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Monday's Mining the Metro-sexual Minor League Master Batters (and pitchers)

Well, I can't say Billy Beane is boring or predictable. Having placed roughly 20% of the 25 man roster on the DL in the past 36 hours, Beane decides to DFA 2B Kevin Melilo and P Lenny DiNardo while he's redecorating. It kinda feels like 2002 again, only without the losing record and the close quarters hot-tubbing pictures. I'd pat myself on the back because I've been saying we'd see some roster moves for a couple weeks now but frak me, I wasn't expecting this!

But Mining the Metro-sexual Minor League Master Batters (and pitchers) is not about delving into the WTF?! transactions involving the big league roster EXCEPT  when it involves newbies getting their call-up, which this week-end's roster extravaganza only partially does. So, first off, congragulations to Brad Ziegler and Carlos Gonzalez. Welcome to the Show and make us proud to cheer the green-&-gold. 'Cause if you don't, we'll boo you!

Seriously though, I have to tip the cap to Mr. Ziegler. Talent wise, he was a dime-a-dozen RH pitcher who probably wasn't going to make the big leagues. One day near the end of the 2005 season the A's (minor league pitching instructor Ron Romanick in particular) approached Brad and asked him if he'd be willing to change his pitching motion and become a submariner. Flash forward to May 30th, 2008: Brad Ziegler's name is on Oakland's 25 man roster. No matter what happens, no one can ever take away the fact that Brad Ziegler became a big league pitcher.

On to the update.

Star-divide

With the draft coming at the end of the week, I thought I'd do a depth chart that featured a positional breakdown of who the A's have (and where they have them) in an attempt to figure out what type of players the A's might be seeking to draft. (For the record, I had a really bad joke written here involving a polo jock and a kayaker but I removed in an obivous sign of maturity and growth as a writer. The fact that I mention my edit proves I've got a long way to go with the whole maturity thing.) Where was I? I swear, sometimes I think I'm easier to distract than Cindi in a room full of sparkly objects. Speaking of distracted sparkly objects, where the Hell are you Green&GoldGirl?!?! Consider this an official shout-out for you to make your quarterly appearance on AN.

Where the frak was I?

Oh yeah... A's baseball and organizational depth. Things should be pretty self-explanatory once I get started but I want to take a moment to explain the term "fringe prospect". In mine eyes, a fringe prospect is someone who's done enough to maybe have a chance at making the big league roster should an opportunity present itself. At the same time, he hasn't done enough to force the issue in his favor or has something (usually age) going against him and he could very easily get passed up the next time the big league team comes calling. We've just witnessed both extremes of this phenomonom with Brad Ziegler and Kevin Melillo. Make no mistake, 28 year old relief pitchers who aren't even on the 40 man roster are fringe prospects at best but Ziegler has pitched great thus far in AAA and when the need arose in Oakland for a RH bullpen arm the A's were willing to DFA a player to get Ziegler to the Show.

Kevin Melillo is 26 and had a 773 OPS for the River Cats. Not great numbers, but enough for him to be in the mix next season should the A's let Mark Ellis depart as a free agent. I considered Kevin Melillo a fringe prospect in the rough draft of this story and he just got DFA'd, so when I call a guy a "fringe" prospect he could go in any direction. I'm also going to focus on the guys who (I think) are more then organizational roster fill. Some of the calls may seem arbitrary (For example... 28 year old Brad Ziegler: Fringe prospect. 27 year old Justin Knoedler: Roster fill.) so if you've got a favorite that you feel I've slighted feel free to bring him up.

Plus sign after the age = birthday during the 2008 season.

Catcher

MLB: Kurt Suzuki (Team control through 2013); Rob Bowen (Team control through 2011)

AAA: Landon Powell: 26  .167/.287/.389 (FRINGE) I could make a fairly convincing arguement that Powell deserves a higher grade then that, given that he's a switch hitting catcher with pop, patience and strong defensive skills. Cold, hard truth is he's 26 years old, hitting .167 and has had surgery on his left knee twice. I will say this: As an avid Philadelphia Eagles fan I watched Donovan McNabb come back early from a torn ACL to play the 2007 season. He wasn't back to 100% until a full year had passed since the surgery and with that in mind, it could be that part of Powell's early struggles can be due to him playing well beofre that 1 year mark. Landon had his 2nd knee surgery in August, 07 so it might not be until the 2nd half that we see his offensive numbers rise.

AA: Anthony Recker: 24+  .289/.353/.474 (FRINGE) Good bat, weak defense and a little old for AA competition.

A: I'll lump Stockton and Kane County together because nobody on their rosters is doing anything to stand out.

Overall: This is a definite area of weakness in the organization but with Suzuki getting it done in Oakland and under team control for the next 5+ years I don't see the A's using an early draft pick on a catcher unless someone they rate very high falls in their lap. More likely the A's will target a college trained Catcher in the 4th/5th round, maybe someone like UC Davis' Jake Jefferies who's solid behind the plate and has good plate discipline. There are those who'd like to see Bowen get a shot at the starting job over Zook.

1st Base

MLB: Daric Barton (Team control through 2013); Mike Sweeney (Gone after 2008)

AAA: No prospects. Casey Rogowski is roster fill and Wes Bankston, while young enough to still have upside, hasn't shown anything since 2005.

