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Swing and a Miss: The Differences Between Justin Duchscherer and Rich Harden

Recently I made a comment during Rich Harden's last start (before yesterday) that if he has a negative it's the fact that opposition batters have such a hard time making solid contact with his stuff.  That leads to his pitch count often getting up and early because as most folks know, strike out pitchers often wind up with higher pitch counts.  For years the A's have preached to guys like Mulder and Hudson to try and induce contact early and let the quality defense behind you do their jobs.  It's hard to do that when people can't seem to touch anything you throw up there.  It's like Harden is sometimes playing a different game than anyone else out there.

For example, Rich Harden has a fascinating stat this season.  Harden is arguably the most untouchable he has been in his career.  And if you judge by the contact that players make when they swing at one of his pitches, that appears to be the case.  Opposing batters are only making contact 66 percent of the time when they swing at a Harden pitch.  That is a ridiculous number.  For example, Johan Santana, who was widely considered the best pitcher in baseball for quite a few years when he was with the Twins had a contact percentage on swings of 69 and 67 percent.  These were years when he was striking out 265 guys.  Santana's percentage this year is 78 percent.  For those of you wondering, Barry Zito's contact percentage is 86 percent, the highest it's been in his career.

Rich Harden gets all the attention because he has that fastball that can approach 98 mph when he wants to ramp it up.  But I actually like watching a pitcher like Justin Duchscherer more.  Don't get me wrong, Harden making hitters look goofy is a treat to watch too, but Duke's ability to induce guys to make poor contact while putting the ball in play is also a skill.  Maybe not as sexy as the flamethrower, but I also love watching a guy where the opposition fans are saying to themselves, "He's only throwing 87 and his curveball just seems to float up there, how come we're not pounding this guy?"

If you look at Duke's stats , his contact percentage is 81 percent.  The funny thing is that Duke has been right around 81 percent contact throughout his career, showing a remarkable consistency.  Outside of his first year when the percentage was 85 percent contact on swings, Duke has been plus or minus two percentage points every other year.  Harden, for comparison, has a difference of 10 percentage points.  The good news being that he was at 76 percent contact his first season and has climbed downwards to 66.  He's become progressively more difficult to make contact with (another comparison is Felix Hernandez who has a contact percentage of 80 percent).

As a result of all this, Duke is averaging about 3.68 pitches per plate appearance and Harden is averaging 4.10 pitches per plate appearance.  Of course Harden is the dominant ace.  The strikeout king.  But I'd also like to see him go later in games.  He only has two complete games in his career.  Now there's no question to me who is the "better" pitcher and the guy that I would want out there if the A's needed to win one game.  Harden has some of the nastiest stuff I've ever seen. 

But for me, my personal preference is that I love watching a pitcher work the zone with pinpoint control and Duke is one of the best at that.  He doesn't have that baffling stuff, but the guy knows how to move inside and outside on batters.  He knows how to drop a remarkable curveball for a strike in a very predictable fastball count.  He does the best to keep the batters off balance because he can't rely on pulling 96 mph out of his back pocket.  On the other hand, hitting against a pitcher like this is remarkably frustrating.  Jamie Moyer used to drive me bananas whenever he went against the A's because he was just that kind of pitcher. 

So while many probably circle days when Harden is slated to pitch, I'm often circling the days when Duke is scheduled to pitch because I'm almost always guaranteed to see a guy work every inch of the zone.  You'll rarely see Duke throw a fastball down the middle and get away with it.  Harden, well, he can do it because his fastball has such velocity and movement that he can get away with it.

Do you care what kind of pitcher a guy is?  Are you in love with the heat?  Is the most dominant pitcher your thing knowing that that pitcher could possibly do something special every time he goes out there (like a no-no)?

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Good Summary

Each to their own taste. I confess to preferring the Harden dominance, but your points about pitch counts and how the two approach a game are spot on. The great thing is that we have one of each variety to anchor this rotation. If we can get 150+ innings out of each of them this year it improves our chances of making the playoffs and obviously strengthens BB’s trading hand considerably. But Duke is making a believer out of a lot of people—I think his ERA may rise in the coming weeks, but I think he’ll still give us a good chance to win most nights.

by madmongoose on Jun 9, 2008 8:11 AM PDT   0 recs

Strikeouts don't lead to higher pitch counts

All else being equal, a pitcher’s strikeout rate has virtually nothing to do with his pitch count. Yes, strikeouts use more pitches than most other plate appearances do. But allowing a ball in play will lead to a hit about 30% of the time, adding an extra plate appearance a pitcher must undertake.

