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"Arena Baseball" - The American League's Superiority

After Thursday's games, the AL is a whopping 124-84 over the National League thus far in Interleague Play, with one final weekend to play.  Forty games over .500.  

And the run differential suggests it hasn't been a fluke. Entering Thursday's games, the AL had outscored the NL 1006 to 825.  After the American League took eight of nine from the NL yesterday, the run differential is now 206 runs between the two leagues in their 208 contests.  It would be worse, but on Thursday, with Yankees leading the Pirates 3-1 and surely en route to victory, the game was wiped from the books due to rain.

See? Even Mother Nature feels sorry for the National League.

Not to go all Jayson Stark on you, but...

*  The AL's current winning percentage over the NL is the equivalent of a 97-win season, if the two teams were playing a 162-game schedule against each other.

*  The AL is almost exactly one run better per game than the NL in Interleague contests.  In the average Interleague game, the AL would win 5-4, and they'd win 60% of the time.

Now, the news that the AL is the superior league talent-wise isn't new.

This is a chart of Interleague wins over the last four years, courtesy of ESPN:

 

INTERLEAGUE WINS IN
THE LAST FOUR YEARS
Year AL NL
2008 124 84
2007 137 115
2006 154 98
2005 136 116

What is interesting, however, is that AL superiority was being called into question barely more than a month ago.  David Pinto, who operates the terrific blog baseballmusings.com and also moonlights for The Sporting News, penned this column on May 7 titled, How the Heck is the NL outscoring the AL?  

A Harvard grad and former guru for STATS INC., Pinto had some compelling ideas, as he always does.  In short, he surmised that the NL was outscoring the AL because their hitters were younger, and closer to their primes.  In the above-linked article, he showed graphically that the average age of AL hitters had been gradually rising for years, and that the average NL hitter had been getting "younger" since 2004, pardon the oxymoron.   

The theory was that, especially in an era of less PED proliferation, perhaps the average age of AL hitters had passed the tipping point of optimum effectiveness.  AL teams were giving too many at-bats away to players that were past their primes and thus underperforming, while NL teams (these are merely averages of course, not meant to be blanket assertions) were seemingly being rewarded for embracing the youth movement and giving a greater portion of at-bats to younger players.  

To Pinto's credit, anecdotally, when applied to some individual players and teams, this argument made sense.  Garrett Anderson continues to gobble up at-bats for the Angels - partially because of his large salary and name recognition - despite his ineffectiveness, even though an arguably better and far cheaper player in Reggie Willits lies in wait behind him.  Here we have a clear-cut example of the player past his peak (Anderson, 35) taking at-bats away from the player entering his peak (Willits, 27).  And of course, there were and still are plenty of hitters over the age of 30 who negatively affected the AL performance-by-age statlines in Pinto's data:  Sexson, Vidro, and Gary Matthews, Jr., to name a few.  

It was a thought-provoking argument:  the NL has more fully embraced the youth movement, and as such, it has better hitters on the cusp of their primes.  

But with the benefit of hindsight, with Interleague play almost fully in the rearview mirror, I would argue instead that, the AL simply has better players across the board, and especially better pitching in particular.  The NL's hitters were looking so good early in the season because their pitchers really were, and are, that bad.    

Just a few years ago, it seemed that occasionally an elder AL pitcher would go to the NL to cement his legacy and hang on for a few more years, where the slightly weaker lineups would help mask his declining velocity and bite on his breaking stuff. Greg Maddux and Pedro Martinez fall into this category, as would Randy Johnson's second stint with the D-Backs.

Somehow, that phenomenon - the very real idea that weaker pitchers can survive in the NL - has spread to the point that virtually every NL team has at least one starter who is either an AL cast-off, or wouldn't be considered a starter by any AL team.  

Yesterday's A's game was a perfect example.  Rich Harden - the epitome of a dominant AL starter, like Beckett or Halladay, which, frankly, is a class above Peavy/Lincecum/Volquez et al, who've been humbled a bit against AL lineups in Interleague play - simply baffled the Phillies for eight innings, while Philly countered with Adam Eaton.  Yes, that Adam Eaton, the one who was kicked out of Texas after the 2006 season for using a fake starting pitcher ID en route to a 1.57 WHIP for the Rangers. Yet somehow, Adam Eaton and his peach fuzz are still getting in to clubs all over the NL every five days.  

