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Monday Midday Minors Musings: Movin' On Up Edition

There's plenty of updates to get to today regarding the state of the A's system. The halfway point of the minor league season has come and gone, and with it, several promotions and player movements have occurred. Here's a glimpse of some of those moves:

INF Jesus Guzman - Promoted from AA Midland to AAA Sacramento

Guzman destroyed Texas League pitching for the entirety of the 1st half of the season, so his promotion was long-expected. Despite beginning 3 of the last 4 seasons in Double-A, this will be his first taste of the AAA level.  At 24, Guzman is no spring chicken, but if he can continue producing at a high level for the RiverCats, he could be in line for a September call-up at the very least, if not consideration for a future spot in the A's infield.

RHP Trevor Cahill & LHP Brett Anderson - Promoted from High-A Stockton to AA Midland

Two other promotions that were expected. Cahill, the minor league strikeout leader, came up first and made his Double-A debut  last Friday, going 6 innings for the win, giving up only one run on 2 hits, with 6 strikeouts and 1 walk. BP's Kevin Goldstein included Cahill in his Monday Ten Pack, noting that Cahill's the real deal, with three above-average pitches, good size and enough control to consistently get hitters out. He mentions that Trevor "could be in line for a September look", which might be too aggressive a move for him, seeing as how he's only 20 years old, has only pitched one game at the Double-A level and will almost certainly eclipse his career-high for innings pitched within the next month. I'd say just keep him at Double-A for the rest of the season.

Anderson was just added to the Midland rotation and will likely get his first start for the Hounds tomorrow or Wednesday, if he's kept on turn. If Cahill and Anderson continue performing at a high level (especially with their peripheral stats), they could be promoted side-by-side and both make their major league debuts late next season.

 

Star-divide

RHP Henry Rodriguez - Demoted from AA Midland to High-A Stockton

Here's a demotion that was expected. H-Rod was roughed-up for the Rockhounds and probably wasn't  quite ready for the promotion, going 1-6 with a 8.82 ERA with a 36-36 K-BB ratio in 47 innings. Those look like terrible numbers, but Henry most certainly did not pitch nearly that poorly. Over the duration of his Midland stint, Henry gave up up more than twice as many hits total (47) than he did at Stockton (22) earlier in the season in just about as many innings pitched. In this regard Henry was extremely unlucky as Midland's defense was not doing him any favors, allowing hitters to have a ridiculously high .439 BABIP against him. That number will likely come down considerably next time Henry rolls through the Texas League, which, when combined with hopefully better control, will allow Henry to succeed at that level in the future. He's back at Stockton now dominating as he did before (striking out 22 batters over his past three starts), and since he's taking up space on the 40-man roster, who gotta think that he'll get another chance at Midland before the end of the year.

Vancouver Gets Rolling

Short-season Vancouver has begun it's season with a mixture of freshly-signed 2008 draftees and an assortment of Latin American talent collected over the past few years. On offense, it looks like the big bats for Vancouver might come in the form of SS Jason Christian and outfielders Mitchell Levier and Jeremy Barfield. On the mound, I am really excited about following RHP Ronny Morla's first exposure to affiliated baseball. He's been bandied about quite a bit and held in high regard in the organization, so it's good to finally see some results coming out of his right arm. He's only started two games so far, but they've been good ones: 10 IP, 3.60 ERA, 10-3 K-BB, 3-1 Groundout/Flyout rate.

Trade Bait?

Trade chatter is heating up around the league and the experts are speculating that the A's might become buyers rather than sellers at the trade deadline. It's anybody's guess what Beane will actually do approaching the deadline, but one thing is certain: if Beane were to get involved in any deal for any of the likely-available vets out there (Nady, Bay, Sabathia, Holliday) he'd likely have to part with at least one or two prospects. While he'd be loathe to part with any one of Cahill, Anderson, Simmons, Gio G, H-Rod, Doolittle, Italiano, De los Santos, Simmons or Cunningham, there might be enough depth in the farm system to allow Beane to make a deal without giving up too much. Some guys I could see piquing other teams' interest:

RHP Vince Mazzaro: I mentioned Vince in last week's report as someone on the rise who's young enough and performing at a high-enough level to get some attention from other clubs. Mazzaro alone won't net anything useful, but in combination with another name or two might be a start.

OF Travis Buck: Yeah, THAT Travis Buck. He's struggled at the major league level so far this season, but he's mashing at AAA Sacramento and with Ryan Sweeney performing well for the big club and Cargon improving, Buck might become expendable if another team is willing to overpay for him after being enticed by his .850 OPS 2007 season and his strong AAA numbers this year. I'm not saying Beane SHOULD sell low on Buck or even that he will, but if a good enough offer came across his desk, Beane would probably certainly think about it.

SS Cliff Pennington: Small sample size alert! It's only been 89 at-bats so far for Cliff at AAA, however he's putting up career-high numbers so far. He's hitting .385 over his past 10 games and finally showing just a bit of power (.438 slugging) while doing his usual job of getting on-base frequently (.394 OBP). His platoon splits have equalized somewhat (.880 OPS vs. lefites, .805 vs. righties) and he's playing his usual strong up-the-middle defense. Cliff's shown glimpses of his 1st-round talent over the years, but with Crosby finally staying healthy, Petit a better option at short long-term and Hannahan and Murphy serving as good bench players, Cliff might be the odd man out. Since he'll be eligible for the Rule V draft starting this winter, the A's will need to make a decision about his future in the organization in the coming months, but it might be in everybody's best interest for Cliff to continue playing well and end up establishing some trade value.