According to this THT article, the average SO takes 4.8 pitches, while the average non-SO takes 3.3 pitches. If a BIP replaces the SO, the pitcher will save 1.5 pitches in that PA. But that BIP will lead to an extra PA 30% of the time, which adds another 1 pitch (.3 * 3.3 = 1). And sometimes those extra PA will lead to more PA. A strikeout (virtually) guarantees an out, which saves as many extra pitches as the strikeouts costs.

Here’s a graph from that THT article:

by Danny on Jun 9, 2008 8:12 AM PDT   0 recs

But surely there can be exceptions to this

Maddux and Nolan Ryan as the extremes.

The early Nolan Ryan, that is—who was “two true outcomes” when racking up 130+ pitch counts (and often 150+) a lot.

So given that, why couldn’t a certain pair of pitchers deviate from this graph? I think Harden will always struggle with pitch counts—because the way he gets batters to miss may also lead to more walks or foul balls when he’s a bit off.

by madmongoose on Jun 9, 2008 8:20 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

But those are because of walks

Ryan walked a ton of guys—Maddux hardly walked anyone.

I think Duke’s lower pitch counts are much more easily attributed to his lower BB rate and lower BABIP than to his lower SO rate.

by Danny on Jun 9, 2008 8:22 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I bet in Maddux' case it's not all walks

I think he’s always been more efficient about recording outs than the average bear.

But someone should examine Harden’s career and see if the pitch count deviates from what the other metrics suggest it should be.

by madmongoose on Jun 9, 2008 8:26 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Danny

I’m glad you posted those numbers and references because there have been some prominient posters around here explaining that the reason Harden doesn’t pitch complete games is because of his strikeouts.

"The two of them deserve each other. One's a born liar, the other's convicted."

by SwampyD on Jun 9, 2008 10:39 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

the real questions here are:

Do some pitchers get strikeouts with fewer pitches than others? Is Harden in the latter category? If Harden’s pitch count cannot be explained by either his strikeout or walk rate, then what is the explanation? Do some pitchers produce more foul balls? MY anecdotal self says yes, but I’m willing to listen to the data, which may suggest otherwise. Where’s Voros McCracken when we need him??

The aggregate numbers are great but really don’t prove a thing about the guy we’re talking about.

by madmongoose on Jun 9, 2008 11:14 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Why can't it be explained by his walk rate?

Especially combined with his relatively high BABIP?

by Danny on Jun 9, 2008 11:29 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

you're probably right, actually

it’s been 4 per 9 IP for his career. So then to get back to Blez’ original question, si there something inherent about Harden’s pitching style that will always be high K high W—or could the latter be greatly reduced at some point?

by madmongoose on Jun 9, 2008 11:38 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Probably something that can be reduced...

Keep in mind with his relatively limited experience (119IP in the past 3 years) I think it’s amazing he’s able to just go out and pretty much dominate like he does. If he can stay healthy it’s probably reasonable to say his pitches per AB and BB/9 will drop.

"The two of them deserve each other. One's a born liar, the other's convicted."

by SwampyD on Jun 9, 2008 12:05 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

harden's pitch count....

What no one has talked about is that the reason harden isn’t lasting long is that he goes 0-2 to 3-2 wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy to often. He has the great ability to get 0-2, but then thows 2 or 3 pitches that aren’t typically close the the zone for people to chase. Why he doesn’t throw is change in the dirt/split in those counts more is beyond me.

On the flip side, I don’t think he needs to K everyone. In 2005, he did a good job at getting people to make contact. His best starts (via memory and aid from game logs) shows that his best starts he kept the k/9 at or under 9.

"If people don't know who he is, they'd better turn on the television and check him out."

by jacobo2u on Jun 9, 2008 4:54 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Harden's fun to watch, but...

...in the end I think I care more about consistency, getting outs, limiting damage, getting shutdown innings after our side scores, and the ability to pitch later into games. In that regard, I don’t really care a whole lot how someone gets the job done, just that he does.

At the same time, it’s fun to watch a pitcher with the ability to blow hitters away, but it’s also fun to watch someone who you look at and think “There’s no way he should be getting these guys out the way he does” yet he does. Look at how long Jamie Moyer did it. There’s a classic example of someone who learned how to pitch because he couldn’t just throw a near-100 MPH fastball by someone. When you can watch a pitcher with great command of the ball and strike zone (hello, Greg Maddux), that’s something special.

