Now with more Cardenas!

Well, you know me. I'm always one for a good controversy-- and there's not much more controversial than ranking prospects. Especially when you're in the enviable position of having a lot of good ones. Let's be honest, at this point last year we were looking at Jason Perry and Jermaine Mitchell, scratching our heads, and saying "This is it?" And while that might provoke a good round of self-flagellation, always a favorite activity among bloggers, it doesn't exactly make for a rousing debate.

Luckily, things have changed around here. Five [ed: six] trades of veterans for prospects have replenished the system. The A's 2007 draft, bolstered by 3 extra picks in the first two rounds, looks exceptional so far. And several once-ballyhooed prospects have come back from the dead (not literally-- Ted Williams is not hitting for AA Midland) to restore their reputations as future major leaguers.

Just a note, I'm going to post season-long stats. My wrists are more important than separating out Corey Brown's first 6 games in Stockton from his Kane County numbers. Sorry.

Without further ado-- to the rankings!

1. Trevor Cahill (Age 20 SP STO/MID: 108.1 IP, 2.66 ERA, 41 BB, 122 K, 2.45 GO/AO) 

Trevor Cahill is pure nasty. Listen carefully and you're starting to hear names like Carmona, Webb, Halladay get thrown around. And Cahill, at the age of 20, probably has not peaked physically. A terrific pitching prospect in all areas. A-.

2. Brett Anderson (Age 20 SP STO/MID: 85 IP, 3.81 ERA, 22 BB, 96 K, 1.89 GO/AO)

Dropping 30 pounds of pudge off his physique has had the expected effects, which is that according to Keith Law he's now working with a plus fastball for a lefty. Combine that with two offspeed pitches and you have a frontline starter candidate. His stats this year are a little screwed up because of an early thumb injury that caused a couple of horrific starts, but he seems to be fully over that. The next challenge he needs to surmount is mental-- specifically, the realization that having what appears to be a fungus on his face will not enhance his star power. A-.

3. Gio Gonzalez (Age 22 SP SAC: 110 IP, 4.34 ERA, 53 BB, 117 K, 1.01 GO/AO)

If Gio was a Colorado Rockies prospect, the fact that he has struggled mightily at high altitudes would be a serious cause for concern. I suspect that his curveball simply doesn't "work" at altitude. Fortunately, however, the American League has no teams above 1000 feet.

Push comes to shove, he's struggled a little with command but still has the tremendous strikeout ability. He will probably be a member of your 2009 Oakland rotation. B+.

4. Sean Doolittle (Age 22 1B STO/MID: .313/.388/.588, 18 HR, 47 BB, 105 K)

We can gain some insight, perhaps, into Sean Doolittle's career progression by studying that of his onetime college chum, Ryan Zimmerman. At UVA, Zimmerman was a dead contact hitter-- just 7 HR in three seasons, because the ballpark there is not at all conducive to hitting homers. His 9 jacks in a half-season at AA Harrisburg exceeded those in 3 times the games at Virginia.

Doolittle has had issues with strikeouts this season, but his K rate is rather out of line with his prior numbers and may represent him trying too hard to hit home runs in the California League's small parks. From reading his periodic blogs, one gets the sense that he is a very team-oriented player who wants to win above all else, even perhaps above developing his hitting approach. If he can combine his contact approach from Virginia with his newly revealed power, on top of what is already an above average glove, he can be a star player. Even if he doesn't, his worst case scenario is Doug Mientkiewicz, not the worst player ever. B+.

5. James Simmons (Age 21 SP MID: 79.1 IP, 3.74 ERA, 18 BB, 70 K, 0.92 GO/AO)

Simmons probably isn't wowing anyone with his stuff, but he's certainly wowing people with his results. Over a recent stretch, he threw 16 innings in 2 starts, allowed 5 baserunners, and gave up zero runs while striking out 16 hitters.

The A's have been careful to protect his arm, which got a lot of mileage in college. There's a good reason for this caution. Injury is basically the only thing that could prevent Simmons from becoming a good MLB pitcher. B+.

6. Chris Carter (Age 21 1B STO: .264/.371/.582, 27 HR, 54 BB, 96 K)

The late and much-lamented Utah Phillips once described a (probably apocryphal) co-worker of his as "this giant dude come in, about five-foot-forty, I mean he was big." Chris Carter is about six-foot-forty. He's huge, he's right-handed, he has 27 home runs this season. And he's 21. That's about all you really need to know. B+.

[ed.: Actually, you might like to know that the team is experimenting with having him play third and outfield as well as first. I'm not terribly optimistic, but who knows, it's worth a try.]

7. Michel Inoa (Age 16 SP No stats)

Michel Inoa is whatever you want him to be. 6-7 at the age of 16. He could be seven feet by the time he stops growing. Right now he has the height of LeBron James and the gangliness of David Bowie, which screams "projectable" to MLB scouts. He is Proteus-- a chameleon, a shapeshifter, a prophet of the future if you can catch him. Well, the A's caught him. B.

8. Corey Brown (Age 22 CF KC/STO: .267/.355/.472, 15 HR, 43 BB, 109 K)

Corey Brown takes his quest to redefine the meaning of the term "fanning" to Stockton. Given that he'll be playing there in July and August, the audience could probably use the breeze.

Since I'm close to running out of cheap Corey Brown/strikeout jokes, he'd better make it through high-A this season.

Speaking seriously, though, he's doing what the team has asked of him and doing it well. I know one fatal weakness can sink a prospect, but it's hard to imagine that a guy with his skills (great power, great bat speed, 12/12 in stolen bases, a center fielder's range and a right fielder's arm) won't be successful. B.

9. Adrian Cardenas (Age 20 2B/3B Clearwater: .309/.374/.444, 4 HR, 28 BB, 42 K)

The pick of the Philly crop. Cardenas has very strong upside as a guy who could potentially hit .300 with 20 HR from a middle infield slot (perhaps 3B is more likely). He's a good ways away from the bigs, though, which tempers his ranking just a tad. He also has 16 steals and 0 CS, which is a nice asset. B. 

10. Arnold Leon (Age 19 RP STO/Saltillo: 38.2 IP, 2.79 ERA, 11 BB, 42 K, 1.40 GO/AO)

Michel Inoa has replaced Arnold Leon as the new Latin American bonus baby for the fans to dream on. Meanwhile, Leon calmly continues to refine his command while clinically shredding lineups of players 10 years older than him.

The Mexican League is not an easy place to pitch-- a lot of the ballparks are at high altitudes-- but he's sure making it look that way. His fastball is already 92 and figures to gain a few ticks by the time he reaches the majors. If he had a stock, I'd be buying it. B.

[Note that while he's pitching as a reliever, the A's see him as a starter long-term.]

11. Aaron Cunningham (Age 22 CF MID: .299/.375/.462, 7 HR, 29 BB, 73 K)

Aaron Cunningham is kind of the anti-Corey Brown-- he's put up similar numbers at higher levels, but the scouts have consistently graded him worse.  He's not very "toolsy" and not very projectable. That said, I'll take his production right now, thanks. No projection required. If he's a capable CF like the A's think he will be, that's just gravy.

Cunningham has been admirably consistent in his statistical assault. If he can maintain that consistency to the majors, he should easily beat out Josh Phelps as the best Alaskan position player in MLB history. He's got a long way to go to be the best overall player from the state, though. Curt Schilling was born in Anchorage. B.

12. Vince Mazzaro (Age 21 SP MID: 119.1 IP, 2.11 ERA, 32 BB, 89 K, 1.67 GO/AO)

Vince Mazzaro was a guy I identified as a breakout candidate at the end of last year, a year in which he struggled but survived the California League at a young age with some semblance of dignity. I sure wasn't expecting this kind of performance, though. He's made himself a serious prospect this year, although the low strikeout rate indicates that he's not likely to be an ace. B-.

