Duke and the CY-- Pipedream??

by madmongoose on Jun 23, 2008 1:00 PM PDT Comment 69 comments

Let me begin with the obvious huge caveat. He's at 77 innings-- and has never even hit double that in the bigs (minors, too?). And half the anchors at ESPN still can't pronounce his name. And he missed 3 starts.

Having said that, it's not the craziest idea in the world.

Start with the fact that 3 of the pitchers we would all say are at least his equal this season and perhaps even better-- Kazmir, lackey and Harden-- have missed more starts and have fewer innings thrown than Duke. And Dice-K, the most obvious choice from the best team, has only thrown 65 innings as well.

So we're with left with a panoply of less than ideal choices.

WINS--

still a big deal to many voters, sabermetrics notwithstanding.

Leaders are Saunders (11-3), Mussina (10-5), Padilla (10-3) and Lee (10-1). Obvious breakdown of contenders and pretenders here. Nobody who plays in the hellhole that is Arlington is gonna win a CY in my lifetime, and certainly not a guy with a 3.74 ERA. And while the Cooperstown talk for Moose is probably warranted-- at least as a debating point-- he had better win 20 for the first time in his career to get any consideration, but an ERA twice as high as our boy probably disqualifies him.

But Saunders is winning for a likely playoff team with a decent ERA (3.03) and Lee has been the best or 2nd best pitcher for most of the first half-- current ERA of 2.45. What argues against each are their histories-- Lee simply has no history of doing this well and his team may be bailing soon. Saunders neither but his team is certainly not bailing. I'd rate him highest of these four;

ERA--

Other than the trio of "incompletes"-- Lackey (1.73), kazmir (2.03) and Harden (2.44)-- all of whom pitch for contenders and thus can't be totally discounted, we have another unsatisfying list:

Shaun Marcum and Roy Halladay. Both genuinely good pitchers. halladay is 8-6 with a 2.90 ERA; marcum 5-4 and a 2.65. Halladay has the pedigree-- both are reliant on an underperforming team that has just fired its manager.

John Danks-- 2.80, but only a 4-4 record. Nice youngster. He'd have to win 13-14 games in the 2nd half to have a chance-- nah gonna happen;

King Felix-- 2.87 and a 6-5 record. True stud. and he'll probably win one one day. He's pitching for the worst team in the league and he won't win 27 like carlton did in 1972;

Jon Lester-- my darkhorse. Great story; very good team. 103 IP and he's 6-3 with a 3.13 ERA. Could he win 17-18 if the Sox roll in the 2nd half?? would 16 wins for a pennant winner and a sub 3.00 ERA be enough this year?

Anyway you can see that a guy who is 8-4 and now leads the league in ERA isn't an absurd choice, innings gap or no innings gap.

If i had to say I'd choose Saunders, Lee or Halladay-- or even Kazmir if he can go hard the entire 2nd half. But Duke absolutely will be in the conversation if he keeps this up another month or so.

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duke for hall of fame. unless he gives up more than two runs in a game, then he should be demoted to AAA.

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Jun 23, 2008 1:03 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Is this Oaktoon?

"You know, a long time ago being crazy meant something. Nowadays everybody's crazy."

-Charles Manson

by kaweahkaweah on Jun 23, 2008 1:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

This sure sounds like Oaktoon

"I've been accused of using too many words...I suppose that's like accusing Mozart of using too many notes." Bill King

by Gerard on Jun 23, 2008 1:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

lol

you enjoy doing that, don’t you?? double lol!!

by madmongoose on Jun 23, 2008 1:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

personally i hope the writers break with convention and give the cy young award to kurt suzuki.

