Two Small Trades for the Present and the Future
Pondering the A's frequent offensive struggles and their lack of right-handed hitters...
What about trading some relief pitching depth for one or two right-handed hitting corner outfielders that aren't in their respective team's plans, but would represent an upgrade to Oakland?
Here are the two deals I'm envisioning:
a.) Trade Alan Embree to the Tigers for Ryan Raburn. On a team chock full of big-name, big money offensive players, Raburn, 27, hasn't been able to get regular playing time. Yet in his minor league stints the last three years, he's done very well against AAA International League pitching (stats). Raburn's a plus defender in the corners and has even played some CF for the Tigers in a pinch. My desire to acquire him is based on my belief (very debatable, I acknowledge) that he can be a .775 OPS guy playing for the A's for the rest of this season in a pennant chase.
b.) Trade Keith Foulke or the recently DFA'd Kiko Calero to the Yankees for Shelley Duncan. Duncan, 28, is a different type of player than Raburn, but they share a few things in common; Duncan is also a right-handed hitter behind a team full of big name, big money players, and hasn't had an opportunity to play every day in the majors. Last year he absolutely crushed minor league pitching (stats); he is arguably the best power hitter in the minor leagues. He plays first base and also has a very good arm in right field. Hard to discern much from his range figures here - maybe an ANer has seen him play - but I think he could be a passable corner outfielder and spell Barton at first against tough lefties, or DH if Cust is in left. I believe (very debatable, I acknowledge) that if a major league team gave Shelley Duncan an every job and tolerated his 170 strikeouts, he'd reward them with 30 homers and an .800 OPS, even if he did get on base at a mere .310 or .320 clip.
The names of those three relief pitchers - Foulke, Calero, and Embree - could be swapped into either deal, depending on the preference of the Tigers and Yankees, of course. Clearly Calero is valued less than the other two. What all three have in common, though, is that they aren't a part of the next wave of Oakland A's teams - "the future" that we are all so excited about. Foulke is a free agent after this year and will probably garner bigger money elsewhere after resuscitating his career; Embree, 38, has an option for next year but might be considering retirement after '09; Calero will be a free agent after '09, assuming he's regained his health and effectiveness and is still pitching in the league.
The point is, none of the three are in the long-term plans. And part of what Raburn and Duncan attractive is that they both entered this season with less than a full year of major league service time. That means the A's would have contractual control over them for this season and five years into the future, should they blossom into viable part-time or full-time major leaguers once they get a real opportunity. Both of them could help fill our greatest organizational need on the 40-man roster - a lack of right-handed hitters with pop, specifically corner outfielders. If even one of the two pans out long-term like Cust has, and like Hannahan has to a lesser extent, I'd consider it a success.
Wing and Marshall could take the place of Calero and Emil Brown on the 40-man roster in this hypothetical scenario. Behind them would be Dan Meyer and Jeff Gray.
What do you think?
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Comments
Calero already has been made available...
Teams have no desire to trade for what they can get for nothing. Calero already DFA. Your idea is okay if a team will go for a minor trade; but will they trade with Beane?
Charlie Brown GO A'S WIN
by Charlie Brown on Jun 20, 2008 12:12 PM PDT 0 recs
Shelley Duncan
I live out here on the East Coast, so I watch pretty much every Yankee game until the A’s game starts on the Package…Duncan is not a good fielder…Don’t get me wrong, he is loved by his teammates and his personality would fit in perfectly with the A’s…(well, until he broke off someones arm after he hit a homerun), but he isn’t the answer. There are too many players on this team that do the same thing he does on the Major League Level….the A’s need someone who can hit for some power, but also hit for average, ala Carlos Lee. But I’m realistic where the A’s would never take on his contract. But he’d be the perfect fit in this Oakland lineup.
by mills16 on Jun 20, 2008 12:12 PM PDT 0 recs
Johnny Gomes, please
How ‘bout "jackass"? Can I still say "jackass"? @('.')@
by monkeyball on Jun 20, 2008 12:13 PM PDT 0 recs
Maybe if the team is planning to instigate some bench-clearing brawls
Otherwise, I don’t think they really need an enforcer.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Jun 20, 2008 12:20 PM PDT
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Career vs. Coco Crisp: 1.000
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Jun 20, 2008 12:30 PM PDT
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Is this supposed to be a rebuttle or an additional reason to get him?