AA: No prospects. Tommy Everidge is 25 and posting a meh-for-a-1B .829 OPS. His MLE is a sub-.600 OPS.

A+: Sean Doolittle: 21+  .337/.424/.643  14 HR (PROSPECT) With Carlos Gonzalez in Oakland, Doolittle becomes the A's top position prospect.

A-: No prospects. Sorry Greg Dowling fans, but 24 and an OPS of .744 does not a prospect make.

Overall: With Barton in Oakland and Doolittle making serious noise (plus Carter, whom I'll talk about in the DH section) the A's do not have a need to spend an early round pick on a player who projects to play 1B/DH in the Show. Let me rephrase that... it would be incredibly stupid for the A's to spend their 1st round pick on a 1st baseman no matter how good his bat. I could see them taking a shot at a bat they absolutely love if it slipped to them in the 2nd round.

2nd Base

MLB: Mark Ellis (Team control through 2008)

AAA: No prospects. Kevin Melillo was a fringe guy but with the DFA who knows where he'll be two weeks from now? Brooks Conrad is 28 and a AAAA player. Cliff Pennington will be discussed in the SS section.

AA: Jesus Guzman: 23+  .351/.400/.564 (PROSPECT) I'm not entirely sold on Guzman. He could end up at 3B but with Melillo's DFA and Ellis' pending Free Agency there's a clear path for Guzman in 2009. Justin Sellers will be discussed as a SS.

A+: No prospects. Joshua Horton is still working at SS.

A-: Larry Cobb: 22+  .330/.380/.464 (FRINGE) An athlete the A's really like, the original plan was to try to make him into a Chone Figgins clone. Looks like that plan has been shelved for now and I have a hunch that Cobb, who started the year at Stockton but couldn't buy a hit, will head back to Cali soon for round 2. He has to hit the ground running when he does or he'll lose his Fringe status.

Overall: Not as barren as it looks, 2nd base is definitely a position in transition for Oakland. All problems go away if the A's sign Ellis to an extension. Melillo was the most obvious band-aid should Ellis depart, I'm sure the A's will want to bring him back should he clear waivers. If that doesn't happen and Ellis leaves then I'm not sure what happens. Petit and maybe Murphy could get shots at the job next Spring Training, with Guzman and even Pennington being (for now) dark horse canidates as well. Yes, Pennington would be in the mix as well. Remember, a 1st round draft pick is a lot like a vampire. Until you've driven a stake through his heart AND cut off his head he's liable to pop up anywhere.

3rd Base

MLB: Eric Chavez (Team control though 2011)

AAA: Jeff Baisley: 25  .293/.372/.491 (FRINGE) Not that old, more-than-solid numbers and a rep for solid defense... so why label him a fringe prospect? Was there ever a better opportunity for Baisley to get a shot then the first two months of 2008? I could see him drawing some (small) trade interest from a 3B starved team but I don't see much of a future for Baisley in Oakland. For a borderline guy like this, sometimes it has nothing to do with what he does on the field and everything to do with circumstances beyond his control.

AA: No prospects. Jesus Guzman was covered at 2nd base but he'd certainly merit a shot here if the opportunity presented itself. Which it doesn't. Brian Snyder is a bust but he plays 3B when Guzman is elsewhere.

A: Lumping two teams together is never a good sign, it basically means I have nothing nice to say. I really, really want to like Stockton's Frank Martinez but I don't.

Overall: Deceptively strong in the upper levels, barren at the low end. The A's have a team option on Chavez for 2011, but are locked in (barring a trade) for the next two and a half years. The only way Baisley gets a shot is if Chavez goes down for an extended period of time... but that just happened and Baisley didn't get a call. Guzman has a more realistic shot at 2B but even he isn't young enough for Chavez's contract to run it's course. The only way Chavez gets traded is if the A's are willing to eat more then half his remaining guaranteed contract or if he gets healthy and produces. 'Course, Chavez gets healthy and produces Beane isn't going to trade him. I really think this is the position to target in the 1st round of the draft. If Ethan Martin is sitting there at 12... it would take an unexpected circumstance for me to choose someone else.

Shortstop

MLB: Bobby Crosby (Team control through 2009)

AAA: Gregorio Petit: 23  .304/.356/.385 (PROSPECT) I realize Petit is in Oakland now, but that's because he's filling in on the bench for an injured Donnie Murphy. Interestingly enough, I still worry about Petit's bat but have bumped his rating up (in my mind) due to Melillo's DFA. Petit has first shot at Oakland's 2nd base gig should Ellis go elsewhere and from there it's an easy enough switch to cover SS if Crosby departs a year later.

AAA: Cliff Pennington: 23+  .260/.379/.314 (AA numbers) (FRINGE) As I said before, 1st round pick = vampire. I love the speed (20 for 21 SB) and walking more then striking out but at some point a guy has to prove he can hit the damn ball. His draft status and the golden opportunity that is the A's long term middle infield situation gives Moneypenny his Fringe status.

AA: No prospects. Although I have a gut hunch that Justin Sellers will do enough to re-visit this call by the end of the year. I don't know what it is, but Sellers always does better when he and Pennington are on seperate teams.