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Jun 23, 2008 1:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I wonder which catcher in ML history has caught the most CY Young winners.

by theblackpearl on Jun 23, 2008 1:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

It is either

the Spiders catcher or the Red Sox catcher when Young was a part of those teams. Charles "Chief" Zimmer was the catcher for the Cleveland Spiders while Young was in Cleveland. Way, way, WAY back in 1892, Cy Young won 36 games so I guess him for a single season. Louis Criger was the catcher for the Red Sox during Young’s time there so it a toss up between those to. I’m tired so the math may be off one or two but Zimmer I think caught the most Cy Young winners with 241 to Criger’s 193

Seriously though I think it is Charlie O’Brien: He caught Cy Young winners in four straight years from 1994-97 (Maddux twice, Pat Hentgen and Clemens). Played for Atlanta’s World Series champs in 1995. The Bishop Kelley graduate pioneered the hockey-style catcher’s mask and played in the majors from 1985-2000.

by A'sfaninNC on Jun 24, 2008 10:33 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

that could happen if enough MLBPA voters get peeled off by Barr

Can an aging lemur suffer from dementia? @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jun 23, 2008 3:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

way to early.....

haren was more lights out 1st half last year (early cy young recognition), and look where he ended up…i think maybe not even in the top-5 voting by season’s end.

by rh40 on Jun 23, 2008 1:12 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

of course

Idle off-day speculation. But I do think he’ll be an AS—and if I have the rotation right, he could easily get into that game since his last start will be Thursday before the break.

But you have to admit the CY choices are far from strong this year

by madmongoose on Jun 23, 2008 1:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Second half of the season will decide

I’d guess Lee is the favorite as of right now, but there’s a lot of season left. RH 40 is right about how Haren was #1 at the all star break but then stumbled out of CY contention in the last month. Any of the guys on your list are contenders, but it will depend on who can keep it up for the rest of the year.

"Dispatch knuckleheadedness with Bond-like aplomb." –74mk

by iglew on Jun 23, 2008 1:45 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Lee has been getting shelled recently

Something like a 6 ERA and 1.8 WHIP last few starts

by nevermoor on Jun 23, 2008 3:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

4+ ERA for June

by rh40 on Jun 23, 2008 5:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Once again, proves how out of touch I am

Thank for updating me.

"Dispatch knuckleheadedness with Bond-like aplomb." –74mk

by iglew on Jun 23, 2008 11:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I went to the Dodgers game on Friday night

where Lee looked great throwing 7 shutout innings before getting pulled after allowing a baserunner in the 8th. So maybe Lee’s rough patch is ironing out a bit.

by AsFanInLA on Jun 24, 2008 8:30 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Jose Lima once finished 4th in the Cy Young Voting and Raffy Palmero won a Gold Glove for playing DH

There is no such thing as a pipe dream in Baseball.

Pessimism FTW! ... Wait what?

by Zonis on Jun 23, 2008 1:56 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Was that a dis on LIMA TIME?????

by nevermoor on Jun 23, 2008 3:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

mongoose

great stuff my man, great stuff….................

"The two of them deserve each other. One's a born liar, the other's convicted."

by SwampyD on Jun 23, 2008 2:10 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I love Panoply

I always seem to land on Go To Jail though

"I'm seeing more and more Paul-baiting these days."

by OptimistPrime on Jun 23, 2008 2:11 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

that...is a stretch

"Behind both goals were banners bearing the word 'Calamity' while another carried the warning: 'You will drown in the Bosphorous.'"--Threats made by Turkish soccer fans to the British from a match in 2003. Tribute to their miraculous run in Euro 2008.

RIP Tim Russert, quintessential Buffalonian.

by Cutthemullet on Jun 24, 2008 6:45 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

If I was Don Imus I would guess you were black.

by theblackpearl on Jun 24, 2008 11:49 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

"It's not my fault your team's so shitty." -Steve Friend, head coach, Chabot College, to Laney College's head coach, who asked why we scored so many runs after we beat Laney 30-3 in 2006

by flipgatey3 on Jun 25, 2008 1:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

More like to be traded than Cy

Given Duke’s lack of starting experience, I kinda look at him with Haren’s 2007 season in the back of my head. Duke throws a lot of off speed stuff, I’m really not sure if his arm will hold up well over 200 innings, given his build and injury history. As much as I love what he’s doing for the team right now, if the A’s wants to sell high, I can totally understand. If the A’s trade him to a good offensive club, and he’s lucky enough to stay healthy, he will pile up wins, and be likely to win a Cy. If Duke were on the RedSox team, he could be 10-2 or 11-1, and the leading candidate for the Cy right now.

by asfansince1989 on Jun 23, 2008 2:11 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

good news is...

