"Arena Baseball" - The American League's Superiority
After Thursday's games, the AL is a whopping 124-84 over the National League thus far in Interleague Play, with one final weekend to play. Forty games over .500.
And the run differential suggests it hasn't been a fluke. Entering Thursday's games, the AL had outscored the NL 1006 to 825. After the American League took eight of nine from the NL yesterday, the run differential is now 206 runs between the two leagues in their 208 contests. It would be worse, but on Thursday, with Yankees leading the Pirates 3-1 and surely en route to victory, the game was wiped from the books due to rain.
See? Even Mother Nature feels sorry for the National League.
Not to go all Jayson Stark on you, but...
* The AL's current winning percentage over the NL is the equivalent of a 97-win season, if the two teams were playing a 162-game schedule against each other.
* The AL is almost exactly one run better per game than the NL in Interleague contests. In the average Interleague game, the AL would win 5-4, and they'd win 60% of the time.
Now, the news that the AL is the superior league talent-wise isn't new.
This is a chart of Interleague wins over the last four years, courtesy of ESPN:
THE LAST FOUR YEARS
Year
AL
NL
2008
124
84
2007
137
115
2006
154
98
2005
136
116
What is interesting, however, is that AL superiority was being called into question barely more than a month ago. David Pinto, who operates the terrific blog baseballmusings.com and also moonlights for The Sporting News, penned this column on May 7 titled, How the Heck is the NL outscoring the AL?
A Harvard grad and former guru for STATS INC., Pinto had some compelling ideas, as he always does. In short, he surmised that the NL was outscoring the AL because their hitters were younger, and closer to their primes. In the above-linked article, he showed graphically that the average age of AL hitters had been gradually rising for years, and that the average NL hitter had been getting "younger" since 2004, pardon the oxymoron.
The theory was that, especially in an era of less PED proliferation, perhaps the average age of AL hitters had passed the tipping point of optimum effectiveness. AL teams were giving too many at-bats away to players that were past their primes and thus underperforming, while NL teams (these are merely averages of course, not meant to be blanket assertions) were seemingly being rewarded for embracing the youth movement and giving a greater portion of at-bats to younger players.
To Pinto's credit, anecdotally, when applied to some individual players and teams, this argument made sense. Garrett Anderson continues to gobble up at-bats for the Angels - partially because of his large salary and name recognition - despite his ineffectiveness, even though an arguably better and far cheaper player in Reggie Willits lies in wait behind him. Here we have a clear-cut example of the player past his peak (Anderson, 35) taking at-bats away from the player entering his peak (Willits, 27). And of course, there were and still are plenty of hitters over the age of 30 who negatively affected the AL performance-by-age statlines in Pinto's data: Sexson, Vidro, and Gary Matthews, Jr., to name a few.
It was a thought-provoking argument: the NL has more fully embraced the youth movement, and as such, it has better hitters on the cusp of their primes.
But with the benefit of hindsight, with Interleague play almost fully in the rearview mirror, I would argue instead that, the AL simply has better players across the board, and especially better pitching in particular. The NL's hitters were looking so good early in the season because their pitchers really were, and are, that bad.
Just a few years ago, it seemed that occasionally an elder AL pitcher would go to the NL to cement his legacy and hang on for a few more years, where the slightly weaker lineups would help mask his declining velocity and bite on his breaking stuff. Greg Maddux and Pedro Martinez fall into this category, as would Randy Johnson's second stint with the D-Backs.
Somehow, that phenomenon - the very real idea that weaker pitchers can survive in the NL - has spread to the point that virtually every NL team has at least one starter who is either an AL cast-off, or wouldn't be considered a starter by any AL team.
Yesterday's A's game was a perfect example. Rich Harden - the epitome of a dominant AL starter, like Beckett or Halladay, which, frankly, is a class above Peavy/Lincecum/Volquez et al, who've been humbled a bit against AL lineups in Interleague play - simply baffled the Phillies for eight innings, while Philly countered with Adam Eaton. Yes, that Adam Eaton, the one who was kicked out of Texas after the 2006 season for using a fake starting pitcher ID en route to a 1.57 WHIP for the Rangers. Yet somehow, Adam Eaton and his peach fuzz are still getting in to clubs all over the NL every five days.
Barry Zito, Cha Seung Baek, Chan Ho Park, Jorge De La Rosa, Doug Davis, arguably even Randy Johnson at this stage in his career - would those guys crack any AL rotation? And that's just from one division, the NL West.
Wanna find a sleeper for your fantasy team? Find the former mediocre AL starter who toiled in the AL East, then swapped to the NL. If you stumbled into Bronson Arroyo or Ted Lilly this way in previous seasons, kudos to you.
The rift between the talent was cemented in my mind when Kyle Lohse dismissed the AL as "arena baseball" in an interview this past offseason. The implication is that American League baseball is somehow less of a game than NL baseball is - second-rate, less worthy of reverence or attention or credence. I wouldn't be surprised if he and other NL converts have developed this belief as a coping mechanism for their confidence. Which, in Lohse's case, probably took a hit after that 7.07 era stink bomb he threw up in his final half-season in the AL in '06. Dismiss the league, and he can dismiss his previous poor performance there, too.
As more and more pitchers have undoubtedly begun privately feeling the same sentiments as Lohse, and noticing the same results, NL rotations are increasingly stocked at the back ends with these types of pitchers - guys who simply aren't good enough to survive in the AL. And the AL rotations only continue to improve, widening the disparity, because each team has learned the painful lesson of...well, of what a pitcher like Kyle Lohse is like in the AL.
My elder brother and I have been split between the Giants and A's since we were seven and five years old, since Lance Blankenship and Pat Sheridan, and our fan rift truly deepened during and after the 1989 World Series. Now, as grown men and baseball die-hards, he'll tell you that he prefers the Giants and NL baseball because of the greater element of strategy and substitution involved in the game, and the tradition. And I respect our differences.
But I quietly prefer to watch the AL simply because, I firmly believe I am watching better baseball, and better baseball players. And I think the AL's interleague dominance continues to bear that point out.
1 recs |
128 comments
Comments
Excellent Post
Since I left Oakland, I lived in San Diego for 4 years and now Atlanta for 4 years. Going to see NL baseball is fun in a “better than staying at home and watching sitcoms” kind of way (and of course Petco and the Ted are much better places to watch baseball than the Net), but my AL-biased mind just cannot agree more with the assessment that the NL is WAY inferior.
With strange blips like St Louis winning the 2006 World Series capable of occurring , any unbiased observer would surely agree that the “real” determination of the best team in baseball in a given year is the winner of the ALCS.
Let’s hope you stick it to your brother with another sweep this weekend.
by itsgemme on Jun 27, 2008 6:01 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Watching pitchers hit in the NL is a lot like watching the Special Olympics
And while it might be fun to see somebody overcome the odds and succeed, the real Olympics is a better event.
There is nothing exciting or difficult about making a double switch (except, theoretically, you take out another good player for a bad player). “Arena Baseball” is a much more logical evolution of the sport, and the AL’s dominance, I think, is proving that.
Baseball more than any other sport is both prone to change and prone to having change criticized because of its timeless, pastoral nature. It reminds people of all the things that once were and it brings back memories for old folks who wish they could be 12 years old again. It’s that mentality and nothing else that keeps the NL DH-less.
http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/
by thejd44 on Jun 27, 2008 6:43 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
The DH is an abomination and always will be.
Any game where old fat guys, who are basically glorified pinch hitters, get $8M annual contracts, while pitchers are delicate flowers who should never do anything as “dangerous” as pick up a bat or gasp! slide, is clearly inferior to a sport where all players are athletes.
Barry Zito and Doug Davis would make a lot of AL rotations. When was Greg Maddux ever in the American League?
