Midseason Minors Maunderings: Paul's Top 30
by PaulThomas on Jul 18, 2008 11:03 AM PDT
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PrintAll content from this post has been removed in accordance with my decision to leave Athletics Nation. It is my sad duty to report that I no longer wish to create content for, or share it with, this site as currently run. I cannot, in good conscience, square the site's policies with what I consider to be the bare minimum requirements for free and fair discussion, and I have no wish to engage in unfree and unfair discussion. Goodbye.
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Who's Paul?
And why is PT posting a diary on his behalf?
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
Rodriguez walke 7 yesterday, with 6 strikeouts. I hope the spotlight didn't swell
his head, but he didn’t give up any runs, even with 7 walks through 5
so, up 'til a couple weeks ago, was Inoa "Amteus"?
I told them 'My game is like a blog.' Because I don't know what a blog is, but it don't sound good. @('.')@
When his pitching was hitting all the right notes, he was Amadeus
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
will his statistical nemesis be salbieiri?
I told them 'My game is like a blog.' Because I don't know what a blog is, but it don't sound good. @('.')@
I am the patron saint of mediocrity.
Children, until we have taught them better, will be perfectly happy with a seasonal round of games in which conkers succeeds hopscotch.
does that make saint the patron salb918 of same?
I told them 'My game is like a blog.' Because I don't know what a blog is, but it don't sound good. @('.')@
meh,
Antonio Salieri’s “evilness” and his enmity of Mozart is grossly exaggerated. Of course they didn’t always see eye to eye, they came from different musical traditions, different training.
And his pupils included Ludwig Beethoven, Franz Schubert, and Franz Liszt, whom he taught apparently for free.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
Good list
My only quibbles are Cardenas and Weeks. That’s a pretty low ranking for a kid that barely missed the cut on the BA top 25. I know from reading your posts that you’re wary of highly ranking players so far away, but he really is doing quite well in his league and he’s at least two years younger than the vast majority of the players in the league. I personally would have him at 5, giving some decent weight to the opinion of scouts who talk to BA.
Weeks, I think you’ve just got a prejudice there. He went high, but at most 10-12 picks high (and probably less). He was going to be a solid first rounder whoever took him, and you don’t often see middle infielders 40% above league average in OPS in big time college baseball. Trust me, I wasn’t in love with the pick either, but the guy certainly deserves to be ranked ahead of Demel, Outman, and DLS. I’d have him 12 or 13 (and he’d be the last B).
Just noticed Nino Leyja. You’ve got him too high.
All in all, best list I’ve seen on AN.
For what it's worth
I’m pretty sure I remember reading somebody saying Weeks should have been a second rounder, but the name Weeks helped his stock. I just can’t remember if it was one of the minor league guys or a comment from somebody. Either way, I think I agree with PT on Weeks. I’m not a big fan, though I do like him for the future a lot more than Patterson.
Would an infield that has Weeks at 2B and Cardenas at 3B in a few years be so bad? Probably not.
Also, this list makes me realize even more than this organization is soooo pithcing heavy. Not that it’s a bad thing, but I would like to see a big time offensive prospect or two that isn’t a 1B/DH type.
http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/
by thejd44 on Jul 18, 2008 11:59 AM PDT up reply actions
They are pitching heavy
But there really aren’t many teams with 5 solid offensive prospects like the A’s do (Doolittle, Weeks, Cardenas, Cunningham, and Carter, not to mention Brown). The only big problem I see with the offensive prospects is that there isn’t a SS or 3B among them (unless Cardenas moves; Baisley has a chance as well.) I was really hot for the A’s to get Donald from the Phillies, not because I love the prospect, but because there are barely any SS prospects or even major leaguers out there (and they aren’t paying for anyone good), and the A’s need one damn soon. Maybe Petit or Pennignton will surprise.
Overall, the A’s have so many offensive positions locked down for the forseeable future that I think it okay (okay) that there isn’t a lot of depth there in the minors.
locked down for forseeable future?
Outside of the super talented CarGon (left side of the IF’s contracts) who has a spot locked down past ‘08?