No way he gets to 200 IP—Maybe 180 or so, i would think—tops

by madmongoose on Jun 23, 2008 6:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

So, he just won't... I mean he's not gonna win the Cy Young with that number of IP

"Not in your wildest alcoholic nightmare would you ever imagines such events unfolding!" Bill King

by Buck Turgidson on Jun 24, 2008 12:05 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sure he could

If no one else is much above 200

by madmongoose on Jun 24, 2008 9:52 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

If he keeps up his IP/GS rate and makes 17 starts the rest of the way ...

he finishes with 196 IP … assuming he stays healthy, he could easily get that 18th start and top 200 …

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Jun 24, 2008 10:16 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Marcum just went DL...

You can cross him off, too bad, he was really pitching well.

Bring back Hammer.

by OaktownPower on Jun 23, 2008 2:43 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

What the hell is with all these pitchers with ERA's under 3.00

I don’t think there were any last year were there?

Pessimism FTW! ... Wait what?

by Zonis on Jun 23, 2008 2:56 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

sample size :)

wait til end of year, guys will fall off the sub-3.00 list do to injuries and/or regression to their career mean.

But it’s also pretty rare to have nobody under 3.00

Jeremy was safe. He jumped over the tag.

by mrrickyg on Jun 23, 2008 3:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd bet that in a typical year

you will see 5-10 times the number of guys with sub-3 ERAs at the ASB that you see at the end of the season. It’s just standard probability distribution.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jun 23, 2008 3:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I suspect you're probably overstating the case a bit ...

assuming you mean, among pitchers with a qualified number of innings pitched.

I’d guess it’s more like 3 times … though it would vary dramatically by offensive era …

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Jun 23, 2008 3:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The last two years

there were 19 guys with sub-3 ERAs at the Break, 3 with sub-3 ERAs over a full season.

It’s definitely era-dependant, I’m only talking about in the post-strike “juiced” era. In 1968 the number probably went up from the Break to the end of the season…

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jun 23, 2008 4:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Offense is down this year

That explains some of it—and a lot of the guys under 300 have missed time, so they are benefitting from small sample size

by madmongoose on Jun 23, 2008 6:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Duch's Innings Pitched ...

2007 17-1/3 (MLB, AAA)
2006 57-2/3 (MLB, AAA)
2005 85-2/3 (MLB)
2004 96-1/3 (MLB)
2003 154-2/3 (MLB, AAA—with 1 appearance in each level as a reliever)
2002 63 (AAA)
2001 181-1/3 (MLB, AAA, AA)
2000 143-1/3 (AA)
1999 153-1/3 (A+, A)
1998 142-2/3 (A)
1997 68-2/3 (A, RK)
1996 54-2/3 (RK)

If this were 2004, I would have very little concern about him posting 200+ innings …

This is not 2004.

I have no idea what to expect, as I doubt there is that much precedent for this sort of a career path …

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Jun 23, 2008 3:33 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

See

Dan Haren 2007

"The two of them deserve each other. One's a born liar, the other's convicted."

by SwampyD on Jun 23, 2008 4:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Haren never had his innings cut by 75% over 3 years, and then try to increase by at least 75%

the next year.

by theblackpearl on Jun 23, 2008 4:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

No

And although they are also very different types of pitchers, if you look at the month-by-month numbers thre are similarities. Point is that it’s more probable he’s going to have a fall-off than keep up what he’s been doing. Some of what he’s accomplished has indeed been due to luck regardless, like it or not.