In search of a new signature. Say something funny and you may see your comment here!
by DMOAS on
Jun 20, 2008 12:48 PM PDT
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Well,
it was supposed to be an amusing bon mot.
Can’t say whether it succeeded at that or not.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Jun 20, 2008 1:24 PM PDT
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I think it was a médiocre mot
How ‘bout "jackass"? Can I still say "jackass"? @('.')@
by monkeyball on
Jun 20, 2008 1:38 PM PDT
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What's truly a bon mot is "rebuttle"
"Dispatch knuckleheadedness with Bond-like aplomb." –74mk
by iglew on
Jun 20, 2008 1:50 PM PDT
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I support this plan
The A's colors are green and gold.
by mikeA on
Jun 20, 2008 12:31 PM PDT
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make sure you don't read any other responses to a post before responding yourself
How ‘bout "jackass"? Can I still say "jackass"? @('.')@
by monkeyball on
Jun 20, 2008 1:19 PM PDT
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Reasons Gomes Doesn't Make Sense
1: He’s a Platoon DH
2: He’s a starter on a competitive team (and would therefore not be easily available)
by nevermoor on
Jun 20, 2008 1:38 PM PDT
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hmmm
His fielding numbers appear to be catastophically low…
The A's colors are green and gold.
by mikeA on
Jun 20, 2008 1:43 PM PDT
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true, he'd likely cost more than Raburn or Duncan
But Gomes has definitively proven he can kill MLB LHPs, while Duncan and Raburn are as yet only projected to possibly do so.
And so long as we have Rajai/Swooney/Patrol Craft avaialble as the late-inning OF, I wouldn’t even necessarily be worried about a Cust-[real OF in center]-Gomes OF w/Hurt at DH against righty starters.
How ‘bout "jackass"? Can I still say "jackass"? @('.')@
by monkeyball on
Jun 20, 2008 2:26 PM PDT
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I'd be willing to take a flyer on one of those guys, but not both
It would destroy our defense. I would hope that Embree would fetch more than a 27-year-old AAAA hitter.
Signatures? We don't need no stinking signatures.
by jubjub on Jun 20, 2008 12:21 PM PDT 0 recs
My suggested trade?
Cash for Val Pascucci. (And maybe one of the above, too. Although I think the Yankees would want Embree and the Tigers would prefer Foulke, not the other way around. I’d rather get Raburn, personally.)
The guy can still hit, and it’s not like the Mets are exactly likely to get rid of Delgado and replace him with a minor-league journeyman (even though they probably should).
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Jun 20, 2008 12:30 PM PDT 0 recs
Delgado isn't the Mets biggest problem.
They need Pasccuci. But not to replace Delgado. To replace the crap that they are running out there in the 2 corner OF spots. Crap like Marlon Anderson.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on
Jun 20, 2008 1:01 PM PDT
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Also true
In any event, it appears unlikely that he is going to get a callup from them. Surely they’d have done it by now if he was.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Jun 20, 2008 1:29 PM PDT
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I agree that Foulke or Embree for Raburn makes sense.
I don’t think I’d give up more than Calero for Shelley Duncan though, if he can’t field and has a crappy OBP.
by WaddellCanseco on
Jun 20, 2008 1:21 PM PDT
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i would love this
now THAT is a guy who never got a shot. he is jack cust sr. basically if one didn’t already exist
"It's not my fault your team's so shitty." -Steve Friend, head coach, Chabot College, to Laney College's head coach, who asked why we scored so many runs after we beat Laney 30-3 in 2006
by flipgatey3 on
Jun 20, 2008 3:34 PM PDT
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you know what...
...I’d make these trades if I were playing a video game, but not in real life.
"You have to have a catcher or you'll have all passed balls."- Casey Stengel
by Gaijin_Suketto on Jun 20, 2008 12:44 PM PDT 0 recs
Well analyzed - but I would just go for one
“LHP masher” – a Bobby Kielty type – to replace Emil Brown, and I think the A’s would be set. Just imagine this lineup aginst LHP for a moment, remembering that Kielty, vs. LHP is a career .296/.379/.503 (.881 OPS) hitter:
Ellis – 2B
R. Sweeney – RF
Cust – DH
“Kielty” – LF
Chavez – 3B
Crosby – SS
Gonzalez – CF
Barton – 1B
Suzuki – C
It’s not bad. When Thomas comes back you have one extra piece, which is fine. I think that’s enough right there to compete, since all we probably need to subtract is one key reliever, and we have quite a bit of depth there.