I would argue that nearly all the team is replaceable and the few that shouldn’t be (Ellis) are probably gone in a yr. anyways.
Barton hasn’t proven anything at 1B, we don’t have a Long-term DH, Buck is AWOL…
Suzuki and Swooney are the only ones I would think with CG that will have spots for the next 2-3 years… BoCro very likely and Chavez due to contract and injuries.
The Stockton Ports pitching staff is better than the Orioles.
Why should Ellis not be replaceable?
He’s a fantastic defensive player, but mediocre offensively. And he’s in his 30s. It’s possible the A’s don’t have a player to replace him, but he’s actually the exact type of player who look to upgrade on.
http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/
by thejd44 on Jul 20, 2008 10:32 AM PDT up reply actions
Guys who are 2-3 wins over average, like Mark Ellis, do not grow on trees
It would be a fantastic waste of money and resources to try to upgrade from Mark Ellis when there are numerous sucking black holes on the roster.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
I don't think Ellis is 2-3 wins over average this year
And he won’t be going forward.
I’m not saying to dump him, but the comment was that you can’t replace the guy and I think you can replace the production of what Ellis is right now and what he should be over the next few years. That said, it’s probably best to keep him around, deal with his regression based on his age, and upgrade in the areas where you have some truly craptacular players.
http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/
by thejd44 on Jul 21, 2008 12:06 PM PDT up reply actions
He only needs to be average (for a 2b) with the bat ...
to be 2-3 wins above average. As I note below, with a normal babip (for his LD%) , he would be well above average with the bat for a second bagger.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
He's been our best position player the past this year and last
That is exactly not the type of player you look to upgrade on.
The A's colors are green and gold.
Ellis' offense looks poor this year because of a fluky low batting average on balls in play ...
he should hit about 50 points higher over the rest of the year …
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
My reactions:
I can see the argument for ranking Cardenas higher, but given that he doesn’t sound like a plus glove the only hitter I could make an argument is worse is Brown. Who is, I fully recognize, a divisive prospect.
On Weeks, I’m not ranking a guy with zero wood-bat experience a B unless he’s way, way less questionable on the scouting side of things than Weeks is. He has a ton of question marks about his play (will he show any wood-bat power, will he be a decent second baseman, what’s his real baserunning ability, etc.) and until he answers them I’m not going above B-.
Leyja is, I’ll admit, a reach, but he’s shown a ton of upside in his first few games. Even though he has zero HR, he has 8 extra base hits. Those may start turning into HRs down the road. I’d love to know how much the A’s paid to sign him—if he was over slot it would validate his numbers further (a la Dixon).
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
I'm not convinced he "can't stick at 2B"
From what I read, it was more like the Phillies have their 2B for the next 10 years, and they wanted to explore other options with a pretty special prospect.
He’s apparently a super-hard worker and they just asked him to start trying 3B.
Either way, I think his D will come around, but that may be hope more than rationality.
Also, great post but it would have been helpful to see ages for these guys since it helps put stats in perspective. Definitely first rate work.
I'll add the ages later today
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Adding primary position to the name/stats line wouldn't hurt
Most of us here probably know, and you often mention it in the body of your write-ups, but a quick reference would be nice.
All in all though, excellent analysis. What do you think the A’s are going to do with Outman? Think they’ll stick him back in the rotation?
http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/
by thejd44 on Jul 18, 2008 12:37 PM PDT up reply actions
I'd assume so
The team has a ton of left-handed relief depth; there really isn’t any need for another one.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Yep, and it seems a little early to put him on the path to lefty specialist
His only major flaw, it seems, is his control. If he can figure that out a little bit I’d think his stock as a starter would rise pretty quickly.
http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/
by thejd44 on Jul 18, 2008 12:40 PM PDT up reply actions
re
Actually meant to write B-, though thinking about it, I would have Hank Rodriguez at B- also. Also, thinking more, I agree that Cardenas ahead of Carter would be a mistake. Simmons? Either way. Like I wrote, quibbling.
What I read on Leyja is that he came cheap because he didn’t qualify academically for college. Makes sense with how quickly he was signed. He’s intriguing no doubt.