"The two of them deserve each other. One's a born liar, the other's convicted."

by SwampyD on Jun 23, 2008 4:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

His FIP is 3.27

so Duke has been both lucky (4th best differential between FIP and ERA) and good (10th best FIP).

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jun 23, 2008 6:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

He's going to fall off ... period ...

if Jake Peavy or Johan Santana had a sub 2.00 era, they would be far more likely to fall of than not—despite the fact that they are, IMHO, the two best pitchers in the game.

Danny Haren pitched 174 innings between AAA and MLB in 2004 …

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Jun 23, 2008 9:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

You didn't mention Wang or Beckett and they are both likely to win more games than Duke. What about James Shields?

Besides there are eight other guys having a better season than Duke. Innings Pitched counts. Alot. So far it’s Halladay. Lee and Santana are second and third and falling.

"Not in your wildest alcoholic nightmare would you ever imagines such events unfolding!" Bill King

by Buck Turgidson on Jun 23, 2008 11:53 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I mean Wang will not be winning too many more games this year

I try to ignore the Yankees as much as possible by not watching ESPN or logging on to their dumb website

"Not in your wildest alcoholic nightmare would you ever imagines such events unfolding!" Bill King

by Buck Turgidson on Jun 24, 2008 12:08 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Shields seems to be condemned to Matt Cain's fate

9-7, 3.50 ERA…over a full season.

RIP Tim Russert, quintessential Buffalonian.

by Cutthemullet on Jun 24, 2008 6:56 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

sounds about right so far

he’s been in way too many 1-0 or 2-1 games on the losing side

"It's not my fault your team's so shitty." -Steve Friend, head coach, Chabot College, to Laney College's head coach, who asked why we scored so many runs after we beat Laney 30-3 in 2006

by flipgatey3 on Jun 25, 2008 1:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

right now

Lee, Halladay, Duke

RIP Tim Russert, quintessential Buffalonian.

by Cutthemullet on Jun 24, 2008 6:44 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

btw

I know the Texas offense can do wonders for an average pitcher’s W-L record, but how is Vicente Padilla 10-3? I follow a certain divisional rival and play fantasy baseball, but I still had no idea he had ten wins already.

RIP Tim Russert, quintessential Buffalonian.

by Cutthemullet on Jun 24, 2008 6:48 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

he still sucks

"It's not my fault your team's so shitty." -Steve Friend, head coach, Chabot College, to Laney College's head coach, who asked why we scored so many runs after we beat Laney 30-3 in 2006

by flipgatey3 on Jun 25, 2008 1:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Halladay being hit in the face...

and Felix’s ankle twist…I’d guess the latter could be damaging. Halladay will probably still go the distance in his next start. Until Johnson pitched a CG with 7 earned runs the other day, Halladay was impressing me with his 4 ER, CG losses. Seriously though, I’d make him the favorite if it wasn’t for his playing for a team with probably the worst offense in the league.

RIP Tim Russert, quintessential Buffalonian.

by Cutthemullet on Jun 24, 2008 6:53 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

What?

No mention of our reigning winner? What’s up with that? I know he has a 4+ era at the moment but that is changing quickly. Over the last twelve games he has lowered his ERA from 13.5 to 4.06—posting a 2.14 era over that span. The guy is leading the league in strikeouts and among the leaders in innings.

If CC performs as he has in all but the two games he gave up 9 runs in the rest of the way - posting a 2.74 era, averaging 7 innings per start, striking out 102 and walking 23 he will finish with (Assuming 17 more starts - he’ll probably get 18 or 19, though):

84 ER, 225-1/3 IP = 3.36 era
230 K, 58 BB = 3.97 k/bb

Of course, those stats, all around, are slightly worse than what Halladay would finish at if we projected his numbers out - but I certainly think he belongs in the discussion. If he gets traded or leads the Tribe to the playoffs, though, I think his odds climb astronomically - both from the exposure he would get and the wins he would be credited with thanks to the play of his offense.