Despite an aesthetically superior game, NL teams are obviously weaker in general than AL teams, and have been for the past four years, as NSJ demonstrates in the article. The DH has nothing to do with this. Rather it’s the ultra-competitiveness of the late 1990’s Yankees, and then everyone else in the AL successfully striving hard to catch up during this decade that moved the AL ahead. If any NL team (Braves, Dodgers, Mets, Cubs, Giants) had been as ambitious as the Yankees were in the 1990’s the NL might be dominant right now.
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 27, 2008 7:35 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
old fat guys
yeah… no old fat guys ever in the NL. no way.
I mean, I just think you’re using the term athlete quite loosely. You really don’t have to be all that athletic to play the easier positions on the field and run the bases.
aesthetically superior game
I think you just said something without saying anything.
oh, and the only reason Zito has cracked an NL rotation is because of the size of his contract.
by rebus on Jun 27, 2008 8:00 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah I'm with you
DH makes the game infinitely more watchable. I’ve been to quite a few Dodger games over the years and watching the pitcher bat is often the time to go get a refill on beer or go to the restroom. It’s a complete waste of time.
by Tyler Bleszinski on Jun 27, 2008 9:23 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
basically it's this ..
For “strategy”, watch NL
For skill, watch AL
Chicks dig the skill, er long ball.
by Rickeyfan on Jun 27, 2008 10:19 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Strategy
It’s hilarious that people act like it is some amazing talent for “strategy” that is required to pinch hit for a pitcher in the 6th or 7th inning and then sub another player for one of your hitters who ended the last ending. A 10 year old could do this effectively.
by dolemite on Jun 27, 2008 1:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Many do
when playing baseball video games.
This is similar to the observation (I forget who observed it, Simmons?) that many teenagers are better at clock management in football than some NFL coaches, because they have played so much Madden.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Jun 27, 2008 1:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
LaRussa always used to object
(when he was in the AL, of course) that the idea that NL strategy – involving, you know, double switches and stuff – was some sort of Einsteinian thing the uninitiated couldn’t hope to comprehend, was a load of bull. The double switch just isn’t rocket science, and he pointed to the difficulty of having to manage the DH (have one guy there, rotate guys through it to rest them) and the question of how to handle your pitcher when there isn’t an obvious time to pull him (i.e., when his turn at the plate comes up later in the game) made the DH league the league with tougher strategy choices. I don’t know if he still adheres to that position, but I think it was basically right, or at least not far wrong.
by Faust on Jun 28, 2008 8:59 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
So Cust is an old fat guy now?
Daric Barton: old fat guy?
If you’re paying good money to watch Chad Gaudin drop a bunt, more power to you. I’ll take Frank Thomas cranking powerbombs, thanks.
Notes From The Nat has a new home: http://www.natnotes.com
by Ozzz on Jun 27, 2008 10:08 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
thank you for this
I got really really angry every time i saw a headline questioning AL superiority a few months back – there were a number of them. And they all pointed to this youth movement of hitters in the NL.
I never understood why 90% of these articles didn’t even broach the subject of worse NL pitching. it just didnt make any sense. it was like watching Little Leaguers and saying, wow all these kids are hitting .350! they must be better than American League hitters.
was i missing something? i feel like i must be.
and yes, loved your examples of Lilly, Arroyo. i noticed them as well. Harang too (2005-2007)
by oakinboston on Jun 27, 2008 7:57 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
This also applies to batters making the AL to NL jump
Kendall, Kotsay, Tejada …
by Rickeyfan on Jun 27, 2008 10:16 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
But hitting is 75% of the game!
Oh, wait, it’s pitching that’s 75% of the game… in which case high NL offensive stats would be even less likely to indicate NL superiority… never mind…
For the record, I think the idea that pitching is 75% of the game is self-evident idiocy. You don’t hear that particular cliche nearly as often as you did 20 years ago, but the idea that pitching is still magically more important than hitting is still very prevalent… Yet, as you point out, the notion that NL offensive stats are up, without the least recognition of the obvious fact that hitting and pitching stats are zero-sum endeavors on the whole, was held out as being some sort of evidence of NL progress vis-a-vis the AL. Statistical competence is progressing a lot more slowly than newfangled statistics themselves are.
by Faust on Jun 28, 2008 9:11 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
One can make the argument
That only the Cubs absolutley deserve to be in the Top 8 (9? 10?) teams in the sport. Teams like the Phillies, Brewers, Cardinals, Marlins and DBacks are not clearly better than the likes of Detroit, Baltimore and Minnesota—let alone the A’s, Yankees and the 4 AL teams that would currently make the playoffs.
And I agree—the key difference is pitching
by madmongoose on Jun 27, 2008 8:54 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
The White Sox would currently make the playoffs
But I don’t think they’re a Top 20 team by the end of this season. Lots of flukey good starts + aging players = bad formula for success.
http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/
by thejd44 on Jun 27, 2008 1:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, I don't know
Most of the “fluky” good starts are by the young guys, not the aging players.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Jun 27, 2008 1:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
more bad starts than good starts for their hitters
Tell me, what has Nick Swisher done for you lately? Less than Ryan Sweeney, I’d say (ok, perhaps this is a poorly times post, with Swisher having hit a grand slam yesterday and Sweeney getting injured, but overlooking that…). Jim Thome? Finally starting to get on track before interleague relegated him to the bench. Paul Konerko? Nothing, and now hurt. Quentin’s had a good start, shouldn’t keep that up, but I doubt he’s going to regress all that much. It’s not like his success was completely unexpected. Jermaine Dye is on an, ahem, hot streak as well, but assuming his leg isn’t broken, he’s not a bad hitter himself. They’re in the top half of the league. I’d like to see your list of 20 teams that are better.
"Behind both goals were banners bearing the word 'Calamity' while another carried the warning: 'You will drown in the Bosphorous.'"--Threats made by Turkish soccer fans to the British from a match in 2003. Tribute to their miraculous run in Euro 2008.
RIP Tim Russert, quintessential Buffalonian.
by Cutthemullet on Jun 28, 2008 9:42 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Excellent, thought provoking piece
I am an A’s fan but I hate the DH and prefer National League baseball. I don’t have a problem with the general ineffectiveness of pitchers at the plate. I do have a problem with players in the game who do not participate in both offense and defense. It’s supposed to be our nine against your nine. If you want your big lumbering slugger in the game, you have to take the risk of exposing his liabilities in the field. If you want your dominant pitcher in the game, he has to swing and run and slide just like everyone else. I would be thrilled if the A’s would once again have a roster of 25 baseball players instead of twelve baseball players, a guy who hits, and twelve guys who pitch. Oh, to have a pitcher like Blue Moon Odom again! Adding the DH to the game was a huge step towards the pussification of baseball. If you have any doubts about this, watch an A’s Cactus League game where the A’s don’t even allow their pitchers to swing the bat out of fear they’ll injure themselves. That is a total disgrace!
Root for the Giants? Not even if they're playing al-Qaeda!
by Monday Fan on Jun 27, 2008 9:45 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
So I'm guessing you hate football.
That Ladainian Tomlinson, he NEVER tackles!
Notes From The Nat has a new home: http://www.natnotes.com
by Ozzz on Jun 27, 2008 10:09 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
And those kickers and punters, and special teams players
What happened to the purity of our 11 vs your 11?
by Rickeyfan on Jun 27, 2008 10:15 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's why inquiring minds prefer Rugby
by nevermoor on Jun 27, 2008 10:24 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've heard a lot of people say things about rugby before . . .
but never that
It's tough when your kid's favorite ballplayer is David Ortiz
by eastcoasta'sfan on Jun 27, 2008 2:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I definitely prefer Rugby to American Football
Non-stop action, two way players…there’s no comparison
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 27, 2008 2:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The game became less interesting
Root for the Giants? Not even if they're playing al-Qaeda!
by Monday Fan on Jun 28, 2008 12:54 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's not a very good guess
I like football. I think the game was better when they players played both offense and defense.