A+: Josh Horton: 22   .293/.404/.365 (FRINGE) I'm probably being harsh with this grade but I still haven't read anything that says Horton can stick at SS long term. Good bat control, an equal number of walks to strike outs but lacking in power and a definite position. If the A's switch him to 2B this season you can say good-bye to Mark Ellis. A position switch now means the A's want to try and fast track Horton so there's a chance he'll be ready in 2009. There's an opening in Midland if the A's decide to part ways with Snyder and bump Guzman to 3B.

A-: No prospects. I want to say Michael Richard because I love his speed and on-base skills but he's 23 going on 24, has been hurt most of the season and his glove will force an eventual move to 2B or CF.

Overall: As much as I want Crosby gone, I concede that finding his imminent replacement no longer holds top priority. Now is the time to start looking though and I expect the A's to go shopping for a college trained SS in the early rounds. But that's largely because I doubt Horton... if the A's think he can stick at SS then they'll probably go after high-upside athletes and arms. Although I wonder what would happen if University of Georgia SS Gordon Beckham was still on the board at #12.

Left Field

MLB: Emil Brown (Gone after 2008)

AAA: Danny Putnam: 25+  .275/.367/.522 (FRINGE) The numbers are OK, but Putnam has been dropped from the 40-man roster and a week ago was demoted to AA. He makes the list only because Brown is a short-timer and no one else has sufficiently stepped up.

AA: No prospects. Joe Gaetti is hitting but he's too old to take serious. Maybe if he was back in AAA...

A+: No prospects. Sorry Archie, but turning 25 in July negates your A-ball performance.

A-: Shane Keough: 21+  .299/.398/.343 (FRINGE) Going out on a limb here, Keough is an athlete who's shown real improvement from last year. Needs to show more power or will get buried quickly.

Overall: Left field has a very basic requirement... hit and you'll play. Assuming Gonzalez in CF and Buck in RF, Aaron Cunningham probably has first dibs in 2009. If the A's think a college bat like Wallace could play LF they might be tempted to take him at #12 and find another stop-gap for 2009.

Center Field

MLB: Carlos Gonzalez (Team control through 2014); Ryan Sweeney (Team control through 2013)

AAA: No prospects. The A's just called up the two guys who'd been playing CF!

AA: Aaron Cunningham: 22  .333/.397/.472 (PROSPECT) He missed a month because of an early injury but he's making up for lost time. Cunningham is probably the last legit OF prospect the A's have above Low-A.

A+: Jermaine Mitchell: 23  .299/.418/.462 vs RHP (FRINGE) Sorry, but LHP eats Mitchell for lunch. I can't go higher then Fringe for a guy looking like a platoon player. He hit lefties last year but the quality of southpaw pitching he's going to face is only going to get better. He needs to adjust or he's a part time player.

A-: Corey Brown: 22  .270/.360/.486 (FRINGE) Some may think this is a bit harsh, but  Brown has 64 K in 185 at bats. He's older then most of the pitchers he faces, he spent 3 years in a Div 1 college program and he still has serious contact issues.

Overall: The A's have a lot of talented athletes playing CF in their organization but they all seem to have some kind of question mark. Still, the 2008 draft is weak in the outfield so unless the A's gamble on Hicks they probably won't be looking CF in the early parts of the draft.

Right Field

MLB: Travis Buck (Team control through 2012)

AAA: No prospects. Richie Robnett just came back from stomach surgery and while he has tools galore he's struggled with the actual hitting of the baseball.

AA: No prospects. 25 year old Jon Zeringue does not impress me.

A+: Matt Sulentic: 20  .293/.367/.503 (PROSPECT) Good but not great numbers in a hitting friendly environment, but his youth helps his numbers play up a notch. I'm not sure how good of a RF he plays but his bat should be enough to put him in contention for an eventual corner OF job in Oakland in a couple years.

A-: No prospects. Maybe I should have put Keough here.

Overall: It's Buck or Bust for the next couple years, the A's aren't going to rush Sulentic. I think Beane has enough faith in Buck that he's not going to actively seek a RF-capable bat that could move quickly through the system.

Designated Hitter

MLB: Jack Cust (Team control through 2011); Frank Thomas (Gone after 2008)

AAA/AA: The River Cats and RockHounds don't have designated DH's, they rotate their players through the slot.

A+: Chris Carter: 21  .211/.324/.447 (PROSPECT) 11 HR in 190 at bats plus his performance last year lets Carter squeak into the Prospect group. Huge power but has struggled making contact (63 K) especially recently.

A-: No prospects.

Overall: Aside from Cust, the A's are lacking in big time (as in 40+ HR potential) power threats. Carter might be one of those guys but he's got a ways to go. If the A's don't draft a pitcher with their 2nd round pick I think they go after the biggest college trained power bat they can find.

Starting Pitching

MLB: Rich Harden (Team control through 2009); Joe Blanton (Team control through 2010); Justin Duchscherer (Team control through 2009); Dana Eveland (Team control through 2013); Greg Smith (Team control through 2014); Chad Gaudin (Team control through 2010)

AAA: Gio Gonzalez: 22+  11 GS  5.37 ERA  53.2 IP  28/51 BB/K (PROSPECT) The numbers don't support the label but Gio is a legit prospect who got his bell rung a few times. 2 of his last 3 starts have been good but he still has a ways to go before he's ready for the Show.

