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Blantons W/L record misleading

Blanton starts:

3/25: 5.2IP, 3ER  - ND
4/1: 6 IP, 2 ER - L (QS)
4/6: 6.2 IP, 2 ER - L (QS)
4/11: 7.2 IP, 5 ER - W
4/16: 8 IP, 4 ER - L
4/22: 7.2 IP, 4 ER - L
4/27: 7 IP, 2 ER - W (QS)
5/2: 7 IP, 2 ER - L (QS)
5/7: 5.2 IP, 2 ER - ND
5/14: 7 IP, 2 ER - L (QS)
5/19: 6 IP, 4 ER - ND
5/25: 6 IP, 3 ER - W (QS)
5/31: 6 IP, 6 ER - L
6/6: 7 IP, 2 ER - L (QS)
6/12: 6.2 IP, 4 ER - L
6/18: 3 IP, 8 ER - L
6/24: 7 IP, 1 ER - W (QS)
6/29: 4 IP, 7 ER - L

In starts he gives up 3 ER or less: 3-5, 2 ND
In starts he gives up 4 ER: 0-3, 1 ND
In starts he gives up 5 ER or more: 1-3

Joe Blanton has pitched 8 quality starts, garnering a 3-5 record (3 deserved wins, 5 tough losses).

Lets analyze Mike Mussina of the New York Yankees, who has arguably been their best starter this year.  Mussina has also thrown 8 quality starts to the tune of a 7-1 record. 

Blanton QS: 16 ER
Mussina QS: 13 ER

Joe Blanton on the New York Yankees, by my best guess, would be 6-2 in the 8 quality starts he has made. 

Also, Blanton has given up exactly 4 ER 4 times this season.  The Yankees are 7th in scoring this year, scoring 385 runs through 82 games, or 4.7 runs a game.  Lets figure Blanton goes 2-2 when giving up 4 ERs.

Blanton has given up 5 ER, 6 ER, 7 ER and 8 ER.  Lets figure he does what hes done on the A's and is 1-3 in those games.

As a New York Yankee, I guestimate Joe Blanton at 9-7, and this has been a down year for him. 

Compared to the rest of their pitching staff, he'd be #3 right now behind Pettitte and Mussina and #4 with Wang back. 

Nobody can tell me Joe Blanton would not make an EXCELLENT #3/#4 innings eating pitcher, and the Yankees have some prospects to give.  The problem is expecting Blanton to be an ace of a staff who doesn't give run support on a consistent basis, besides the weekly outburst.  The A's offense struggles against finesse lefties and righties who throw heat and command the strike zone.  Blanton as an ace faces the other teams ace, which usually falls into one of those two categories. 

Now I don't have the stats to back everything up, this is merely my opinion, and some other opinions gathered from choice stats and estimations. 

I think GMs who undervalue Joe are sorely mistaken.  He is a huge relief to the bullpen and gives you a quality start for the most part.  As of late, hes been horrible, but mentally I'm sure he feels he cannot win.  On a team that scores runs consistently for him, I'm sure that would do a lot for his psyche.  I hope Beane waits as long as possible, a good deal HAS to be out there for this type of pitcher, especially as the trade deadline gets closer and teams bound for the playoffs or a push make a move. 

Oakland needs starters who can dominate.  Think Harden, not Blanton. 

I'm still in love with Rich Hardens stuff, and if he can continue to throw only a fastball / changeup combination for the most part, and sticks to his word of learning to pitch more, I think the injuries MAY be behind him.  I've thought this 10,000 times before, but I think there is no trade value acceptable for what he returns healthy, UNLESS somebody really overpays his current stock.  Harden has been healthy as of late, and I know it's easy to believe it's only a matter of time before hes hurt again, but I for one am thoroughly enjoying his starts.  The possibility of trading him for a couple of prospects and watching him dominate the playoffs / World Series for another team is too much to bear.  I would personally ride Harden to the end, either he's a dominate Athletic or he rides off into the sunset. 

Duchscherer BETTER not be traded, either.  He has an amazing art form on the mound and its superior pitching when hes on the mound.  Harden / Duchscherer back to back can really give teams extreme fits.  I would love to see them 1-2 with anybody else on the rebuilding market. 

Oakland's strength at the farm system is pitching.  Trade pitching where we can get quality prospects, besides Rich and Justin, and give more opportunities to young pitchers, like we have Eveland and Smith.  Our pitching is always a pleasant surprise, and the Colesium does nothing but help a young pitchers psyche early on.