Root for the Giants? Not even if they're playing al-Qaeda!
by Monday Fan on Jun 28, 2008 12:52 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
eh, Rivers does throw a lot of interceptions...
I bet he made more tackles when he played at Briscoe High, though.
"Behind both goals were banners bearing the word 'Calamity' while another carried the warning: 'You will drown in the Bosphorous.'"--Threats made by Turkish soccer fans to the British from a match in 2003. Tribute to their miraculous run in Euro 2008.
RIP Tim Russert, quintessential Buffalonian.
by Cutthemullet on Jun 28, 2008 9:44 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Felix Hernandez
Maybe it “shouldn’t” be this way, but given that a star pitcher like Felix Hernandez, after hitting a grand slam earlier (and that was exciting) then injures his foot running the bases and can’t make his next start (the thing he’s best at), trying to keep pitchers away from hitting because they might hurt themselves just seems like good sense.
by el generico on Jun 27, 2008 10:53 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He didn't injure his foot running the bases...
He injured it covering home plate on a wild pitch.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Jun 27, 2008 11:05 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
well, duh
Obviously, pitchers should neither hit nor field nor pitch—after all, look at all those injuries they get while throwing the ball.
Can an aging lemur suffer from dementia? @('.')@
by monkeyball on Jun 27, 2008 11:14 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Although Wang did
So perhaps some of the point remains
by nevermoor on Jun 27, 2008 11:46 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Poor delicate flower. I hope Hank Steinbrenner kissed his boo-boo
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 27, 2008 2:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
?
he partially tore a tendon and sprained his right foot.
by nevermoor on Jun 27, 2008 4:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Steinbrenner's rant afterwards...
was laughable. Made his father proud, surely. That’s what WadCan is taking a shot at with his comment, I’m guessing.
"Behind both goals were banners bearing the word 'Calamity' while another carried the warning: 'You will drown in the Bosphorous.'"--Threats made by Turkish soccer fans to the British from a match in 2003. Tribute to their miraculous run in Euro 2008.
RIP Tim Russert, quintessential Buffalonian.
by Cutthemullet on Jun 28, 2008 9:48 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's not what happened
But even if that did happen that way, I’d say maybe if he played baseball instead of just pitching, he’d have been in game shape and you wouldn’t have to worry excessively about him participating in common baseball activities.
Root for the Giants? Not even if they're playing al-Qaeda!
by Monday Fan on Jun 28, 2008 1:21 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, but to change it
You have to start in high school—even there Pitchers are starting to specialize and don’t play when they don’t pitch. By college it’s a DH world. And in the minors.
by madmongoose on Jun 27, 2008 11:32 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
and don't forget, in college, catchers don't run the bases.
They hit, get to 1st, and get pinch run for.
Notes From The Nat has a new home: http://www.natnotes.com
by Ozzz on Jun 27, 2008 12:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
average players getting "younger"
may be a paradox, but it isn’t an oxymoron.
(If you had said they were growing younger, then you might have a case.)
"Dispatch knuckleheadedness with Bond-like aplomb." –74mk
by iglew on Jun 27, 2008 9:46 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
what’s up with A’s fans and your inferiority complex (take that with a grain of salt because I’m a Giants fan ok?). constantly trying to figure out new ways to convince yourself you have the best run organization in MLB (although i think you have to be biting your tongue seeing the Rays holding that torch right now). and when that salt loses its savor you move on to,”Well, look! our league is better!!!1” Which league is better? is it really worth arguing about…or writing a dissertation about?
The rosters are built differently because of the DH rule, basically meaning every AL team should have 1 more starter quality bat in their lineup at all times/1st bat off the bench during an interleague game in a NL park. It’s not obvious on the surface, but playing with or without the DH completely changes the way an organization builds their rosters 1-25, and your analytical minds should realize that. statistics dont carry the day here because your trying to compare apples and oranges. Does the AL score more runs? ok. Does that make it a better league? no, because one doesn’t prove the other, and the 2 leagues cant be compared better/worse to one another based on stats because the AL and the NL play a different game of baseball, period.
but overall anyones preference is obviously just personal taste. personally, I cant get behind the idea of a DH, because when i grew up playing baseball down at the park, everyone who played would hit and play in the field, its just the purist form of baseball. if you're a DH, you're not a baseball player, you're a hitter. The thing with being frustrated with watching a pitcher hit has merit, but to me the solution is, "learn to hit, Meat!", it's ridiculous that these athletes have the hardest time even laying down bunts, but thats no reason to change the rules of greatest game ever invented.
Your Zito argument is bunk to me because of our ability to say in hindsight, "look how much he suxxxxx!" If he didn't totally completely forget how to pitch (and dont respond about his declining peripherals before he left oakland, i know this already) since coming to S.F, he shoulda still been a solid #3 in either league for a few more years--def not worth his contract obviously though, but still a decent enough pitcher. anyways, i dont know why i'm writing this, frustration over my own sucky team probably.
Mostly I just hate the snarky attitude many of the posts on here have. I read them here because as a fan base you all seem to keep up on most prospects in baseball as a whole more than others, and thats what I’m intersted in to a degree, and you have a large community of posters which is cool, but the attitude just kills me lol, it’s so condescending all the time!
my conclusion= comparing the leagues is ridiculous, at least statistically, it’s almost (and i use this term loosely) like looking at the stats of a WR in the Arena football league and then the stats of a WR in the NFL, and then basing your decision of who is better on their stats; doesn’t work, its a different game.
my points are neither poignant or precise, but thats what these fan blogs are all about so i'm gonna follow through and post this.
I wanted to adopt, but all the good looking babies were taken
by joeytothelimit on Jun 27, 2008 9:48 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
this autoformat crap is ridic
I wanted to adopt, but all the good looking babies were taken
by joeytothelimit on Jun 27, 2008 9:48 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If this was unintentionally cutoff
SROTM (self reply of the month)
by Rickeyfan on Jun 27, 2008 10:04 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
ridic [sic]
"Behind both goals were banners bearing the word 'Calamity' while another carried the warning: 'You will drown in the Bosphorous.'"--Threats made by Turkish soccer fans to the British from a match in 2003. Tribute to their miraculous run in Euro 2008.
RIP Tim Russert, quintessential Buffalonian.
by Cutthemullet on Jun 28, 2008 9:52 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Okay, try this instead
Ignore the cherry picking and focus on the part where the American Leauge has plain and simply been kicking the National League’s butt in head-to-head competition. How’s that for a stat-free taste of American League superiority?
Root for the Giants? Not even if they're playing al-Qaeda!
by Monday Fan on Jun 27, 2008 10:02 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
well that was kind of my point i think. The DH makes it so that when an AL team plays an NL team, the AL should win most times because of the roster. think about it, tonight when we play you guys, we have to have a DH, but we dont have a guy on our roster to fill that role adequately? we dont sign guys like Sweeney, Thomas, or Cust for that matter, because we need guys who can play in the field. And then, when you play us at AT&T, your DH becomes your best PH during any late inning pivotal moment. We still have our crappy 4th OF as our PH. the inequality in run scoring is based on having DH type players on your roster. thats the point, the construction is different because of the rule, therefore the AL should win statistically. the over arching point is though is that the difference in runs scored, or who wins in interleague play is not relevant in determing the better league IMO, they play totally different games of baseball
I wanted to adopt, but all the good looking babies were taken
by joeytothelimit on Jun 27, 2008 10:16 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ok then, compare NL-AL when NL hosts
I suspect the AL still wins, despite the lack of DH
by MobiusKlein on Jun 27, 2008 10:19 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's trying to say even when we play in an NL park, our DH becomes our best pinch-hitter, and still provides an advantage.