Lefty Relievers: At AAA, the A's have a collection of nice lefty relievers that are just about major league ready. Dallas Braden could be a swingman/LOOGY for any number of clubs, Jay Marshall already has major league experience in the bullpen and has been very effective in the minors so far this season, while Jerry Blevins and Brad Kilby are both fairly polished products that can get both lefites and righties out and could be probably be effective middle relievers right now. Lefty relief is always in demand, and one of these guys could be thrown into a package to sweeten the deal for prospective trade partners.

Prospects in the News

- Accompanying Cahill in Goldstein's Monday Ten Pack is Stockton slugger Chris Carter. Goldstein mentions that Carter has been extremely streaky so far this season, but that his low batting average and High-K rate is not so troubling when considering that Carter's walk rate has improved this season and that he's currently leading the California Leauge with 20 homers (I tend to agree with him)

- Goldstein also assessed his pre-season Top 100 prospects lists, profiling each selection with a designation of the current status of each selection's stock. For the A's, he notes that Barton's stock is down because he is "clearly pressing" and might need to be demoted to AAA to get his swing back. For Cargon (#26 on his list) Goldstein says his stock is down a bit due to a lack of power (I disagree with Kevin's assessment here as Carlos is hitting a lot of doubles that will probably turn into homeruns down the road). For De Los Santos (#46 on his list) Kevin notes that his stock is down significantly, mainly due to his season-ending Tommy John surgery. Kevin flags Trevor Cahill (#98) as someone who's stock is way up while Chris Carter's (#99) is down a little bit, citing those low-batting average/high-K concerns previously mentioned.

- Baseball America's panel did a chat session regarding their most recent Hot List, and the panelists said they could see Cliff Pennington as a useful, part time major leaguer, while Matt Eddy seems to indicate that as far as the future A's rotation, he sees it lining up as Cahill - Number 1, Gio G - Number 2, and Brett Anderson - Number 3.

-Scout.com reports that the A's have signed Juston Street, Huston's younger brother, as an undrafted free agent. Juston, like Huston, was a reliever for Texas and didn't seem to impress much, only pitching 8.2 innings in the past three seasons combined without much success. He's been assigned to the A's Rookie League team, along with Sean Doolittle's brother Ryan, and both will look to hone their skills and get onto a full-season affiliate sometime this season, if at all possible.

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A guy over at ESPN dissed the farm today

or was it Prospectus?

anyway basically said that Beane’s remake of the system, while to be praised, now saw some of the prospects being “downgraded” a bit.

For those of you who follow the farm closely is that legit?

deLosSantos is hurt; Gio has been inconsistent, Rodrigues now demoted.

But…. Eveland and smith have exceeded expectations. Cahill, Anderson and Simmons are on track. Cargon is here, Doolittle is mashing, RSweeney playing well—but Buck and barton are still struggling.

have our prospects—whether with the big club or not—truly fallen more than risen since the off-season?

by madmongoose on Jun 23, 2008 12:45 PM PDT reply actions  

I disagree with that sentiment

Even if a couple of the players aren’t performing as well as hoped, nobody believed that all of these players would be pitching for the A’s anyway. That’s just not how it works. You get 6 guys and if 2-3 become good Major Leaguers you win. Not only that, but all these young guys (except DLS) have trade value. I’m not saying they should trade anybody in particular, but even if Gio and Rodriguez aren’t future #1 starters, teams would still love to have them. That makes the system strong.

http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/

by thejd44 on Jun 23, 2008 12:48 PM PDT up reply actions  

It was impossible for every player Beane got in the trades to perform up to expectations.

But some have exceeded expectations and when you combine those players with those already in the system before the Haren/Swisher trades, you gotta think that the system is in pretty good shape, no matter what the BP guys says.

Guys who have exceeded expectations: Cahill, R Sweeney, Eveland, Smith
Guys who have just about met expectations: Simmons, Anderson, Cunningham, Cargon
Guys who have failed to live up to expectations: Gio, De Los Santos, H-Rod

Overall, it’s pretty much a draw and the season is barely half-over. There is plenty of time left for all of these guys to exceed expectations in one way or another.

by Taj Adib on Jun 23, 2008 1:08 PM PDT up reply actions  

thanks

Kind of what I thought—but wanted someone who has studied it more to verify.

by madmongoose on Jun 23, 2008 1:11 PM PDT up reply actions  

I wouldn't even say H-Rod failed. He was just pushed too quickly. He should have

never went up to AA, he was dominating the Cal League, but seems to have lost some confidence, which is understandably for a 20 y/o who struggled for the first time in his career.

by theblackpearl on Jun 23, 2008 1:15 PM PDT up reply actions  

he didn't struggle for the first time in his career

he struggled a lot in Rookie League. The reason he was able to dominate was because (at least in Kane County and Stockton) he conquered his weakness of giving up too many walks and everything fell into place.

