Hello AN and here's my two cents.
by stranahanahan on Jul 15, 2008 1:53 PM PDT
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PrintHi to everyone, been reading posts and such on AN here for awhile and just decided to start stating my opinion. Here goes:
First off, Oakland is still in it this year, I really believe that. Whether it be the division or the wild card. Tampa Bay is fading fast and they don't have enough guys with several full seasons under their belts and guys will start to tire (see Scott Kazmir). Boston will win the division and Oakland will compete with Tampa for the wild card. Oakland has been through the worst with the DL, etc, and still show they can win ballgames, it's time to see if Tampa can do that. As far as the Yankees, don't think they will make a huge push unless they can get some help with the offense and pitching. I also think the Angels have peaked, we shouldn't see the same play from them. There starting pitchers are all guys who are having amazing years with nothing to show before this year (except for everyone's favorite douche John Lackey). K-Rod is going to start blowing some saves, the whole league should be gunning for him after ridiculous displays on the mound (see his celebration after Sunday's game). Plus, they will learn that paying for overpriced free agents doesn't win you ballgames, plus it just seems like they aren't having fun out there, it's a dugout of egos....
My other thoughts: Let's sign Ellis and Duchsherer to extensions, they both deserve our loyalty and have expressed a desire to stay and grant some sort of hometown discount. And in regards to the Harden trade, I think it was great. Gammons and other sources had repeatedly made it clear that the Cubs had said Gallagher was untouchable, so they were high on him. I think we could also see some real surprises from Donaldson and Patterson. All three of the position players could be seen as potential trade bait if the A's are in the race in the coming years.
Well I have plenty more I could say but this is my initial thoughts at the moment. Just my opinion so don't rip me apart, we're all rooting for the boys in Green and Gold!
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Two more cents
It is amazing that we continue to win our fair share of games while seeming to overachieve as a group year after year, and thereby so ironic how some of our losses are so painful to watch. How is it that the Angels score a runner from second base on and infield hit , and we have trouble getting some one in on clean base hit to the outfield? Of course all teams struggle at times throughout the season but we don’t observe them on a regular basis. That’s why our inability to just make contact at the plate when needed, and brain dead baserunning miscues hurt so bad. It hurts so much because we love our A’s too much and pull for them so hard. We are definitely still in it and hopefully management is dedicated to winning it. I keep praying that our coaching staff will eventually help us overcome our pattern of not maximizing our offensive opportunities.
Let’s go A’s
Just out of curiousity
how come a lot of people seem to think the Rays will fade to inexperience but we’ll keep going?
While I think they could make the playoffs via as the division winner or wild card. I fear they’d lose early in playoffs. I get to see the Sharks do this every year and so I’d rather they not trade prospects for a big bat or two just to lose in the ALDS.
Easy
Because we’re A’s fans.
The Rays have already started fading, and our pythagorean record is significantly better than our actual. We’ve also dealt with more injuries than them.
Our pythagorean record is distorted by a funky run distribution
I made a chart a couple of weeks ago but didn’t know how to post it. We have far more low run (0-1) games than any other contender, but we also have as many or more games with 8+. Where we’re well behind is in the sweet spot of 5-6 run games that almost guarantee victory with a solid pitching staff. We’ve all witnessed the A’s ability to blow a game out then follow with two straight stinkers. They need a more consistent offense and I think that starts with having two guys at the top of the order who get on base at a .380-.400 clip. The collective OBP of the A’s leadoff hitters is .269! It’s #2 hitters, .317. Not a way to put up consistent offense.
That's true
But I think it’s more likely that an offense with a blowout/shutout propensity will smooth out their production than stop scoring runs altogether.
It’s entirely possible we’ll regress back to our pessimistic fan expectations, but it’s worth noting that a lot of projection systems had us playing at least as well as we are.
one of the reasons that Pythagorean wins works
is that, over a large enough sample, your runs scored distribution will eventually converge to the correct distribution. This is not exactly an application of the central limit theorem, but it’s similar. Now, you could end up with a truly broken distribution if your season consists of two large sub-samples where you fielded teams with dramatically different talent level. Then you could theoretically get a run-scored distribution with two peaks: one at a higher score for the “good” team and one at a lower score for the “bad” team. But you would really need a dramatic break. Any slow drifts, or a continuum of team talent levels throughout the season, would probably stabilize the distribution.
So, if the A’s are missing out of 5-6 run games so far, I would chalk that up to small sample and say that the expectation for the season going forward is that we will have a typically shaped run distribution and the best estimate for our average runs/game is just the value that we saw in the first half (4.3 runs/game). Note that I am not claiming that we will make up our missing 5-6 run games. I’m just saying that our strange looking run distribution can probably be attributed to chance.
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