And they still have a 4th OF as their PH, not a person on the roster hired to HIT.
witty remark
by dtownmbrown on Jun 27, 2008 11:36 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
True but
NL-park .. DH-PH vs 4OF-PH = 1 AB
AL-park .. DH-PH vs 4OF-PH = 3-5 AB
The effect is not zero in an NL park, but definitely minimized.
by Rickeyfan on Jun 27, 2008 11:47 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah I think if you look at it overall,
the DH makes a minimal difference, but not one that warrants the AL vs. NL record, or run differentials. There is a huge difference there.
witty remark
by dtownmbrown on Jun 27, 2008 11:51 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
good, good, see I like this, its a step in the right direction, I cant quite wrap my head around the absolute best way to determine the effects of the DH considering the extra starter quality bat in the lineup at AL hosted games, the extra pinchhitting quality bat for the AL team in the NL hosted games etc, I do think it takes more than #of AB’s in each scenerio to comprehensibly and fully explain it, for example the “quality” of the bat in question would change the weight of each AB IMO, also the fact that the pinch-hitting DH is likely facing somewhat inferior bullpen arms (outside of the event of facing someones quality closer), or a tired starter, but this is definitely a start. there are a ton of factors in play, and I think figuring them all out, or at least attempting to is fascinating
I wanted to adopt, but all the good looking babies were taken
by joeytothelimit on Jun 27, 2008 12:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
quality of the bat
ash vs. maple?
j/k, I like your posts in this thread, good argument
"Behind both goals were banners bearing the word 'Calamity' while another carried the warning: 'You will drown in the Bosphorous.'"--Threats made by Turkish soccer fans to the British from a match in 2003. Tribute to their miraculous run in Euro 2008.
RIP Tim Russert, quintessential Buffalonian.
by Cutthemullet on Jun 28, 2008 9:58 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If it's so advantageous to have a kick azz DH player
the NL should benefit from it all the time then.
Nothing stops them from hiring one. Well, unless you need roster flexibility. Hmm.
by MobiusKlein on Jun 27, 2008 10:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
i mean
i may agree with you about the NL rules dictating how their roster is structured. at the very least, there is no question that the DH causes AL teams to need better hitting and pitching to compete. i think that is the whole point.
but to call it different games? we are still playing baseball here, and thus we are allowed to compare.
finally, i think most of the motivation for this post comes from all the media coverage about how, this year, the NL was supposed to be better. clearly, they are wrong.
by oakinboston on Jun 27, 2008 10:27 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Different games?
Different ‘styles’ maybe. Last I checked, the relevant dimensions were still 90’ and 60’6" in either league. The roster construction accounting for slightly different rules is not as major as the arena-NFL difference. It’s more akin to a NBA Western conference team constructing a roster that’s slightly different than an Eastern conference team because the schedule is weighted towards inter-conference matches, so it behooves them to best equip themselves towards beating who they play most. That said, for the last decade or so, the AL has been involved in an arms (and bats) race forcing teams to evolve to stay competitive. Basically athletic Darwinism. And the stats bear this out (and significantly so I think) that in a predator heavy environment, the AL survivors are much more ‘fit’ overall than players in a league with less ‘predators’.
by Rickeyfan on Jun 27, 2008 10:34 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The NBA comparison doesn’t work either though because the eastern and western confrences both play by the exact same rules. I think its easy to devalue the effect the DH has had on the AL vs. NL because in general discussion, with general fans, it’s easy to dismiss the significance because you think, “it’s only one batter”. I’m just thinking that it’s effects are a lot bigger than we think, thats all
I wanted to adopt, but all the good looking babies were taken
by joeytothelimit on Jun 27, 2008 10:39 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The NBA comparison works for differences in roster makeups. And I am granting that the DH is a big factor, which is why I say that their stats should be pulled out to make a fairer comparison. That said, as big of a factor the DH is, when playing head-to-head, both teams play by the same rules. If you want to claim the 4th crappy outfielder disadvantage, one could easily counter with
-The DH isn’t used to sitting on the bench most of the game, and thus is less accustomed to a situational at-bat than a NL PH.
-The AL bullpens should be worse than the NL bullpens because they usually don’t get summoned as early because of the pinch-hitter subbing for the starter. (No stats posted on this, but my hunch thinks AL bullpens are likely just as effective, if not moreso than NL bullpens).
by Rickeyfan on Jun 27, 2008 10:50 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Your last point is frankly incorrect
Bullpens get more overworked in the NL because they have to be used more. Getting summoned later in a game is a good thing, not a bad thing.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Jun 27, 2008 11:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
well you could counter with those, but they are weaker arguments because
1) every hitter in both leagues deals with situational at bats, its a part of every game. each at-bat has is a seperate event, carrying its own level of importance to the Win. any basbeall player is thrown into important situational at-bats every day regardless of the league, and I wouldn’t cut a guy any slack because he wasn’t accustomed to having an important at-bat, whenever it occurs.
2) The AL bullpens shouldn’t be worse per-se, but 1 arm smaller maybe? and with less specialists maybe due to the fewer PH that come to the plate in AL games, but you’d still have a few specialists. In general though you still need your effective 8th and 9th inning guys, a lefty, a mop-up long reliever, and at least 1 or 2 middle releivers, and they all have to shut down the opposing lineup, and in fact should need to be better maybe because the AL lineups are stacked 1-9, and regardless your bullpen cant give up many runs and be successful. so I think I’m just saying the bullpens for either league are equally important
I wanted to adopt, but all the good looking babies were taken
by joeytothelimit on Jun 27, 2008 11:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
NBA
There’s more talent in the Western Conference. Denver might be the best team on paper in the league, and they barely made the playoffs. But it’s not like one conference has cornered any one position or role…dominant centers/power forwards, shooters, etc.
"Behind both goals were banners bearing the word 'Calamity' while another carried the warning: 'You will drown in the Bosphorous.'"--Threats made by Turkish soccer fans to the British from a match in 2003. Tribute to their miraculous run in Euro 2008.
RIP Tim Russert, quintessential Buffalonian.
by Cutthemullet on Jun 28, 2008 10:10 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
and now the roles have reversed
I was watching SNY (the Mets’ station) yesterday after game one of the SS (Subway Series…abbreviation is apropos for the Evil Empire), and the hosts were talking about the possibility of the Yankees acquiring Brian Fuentes…they seemed to think that the team would stand pat in deference to the youth movement. This may or may not be true…we’ll see over the next 30 days…but the day has arrived where the Yankees are evolving to keep up with Tampa Bay. Good luck with that, NYY. Posada, Abreu, Giambi soon to be extinct…
"Behind both goals were banners bearing the word 'Calamity' while another carried the warning: 'You will drown in the Bosphorous.'"--Threats made by Turkish soccer fans to the British from a match in 2003. Tribute to their miraculous run in Euro 2008.
RIP Tim Russert, quintessential Buffalonian.
by Cutthemullet on Jun 28, 2008 10:06 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Please explain
If you have concluded that AL teams constructed with a DH have an advantage over NL teams, why wouldn’t an NL team construct its roster with a putative DH so it could utilize this advantage against its NL counterparts?
Root for the Giants? Not even if they're playing al-Qaeda!
by Monday Fan on Jun 28, 2008 1:08 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
basically because it would boil down to a wasted 25-man roster spot that is more needed for the guys who can also play defense or pitch out of the bullpen I would think. and then also it wouldn’t be very cost effective to pay a guy 6-8 million, or whatever amount it was just to PH most days. Ya, There’s always the scrap heap cast-offs who you could pay league minimum , but those usually aren’t game changing hitters, and that’s also not a role many good hitters would settle for, one AB a game? most would pass on that. Mark Sweeney anyone?