The question is, who is the best LHP masher available for a relatively minor deal? Shelley Duncan? Jonny Gomes? The Klown himself? Someone else?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jun 20, 2008 12:57 PM PDT 0 recs
B.L.B.
He can’t be much worse than Milton Bradley’s fireball personality…can he?
We've never been in that position. We wouldn't know how to operate, I mean, do we get him a corsage?-Billy Beane on signing a high profile FA
by DyeLongJustice on
Jun 20, 2008 4:22 PM PDT
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and by B.L.B.
aka (he-who-shall-not-be-named), i mean the *all-time homerun hitter
We've never been in that position. We wouldn't know how to operate, I mean, do we get him a corsage?-Billy Beane on signing a high profile FA
by DyeLongJustice on
Jun 20, 2008 7:39 PM PDT
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I wonder how hard it would be to pry Kielty away from the Sox
Homeboy’s only played in 33 games this season.
President and CEO of the Ryan Sweeney Apologists Consortium
by Joey C. on
Jun 20, 2008 4:53 PM PDT
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Why the constant comparisons of Duncan to Cust?
They are not similar players. Duncan doesn’t have Cust’s K / BB rate. Duncan’s OPS in the minors is nowhere as good as Cust’s, even when adjusted for park and league.
I really don’t understand the fascination with Shelley Duncan, Look around AAA, Duncan isn’t all that special or different from a bunch of 1b slugging types who struggle with K’s.
Also, saying that he hasn’t had a chance to play because he’s on a team with big money players isn’t completely and necessarily true. The Yankees have shown a willingness to play young players, if they believe the young player is actually good.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on Jun 20, 2008 1:10 PM PDT 0 recs
Duncan
looks to me like a right-handed version of Dan Johnson. That would be a noticeable improvement against LHP over what we have now, but not something to get too excited about.
"May a nit suck Cajun geese?" wonders Red. No, we see gnu Jack Cust in a yam.
by andeux on
Jun 20, 2008 1:30 PM PDT
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The problem the A's have (and have had since Giambi left)
Is that we don’t have a dramatically above-average bat (aka “stud”). We thought Chavez would be that guy, but injuries etc. prevented it. Maybe someday Barton, CarGon, Sweeney, or Buck will develop that way.
If we’re trading, we should not just replace slightly below average players with slightly above average ones. We should get a new Dye and hope this time there’s no freak broken leg. We have the money and we have the corner outfield spot to lock in a middle of the lineup bat.
by nevermoor on Jun 20, 2008 1:17 PM PDT 0 recs
So you'd do something like Cahill, Cunningham and Braden for Jason Bay?
by WaddellCanseco on
Jun 20, 2008 1:19 PM PDT
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I'm hoping that by this you mean "that's not close to enough..."
which is correct, because it isn’t.
That’s a substantially weaker group than the Swisher package.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Jun 20, 2008 1:34 PM PDT
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But the real point is
I would be willing to give up some prospects (but not the farm) for a reliable #3 hitter who is not old/declining and we will lock up for years. This is why so many people like Corey Hart (26 years old).
Jason Bay and X Nady are also both under 30, but a long term deal would include decline years so they’re worse less to me than they’d otherwise be.
by nevermoor on
Jun 20, 2008 1:47 PM PDT
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Travis Buck, Brett Anderson, and Chris Carter
for Jason Bay?
by Colorado Fan on
Jun 20, 2008 1:59 PM PDT
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No! No! No!
That’s unrebuilding.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on
Jun 20, 2008 2:01 PM PDT
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Bay as your "Building Block"
LF: Jason Bay
CF: CarGon
RF: Sweeney/Cunningham
The money is there.
by Colorado Fan on
Jun 20, 2008 2:07 PM PDT
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I think that's a pretty realistic scenario.
Bay replaces Buck if you can sign him long term. Carter is a longshot. Anderson might turn out to be anything from Mario Ramos to Barry Zito, so he’s the “hair” in this deal.
by WaddellCanseco on
Jun 20, 2008 2:15 PM PDT
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mario ramos
nice name-drop. +1
"It's not my fault your team's so shitty." -Steve Friend, head coach, Chabot College, to Laney College's head coach, who asked why we scored so many runs after we beat Laney 30-3 in 2006
by flipgatey3 on
Jun 20, 2008 3:35 PM PDT
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Rebuilding means targeting towards future seasons
If you’re getting a guy who will be great IN OAKLAND during those seasons you aren’t un-rebuilding.