Barry Zito, Cha Seung Baek, Chan Ho Park, Jorge De La Rosa, Doug Davis, arguably even Randy Johnson at this stage in his career - would those guys crack any AL rotation?  And that's just from one division, the NL West.

Wanna find a sleeper for your fantasy team?  Find the former mediocre AL starter who toiled in the AL East, then swapped to the NL.  If you stumbled into Bronson Arroyo or Ted Lilly this way in previous seasons, kudos to you.  

The rift between the talent was cemented in my mind when Kyle Lohse dismissed the AL as "arena baseball" in an interview this past offseason. The implication is that American League baseball is somehow less of a game than NL baseball is - second-rate, less worthy of reverence or attention or credence.  I wouldn't be surprised if he and other NL converts have developed this belief as a coping mechanism for their confidence.  Which, in Lohse's case, probably took a hit after that 7.07 era stink bomb he threw up in his final half-season in the AL in '06.  Dismiss the league, and he can dismiss his previous poor performance there, too.  

As more and more pitchers have undoubtedly begun privately feeling the same sentiments as Lohse, and noticing the same results, NL rotations are increasingly stocked at the back ends with these types of pitchers - guys who simply aren't good enough to survive in the AL.  And the AL rotations only continue to improve, widening the disparity, because each team has learned the painful lesson of...well, of what a pitcher like Kyle Lohse is like in the AL.  

 

My elder brother and I have been split between the Giants and A's since we were seven and five years old, since Lance Blankenship and Pat Sheridan, and our fan rift truly deepened during and after the 1989 World Series.  Now, as grown men and baseball die-hards, he'll tell you that he prefers the Giants and NL baseball because of the greater element of strategy and substitution involved in the game, and the tradition. And I respect our differences.

But I quietly prefer to watch the AL simply because, I firmly believe I am watching better baseball, and better baseball players.  And I think the AL's interleague dominance continues to bear that point out.  

 

 

 

 

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Excellent Post

Since I left Oakland, I lived in San Diego for 4 years and now Atlanta for 4 years. Going to see NL baseball is fun in a “better than staying at home and watching sitcoms” kind of way (and of course Petco and the Ted are much better places to watch baseball than the Net), but my AL-biased mind just cannot agree more with the assessment that the NL is WAY inferior.

With strange blips like St Louis winning the 2006 World Series capable of occurring , any unbiased observer would surely agree that the “real” determination of the best team in baseball in a given year is the winner of the ALCS.

Let’s hope you stick it to your brother with another sweep this weekend.

by itsgemme on Jun 27, 2008 6:01 AM PDT   0 recs

Watching pitchers hit in the NL is a lot like watching the Special Olympics

And while it might be fun to see somebody overcome the odds and succeed, the real Olympics is a better event.

There is nothing exciting or difficult about making a double switch (except, theoretically, you take out another good player for a bad player). “Arena Baseball” is a much more logical evolution of the sport, and the AL’s dominance, I think, is proving that.

Baseball more than any other sport is both prone to change and prone to having change criticized because of its timeless, pastoral nature. It reminds people of all the things that once were and it brings back memories for old folks who wish they could be 12 years old again. It’s that mentality and nothing else that keeps the NL DH-less.

http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/

by thejd44 on Jun 27, 2008 6:43 AM PDT   0 recs

The DH is an abomination and always will be.

Any game where old fat guys, who are basically glorified pinch hitters, get $8M annual contracts, while pitchers are delicate flowers who should never do anything as “dangerous” as pick up a bat or gasp! slide, is clearly inferior to a sport where all players are athletes.

Barry Zito and Doug Davis would make a lot of AL rotations. When was Greg Maddux ever in the American League?

Despite an aesthetically superior game, NL teams are obviously weaker in general than AL teams, and have been for the past four years, as NSJ demonstrates in the article. The DH has nothing to do with this. Rather it’s the ultra-competitiveness of the late 1990’s Yankees, and then everyone else in the AL successfully striving hard to catch up during this decade that moved the AL ahead. If any NL team (Braves, Dodgers, Mets, Cubs, Giants) had been as ambitious as the Yankees were in the 1990’s the NL might be dominant right now.

by WaddellCanseco on Jun 27, 2008 7:35 AM PDT   0 recs

old fat guys

yeah… no old fat guys ever in the NL. no way.

I mean, I just think you’re using the term athlete quite loosely. You really don’t have to be all that athletic to play the easier positions on the field and run the bases.

aesthetically superior game

I think you just said something without saying anything.

oh, and the only reason Zito has cracked an NL rotation is because of the size of his contract.

by rebus on Jun 27, 2008 8:00 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Yeah I'm with you

DH makes the game infinitely more watchable. I’ve been to quite a few Dodger games over the years and watching the pitcher bat is often the time to go get a refill on beer or go to the restroom. It’s a complete waste of time.

by Blez on Jun 27, 2008 9:23 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Really?

I find it the funniest part of any Giants game when Zito comes to the plate.

That said, his pitching rivals his hitting for comedy relief nowadays.

Notes From The Nat has a new home: http://www.natnotes.com

by Ozzz on Jun 27, 2008 10:05 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

basically it's this ..

For “strategy”, watch NL
For skill, watch AL

Chicks dig the skill, er long ball.

by Rickeyfan on Jun 27, 2008 10:19 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Strategy

It’s hilarious that people act like it is some amazing talent for “strategy” that is required to pinch hit for a pitcher in the 6th or 7th inning and then sub another player for one of your hitters who ended the last ending. A 10 year old could do this effectively.

by dolemite on Jun 27, 2008 1:04 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Many do

when playing baseball video games.

This is similar to the observation (I forget who observed it, Simmons?) that many teenagers are better at clock management in football than some NFL coaches, because they have played so much Madden.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jun 27, 2008 1:07 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

LaRussa always used to object

(when he was in the AL, of course) that the idea that NL strategy – involving, you know, double switches and stuff – was some sort of Einsteinian thing the uninitiated couldn’t hope to comprehend, was a load of bull. The double switch just isn’t rocket science, and he pointed to the difficulty of having to manage the DH (have one guy there, rotate guys through it to rest them) and the question of how to handle your pitcher when there isn’t an obvious time to pull him (i.e., when his turn at the plate comes up later in the game) made the DH league the league with tougher strategy choices. I don’t know if he still adheres to that position, but I think it was basically right, or at least not far wrong.

by Faust on Jun 28, 2008 8:59 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

So Cust is an old fat guy now?

Daric Barton: old fat guy?

If you’re paying good money to watch Chad Gaudin drop a bunt, more power to you. I’ll take Frank Thomas cranking powerbombs, thanks.

Notes From The Nat has a new home: http://www.natnotes.com

by Ozzz on Jun 27, 2008 10:08 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

thank you for this

I got really really angry every time i saw a headline questioning AL superiority a few months back – there were a number of them. And they all pointed to this youth movement of hitters in the NL.

I never understood why 90% of these articles didn’t even broach the subject of worse NL pitching. it just didnt make any sense. it was like watching Little Leaguers and saying, wow all these kids are hitting .350! they must be better than American League hitters.

was i missing something? i feel like i must be.

and yes, loved your examples of Lilly, Arroyo. i noticed them as well. Harang too (2005-2007)

by oakinboston on Jun 27, 2008 7:57 AM PDT   0 recs

But hitting is 75% of the game!

Oh, wait, it’s pitching that’s 75% of the game… in which case high NL offensive stats would be even less likely to indicate NL superiority… never mind…

For the record, I think the idea that pitching is 75% of the game is self-evident idiocy. You don’t hear that particular cliche nearly as often as you did 20 years ago, but the idea that pitching is still magically more important than hitting is still very prevalent… Yet, as you point out, the notion that NL offensive stats are up, without the least recognition of the obvious fact that hitting and pitching stats are zero-sum endeavors on the whole, was held out as being some sort of evidence of NL progress vis-a-vis the AL. Statistical competence is progressing a lot more slowly than newfangled statistics themselves are.

by Faust on Jun 28, 2008 9:11 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

One can make the argument

That only the Cubs absolutley deserve to be in the Top 8 (9? 10?) teams in the sport. Teams like the Phillies, Brewers, Cardinals, Marlins and DBacks are not clearly better than the likes of Detroit, Baltimore and Minnesota—let alone the A’s, Yankees and the 4 AL teams that would currently make the playoffs.