One of the reasons I'm ranking Simmons so high
is that I think that it’s almost impossible for a pitcher with elite command like Simmons to be bad in the Coliseum. It worked for Blanton… at least until this year, when his command inexplicably vanished.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
I'm a big Simmons fan too
Wouldn’t be surprised a bit if he’s the one who starts 09 in the rotation instead of Gio, because of that command. Even in this great stretch from Gio, he’s had 3 games with 4 walks. (and preceded those with a 3 walk and a 5 walk.) The numbers regarding elevation are compelling, but I doubt the A’s would have one bit of trouble leaving him down for half a season next year to really get him nice and refined (and keep him that extra year). Simmons could probably come up today and be somewhere near at least league average, just with his fastball command.
Can’t wait to see both of em really.
I find it hard to imagine a scenerio where they aren't both up next year ...
okay … not that hard to imagine it, but it doesn’t seem wise to me …
I think the A’s should give Meyer one quick, basically last chance to stick in the rotation right now, if he can’t hack it, bring up Gio …
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
Might the A's
Bring up another glove/bat or reliever until the 5th Starter is needed on Tuesday in Tampa Bay?
by Colorado Fan on Jul 18, 2008 3:19 PM PDT up reply actions
One site I found that had signing bonus info
was here , however it only does the first 10 rounds so does not help with your question about Leyja.
Cardenas doesn't need a plus glove to get value for adequately manning second ...
assuming he can adequately man second …
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
Sure, sure
Didn’t mean to imply that he did. I’m just saying that he needed that “bump” to put him ahead of the other hitting prospects in my eyes.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Nice work, PT!
You know who Patterson reminds me most of when I read your analysis? Jose Vidro. snerkticious!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
At Patterson's age
Vidro was already in his 4th season (not 4 years service time) with Montreal and was putting up a 126 OPS+. I’m pretty confident in saying that Eric Patterson will never, ever put up a 126 OPS+ in the majors. I don’t think he can even put up Vidro’s career 108 OPS+.
http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/
by thejd44 on Jul 18, 2008 12:38 PM PDT up reply actions
Very well put together information
Very informative. I imagine that took a lot of time to compose.
I think if it were me
I’d be more inclined to include some of the more upside types like Rosario/Lansford/Banwart at the end of the list over guys like Recker/Horton/Baisley. The latter group strikes me as kinda what-you-see-is-what-you-get at this point in their careers. I’m more inclined to take “hey projectability!” at the bottom of my list over guys who have a reasonable shot at being a solid bench dude and not much else.
But that’s more a nitpick than anything. Not much else to disagree with about the list.
RagingHarden: Yeah if you get 20 starts out of me I'll be shocked. Like, I'll wreck my drawers.
The temptation is strong, I'll admit
but I’m really trying to do this on a value basis rather than some BA-esque tools ranking (which I wouldn’t really be qualified to do anyway). Yeah, Paramore probably has a better chance of being an MLB starter than Recker does. But he has a much worse chance of being an MLB backup, and that makes him less worthwhile as a prospect.
Banwart would absolutely have made the list if he hadn’t tripped off a red flag by injuring his shoulder earlier this season. Ditto Ross.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
I agree with the idea
But I’d probably put Donaldson there too since he’s started hitting again after the trade. He crushed the ball last year (and in college) so whatever happened this first half doesn’t necessarily make him a bad hitter.
Nico prefers hay projectability
I told them 'My game is like a blog.' Because I don't know what a blog is, but it don't sound good. @('.')@
I can't make bale
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
not enough in your ledger?
I told them 'My game is like a blog.' Because I don't know what a blog is, but it don't sound good. @('.')@
Nice List
The list of prospects looks amazing, but what is even more exciting about everything is those names that are no longer eligible. In a different situation, Gonzalez, Smith, Sweeney, Barton, and Gallagher could still be considered big prospects considering their age.
PT - you and this list are one of the reasons AN dominates like the AL in All Star games.
it really helps a chap like me who likes to keep informed but doesn’t have the time or ability to objectively value prospects. It makes me want to get out and see more games at Raley field or head to Stockton. Thanks
If you are going through hell, keep going. -W. Churchill
You're welcome
and the compliment is much appreciated.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Agreed. Good work.