Pessimism FTW! ... Wait what?

by Zonis on Jun 23, 2008 2:04 PM PDT up reply actions  

Let's see. The A's received 9 players this offseason. 4 are ML starters, with at least average

results. Cunningham is hitting respectably in AA, Anderson is 20 y/o in AA, Carter leads the Cal League in HR’s, DLS is injured, and Gio is inconsistent, but has shown he can dominate. I would say that is a pretty good remake.

by theblackpearl on Jun 23, 2008 1:11 PM PDT up reply actions  

Are you referring to this?

“However, as a result of GM Billy Beane’s trades, the A’s now have one of the best farm systems in the game (although, to be fair, some of that young talent seems to be trending downward)....”

This was a comment from Dayn Perry at BP two days ago. I don’t know what dissed means but Perry’s statement seems accurate to. But the latter part of it is true of every farm system. When has any team had a farm system with all of its players showing progress?

Root for the Giants? Not even if they're playing al-Qaeda!

by Monday Fan on Jun 23, 2008 1:11 PM PDT up reply actions  

that's it

Wasn’t an awful “dis”, i agree.

by madmongoose on Jun 23, 2008 1:12 PM PDT up reply actions  

Plus, Perry's parenthetical comment was just a link to Goldstein's Top 100 follow-up

In which Goldstein had more guys with their stock down (Barton, both Gonzalezes, de los Santos, Carter) than up (Anderson, Cahill). Although I’d disagree about C. Gonzalez, those were reasonable assessments, and several of the downgrades were marginal (e.g. “down a bit”) and clearly subject to revision with further data – not exactly slams. I didn’t see any “dissing” (and of course the whole thrust of the article was about how remarkable the major league team has been during a “rebuilding” year).

by Faust on Jun 23, 2008 1:50 PM PDT up reply actions  

My take on this:

While the trade returns have been slightly disappointing, they’ve been counterbalanced by some great bounce-back years from guys in the Oakland system. The entire troika of 2005 guys (Lansford, Italiano and Mazzaro) have made huge improvements, as has Doolittle.

Had Beane known about the years those guys were going to have, I suspect he would not have made the Swisher deal. That said, predicting a 2.2 ERA in AA from a guy (Mazzaro) who just got done posting a 5 in A-ball would have struck me as absurd optimism at the time.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jun 23, 2008 1:17 PM PDT up reply actions  

And there's no guarantee that Mazzaro isn't just having a fluke first half

Would anybody be really surprised with a 5 ERA from him in the second half?

http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/

by thejd44 on Jun 23, 2008 1:19 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'd be surprised

Not shocked… but surprised.

His periphs don’t support a 2 ERA, but no one’s do—and they don’t support a 5 either. He’s pitched very well this year.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jun 23, 2008 1:23 PM PDT up reply actions  

re: Guzman

Guzman may be headed back down when Baisley returns from the DL, but I think it would be wise to start getting him some time at 1B instead. He and Baisley both. They may end up the two best 1B options if Barton doesn’t start hitting (for this year). It doesn’t look like there’s much out there on the trade market (unless the A’s really want to pay), and if the A’s are going to take a run at it, they need a first baseman who’s going to contribute something, even if it’s just league average offense. Baisley has taken a big step forward this year by controlling the strike zone more. He’s viable.. And you can’t deny Guzman’s results. Guys don’t hit .355 in 300 AA abs entirely on luck. Barton himself never came close to that.

Can’t imagine Buck going anywhere unless it’s in exchange for a major piece of the future. It’s a little redundant with he Sweeney and Gonzalez out there, but Travis Buck done right has a much higher ceiling than Sweeney and a better chance of reaching his potential than Gonzalez. A’s aren’t going to give up on him over 150 abs (I hope.)

by 31Boots on Jun 23, 2008 1:04 PM PDT reply actions  

I sort of wonder why no team has ever tried converting Jack Cust to 1B

As far as I can tell, he hasn’t played there in 10 years (when he was in A ball). Seems like it wouldn’t be a bad idea to see if he can be useful there in the offseason.

http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/

by thejd44 on Jun 23, 2008 1:22 PM PDT up reply actions  

I don't

Cust is terrible at fielding rolling balls in the outfield. Balls where he has plenty of time to get set up and square to the ball.

As bad as he is at catching flies, I mean… we ain’t seen nothing yet. I don’t even want to think about Cust at first base.

Besides, doesn’t the fact that no one appears to have tried this obvious move tell you something?

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jun 23, 2008 1:26 PM PDT up reply actions  

It does

But with the way so many teams have mishandled Cust in the past, it wouldn’t surprise me if they dropped the ball here, too.

I’m not saying it should be done or it would work. Maybe teams have played him at first in spring training games and it failed miserably. It’s just hard to imagine he could actually be worse at first base. But if he is, oh boy.

http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/

by thejd44 on Jun 24, 2008 11:24 AM PDT up reply actions  

It was tried

I think it was the first order of business for every team that obtained him. Remember that commerical a couple of years ago with Eric Chavez trying to play third base with one of his gold gloves? They got that idea from watching Jack Cust trying to field grounders and short-hop throws at first base.