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Blantons W/L record misleading

Excellent job with the article!

+1

Beating LAA or wherever the fu*k they are, Priceless!

by MMunoz33 on Jun 30, 2008 7:00 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Recommend it if you really think +1

I generally bemoan the profusion of Mr Sabermetric Sporks in the Scrabble ranks who don't know the meaning or usage of 50% of the words they use. -monkeyball

by JediLeroy on Jun 30, 2008 2:43 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Is his ERA misleading?

If you were the buyer instead of the seller you might have a different estimation of Big Joe. Remember, in the playoffs, IP’s don’t help. You need to be able to get outs against good teams, who tend to start multiple #1-quality starters.

by Mark Borgschulte on Jul 2, 2008 7:42 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

This is an interesting analysis

But does it take the two parks into account? Blanton against a lefty dominated lineup in the Bronx with his flyball tendencies might be ugly. If Beane can get something for him, he will. And I agree that Harden’s value is made complicated by injury. Better to wait until the offseason I believe, IF, he stays healthy the rest of the way.

But very good post.

by windyfelix on Jun 30, 2008 8:48 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

A couple thoughts to add on to your excellent analysis

1. While Blanton has rarely pitched “terribly” he has also rarely pitched “great” – he has allowed less than 2 ER in only one start, which is especially problematic when your team is second in all of baseball in scoring less than two runs. But he HAS allowed only 2 ER seven times, and 2 ER should be good enough to win almost any time – especially with a deep and effective bullpen, as the A’s have had.

2. Blanton has put an awful lot of people on base. Not only has he allowed 130 hits in 114 IP, but he walked 33, preventing him from pulling a Carlos Silva (the year he walked 9 batters all season). That’s a WHIP of 1.43 and means that Blanton has regressed past being Silva to being…do I dare say it out loud?...it’s too awful…ok take a deep breath and just say it…here goes…

...Livan Hernandez.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jun 30, 2008 9:17 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, but at least Hernandez could help himself at the plate

Whether that’s with a bat in his hands or a fork and knife, I’m not saying. Could be both.

Last of the Ninth - Photography Site
jamesvenes.com - Blog

by Flashfire on Jun 30, 2008 9:51 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

The latest A's Magazine has one of those one-page...

...’fill out the answers to these questions’ things and his answer to “food you shouldn’t eat but can’t avoid” (or something like that) was “biscuits and gravy.”

Last of the Ninth - Photography Site
jamesvenes.com - Blog

by Flashfire on Jun 30, 2008 10:24 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

can we please retire the "ace faces the other teams ace" nonsense?

Aside from the first couple weeks of the season, it just doesn’t happen in the regular season.

6/29: Sanchez
6/24 Jamie Moyer
6/18 Haren
6/12 Pettite
6/6 Lackey
5/31 Ponson
5/25 Lester
5/19 Shields
5/14 Sabathia
5/7 Guthrie
5/2 Padilla (listed as #1 on the Rangers depth chart, though it’s a stretch to call Padilla an “ace”)
4/27 Felix H.
4/22 Joe’s Cuban doppleganger
4/16 Felix H.
4/11 Sabathia
4/6 Cliff Lee
4/1 Matsuzaka (see below; plus, with bizarre travel/rest schedule, both teams had the “free” opportunity to reset their rotations)
3/25 Matsuzaka (mostly slotted at #1 position because of opener being played in Tokyo)

18 starts total, with 8 vs #1 starter. And notice how the frequency of the #1-#1 matchups is dropping off? Eliminate March/April, and you’ve got 3 #1s out of 11 starts.

Can an aging lemur suffer from dementia? @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jun 30, 2008 10:00 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

8 out of 18 sure seems like a lot to me

Since random distribution would yield 4 (assuming the #5 starter is skipped half the time by the other team).

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jun 30, 2008 10:53 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

haren lester shields guthrie lee

all are close to #1s

"It's not my fault your team's so shitty." -Steve Friend, head coach, Chabot College, to Laney College's head coach, who asked why we scored so many runs after we beat Laney 30-3 in 2006

by flipgatey3 on Jun 30, 2008 10:58 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Certainly Haren and Shields

could be #1s on many teams. Lester and Guthrie probably are not better than #2s – after all, #2s are pretty darn good, just not “awesome”.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jun 30, 2008 11:06 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

sure

what i mean is this (and i should probably have gone more in-depth)

haren, shields: #1 caliber
lester: very talented, pitching well, in time could be a “one” (imo)
guthrie: orioles ace. take what you will from that
lee: one of the better pitchers in the AL (overall), even though he’s fallen off a little of late.

they ain’t chopped liver.