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Jun 24, 2008 10:34 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Much as I hate to say it, K-Rod would get my vote today

ERA of 2.06, he’s saved 2/3 of the Angel’s wins, arguably, he’s the reason they lead us by 5 games despite a much lower run differential. I’d vote for him for MVP too.

With the East Coast and “wins matter” bias, Duke has a shot only if he can keep up his super-low ERA. Haren got a lot worse the 2nd half of last year, let’s hope Duke can keep it going through the long season.

by Miata71 on Jun 24, 2008 12:47 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

You've got to be kidding me

He’s pitched 35 innings. That’s less than half of what Duchscherer has pitched, at essentially the same ERA and FIP.

The reason the Angels have a lead despite a crappy run differential is because they’re fucking lucksacks. Seriously, if I hear one more person try to explain away that situation as anything other than luck, I’m going to frigging lose it. It’s not “grit.” It’s not Scoscia. It’s not “things we don’t understand.” It. Is. Luck.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jun 24, 2008 1:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Our terribly inefficient run distribution may not be entirely a product of luck ...

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Jun 24, 2008 1:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

sure it is, we are lucky the pitcher is off his game on that day

by theblackpearl on Jun 24, 2008 1:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The A's themselves have actually come back to the pack luck-wise

The team is now only about 2 wins below what it ought to be. By contrast, the Angels are now about 8 wins above.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jun 24, 2008 1:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Some of it is probably luck

And I agree that it’s not “grit” or (much) Scoscia. But K-Rod is 31/33 on saves. If he were a more normal 80-85% on saves, that’s, say, 27/33. Suddenly we are only 1 game back, not 5. And 4 of the 8 “lucky” Angels wins go away.

Arguably, K-Rod accounts for half of their luck. The other wins really are luck.

IMO, 35 generally high stress 9th innings more or less equal Duke’s innings.

I’d love to see Duke or Harden win the Cy, and they are certainly in the running, but, in the absence of super-dominant starters (so far this year) you gotta consider relievers.

by Miata71 on Jun 24, 2008 2:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

They would probably have won 1-2 of K-Rod's hypothetical blown saves ...

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Jun 24, 2008 3:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

3-4 when you factor in

bloop hits, lucky bounces, bad calls in LAA’s favor, and the rule that “everything in an Angels game must go in such a way as to make Nico unhappy.”

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jun 24, 2008 3:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Luck = random. Random = "things we don't understand".

"Dispatch knuckleheadedness with Bond-like aplomb." –74mk

by iglew on Jun 25, 2008 5:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I disagree

Random means there’s nothing to understand.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jun 25, 2008 11:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ah, I get it. So, let's see...

“The problem with my brain is that random.”

Yup.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jun 26, 2008 6:40 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

If you're including relievers

Mariano Rivera is having a much better season than Rodriguez – 0.76 ERA, 0.57 WHIP, 40 K vs. 3 BB, and perfect (21/21) in save opportunities.

"May a nit suck Cajun geese?" wonders Red. No, we see gnu Jack Cust in a yam.

by andeux on Jun 24, 2008 1:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I couldn't care less

The games fascinate me. The individual awards do not. I gave up on awards when Mitchell Page’s Rookie of the Year Award was given to Eddie Murray.

Root for the Giants? Not even if they're playing al-Qaeda!

by Monday Fan on Jun 24, 2008 1:10 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

by Nico on Jun 24, 2008 4:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

for me, it was 2000, when ...

Uh, never mind.

Can an aging lemur suffer from dementia? @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jun 24, 2008 4:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

T LONG

clap clap

T LONG

clap clap

"It's not my fault your team's so shitty." -Steve Friend, head coach, Chabot College, to Laney College's head coach, who asked why we scored so many runs after we beat Laney 30-3 in 2006

by flipgatey3 on Jun 25, 2008 1:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs