Athletics Nation Interviews MLB Minor League Writer Jonathan Mayo
Well, it's the All Star break and I figured it would be a good time to check in on the progress of many of our prized minor league prospects since that's the direction our beloved green and gold are going.
Jonathan Mayo covers the minor leagues and the draft for MLB.com. I thought I would interview him regarding our A's prospects since that's his regular beat. I happened to send this interview to him before the Harden deal so I didn't get a chance to ask him about the prospects the A's got back from the Cubs. Maybe he'll stop by and offer his take.
Enjoy!
Blez: First of all, have you seen Michel Inoa? What do you think of the A's going out and beating everyone out for this guy?
Jonathan Mayo: I have not seen him. The A’s going out and getting him has to be one of the bigger surprises in recent memory, doesn’t it? I mean, the A’s just don’t do things like this. The whole process has been fascinating and it looks like Beane’s personal touch paid off. I know there are people out there who feel something odd occurred in the negotiating process, not necessarily with Oakland, mind you, but with what happened with other teams involved. Unfortunately, the whole international signing process is so difficult to monitor, there’s a lot that goes on unseen and a lot of rumors that end up being generated as a result.
Mayo: That’s the thing that’s so scary about Inoa. He’s so big already and the fact he could add an inch or two is frightening. He’ll also fill out some and how he handles that growth will determine just how good he’ll be. I think he’s got as much upside as any pitcher to enter the pro game we’ve seen in years.
Mayo: Trevor Cahill -- He's gone from a decent prospect to an outstanding one with his 2008 season so far. Pitching in Double-A and a recent trip to the Futures Game are some nice feathers in his cap.
Brett Anderson -- Coming out of high school, he wasn't your typical prep pitcher. Because of his father, a long-time college coach, he really knew how to pitch and looked more like a pitchability college lefty type. Showed a nifty pickoff move in the Futures Game, that's for sure. In Double-A, he's already way ahead of the curve.
Henry Rodriguez -- Created as much buzz as anyone at the Futures Game by hitting triple-digits and sitting in the upper-90s on the radar gun. He might be a short reliever when all is said and done, but I'd like to see the A's exhaust the possibilities/opportunities for him as a starter before making that move.
Gio Gonzalez -- What can I say? I still love the guy. Stuff-wise, still among the best LHP in the Minors. Still very young. It's going to click at some point -- maybe it's starting right now -- and when it does the A's will have an outstanding southpaw starter on their hands.
Michel Inoa -- I know others might rank him more highly right away based on upside/ceiling, but color me skeptical. I like to see a guy pitch in affiliated baseball at least for a little before going too nuts over him.
Honorable mention: James Simmons, Craig Italiano
Mayo: I saw him pitch live in the Futures Game and, obviously, that's just one inning of work so you can't really extrapolate too much over that. Like I mentioned above, he's made a big step forward with his 2008 season and I think opinions are changing about what his ceiling might be. That will continue to evolve if his second half continues the way his first half went. I think he probably is a No. 2 or probably more likely a No. 3 and that's nothing to sneeze at. But just what he's done this year shows how difficult -- and risky -- it can be to try and project pitching prospects, especially those who are that young.
Mayo: I'd start with Carlos Gonzalez if this were the beginning of the year, but since he's in the bigs, I won't count him...
Sean Doolittle -- Those U.Va. guys... you think they don't have power and then they turn pro. A .560 SLG isn't too shabby and he's a guy who'll hit .300 every year. Nice to see him get promoted to Double-A... and start out so well.
Chris Carter -- Yes, he swings and misses quite a bit, but he's got the most power in the system, leading the organization with 25 homers at age 21 in High-A ball. Looks like he's made some adjustments and has his average up over .260 now.
Aaron Cunningham -- Certainly doesn't seem to be fazed by switching organizations. Can hit for power, average and can run. And he'll run through a wall for you.
Matt Sulentic -- He's still only 20 and he seems to have a pretty good handle on how to swing the bat in the California League. Not sure how much power he'll develop, but there's more there, but he's going to be a guy who hits for average and gets on base.
Jesus Guzman -- I know he's "older" at age 24 and he hasn't done much in Triple-A thus far, but he is leading the organization in average and RBIs. He plays all over the infield and even has seen time in the outfield in the past, so maybe he's a super-sub with pop.
Blez: How good does the Dan Haren deal look to you since you're a guy that focuses so much on prospects?
Mayo: It was hard not to love the deal immediately and the performances of those players certainly makes it look even better. C-Gon's already producing in the big leagues, Greg Smith and Dana Eveland are contributing big-time as well, Anderson has moved up a level, Cunningham's hitting well in Double-A at a young age and Carter, as mentioned above, leads the organization in homers. Not too shabby.
