Are the A's a Contender or Pretender?

Almost half way through the season, the A's are 4.5 games back of the Angels in the division and 4 games back of the Rays in the Wild Card, with the Twins and Yankees close behind. It may be too early to speculate, but since people on AN have been talking about it, I just wanted to centralize the discussion, and it would certainly be fun to know in the end which ANer has the gift of prophecy.:)

Apart from the obvious concerns about the health and durability of Rich Harden and Justin Duchscherer, and almost everybody on the roster, for that matter, based on what we've seen so far, their pitching, defense and offense, are the A's a legitimate contender? Will they make the playoffs?

1. The Division.

The A's have losing records against all the other teams in the division, even the owner of the major league worst record, the Mariners,

The Angels are the obvious obstacle to the A's winning the division crown. Since 2003, the A's won the regular season series vs. the Angels only once, and that was last year. This year, the A's are 3-4 against them.

Defense : Advantage: Angels

The Angels are better than the A's in terms of defense stats (higher fielding percentage, fewer errors, fewer un-earned runs). However, as the young A's continue to gain experience, their defense will surely improve.

Pitching: Wash

Angels' team ERA is half a run higher than the A's, but I suspect that, because of their good defense, their pitching performance is more sustainable. The Angels pitching staff have proven major league record, whereas the A's have four starters (including 2 rookies) who have yet to pitch a full season.

Offense: Slight Edge: Angels

Angels' batting average is higher than the A's, although the A's have scored more runs (from blowouts). The Angels'  have more speed on the base paths and play the running game better.

Overall: Advantage Angels

2. Wild Card

Boston and Chi Sox are on top of their respective division, and with their solid pitching staff and potent lineup, barring any unforeseen circumstances, they will still be at season end. But as the old cliche goes, anything is possible in baseball. Who would've predicted that late season collapse of the 2006 Tigers or the 2007 Mets?

The team to beat for the Wild Card, IMO, is the Rays. For the simple reason that they have no apparent weaknesses. Their stats and style of play are very similar  to that of the Angels, with much improved pitching. The Yankees and Twins have good offense, but their pitching is their Achilles heel.

How do the A's compare to the Rays? The A's lost the only series they played this season 1-2, though it could easily have been a series win.

Then there are also the intangibles.

The Rays have been bottom feeders in the AL East for so many years, but now they are above .600 for the first time in team history. They have the hunger and drive to compete and win, like the Tigers of 2006. In contrast, the A's have been near or on top of the AL West for most of the past decade, and now they are in a supposed rebuilding mode, with a group of mild-mannered young players, who nobody expected to contend. Yet, there they are right in the midst of it all.