All-Star Break part of the season tonight with a three game set at Yankee Stadium, Greg Smith vs. Mike Mussina. Fresh off the trade of Joe Blanton to the Phillies and less than 10 days after trading Rich Harden to the Cubs, some believe the A's have thrown in the towel. But have they really?

One way to look at it would be to see what the A's projections look like for the rest of 2008. To do this I will be using the spreadsheets found in this article by The Hardball Times' Sal Baxamusa. It uses the Marcel projection system, which only knows "a player's stats, the stats of the rest of the league, and the player's age". While this system isn't as accurate as more complex ones such as PECOTA or ZIPS, it still does a fairly good job.

Note, this is what it thinks the players stats will look like for the rest of the season, not what the totals will look like at the end of the season.

On to the numbers:

Kurt Suzuki: .261/.327/.383

Daric Barton: .245/.335/.373

Mark Ellis: .260/.332/.409

Eric Chavez: .247/.324/.429

Bobby Crosby: .253/.312/.373

Jack Cust: .235/.374/.444

Ryan Sweeney: .283/.339/.397

Carlos Gonzalez: .266/.304/.419

Frank Thomas: .260/.366/.463

Rob Bowen: .240/.324/.379

Matt Murton: .276/.344/.423

Mike Sweeney: .269/.331/.431

Rajai Davis: .247/.313/.358

Donnie Murphy: .221/.297/.376

Justin Duchscherer: 3.50 ERA, 1.03 WHIP

Greg Smith: 4.10 ERA, 1.27 WHIP

Dana Eveland: 3.95 ERA, 1.41 WHIP

Sean Gallagher: 4.12 ERA, 1.35 WHIP

Dallas Braden: 3.98 ERA, 1.42 WHIP

Huston Street: 3.38 ERA, 1.14 WHIP

Brad Ziegler: 3.88 ERA, 1.01 WHIP

Joey Devine: 3.66 ERA, 1.26 WHIP

Santiago Casilla: 3.95 ERA, 1.28 WHIP

Alan Embree: 3.70 ERA, 1.34 WHIP

Keith Foulke: 4.32 ERA, 1.33 WHIP

This is what I'd envision the 25 man to look like if everyone was healthy. I went with Murphy over Hannahan (.239/.327/.366) primarily because he can play all across the infield (play is being generous though with that projection), and you can substitute Andrew Brown (3.86 ERA, 1.26 WHIP) in for Ziegler (optioned down) or Foulke (DFA'ed) if you really want to keep Andrew Brown (he's out of options as far as I know). Also since Gio Gonzalez has no MLB stats so I chose Dallas Braden as the 5th starter for the purposes of this exercise.

Astute A's fans will also notice Emil Brown (.259/.306/.391) has been DFA'ed in this scenario, so there's still hope.

As you can see, it is just ugly all the way around. The hitting, even adjusting for park, is atrocious. And this is assuming full health for the team, replace Chavez with Murphy or Hannahan or if Thomas is hurt again replace him with Sweeney and it gets even worse.

The pitching doesn't look so hot either. I'm not exactly sure how Marcel works but if I remember correctly (someone correct me if I'm wrong), but it uses the last 3 season's of a player's stats, with more weight on the more recent seasons. But there is only 2008 data available for a lot of these pitchers (Ziegler, Smith, Gallagher) and thus the projection system doesn't work as well as if they had minor league stats equivalencies to work with. Also, the projected ERA for the balance of the year is actually FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) according to the spreadsheet info, which doesn't take into account the A's awesome defense.

For comparison's sake, Harden and Blanton's number for the rest of the season are 3.28 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 3.75 ERA, 1.36 WHIP. Those numbers are certainly better than the guys who've replaced them (and I'm not sold on Blanton's projection, he's been on the negative side in regards to his FIP – ERA the past few years (-0.61, -0.36, -0.85) despite awesome defense behind him), but are they enough to make up for the awful hitting? Probably not.

So while I don't think the trades the past two weeks have blatantly shown the A's have given up on the season, I think Beane realizes with that lineup and 6 games to catch the Angels in the division (I think the Wild Card is coming out of the East), the playoffs are not an attainable goal this year.

Can't get enough of that A's info? Find more work like this at Oaktown Awesomer's.

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Comments

So Dallas Braden is going to be better than Smith and Gallagher?

I just don’t see how that’s even possible.

http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/

by thejd44 on Jul 18, 2008 11:33 AM PDT reply actions

One problem

is that Marcel doesn’t take into account different roles. Braden is being projected as a starter based largely on innings he pitched out of the bullpen, but in reality a pitchers’ ERAs tend to be something like a full run lower as relievers than as starters.

The other problem is what Paul just said – Marcel is a pretty decent rough estimate for players with a decent amount of major league experience. But the A’s have had 6 or 7 first- or second-year players in their everyday lineup on a lot of days, and will now have 3 or 4 in the starting rotation.

"May a nit suck Cajun geese?" wonders Red. No, we see gnu Jack Cust in a yam.

by andeux on Jul 18, 2008 11:55 AM PDT up reply actions

Bingo.

Children, until we have taught them better, will be perfectly happy with a seasonal round of games in which conkers succeeds hopscotch.

by salb918 on Jul 18, 2008 12:08 PM PDT up reply actions

hunh ...

a pitchers’ ERAs tend to be something like a full run lower as relievers than as starters

Does that explain, reinforce, or confound the notion that a typical reliever is better than a typical tired starter?

I told them 'My game is like a blog.' Because I don't know what a blog is, but it don't sound good. @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jul 18, 2008 1:11 PM PDT up reply actions

Reinforce, I think

One of the points that mgl and tango make in their book (and harp on in their blog) is that managers should take out their starters earlier, and in particular NL teams should just about always pinch-hit for their pitchers starting in the middle innings, since the drop-off from a tired starter to even a mediocre reliever is very small, and the marginal gain from the pinch-hitter is usually larger.

I tend to think it’s a little more complicated than they make it out to be, since shifting 50 or 100 innings to the bullpen over the course of the year could have a cumulative effect that I’m not sure they properly took into account – in theory, most teams should have a large enough supply of decent pitchers to handle the extra work while putting up ERAs in the low-to-mid-4s as relievers but in practice that doesn’t always happen. So there is still probably some real value in starters who can go deeper into games. But I think the bigger value of durable starters is not that they can average 6 1/3 innings/start instead of 5 1/3, but that they can give you 34 or 35 starts instead of 25.

"May a nit suck Cajun geese?" wonders Red. No, we see gnu Jack Cust in a yam.

by andeux on Jul 18, 2008 1:46 PM PDT up reply actions

As PT notes below

There is little data available for a lot of these players, so Marcels dosn’t work as well. Braden and Smith would fall under that case.

by iamawesomer on Jul 18, 2008 11:57 AM PDT up reply actions

Marcel is not a good projection algorithm for this A's roster

It simply does not have enough data to go on for its projections.

There are many teams for which this would be a useful exercise, but unfortunately the A’s are arguably the team for which it would be the LEAST useful.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 18, 2008 11:45 AM PDT reply actions

Yeah, after thinking about it a bit more Marcel's is applicable to the following on the 25 man

Mark Ellis
Alan Embree
Huston Street

Bah.

by iamawesomer on Jul 18, 2008 12:05 PM PDT reply actions

Your projected rotation is flat out wrong

Check out this link. Dana will be starting two days in a row for the rest of the year. Adjust your projection accordingly. Until then, I can’t take you seriously.

by oaktownmario on Jul 18, 2008 12:28 PM PDT reply actions