Mayo: No on Smith, a little on Eveland. After seeing Smith pitch in the Arizona Fall League, I really thought he'd be a real good big-league pitcher, and soon. He kind of is what he is, you know? A lefty who commands and mixes speeds well. But he's so smart on the mound and goes right after hitters and even if he doesn't have a huge ceiling, he's plenty good right now. As for Eveland, I guess I thought it might take him a little time to settle in. He kind of had been shuttled back and forth between starting and the pen
Mayo: I always have a hard time evaluating a draft class this soon after the draft, especially since the signing deadline isn't for another month. They were kind of conservative up top, though Ross has the potential to provide a big arm if he's healthy and Weeks is a nice player. They did take some chances later on with some guys who slipped because of signability concerns (strong college commitments). If they actually get some of those in the system, then I'd grade it as a good draft, up from just OK.
Blez: Javier Herrera has seemingly been in the A's system since I think he was born. He's always been regarded as a raw talent. Do you think we'll ever see him blossom?
Mayo: For as long as he's been in the system, he's still only 23. If he could stay healthy for more than 10 minutes, maybe things would start coming together. But he's never even had a 400-AB season. It's kind of hard to turn that kind of potential into performance if you can't get on the field. I think he's got the chance to still blossom if he can play consistently and the A's don't give up on him. He's still on the 40-man roster, but he's also only got another year before he could be a six-year free agent. The clock is ticking, but I think he still has a future.
Blez: How quickly do you think the A's rotation will turn over from what it is now to something more like Anderson, Cahill, Gonzalez, Rodriguez and Inoa? Are we looking at when the team moves into the new ballpark in 2012 or sooner?
Mayo: I think the first three will be in the rotation by then, barring injuries. Rodriguez still could end up a reliever, so we'll have to wait and see on that one. Inoa? Who knows -- he maybe one of the largest wild cards the game has ever seen. The good news is the A's have so many other good young arms they can afford to let him develop at the rate he needs to. No rush jobs will be needed there.
Blez: Thank you very much for your time. AN appreciates it.
About Jonathan
Mayo covers the Minor Leagues and the draft for MLB.com. He's got two blogs there, one on the Minors (minors.mlblogs.com) and one on the draft (draft.mlblogs.com). He's also the author of the book Facing Clemens, a pre-Mitchell Report look at the right-hander through the eyes of hitters who have faced him. More information on that can be found at www.jonathanmayo.net.
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Cliff Pennington
I think it’s possible he might replace Ellis at second base next year.
True,he still has no power but his OBP is .406 ,and if i remember correctly he has a good glove,so he could be nice leadoff hitter.
I know he had not done much before being promoted,but maybe he finally figured out something.
by totoum on
Jul 15, 2008 7:53 AM PDT
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I'd be shocked if it's Pennington and not Patterson
Pennington’s stats would be OK if they were MLB stats, but they aren’t. Someone who can’t hit AAA pitching is very unlikely to be able to hit MLB pitching.
Patterson may not be a gold-glove candidate, but he can at least produce offensively in AAA.
by nevermoor on
Jul 15, 2008 8:43 AM PDT
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Pennington is like the infield version of Reggie Willits
except that the A’s inexplicably spent a first-round pick on him.
I think he’ll have a decent career, but much more in the “utility guy/pinch runner” mold than as an actual starter.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Jul 15, 2008 9:21 AM PDT
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i was thinking..
pennington could be similar to ryan theriot, who is obviously having a career yr, but similar skill set, pennington better defense. theriot didnt figure it out or get a chance till he was 28
he repeated the same levels till he finally did well , also dropped switch hitting
by Asfan4ever723 on
Jul 15, 2008 10:53 AM PDT
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Ryan Theriot really kind of sucks
That doesn’t make me feel much better about Pennington…
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Jul 15, 2008 11:22 AM PDT
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yeah
i am not a theriot fan at all really. then again, the last time i saw him play was when he tried to make a throw from on his back to second with the bases loaded, and three runs scored
"It's not my fault your team's so shitty." -Steve Friend, head coach, Chabot College, to Laney College's head coach, who asked why we scored so many runs after we beat Laney 30-3 in 2006
by flipgatey3 on
Jul 15, 2008 12:05 PM PDT
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Eh.
Theriot has a career EQA of 260. MLB Average is 260, MLB average for SS is usually around 250-255. For SS, It is 250 in 2008, it was 255 in 2007, 253 in 2006, 254 in 2005.
Theriot was probably a bit unlucky on balls in play in 2007, hence his crappiness in 2007, and was probably a bit lucky on balls in play in 2006, and this year.
Offensively, he’s probably slight above average for a SS.
Defensively, this season, he has been very poor, both zone rating and RZR rate him badly. But, in 2007, he was slightly below average by RZR, slightly above average by ZR. , and slightly above average by Dan Fox’ pseudo play by play metric, SFR.
If he can play D at around average levels, which he did in 2007, he’s pretty much an average SS.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on
Jul 15, 2008 2:43 PM PDT
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If Pennington can manage a .260 EqA and play an average SS like Theriot
he’d be just fine and dandy with me. Crosby’s been a lot worse on offense although maybe better on defense until this year.
When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!
by WaddellCanseco on
Jul 16, 2008 3:39 PM PDT
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It would've been interesting to see what Mayo....
had to say about Travis Buck. I realize he’s not a rookie, but I assume he’s still a prospect of some sort – considering his age. I notice he hasn’t been playing for the Rivercats of late; I’m assuming he’s hurt again. I had high hopes for this guy, just like the rest of AN, but it seems as if he has fallen-off everyone’s radar. Hopefully he’ll be a September call-up and prove last year wasn’t a fluke.
"just a beating heart ... plasma that we'll put into our uniform." - Billy Beane
by athleticsBB4life on
Jul 15, 2008 8:40 AM PDT
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Since Cunningham had such a good camp in ST, I wonder if they would bump him up
from AA, the next time the A’s need an outfielder.
by theblackpearl on
Jul 15, 2008 8:44 AM PDT
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The fact that pitching prospects are so hard to project
Is, in part, reasponsible for us not having a strong offense. It makes it hard to convince a team to trade a stud bat for a stud arm as hitting prospects seem to project a little better.
by GusanoQuemador on
Jul 15, 2008 9:15 AM PDT
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I Wish
The Texas Rangers were in the National League. They sure seem to need some Stud Arms.
by Colorado Fan on
Jul 15, 2008 10:45 AM PDT
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But you know something that I'm starting to realize more and more
All stud prospects whether they be hitters or pitchers rarely get traded. Their respective organizations are usually just too excited about them to give them up. They only trade guys who carry a degree of risk with them (youth, lack of power, lack of upside, etc) in hopes that that level of risk will subside as they develop.
by GusanoQuemador on
Jul 15, 2008 10:55 AM PDT
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Haren deal
Hey guys—Blez asked if I would try to drop by to talk about that trade and, you know, when Blez asks, how can a guy say no?
I know the parts the A’s got back for Haren don’t stand out as elite prospects, but I think Oakland got 4 parts who all can contribute at the big-league level. I’ll stick to Patterson and Donaldson, since they are still officially “prospects.” I actually like E-Pat more than some do and I think if given the opportunity, he can be very productive. He’s shown the ability to hit for average and with some surprising pop (he won’t be his brother power-wise, but I think he’d be good for 12-15 HR per year), he draws some walks (.366 career OBP) and he can run. It’s a nice skill set, no? The one thing that has held him back, in some eyes, has been his lack of a true position. I think he’d be fine at 2B, though he probably won’t wow you. Then again, that kind of offense from that position, as long as he’s not awful with the glove, who wouldn’t take that? He can also handle the outfield, having played all three spots in the past couple of years. Maybe he’s a Chone Figgins-lite. Again, it all comes down to opportunity. The issues the Cubs had with him should not be a concern—he showed up late once, and while that shouldn’t be condoned, it got him sent down on a team that doesn’t like to play young players anyway. With Jemile Weeks behind him, there might be 2 of the same type of player in the system, but worry about that when Weeks is ready and let E-Pat play.
As for Donaldson, it’s too early to say his rough start to the 2008 season is anything than just that, a rough start. I like that the A’s moved him up to Stockton and he’s rewarded them by getting off to a nice start there. He’s just a year into his pro career and it can take some a little longer to make the transition. Thought of as a good offensive player who might need some work behind the plate when he was drafted, Donaldson hit well in Boise last summer - same sample size as his first half this year, basically - and actually had impressed the Cubs more than they thought they would be with his defense. So hang tight with him and don’t read too much into his full-season debut, the first half. You might end up with a pretty good all-around catcher when all is said and done.
by jonathanmayo on
Jul 15, 2008 10:05 AM PDT
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Thanks for responding
And I am wondering about not just Buck but also Jesus Guzman. Are they both injured and therefore not playing at AAA?
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
by vignette17 on
Jul 15, 2008 12:15 PM PDT
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They're both listed as active... I guess they must be day to day
Big surprise, huh?
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Jul 15, 2008 3:04 PM PDT
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Guzman hasn't played since the 6th, so its been over a week.
by theblackpearl on
Jul 15, 2008 3:43 PM PDT
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AAA is also having its all star break now though
I believe it’s tomorrow.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Jul 15, 2008 5:15 PM PDT
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The ASG, that is.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Jul 15, 2008 5:15 PM PDT
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Thanks for your time
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on
Jul 15, 2008 9:36 PM PDT
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Nice interview Blez
Thanks for sharing with us Jonathan.
by mrod on
Jul 15, 2008 10:55 AM PDT
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Yes, nice interview
I have to disagree with the part about Greg Smith going right at the hitters. In most of his starts, he’s done anything but that. Maybe he was more aggressive in the minors and the AFL but in the majors thus far, he’s been Mr. Nibbler.
Root for the Giants? Not even if they're playing al-Qaeda!
by Monday Fan on
Jul 15, 2008 1:03 PM PDT
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Thanks for the interview
to both of you. Thanks to Jonathan for sharing his thoughts and helping to put this trade into perspective.
I’m still pissed that Beane didn’t get Derreck Lee though. He got robbed! ;)
by oaktownmario on
Jul 15, 2008 1:50 PM PDT
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Thanks Jonathan and Blez!
When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!
by WaddellCanseco on
Jul 16, 2008 3:31 PM PDT
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