Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
Around SBN: Jeremy Lin's Game-Winner Was Incredible, Worth Remembering

What to do with the rest of this season....

 

After today’s loss puts us 6 back of a team that is better than us, however slightly, our 2008 season looks like one without the chance of playoffs.  So now it’s time to think to the future and to plan our moves this year to most benefit our future success.  Trade-wise, I won’t propose any specific deals, as I know people hate trade diaries. 

Star-divide

 

However, I would think Street (and Embree/Foulke if they had any value) will be dealt, but a couple of these shaky outings may be enough to throw off some suitors.  Maybe this rumored Street+Murton to the Rays develops but I don’t remember the last time a rumor about an A’s player lasted this long and then he was traded to that team.   A shocking bullpen arm that could be traded is Ziggy because there were slight rumors according to Rotoworld (probably made up by them) about Casilla, Brown, and Devine when they were doing incredible and you hardly ever hear rumors that early in the season.  Ziggy doesn’t have the same stuff as those three but he has all the performance.  Plus the sadist in me could totally see Beane trading Ziggy.

Blanton could be dealt to a GM looking to buy low, but Beane’s price on even under-performing A’s is high (see the Devine/Kotsay trade). Another shocking name that wouldn't surprise me to see gone is Cust.  Both the Mets and the DBacks are looking for LH-hitting OFers and Cust does have the teams' only >.800 OPS.  Plus we have Sweeney, Buck (though he seems to be injured), CarGo, Cunningham, Murton, and Patterson (who hit another HR for Sac today) for next year's OF.  If LA, would go for Crosby I would be stoked as well.

In my opinion, the immediate actions the A's should take are Brown should be DFA'd in favor of the aforementioned hot-hitting Patterson.  Bankston should be called up after his 10 days in the minors in favor of Murphy.  Murphy after more than 200 ABs with us has shown that he can't OBP .300 in the majors, despite his pretty good minors repertoire.  He'd still be useful to have in AAA and if Lenny Dinardo passes through waivers I would think Donnie would too.  We then could give Petit a couple of shots, but more than likely Crosby would get all the playing time, assuming he has no setbacks.

Even if Blanton/Duke doesn’t get traded I wouldn't be averse to seeing Gio get some starts in a six-man rotation following the break.  With so few off-days, the SP may b less worn-down getting that extra day of rest.  Plus Duke, Eveland, Smith, and Gallagher are all approaching career-highs or highs in the last couple of years in IP.  Eveland pitched 130 innings two years ago but last year only pitched 38.  Smith pitched 120ish last year and 150ish the year before and in 2005, his professional debut year he pitched 190ish (!).  That's a lot of wear on that arm and it would be nice to give him a little less wear in a season that probably won't matter.  Duke already hasn't pitched this many innings in a year since 2003.  Gallagher threw 120ish innings last year and 165 the year before and hasn't reached 100 yet this year, so he may be fine in a more consistent role with us than he got with the Cubs.   But why risk it?  We might as well be cautious with our young arms this year and let Gio get some experience for next year at the same time.  Plus, if you believe in hot streaks, Gio is certainly on one.  I even could see us trying Braden, he of the low-4 FIP PT keeps bringing up and the 9.11K's/9 at AAA, especially if he brought out the mysterious screwball.  He's in great danger of being passed in the depth chart.

The perfect candidate to replace Gio in Sacramento’s rotation is in Midland.  James Simmons has performed well while at AA and it’s time for a call-up in my opinion.  He’s pitching tonight and has done mediocre with 5.1 IP and 4 ER.  To replace Simmons we could go with one of two options: Jose Garcia or re-calling up Futures Game star Henry Rodriguez and his 100 MPH heater.  However, the A’s may be taking it slow with Rodriguez and letting him have success at a level at a young age after promoting aggressively and it backfiring, similar to what happened to Matthew Sulentic.  Garcia is also coming back after TJS, so they may want to take it slow with him and leave him in the bullpen.  But, they can’t wait too long as the longer he’s at an AA bullpen the more quickly he loses any prospect status.  Another player who might consider returning to the rotation is Jared Lansford, but considering how many SP prospects we have, he may have a better chance reaching the majors as a reliever.

And since our minor league system seems bereft of middle infield talent, I vote now is the time we aggressively promote what little we do have (It did work, to the extent someone could have plausibly hoped, with Pennington).  Both Larry Cobb and Michael Richard are destroying Kane County to the tune of a .865 and a .822 OPS respectively.  I say destroy because recently called-up Corey Brown only had a .842 OPS and he is probably our third best OF prospect behind Cunningham and Sulentic, though that may be more speaking to our system than his talent.  However, both Cobb and Richard are both old for low A (both 23) and need to be tested at a higher level or lose their semi-prospect status.  An already struggling Kane County would lose its two best hitters however.

Of course if you’re calling up someone, someone will lose PT.  In Cobb and Richard’s cases it’s going to be Carlos Arrieche and 2003 1st round pick and bust Brian Snyder.  The current middle infield in Stockton is Frank Martinez and Josh Horton and both have underachieved to sub .750 OPSes in the hitter friendly Cal League.  Martinez can also play 3b, although Arrieche is the team’s listed 3b.  Arrieche however has gotten very sporadic PT and should be sent down to KC.  Horton has gotten on base at a good .370 clip but his sub-.350 slugging is ugly.  However, he was a 2nd round pick.  He could get aggressively promoted to AA Midland and supplant their 2b the aforementioned Snyder.  The SS for Midland is Justin Sellers, and if the A’s like Horton’s SS defense, Sellers has played 2b when he was a teammate of Pennington.

The other candidate for a promotion is Horton’s teammate and top prospect Chris Carter and his .930ish OPS.  However, unless made in conjunction with a Bankston callup (and no Barton demotion) or Carter has a really good ability to play 3b or RF instead of merely low minor spot starts, a player who is performing well would have to be cut: Tommy Everidge.  While not really a prospect at 25, he’s OPSing near .800 and is a local boy out of Santa Rosa.  If Bankston were called up, Everidge could also be promoted and fill Bankston’s spot. 

And on one last minor’s note:  does anyone know why T-Buck and Jesus Guzman haven’t played at all recently in Sacramento?

Comment 87 comments  |  3 recs  | 

Do you like this story?

Comments

Display:

What about Cust to the Red Sox?

Do they have anything worth getting? I bet they would go for a bullpen arm or four as well

"Not in your wildest alcoholic nightmare would you ever imagines such events unfolding!" Bill King

by Buck Turgidson on Jul 13, 2008 6:51 PM PDT reply actions  

The Red Sox just lost Lugo unexpectedly

Are they going to slot in Lowrie, or might they be interested in trading for a SS? That could be their immediate priority and the A’s could potentially be involved, whether directly or as part of a three-way deal.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 13, 2008 7:12 PM PDT up reply actions  

You think they'd have interest in Crosby?

Crosby and Embree for Lowrie?

A little plumbing! Got to plumb! Plumb the depths! The depths of hell! - Larry David, CYE

by Swooney's Left Foot on Jul 13, 2008 7:17 PM PDT up reply actions  

If I'm the Red Sox, my response would be

“Let’s talk Crosby and Street,” and you go from there. They have a lot of Embrees; they need a Street.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 13, 2008 7:23 PM PDT up reply actions  

Street to pitch the 8th for them?

I would totally do that

A little plumbing! Got to plumb! Plumb the depths! The depths of hell! - Larry David, CYE

by Swooney's Left Foot on Jul 13, 2008 7:24 PM PDT up reply actions  

Street and Crosby for just Lowrie?

Sigh.

It’s a good thing actual MLB GMs overvalue “proven closers,” because he’s sure as hell undervalued here.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 13, 2008 7:27 PM PDT up reply actions  

Sigh

He wouldn’t be closing for the Sox.

A little plumbing! Got to plumb! Plumb the depths! The depths of hell! - Larry David, CYE

by Swooney's Left Foot on Jul 13, 2008 7:28 PM PDT up reply actions  

I love Street

And I think that Lowrie deal would be crap, but I also think you overrate the value of a “proven closer.”

by rebus on Jul 13, 2008 7:30 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'm not advocating a trade of

“Street and Crosby for Lowrie,” first of all. I’m saying the Red Sox might be more focused on a SS right now than on a DH and that if we were to offer Embree I expect they would only be interested in discussing Street. Whether there’s a win-win deal to be made, I have no clue.

And while many probably do underrate Street here, personally I think you overrate him, PT. You seem highly influenced by K/BB rates and other peripherals, but the reality is that Street consistently closes out games at about an 83% success rate – which is fine, but hardly spectacular. He’s a very good pitcher who is a good closer, but not a very good or great one. He’s also the best one the A’s currently have and I don’t take that lightly. But if a chance comes along to get a SS or 3B man and it means parting with Street, I’m open to it because I think the A’s could soon replace him with someone nearly as good – which may have to do if you want to fill some more urgent holes.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 13, 2008 7:42 PM PDT up reply actions  

sorry,

it would have been obvious if I followed the chain of posts with a modicum of attention. My apologies.

by rebus on Jul 13, 2008 7:52 PM PDT up reply actions  

to add a thought-

my gripe is that I don’t think any closer is worth, say, a grade true A position prospect, nearly ML ready. Especially not a closer with 3+ seasons of service time.

it’s not the best comp, but the Rockies are looking for one quality prospect for Fuentes (I assume that’s a B or so) and I don’t know if they’re gonna get it. I’d have to do a bit of research, but I don’t know of a closer getting much more than that in return.

by rebus on Jul 13, 2008 7:59 PM PDT up reply actions  

Scott Linebrink (a setup man, no less)

brought three solid arms for half a season last year.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 13, 2008 8:02 PM PDT up reply actions  

that is a good example

What a stupid good trade for the Padres. The Brewers’ scouts must have been bananas for Linebrink or something.

I’d be ecstatic if the A’s get that kind of value. Especially if it’s in position players of need.

by rebus on Jul 13, 2008 8:29 PM PDT up reply actions  

gosh

I’m still trying to fathom that deal.

That’s like Brett Anderson, Greg Smith, and say, Mazzaro for Linebrink.

by rebus on Jul 13, 2008 8:49 PM PDT up reply actions  

Let me clarify, then

I’m not opposed to trading Street. In fact, I’m on board with it. The A’s arguably have four closer prospects in their system right now (Italiano, Rodriguez, Demel, Carignan), and that’s not counting the guys already on the MLB roster. It’s trading from strength, and I favor that.

I AM opposed to trading Street for less than an A- prospect or two B+ prospects (at least one filling an area of need). If a throw-in like Murton is required to realize that return, I’d be OK with that.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 13, 2008 8:01 PM PDT up reply actions  

I agree - as usual, anyway, Billy holds the cards

He doesn’t “have to” trade Street so there’s no reason to settle for less than what you outline. He’s an established, effective major league closer and a lot of teams, such as Tampa Bay and Milwaukee, are trying to win a pennant right now without one of those.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 13, 2008 8:15 PM PDT up reply actions  

let's trade street

for alcides escobar then

"It's not my fault your team's so shitty." -Steve Friend, head coach, Chabot College, to Laney College's head coach, who asked why we scored so many runs after we beat Laney 30-3 in 2006

by flipgatey3 on Jul 14, 2008 1:19 AM PDT up reply actions  

Looks like the guy slugs worse than Kendall

.306 – .362 in the low minors. Eek.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 14, 2008 8:18 AM PDT up reply actions  

Josh Horton plus a year?

Hm. We already have the real deal. No thanks. I’d rather get Mat “Position to be Named Later” Gamel.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 14, 2008 9:00 AM PDT up reply actions  

i know, i was just trying to beat the rush ;)

"It's not my fault your team's so shitty." -Steve Friend, head coach, Chabot College, to Laney College's head coach, who asked why we scored so many runs after we beat Laney 30-3 in 2006

by flipgatey3 on Jul 14, 2008 1:01 PM PDT up reply actions  

Wouldn't make much sense for them to do that

unless they think Lowrie is not a viable candidate at shortstop even as an injury fill-in. Otherwise, why not just play Lowrie? Unlike Crosby, he doesn’t suck.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 13, 2008 7:25 PM PDT up reply actions  

so, altogether you think Lowrie is better than Crosby?

I don’t get that impression. What are you basing that on? If that was true then, uh, why wouldn’t the Sux just put him in the lineup?

I don’t think a trade with Boston is worth it if all we get is Lowrie.

"Not in your wildest alcoholic nightmare would you ever imagines such events unfolding!" Bill King

by Buck Turgidson on Jul 13, 2008 11:01 PM PDT up reply actions  

I sure think he projects as a better hitter than Crosby

It would be hard to be worse, really. Unless you’re Tony Pena.

I expect the Sox would put him in the lineup in preference to trading for Crosby. I don’t know that for a fact, but I suspect it.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 13, 2008 11:43 PM PDT up reply actions  

tony pena

he of the OPS+ of…one. 1.

"It's not my fault your team's so shitty." -Steve Friend, head coach, Chabot College, to Laney College's head coach, who asked why we scored so many runs after we beat Laney 30-3 in 2006

by flipgatey3 on Jul 14, 2008 1:19 AM PDT up reply actions  

Well I will remind you that Bobby Crosby projects to be a better hitter than Bobby Crosby

Seriously though, on the defensive side of the ball BoCro is above average and that is a known quantity at this point. Whereas Lowrie is unproven. I reall think that if Lowrie was all that he would be up with the big league club by now.

So, I think the answer to my question is the Red Sox don’t have any pieces we want.

"Not in your wildest alcoholic nightmare would you ever imagines such events unfolding!" Bill King

by Buck Turgidson on Jul 14, 2008 9:58 AM PDT up reply actions  

No, actually, he doesn't

His offense is actually right about what we would have expected coming into the season, perhaps even a bit higher. A sub-.700 OPS is the norm for Crosby, not the exception.

His defense is not Lugo-bad, but it has been thoroughly subpar this season, and it’s reflected as such in all the major rating systems. So if that’s a “known quantity,” then, well, you don’t know what you think you know.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 14, 2008 10:18 AM PDT up reply actions  

The sox did put him in the lineup

The other night and earlier this year. They usually like their own players a lot more than other teams’, and they really seem to like Lowrie. I really don’t see how Crosby could get them, or any other team excited. What has he done since his rookie year? Just another example of people overvaluing home players. So tired of the ‘hey, why don’t we trade our underachieving players for someone else’s promising/prove players?’ It’s just so unrealistic.

by sggut95 on Jul 14, 2008 4:04 PM PDT up reply actions  

Red Sox

have Lowrie and Alex Cora. no trade there.
also, Lowrie is their SS of the future (projects to be a decent hitter). they won’t be moving him.

by oakinboston on Jul 14, 2008 6:29 AM PDT up reply actions  

Another thing to remember is that

the A’s are in the division with the team that currently (barf) holds the AL’s best record. When that happens, sometimes you have to look at the wild card – and it doesn’t look that bleak. IMO, the Red Sox are going to win the AL East, and the Rays look like a likely “team to beat” for the wild card. They’re in free fall and only 3-4 games up on the A’s. The Twins had a tremendous run but I have to think they’re really crap – Livan Hernandez? Nick Punto and Jason Kubel? C’mon. The A’s are ahead of the Yankees (god I love saying that).

My guess is that soon, if the Angels don’t slump the A’s may have to give up on the division but not the playoffs. Which makes the next two series at NYY and Tampa Bay (where we should face the Rays’ 4-5-1) good indicators of whether the A’s can “get up off the deck” and keep fighting for a playoff spot. It’s not outlandish to think they could snatch the wild card, with Crosby and R. Sweeney healthy and Thomas on the way back.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 13, 2008 7:22 PM PDT reply actions  

good points

i think billy should wait to trade most of our players until after those series, unless he is bowled over with an offer

We've never been in that position. We wouldn't know how to operate, I mean, do we get him a corsage?-Billy Beane on signing a high profile FA

by DyeLongJustice on Jul 14, 2008 7:58 PM PDT up reply actions  

Huston Street

The worst Closer the A’s have ever had. They need to trade him for a used Buick, a middling middle releiver, anything they can get/ He’s is and has been worst than when tthey had Isringhausen. Like him he always brings them up to the brink of a loss except isringhausen used to enter games with a 3 run lead and end the game with a 1 run lead and the winning run standing on third. Street just plain blows saves, Yeah today Hunter got on with a fluke single but he blows, flat out blows too many saves. His stuff simply isn”t closer material/ His trade value is low cause everyone else knows this too. As for the LA/Anaheim/Cucamonga/InlandEmpire/SanBernandio Angels They own the best record money can buy, but the fact they can’t put away the low payroll A’s does’nt bode well for them in the post season. They’ll get dumped by another big money team or upset by a surprise team.

by since68 on Jul 13, 2008 7:37 PM PDT reply actions  

3 words: Arthur Lee Rhodes

A little plumbing! Got to plumb! Plumb the depths! The depths of hell! - Larry David, CYE

by Swooney's Left Foot on Jul 13, 2008 7:41 PM PDT up reply actions  

My A's closer list, from best to worst since Eck:

Foulke… A
Isringhausen… A-
Street… B+
Dotel… B
Koch… B
Big Bill Taylor… B-
Rhodes… C
Bradford/Mecir/Rincon… D

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 13, 2008 7:45 PM PDT up reply actions  

Huston is far from the worst we've had...

but, he’s hardly worth the idolization PT heaps upon him. Your B+ for his career with the A’s is probably fair. But, this year he certainly wouldn’t earn that. Yes, 17 for 21 is good, as closer results go, but not great. I see several more in his future this year, so it probably won’t even turn out as well as it looks now.

I didn’t know one fan sitting around me today who was confident the A’s were going to win when Huston took the mound. Not one. And, my father sitting at home watching on TV, changed the channel after Street was announced. He knew what was going to happen.

People who say Street has been unlucky are wearing blinders. He’s been friggn’ lucky to not have blown more. Today was a perfect example. You say Hunter’s weak hit was “unlucky?” It was if you don’t have a fucking out pitch to set the guy down after getting ahead in the count 0-2. No, instead, we see:

1. Swinging Strike
2. Called Strike
3. Ball
4. Foul
5. Ball
6. Foul
7. Foul
8. Ball in play (no out)

Nothing thrown over 90-91 on the gun the entire at-bat. That’s not bad luck folks. That’s just not having the stuff to get it done. Period.

Dump him for what we can get Billy. And, soon!