13. Sam Demel (Age 22 RP STO: 45.1 IP, 2.79 ERA, 24 BB, 64 K, 1.52 GO/AO)

I would say Demel's stats in Stockton look like video game numbers, but in truth video game stats tend to be the other way around (absurdly low ERAs compared to the number of strikeouts). This is one of those things that bugs me about baseball video games-- they're so sabermetrically inept. Clutch may not be proven to exist in MLB, but it sure exists in MLB 2K8. It would be nice if someone made a mod which reset all the scores in the nonsense stats like "clutch" to some neutral value. Where was I? Oh. Demel. He's good. Really good. Like, "Closer of the future" good. B-.

14. Henry Rodriguez (Age 21 SP STO/MID: 84.1 IP, 5.23 ERA, 59 BB, 108 K, 1.29 GO/AO)

Why is Rodriguez this low? Two reasons. First, I think he's ending up as a reliever, and as a reliever I'm not convinced he's better than Demel. Second, although he seems to be over his bout of Chuck Knoblauch Syndrome following his demotion to A-ball, the magnitude of his implosion in AA is hard to overstate and distinctly worrying. B-.

15. Fautino De Los Santos (Age 22 SP injured, out for the season)

Blowing out your elbow will do this to your stock. I loved DLS entering the year, but he's going to have a tough couple of years ahead of him to make the majors. His upside is still enormous, and it's holding him up here. B-.

16. Josh Outman (Age 23 SP/RP Reading: 70.1 IP, 3.20 ERA, 37 BB, 66 K, 0.89 GO/AO)

No huge upside and continuing command difficulties make Josh Outman one of the lesser arms in the A's high minors as of the Blanton trade, but he's whiffed a lot of hitters and generally had an OK season. His numbers aren't that different from Dana Eveland's, although his value wasn't depressed by a catastrophic major league stint. He adds to the A's rotation depth as early as next season. B-.

17. Jemile Weeks (Age 21 2B very few games played)

The fact that Weeks is #17 on this list, while Brett Wallace (picked one choice after him) is probably #3 or #4 on St. Louis's list, says a couple of things: first, this is a hell of a deep system, and second, I really didn't like this pick at all. I mean, he's a nice player. I was expecting something more out of the #12 overall pick than "a nice player." I'm not real enamored of his upside, and I don't think he's a terrifically polished product either. Much preferred Aaron Hicks as a pick, and he's sure looking better so far. C+.

18. Jesus Guzman (Age 24 2B/3B MID/SAC: .340/.392/.540, 15 HR, 33 BB, 66 K)

I haven't been around AN since the inception, but nobody has inspired quite as many "who the f**k is this guy?" posts since I've been here as Jesus Guzman, who did very little as a prospect before 2007, when he had a nice season in A-ball. The Mariners apparently weren't impressed enough to keep him around. This year he utterly destroyed AA-Midland, more or less forcing the A's to call him up to Sacramento. He hasn't really gotten on track there and appears to be either injured or in the doghouse right at the moment, but he has probably earned a 40-man roster spot. C+.

19. Rashun Dixon (Age 17 CF AZL: .263/.317/.553, 4 HR, 5 BB, 29 K)

I am on record as saying that someone had better be pretty special if you're ranking them highly on a prospect list and they're below high A-ball. Well, Rashun Dixon is pretty special. If you aren't familiar with his situation, he signed a letter of intent to play football with Mississippi next year, causing a lot of teams to give up on him. The A's drafted him in the tenth round, then paid him sandwich-round money ($600,000) to sign. He's very raw (see those strikeout #s), but supremely talented. C+.

20. Landon Powell (Age 26 C SAC: .227/.344/.432, 12 HR, 42 BB, 71 K)

I'm keeping the faith on the talented but injury-prone catching prospect. Powell's season stats look worse than they are, depressed by a freakishly low BABIP in the first month-plus of the season (which also happened to be the period when he was still hobbling around the bases, and no, I don't think that's a coincidence). I doubt he'll hit for average, but good isolated OBP and isolated power numbers, plus good defense at catcher, continue to hold my attention. C+.