Since I haven’t had time for fantasy baseball this year I’ve become out of touch with minor league musings…. this is good stuff.
by VORP is too nerdy on Jul 18, 2008 1:39 PM PDT reply actions
Question PT
If Beane can get Hunter signed, where would he end up on this list?
Might as well Jump! - Van Halen
Hunter...
jeez, I don’t know. It really depends on what his velocity and command are like. How much the A’s pay him would be a huge signal as to how healthy he’s perceived as being.
As of right this second I’d grade him a C+ and put him around the low 20s. That could go up or down, though.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
from BP today
Pepperdine’s Brett Hunter was considered one of the top arms in the draft, but arm injuries dropped him to the seventh round, where Oakland took a gamble on him. As it turns out, he’s healthy, and Oakland is continuing their evaluation of him as he pitches for the Team USA National Collegiate team, where he’s allowed six hits in 13 1/3 innings while striking out 17, but with 10 walks. He reportedly has a price tag of $2 million.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
Assuming the report is true (and taken the rest of your list as a given)
I’d say about 18 or 19, do you agree?
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
10 walks in 13 innings against mediocre competition?
No, I would not rate him that high. I’d probably drop him down to 23 or 24.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Even with the team being willing to give him close to $2m?
He walked 8 in 14-2/3 for Pepperdine this year and 47 in 82-1/3 last year. It shouldn’t be news that he has control issues.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
Yeah, but in our system 23-24 is a very good player
And PT’s made his decision not to get too hyped about far-away players. That kind of control problem suggests a very raw prospect, and the bonus dollars suggest a ton of upside.
I think a similar valuation to Italiano (who is much more polished but also less projectable) is about right
Eh
I see Italiano and Hunter as more or less the same pitcher. Power arm, poor control, roughly the same age, history of injuries. Italiano has at least shown the ability to get low-A hitters out, so I’d really have to put him behind Italiano at this point.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
BP says he has a price tag of $2 million, not that the team is willing to give him close to $2 million. i hope they are (if he’s healthy), but it’s not the same thing.
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05
Oh
and where is T-Buck? Not considered a prospect or do you think he is finished?
Might as well Jump! - Van Halen
Not a prospect
Way too many ABs/service days.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Buck was a rookie last year,
so he, like Barton, Suzuki, Smith, Sweeney, Gonzalez, and others, is not eligible for this list according to standard baseball prospect list protocol.
Very good list
I don’t really disagree with anything in the top 15, except I might drop Brown down to 14 and move everyone up. Past that I might want to move some favorites of mine up like Jose Garcia and Sulentic up, but they’re really quibbles.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
Cannot see how you move Brown behind Rodriguez
They’re similar prospects (high risk/high reward) but Rodriguez is sucking and Brown isn’t.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Who has more value today - Brown or H-Rod?
Via Trade, I’d say H-Rod would bring back more in return than Corey Brown would. 100+ Heat is pretty valuable, and everyone got to see it w/ their very own eyes at the Futures Game.
by Colorado Fan on Jul 18, 2008 3:26 PM PDT up reply actions
Probably, but ranking guys by trade value would create another list entirely
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Nice List
btw
C. Brown & Demel a little high for my taste. Cardenas & H-Rod a little low.
by Colorado Fan on Jul 18, 2008 5:22 PM PDT up reply actions
thanks Paul
I always appreciate it when anyone on AN does the background work to start up a prospect thread.
I generally agree with you on the pitchers, though I hedge towards favoring Gio because of his proven durability thus far. Because of this I also would have Mazzaro above Leon, and maybe would slide Simmons down to their tier. But that’s a personal nitpicking thing. It’s also why I really liked Blanton going into 2005, being pretty sure that he would be able to shoulder the load, as it were. I also think that Demel is too high on this list, though I do like him and his chances.
On the position guys, I like Cardenas clumped in there with Carter and Doolittle, and like Donaldson much, much more than you (and more than Powell too) do, maybe #15 or so overall (which has a lot to do with the possibility of him playing 3B as well as catching).
