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Around SBN: Randy Moss A Raven?

What Have We Learned Lately??

In this most fascinating of A's seasons since 1999-- because it is a team still in formation-- I think a lot of things are coming into clearer focus.

1. The damn Angels know how to win. I understand what Pythagoras makes of them-- but we are almost 40% of the way into a season and they are playing basically .600 ball despite having not had their best pitcher for much of the season and with their star having a subpar year. I don't see mediocrity (sorry-- had to do it) here-- but instead a team with a very good chance to win 90 games, and a pretty good chance to win 95-- either of which are probably beyond our squad's grasp;

2. We have two plus members of our rotation, and knock on wood about their availability the rest of the season. The two rookie lefthanders have hit an expected wall (who is our All-Star now? Harden or Duke if they can get enough innings?? Street?? Which seems ludicrous given his velocity issues but why not? I don't see a position player, that's for sure) But the bullpen depth cures many ills-- we have at least 8 perfomers in the bullpen now or on the shelf who can pitch effectively. Street might be the least dependable of them until his groin heals. But with Brown back, and Ziggy, Foulke and Embree; Casilla not too far away, Gaudin waiting for the rotation opening again, and Devine should he return in the not too distant future, you've got a deep and dependable bullpen. They may not always be pretty but they get the job done. Witness yesterday;

3. The young outfielders are all showing something-- either at the plate, in the field or both. Emil Brown won't play much once R Sweeney returns, and that is a good thing;

4. Chavy is back better (or Chavy's back is better) than almost any of us thought he'd be. All of a sudden the middle of the order of him, Cust and the Hurt (though Frank won't get a chance to become a regular again for another three weeks given the interleague play) is pretty imposing.

5. Suzuki, Crosby and Ellis should all be hitting a little better, but none of them are the drags that Kendall or the old Crosby were, and their up the middle defense is impeccable;

6. Daric Barton takes too many pitches;

7. Bob Geren pinchruns way too often;

It is certainly, barring serious injury, a 85 win team. And it could be a bit more with a little bit of luck. The Yankee series may be instructive-- the Bombers are Bombing again and I suspect Tampa is ready for a bit of a fall, meaning that the WC fight could come down to these three teams. Playoffs?? Playoffs?? Maybe;

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Sure the Angels have a good chance to win 90

They’re an 85 win team that’s been randomly spotted 5 games in the standings.

Well, you do the math.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jun 9, 2008 8:17 AM PDT reply actions  

That's looking backward in the rearview mirror

They’re gonna be better from a Pythagorean standpoint from here on out—whatever happens in the standings. Lots of guys could hit better—a healthy Kendrick adds to the offense. Lackey all the way now.

by madmongoose on Jun 9, 2008 8:24 AM PDT up reply actions  

"A healthy Kendrick"

is, if not quite at “a healthy Harden” levels of improbability, at least at “a healthy J.D. Drew.”

It would be a mistake for anyone to count on more than 120 games or so out of Kendrick.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jun 9, 2008 9:01 AM PDT up reply actions  

They'll have to play better to be an 85 win team

Well, they will probably have to play better just to be an 85 win team the rest of the way. The Angels aren’t just outperforming their Pythag, they also have a better run differential than they “should.” They’ve been outhit by their opponents so far:

Angels: .254/.319/.381
Opponents: .261/.322/.401

The Angels make some of that up with baserunning, but not all of it. Their opponents have an OPS 23 points higher than them, while the A’s OPS is 49 points higher than their opponents’.

The Angels will likely play better than they have going forward, but they’ll have to play like the 85-90 win team they were projected to be.

by Danny on Jun 9, 2008 8:31 AM PDT reply actions  

I agree that they will play "better"

But to me that whole team comes down to the last at bat in Saturday night’s game. KRod is in trouble—tying runs on base and he’s 3-0 to Gonzalez. And yet when he throws strike one I think anyone rooting for either team knows deep down how it will play out. That’s what I mean about knowing how to win-- there are some things that defy the statistics, and cannot be explained away as just luck. The 2006 A’s should not have won close to 95 games- but their defense and ability to shut the door with a narrow lead produced that total. I don’t like them but I respect how they play the game and what they do to win.

by madmongoose on Jun 9, 2008 8:41 AM PDT up reply actions  

They don't have to play better to win 85-- or really even 90

Based on run differential.

