He’s one of those pitchers who just knows how to get people out without blowing them away and he has an aggressiveness to the way he pitches that you just don’t see with someone like Zito.

With the young pitchers coming up through the A’s system, it’s easy to make the case that we should just let them be the ones when they get up here. I think the staff needs one proven vet who knows how to get the job done and actually does it. Blanton is not the guy, at least not now. Smith, Eveland and Gallagher are all young and inexperienced by comparison. They’re all at rookie level.

I say give Duke an extension for a few years. He can be a leader by example. The health may be a question but I think he can handle the rest.

At the same time, it’s going to be important for the A’s to sign certain people and make sure they’re around instead of continuing the revolving door program.

How his trade value is affected by the fact that he is now at a point where he has surpassed his career high in innings at the major league level. If I am trading for him, I am surely worried about a tiring effect as he gets more and more innings past what he has thrown in the Majors. I truly wonder if he has has 200 great innings in him or if at some point, he is going to hit a wall in his first year as a starter and his first 100 IP will be significantly better than his second 100.

I love Duke and love how well he has pitched and thought he would be great for us this year (although of course not THIS good)......but I sure would be wary as a buyer of paying a lot for him hoping he was going to throw 200 IP and then start games in the playoffs, thus really piling on the innings. He just doesnt have a track record as a starter….he might be fine the whole way, but hard to give up a lot without a true track record. Not to mention, he threw 16 IP last year….hard to imagine he stays this fresh all year.

Just a thought…..

much as I love having Duke with the A’s, if someone makes a really good offer it would be difficult to refuse (and Beane probably wouldn’t refuse).

at the end of the season in an “avoid arbitration, three year deal” type of negotiation? If you do an extension now, you’re negotiating with a player while he’s at his statistical peak – why negotiate an extension with the major league’s ERA leader when you can negotiate with the same pitcher who has a 2.70 ERA or whatever Duke may finish the season with?

There is no reason the A’s have to negotiate with Duke now when he’s under contract for 2009 – if they want to keep him and extend him, how would it be in the A’s best interests to talk figures today instead of in October?

New boots or contracts ?

Justin the Duke’s (or Duck if you are Joe Buck) BABIP is oscenly low no? Isn’t he really over performing? Wouldn’t he bring more for next year than Blanton?

(and I enjoyed our discussion in person along these lines at AN day, albeit across the aisle and shouting to hear each other). :)

First of all, I love that you mentioned the murkiness of the “two first-round draft picks”. That’s continually written in the mainstream press, but it’s sort of a shortcut that does a disservice to the reader. It makes free-agent compensation seem more attractive than it really is.

As most ANers know, the first 15 overall picks are protected, which could have the effect of emboldening those 15 teams to make the most competitive FA offers, since they give up less value in terms of prospects than, say, the team that would’ve had to give the 16th or 17th overall pick.

For those who are advocating letting Duke walk in FA, assuming he never gets hurt in the next year in a half, his draft pick compensation will probably be something like the 35th overall pick (the supplemental pick), and the 55th overall pick. That’s assuming 15 Type A comp picks that sign with other teams, and that the 10th worst team record-wise in MLB signed him.

At pick 35, you’re not getting a mercurial, high-price talent that slipped only due to bonus demands, because the Yanks or Tigers or Red Sox already took him at the end of the first round with their pick. You’re getting two picks at 35 and 55 that have some legitimate question marks. You’re paying ~$1 million for the supplemental pick and ~$800K for No. 55, and for slightly less than 2 million you’re far from guaranteed to be getting a future major leaguer. Bottom line, it’s not a sexy haul, IMO.

Via trade, after you’ve seen a few extra years of maturity and performance with/against wood bats and grown men, you can get minor leaguers who you know will be major leaguers. They have enough of a performance record that you can reasonably forecast their future – not perfectly, but far better than you can an amateur’s future. That’s why I’m almost universally in favor of trading guys rather than letting them walk in FA – because in return, you’re getting guys you’ve had a better chance to evaluate and project.

The rare exception to that would be Ellis, because, as luck would have it, no contender is looking to upgrade second base during the pennant race, so he will garner more by walking than he would via trade.

Back to the Duke…

I think if the A’s package Duke and Street and Embree, they can get the kind of high-impact (top 20 prospect overall) minor league bat they desire, like Rasmus of the Cardinals. Ideally he’d be a right-handed hitter, though. With LaPorta out of the question, who are the three best right-handed hitters in the minor leagues?

Thankfully they did break up soon afterwards. Top 30 Clash songs (all UK versions):

1) Charlie Don’t Surf
2) Career Opportunities (1977)
3) Guns of Brixton
4) I’m So Bored with the USA
5) Lost in a Supermarket
6) White Riot
7) Bankrobber
8) Rudie Can’t Fail
9) London Is Burning
10) Tommy Gun
11) Spanish Bombs
12) English Civil War
13) The Call Up
14) Clampdown
15) In Hammersmith Palais
16) Janie Jones
17) Hitsville UK
18) The Card Cheat
19) Deny
20) Police On My Back
21) London Calling
22) Police and Thieves
23) Somebody Got Murdered
24) Capital Radio
25) Safe European Home
26) Sound of the Sinners
27) What’s My Name
28) The Right Profile
29) The Magnificent Seven
30) Armagideon Time

This is off the top of my head. I’d probably modify it if I had the time to think about it.