I also think that Leyja is too high and Weeks and Patterson are too low, I’ll take Cunningham a shade over Brown (I got to see Aaron a bunch last year so I am biased).
One or more of the shortstops will deserve a much higher ranking than this, but I can’t tell who that might be, so I would agree completely with your grouping of them.
Anyway, grading these guys mid-season is an inexact exercise. I’m sure we’ll hear more stories about who has been playing through injury or what have you after the season. But it is nice to do the work to give the overview of what our system looks like.
I think 15 would be too high for Donaldson
Because he’s still pretty far away. I do think “next 10” is too low. If he keeps hitting with us, it’ll be an easy call in the off-season. Of course, if he cools off again he starts looking pretty bad pretty fast.
it'll be much easier to rate him in October
How about this,
I guess I’d have him #16 or #17 overall
he’s my #7 position prospect as of today after of course:
Doolittle, Carter, Cardenas, Cunningham, Brown, Weeks
I fully expect that someone else will rise high in the last month and a half of the season.
Simmons is pretty durable
He shouldered a lot of innings at UCR (123.2 his junior year). The A’s have handled him with kid gloves so far, but he’s capable of an extended stretch of 7+ inning games.
Demel… he’s basically had two bad stretches in his career. His initial aggressive posting to Stockton last year (when he acknowledged that he was a nervous wreck), and the first week of this season. Outside of those, he has been almost unbelievably dominant. Like, Joba-in-the-pen dominant. His FIP this year, in a notorious hitters’ league, is in the low 2s. Other than that the A’s kinda don’t need more bullpen guys, and can afford to develop him slowly, I don’t know why he hasn’t been jumped a level or even two.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
yeah I like Demel when I've seen him this year
I’m sure the reason they are not jumping up is that they want him to be closing somewhere, and they want Carignan to be closing somewhere too.
I know what you’re saying about Simmons, but all those UCR innings and the kid gloves way he has been handled (as opposed to Mazzaro who is the same age) can be looked at as a slight caution too. I still like him, just tempered by the fact he had the dead arm earlier and hasn’t yet ripped through a full pro season without missing a start.
Keep in mind, though
that the number of innings a team has a guy pitch is sometimes inversely related to how they view him as a prospect.
Greg Smith threw 80 innings in 2005 after coming off a college season where he threw 100 more. Most teams would consider that insane for a top pitcher, but because he was a lower draft choice, Arizona wasn’t worried that he’d explode (because he just wasn’t that important to them, and they needed the info on his capabilities more than to protect his arm).
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
I think the A's need more bullpen guys
Most of the ones they have either recently been injured (Casilla, Devine), are still unproven over time (Ziggy), or potentially traded (Embree, Street). Or they’re named Keith, which is the worst of all.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Also, with the Demel talk, is Devine not a prospect anymore, either?
I’m not sure of his service time on the Braves, but I’m guessing all his time on the MLB Disabled List has disqualified him as a prospect?
witty remark
He's spent very little time on the DL before this season
but he was called up three times by the Braves, so no—he wasn’t even a prospect when the A’s got him.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Good read PT...
As someone who doesnt follow the minors nearly as much as MLB….I enjoyed learning about these guys, esp the bottom half.
Bring back Hammer.
I would put Cardenas above the other hitters
He should have more defensive value than any of them (maybe not Brown), and his bat is pretty much just as good. He definitely belongs ahead of Brown at the very least. He’s hit about the same as Brown this year in a higher level, is two years younger, and his batting line does not raise red flags as to whether he can succeed at still higher levels.
The A's colors are green and gold.
The first statement is not really correct
If Cardenas is a zero at third or a -5 at second (reasonable, no?) and Doolittle is a +10 at first (also reasonable) their defensive values will be essentially identical.
As for the second, I fully acknowledge that Cardenas’s statistical track record is superior to Brown’s. Nevertheless I believe that Brown’s higher upside makes him the better prospect. Just my opinion, of course.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Great job PT!
I’m HOPING Italiano ( in A+) is having problems only because his arm might be getting a little tired due to the lack of work the last 2 years. What do you think?
I too like Jason 'The Fundamentalist' Christian.