AA: The entire starting rotation! Simmons is hurt but should be back soon, Mazzaro is having a break-out year and while Webb, Bailey and Rodriguez are all having their struggles they've still shown enough to maintain their prospect labels.

A+: Trevor Cahill: 20  11 GS  2.88 ERA  68.2 IP  20/83 BB/K (PROSPECT) The top pitching prospect in the A's system to date.

Brett Anderson: 20  10 GS  5.21 ERA  48.1 IP  14/51 BB/K (PROSPECT) Trying to pitch through a strained thumb caused Anderson to stumble a bit. He's healthy now, as his May 31st start illustrates: 4.0 IP (Pitch count) 4 H  0/6 BB/K.

(Note: Fautino De Los Santos had TJ surgery a week ago and is out until next season.)

A-: Jamie Richmond, Craig Italiano and Scott Mitchinson all warrant Fringe mention. Sorry folks, I'm starting to get tired here.

Overall: Between what's on hand in Oakland and the number of arms coming up the system, SP is the strength of the organization. Unless Crow or Matusz falls to #12 I jusy don't see the A's going after a college trained arm.

Relief Pitching

The A's have a ton of it spread from Oakland to Stockton. They'll probably grab a couple arms before the 10th round just because that's something they like to do.

Kudos to everyone who made it to the end with me. If you'll excuse me, I need a nap!

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Quick thoughts

Thanks, Grover, for this thorough update that’s quite useful for the sort of person who – like me – knows a few prospect names and stats but doesn’t go much beyond that.

Your summary reinforces what I’ve thought. I do think you take the best available, and signable, prospect with your first pick – even if that means choosing a guy who plays in a position of supposed organizational strength. But as usual, the A’s are light on hitters who have the potential to become big-league sluggers. I would really like to see the team focus on one of those guys, because those sorts of impact players seem more difficult for the A’s to find than pitchers.

by bear88 on Jun 2, 2008 12:29 AM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You're welcome

Always glad when you stop by.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Jun 2, 2008 7:35 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Great stuff.

Hi

Great, stuff. When you get a rest and are so inclined doing the bullpen would be a nice add. Another fun exercise that you might want to look at sometime (I would not know how to start) would be to see what the the 40 man roster would look like if nothing changed by the end of the season (no Blanton trade). Who would be added to 40 man and who is still young enough not to have to be added (Cahill?). How many spots are openned by Free Agents going away (Frank, Embree…) and young guys that are just not worth keeping (Gray, Herrera). On a side note, any word about Herrera? Ands if he is going to play this year.

Anyway, as always GREAT read! Thanks again

by dougald1 on Jun 3, 2008 12:27 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Question to grover.

I have noticed in the box scores from Stockton that there have been several games in which Stockton has played Doolittle in Left and Carter in right. Do you make anything of this?

If so, do you have any information on how well they have played defensively, positions other than 1B?

by TheRaiderWay on Jun 2, 2008 1:00 AM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Doolittle has held his own in the OF

Last night was the first time I had noticed Carter playing in the OF.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Jun 2, 2008 7:35 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Not to speak for Grover, but...

...one of the things I’ve noticed in my wandering around the Cal League is a number of teams have a few players they will stick in different positions occasionally. I’ve seen Lancaster use Jorge Jimenez at 3B and 1B and Jon Still at C and 1B, for example. Stockton’s rotated Carter and Doolittle between DH and 1B a lot because they’re both basically 1B now, but I’m not sure if this is the first time Carter’s played the OF.

I chalk it up to one of those things where organizations just want some of their players to be a little more versatile instead of having them play one position the whole time. It can’t hurt.

Last of the Ninth - Photography Site
jamesvenes.com - Blog

by Flashfire on Jun 2, 2008 7:39 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

re

Good stuff Grover. Don’t get why you’re so high on Martin as a 3b. Nobody else seems to like his bat nearly that much. If the A’s are looking at an infield bat, I think Lawrie is a lot more interesting.

Is Jermaine Mitchell batting zero against LHP? Are half the pitchers in A+ left handed? How the hell can his overall numbers come down so far from his sterling numbers vs RHP? Although actually, finding out about this split is kind of encouraging. His overall numbers say fringe certainly, but if he can hit righties, he can be useful.

Craig Italiano has 36 straight scoreless innings, and has given up 1 run in his last 51 innings. A report a few weeks ago had him touching 97 in the sixth inning. He’s way far away, and his numbers other than strikeouts and hits allowed aren’t encouraging, but he’s certainly a “prospect”.

Corey Brown is a big big disappointment so far. When the hell is Desme getting on the field? Nice to see Hamblin and Robnett back. I’m not ready to give up on Robnett. He finally started showing the power last year. If he puts that with the previous years’ patience, he can get interesting quickly. I’m still holding out some hope for him and Powell both.

Anthony Recker is having a fun season.

by 31Boots on Jun 2, 2008 1:07 AM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Agreed,

there’s no way Italiano is a “fringe” player. Had a freak injury that shut him down last season by getting hit in the skull by a baseball, and the A’s have been cautious with him. He is without a doubt the most dominate pitcher in his league and is long overdue for a promotion.