Foolsh, the most insane regular poster on AN since oaktoon left - salb

by FoolshGame22 on Jul 13, 2008 8:23 PM PDT up reply actions  

The one thing I take issue with is

that aside from the rare Rivera-type closer, pretty much every fan feels his/her team’s closer is going to blow it when he comes in the game. But the lack of a putaway pitch is astute, especially in stark contrast to the embarrassing-as-a-human-but-effective-as-a-closer K-Rod.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 13, 2008 8:26 PM PDT up reply actions  

now, FRod is lucky...

he ain’t nowhere near as good as his record suggests. Some dumb GM will pay him multi-millions after this season and he’ll probably get lit up the very next. Let’s hope it’s the Angels who do it, but I’d rather see him out of the division, all the same.

Foolsh, the most insane regular poster on AN since oaktoon left - salb

by FoolshGame22 on Jul 13, 2008 8:29 PM PDT up reply actions  

He'll probably also blow out his arm,

which he always looks like he’s about to do. Whoever signs him this off-season is going to regret it, IMO.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 13, 2008 8:35 PM PDT up reply actions  

Sorry, K-Rod isn't lucky.

He may be an injury risk, and he may not choose his pitch sequences well. That said, he has the nastiest slider this side of Brad Lidge, and can get his fastball up there at 96 routinely, with movement. Stuff wise, he is flat nasty.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Jul 14, 2008 7:51 AM PDT up reply actions  

but... but...

We don’t like him.

/sputter

by nevermoor on Jul 14, 2008 8:30 AM PDT up reply actions  

K-Rod

I have limited exposure to him but ti is my impression that he is one fo those “every save is an adventure” type of dudes with 53 base runners in 42 innings. So, I would think he is partially “lucky” in the fact that he has 400 bozillion saves in the first half of the season.

That said… I would feel a lot more comfortable with him closing than Street. I turned off the car radio on my way to the recycling center and stewed when the 9th inning began. I was actually angry before the game was blown because I knew it would be blown when the A’s failed to add on.

by jeffro on Jul 14, 2008 8:53 AM PDT up reply actions  

Disagree

His walks are up, his strikeouts are way down, and his ERA is not an accurate reflection of the way he’s pitched.

This is where I should cite his FIP, and the sizable gulf between it and his ERA, but these new fangled mom’s basement stats scare me a little, and I don’t think I’m emotionally prepared to endure the scornful eye-rolling misuse might engender. Also, I think there is (or should be) a universal prohibition against using a recently learned stat in a debate. (punishable by banishment and/or Forced Physioc Overload, whereby the subject is strapped to bright red dentist chair, eyes pried open Clockwork Orange-style, inches away from a giant Orwellian screen blaring Angels television highlights on a loop, Vlad and Anderson and K-Rod and Figgins and Shields, with special sadistic emphasis on gushing recitations of cliche, “gritty”, “gamer”, “little things”, “small ball”, “redhead”, and “execute” over and over and over, volume ratcheting ever upward, walls closing in, the subject squirming and panicking, Rex Hudler’s crazed idiot grin bobbing in and out of the frame like a demented fidgety leprechaun, intermittently blotted out by Scioscia’s insufferable smirk, Maicer Izturis doing something scrappy, and those stupid rock formations beyond the outfield walls)

Anyway, data aside: His velocity is not what it once was, and hitters appear to have learned to always (always, always) take the slider/curve/change/downward biting/whatever the hell it is thing up to two strikes. I don’t know how to look this up, but I’d guess he gets far fewer pre-two strike swings and misses on that pitch than he did earlier in his career.

This isn’t to say that he’s not a good pitcher. He is. But he’s not elite this year, save totals be damned.

by 74mk on Jul 14, 2008 9:13 AM PDT up reply actions  

His stuff misses bats

whether he uses it well or not. He can make (lots of) mistakes and get away with it, because his stuff is that good.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Jul 14, 2008 9:18 AM PDT up reply actions  

I'm not sure I get what you're saying

Maybe that his pitch sequencing is stupid, but that doesn’t matter because his stuff is so good? I think that’s wrong.

I’m saying this:

1. His off-speed pitch (however you classify it) is just as “nasty” as it’s always been.

2. That matters somewhat less, because a) his fastball is consistently a few ticks below what it used to be, b) he throws the breaking pitch a lot but rarely for a strike, and c) hitters, knowing (b), often lay off the breaking stuff up to two strikes.

3. This is borne out by higher walk totals and a diminished strikeout rate (which, incidentally, is lower than Huston Street’s).

4. It all adds up to a moderately less effective K-Rod, a guy who is good but definitely not dominant, however awesome-looking his breaking pitch might be.