And I agree—the key difference is pitching

by madmongoose on Jun 27, 2008 8:54 AM PDT   0 recs

The White Sox would currently make the playoffs

But I don’t think they’re a Top 20 team by the end of this season. Lots of flukey good starts + aging players = bad formula for success.

http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/

by thejd44 on Jun 27, 2008 1:19 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Well, I don't know

Most of the “fluky” good starts are by the young guys, not the aging players.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jun 27, 2008 1:24 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

more bad starts than good starts for their hitters

Tell me, what has Nick Swisher done for you lately? Less than Ryan Sweeney, I’d say (ok, perhaps this is a poorly times post, with Swisher having hit a grand slam yesterday and Sweeney getting injured, but overlooking that…). Jim Thome? Finally starting to get on track before interleague relegated him to the bench. Paul Konerko? Nothing, and now hurt. Quentin’s had a good start, shouldn’t keep that up, but I doubt he’s going to regress all that much. It’s not like his success was completely unexpected. Jermaine Dye is on an, ahem, hot streak as well, but assuming his leg isn’t broken, he’s not a bad hitter himself. They’re in the top half of the league. I’d like to see your list of 20 teams that are better.

"Behind both goals were banners bearing the word 'Calamity' while another carried the warning: 'You will drown in the Bosphorous.'"--Threats made by Turkish soccer fans to the British from a match in 2003. Tribute to their miraculous run in Euro 2008.

RIP Tim Russert, quintessential Buffalonian.

by Cutthemullet on Jun 28, 2008 9:42 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Excellent, thought provoking piece

I am an A’s fan but I hate the DH and prefer National League baseball. I don’t have a problem with the general ineffectiveness of pitchers at the plate. I do have a problem with players in the game who do not participate in both offense and defense. It’s supposed to be our nine against your nine. If you want your big lumbering slugger in the game, you have to take the risk of exposing his liabilities in the field. If you want your dominant pitcher in the game, he has to swing and run and slide just like everyone else. I would be thrilled if the A’s would once again have a roster of 25 baseball players instead of twelve baseball players, a guy who hits, and twelve guys who pitch. Oh, to have a pitcher like Blue Moon Odom again! Adding the DH to the game was a huge step towards the pussification of baseball. If you have any doubts about this, watch an A’s Cactus League game where the A’s don’t even allow their pitchers to swing the bat out of fear they’ll injure themselves. That is a total disgrace!

Root for the Giants? Not even if they're playing al-Qaeda!

by Monday Fan on Jun 27, 2008 9:45 AM PDT   0 recs

So I'm guessing you hate football.

That Ladainian Tomlinson, he NEVER tackles!

Notes From The Nat has a new home: http://www.natnotes.com

by Ozzz on Jun 27, 2008 10:09 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

And those kickers and punters, and special teams players

What happened to the purity of our 11 vs your 11?

by Rickeyfan on Jun 27, 2008 10:15 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I've heard a lot of people say things about rugby before . . .

but never that

It's tough when your kid's favorite ballplayer is David Ortiz

by eastcoasta'sfan on Jun 27, 2008 2:08 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I definitely prefer Rugby to American Football

Non-stop action, two way players…there’s no comparison

by WaddellCanseco on Jun 27, 2008 2:32 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

The game became less interesting

Root for the Giants? Not even if they're playing al-Qaeda!

by Monday Fan on Jun 28, 2008 12:54 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

That's not a very good guess

I like football. I think the game was better when they players played both offense and defense.

Root for the Giants? Not even if they're playing al-Qaeda!

by Monday Fan on Jun 28, 2008 12:52 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

eh, Rivers does throw a lot of interceptions...

I bet he made more tackles when he played at Briscoe High, though.

"Behind both goals were banners bearing the word 'Calamity' while another carried the warning: 'You will drown in the Bosphorous.'"--Threats made by Turkish soccer fans to the British from a match in 2003. Tribute to their miraculous run in Euro 2008.

RIP Tim Russert, quintessential Buffalonian.

by Cutthemullet on Jun 28, 2008 9:44 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Felix Hernandez

Maybe it “shouldn’t” be this way, but given that a star pitcher like Felix Hernandez, after hitting a grand slam earlier (and that was exciting) then injures his foot running the bases and can’t make his next start (the thing he’s best at), trying to keep pitchers away from hitting because they might hurt themselves just seems like good sense.

by el generico on Jun 27, 2008 10:53 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

He didn't injure his foot running the bases...