"Mommy and Daddy are going to take a nap before the baseball game starts..."

by Devyn on Jun 2, 2008 1:32 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Martin

Coming into the season scouts really liked Martin as a 3B, his blossoming as a SP has shifted their focus. That doesn’t mean they like him any less as a 3B, hust that they can now project him as a top tier SP.

Mitchell is batting 173/259/231 vs LHP.

Italiano is a prospect, but he’s gotten a lot of inexperienced hitters to chase pitches more experienced batters will lay off, his control is still an issue, he could get shut down early because he’s pitched so few innings the past two years AND I’m pretty sure the A’s are going to keep him in Low-A for most of the season to protect him from trying to do too much. (Yep, I just bought him a ticket to Stockton with that comment!) Thus the Fringe call.

No idea on Desme.

Robnett’s got the same problem Brown does… all the tools, struggles to control the strike zone.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Jun 2, 2008 7:42 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Uh...

There’s no way Italiano is merely fringe – first round pedigree, mid 90s heat, very little pro experience yet unbelievably dominating numbers, age appropriate for league, huge career K rate, freak injury last year not related to pitching.

The fact that the A’s will keep in low-A for most of the year should have no bearing on what kind of a prospect is. Furthermore, your bare conclusory statement regarding the ability of his stuff to work at higher levels is not supported by anything I’ve seen or read.

If he continues his dominance and couples it with a few successful starts in Stockton at the end of the year he’ll profile strikingly similarly to DLS did going into this season, and certainly will rank among the top 5 (if not 3) pitchers in the A’s system.

by NRC on Jun 2, 2008 6:01 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

My reply

Italiano was a 2nd round pick in 2005. He was not a 1st round pick.

He turns 22 in July, which is actually a little old for Low-A.

He missed most of 2006 due to a torn labrum. He missed part of 2007 recovering from that injury then got hit by a line drive. In 2006/2007 he combined for 35 IP, which is why I think the A’s will move him slowly and shut him down early this year.

The comment I made regarding Italiano struggling if promoted comes from A’s farm director Keith Lieppman. Here’s the direct quote he gave Scout.com:

We have to worry about limiting Italiano a little bit. He has been pitching so well and we really don’t want to give him that many innings this season. He’s only thrown 36 innings over the past two years, so there is going to come a point where at about 100 innings, or somewhere in that area, he’s not going to be able to pitch more than that. We don’t want to over-do it with him this season.

Italiano is commanding the ball a lot better now. Early in the season, the numbers were a little deceiving. He was a little bit off, but he was still getting a lot of swings and misses. Now, he is really executing a lot better.

All my grades are based on 2007 data and the first two months of 2008, these are not etched in stone but they are how I feel at the present.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Jun 2, 2008 7:28 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Desme has a wrist injury

Those are always tricky to heal. I think they’ve just written off last year and will start him on the normal progression from Vancouver this season.

I have to say (see below for “defense of Corey Brown” rant) that I’m somewhat puzzled by your affections. Desme, Hamblin and Robnett are basically the same kind of hitter as Corey Brown—they’re all-or-nothing sluggers who, as they say, don’t get cheated on their swings. The difference is that they don’t have his speed, or play a key defensive position. So… why is Robnett (picked higher than Brown) not the “big, big disappointment”?

Look, if Brown was a perfect 5-tool college CF with no weak spots, he would not have been available at the 59th pick, I don’t care HOW many coeds he was caught with.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jun 2, 2008 9:49 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

He was almost exclusively a RF when I saw him a lot...

...in Stockton in 2005. If that’s changed, I don’t recall.

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by Flashfire on Jun 2, 2008 10:24 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Not bloody likely

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jun 2, 2008 10:44 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

actually, he was listed by Scout.com

as a centerfielder. I think that might have been from when he was drafted. The Rivercats have him listed as a right fielder on their roster.

by OaklandSi on Jun 2, 2008 2:50 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

re

I don’t like those guys more than Brown. Brown is a disappointment because I expect more from him. He takes the strikeouts to an entirely different level. He’s striking out in almost 10% more ABs in low A than Robnett did in AA last year. There’s no way he’s going to be able to sustain a batting average as he moves up unless he cuts down significantly. He can barely do so now. I am encouraged by the power he’s showing, and I do recognize that Kane County is where hitting prospects go to die, so, ftr, I do still think he’s a “prospect”, certainly, but from his numbers, he’s justifying McKamey’s preseason 9D ranking.

by 31Boots on Jun 2, 2008 10:27 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Why do you expect more from him?

He’s a talented but raw athlete. Despite being a college player, he lacked polish as of last season’s draft. His performance thusfar (lots of talent, lots of screwups) is exactly what (I would think) one would expect out of that kind of player.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jun 2, 2008 10:43 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

re

I expect him not to strikeout in 35% of his at-bats. I don’t care how raw he is, that percentage is outrageous. It would be outrageous in AAA.

by 31Boots on Jun 2, 2008 11:02 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

And yet he's still hitting for average...

High K’s is bad, but high BABIP is good (suggests good bat speed, which syncs with his scouting reports).