5. I know we’re talking about 40 innings here, and I should stress that I don’t mean to overemphasize this particular half-season. However, I think it’s clear, by virtue of glancing at the numbers and actually watching him pitch on several occasions, that his season has been less than superlative.

by 74mk on Jul 14, 2008 9:40 AM PDT up reply actions  

Backing this up with stats

THT and Fangraphs differ slightly on K-Rod’s FIP. I’m guessing that’s because THT doesn’t run through yesterday’s game and Fangraphs does, but I couldn’t really say. Regardless, his FIP is somewhere in the 3.3-3.5 range, which is good but not great. His xFIP, which corrects for his unsustainably low home run rate (and note—because of the highly modular nature of reliever usage, almost every reliever is either going to be lucky or unlucky on home runs over a three month period, which needs to be corrected for), is 4.06—or barely above average for a relief pitcher.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 14, 2008 10:35 AM PDT up reply actions  

What I saw this weekend for a fastball

was 96 MPH and moving. He even has a changeup he can mix in now, although it isn’t very good. His off-speed pitch isn’t just nasty, it’s the best slider in baseball.

Hitters have known to lay off the slider for years (see: Kielty, Bobby). If he gets ahead in the count, it’s pretty much all over.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Jul 14, 2008 7:53 PM PDT up reply actions  

Perhaps,

Regardless, his K rate has dropped notably this year, while his walk rate has gone up.

His BABIP is a career best 236. Meanwhile he is giving up a career high 19% line drives. Maybe his low BABIP is skill, and not luck; still, his K rate has dropped, his walk rate is up, more of his pitches are being hit as line drives than ever.

He’s not missing bats as he did, prior to this year.

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on Jul 15, 2008 12:28 AM PDT up reply actions  

dammit, when are you going to start making FanPosts?

... arousing men to burst the chains under which monkeyish ignorance and superstition had persuaded them to bind themselves ... @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jul 14, 2008 9:29 AM PDT up reply actions  

I don’t despise Emil Brown, Jack Cust, or Bob Geren, I’m agnostic on the Harden trade, I don’t read mlbtraderumors, and my feelings about multiple exclamation points approximate PT’s angst regarding the use of “we” when referring to one’s favorite team.

Given that set of built-in obstacles, I’m not sure how I could ever write a fanpost. Just too steep a mountain to climb.

by 74mk on Jul 14, 2008 9:48 AM PDT up reply actions  

can a pitcher not have a putaway pitch

and still K over a batter an inning?

My worry about Street is, as others have pointed out, his drop in fastball velocity:

2005 – 91.5
2006 – 91.7
2007 – 90.4
2008 – 89.7

I wonder if his elbow won’t have chronic issues soon.

by rebus on Jul 13, 2008 8:36 PM PDT up reply actions  

Street does have a "putaway pitch" - it's his slider

But the slider is going to be more effective when your fastball is 91.7 than when it’s 89.7 and when you locate the slider well.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 13, 2008 8:41 PM PDT up reply actions  

but if he hangs it in the middle

it will surprise them! see, it’s the bad pitches they won’t expect!

trades for Miguel Batista

by rebus on Jul 13, 2008 8:46 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yes, Street used to have that "out" pitch slider...

it used to be nasty. And, maybe it’s not his out pitch because of the loss of velocity on his fast ball. But, it seems to me that it is more lack of location on the slider that is making him less effective. Hell, Galt wouldn’t even swing at 75% of the sliders Street throws these days. They’re not even tempting to a hitter.

And, to answer rebus… hell, Embree K’s about a batter an inning. Dotel way more. We shoulda just kept him. He’d be free, right?

Foolsh, the most insane regular poster on AN since oaktoon left - salb

by FoolshGame22 on Jul 13, 2008 8:56 PM PDT up reply actions  

Embree for his career has a K/9 that is a full batter lower than Street

That, alone, is worth about a third of a run in ERA.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 13, 2008 9:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

Let Street have a career as long as Embree's

and, that will change. Besides, we’re talking about “current” Street, not the ghost of Street past. His and Embree’s K/9 this year are almost identical.

And, how ‘bout Dotel versus Street? How many more runs is his K-rate worth in ERA than Street? So, you agree, the A’s should have kept him?

Foolsh, the most insane regular poster on AN since oaktoon left - salb

by FoolshGame22 on Jul 13, 2008 9:14 PM PDT up reply actions  

Jesus

In lieu of actually debating you, given your willingness to cherrypick stats mercilessly to support whatever position you happen to hold, I will simply state the following.

Street FIP: 2.88
Dotel FIP: 3.70
Embree FIP: 4.02

That is my position on the issue.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 13, 2008 9:22 PM PDT up reply actions  

I didn't cherrypick K/9...

you did. Now, you like FIP. When you can’t win on your original set of facts, change the argument. You’ll make a good lawyer, PT.

Foolsh, the most insane regular poster on AN since oaktoon left - salb

by FoolshGame22 on Jul 13, 2008 9:27 PM PDT up reply actions  

Relievers with better 2008 FIP's in the A's bullpen...

(or formerly in the A’s bullpen)

Devine     1.35
Rhodes   1.76
Calero      2.01
Braden     2.65
Ziegler     2.93
Dotel        3.03
Blevins    3.08
Saarloos 3.60
Bradford  3.65
Casilla     3.67
Street       3.67

You’re right about Embree, this year, though… he’s a horrendous 3.73.