He injured it covering home plate on a wild pitch.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jun 27, 2008 11:05 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

well, duh

Obviously, pitchers should neither hit nor field nor pitch—after all, look at all those injuries they get while throwing the ball.

Can an aging lemur suffer from dementia? @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jun 27, 2008 11:14 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Although Wang did

So perhaps some of the point remains

by nevermoor on Jun 27, 2008 11:46 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

?

he partially tore a tendon and sprained his right foot.

by nevermoor on Jun 27, 2008 4:56 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Steinbrenner's rant afterwards...

was laughable. Made his father proud, surely. That’s what WadCan is taking a shot at with his comment, I’m guessing.

"Behind both goals were banners bearing the word 'Calamity' while another carried the warning: 'You will drown in the Bosphorous.'"--Threats made by Turkish soccer fans to the British from a match in 2003. Tribute to their miraculous run in Euro 2008.

RIP Tim Russert, quintessential Buffalonian.

by Cutthemullet on Jun 28, 2008 9:48 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

That's not what happened

But even if that did happen that way, I’d say maybe if he played baseball instead of just pitching, he’d have been in game shape and you wouldn’t have to worry excessively about him participating in common baseball activities.

Root for the Giants? Not even if they're playing al-Qaeda!

by Monday Fan on Jun 28, 2008 1:21 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Yes, but to change it

You have to start in high school—even there Pitchers are starting to specialize and don’t play when they don’t pitch. By college it’s a DH world. And in the minors.

by madmongoose on Jun 27, 2008 11:32 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

and don't forget, in college, catchers don't run the bases.

They hit, get to 1st, and get pinch run for.

Notes From The Nat has a new home: http://www.natnotes.com

by Ozzz on Jun 27, 2008 12:18 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

average players getting "younger"

may be a paradox, but it isn’t an oxymoron.

(If you had said they were growing younger, then you might have a case.)

"Dispatch knuckleheadedness with Bond-like aplomb." –74mk

by iglew on Jun 27, 2008 9:46 AM PDT   0 recs

what’s up with A’s fans and your inferiority complex (take that with a grain of salt because I’m a Giants fan ok?). constantly trying to figure out new ways to convince yourself you have the best run organization in MLB (although i think you have to be biting your tongue seeing the Rays holding that torch right now). and when that salt loses its savor you move on to,”Well, look! our league is better!!!1” Which league is better? is it really worth arguing about…or writing a dissertation about?

The rosters are built differently because of the DH rule, basically meaning every AL team should have 1 more starter quality bat in their lineup at all times/1st bat off the bench during an interleague game in a NL park. It’s not obvious on the surface, but playing with or without the DH completely changes the way an organization builds their rosters 1-25, and your analytical minds should realize that. statistics dont carry the day here because your trying to compare apples and oranges. Does the AL score more runs? ok. Does that make it a better league? no, because one doesn’t prove the other, and the 2 leagues cant be compared better/worse to one another based on stats because the AL and the NL play a different game of baseball, period.

but overall anyones preference is obviously just personal taste.  personally, I cant get behind the idea of a DH, because when i grew up playing baseball down at the park, everyone who played would hit and play in the field, its just the purist form of baseball. if you're a DH, you're not a baseball player, you're a hitter. The thing with being frustrated with watching a pitcher hit has merit, but to me the solution is, "learn to hit, Meat!", it's ridiculous that these athletes have the hardest time even laying down bunts, but thats no reason to change the rules of greatest game ever invented.
Your Zito argument is bunk to me because of our ability to say in hindsight, "look how much he suxxxxx!" If he didn't totally completely forget how to pitch (and dont respond about his declining peripherals before he left oakland, i know this already) since coming to S.F, he shoulda still been a solid #3 in either league for a few more years--def not worth his contract obviously though, but still a decent enough pitcher. anyways, i dont know why i'm writing this, frustration over my own sucky team probably.

Mostly I just hate the snarky attitude many of the posts on here have. I read them here because as a fan base you all seem to keep up on most prospects in baseball as a whole more than others, and thats what I’m intersted in to a degree, and you have a large community of posters which is cool, but the attitude just kills me lol, it’s so condescending all the time!

my conclusion= comparing the leagues is ridiculous, at least statistically, it’s almost (and i use this term loosely) like looking at the stats of a WR in the Arena football league and then the stats of a WR in the NFL, and then basing your decision of who is better on their stats; doesn’t work, its a different game.

my points are neither poignant or precise, but thats what these fan blogs are all about so i'm gonna follow through and post this.

I wanted to adopt, but all the good looking babies were taken

by joeytothelimit on Jun 27, 2008 9:48 AM PDT   0 recs

this autoformat crap is ridic

I wanted to adopt, but all the good looking babies were taken

by joeytothelimit on Jun 27, 2008 9:48 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

If this was unintentionally cutoff

SROTM (self reply of the month)

by Rickeyfan on Jun 27, 2008 10:04 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

ridic [sic]

"Behind both goals were banners bearing the word 'Calamity' while another carried the warning: 'You will drown in the Bosphorous.'"--Threats made by Turkish soccer fans to the British from a match in 2003. Tribute to their miraculous run in Euro 2008.

RIP Tim Russert, quintessential Buffalonian.

by Cutthemullet on Jun 28, 2008 9:52 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Okay, try this instead

Ignore the cherry picking and focus on the part where the American Leauge has plain and simply been kicking the National League’s butt in head-to-head competition. How’s that for a stat-free taste of American League superiority?

Root for the Giants? Not even if they're playing al-Qaeda!

by Monday Fan on Jun 27, 2008 10:02 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

well that was kind of my point i think. The DH makes it so that when an AL team plays an NL team, the AL should win most times because of the roster. think about it, tonight when we play you guys, we have to have a DH, but we dont have a guy on our roster to fill that role adequately? we dont sign guys like Sweeney, Thomas, or Cust for that matter, because we need guys who can play in the field. And then, when you play us at AT&T, your DH becomes your best PH during any late inning pivotal moment. We still have our crappy 4th OF as our PH. the inequality in run scoring is based on having DH type players on your roster. thats the point, the construction is different because of the rule, therefore the AL should win statistically. the over arching point is though is that the difference in runs scored, or who wins in interleague play is not relevant in determing the better league IMO, they play totally different games of baseball

I wanted to adopt, but all the good looking babies were taken

by joeytothelimit on Jun 27, 2008 10:16 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Ok then, compare NL-AL when NL hosts

I suspect the AL still wins, despite the lack of DH

by MobiusKlein on Jun 27, 2008 10:19 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

He's trying to say even when we play in an NL park, our DH becomes our best pinch-hitter, and still provides an advantage.

And they still have a 4th OF as their PH, not a person on the roster hired to HIT.

witty remark

by dtownmbrown on Jun 27, 2008 11:36 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

True but

NL-park .. DH-PH vs 4OF-PH = 1 AB
AL-park .. DH-PH vs 4OF-PH = 3-5 AB

The effect is not zero in an NL park, but definitely minimized.

by Rickeyfan on Jun 27, 2008 11:47 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Yeah I think if you look at it overall,

the DH makes a minimal difference, but not one that warrants the AL vs. NL record, or run differentials. There is a huge difference there.

witty remark

by dtownmbrown on Jun 27, 2008 11:51 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

good, good, see I like this, its a step in the right direction, I cant quite wrap my head around the absolute best way to determine the effects of the DH considering the extra starter quality bat in the lineup at AL hosted games, the extra pinchhitting quality bat for the AL team in the NL hosted games etc, I do think it takes more than #of AB’s in each scenerio to comprehensibly and fully explain it, for example the “quality” of the bat in question would change the weight of each AB IMO, also the fact that the pinch-hitting DH is likely facing somewhat inferior bullpen arms (outside of the event of facing someones quality closer), or a tired starter, but this is definitely a start. there are a ton of factors in play, and I think figuring them all out, or at least attempting to is fascinating

I wanted to adopt, but all the good looking babies were taken

by joeytothelimit on Jun 27, 2008 12:11 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

quality of the bat

ash vs. maple?

j/k, I like your posts in this thread, good argument

"Behind both goals were banners bearing the word 'Calamity' while another carried the warning: 'You will drown in the Bosphorous.'"--Threats made by Turkish soccer fans to the British from a match in 2003. Tribute to their miraculous run in Euro 2008.

RIP Tim Russert, quintessential Buffalonian.

by Cutthemullet on Jun 28, 2008 9:58 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

If it's so advantageous to have a kick azz DH player

the NL should benefit from it all the time then.
Nothing stops them from hiring one. Well, unless you need roster flexibility. Hmm.

by MobiusKlein on Jun 27, 2008 10:29 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

i mean

i may agree with you about the NL rules dictating how their roster is structured. at the very least, there is no question that the DH causes AL teams to need better hitting and pitching to compete. i think that is the whole point.
but to call it different games? we are still playing baseball here, and thus we are allowed to compare.
finally, i think most of the motivation for this post comes from all the media coverage about how, this year, the NL was supposed to be better. clearly, they are wrong.

by oakinboston on Jun 27, 2008 10:27 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Different games?

Different ‘styles’ maybe. Last I checked, the relevant dimensions were still 90’ and 60’6" in either league. The roster construction accounting for slightly different rules is not as major as the arena-NFL difference. It’s more akin to a NBA Western conference team constructing a roster that’s slightly different than an Eastern conference team because the schedule is weighted towards inter-conference matches, so it behooves them to best equip themselves towards beating who they play most. That said, for the last decade or so, the AL has been involved in an arms (and bats) race forcing teams to evolve to stay competitive. Basically athletic Darwinism. And the stats bear this out (and significantly so I think) that in a predator heavy environment, the AL survivors are much more ‘fit’ overall than players in a league with less ‘predators’.

by Rickeyfan on Jun 27, 2008 10:34 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

The NBA comparison doesn’t work either though because the eastern and western confrences both play by the exact same rules. I think its easy to devalue the effect the DH has had on the AL vs. NL because in general discussion, with general fans, it’s easy to dismiss the significance because you think, “it’s only one batter”. I’m just thinking that it’s effects are a lot bigger than we think, thats all

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by joeytothelimit on Jun 27, 2008 10:39 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

The NBA comparison works for differences in roster makeups. And I am granting that the DH is a big factor, which is why I say that their stats should be pulled out to make a fairer comparison. That said, as big of a factor the DH is, when playing head-to-head, both teams play by the same rules. If you want to claim the 4th crappy outfielder disadvantage, one could easily counter with
-The DH isn’t used to sitting on the bench most of the game, and thus is less accustomed to a situational at-bat than a NL PH.
-The AL bullpens should be worse than the NL bullpens because they usually don’t get summoned as early because of the pinch-hitter subbing for the starter. (No stats posted on this, but my hunch thinks AL bullpens are likely just as effective, if not moreso than NL bullpens).

by Rickeyfan on Jun 27, 2008 10:50 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Your last point is frankly incorrect

Bullpens get more overworked in the NL because they have to be used more. Getting summoned later in a game is a good thing, not a bad thing.

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by PaulThomas on Jun 27, 2008 11:07 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

well you could counter with those, but they are weaker arguments because
1) every hitter in both leagues deals with situational at bats, its a part of every game. each at-bat has is a seperate event, carrying its own level of importance to the Win. any basbeall player is thrown into important situational at-bats every day regardless of the league, and I wouldn’t cut a guy any slack because he wasn’t accustomed to having an important at-bat, whenever it occurs.
2) The AL bullpens shouldn’t be worse per-se, but 1 arm smaller maybe? and with less specialists maybe due to the fewer PH that come to the plate in AL games, but you’d still have a few specialists. In general though you still need your effective 8th and 9th inning guys, a lefty, a mop-up long reliever, and at least 1 or 2 middle releivers, and they all have to shut down the opposing lineup, and in fact should need to be better maybe because the AL lineups are stacked 1-9, and regardless your bullpen cant give up many runs and be successful. so I think I’m just saying the bullpens for either league are equally important

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by joeytothelimit on Jun 27, 2008 11:07 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

NBA

There’s more talent in the Western Conference. Denver might be the best team on paper in the league, and they barely made the playoffs. But it’s not like one conference has cornered any one position or role…dominant centers/power forwards, shooters, etc.

"Behind both goals were banners bearing the word 'Calamity' while another carried the warning: 'You will drown in the Bosphorous.'"--Threats made by Turkish soccer fans to the British from a match in 2003. Tribute to their miraculous run in Euro 2008.

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by Cutthemullet on Jun 28, 2008 10:10 AM PDT