Root for the Giants? Not even if they're playing al-Qaeda!

by Monday Fan on Jun 23, 2008 1:32 PM PDT up reply actions  

Espn?

what is ESPN?
they dont know anything about west coast teams.
BB traded for prospects. Not major league players.We have R sweeney, C. gonzales, D eveland and Greg smith at the majors right now. the other players we got in the offseason obviously are second tier compare to those in the majors. thats why they are down there working on their game. it is only human to have a few bad weeks in their career

by Wreckonized on Jun 23, 2008 1:09 PM PDT reply actions  

Great report as usual, Taj.

But, wait, really? It’s Huston and Juston Street?

by danmerqury on Jun 23, 2008 1:14 PM PDT reply actions  

that's street's mexican half-brother

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Jun 23, 2008 1:24 PM PDT up reply actions  

+ 1/2

"Behind both goals were banners bearing the word 'Calamity' while another carried the warning: 'You will drown in the Bosphorous.'"--Threats made by Turkish soccer fans to the British from a match in 2003. Tribute to their miraculous run in Euro 2008.

RIP Tim Russert, quintessential Buffalonian.

by Cutthemullet on Jun 24, 2008 7:42 AM PDT up reply actions  

Is it "Juice-ton" to rhyme with Huston

or just a cute alternate spelling of Justin?

by Faust on Jun 23, 2008 1:40 PM PDT up reply actions  

for rhyming purposes...

“Jyuston”? Don’t think that’s really top-notch phonetic spelling, but…it’s not exactly top-notch actual spelling, either.

"Behind both goals were banners bearing the word 'Calamity' while another carried the warning: 'You will drown in the Bosphorous.'"--Threats made by Turkish soccer fans to the British from a match in 2003. Tribute to their miraculous run in Euro 2008.

RIP Tim Russert, quintessential Buffalonian.

by Cutthemullet on Jun 24, 2008 7:42 AM PDT up reply actions  

Jyuston "Thunder" Street?

(add this to the “jokes nobody will get” cateogry, probably)

http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/

by thejd44 on Jun 24, 2008 11:25 AM PDT up reply actions  

Lansford & Italiano

It seems like it would be a perfect time to promote Italiano to Stockton. It also seems like a perfect time for Jared Lansford to slide into Stockton’s rotation. Has anyone heard anything?

Is this Midland’s Rotation:

Cahill
Anderson
Simmons
Mazzaro
Bailey

Or, do minor league teams go w/ a 6-Man Rotation?

by Colorado Fan on Jun 23, 2008 1:50 PM PDT reply actions  

Midland's been doing a lot of mixing & matching.

Where one guy, say Simmons for example, would get the start, but only pitch like 2-3 innings to keep his pitch count down, and another swingman/starter type would pitch 2-4 more innings and then the bullpen would take over. So I’m thinking a 6-man rotation might be in order in Midland, with Brad Knox (tonight’s starter) being the 6th man in line.

Agree about Lansford, although he’s been a totally different pitcher in relief this year (i.e., he’s been good). Italiano’s injury history still scares me and I think the organization will handle him with kid gloves, especially since he struggled for the first time in his latest start.

by Taj Adib on Jun 23, 2008 1:58 PM PDT up reply actions  

He had shoulder surgery too

and unlike high-speed projectile impacts, that tends to recur. Hopefully the mechanical changes the A’s made will keep him more healthy.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jun 23, 2008 2:37 PM PDT up reply actions  

"unlike high-speed projectile impacts"

heh, good stuff

"Behind both goals were banners bearing the word 'Calamity' while another carried the warning: 'You will drown in the Bosphorous.'"--Threats made by Turkish soccer fans to the British from a match in 2003. Tribute to their miraculous run in Euro 2008.

RIP Tim Russert, quintessential Buffalonian.

by Cutthemullet on Jun 24, 2008 7:45 AM PDT up reply actions  

Healthy, yes

But he still needs to not throw 100 pitches in 5 innings every start (exaggeration, I’m sure) if he wants to really progress through the system. I still see him as a reliever for this reason. And that’s fine. Good relief arms are valuable.

http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/

by thejd44 on Jun 24, 2008 11:26 AM PDT up reply actions  

Unless he has some very weird distribution of pitches per plate appearance,

we can infer that he’s been pitching on a count of less than 100 a start.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jun 24, 2008 12:35 PM PDT up reply actions  

Oh, I know. 100 was just a nice big, round number that says "a lot"

He does seem to go into a lot of deep counts though. Somewhat Harden-esque. Maybe this is more perception than reality. Do you have some sort of Pitcher per PA or pitches per start number for Italiano?

http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/

by thejd44 on Jun 24, 2008 5:30 PM PDT up reply actions  

Midland rotation

They use a 5-man rotation, but right now there are seven starters there – the five you listed, plus Brad Knox (who is starting tonight) and Ryan Webb (who hasn’t pitched at all in 11 days now). I don’t know if Webb is hurt or if they plan on demoting him, but it looks like they will have to make another move as well. Promote Mazzaro or Simmons? Demote Bailey or move him to the bullpen?

"May a nit suck Cajun geese?" wonders Red. No, we see gnu Jack Cust in a yam.

by andeux on Jun 23, 2008 1:59 PM PDT up reply actions  

Digging up the community prospect list

let’s see how guys are doing.

1. Barton: Graduated.
2. C-Gon: Hasn’t graduated yet, but in the majors and doing OK. Almost certain to graduate.
3. DLS: Injured.
4. Gio: He’s been inconsistent. Still a very good LHP prospect.
5. Cahill: Way up, obviously. Pretty clearly the #1 or #2 at this point.
6. Anderson: Assuming you know about the thumb injury’s effects, his season looks excellent.
7. Carter: Huge raw talent, problems tapping it so far. HRs notwithstanding, his season has been bad—and I simply can’t credit HR numbers from the CA league.
8. H.A. Rodriguez: Imploded in AA, but was clearly pressing there.
9. Simmons: It’s hard to tell where he fits in at this point. Peripherals look good. Also known to be working on a breaking ball. Also has been encased in bubble wrap since arriving in pro ball.
10. C. Brown: Looking like a minor league version of Chris Young at this point. Good power, good defense, good speed (9/9 in steals), good value if rented out to PG&E in the offseason as a part-time windmill.

More to come.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jun 23, 2008 1:59 PM PDT reply actions  

More

11. Cunningham: The power hasn’t been there, but I gather this is often a problem with wrist injuries.
12. Bailey: 12 HR allowed in 15 starts. That is not a good number. Amazingly, two Texas League pitchers have more.
13. Mitchell: Similar numbers to Brown, but without the power. Dropping.
14. Blevins: He’s been OK, nothing spectacular, but he should do fine when the A’s need him to take over lefty relief duties.
15. Doolittle: Clearly the breakout player of the year. He’s now residing comfortably in the top 3.
16. Smith: Graduated (and how).
17. Horton: Still minimal power, but his good on-base ability makes him a viable leadoff hitter candidate. Moving up.
18. Leon: Still nothing but good things from this kid, although the A’s have taken the kid-glove approach.
19. Herrera: Falling, as he continues to be incapable of taking the field regularly.
20. Sweeney: Graduated. Solid but unspectacular.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jun 23, 2008 3:08 PM PDT up reply actions  

I don't know about Doolittle in the top three ...

especially if Car Gon doesn’t graduate.
As I see it:
1. Cahill
2. Car Gon
2/3. Gio
3/4. Anderson
4/5. Either Doolittle or Simmons—he’s not far off, if Car Gon graduates, but I cannot see any argument for him in the top 3.

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Jun 23, 2008 3:23 PM PDT up reply actions  

Finishing out

21. Meyer: Huh? Baffling player. I’m still not ready to punt on him yet.
22. Powell: Still not hitting for average, but showing the rest of the needed catcher’s tools. If he becomes “Napoli+defense” to Suzuki’s “Mathis+defense”, the A’s will have the upper hand in the division at catcher.
23. Italiano: Moving way up, as he’s both healthy and producing for the first time. I still think he’s destined for the bullpen, but he has the power repertoire to be an elite reliever if that happens.
24. Demel: Solid sophomore campaign for the former Horned Frog. Up.
25. Mazzaro: Not dominating AA, exactly, but doing pretty darn well there. His control has made big strides.
26. Desme: It’s a problem when you have 12 pro appearances a year after you were drafted.
27 (tie). Carignan: Did basically the same thing as Rodriguez—dominated A, then came up to AA and started walking everyone—and yet he’s still in AA and thriving, while Rodriguez got demoted. BABIP is a strange and capricious mistress.
27 (tie). Petit: He’s actually close to graduating at this point, not because of ABs but because of service time. With Crosby and Ellis doing their best Ripken impersonations, he got very few ABs in the majors. Hopefully he can get back into a groove in AAA, where he was doing very well before his callup.
29. Banwart: Good numbers, but he’s injured. Don’t know how bad.
30. Sulentic: Nice bounceback year, although his path to the majors is a little unclear. Would Dustin Pedroia have made it as an outfielder? Sulentic looks a lot like him as a hitter.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jun 23, 2008 3:59 PM PDT up reply actions  

Meyer

I’m with you on Meyer. There’s no need to give up on him if “give up” means outright release or something. It’s not like he’s keeping much better players from pitching in the majors or anything. Unfortunately, at this point I see him as no better than Braden or DiNardo.

http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/

by thejd44 on Jun 24, 2008 11:31 AM PDT up reply actions  

On Leon

kid glove approach? Care to clarify?

Procrastinators unite....tomorrow

by muffinpryde on Jun 23, 2008 6:45 PM PDT up reply actions  

The team sees him as a starter

but they used him in relief this spring, one presumes to limit his innings count. He’s only thrown 28 innings so far this year. It’s not clear yet what role he’ll be playing in the Mexican League later this summer.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jun 23, 2008 7:08 PM PDT up reply actions  

I see...

seems like a reverse of Duchscherer, he wanted to be a starter and team thought of him as reliever until now.

Procrastinators unite....tomorrow

by muffinpryde on Jun 23, 2008 8:10 PM PDT up reply actions  

it probably has nothing to do with how the a’s think of leon, he has to go pitch in mexico so they limited his innings.

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Jun 23, 2008 9:23 PM PDT up reply actions  

It's simple math

Last year he threw about 80 innings stretched out over 8 months. He’s only going to be active for 5 months this year. A conservative plan would say that 80 in 5 months is quite a bit more work than 80 in 8 months. Even if the team is willing to go higher, you would have to figure the max is about 110. He’s already thrown close to 30, leaving 80 as the max remaining for this year. 80 innings is, what, 12 starts? That’s two months’ worth. He’s already liable to be pushing the outer limits of safe handling this year if his Mexican League team uses him as a starter.