My personal choice for closer is Devine. As soon as he comes off the DL and Billy can dump Huston.

Please make it soon!

Foolsh, the most insane regular poster on AN since oaktoon left - salb

by FoolshGame22 on Jul 13, 2008 9:52 PM PDT up reply actions  

I don't appreciate arguing, per se, as much as you fellas,
Foulke… A
Isringhausen… A-
Street… B+
Dotel… B
Koch… B
Big Bill Taylor… B-
Rhodes… C
Bradford/Mecir/Rincon… D

but I’ve got a much different recollection of our time with Mr. Rhodes than you do if you’re to rate the Cerberus Bradford/Mecir/Rincon a full grade below him. If the statistics don’t back me, then I apologize, but I don’t remember anything nearly as hideous as the Great Arthur Rhodes Experiment, including Dan Johnson, Ben Grieve, or even Esteban Loaiza (and that’s saying something, because Esteban scared the crap out of me every time he took the hill). I still shiver when TARE comes on the field, and he doesn’t even play for us.

I’d still rather have Street on my team than K-Rod, just because I hate douchebags. -Taj Adib

by Leopold Bloom on Jul 13, 2008 10:59 PM PDT up reply actions  

if Rincon were removed from Nico's list...

I’d probably agree. ;-)

Foolsh, the most insane regular poster on AN since oaktoon left - salb

by FoolshGame22 on Jul 13, 2008 11:02 PM PDT up reply actions  

Well, Rhodes started out ok, saved 9, eventually tanked,

whereas the time before Dotel saw efforts from Bradford and Mecir that were pretty much a series of disasters – hence the trade. In other words, Rhodes was poor but Bradford/Mecir never had any success at all.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 14, 2008 8:20 AM PDT up reply actions  

Ben Grieve

Is he really a failure for the A’s? I know completely off topic (sort off)... I still remember the grand slam he hit of Jose Paniagua at Safeco in 2000 that kind of sealed the deal for the A’s. He OPS’d close to 850 that year if I remember correctly.

by jeffro on Jul 14, 2008 8:59 AM PDT up reply actions  

He wasn't even close to a failure for the A's

He put up good numbers for three years, then was traded as part of an excellent deal in which the A’s got Mark Ellis. Of course, he rapidly went downhill after leaving Oakland, but that’s no skin off our nose. The decision to draft Ben Grieve was objectively a very good one.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 14, 2008 9:03 AM PDT up reply actions  

AN 4.0 should have an "unrec" option

For knee-jerk comments like that (and anything vegasgm writes)

by nevermoor on Jul 13, 2008 8:21 PM PDT up reply actions  

You want to Cindi to cry herself to sleep every night?

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 13, 2008 8:27 PM PDT up reply actions  

Vignette

People hate bad trade diaries.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Jul 13, 2008 8:02 PM PDT reply actions  

Thanks for telling me - I was just about

to do a diary suggesting a bad trade…

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 13, 2008 8:16 PM PDT up reply actions  

Nico

People hate your diaries.

Good, bad or otherwise.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Jul 13, 2008 9:51 PM PDT up reply actions  

livestock love his diaries, though

... arousing men to burst the chains under which monkeyish ignorance and superstition had persuaded them to bind themselves ... @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jul 14, 2008 9:31 AM PDT up reply actions  

The 2nd half

I think there’s a VERY good chance Gio is up sometime in the 2nd half. His last few starts he’s dominated AAA. I know he’s been up and down all year, but the guy is likely ready to at least get an extended look. When you dominate AAA the way he has of late, you deserve a promotion.

Also, if Patterson continues hitting like he has been since he got to Sacramento (or even if he doesn’t), he’ll either get called up for regular playing time or else be traded. The guy is 25, has a proven track record in the minors, and in AAA in particular. It does us no good to keep him in AAA. It’s not like he’s 21 or something. Keeping him in AAA is a waste at this point. If he’s going to be good, he’s going to be good now. Why wait?

I also wouldn’t be surprised if we see Simmons in September and then in the rotation sometime early next year. He’s been fastracked, and he’s performing. Why not?

by Crosbino on Jul 13, 2008 10:36 PM PDT reply actions  

I wouldn't be surprised if we see all those guys by September...

after all, we’ll have September call-ups regardless of whether the A’s are in it or not by then. Billy’s gonna want to take a look. Too bad Street gave it away today. Makes us more of a seller 6 games back than 4 games back.

Street would be the first one I rid this team of.

Foolsh, the most insane regular poster on AN since oaktoon left - salb

by FoolshGame22 on Jul 13, 2008 11:07 PM PDT up reply actions  

I unfortunately think Patterson

is Ellis replacement.