Great job, as always, grover, on breaking down all the variables.

I thought Duke was one of the most valuable A’s as a member of the ‘pen, but I had serious doubts in the offseason about his durability as a potential starter. He’s held up remarkably well (better than I expected), but nsj’s caveat above w/r/t letting Duke walk applies even more greatly (as in, presenting a greater risk profile) to extending him.

While I also agree w/CO Fan (that Beane holds certain assets that are likely undervalued by the market in terms of their price:perf ratio) that Duke’s absolute trade value is limited, I agree with grover that his relative value is absolutely maxed out right now.

And while PT is right that shipping Duke out now without getting a MLB-ready arm in return weakens the ‘09 projected rotation, the injury- and decline-risk profiles mitigate that loss somewhat.

for making a strong argument for what’s bound to be a difficult sell here on AN.

P.S. I think you have a real future in push polling …. “If the election were held today, would you vote for [candidate A] or be incredibly stupid and vote for that loser [candidate B]?”

Why would Duke sign for so little? Seriously - if his arm is still attached to his body in the winter of 2009-2010, he will be able to get a 3 year, $30m dollar deal. That’s chump change. You’re barely giving him any additional security at all - but if he continues to perform well (not sub 2 era well, but better than average well) he could get more than that, substantially more if he performs very well. Why would he do it? It just doesn’t make sense.

If he would do it, hell yes, sign him on the dotted line. But he won’t, so ask the question again with 4 years and $45-50m on the table and the discussion will be more apt and less obvious.

get a Longria/LaPorta type impact bat, near major league ready.

and I think how valuable Duke looks to other teams is extremely hard to gauge. He’s had about three months as a successful starting pitcher, and some injury issues in the past, which should scare some teams (combined with his age). If it does, he’s more valuable here, because I have absolutely no question his production will exceed his expense, quite possibly more than any starting pitcher in baseball.

I favor the three-year deal now approach. Sure, he’s 30 now, but pitchers don’t decline as fast as hitters, and let’s face it—Duke doesn’t have a fastball to lose. If we sign him to a 3/30 and he stays healthy, he’s an absolute steal compared to market rates.

The other factor is his trade value compared to Blanton. If teams are offering the same packages for both, put Joe on the next flight out of town before they change their mind.

Of course, they are only prospects. Until they take the mound with the big league club for a start or 7, none of us will know whether or not they are all they cracked up to be.

Which is why I figure the A’s need a veteran in the rotation, an “anchor” guy. I think we have a tendency to say things like, “Gio/Cahill/Anderson/Smith/Inoa will be teh shit” without taking into consideration the variety of factors that could keep them from succeeding at the major league level (injury, voodoo curse, Homer Bailey syndrome). Duke is one of the few out-and-out proven commodities on this team. I’d like to see him sign an extension.

I don’t doubt that teams are interested in Duchscherer. Not with the lowest ERA in the majors.

From the A’s perspective, though, Duchscherer’s value will never be higher than it is right now; last week exactly the same could have been said about Harden, which of course is why the A’s traded him. Granted, Duchscherer is a fine pitcher and generally healthy until last year. But a 1.82 ERA, really?

As you might guess, he’s been exceptionally lucky this season, with a statistical profile more suggestive of a 3.35 ERA. But if the A’s were to trade him and Street and Blanton, can you imagine the depth of their young players over the next two or three years? Of course, that would also mean officially giving up on this season.

In a prerecorded segment on last night on HBO’s “Costas Now,” Indians GM Mark Shapiro addressed MLB’s economics:

The reality still exists that you’ve got these enormous revenue gaps that allow for highly profitable $200 million payrolls for the Yankees, and for us an $86 million payroll. … The system’s not even close to leveling the playing field. … I think you’re developing an extreme elite right now; everybody else is going to have to go through cycles of ups and downs.

Now, you can argue with Shapiro if you like, but I can tell you that his opinion is not uncommon, and I suspect you’d have a hard time finding things about which Shapiro and Billy Beane disagree. On this thing, I suspect they agree that losing for two or three years might be a precondition for winning for two or three years. But at the moment it’s hard to figure which cycle the A’s are in, because in 2006 they won 93 games, in 2007 they lost 86 games, and in 2008 they sport the third-best run differential in the American League. Which also makes it hard to figure what they’ll do with Duchscherer, Street and Blanton.

Duke’s “value” just shot straight thru the roof! I really hop he stays…....I’m all good for building up the depth of the farm system and getting really good, younger players in trades. But was was mentioned several times above, at some point, when do you say, “Enough is enough!”?

What are the A’s gonna do after they trade all of their players? (I hear the concession workers at the Coliseum are very undervalued in the current market…..)

(Smartass…..)

:J)