"It's not my fault your team's so shitty." -Steve Friend, head coach, Chabot College, to Laney College's head coach, who asked why we scored so many runs after we beat Laney 30-3 in 2006

by flipgatey3 on Jun 30, 2008 4:02 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

BUT THAT'S NOT THE FREAKING POINT!

Jiminy Cricket, do I need to bust out a PT-style smackdown here?

Can an aging lemur suffer from dementia? @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jun 30, 2008 11:08 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

You're on your own here

since I agree with flipgatey; Blanton has clearly matched up with a higher than normal number of tough opponents.

Today or tonight I will look at what the A’s record would be if you flipped the runs scored/allowed by Blanton and Harden in each of their starts. Nico suggested that he thought making Harden the ”#1” would have won the A’s some more games. Personally, I have no idea, so I’m curious to see what turns up.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jun 30, 2008 11:42 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'd be interested in seeing that, also with Duke's numbers.

They’ve had some pretty good games scoring runs with him on the mound.

Last of the Ninth - Photography Site
jamesvenes.com - Blog

by Flashfire on Jun 30, 2008 11:49 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

well, I guess you, like several others, need to work on your reading comprehension

The only thing I was complaining about was the canard that “Blanton as an ace faces the other teams ace,” which is intuitively and empirically untrue.

So what if “Blanton has clearly matched up with a higher than normal number of tough opponents”? Are you now in the run-support-and-wins-are-measures-of-pitching-quality camp?

Can an aging lemur suffer from dementia? @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jun 30, 2008 12:07 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

The entire point of my original post says that much – W/L record is misleading.

Run support is only introduced in my post to show what his W/L record could be elsewhere.

I agree with you entirely – I think both stats are highly irrelevant in gauging a pitchers success.

Nico explained Blantons problem best, which is his WHIP. 1.4+?!

by BillMoresi on Jun 30, 2008 12:14 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

sorry, I should have clarified

I agree with everything you said in your well-written FanPost, with the exception of the ace-ace canard.

Can an aging lemur suffer from dementia? @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jun 30, 2008 1:15 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Quack Quack Quack

goes the canard?

I do like that you’ve proven yourself wrong (Blanton has faced far more than his share of aces) but are calling everyone else incapable of reading. No one argues that aces ALWAYS face aces, as that would be silly. If that’s your point, you’re fighting a canard with a straw man.

by nevermoor on Jun 30, 2008 1:42 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

wrong, thanks for playing

“Blanton as an ace faces the other teams ace”

No conditions attached to that statement. Not a straw man.

Can an aging lemur suffer from dementia? @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jun 30, 2008 1:48 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm missing the word "always"

For example, I like watching baseball.

This means that I watch it more than most people, but I promise you there are times when I don’t feel like watching baseball. Pointing out those instances doesn’t make the original statement wrong.

by nevermoor on Jun 30, 2008 1:51 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Of course not

The only reason I care about the issue is, as I stated, because I’m curious what would have happened had Harden and not Blanton been the Opening Day starter.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jun 30, 2008 12:22 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't think there's really any way of knowing

As there will (probably) be times where one pitched against a team and the other didn’t (or the team used substantially different lineups on the two days). I don’t think mechanically switching numbers around will provide much insight.

by nevermoor on Jun 30, 2008 1:43 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Shrug

Insight be damned, I’m curious.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jun 30, 2008 1:50 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Valid point, but I consider Shields Tampas ace (since Kazmir was out). Pettitte & Haren are aces for 4 out of 5 teams, Lee has had arguably the best first half of ANY pitcher in Baseball, and at the time Blanton faced him, he was nearly unhittable. He faced Lester the week AFTER the no-no. Guthrie is having another good season (quality starts, low ERA).

That is a TOUGH list for any pitcher to face.

by BillMoresi on Jun 30, 2008 12:11 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Isn't the point here that...

he’s given up 4 ERs or more 5 of the last 8 outings—and with this team and its “ineffective but for a 10+ run explosion every blue moon” offense, that is just not good enough.

by windyfelix on Jun 30, 2008 1:21 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I 100% agree with the majority of your points

No argument here that (a) Blanton isn’t a bad pitcher, (b) W/L and run support aren’t measures of pitching performance, and© for those who care about W/L, Joe’s been relatively unlucky in who the A’s hitters have had to face in his starts.