The A’s are kind of writing the script as they go along here. There aren’t many prospects, if any, who’ve come down this particular path. And he’s got huge talent—to perform at the levels he has, at 18 and 19 years old, is amazing. So there’s every reason to be cautious.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jun 23, 2008 11:55 PM PDT up reply actions  

bailey

maybe they should promote him to AAA, just to see if a change of scenery has any effect?

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Jun 23, 2008 9:22 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'd be inclined to stick him in the bullpen for a while

and see if he can pull a Lansford and reorient himself. In a vacuum, the change of scenery plan isn’t such a bad one, but I have a feeling it would not be real well received in the organization.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jun 23, 2008 11:45 PM PDT up reply actions  

Assuming Car-Gon graduates ...

and probably even if he doesn’t, Cahill is the clear #1 …

Carter is a huge guy - like almost Frank Thomas, huge - anything he connects with is leaving any park. I couldn’t imagine that too many of them were cheapees.

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Jun 23, 2008 3:20 PM PDT up reply actions  

With only 5 more games until the mid point of the year (81)

The A’s right now are 46 and 30. If they are able to win 4 out of the next 5 against Philly and the Giants they could be on pace for a 100 win season. I know, that is a bit unrealistic but we have always been a better second half team. Granted we have a ton of new guys but look at the fact that we just got Chevy back and he’s playing better and better, Cargon and Swooney are only going to get better and even Barton’s offense is starting to come around. Ellis and Crosby have been solid up the middle and with Thomas hopefully getting healthy for the second half we could have a good year.

We may not win it all but at the halfway point close to 50 wins we could realistically win 90 or more games. I recall people saying we would be lucky to win 65 and that has almost been acheived already.

Just looking forward with a NEW FULL CUP.. to Hell with the cup half full theory!

"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"

by Eastbayjim on Jun 23, 2008 2:18 PM PDT reply actions  

The A's aren't 46 and 30

"We were s--, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."

by lenscrafters on Jun 23, 2008 2:25 PM PDT up reply actions  

all the A's in LAA were confusing

Signatures? We don't need no stinking signatures.

by jubjub on Jun 23, 2008 2:29 PM PDT up reply actions  

I Have EGG on my face. Not sure if it is scrambled or over easy yet ;-)

I have no idea why I transposed the A’s record and the other guy’s. But still, at 41 and 34… we could be at 45 wins with 4 out of the next 5. Still a remarkable record considering where we were supposed to be.

"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"

by Eastbayjim on Jun 23, 2008 2:39 PM PDT up reply actions  

Stockton Roster

By my count, Stockton only suited up 19 guys Saturday night at High Desert. Thank goodness for the All-Star break. They need some warm bodies. I don’t know how this fits in with all the other moves, but there sure seems to be room for moving up some Kane County players.

And what happened at Sacramento? The back-up catcher Knoedler pitched 2 innings. I thought the Rivercats had plenty of bullpen.

by movetotexas on Jun 23, 2008 2:25 PM PDT reply actions  

The A's seem short on organization players, for some reason

Midland has been short of bodies lately too. They need to sign some guys out of the independent leagues. Might catch lightning in a bottle and get a useful prospect—and if not, well, at least guys aren’t having to play every single day because there’s no backup at their position.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jun 23, 2008 2:41 PM PDT up reply actions  

Perhaps as more draft picks sign...

more guys will be pushed up from Vancouver/extended Spring Trainin/Rookie League teams to reinforce the full-season affiliates. Just seems like a chaotic time in the system right now.

by Taj Adib on Jun 23, 2008 3:21 PM PDT up reply actions  

Knoedler

He was originally drafted as a Pitcher in 2001. He changed positions (to Catcher) in 2002. Since Knoedler is batting sub.200 in Sacto, I think the A’s are open to trying him as a reliever (again).

by Colorado Fan on Jun 23, 2008 4:02 PM PDT up reply actions  

UPDATE: Tyson Ross Added to Kane County Roster

Tyson Ross has been added to the Kane County roster, making him the first 2008 draftee to latch on with a full-season affiliate. It’ll be interesting to see if the A’s immediately start tweaking with his delivery or if they will just see how he takes to pro ball with his current, “unconventional” mechanics.

by Taj Adib on Jun 23, 2008 4:48 PM PDT reply actions  

Inoa

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/international-affairs/2008/266380.html

According to several international sources, Oakland has established itself as the clear frontrunner to sign 16-year-old Dominican righthander Michel Inoa when the international signing period begins on July 2.

Multiple international scouts have told Baseball America in the past week that Inoa will shatter all bonus records for the international signing period by signing a contract worth at least $4 million, with numbers in the $4.2 to $4.5 million range being floated.

“He’s a once-in-a-decade type pitcher,” said one international scout.

Scouts say the Yankees have also been heavily pursuing Inoa, who hails from Puerto Plata, but with one week until Inoa can officially sign, the Athletics appear to be the favorite for his services. Athletics general manager Billy Beane and other top talent evaluators from the organization had been in the Dominican Republic to watch Inoa earlier in the year, and Beane was reportedly back in the Dominican again in recent weeks.

by Asfan4ever723 on Jun 23, 2008 5:46 PM PDT reply actions  

Bidding is going bananas on this guy

The Rangers and Reds have jumped in headfirst, according to ESPN.