But I’ll tell you why he lasted as long as he did in the draft…
Hands of stone.
Notes From The Nat has a new home: http://www.natnotes.com
{ironic/confusing/calculated-to-make-PT's-head-explode iconography of the month}
Jewish actor playing demonic character to illustrate guy named Christian.
I told them 'My game is like a blog.' Because I don't know what a blog is, but it don't sound good. @('.')@
You've obviously seen him more than I have...
Is this fixable? Is he headed for the outfield (like every other prospect, seemingly)? His bat seems like it would play at second, but I’m not sure about in the outfield.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
"His bat seems like it would play at second, but I’m not sure about in the outfield."
This is why I love baseball.
There are so many factors among prospects that will ultimately lead to where they end up on the field as a big-leaguer. And their defense alone may not secure where they play defensively! Haha it probably seems so complicated to an outsider but that is the fun in projecting what prospects may end up being.
Great Post all-around.
witty remark
He could play OF, sure.
Obviously the A’s would prefer to keep as many middle infielders going as possible, and the A’s have had Juan Navarette in Vancouver for some time, so maybe they’re working on him, but it’s pretty much a daily occurrence that Christian bobbles one.
I put it down to lack of confidence (you can see it in his eyes when he’s about to boot one, in all seriousness) and the fact that he’s tall and lanky.
I honestly think he’s a better third base option.
Notes From The Nat has a new home: http://www.natnotes.com
PT, help me out here
Patterson… I keep hearing this he is not great offensively stuff, and then I see a nearly 900 OPS in triple a… what is not great about that? Not being facetious, just looking to understand.
Way too many Ks, relative to BBs ...
and a .391 babip indicates a batting average that is sure to drop …
knock off a minimum of 60 points each from his OBP and Slg and you’re looking at an OPS around .800 … good for a 2ber—barely acceptable for a corner OFer …
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
Truly amazing depth ...
if Gio/Simmons don’t lose their prospect status over the next 2 months, it’s very possible (with PT, I think, underrating Weeks and a couple of other guys who could make the jump with a strong finish) that Sickels’ top 20 list this offseason won’t have a single C on it … I’d be surprised if that has ever happened before …
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
Believe it or not...
The Yankees had 24 C+ or better prospects going into this year. Red Sox had 19. Rays had at least 20 also. I remember being shocked when I saw all three. I don’t remember it happening before (but who knows). A’s actually did have 18 going into 2006 and 2005, which is a bit sobering.
No, he means the A's could have 20 B- or better guys
That would surprise me, but I guess I could see it happening under the right circumstances.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
I doubt he would do it
even if the 20th player is legitimately a tweener, after giving out 19 high grades, you have to be reluctant to pull the trigger on the 20th.
If Duke, Street, Embree, and/or Ellis are all moved
I could see that happening.
http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/
by thejd44 on Jul 20, 2008 10:35 AM PDT up reply actions
I just meant with the players already in the system ...
if Duke and Street are traded, it becomes very, very likely …
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
Impressive diary.
I don’t share your skepticism about Patterson. I’ve seen him play, and I like it. I also think he’s getting dinged for being sensible enough to go to college, and is therefore “old.” That said, your analysis is highly meaningful and well expressed, and I utterly agree about Cahill being #1. Even though some of the pundits don’t buy it, I think he’s going to be a real force in the majors—Cy Young caliber. Nice work.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
PT
great read, really really like it. Keep up the good work.
ohio roots
"Look how far this is from your ‘Moneyball’ theories a couple years ago," Buckley said. "They were drafting all college pitchers. And now who’s the team that got the 16-year-old? Oakland." Chris Buckley, the Cincinnati Reds’ scouting director.
Great job Paul!
Best of all, if you include the next ten and the grads you get a total of 47!
I’d have put Bailey and Donaldson in the Top 30 over the low upside guys at the end of your list though. Maybe Garcia too once he actually pitches half a season.
When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!
I liked Bailey a lot last year
and I wanted to fit him in here somewhere, but… jesus. The guy has been so gopher-ball prone this year, it’s insane.
To be fair, he’d easily make the list if the A’s hadn’t imported 9 or 10 extra prospects this year. His falloff looks a lot worse than it is.