Can an aging lemur suffer from dementia? @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jun 30, 2008 1:23 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

really, I should have clarified those in my initial point

Apologies for throwing the thread off into acrimony.

Can an aging lemur suffer from dementia? @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jun 30, 2008 1:49 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Haren and Lee also have ace stuff, so you can swap one of them for Padilla

Fact is, half his starts have been against pitchers that are arguably better than him. You could add Pettitte to the equation as well.

Last of the Ninth - Photography Site
jamesvenes.com - Blog

by Flashfire on Jun 30, 2008 10:06 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

"half his starts have been against pitchers that are arguably better than him"

Which you can say about any pitcher in the 40th-60th percentile (giving a lot of room for error due to vagaries of assessment schemes).

Joe’s a slightly better than average innings eater. By definition, then, over a large enough sample, he’ll face pitchers who are his equal or better … about half the time.

Can an aging lemur suffer from dementia? @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jun 30, 2008 10:33 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I hadn't seen this thread when I did a

similar analysis on the other Blanton thread.

Monkeyball, I get your point that #1 doesn’t face #1. I’m not arguing that. I am arguing that Blanton has faced an unusually high proportion of top pitchers as opponents.

Average current ERA of the 18 pitchers Blanton has faced is 3.44. That’s good enough to rank #11 in the AL among qualifying pitchers.

This isn’t just a matter of Blanton being 40th-60th percentile. He’s been facing a freakishly high quality of opponents. A few of those really are due to #1’s remaining on cycle (ie, Matsuzaka twice and Felix twice). The rest, I think, is mostly coincidence.

"Dispatch knuckleheadedness with Bond-like aplomb." –74mk

by iglew on Jun 30, 2008 8:02 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

plus, the argument isn't "facing pitchers who are better than you"

It’s “ace always/mostly faces another ace.” Which simply ain’t true. Anyone who argues that it is basically doesn’t pay any attention to baseball outside of a handful of games (and espn-televised ones at that) every season.

Can an aging lemur suffer from dementia? @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jun 30, 2008 10:35 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well, I'm not arguing the 'ace vs. ace' part. I don't agree that aces match up...

...more often than not as the season goes on.

However, looking at who the A’s HAVE faced when Blanton pitches, it’s no real surprise they don’t score many runs for him.

Last of the Ninth - Photography Site
jamesvenes.com - Blog

by Flashfire on Jun 30, 2008 10:58 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Looking at the A's lineup, it's no real surprise

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jun 30, 2008 11:06 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

+1

BUT EMIL BROWN IS A FREAKING RBI MACHINE ON PACE FOR 94 THIS SEASON!1!!!

by mikev on Jun 30, 2008 11:18 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

demi-god

"It's not my fault your team's so shitty." -Steve Friend, head coach, Chabot College, to Laney College's head coach, who asked why we scored so many runs after we beat Laney 30-3 in 2006

by flipgatey3 on Jun 30, 2008 4:03 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

No argument there

(Not that run support and wins have anything to do with Blanton’s qualities as a pitcher, though.)

Can an aging lemur suffer from dementia? @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jun 30, 2008 11:11 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

An argument can be made, though

Blanton’s pitching like crap now compared to earlier in the season and we have already heard his mental makeup could use some improvement, but knowing that you probably aren’t going to be able to get away with more than one or two mistakes can’t help.

He’s proven he can pitch better than he is, though.

Last of the Ninth - Photography Site
jamesvenes.com - Blog

by Flashfire on Jun 30, 2008 11:27 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

there's actually a stat to measure that

Baseball Underperformance Lowering Likelihood of Scoring Higher than Inimical Team

Can an aging lemur suffer from dementia? @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jun 30, 2008 12:10 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

fair 'nuff

My opinion, FWIW: if Joe’s not man enough to not wet his pants because the A’s can’t score runs and he occasionally faces a pitcher better than he is, then he doesn’t belong in the majors.

Can an aging lemur suffer from dementia? @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jun 30, 2008 1:17 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

(and, to clarify)

I most definitely don’t think that’s the case with Blanton—I think he’s a decent pitcher and a great competitor, who goes out and pitches his best with no regard for the competition or the likely outcome from the A’s bats.

Can an aging lemur suffer from dementia? @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jun 30, 2008 1:19 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't think he's wetting his pants, per se, but...

...yes, I do think there are times when he tightens up because he knows runs are probably going to be scarce instead of just doing the best he can to get people out since he can’t control anything else.