Wouldn’t surprise me if his bonus ends up breaking $5 million. Given that he’s essentially a free first round draft pick, he could get close to what Beckham just got. Some team or other was offering a major league contract to a 16 year old. (That would force him to appear in the big leagues in 2012 or go on waivers.)

Me, I say screw it and pay the guy. But it’s not my money.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jun 23, 2008 6:10 PM PDT up reply actions  

Wow

Can we rip up John Henry and hank steinbrenner’s passports??

by madmongoose on Jun 23, 2008 6:12 PM PDT up reply actions  

The Yankees have dropped out

and the Red Sox don’t seem to be fingered as frontrunners.

This isn’t their doing.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jun 23, 2008 7:06 PM PDT up reply actions  

Hehehe

you said fingered.

I am like your Dan Aykroyd and biglow would be Jane, the ignorant slut. -Chad

by thecoolest on Jun 23, 2008 7:49 PM PDT up reply actions  

well

If Beane’s been in the DR rather than Wien at some point during the past few weeks (lest we forget his recent conversion to soccer fan…and executive), this guy has to be incredible. Aside from the bonus, what sort of contract would we be talking about here? Annual figures, you know. Wily Mo Pena-style major league contract, I’d assume, except more lucrative?

"Behind both goals were banners bearing the word 'Calamity' while another carried the warning: 'You will drown in the Bosphorous.'"--Threats made by Turkish soccer fans to the British from a match in 2003. Tribute to their miraculous run in Euro 2008.

RIP Tim Russert, quintessential Buffalonian.

by Cutthemullet on Jun 24, 2008 8:13 AM PDT up reply actions  

I keep getting my initial post attempts rejected today

Am I on probation?

"Behind both goals were banners bearing the word 'Calamity' while another carried the warning: 'You will drown in the Bosphorous.'"--Threats made by Turkish soccer fans to the British from a match in 2003. Tribute to their miraculous run in Euro 2008.

RIP Tim Russert, quintessential Buffalonian.

by Cutthemullet on Jun 24, 2008 8:14 AM PDT up reply actions  

It does that sometimes... just lag, I think

As for your question: teams have offered him a major league contract, but his camp (correctly) views that as a bad strategy. It would force him to make his MLB debut no later than 2012, when he’s 20. I think he realizes that putting that kind of pressure on himself to shoot through the minors is unwise.

Personally, I don’t see why teams and players would ever sign an MLB contract for a non-college player—there has to be some kind of monetary settlement you can arrive at to compensate the player instead. Putting guys on the option clock as soon as they’re signed really distorts the minor league progression curve—you’re practically forced to rush the prospect.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jun 24, 2008 8:55 AM PDT up reply actions  

There's no amount of money they could give a player that would compensate

for him hitting free agency two years later … seriously, we’re talking like $20-30m or more …

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Jun 24, 2008 10:43 AM PDT up reply actions  

Sure there is

What’s the chance of a guy out of pre-college amateur ball actually making it to free agency? 10%?

Then factor in the effect of giving someone money up-front instead of in yearly increments. And the (presumably) diminished likelihood of someone actually reaching free agency if the team has to make weird roster decisions because a player’s on the 40-man roster. The increased chance of being waived or released. The list goes on.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jun 24, 2008 12:42 PM PDT up reply actions  

For a high, first round draft pick (generally the only players that demand ML contracts) -- pretty high.

For a hitter, it is practically guaranteed. For a pitcher the odds are good - but injuries are obviously an issue. Which is, actually, why pitchers have even more incentive to rush themselves - the faster they move, the less likely they are to get injured before getting paid.

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Jun 24, 2008 1:28 PM PDT up reply actions  

Or you could just get paid up front...

As for the first statement:

Let’s look at the top ten picks of the 1998-2002 drafts. Not an enormous timeframe but a decent one.

1998: HS hitters were Corey Patterson (bust), Austin Kearns (will probably get a small FA contract), Felipe Lopez (bust), Sean Burroughs (bust). No HS pitchers.

1999: Hitters: Josh Hamilton (we’ll count him as an FA because of his pending long-term deal), Corey Myers (bust), BJ Garbe (bust). Pitchers: Josh Beckett (FA), Josh Girdley (bust), Bobby Bradley (bust).

2000: Hitters: Adrian Gonzalez (good), Luis Montanez (bust), Rocco Baldelli (bust). Pitchers: Adam Johnson, Mike Stodolka, Matt Harrington, Matt Wheatland, Mark Phillips, Joe Torres (all busts).

2001: Hitters: Joe Mauer (good). Pitchers: Gavin Floyd (?), Colt Griffin (bust).

2002: Hitters: BJ Upton (good), Prince Fielder (good), Scott Moore (bust). Pitchers: Chris Gruler (bust), Adam Loewen (probable bust), Clint Everts (bust), Zack Grienke (probably good).

During this period, it appears that 6 out of 14 hitters and 3 out of 15 pitchers will reach free agency.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jun 24, 2008 2:13 PM PDT up reply actions  

Stay the hell away from HS pitchers, huh?

Patterson and Lopez are exactly the kind of guys who would have benefited from being rushed—hitting FA when folks still thought they had potential.