21. Nino Leyja (Age 17 SS AZL: .349/.453/.540, 0 HR, 12 BB, 8 K)

A midround pick out of high school, age 17, and producing offensively at the shortstop position? Sign me up, Scotty. Even if it's only rookie ball, he's started very strong. I'm particularly a fan of the BB/K ratio, which shows remarkable polish for a guy straight out of high school. C+.

22. Eric Patterson (Age 25 2B/OF Iowa/CHN/Sac: .284/.362/.530, 10 HR, 19 BB, 60 K)

Prospect-wise, the guys the A's got for the Harden deal are pretty darn unimpressive. Patterson has been a good, not great, hitter in the minors, but he basically has no position, as he's mediocre at best at second base and terrible in the outfield. Frankly, he might be best served as a DH for a team that needs OBP more than slugging (eg Texas) and has a lot of power in the field positions. Oakland is emphatically not that team. C+.

23. Andrew Carignan (Age 22 RP STO/MID: 41.1 IP, 1.52 ERA, 30 BB, 55 K, 1.17 GO/AO)

A flameballer with what might be euphemistically termed "developing" secondary pitches, Carignan has burned through the low minors. Another closer prospect, though he needs to cut his walk rate a lot. C+.

24. Craig Italiano (Age 21 SP KC/STO: 80.1 IP, 3.14 ERA, 45 BB, 88 K, 1.23 GO/AO)

It's taken Italiano about 3 weeks to drop about 10 places on this list. Why? Well, look at his stats since he was called up to Single-A Stockton. On second thoughts, don't. It's not a pretty sight. Either he has Steve Blass Disease or he's injured, neither of which are very pleasant alternatives. C+.

25. Matt Sulentic (Age 20 LF STO: .295/.356/.455, 8 HR, 28 BB, 82 K)

Sulentic is a very similar hitter to Dustin Pedroia, except that he plays left field instead of second base. Which is kind of a big deal, unfortunately. I like his stats but I can't see how he's better than league-average in the majors. C+.

26. Jeff Baisley (Age 25 3B SAC: .289/.375/.491, 8 HR, 27 BB, 34 K)

Jeff Baisley seems to be afflicted with chronic bad luck, also known as Oakland A's Disease. In theory, this should help him fit right into the clubhouse. In practice, it's hard to hit when you have a fractured foot. He'd be your starting third baseman today if he was healthy. C+.

27. Cliff Pennington (Age 24 SS MID/SAC: .267/.392/.348, 2 HR, 74 BB, 59 K)

Someone once compared first round picks to zombies. Or was it hydras. Trolls? Something about never quite being dead, anyway. Pennington isn't quite dead yet. He's having a good year, although his OBP is preposterously high considering his batting average and slugging percentage. C+.

28. Josh Horton (Age 22 SS STO: .287/.369/.343, 1 HR, 42 BB, 63 K)

I'm a confessed sucker for that Placido Polanco skill-set (grinding OBP guys playing the middle infield positions) and I want to rate Horton higher than this, but his slugging percentage is an eyesore. C.

29. Jason Christian (Age 21 SS VAN: .340/.421/.480, 2 HR, 13 BB, 30 K)

I liked this pick in the recent draft, and the Michigan product hasn't disappointed (except in the field) showing off some nice all-around game. Reading what the scouts said about him and looking at his stats, I'm surprised he lasted as long as he did. C.

30. Anthony Recker (Age 24 MID: .287/.353/.447, 7 HR, 32 BB, 103 K)

More or less the same as before, but a bit older. He hasn't fallen off the prospect radar screen, but he's not really looking like an MLB starter either. I'd still take him over Guillermo Rodriguez. C.

The Next Ten:

Andrew Bailey, Wes Bankston, Travis Banwart, Josh Donaldson, Jose Garcia, Jared Lansford, Jermaine Mitchell, Petey Paramore, Robin Rosario, Tyson Ross

Sorry, you're no longer eligible:

Carlos Gonzalez, Daric Barton, Greg Smith, Ryan Sweeney, Gregorio Petit, Jerry Blevins, Brad Ziegler

Discuss to taste.