They are 39-25 and have a slight run differential edge. Play .500 the rest of the way and they win 88.

by madmongoose on Jun 9, 2008 9:36 AM PDT up reply actions  

"going forward"
Well, they will probably have to play better just to be an 85 win team the rest of the way.

by Danny on Jun 9, 2008 9:50 AM PDT up reply actions  

The thing I respect about the Angels

is they make you beat them. In other words, they constantly put pressure on the defense with their running game … they never give up. Even with Smith on the mound the other day, they kept trying to run. It just always seems like they’re trying hard to score. I know that sounds silly … every team “trys hard.” But I just get the feeling watching them, that they never let up. How many times do we see the A’s go down 1-2-3 rather meekly, and you seem to know it after the first hitter? Even with 2 outs, I worry about the Angels … and they don’t hit much better than Oakland! I don’t know, it just seems like Scoscia has them fired up all game long.
But again, the biggest thing IMO, is they make you throw them out on the bases. They put pressure on the defense, and when you do that, good things happen. Sure, you’ll get thrown out from time to time, but more often than not, the defense won’t make the play. Oakland has gotten a little better this year at being aggressive, but we’ve got a long way to go.

I needed a team so I wouldn’t turn into one of the eighty million pink hat-wearing Bud Light-drinking mulleted idiots at Fenway.

by Vacafan on Jun 9, 2008 9:33 AM PDT reply actions  

Where exactly has it been reported

That Frank won’t be back until interleague play is over in 3 weeks? It makes sense to speculate that he won’t be used until June 20 when we play here in Oakland, where he’s eligible to DH again. I haven’t seen anything reported that his injury will keep him out that long, but maybe I missed it..

by GusanoQuemador on Jun 9, 2008 10:54 AM PDT reply actions  

Didn't say he wouldn't be back

But he won’t be playing every day until the 20th when NL road games end—so to be more accurate, it could be 11 more days until he’s back in the lineup

by madmongoose on Jun 9, 2008 11:17 AM PDT up reply actions  

Barton

Has Barton ever not hit before?

by solotar on Jun 9, 2008 11:14 AM PDT reply actions  

Yes, but never over a full season

which is why many people, myself included, advocated giving him a long leash before farming him out.

In any event, he’s the hitter he is, and that hitter takes a lot of pitches.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jun 9, 2008 12:11 PM PDT up reply actions  

The thing that concerns me a bit about Barton

Is not the pitches he takes, but the pitches he swings through. Not just breaking balls, since you expect guys to get fooled by offspeed pitches at times, but fastballs.

This is my unscientific impression (and I don’t know where to find swing-and-miss data anyway), but it seems to me he just whiffs at an inordinate number of fastballs – some of them good ones, but some of them rotten little 89 mph fastballs down the middle. Does anyone else have the same impression?

I’m not too concerned yet, partly because he’s shown himself to be extremely streaky in the past. Last year he had two torrid stretches (almost a whole month hitting just under .500, and a blistering finish with the AAA playoffs and his September callup), but his numbers outside those stretches were poor enough that his overall numbers were merely OK. I’d sure like to see him kick it into gear, though.

by Faust on Jun 9, 2008 12:34 PM PDT up reply actions  

if that is indeed the case ...

... then (a) his problem is that MLB pitchers are more capable of adjusting speeds than minor-league pitchers are, and (b) the only way for him to rectify that shortcoming is by seeing lots more MLB-quality pitching and all its attendant addition/subtraction.

Why does such a wonderful man like such terrible things? @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jun 9, 2008 1:04 PM PDT up reply actions  

His contact rate is indeed below average

per Fangraphs. (I love these new plate discipline stats that they have. Crazy useful.) And his Z-contact rate (contact rate on balls in the strike zone only) is definitely low.

Just have to wait and see if he improves, I guess.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jun 9, 2008 1:48 PM PDT up reply actions  

What have we learned so far?

That the 2008 A’s aren’t quite ready (read: not likely to make the post-season), but they’re still damned exciting and we have every reason to be excited for 2009.

You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the goddamn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all. ~Earl Weaver

by UncleLeo on Jun 9, 2008 11:16 AM PDT reply actions  

Jack Cust would be a legitimate all-star in a very weak DH field, with Ortiz out ...

could even be named the starter …

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Jun 9, 2008 11:51 AM PDT reply actions  

You're forgetting someone

57 games at DH and an OPS of 1068 or thereabouts—hands down best in league.