Baldelli will get a decent FA deal—depending on how healthy he can get leading up to his free agency. He’s no bust.

For hitters—if you’re looking at something like 50-50 odds, how much would it take for you to give up the potential $20m extra in career earnings?

For pitchers, you’re right, they should probably just take the money and run.

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Jun 24, 2008 3:24 PM PDT up reply actions  

My take on HS pitchers

is that there’s little reason to bother taking “the best” ones early on in the draft, because people still have very little concept of what “the best” means, and even if they did (biomechanics, etc) the measurements for guys at that low a level of play would be so imprecise as to still make for a ton of error. Just pick a bunch of them in the mid-rounds and see what happens.

For the hitters—well, the first order of business is figuring out how much the bonus money is worth up-front. If you can get a little more than a 7% return on the money over the approx. 10 years between draft day and your free agent paycheck, you’ll double it. So we can assume the extra bonus money is doubled. Double it again to account for the 50% chance that the player is a bust. Add a little extra to account for the fact that some of the money in the major-league contract is deferred (examining the Rick Porcello deal, this is probably worth about $400K). Then add in a “fuck you money” premium to account for the fact that the bonus basically is enough to retire on. How much this is worth probably depends on the player, but let’s call it an extra 25%.

Add it all up and I’m estimating the value of the major league contract to the player is about $4 million. I think the cost of it to the team is considerably more than that, as they’re likely to be replacing 2 good years of a top talent with 2 mediocre years. That could easily be worth $10 million or more. So there’s an imbalance here—giving a major league contract hurts the team more than it helps the player. That’s why I say it doesn’t make sense to do it. It’s more sensible to simply pay the player the bonus up front.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jun 24, 2008 6:16 PM PDT up reply actions  

As far as I know ...

players signed to big bonuses than make standard MiLB salaries for their levels.

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Jun 24, 2008 10:44 AM PDT up reply actions  

Interesting home/away split for Gio

Home Game 2 3 2.90 7 6 0 0 0 40.1 27 18 13 1 20 42 1.52 .190
Away Games 1 3 8.06 9 9 0 0 0 41.1 59 38 37 10 22 41 1.11 .339

Notable: The core numbers (Ks and BBs) are pretty similar, but hits and HRs (10-1) are absurdly higher on the road. A big H/R split is not unexpected for a Sacramento pitcher, since it’s a pitcher’s park in a hitter’s league. Probably, there is not much to this, but I’ll toss out the optimistic speculation that high-altitude parks (which are why the PCL is hitter-friendly) fuck with the movement on his pitches (as there’s been a lot of talk about breaking pitches not working in Colorado.) But who knows…

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on Jun 23, 2008 11:31 PM PDT reply actions  

Well ... Salt Lake City, where he got lit up today ...

is at 4200 feet …

Over the last 10 games, 6 have been played at less than 1 feet while 3 have been played at at least 1300.

In the 6 at lower altitudes he has allowed 8 earned runs over 37-1/3 innings.
In the 4 at higher altitudes he has allowed 27 earned runs over 17-1/3 innings.

That’s a 1.93 era v a 14.02 era. If that’s a coincidence—it’s a hell of a coincidence.

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Jun 23, 2008 11:52 PM PDT up reply actions  

Less than 1 feet?

Was he pitching against the Death Valley Jolly Rogers?

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jun 23, 2008 11:56 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

lol

"Behind both goals were banners bearing the word 'Calamity' while another carried the warning: 'You will drown in the Bosphorous.'"--Threats made by Turkish soccer fans to the British from a match in 2003. Tribute to their miraculous run in Euro 2008.

RIP Tim Russert, quintessential Buffalonian.

by Cutthemullet on Jun 24, 2008 7:59 AM PDT up reply actions  

the Death Vallee Zombie Crooners

Can an aging lemur suffer from dementia? @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jun 24, 2008 11:51 AM PDT up reply actions  

he was pitching to Sal

Can an aging lemur suffer from dementia? @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jun 24, 2008 11:52 AM PDT up reply actions  

It's obviously not a coincidence,

as it would be surprising if he didn’t have a H/R split. But other, worse, pitchers are not as bad in these conditions. The question is to what extent the altitude affects his pitches as opposed to affecting the behavior of the ball off the bat. If it is mostly the former than that is great news; if mostly the latter then it suggests that he’s (mostly, but not to the full extent) earning the terrible road numbers. I think it’s unknowable from the stats at this point.

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on Jun 24, 2008 12:12 AM PDT up reply actions  

He does have a big-breaking curveball

There’s little question but that it will be less effective at high altitudes. That’s just a physical fact. What we don’t know is how often he’s thrown it at high altitudes, or whether it’s the pitch that got hit out for home runs, or whether throwing it less makes it harder to set up his other pitches.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jun 24, 2008 8:59 AM PDT up reply actions  

But we do know that he won't be pitching in Colorado, Atlanta or Phoenix often ...

the only three parks in MLB over 1,000 feet.

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Jun 24, 2008 10:49 AM PDT up reply actions  

err ... less than 100 feet ...

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Jun 24, 2008 12:34 AM PDT up reply actions  

wow, interesting stuff

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Jun 25, 2008 11:37 AM PDT up reply actions  

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