You will notice a strong prejudice against injury-prone pitchers on this list. Guys who get hurt often come back with diminished stuff or command, and until we see evidence that they’re the same guy, I have to treat them as lesser prospects. I liked the decision to pick up Garcia as a lottery ticket, but there’s no guarantee he ever gets back to where he was before.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
1st round picks are like vampires.
Nice work PT. I think you’ve got Brown and Leon rated too high but everyone has their favorites and you’ve been hot for both for a long time. Still, I can see them in the top 15 so it’s more an issue of personal taste.
Patterson, Weeks and Cardenas added in the last 6 weeks. Now all the A’s need to do is sign Ellis to an extension to really muddle up the works!
The monster at the end of this blog.
Bravo, Paul
A great, in-depth look at the A’s prospects. Thanks so much.
For Aners who don’t know which hitters play which positions, unless previously mentioned, who would you see as the most optimal 3B, 2B and SS of the future, assuming no other trades came down the pike? My friends and I see a real paucity at those positions, and with Ellis perhaps walking, Crosby marking time, and Chavez out of baseball, the future seems a bit scary.
Answers:
1. d. None of the Above
2. d. None of the Above
3. c. Cardenas … or Weeks … or Patterson … (or d. None of the Above, with first crack to Gregorio Petit unless he’s already become the answer to #2)
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
With no other trades and no one re-signed, I would hope for the following:
Next year: Petit, Crosby, Chavez
2010: Patterson, Petit, Chavez
2011: Weeks, Petit, Cardenas
This is why I hope they re-sign Ellis, because he really makes the 2009 and 2010 picture look a lot less morbid.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
I see the fourth year as the sticking point
When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 19, 2008 12:51 PM PDT up reply actions
I don't think there's any way Ellis is re-signed
Someone will pony up 4 years, 26-30 million, and it won’t be the A’s.
Petit and Pennington are looking are looking like the long-term shortstop options. One of the two will pan out – and by that I mean, duplicate Crosby’s .700-.720 OPS. In the post-steroid era, that’s not a black hole from your shortstop, especially in a pitcher’s park. Look at how bad Hu is hitting for the Dodgers – a sub-.500 OPS, now that’s a black hole.
The loser of the Petit/Pennington shortstop showdown is a battle royale for 2b next year with Hannahan(?), Murphy(?), Patterson. Between THAT many guys, someone will step up and look attractive by the end of ST ‘09. Someone in that group is gonna be a .730 OPS guy next year.
"The painting was a gift, Todd. I'm taking it with me." -Wedding Crashers
by notsellingjeans on Jul 19, 2008 1:31 PM PDT up reply actions
Patterson would almost certainly be more than a .730 OPS
The question is whether he’ll be enough more considering his defense.
More?
I’m wondering if he can even OPS .700. I really don’t think his time with the Cubs, though a small sample size, was fluke performance. I just don’t think he has any flippin’ clue about how to hit major league pitching. And he’s 25 and hasn’t really demonstrated the ability to make adjustments.
http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/
by thejd44 on Jul 20, 2008 10:37 AM PDT up reply actions
That's fairly preposterous ...
He had 38 ABs this year and 8 last year … you’re basing anything at all on that?
He has succeeded at every level the first full season he has spent there, including an aggressive promotion from Low-A to AA in his second professional season.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
Yep.
His AAA OPS is dead sexy (.875 with Iowa, 1.577 in a tiny sample with Sacto), and I’ve yet to see any meaningful projection (i.e. PECOTA) putting him under a .700. PECOTA’s weighted mean projection for this year is .781.
PECOTA also has a 29% breakout rate and 55% improve rate, which acknowledges that he’s still only 25 (and therefore not in his peak years).
I know it's a small sample size, but I'm not looking at the numbers
Just scouting the player and how he looks in the batter’s box. He just looks very easy to get out when the people pitching to him are major leaguers.
The real point is that he still hasn’t figured it out and he’s 25. And really, he hasn’t shown he’s all that close to figuring it out.
http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/
by thejd44 on Jul 21, 2008 12:09 PM PDT up reply actions
Who would this be?