This is why someone like Hart/Bay/Nady/Scott would be good but someone like Gary Sheffield or Todd Helton or Griffey Jr. would be bad. They may be good now, but they’re getting worse by the year.
by nevermoor on
Jun 20, 2008 2:17 PM PDT
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You've got to be kidding me
Alright, I now understand why people are so willing to say “go get Jason Bay.” They have fantastically inaccurate notions of how much prospects are worth.
Take this package and add in Doolittle and Gio and maybe you’ve got enough to get Bay. Shit, you’d be lucky to land Nady for that group, and I don’t even think Nady is very good.
Pittsburgh’s management aren’t pushovers anymore. Huntington is not moving him without being convinced that he’s getting someone (or a combination of someones) who’ll be better in the long haul.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Jun 20, 2008 3:03 PM PDT
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You mean Bay would require at least Buck, Anderson, Carter, Gio and Doolittle
and even that isn’t likely to be enough? And we’d be lucky to land Nady for that group?
by WaddellCanseco on
Jun 20, 2008 3:17 PM PDT
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That was not well phrased
I meant you’d be lucky to land Nady for Buck/Anderson/Carter.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Jun 20, 2008 3:35 PM PDT
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Pirates would be crazy not to take that
The A's colors are green and gold.
by mikeA on
Jun 20, 2008 3:42 PM PDT
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Look at it from their perspective
You’re giving up a pretty decent major league outfielder. In return, you’re getting a blue-chip but still very young pitching prospect (who’s had an injury this season) and two “tools players” who are having bad years hitting the ball, one of them with questionable defensive ability.
I’m not saying I wouldn’t take it if I was Pittsburg, just that it’s no slam dunk. There may be a better offer out there.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Jun 20, 2008 4:05 PM PDT
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Horrid
As Pittsburgh GM, I’d take that deal w/o a second thought. None whatsover.
by Colorado Fan on
Jun 20, 2008 4:16 PM PDT
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And...
... that’s one reason you’re not Pittsburgh’s GM.
by sggut95 on
Jun 21, 2008 7:28 AM PDT
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They aren't doing anything this year
Nady doesn’t have any value for them in the future, and it’s three good players. Carter isn’t really having a bad year. I would take Buck or Anderson individually for Nady if I were the Pirates.
The A's colors are green and gold.
by mikeA on
Jun 20, 2008 4:22 PM PDT
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7% line drive percentage, >25% strikeout rate
and an OPS that pretty much consists of home runs in an extreme hitters’ league?
I’m not saying the guy is a bust—he’s young, good prospects have bad years, and the tools that the A’s traded for haven’t vanished overnight—but he’s definitely having a bad year.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Jun 20, 2008 4:40 PM PDT
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There's plenty to dislike about what he's done
and he’s been somewhat disappointing, but he’s still top ten in the entire minors in HRs, and he’s getting a ton of BBs. The HRs and BBs aren’t going anywhere: if he can get his BA up to something reasonable in the future, he’ll be a very good hitter.ds
The A's colors are green and gold.
by mikeA on
Jun 20, 2008 4:49 PM PDT
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Buck
Is a free swinging big lefty with no power who doesn’t get on base. Very attractive prospect for other teams.
by sggut95 on
Jun 21, 2008 7:29 AM PDT
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Just to defend C-Fan...
and this is one reason why you aren’t a professional baseball scout.
At least you got the lefty part correct.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on
Jun 21, 2008 8:43 AM PDT
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Last year doesn't count?
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on
Jun 21, 2008 9:12 AM PDT
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lmfao
That’s comical. You’re off your rocker. The same Xavier Nady who was traded to the Pirates for Oliver Perez and Roberto Hernandez in 2006??? hahahahaha. Nady for Buck straight-up… maybe that’s a fair deal, but as an A’s fan, even I wouldn’t do that deal.
So, 8 months of Jason Bay is = to 3 years of Danny Haren (basically)?
by Colorado Fan on
Jun 20, 2008 4:14 PM PDT
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I double-dog dare you to go over
to Bucs Dugout and suggest a straight-up trade of Travis Buck for Xavier Nady.
Actually, never mind. Thanks to the wonders of SBN 3.0, I can just do it myself.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Jun 20, 2008 4:54 PM PDT
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Let us know how that turns out.
Personally speaking, I’d be very tempted (as the Pirates) to do a Nady/Buck deal straight up IF my team docs could look over Buck’s file and gave the OK.
Of course, being the greedy bastard I am I’d ask for more then Buck from Oakland.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on
Jun 20, 2008 6:02 PM PDT
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Your overweighting the few good months Nady has had
Huntingdon not taking a Buck + Anderson + Carter package would be idiotic. Nady’s career OPS+ is 106. Defensively, he’s average, maybe slightly below, despite being fairly athletic: at least when he was with the Mets, he had a tendency to take strange routes.
A corner OF with OK D with a career OPS+ of 106 isn’t worth all that much.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on
Jun 21, 2008 1:32 AM PDT
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I call B.S.
Bay is 29 years old. He has 1.5 seasons remaining on his contract. 3 Years of Swisher cost a team 3 solid prospects.
So if you wanted Jason Bay, it would take Buck, Gio, Anderson, Carter, and Sean Doolittle? Yeah, right. Next thing you’re going to tell me is that we’re going to draft Jemile Weeks 12th Overall !!!
by Colorado Fan on
Jun 20, 2008 3:26 PM PDT
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Nick Swisher's career OPS+ is like 115
Bay’s is over 130, and it’s closer to 140 if you toss out his clearly injury-damaged 2007.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Jun 20, 2008 3:37 PM PDT
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3 years of Swisher
vs. 1 year + 2 months (guaranteed) of Bay.
by Colorado Fan on
Jun 20, 2008 4:01 PM PDT
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I think the Teixeira deal is really a better model here
than the Swisher deal.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Jun 20, 2008 4:12 PM PDT
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Not much difference between them as hitters
The A's colors are green and gold.
by mikeA on
Jun 20, 2008 4:37 PM PDT
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Teixeira v. Bay
Teixeira was 27 years / 3 months when he was traded, not to mention the multiple Gold Gloves @ 1B.
Bay turns 30 this September and plays a “mediocre” LF.
by Colorado Fan on
Jun 20, 2008 4:40 PM PDT
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Yeah Bay plays a mediocre LF
Teixeira cannot play even a mediocre LF. The only edge Teixeira has on Bay is being a couple years younger.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on
Jun 21, 2008 1:34 AM PDT
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I go away for a couple weeks
and this is what I come back to?
Do you realize that Bay turns 30 in August, that he’ll be 31 when his current contract runs out? You’re then talking about signing a 31 year old Jason Bay to a minimum 4+1 year deal (more likely 5 years guaranteed) at somewhere between the $12 million annual Rowand got and the $18 million annual Hunter got.
Do you really want to invest that much money in a guy that has certainly hit his peak?
And if you don’t sign Bay to the extension you’ve lost two very good prospects for a 1.5 year rental.
Your proposal is a deal asking to come back and bite the A’s in the ass.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on
Jun 20, 2008 6:00 PM PDT
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I actually led with that point
Quoting me:
Jason Bay and X Nady are also both under 30, but a long term deal would include decline years so they’re worth[sic] less to me than they’d otherwise be.
Hence the name Corey Hart popping up.
I would not trade 5 of our 10 best prospects for Bay. If the Pirates can get that sort of deal, then bless ‘em. My point is merely that it is not “unrebuilding” to trade several maybes for a definitely who will stick around. It seems to me that we’re targeting 2009/2010 for our rebuilding payoff, so a player we know can hit at the MLB level that we can have around those years would be a plus.
by nevermoor on
Jun 20, 2008 6:11 PM PDT
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+1
Here’s an additional concern:
Would anyone else be worried about the NL to AL switch for Bay, Nady, or Burrell (if he were available? Personally, I don’t think any of those guys would hit nearly as well against the superior pitching of the AL.
I fully and openly subscribe to the urban myth that the AL is a superior league. Even Miguel Cabrera has been humbled somewhat in the AL; Kotsay and Kendall have careers again by switching to the NL; I just think there’s something there, and it’s bigger than just a few anecdotes.
"Let’s just hope he’s not a complete turd out there." -thejd44, describing Crosby's best scenario.
by notsellingjeans on
Jun 20, 2008 6:15 PM PDT
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