Even more impressive are the pitchers who start out one way then adapt to continue pitching well as their velocity goes down. See: Frank Tanana. There’s a guy who, early in his career, topped 200 strikeouts three of his first four full seasons, then later on still pitched pretty well in spite of those totals dropping.

Last of the Ninth - Photography Site
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by Flashfire on Jun 9, 2008 8:20 AM PDT   0 recs

I'm curious

why Detroit took Bonderman when they had a chance at Harden. I wonder who got the best of the deal all in all

Let's have our Piazza and eat the Cust too - SPWC

by closetasfan on Jun 9, 2008 8:50 AM PDT   0 recs

Harden wasn't even eligible to be traded at that point, IIRC

He was a draft-and-follow, no? I’m not sure they had even inked him yet.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jun 9, 2008 9:19 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Harden as a reliever/Just throwing two pitches???

If Rich goes down with arm trouble again, I’d like to see them move him to a closer role. Strikeouts are so key in the final few innings, when you get guys on and any ball hit into play might score a run. Rich is exactly the type of pitcher to get those swings-and-misses. Street is also a good strikeout pitcher when he is on, but I’ve seen him leave balls up in the zone and get hit hard so many times, I question if he’ll ever be able to secure more than 80% of his SVOs.

The broadcasters have been talking a lot about Harden relying on two pitches this year more than before. Anyone know how true this is? Have some hard numbers on it? Does the splitter put more strain on the arm than other pitchers? Unless I’m mistaken he is throwing a lot fewer of these this year, relying on that sick downward-moving change up a lot more.

by Mark Borgschulte on Jun 9, 2008 9:08 AM PDT   0 recs

I've said this before, but describing Harden as "only throwing two pitches"

really isn’t an accurate way to put it. He throws the ball with two different grips, yes. But the velocity and movement of the pitches is not constant. He’ll vary his fastball from 98 all the way down to 88-89, and the change can go 81 to 89, with more or less break on the ball.

We may or may not ever get to see it over the long haul, because his pitching arm might explode at any moment, but I think the April 2 start was kind of a watershed in The Education of Rich Harden. He was sore (this was right before he went on the DL), so he wasn’t getting consistent mechanics on his fastball and his velocity was all over the place. And yet it was totally baffling to the opposing hitters. They couldn’t gear up for anything because they had no clue how fast it was going to be. Since he returned from the DL, he’s been doing this consciously, and it’s made him arguably the best he’s ever been.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jun 9, 2008 9:17 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

so true...

Harden has two pitches, but really, Harden never throws anything the same way twice in a row. Every pitch is a little different in speed and a little different in movement.

"You have to have a catcher or you'll have all passed balls."- Casey Stengel

by Gaijin_Suketto on Jun 9, 2008 1:40 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

interesting

and the splitter? seems like he’s not throwing that so much anymore.

by Mark Borgschulte on Jun 11, 2008 9:24 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

And it was updated within hours of the event.

Ain’t the wiki grand? (if not always accurate.)

by MobiusKlein on Jun 9, 2008 9:58 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Wiki is freakishly fast sometimes.

Not this year but the year before, I followed the first couple rounds of the MLB draft on Wikipedia. It was as current as the sports sites, and easier to get through to.

formerly known as mdl

by iglew on Jun 9, 2008 9:48 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

thanks for that list

really, for Sloppy Thurston.

by rebus on Jun 9, 2008 9:58 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Sloppy's second

In the AL to do it, anyway.

Last of the Ninth - Photography Site
jamesvenes.com - Blog

by Flashfire on Jun 9, 2008 10:03 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Not a bad group

Sandy Koufax, Pedro Martinez, Rick Helling, Rich Harden.

Looks like it’s most common in the ninth, which makes sense.

formerly known as mdl

by iglew on Jun 9, 2008 9:50 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Both can win

We all know we love Hardens stuff as its exciting to watch. Any strikeout pitcher is. Duke’s consistency is less flashy but also effective.

I prefer harden’s as a fan watching a game, but fact is, we have two different style pitchers who can both give us a high percentage chance of winning everytime they take the mound. You know what you’re going to get from them and they will rarely get lit up.

They both have shown the constant ability to get outs and put up scoreless inning after scoreless inning for opposing offenses.