Last of the Ninth - Photography Site
jamesvenes.com - Blog

by Flashfire on Jun 30, 2008 1:24 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

To say there shouldn't be headcases or mentally weak players in baseball

Pretty much means that, uh, probably like 75% of players would be gone.

by mikev on Jun 30, 2008 1:52 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Uh, I disagree

The minor-league proving grounds and the daily grind of a 162-game schedule pretty much weeds ‘em out.

He's a very personable, sweet, nice chimp. He's not going to be aggressive unless he's provoked. @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jun 30, 2008 2:38 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

To pick one sentence from somebody and make a blanket statement about how much Baseball they watch is highly judgemental with no basis.

When the season starts, the aces are aligned for a period. Notice how 7 of his first 10 starts were against your “aces”?

As the season progresses, it’s only obvious that everybodies 1’s don’t continue to align.

Later in the season, though, pitching rotations are often shuffled to align pitching matchups once again.

Is this explanation suitable for you?

by BillMoresi on Jun 30, 2008 12:25 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

yup

Can an aging lemur suffer from dementia? @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jun 30, 2008 1:24 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I know I am in the minority but I like Joe

and great analysis by the way.

I think Blanton is a solid #3 starter, however I am not sure other teams would agree with that looking at his overall numbers. Thus, I doing not think we can get equal value.

His undoing has been the big inning.
(Hopefully, these numbers are pretty accurate)

On 4/11, he gave up 5 earned runs, all in the 2nd
5/31, 6 earned runs, 3 in the 5th
6/18, 8 earned runs, 5 in the 1st and 3 in the 3rd
6/29, 7 earned runs, 4 in the 5th and 3 in the sixth

I am sure you can do this for a lot of pitchers but take away those JUST those 6 innings and his ERA drops from 4.97 to 3.33

by easyraider on Jun 30, 2008 12:08 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Wow...

That is interesting how much his ERA would fall taking away 6 innings out of how many he has pitched….

I think Blanton is a quality starter and this year has been no indication of his past performances

I also believe hes been left in too long in certain games, where hes noticeably tiring/tired.

No pitcher is going to tell a manager “Hey I’m tired, don’t let me out for the next inning”... the manager has got to read the body language & pitch location.

by BillMoresi on Jun 30, 2008 1:31 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yesterday that wasn't the problem

I think you will find that most pitchers who have really substandard ERAs—as Blanton does this year-are victimized mainly by the big inning—rather than a drip drip drip of one run here two runs there. And that some fo them will come in the 6th or 7th when they are tiring but far too often they’ll occur before that—like yesterday. I live in Chiacgo and Buerhle has been like this for most of the past three years.

by windyfelix on Jun 30, 2008 1:40 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I am sure other pitchers are undone by the big inning as well

Not sure about ‘most’ though.

Just pointing out that that really seems to be one of the things hurting Blanton this year.

The SF game was frustrating. I don’t recall him giving up a hit until the big 5th…then he gives up like 6 or 7 straight.

by easyraider on Jun 30, 2008 2:49 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

But the problem is he can't avoid the big innings when they start

It’s like it was yesterday. Instead of being able to bear down and get someone with an out pitch, he’s often left serving up meatballs to the other side. When the momentum swings away from him, he has problems getting out of trouble. Yesterday just came out of nowhere which makes it even more frustrating.

Last of the Ninth - Photography Site
jamesvenes.com - Blog

by Flashfire on Jun 30, 2008 1:36 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

or like that bad inning against the Yankees

Inning starts: baserunner, baserunner, baserunner, Matsui GS (which actually wasn’t a badly executed pitch, Matsui guessed right and put a great swing on it)—and then Blanton just mowed down the next three batters.

Can an aging lemur suffer from dementia? @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jun 30, 2008 1:51 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Totally agree

Maybe he is having issues pitching from the stretch this year. Seems like once a guy get on, even with 2 outs, he has trouble getting outs.

Until that happens, he seems to be cruising at times.

by easyraider on Jun 30, 2008 2:53 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's a pointless exercise, though.

You’re basically saying that aside from the time he’s been utterly horrible, Blanton has been a good pitcher.

by mikev on Jun 30, 2008 1:54 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Just 6 innings out of 114

As stated, I am sure that is the problem with other underperforming pitchers. Just seems to jump out this year when looking at Blanton.

by easyraider on Jun 30, 2008 2:50 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

But I don't LIKE those innings.