Mariners, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Astros, Giants? I guess it’s possible, but Ellis isn’t really a high profile catch.
When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 19, 2008 4:04 PM PDT up reply actions
Sure if they eat Kennedy's contract
When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 20, 2008 5:58 PM PDT up reply actions
When you consider defense,
neither Hannahan nor Murphy is a competitive candidate to play second. I suppose Murphy could be the weak half of a platoon there, maybe with Patterson. Ugh. You might as well just play Petit as the weak half if you’re going to do that—I don’t think he’s the sort of guy that you have to ration out his service time. Petit is just a better player than Murphy in all areas, which really makes me wonder why Murphy is even still on the roster. I think he has a better long-term career future as a reliever than as an infielder.
God, just re-sign Ellis. He’s probably not even going to be Type A—the A’s will get damn near nothing for him if he walks.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Murphy fills a revelant niche...
as, “cheap player who you can use as a utility guy, and not worry about stunting his development.”
If Murphy went for seven days without seeing action in a game, it doesn’t really matter. He’s out of options anyway and is at best a utility guy or a platoon player. When Petit goes a week without playing on the big league roster, that’s frustrating – because he could be playing every day in AAA still, becoming a better hitter, and he may be a starter on our team someday. So in AAA you’re helping him become a better player and keeping his service down.
That’s why Murphy makes more sense on the roster now than Petit.
"The painting was a gift, Todd. I'm taking it with me." -Wedding Crashers
by notsellingjeans on Jul 19, 2008 7:35 PM PDT up reply actions
Of course, the irony here
is that maybe Murphy wouldn’t be this bad if his own development hadn’t been stunted by the idiocy of the Royals.
Right now I’m just praying for a Crosby waiver claim. His defense looks more Jeteresque (and his offense less so) every day.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Murphy's always hit in the minors
And the Royals rushed him, then didn’t play him, and by the time the A’s got him he wasn’t really a prospect anymore and missed some key development time.
I still think he has the talent to be, at worst, a multi-billionaire’s Marco Scutaro because he’s far better defensively and has more offensive tools.
http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/
by thejd44 on Jul 20, 2008 10:40 AM PDT up reply actions
Of course, the irony here ...
is that Murphy is older than Patterson, hit less than him in the minors and has been given far more opportunities to fail (which he succeeded in, admirably) at the big league level.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
He was also handled much, much worse than Patterson
The Royals jumped him from A+ to the majors when he was 21, then jumped him from AA to the majors at 22. Neither time was productive, but he also wasn’t getting regular playing time. Plus, when you compare age/league, it’s not like Patterson has really been better. Patterson has mostly only performed when he’s been either playing against prospects his own age or younger. (22 in A, 24/25 in AAA). Murphy was Murphy OPSd .885 in AA at 22, and his numbers with Sacramento last year (.897 OPS) were better than Patterson’s extensive AAA track record.
Another thing to consider: Comparing Murphy’s defense and Patterson’s defense would be like comparing Bill Gates’ bank account with mine.
And calling Murphy older, while true, is misleading. He’s 1 month older. That’s hardly a relevant point.
http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/
by thejd44 on Jul 21, 2008 12:17 PM PDT up reply actions
I would assume Patterson instead of Petit at 2B
And not only because petit will be playing one of the other two positions you have filled by Grade-A injury risks.
Awesome diary, Paul
thank you for all the time you put in to it.
"The painting was a gift, Todd. I'm taking it with me." -Wedding Crashers
by notsellingjeans on Jul 19, 2008 1:32 PM PDT reply actions
This was a great read, Paul.
Thank you for posting it and for the time and research you put into it.
by still bills kingdom on Jul 19, 2008 9:47 PM PDT reply actions
Sweeney, Buck, CarGon, others?
You’ve (understandably) excluded these guys from the list due to ML service time, but where would you put them on the list? Especially interested in Buck.
Also, where do the A’s minor-league prospects rank in the Majors, after all of our moves? I have a feeling we are top-5, but don’t know enough to answer more precisely.
Great job on the post.
by Mark Borgschulte on Jul 22, 2008 7:28 PM PDT reply actions
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