I think we will see a game shortly from harden where he doesn’t allow any runs, the fact that he’s only given up a few runs in a couple innings through his starts this year show me he’s on the up and up. Take into account the only real team that has not been of any threat with their poor batting was the Tigers. He’s been very good against some of the best hitting lineups in the league. Including those rangers, who in my opinion are the best hitters in the league this season. When harden gets a start against a sub par hitting team, we will all see his true dominance with an near impecable stat line, one where we will only need one run to win.

by TheGreenGoldCrush on Jun 9, 2008 9:36 AM PDT   0 recs

Why?

Which one would face the plate and which one would face CF?

"My boyfriend drinks ALOT, you know, because he's a rebel."-Reyna

by tresselfan on Jun 9, 2008 9:43 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Sounds to me like

you really want Harden to pitch against his own team… especially the one we finished with last night.

by GeorgiaBoy on Jun 9, 2008 10:03 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Remember Pedro in his prime?

During the late 90’s, when Pedro had those 2.0 ERA years, he’s got the high 90 fastball, and crazy movements on his pitches. I remember him going deep into the game because he can keep throwing strikes and no one can touch those pitches. I would like to see what his contact % was back in those years? As far as peak years go, those are the most dominant I’ve ever seen a pitcher.

by asfansince1989 on Jun 9, 2008 9:52 AM PDT   0 recs

I love watching both

when they’re on their game, different though they are.

by OaklandSi on Jun 9, 2008 10:35 AM PDT   0 recs

Like pizza and beer
Harden and Duchscherer(er)
They’re both great. Why choose?

"Tomorrow it may rain." - Leo Durocher

by andeux on Jun 9, 2008 10:59 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

exactly, why have all the same type of pitchers

it would be like having nine Hattebergs ;-)

by OaklandSi on Jun 9, 2008 11:06 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

An arm in a sling
Exploratory surg’ry
I’ll take soft tosser

Why does such a wonderful man like such terrible things? @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jun 9, 2008 1:34 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Can mikeA have $20?

The Duke hasn’t exactly been the picture of health either, you know.

"Tomorrow it may rain." - Leo Durocher

by andeux on Jun 9, 2008 2:00 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

yes, he most likely can

Oh, I know—and I had (and expressed) grave doubts about Duke’s ability to come back this year. But he’s proved me more wrong than Harden has.

Why does such a wonderful man like such terrible things? @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jun 9, 2008 2:19 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Good point

I actually love watching both, but I really get amped about Duke’s outings because I love watching “underdogs” or guys that people don’t think should be having success. It’s kind of the motto for my life and the kind of players and teams I’m attracted to.

by Blez on Jun 9, 2008 7:08 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Great opposites.

Tricky Dick is all stealth power and freak of nature gifted. When he is on the mound, he knows how good he is and he has a cockiness bordering on disdain for the opposition. And I absolutely love the attitude he brings with him along with watching him blow guys away with seemingly no effort.

So, Duke is the complete antithesis of Harden. All moxie, skill, hard work, and most importantly…......killer instict and a competitive edge that makes me say, “How can you not love The Duke?” Control, 5 pitches for outs, and a “me against the odds and I win so f%#k you all” attitude is what makes me love Duke. Has been and still remains my favorite Oakland Athletic!

by mrod on Jun 9, 2008 10:45 AM PDT   0 recs

The grit - it BURNS

can he be scrappy too?

by MobiusKlein on Jun 9, 2008 11:52 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

One more thing:

Given how nearly all of our top pitching prospects are injured, underperforming, or both, does that mean:

1) beane is more likely to hang on to Harden or Blanton given worries about depth in the rotation?

or

2) More likely to deal same to generate even more low-cost depth??

by madmongoose on Jun 9, 2008 12:12 PM PDT   0 recs

Asking price for Harden

is very high and nobody’s gonna give anything for a season ending injury waiting to happen (according to my excellent source aka ESPN, SF Gate et al). I ultimately think and wish that some team (maybe Atlanta will make another run?) will get desperate enough to give Beane what he wants for Blanton.

"The two of them deserve each other. One's a born liar, the other's convicted."

by SwampyD on Jun 9, 2008 1:02 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Variety, spice of life, etc.

Fireballers are plain fun to watch. They’re the sports cars of the pitching world. Harden, Beckett, Nolan Ryan (ESPN Classic). They’re flashy. They get attention.

Control artists are sedans. Reliable, functional. But it doesn’t necessarily make them less fun to watch. Maddux, Duke, Moyer, Glavine. If anything, it’s easier to appreciate them—there seems to be a lot less pitchers than throwers out there.

Watching elite players at the top of their game is great entertainment, no matter what their styles. As opposed to watching, say, Carlos Silva.

President and CEO of the Ryan Sweeney Apologists Consortium

by Joey C. on Jun 9, 2008 1:28 PM PDT   0 recs

Does this make Blanton the family stationwagon?

Considering the consistency he’s given to us, it’s kinda sad Blanton hasn’t gotten his own bobblehead. Heck, even Ellis has one and it’s not like he’s a superstar.

by Rickeyfan on Jun 9, 2008 9:15 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Bobblestomach?

Jiggles from the middle – Gettin’ Jiggy with it!

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jun 9, 2008 9:20 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Seriously

Why does Kurt Suzuki have a bobblehead and Joe Blanton doesn’t? That’s just weird.

formerly known as mdl

by iglew on Jun 9, 2008 9:54 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Maybe only if they're considered part of the foreseeable future

(i.e. next couple years)

I think the writing should be on the wall to Blanton …
Byrnes never got a bobblehead
Scutaro never got a bobblehead
Both were arguably more popular than Country Joe.

Meanwhile players like Bradley and Piazza have come and gone. Thomas probably would’ve counted except he came back.

In a ‘fair’ world, Blanton would get pegged for bobblehead #4 this year. In reality, I think it’s more likely Barton or C-Gon gets it, since the A’s have the tendency towards going towards the hopefully rookie/2nd yr (Buck, Suzuki, Street, Crosby)

by Rickeyfan on Jun 9, 2008 10:57 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Cust, dammit!

Why does such a wonderful man like such terrible things? @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jun 10, 2008 10:23 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I don't know about styles...

But I’ve been in love with Rich ever since he came up, and so therefore I would always rather watch him pitch. But I do admit that the high pitch counts get a little annoying after awhile, and I would love nothing more than to see him get deeper into games. I don’t think it’s possible to have a super pitcher that does BOTH…which would be perfect. I watch the Rockies a lot, and Aaron Cook is a master at pitching to contact…he’s extremely efficient, and I think it’s really fun to watch. I like the contact pitchers, but I also love watching all those swings and misses. Best of both worlds, I guess…

www.notthisday.com ....coming September 26th and 27th at the Pinnacle Event Center, Denver.

by Squeaky on Jun 9, 2008 1:57 PM PDT   0 recs

What is great is being able to pitch them back-to-back. Because of their converse pitching style’s, the effect if polarizing and maximizes the up-sides of their respective ability’s. Can you imagine facing Harden’s 98FB, and then the next night facing Duke’s sniper FB’s and that big-loopy curve?

by KarvKid510 on Jun 9, 2008 5:16 PM PDT   0 recs

Agreed

They’re a nice punch/counter-punch mix.

by Blez on Jun 9, 2008 7:09 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Is there any truth behind it though?

I’ve seen this notion expressed by sportswriters over the decades but I have yet to see any hard data confirming that alternating flamethrowers and junkballers produces any kind of advantage. It used to come up quite a bit when knuckleballer Joe Niekro pitched on the Astros with J.R. Richard and Nolan Ryan. It resurfased some years later in Arlington when Ryan and Bobby Witt served up the heat along with Charlie Hough’s knuckler and Jamie Moyer’s soft slop. Does anyone know of any studies that confirm or dismiss this bit of conventional baseball wisdom?

Root for the Giants? Not even if they're playing al-Qaeda!

by Monday Fan on Jun 10, 2008 12:26 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I asked someone who would know that very question today

Reply was that there have been all sorts of studies—none definitive

by madmongoose on Jun 10, 2008 12:41 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Joe Saunders doing his Barry Zito imitation

Back to Back to Back bombs to TB

by Trainman on Jun 9, 2008 7:32 PM PDT   0 recs

He went all Padilla on us

But don’t stop!

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jun 9, 2008 7:36 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs


Why does such a wonderful man like such terrible things? @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jun 10, 2008 10:25 AM PDT   0 recs

Good thing this diary wasn't about Chuck Finley

"Tomorrow it may rain." - Leo Durocher

by andeux on Jun 10, 2008 10:44 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

what would the problem be with that?



Why does such a wonderful man like such terrible things? @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jun 10, 2008 11:06 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

or ...


Why does such a wonderful man like such terrible things? @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jun 10, 2008 12:07 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

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