:-( {storms off to sulk}

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 1, 2008 8:31 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Blanton's 6.05 DERA tells me that he's been terrible this year -- AAA level or so.

A 4-11 record is about what I’d expect with his number of innings at that rate.

by WaddellCanseco on Jun 30, 2008 1:35 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

DERA is only relevant to trade value

The stat says he would suck with an average defense, which is certainly a red flag for trading partners. It cannot project future performance with the A’s, however, as we’ll keep on having an excellent defense. We’re stubborn like that.

by nevermoor on Jun 30, 2008 1:52 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

That DERA would be enough to dissuade the Yankees as a trading partner

While a high-powered offensive team could weather Blanton’s often-solid-but-not-special starts, with the Yankees he’d be victimized by their inferior defense. That negates the offensive lift.

He’s essentially not tradeable at this point, IMO. Although they’ve had very different seasons, like Mark Ellis, Blanton probably has a higher perceived value in his own organization than anywhere else.

Duke and Harden are the real prize jewels. It will be fascinating to see if one or the other is moved. I have a hard time imagining any of the contenders can come up with a bevy of prospects that’s truly commensurate with either player’s dominance.

"The painting was a gift, Todd. I'm taking it with me." -Wedding Crashers

by notsellingjeans on Jun 30, 2008 3:00 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think Duke is probably in that same camp as Ellis and Blanton

Yes, Duke has pitched fantastically this year.

But he’s pitching much better than expected, and than his previous MLB experience would project - and who knows how his health will hold up - and there’s still the conventional bias against pitchers who lack “stuff.”

Harden’s got his own set of confounding variables, but I think he’s really the only major trade value that Beane holds right now on the 40-man roster. (And, again, I don’t think Beane should be out beating down other GMs’ doors to deal him.)

He's a very personable, sweet, nice chimp. He's not going to be aggressive unless he's provoked. @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jun 30, 2008 3:04 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I have to think a few GMs would look at

a 1.91 ERA and say, “You know, we could use that.” Hopefully not, though, because I’d sooner give Duchscherer a 3-4 year extension than trade him. His body seems to quite like starting and he has the kind of stuff that could allow him to be very successful when he’s 34-35. You could roll the dice on worse.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jun 30, 2008 4:36 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

probably maybe on both questions

His health still scares me somewhat, but he’s been way more resilient than I thought he’d be.

He's a very personable, sweet, nice chimp. He's not going to be aggressive unless he's provoked. @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jun 30, 2008 6:14 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don’t understand questioning Justin’s track record, besides innings pitched. 96 IP is his career max in the majors, and he’s at 85 now, so if he’s going to hit a wall in that regard it would seem to be a few starts from now. In regards to innings, he was a starter through the minors and was converted to a reliever in the majors. Hes always wanted to be a starter.

What about his track record says he’s not performing as advertised?

Career ERA – 3.09
Career WHIP – 1.12
BAA – .235

He’s already been an All Star once (and is well on his way to appearance #2)

How many pitchers have been an All Star both as a reliever and a starter?

Although he dominates in a way that doesn’t appear dominating, in the sense of flame throwing ‘Kerry Wood 20 K’s in a game’ style, I’d say hes DOMINATED this year.

Earned runs / starts
4+ ER: 0
3 ER: 1
2 ER: 4
1 ER: 7 --— (including his last 4 starts)
0 ER: 1

This to me is amazing. He’s given up 2 earned runs or less in 12 of his 13 starts. What the … !!!!!!

Note to A’s management: PLEASE don’t trade Duke (and please televise more of his starts in Folsom)

by BillMoresi on Jun 30, 2008 5:31 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

A few things I forgot to add...

Justin is 5-2 when giving up only a single earned run
In his 5 losses, he’s given up a total of 9 ER
-Take away one loss/3 ER, and it’s 4 losses with 6 ER

Wow, I knew it was tough to start for Oakland, but WOW!

Funny stat: In 13 starts, he has zero no decisions (Chacon had 9 STRAIGHT no decisions earlier this season)

by BillMoresi on Jun 30, 2008 5:38 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

thank you

Your article gave me an entirely different opinion on Blanton. Maybe Oakland is just not the right fit for him. Is there someone in Sacramento that could fill his shoes if we were to trade him away for prospects? Billy Beane Has done wonders trading away players like Swisher and Haren and Look who we got in return. Blanton is a good pitcher don’t get me wrong. But maybe he’d be better off in another uniform

by beatNYY on Jul 1, 2008 4:22 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

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