I wanted to adopt, but all the good looking babies were taken
by joeytothelimit on Jun 28, 2008 10:47 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
This doesn't make sense
If that roster position gives you an advantage, why is it a waste? It wouldn’t necessarily cost $8 million but if it did, why wouldn’t it be worth the cost for something that gives you an advantage over the oppostion? I can see your point about the difficulty in convincing a legitimate hitter to accept such a limited role but it’s one I’m sure Jack Cust would have accepted in the past few years. Not every team in the AL has a DH with All-Star ability. The only thing stopping NL teams from building an AL-type roster is their own unwillingness. If it really is an advantage to have such a roster, as you claim, why not try it?
Root for the Giants? Not even if they're playing al-Qaeda!
by Monday Fan on Jun 29, 2008 2:05 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not really sure if I should respond too much to this
I really think your post speaks for itself (but I may be overly snarky right now).
The one thing I would mention though is that any argument here about Zito can not be called bunk because of “hindsight”. If you wanted to go back to the offseason diaries and comments about him possibly leaving, and then officially leaving, I think they would show 70-80% of the people not upset that he was leaving. And, from those who were upset, it was more because of his history here, not because they thought he was a fantastic pitcher still and would be an ace for years to come.
"Camelot sure fell apart, didn't it?"-Steve McCatty
by 5Aces on Jun 27, 2008 10:08 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hell, some of us were positively giddy.
“Seriously? We’re getting two draft picks for him? Awesome!”
Notes From The Nat has a new home: http://www.natnotes.com
by Ozzz on Jun 27, 2008 10:11 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
the Zito point got cut off mostly. What i was saying is that in hidnsight its easy to say Zito is a horrible pitcher, right now. but when the Giants signed him, he should have still been like a league average #3 at least, but his falloff has been ridiculous! and you can say, ya, his peripherals were declining his last 3 yrs here in OAK, and you’re right, but the extreme fallof so quickly of Zito could not have been forecasted. I mean he doesn’t deserve to be in anyones rotation right now
I wanted to adopt, but all the good looking babies were taken
by joeytothelimit on Jun 27, 2008 10:25 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He'd been declining for more than 3 years.
by mikev on Jun 27, 2008 10:59 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
ya, thats fine, I know he’s been declining, the point is the drastic Falloff so quickly, he’s so bad that when he acually pitches well, like against the Indians the other day, I feel like we won the lottery.
I wanted to adopt, but all the good looking babies were taken
by joeytothelimit on Jun 27, 2008 11:10 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah
i did a double take then rewound the DVR when I saw:
Zito: 0BB
by rebus on Jun 27, 2008 11:16 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
did you see him getting pissy when Boch came in to relieve him? It made me laugh. You know Boch was just avoiding his inevitable implosion, he avoided handing Zito another league leading loss by taking him out before the winning run got on base, and got him a win to boot.
I wanted to adopt, but all the good looking babies were taken
by joeytothelimit on Jun 27, 2008 11:19 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
no, I just saw the ticker. heh, if it were my decison, he’d be starting opposite Dontrelle Willis right now. I bet he’d be really ticked off at that move.
by rebus on Jun 27, 2008 11:24 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
hopefully his last start wasn’t an aberation and he can be more effective the rest of the way. He really just needs to evolve and expand his repetoire. easier said than done i know, but his velocity is coming back, so he needs to learn some things from Woody Williams, Moyer, and Wells, and just find a way to stay competitive
I wanted to adopt, but all the good looking babies were taken
by joeytothelimit on Jun 27, 2008 11:34 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
meant velocity "isn't" coming back
I wanted to adopt, but all the good looking babies were taken
by joeytothelimit on Jun 27, 2008 11:35 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
i don’t see any reason he can’t touch 90mph on the gun again if he fixes his mechanics. the differences between his 2003 and 2008 delivery are astounding.
by rebus on Jun 27, 2008 11:39 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’d like to think that, I mean the guy has had zero arm troubles or injuries that would lead to obvious deficiencies velocity wise. I know he was maybe overused over the last 6 years, but if its mechanics, I just wish he had the right people around him to fix it, Righetti is a douche though so I dont expect him to be able to do that
I wanted to adopt, but all the good looking babies were taken
by joeytothelimit on Jun 27, 2008 11:44 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The problem with what you’re reading ...
is that it doesn’t go into enough depth for your satisfaction/comfort. Apples to apples comparison would be checking the AL-vs.-NL record at NL parks, thus removing the advantage of experience and presence of the DH. Apple to apples might also consist of calculating what AL offense would total to without the presence of the DH and comparing that with the NL output of their non-pitcher offensive statistics. It can be done, better statisticians with more time than I are capable of this. The same comparison could even be made of pitchers from both leagues. I would think that non-DH/pitcher BABIP comparisons would be valid. The stats that NSJ gives are really high-level figures that are likely statistically significant, but he hasn’t produced the calculations that prove it so. Having just finished my first year of grad school, and with that two stats classes, my "gut" instinct says the difference is meaningful even if it hasn’t filtered out the DH/pitcher effects.
by Rickeyfan on Jun 27, 2008 10:14 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I accept all your points without thought or question.
Because you follow the Giants, and thus you know the game inside and out and we clearly have an inferiorit… BWAAAHAHAA!
Oh man, I tried to keep a straight face but I couldn’t go through with it. I was THIS CLOSE but I laughed and gave it away…
Dude, you’re a Giants fan. Anything beyond Bonds’ left nut and that beachball coming your way is just words with no meaning.
Or, if you prefer your answers in single words…
“Scoreboard.”
Notes From The Nat has a new home: http://www.natnotes.com
by Ozzz on Jun 27, 2008 10:16 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
wow, alright well, I appreciate the fact that you automoatically consider I’m an idiot becaus eof the team I follow. whatever, I think what i said makes sense, at thats fine with me
I wanted to adopt, but all the good looking babies were taken
by joeytothelimit on Jun 27, 2008 10:19 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh.. You mean you're not into stereotypes?
Well then, perhaps you’d like to make less arguments that start with lines like “what’s up with A’s fans and your inferiority complex."
Yes, all us A’s fans have an inferiority complex. And all Giants fans are godless fools who don’t mind cheering for cheats who inject themselves with horse steroids while refusing to run out flyballs or chase down liners into left.
You made the rules, now learn to play the game.
Notes From The Nat has a new home: http://www.natnotes.com
by Ozzz on Jun 27, 2008 12:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I dont want to start any other arguments along these lines. you can read about why I made those comments below, it was friendly ribbing. but what, you didn’t cheer Macgwire or Conseco back in the day? do you want to concede your 1989 championship? Let’s be fair, we’ve all cheered for cheaters, we just may not have know it then or now. I’m not condoning anything Bonds did at all. He was a tremendous baseball player, you cant deny his talent, but he was a complete dick as a personality, ok i get it. but he should not be the scapegoat for the steroids era, everybody is guilty up and down every organization that turned a blind eye to it. Lying about it is the same thing as not revealing that you took part in it in my book. the worst offense being the cheating, not the lying.
You should write one-liners for action movies, I think you’d be good at it
I wanted to adopt, but all the good looking babies were taken
by joeytothelimit on Jun 27, 2008 12:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Actually, no.
I didn’t cheer for Canseco and McGwire. In fact, I railed against McGwire hard on this very blog over the last several years, and during the years he was an Athletic, I was cheering for other teams.
If you do a little looking, you’ll also find I haven’t been overly complimentary about Senor Cust, who it was revealed recently has a little tarnish on his past.
I don’t cheer for laundry. For me, it’s not just what my team does, but how they do it that counts.
And FWIW, I have written one liners for action movies. I also claim indirect credit for “I got her number… how do you like dem apples?”
Notes From The Nat has a new home: http://www.natnotes.com
by Ozzz on Jun 27, 2008 2:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nothing whatsoever has been "revealed" about Jack Cust's past
The hearsay opinion of one man is not evidence. And no one has come up with shit to support it in the months since the Mitchell report.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Jun 27, 2008 3:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Guilty till proven innocent
If amphetamines are included, the subject line here could almost apply to the entire league, let alone Cust. The Mitchell Report did not name many names; it produced nowhere near the number of names it could have produced. Granted, it also has far too little credibility given the hype surrounding it and time spent on it (or at least the time spent awaiting it. I concede that its credibility is compromised on the basis of Mitchell’s methods. However, I would be shocked if anyone lucky enough to have their name listed on the final product did not use steroids.
And “hearsay opinion” is not really synonymous with “account” or “testimony” or “information provided”...that’s what should be attributed to Larry Bigbie.
"Behind both goals were banners bearing the word 'Calamity' while another carried the warning: 'You will drown in the Bosphorous.'"--Threats made by Turkish soccer fans to the British from a match in 2003. Tribute to their miraculous run in Euro 2008.
RIP Tim Russert, quintessential Buffalonian.
by Cutthemullet on Jun 28, 2008 10:31 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I can say with 100% certainty
that nobody on this board has ever cheered for Conseco or MacGwire.
by Dilferules on Jun 27, 2008 7:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
who knows, there could be Conseco shareholders who post here
"Behind both goals were banners bearing the word 'Calamity' while another carried the warning: 'You will drown in the Bosphorous.'"--Threats made by Turkish soccer fans to the British from a match in 2003. Tribute to their miraculous run in Euro 2008.
RIP Tim Russert, quintessential Buffalonian.
by Cutthemullet on Jun 28, 2008 10:18 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Clearing up a common misconception
Steroids were not a banned in 1989. Therefore, players who used them at that time were not cheating. Just like spitball pitchers before 1920.
Root for the Giants? Not even if they're playing al-Qaeda!
by Monday Fan on Jun 28, 2008 10:18 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Steroid apologists have popularized this argument
to the point where it seems to have gained widespread acceptance – but it’s simply untrue.
I remember the allegations, when Canseco took a huge and abrupt step forward and was tearing up the minor leagues in 1987, that he was using steroids. (Naive A’s fan that I was, I preferred not to believe it.) Steroid use was always covert and was absolutely considered to be cheating by everyone at the time. Steroid use was illegal and it wasn’t thought to be necessary that baseball have a separate ban. When baseball finally got around to making an explicit ban on steroids it had the perverse effect of enabling the argument that steroids had been somehow acceptable up till that point. That’s just not true – there is no point at which steroids weren’t considered cheating. When those Boston fans serenaded Canseco with the taunt of “steeeeeroooooids!” they were calling him a cheater.
by Faust on Jun 28, 2008 12:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It doesn't make it false.
First, breaking the law and cheating in baseball are two different things. Players do a lot of things in violation of the law that are not considered cheating in baseball.
Second, not all steroid use was illegal. It was fairly common for team doctors to administer cortisone shots.
Third, there is a difference between something being considered cheating and it actually being cheating. Some people consider stealing signs or a batter peaking back at the catcher to be cheating. If the rules don’t forbid it, it isn’t cheating.
Finally, I’m definitely not a steroids apologist. I don’t think there’s anything to apologize for. It doesn’t matter to me if every player in the game is on steroids and crank.
Root for the Giants? Not even if they're playing al-Qaeda!
by Monday Fan on Jun 29, 2008 2:19 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Personally, I don’t think Zito forgot how to pitch, he forgot how to throw.
And I don’t dig this fundamentalist worship that baseball gets. I’m deeply interested in the game too, but stating that one iteration of rules is the
purist formor that it’s
greatest game ever inventedtire me.
I think, in reverence toward the NL, you also overstate the differences between leagues. Arena football and the NFL? C’mon.
by rebus on Jun 27, 2008 10:25 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
the point is just that they’re different, and not really comparable
I wanted to adopt, but all the good looking babies were taken
by joeytothelimit on Jun 27, 2008 10:27 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
But I really believe that they are.
I believe the players that fail in making the switch, and I say this without evidence, are a minority.
And the shuffle isn’t just free agents. What about the exchange of minor leaguers between teams? I think the leagues are more blended than this strong dichotomy that even NSJ presents.
I’m more convinced by WaddellCanseco’s Yankees (I would add the Red Sox in there too) rationale. And maybe, on average, AL teams are just run more effectively.
by rebus on Jun 27, 2008 10:39 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It’s complicated. I just dont like comparing things that aren’t truly equal as being absolutely equal. It just doesn’t work for me, and i really would think that in this era where statistical analysis has become such an important part of enjoying and understanding all the many fascinating facets of baseball, that the statisticians, and those who appreciate what they’ve added to the game, could see where the statistics of comparing the NL vs. AL fall short
I wanted to adopt, but all the good looking babies were taken
by joeytothelimit on Jun 27, 2008 10:48 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nothing bothers me more than someone "lol"-ing at their own comment...
...especially when it’s neither funny nor correctly punctuated.
I generally bemoan the profusion of Mr Sabermetric Sporks in the Scrabble ranks who don't know the meaning or usage of 50% of the words they use. -monkeyball
by JediLeroy on Jun 27, 2008 11:32 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
LingOL...
or lol-ing? Truly an important question. I’ve been seeing “RsBi” gain some popularity lately, so I’m left wondering. “RBIs” to “RsBI” could in fact be the first step towards the inevitable total elimination of the term.
I was going to type “heh” after that, but…I shouldn’t do something like that, right? As for the original post, If someone types “lol” in order to soften something that could be taken as insulting, well, it might not be genuine, but it’s at least tactful. You’re reinforcing his perception of AN members as a condescending lot.
"Behind both goals were banners bearing the word 'Calamity' while another carried the warning: 'You will drown in the Bosphorous.'"--Threats made by Turkish soccer fans to the British from a match in 2003. Tribute to their miraculous run in Euro 2008.
RIP Tim Russert, quintessential Buffalonian.
by Cutthemullet on Jun 28, 2008 10:41 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You Cannot Be Serious!!!
When one league—over a sample size approaching 1000 games—demonstrates clear superiority for 4 years[:”comparing the leagues is ridiculous” is a pretty ludicrous statement. The difference is so much more than the presence of a DH—that is plain to see.
by madmongoose on Jun 27, 2008 11:35 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The NL advantage in their home park games should be significantly greater than the AL advantage
Because the difference between the usual AL DH and the guy who the NL teams use as a DH (or whoever that 9th hitter is) is significantly less than the difference between the AL DH and the AL pitcher who has to hit. You’ve just made the point for the other side.
And you can compare the leagues. It’s not even that difficult. But you’re right in your point (I think it’s your point) that a .270 average in one league (or whatever number you want) is not equal to a .270 average in the other league. But you can compare them if you know what you’re doing.
http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/
by thejd44 on Jun 27, 2008 1:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bzzt
Wrong.
In an NL park, both sides have a pitcher hitting, and pitchers basically suck equally. (Don’t believe me? I just looked this up the other day.) No advantage either way.
In an AL park, the AL has a DH and the NL has a bench player. AL DHs are much much better hitters than NL bench players. Advantage AL.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Jun 27, 2008 1:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Someone check please
I hear this point brought up sometimes, about the home park edge, but haven’t seen the numbers anywhere. How does this breakdown when the NL team is home, has anyone looked?
I would bet the AL kicks their ass there too.
P.S. Angels rule
by elricsi on Jun 30, 2008 8:14 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not a valid argument in this series, 'joeytothelimit'
3 game series against San Francisco, pinch hitting analysis
(Stats from http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/OAK/2008_sched.shtml )
Brown – 0-2, 2K
JHannahan – 0-3, K
Bowker – 1-2, RBI
Horwitz – 0-1
Aurilia – 2-2
Denker – 0-1, K
Molina – 0-0, RBI
Lewis – 1-1
Vizquel – 0-1
Oakland total: 0-5, 3K, 0 BB, 0 RBIs
San Fran total: 4-8, K, 0 BB, 2 RBIs
Walks/strikeouts -
Oakland
Total team walks – 10
Total team strikeouts – 23
San Francisco
Total walks – 12
Total strikeouts – 25
Granted, this is an extremely small statistical analysis regarding one series, but ‘joeytothelimit’ seems to claim the AL has an advantage when facing the NL in NL ballparks because AL pinch hitters are usually playing DH.
Extrapulating that opinion to our series, it is clear to see Giants pinch hitters far outhit A’s pinch hitters (With Mike Sweeney and Frank Thomas present, however, they would have had the 5 at bats Brown and Hannahan had, this is a point I do not deny). With those two on the DL, the A’s have nobody on the roster who is simply on the roster to DH (one can clearly make the argument for Jack Cust, but he’s played LF most of the year).
I merely want to dispel any notion that the A’s swept the Giants due to a DH rule, roster structuring or any other phantom MLB rule that favors the AL.
Regarding a more valid opinion, that of plate patience favoring AL teams over NL teams, I, in general, agree. AL teams force pitchers to throw strikes as there is no free out every nine batters. NL teams may press more to score runs and thus may walk less. I have no statistical basis for this argument, but it makes sense in theory.
Once again, in our series, however, this was simply not the case. The A’s and Giants walked and struck out nearly equally, with the Giants having a 12-10 walk edge and a 25-23 strike out edge. The A’s patience has led to a lot of strike outs looking this season and they are among the league leaders in both categories. For these 3 games, however, the Giants did a better job drawing walks, and this includes a Barry Zito outing where the A’s drew 4 walks in 5.2 innings (but the Giants drew 6 walks in 5 innings off Greg Smith).
The reason the A’s swept the 3 game series was a 10 run differential, outscoring the Giants 14-4. The A’s outhit the Giants 27-21 overall, but with no help from pinch hitters. The A’s position players outhit the Giants position players 27-17; The A’s pitchers got 17.2 innings from Smith, Harden & Eveland (allowing 2 ER) and 9.1 IP from the bullpen (2 ERs) while Giants pitchers got 18 IP from Zito, Cain & Correia (allowing 12 ERs) and 9 IP form the bullpen (2 ERs). The innings pitched are nearly identical for starting staffs and the bullpen, and the bullpens gave up the same amount of runs, but A’s starters gave up 10 fewer earned runs.
The A’s won this series thanks to starting pitching, which is nothing new here.
by BillMoresi on Jun 27, 2008 3:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It’s cool that you went to the trouble of looking up that data, but, I wasn’t claiming anything about the A’s sweeping the Giants because of this AL advantage due to the DH rule. The Giants got swept because they’re terrible! and besides the fallacy of trying to draw meaningful conclusions from 3 games, but the 3 you mentioned here are the worst to use because Thomas and Sweeney didn’t even play! It just doesn’t prove anything in this case, sorry. So is the whole idea of the advantage here in the interleague series completely baseless in everyones opinion, or is it just unquantifiable at this time? I think it exists, because logic tells me it must exist, and then the overall outcomes of the interleague games have bore it out so far. I just dont think we’ve developed a strategy statistically to show why the disparity exists, and how much can be attributed to the DH and the way it still influences the outcome of interleague play.
I wanted to adopt, but all the good looking babies were taken
by joeytothelimit on Jun 27, 2008 5:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree...
I agree that a 3 game statistical analysis proves/disproves nothing, especially when the two Athletics who are here to DH are on the DL. I haven’t been able to locate a thorough study on the DH yet but its been around long enough that there should be one. I always thought the NL had an advantage both ways as in AL ballparks, they can plug in a major league caliber player to hit and in NL parks their pitchers are already exposed to hitting. I found the theory simple minded, though, when you take into account roster structure between the two leagues (for example, Frank Thomas’ career still thrives in the AL, but he wouldn’t have a single suitor in the NL).
The point of my original post was mostly to point out how the A’s win, which is by pitching; and namely, starting pitching. This also can’t be proven statistically by a 3 game series, and definitely not against a 2008 Giants offense (although Molina & Rowand are among league leaders in BA).
I’ve loved the A’s for the excitement an A’s game brings: excellent starting pitching means you’re in every game, and even though our offense is atrocious, the games are ALWAYS close. I was a pitcher growing up playing Baseball and still love to watch the intricacies of the pitching game. It’s like Christmas morning watching Harden or Duke on the mound. Harden because he dominates with ease, but Duke even more so because he dominates by location.
With that said, I think the Giants are on the right path with young starting pitching. Best move made this year was to NOT trade Lincecum for Alex Rios. The next best move that SHOULD be made is to bring in Rick Peterson and take a lesson from the playbook of the Big 3. The man can coach young pitchers like nobodies business.
by BillMoresi on Jun 27, 2008 7:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
A's Overall Interleague Record
Does anyone have it? I know the A’s have the most wins vs. the NL since 2001, but what is our overall Interleague Record? Thx!
by Colorado Fan on Jun 27, 2008 10:45 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Which is incidentally also Zito's hits-walks per 9 innings total this season.
Notes From The Nat has a new home: http://www.natnotes.com
by Ozzz on Jun 27, 2008 2:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Gosh, joey, I think I'll kill myself.
Apparently you came here to disparage A’s fans by claiming we have an inferiority complex - which, as a confessed Giaunts fan, you wisely didn’t even attempt to support with comparative evidence. Even if one were to accept your position that the Rays’ mildly better mid-season record makes them a better-run team (and I’d note that the difference between the A’s and Rays is a lot smaller than, say, the difference between the A’s and your team), their success is a recent phenomenon. They are also built on a somewhat similar model. Anyway, good for them - we’ll see where we both are at season’s end, and beyond.
As a more general comment which may/not go to your other point about incomparability, I think to call anything that goes on during a baseball game “strategy” vastly dignifies it. It’s “tactics” at best, sometimes cleverly conceived, but very rarely brilliant. “Strategy” is much more fundamental and far-reaching—like how you go about building a team, over a substantial number of seasons. I think NSJ’s points above, and much other consistent evidence, contributes to a pretty sound conclusion that the AL enjoys a strategic advantage, and plays a better brand of baseball.
The meaning of life is not so much 'found,' as it is 'made.' --Opus
by The Dogfather on Jun 27, 2008 11:19 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
personally,
I can’t wait until disputes are settled by comparing the sizes (and quantity) of our Spore creatures’ johnsons.
by rebus on Jun 27, 2008 11:27 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mine is a big one.

And it’s randy!
Notes From The Nat has a new home: http://www.natnotes.com
by Ozzz on Jun 27, 2008 2:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Acutally that first bit I wrote was just friendly jabbing because we’re playing you guys tonight and the rivalry is fun, even though we always lose lol! I think your orginization is awesomely run, and I totally think that the what Billy Beane has done pretty consistanly now with trades is phenominal. I just can’t follow the A’s much because I would be one of those heartbroken A’s fans that dont ever get to root for a guy here in Oakland for more than 3 yrs or so. But honestly, the tides are changing in regards to locking up young talent, and I think because of that you’ll get to see some of your favorites stick around here through at least what would have been their 1st or 2nd free agent years. so thats better for the fans
Mostly those comments were to pique interest in responding to the DH thing, which I think is a fascinating topic.
I wanted to adopt, but all the good looking babies were taken
by joeytothelimit on Jun 27, 2008 11:30 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I thought our boys ran a pretty feisty ad in todays' CCTimes.
The battle of the Bay**
- when you’ve won nine out of ten, it’s had to call it a “battle.”
Hopefully that’ll bring out a few of your brethren—we could use the dough.
It’s been interesting, though, that A’s games on TV have consistently outdrawn Giaunts games (bigger viewerships), whereas the live gates are almost not comparable ;-). One theory might be that the stadium really does make that big a difference.
The meaning of life is not so much 'found,' as it is 'made.' --Opus
by The Dogfather on Jun 27, 2008 11:37 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Say what?
Where is this info about TV games? I was under the distinct impression that A’s games drew like 1/3 the TV viewers of Giants games.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Jun 27, 2008 11:48 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't have time to find it, but it was in the CCTimes of-late.
The meaning of life is not so much 'found,' as it is 'made.' --Opus
by The Dogfather on Jun 27, 2008 11:50 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Side note:
The stats were taken from the total number of TVs in Billy Beane’s mansion, Blez’s batcave/basement, and a pub called “Oakland McAthletics’s”.
Now that I mention it, when are we going to have an AN Day in the Blezcave? I’ll bring the spinny bottle.
Notes From The Nat has a new home: http://www.natnotes.com
by Ozzz on Jun 27, 2008 2:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don't forget about the AL's string of All-Star game dominance
The AL has an 11 year unbeaten streak and is 16-3-1 in the last 20 years.
I’m not saying winning All-Star games proves who the better league is, but when you string them together like this, it at least adds something to any discussion comparing the two leagues.
by dolemite on Jun 27, 2008 12:59 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
All-in-all, it's

The meaning of life is not so much 'found,' as it is 'made.' --Opus
by The Dogfather on Jun 27, 2008 1:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
open question
Has there been any inquiry of the DH effect on defense?
Do AL teams, with the DH spot available, have better defense? I would guess that most NL teams have to sacrifice defense for hitting more often.
by rebus on Jun 27, 2008 1:40 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
That's actually an interesting notion
Less need to have a ‘Cust’ playing the field, since the power can be found elsewhere.
hmm. How about a Cust in left, right, and DH?
by MobiusKlein on Jun 27, 2008 10:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's an advantage to the AL either way
It either allows you to start two DHs (Boston, with Manny or Ortiz), or hide a horrible defender and run a terrific defense out there.
"Let’s just hope he’s not a complete turd out there." -thejd44, describing Crosby's best scenario.
by notsellingjeans on Jun 28, 2008 8:26 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Doesnt probe the depth of the issue
Your analysis, like many I’ve read on the subject, fails to probe the depth of the issue. You won’t get any argument from me that the AL has better an advantage in head to head. I’ve never disagreed on that point.
Here are the questions I would pose: (1) How much of the disparity between the leagues is talent and how much is stylistic? (2) How much of the disparity is a result of roster construction?
1. My theory is that AL hitters aren’t better talent wise…they are better in their approach. The DH encourages a style of play that allows hitters to be more patient at the plate. NL hitters are trained to be more aggressive because with the P at the end of the lineup it is incumbent upon the hitter at the plate to move the run across. While we can debate whether this approach is "better" within the constraints of the NL game there is little debate that when the two leagues face each other head to head the AL has an advantage as a result of the more patient approach of their hitters.
2. Roster Construction: The limited strategy of the AL game means few pinch hitters, double switches, and other opportunities to take advantage of "splits." As a consequence, AL teams have more flexibility than NL teams with how the construct their rosters. I haven’t developed this very far but I would imagine that AL teams if they want can carry an extra pitcher which might give them an advantage head to head.
Final thought…while this point is spot on: "Barry Zito, Cha Seung Baek, Chan Ho Park, Jorge De La Rosa, Doug Davis, arguably even Randy Johnson at this stage in his career – would those guys crack any AL rotation? And that’s just from one division, the NL West."
Anyone who claims this: "Rich Harden – the epitome of a dominant AL starter, like Beckett or Halladay, which, frankly, is a class above Peavy/Lincecum/Volquez et al," has never seen those 3 pitch. Peavy, Lincecum, Volquez would be front line starters in either league.
Your conflating two separate arguments. The first suggests the difference between the two leagues is depth. On this I would agree. The second point suggests that even the top talent is unequal. On this I would strongly disagree.
Here is an example that would give your argument more credibility: Jonathan Sanchez. He is a guy with nasty stuff but marginal control that looks dominate in the NL and misses a lot of bats as a result of the aggressive approach of NL hitters. On any given night he could shut the Braves or the Diamondbacks down for 8 innings. Yet you put him up against the Red Sox or the Yankees and he will be putting a lot of leadoff men on base via the walk and facing a lot of hitter’s counts.
by notsellingjeans elder brother on Jun 27, 2008 2:29 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
slayed via prose by my own kin!
et tu, Brute?
Good points as usual bro. I would agree that an NL hitter’s approach must take into consideration the quality of the hitters behind him. Perhaps it behooves the NL hitter to widen his zone ever so slightly to avoid putting the pitcher, or even a terrible No. 8 hitter, up in a critical situation with runners on base. Would this phenomenon trickle down throughout the NL lineup, with each hitter in turn then benefiting from being slightly more aggressive than his AL counterpart? (i.e., a No. 5 hitter in the NL should be more aggressive than a No. 5 hitter in the AL, etc.).
"Let’s just hope he’s not a complete turd out there." -thejd44, describing Crosby's best scenario.
by notsellingjeans on Jun 27, 2008 2:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t see how it could affect the approach of batters 1–6, but maybe I’m not thinking this through.
by rebus on Jun 27, 2008 3:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Interesting premise, but...
I’m not convinced it necessarily plays out, for a few reasons.
First, while it’s true that Kyle Lohse has better numbers for the Cardinals than he’s had with the Twins over his last couple of seasons, that in and of itself isn’t sufficient evidence that Lohse is a crap pitcher feasting on a bad league. As a counter-example, consider another ex-Twin, Johan Santana, and that his current numbers aren’t significantly ahead of his numbers at this time during his seasons as a full-time starter in the AL—if the NL was really that much worse, you’d expect Santana to be doing much better (unless, somehow, he magically lost about 20% of his pitching ability by moving into Shea Stadium).
Second, the idea that NL pitchers on the whole are being beaten up by AL offenses doesn’t seem to hold water based on the two teams with the best interleague records thus far in 2008: the Kansas City Royals, who have arguably the worst offense in the AL this year (only the Mariners could challenge them), and the Minnesota Twins, whose offense is better of late, but whose success is much more likely due to their 2.27 staff ERA in interleague play.
And while the AL as a whole may be better than the NL, NL teams have won three-of-seven World Series titles in the 21st century, so the best NL teams would seem to be competitive when compared with the best AL teams, which is really the more important measure. (After all, if half the teams in the NL are in ‘rebuilding mode’, while only a handful of AL teams are, then you’d expect the AL to show as a ‘superior’ league in overall performance.)
by dwintheiser on Jun 27, 2008 4:34 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
3 of 8, according to most people...
then again, most people said 2000 was the first year of the new millenium.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Jun 27, 2008 6:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've got nothing substantive to add, NSJ
But I did want to compliment you on the Eaton paragraph. I also liked the bit about Lohse.
Oh, and your brother’s a fool. You can tell him I said so. I’d tell him myself, face to face, unless of course he’s bigger than I am.
by Faust on Jun 28, 2008 8:47 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
He's 6'4", 260 lbs., a boxer, Naval Academy grad, and a combat vet...
I don’t mess with him.
"Let’s just hope he’s not a complete turd out there." -thejd44, describing Crosby's best scenario.
by notsellingjeans on Jun 28, 2008 12:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs