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jun 2, 2008 12:22 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

BTW Georgia boy

I’m a lifelong A’s fan living in GA too. Nice to know there’s at least two of us.

by samljm on Jun 2, 2008 7:42 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Nice to know there are others...

everyone always looks at my A’s hats funny and ask why my Braves hat looks so weird.

by GeorgiaBoy on Jun 2, 2008 1:03 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I could envision

An outfield of Buck, Gonzales, and Sweeney over the next couple of years. Especially if 1) they stay healthy, and 2) develop a little power (I believe Sweeney will be at least a 15-20 HR hitter, maybe more). It would be a pretty good defensive OF anyway.

by samljm on Jun 2, 2008 7:38 AM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Good work

A lot of usefull information packed in there, just a couple points I wanted to make.

“it would be incredibly stupid for the A’s to spend their 1st round pick on a 1st baseman no matter how good his bat.”

The A’s haven’t had a real dangerous impact bat in the middle of the order for a while now. Cust and Thomas are nice but they both have their flaws at this point in there careers. I would think that if the A’s had a chance to draft a polished hitter who projects to average, power, and patience I think it would be incredibly stupid to pass on him just because he can only play 1B.

And as for Corey Brown, I find it a little harsh to label him “Fringe” while Chris Carter is “Prospect”. Both have tremendous power and serious contact issues. Carter is younger and at a higher level, but he has also been in pro ball longer and is stretched defensively at even first base. I think the fact that Brown is a legit CF and only 2 months into his first full year of pro ball makes him at least as good a prospect as Carter at this point.

by DiegoAsFan on Jun 2, 2008 9:00 AM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Curious about 1B comment as well

With Barton as the main road block at this point, and never likely to hit for much power, and hardly Keith Hernandez (or Carlos Pena) on the field, I’m not sure why we’d be allergic to finding a great 1B prospect. Sure, I’m high on Carter given the start, but I don’t think I understand your (Grover’s) reasoning.

Thanks a ton for the diary—very enjoyable and informative, and indeed, swimming in your newfound fracking maturity.

by DiegoSegui on Jun 2, 2008 11:28 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The 1B comment

With CarGon in Oakland, the best position prospect in the system is Sean Doolittle. Yes Doolittle has moonlighted in the OF on occasion but the scouts all say he’s destined for 1B.

So Barton + Doolittle + Carter means (to me) that 1st base is covered for at least the next half decade.

The biggest bats in this year’s draft play 1B. Name me one of those guys (likely to be available at #12 and not be a reach) who could play a passable LF and I’ll listen. But a 1B/DH only at #12? There are greater needs in the organization.

Carter vs. Brown. Carter almost got a Fringe label but I figured his 2007 success earned him a bit of a mulligan in that he’s shown that he can adjust and thrive. Brown hasn’t really done that.

It was a close call in both cases.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Jun 2, 2008 7:37 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Another great one grover!

Thanks for the updates, I learned a lot.

"I don't know half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve."

--Bilbo Baggins

by kaweahkaweah on Jun 2, 2008 9:08 AM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Welcome

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Jun 2, 2008 7:37 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Calling Corey Brown "fringe" is ridiculous

He has a lot of strikeouts. He went through a savage slump over the latter half of May. And his numbers aren’t eye-poppingly ridiculous.

That being said, a. he’s leading his team in HR, b. he (last time I checked) had 5 steals and no CS, c. isn’t actually old for his league (22 is median, not ancient) and d. most importantly, is ridiculously talented.

Basically, to call him “fringe,” you have to ignore everything that’s been written about him by any scout anywhere, as well as his actual batting line, and focus solely on strikeouts.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jun 2, 2008 9:33 AM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I think a big part of the problem ...

is that he’s painting with some pretty wide brushes …

By my count, Grover IDed 13 guys as “Prospects”. I think he’s overstating the case for the Midland rotation. Simmons is going to be a good pitcher and H-Rod will bounce back but, based on my perceptions of what his ratings mean, I’d say the other three should probably be fringe (I’m not even sure that Webb should be considered Fringe).

I think most would call Brown somewhere in the neighborhood of 10th-12th in the organization and if you drop Mazzaro, Webb and Bailey below him, as I’d suggest should be the case , that’s about where he would fall based on Grover’s appraisal.

I’m not going to rehash the argument about whether you overrate Brown or not—we’ve had it before, don’t need to have it again. I just wanted to point out that, although grover’s chosen terminology I would say is misleading, his appraisal really isn’t much different from the norm.

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Jun 2, 2008 12:02 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Mazzaro is not a high-ceiling player

but he projects pretty well as a mid-rotation starter. I would definitely call him a prospect. His “stuff” is probably not on Simmons’ level, and certainly his control isn’t (but whose is?), but I think he has more good pitches.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jun 2, 2008 12:26 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Low strikeout rate (for the level)

no track record of success.

I’m not saying he’s not a prospect—but I do think he’s behind several people that grover calls ‘fringe’ so, based on the system grover laid out, he’s fringe.

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Jun 2, 2008 3:14 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

He doesn't have

a track record of dominance, like Cahill does.

On the other hand, his ERA from last season (age 20) was only slightly above league-average for the CA league. He had some control issues (I gather this is a common problem for sinkerballers, cf Chad Gaudin) but he seems to have improved that area a lot this year. And he’s consistently been able to keep the ball on the ground.