Milton Bradley

I don’t see Cust. It’ll be a pitcher.

by madmongoose on Jun 9, 2008 12:02 PM PDT up reply actions  

Not forgetting him ...

just figuring him to be only his team’s third most deserving all-star (relative to position) behind Young and Kinsler and that the Rangers are unlikely to get three representatives …

Don’t misunderstand me - Bradley is better than Young - but the SS position is so weak, and Young is so clearly the cream of that class, he has to be there.

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Jun 9, 2008 1:43 PM PDT up reply actions  

3rd?? you mean 4th, of course

Also behind the guy who is contending for the Triple Crown

Haven’t tried to do the AS exercise yet, but it just seems to me that on a team with a reputation for pitching, that’s what we’ll get—not a 250 hitting slugger

by madmongoose on Jun 9, 2008 2:14 PM PDT up reply actions  

Oh yeah, him too ...

my bad …

Francona is going to have to pick someone to replace the injured/sure to be voted in anyway David Ortiz. The most deserving (I think, though I’m not 100% on who else might be eligible for the position) are Bradley, Matsui and Cust.

Bradley, as discussed, is the 4th best AS candidate on a mediocre team and Matsui is on the same team as sure things A-Rod and Jeter as well as Giambi, Rivera and Chamberlain, all of whom merit strong consideration and, as a Yankee, is unlikely to get any favors from the Red Sox’ manager. Cust, on the other hand, is the only offensive candidate on a team that would otherwise likely only send one pitcher … (Harden, I think, if he’s still healthy)

Unless Francona takes someone who isn’t actually a DH - to allow himself to take an extra, OF, for example - I can’t think of a better choice (given the realities and politics of it all …)

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Jun 9, 2008 2:45 PM PDT up reply actions  

Milton Bradley is far and away the AL's best hitter this year.

He makes it, no questions asked. (well if we were picking teams today).

Jeremy was safe. He jumped over the tag.

by mrrickyg on Jun 9, 2008 2:52 PM PDT up reply actions  

He has had a hell of a last week ...

On June 2nd you couldn’t have said that …

You’re right, though … I have been selling Bradley short … didn’t realize just how good he has been this year …

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Jun 9, 2008 3:07 PM PDT up reply actions  

I think he's finally going to get "the contract" this year

Wonder who’s going to give it to him. New York? They need a new DH with Giambi (presumably) gone.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jun 9, 2008 3:13 PM PDT up reply actions  

I think/hope Milton's smart enough to not play in NY

Why does such a wonderful man like such terrible things? @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jun 9, 2008 3:28 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah, until this week...

He was just the AL’s best hitter…not far and away the best hitter :-D

Jeremy was safe. He jumped over the tag.

by mrrickyg on Jun 9, 2008 3:35 PM PDT up reply actions  

Bradley is being inflated by the Texas stadium. His splits are pretty dramatic

, though on the road he would still be 2nd best on this team, but only 2 of 14 homers on the road.

Overall AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB HBP SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS

Home 96 23 37 8 0 12 29 18 2 21 2 0 .385 .491 .844 1.335
Away 105 19 31 11 0 2 14 21 1 28 0 2 .295 .411 .457 .868

by theblackpearl on Jun 9, 2008 4:07 PM PDT up reply actions  

his OPS+ is still 38 pts higher than the next guy (Giambi)

Funny, I remember an earlier Neyer column this year that called Giambi the worst defensive 1B/DH in the league.

Jeremy was safe. He jumped over the tag.

by mrrickyg on Jun 10, 2008 12:34 AM PDT up reply actions  

*

offensive

Jeremy was safe. He jumped over the tag.

by mrrickyg on Jun 10, 2008 12:34 AM PDT up reply actions  

What Have We Learned Lately?

That nobody agrees with anything madmongoose says even if only for the sake of disagreeing with him.

"The two of them deserve each other. One's a born liar, the other's convicted."

by SwampyD on Jun 9, 2008 4:21 PM PDT reply actions  

reminds me of someone ...

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Jun 9, 2008 4:46 PM PDT up reply actions  

lols

"The two of them deserve each other. One's a born liar, the other's convicted."

by SwampyD on Jun 10, 2008 10:12 AM PDT up reply actions  

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