When will then be now? Soon.

by Syphon on Jul 13, 2008 11:19 PM PDT up reply actions  

I see Gio as a September callup

who is given a chance to make the big league rotation out of spring training. I see Simmons starting 2009 at AAA unless he wows the team in spring training and pulls a Street/Buck to make the team. I see Cahill starting 2009 at AAA and being a possible mid-season callup if he’s performing well and the A’s have a need, and I see Anderson starting 2009 at AA, being quickly promoted to AAA and getting a Sept 2009 callup. All just guesses, obviously.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 14, 2008 8:24 AM PDT up reply actions  

If Patterson keeps performing like he is

Does Billy Beane try to trade Ellis at the deadline, let him walk at the end of the year and receive an extra draft pick or two, or sign him to an extension?

by webgem101 on Jul 13, 2008 11:43 PM PDT reply actions  

I think if hes offered something he likes he will be traded.

If not then we will prob get 2 picks for him.

When will then be now? Soon.

by Syphon on Jul 13, 2008 11:47 PM PDT up reply actions  

Billy wants to win this year...

so, I doubt Mark is out the door at the deadline. Of your other two choices…

1. Let him walk: most likely.
2. Sign him to an extension: Least likely of all three. Old players are just not in this team’s plans. That’s why I don’t expect Duke to get a multi-year contract, either.

Foolsh, the most insane regular poster on AN since oaktoon left - salb

by FoolshGame22 on Jul 13, 2008 11:53 PM PDT up reply actions  

billy wants to win every year

it’s just a matter of how realistic it is. if he thinks we don’t have a good enough shot, ellis will be gone

"It's not my fault your team's so shitty." -Steve Friend, head coach, Chabot College, to Laney College's head coach, who asked why we scored so many runs after we beat Laney 30-3 in 2006

by flipgatey3 on Jul 14, 2008 1:25 AM PDT up reply actions  

depends on the salary Ellis wants

If he wants .240 hitting 31 year old money we should keep him

If he wants stud +/- money we may not be able to.

If patterson makes us less interested in re-signing ellis, it’s the biggest negative of the trade.

by nevermoor on Jul 14, 2008 6:07 AM PDT up reply actions  

Agree on Ellis

Maybe this is an “extend low” opportunity. Ellis’ offense has been awful and at 31, prospects for improvement are remote. Sign him for a couple of years to take advantage of his defense and leadership? I’m OK with that – but not at All-Star dollars.

by boilerdan on Jul 14, 2008 7:53 AM PDT up reply actions  

A team needs solid veterans to win -

I don’t think Beane foresees going forward with only young studs growing up together. Two “early 30s” veterans is minimal – Duke and Ellis could easily be the two guys retained, with Chavy assuming the role of the “aging veteran past his prime” unless the A’s trade for a young “3B of the future.”

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 14, 2008 8:27 AM PDT up reply actions  

+1

I really want to keep Duke & Ellis. I love the idea of stacking most all positions young and cheap, but I’d like to have a couple of my older favorites around.

"Don't be an ass!" --Bill King

by batgirl on Jul 14, 2008 1:40 PM PDT up reply actions  

Ellis's offense is avg, he has an OPS+ of 99

Which doesn’t adjust for position, so he’s probably slightly above average offensively this year for second basemen.

by iamawesomer on Jul 14, 2008 3:15 PM PDT up reply actions  

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Welcome to the SB Nation blog about Oakland Athletics.

Community Guidelines ANcillary Terms

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

Aperture_logo_small
Community Prospect List #4
Img_2672_small
Long-Term Outlook

Recent FanPosts

Fubarcloud_small
Wolf being told to spend money
Small
The wRC+ Challenge
Pumpkin_small
Maybe this is a stupid stats question
Small
A's reportedly sign Cespedes
Unknown_small
Is It Really Worth It: Three Veterans Who May Be Playing Oakland Next Year, But Shouldn't Be
Small
Manny's Contract
Small
fantasy baseball league for A's fans!
Small
NYY Proposal
Small
Roy Oswalt = opportunity

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >


Front Page Writers

Maya_papi_small Tyler Bleszinski

08-_the_author_small 67MARQUEZ

Josefav2_small danmerqury

Baseball_small baseballgirl

Poochini-butt_in_box_2_small Nico

Img_0653_small dwishinsky

Front Page Writers

Smiley_face_small gigglingone

Venasfans_small OaklandSi

60-minutes-clock_small cuppingmaster

Patpicturebucky2_small YonYonson

Img_3830_small David Fung

Moderators

Photofunia-5c770b_small coffee roaster

Denver_small Colorado Fan

Ls_logo100_small LoneStranger

Thumbs_up_small LongTimeFan

Marty_profile_in_green_small mrod

Img_1877_small Billy Frijoles

Babycomputergeek_small paris7

Img_0115_small Tutu-late