He looks a lot like a young Saarloos (2002-2005 edition) which isn’t very exciting, but is still pretty valuable to a franchise. And given his age, he’s still a bit projectable.

I would put him in front of all of the grover “fringe” pitchers, and comparing him to hitters is kind of apples and oranges.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jun 2, 2008 3:33 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Most pitchers who are BELOW average in A-ball ...

don’t have much of an MLB future ahead of them. He doesn’t strike guys out, he doesn’t get a lot of ground balls, it’s nice that he’s not walking that many guys anymore but there really isn’t much to like in his statistical profile …

Chad Gaudin was in AAA, coming off a solid MLB stint the previous season and sporting a career MiLB era of 2.06 entering his third professional season.

Kirk Saarloos also reached the Majors in his second professional season (though, unlike Mazzaro and Gaudin, he was a college draftee, so he was older than Mazzaro at this point) and had a 1.45 MiLB era.

I wouldn’t write him off completely at this point … but, statistically, there really isn’t much of any reason to like him.

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Jun 2, 2008 4:16 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Doesn't get a lot of ground balls?

Are you looking at the right guy?

Mazzaro has had GB:FB ratios of about 1.9:1 for the last two seasons.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jun 2, 2008 5:20 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

According to Minorleaguesplits

in 2008:
106 GB
40 LD
40 FB
12 PU

106/92
1.15—about average.

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Jun 2, 2008 5:25 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Ah ... I see the difference ...

He has a GO:AO ratio of about 1.9:1 … which means that batters have a .438 BABIP on fly balls, compared to a .057 BABIP on ground balls this season … that’s downright staggering …

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Jun 2, 2008 5:52 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

That can't be right

"Tomorrow it may rain." - Leo Durocher

by andeux on Jun 2, 2008 6:03 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Clearly the data are coming from different sources

and becoming garbled together at some point.

I’ll try and figure this out later.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jun 2, 2008 6:17 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

FWIW

MILB.com lists a GO/AO of 1.97 for 2007 with Stockton and 1.89 so far this season with Midland.

Checking the numbers Devo found, it makes me wonder if the stat on MILB.com comes close to only counting fly balls and pop-ups and not line drives, even though line drives are technically an “air out.” If you only take the 52 total FB/PU you get 106/52 or 2.03, though even there that’s a bit off from the 1.89 on MILB.com. Add in their 9 “unknowns” which they say are generally outfield errors and you get 106/61 or 1.73. That’s too low.

Who knows? Not I.

Last of the Ninth - Photography Site
jamesvenes.com - Blog

by Flashfire on Jun 2, 2008 6:33 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

There's a bit of rounding going on ...

but the math is right … they’re numbers might not be …

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Jun 2, 2008 8:36 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I see the confusion

I wasn’t clear on the part about the Midland staff. They are all “prospects” not PROSPECTS although I’m inclined to rate Mazzaro the highest score since he’s having a break-out year. Simmons would have gotten a PROSPECT rating except for the fact that he’s not currently pitching. Rodriguez is getting his ass-kicked, I hesitate to give him the full PROSPECT label until he can at least hurt the other guy a bit more.

Sorry I wasn’t clearer, but I was fading quick at that point.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Jun 2, 2008 7:49 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I think it's pretty silly to focus that intensely on the last month or so of play ...

Henry Rodriguez was very good in A ball and dominant in high-A. While he may be walking more than a batter an inning AND giving up more than a hit an inning (I know …), at least he’s also striking out more than a batter an inning.

Simmons is just clearly better than Mazzaro in every way. He doesn’t have the upside that H-Rod does, but he has better stuff than Mazzaro, a superior statistical profile and a strong track record.

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Jun 2, 2008 8:48 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

And I would have rated Simmons higher then Mazzaro except...

Simmons isn’t pitching right now.

Not playing is a big thing with me.

Rodriguez has been beaten like a red-headed step-child in AA. I agree with everything you say about his combined A-ball performance but I can’t ignore a WHIP well over 2.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Jun 2, 2008 9:05 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Would you really trade Mazzaro for Simmons right now?

If so, I no longer endorse you to be BB’s eventual replacement …

I would trade DLS for Mazzaro right now … in a heartbeat …some guys are real MLB pitchers. Some guys might be but probably aren’t …

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Jun 2, 2008 9:42 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Did you mean to phrase that trade proposal that way?

Would I trade Mazzaro, who’s pitching well in AA at 22 years old for a pitcher who isn’t healthy enough to pitch right now? And you’d be pissed if I did?

Who wouldn’t be pissed if I traded a healthy and productive pitcher for someone on the DL?

This does not compute with your earlier comments.

Would I trade Simmons for Mazzaro right now? No. But since I have both of them, this isn’t an issue. Mazzaro has solid stuff and is having a good 2008 thus far. As much as I like Simmons I won’t ignore the fact that he is currently unavailable to pitch. The A’s say this is a short term thing but given Oakland’s track record of being oh so forthcoming about injuries, until Simmons is pitching again I’m going to scale back the positive vibes.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Jun 2, 2008 10:02 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Simmons just has "dead arm"

as opposed to the usual bugaboos for minor (and major) league pitchers, viz. shoulder strain, oblique strain, sprained UCL, forearm strain, etc etc.

He should be fine.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jun 2, 2008 10:54 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I agree

However, until he returns he’s a question mark.

The A’s say he should only miss a couple starts. OK, that means he should be back real soon. What if it takes longer then expected for him to come back? I’m just trying to be conservative with Green Lighting his return. Getting a dead arm at this time of the year is a little unusual. It’s common during ST if this was August it would make more sense.

This happened in May. I want to see Simmons back on the mound before I raise his grade.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Jun 2, 2008 11:21 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I think it happened to Nate Robertson last year...

pretty early in the season.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jun 2, 2008 11:51 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The problem I have with this is that ratings are pretty pointless ...

if there’s a good chance they are going to change in 3 weeks …

Knowing that they are not pitching right now … and knowing that I don’t care whether or not they help Midland win a Texas League Championship, I would rather have Simmons or DLS who are sitting on my Disabled List in the minors than Mazzaro who is healthy and pitching. Despite health issues, they are considerably more likely to have a worthwhile impact for the big league club than Mazzaro.

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Jun 3, 2008 10:03 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Well, I can't please everyone

Guess today’s not your day.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Jun 3, 2008 8:49 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

+1

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Jun 2, 2008 2:13 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I forgot how much you love Brown

But you’re flat wrong about the whole “ignore everything that’s been written about him” bit. In fact, it was two recent scouting reports that tipped the scale against Brown.

Sickels and I think Goldstein saw Brown in person and they both said the same thing: Corey Brown struggles to hit breaking balls, even cripple pitches over the plate when he’s ahead in the count. He swings over curves and change-ups, even bad ones, and it puzzles these guys why he’s missing. These are pitches he should be crushing and he’s flat missing.

They love that Brown can hit anyone’s best fastball but he’s missing mediocre breaking stuff in Low-A. I’m sorry PT, but the offspeed stuff doesn’t get easier as you move up the food chain. I’m not panicing over the K’s (yet) but guys who have seen him and know what they’re talking about have raised some red flags that I can’t ignore.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Jun 2, 2008 7:43 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Sickels's wording

Corey Brown: good-looking athlete, patient, works the count, tends to swing over breaking balls and changeups even when ahead. Power to all fields, very good speed.

Hardly a damning indictment.

I mean, it’s a flaw in his game. It’s a pretty simple flaw to correct—identify offspeed, then swing lower than he ordinarily would. (Note I said “simple,” not “easy.”) But a flaw.

I just find it odd that he’s getting hammered so hard for it.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jun 2, 2008 7:52 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yes, a damning flaw if he can't correct it

He’s missing cripple breaking balls in the strike zone, until he starts to hit those in Low-A you’re going to have to live with Fringe.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Jun 2, 2008 7:57 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

lots of good work here grover

- I agree with bear 88 that it would be very surprising if Martin was drafted to be anything other than a pitcher

- I see Sulentic as headed for LF or nothing

- Italiano is not fringe, in the sense that it looks like his non-injury floor is that of a dominant reliever, someone who will not be left off the 40-man once he needs protecting. Mitchinson is intriguing.

- nice catch of Mitchell’s LHP/RHP splits

- any one else notice how good Lansford has been in these 2 and 3 inning relief stints?

- Brown could go either way right now. The nice thing is that his tools and power do translate to XBH and hard hit balls. He is seventh in the 16 team league in OPS. Once again, pitching is way ahead of hitting in that league.

- I pretty much agree regarding the organizational needs. What I don’t know, is whether there are middle-infielders in Latin America worth big bucks. If so, this seems like the time, due to the tiny MLB payroll and single first/supplemental pick we have, to spend heavily on Latin America.

- draftwise, maybe reaching for Lawrie, I wouldn’t curse if we got Alonso or Wallace, I’m happy with Hicks and Martin, whichever the scouting staff likes better, though I think they are both SPs at this point. I’d love to get a chance at any of Beckham, Beckham, Posey, Skipworth, Alvarez, Matusz, Crow, or Hosmer, not counting on it though.

by jakarta on Jun 2, 2008 9:35 AM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Response

Sulentic is playing RF for now so that’s where I dropped him.

Italiano is Fringe per my reply to NRC.

Lansford has been lights out.

I know nothing about scouting in Latin America.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Jun 2, 2008 7:52 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It's seems pretty pointless to differentiate between LF and RF ...

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Jun 2, 2008 8:51 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Sure

But I had to break everyone down somehow.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Jun 2, 2008 9:06 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

CarGon not considered a right fielder??!!

I can’t agree with part of you’re analysis. You have Buck as the long term solution in right field, and CarGon as the long term solution in center, but I really feel you have both these players out of place.

Buck doesn’t have the arm to play right field, and the only reason he is there now is the fact that Emil Brown’s defense is just above the “pathetic” line. Next year, when Brown is gone, I fully expect to see Buck moved to left field where he will be a better fit in the long term.

As for GarGon, most scouts agree, while he is passable in center now, within a year or two as he develops the power we all expect he’ll have he’ll slow down to the point that wont be an option. That means he’s better off in right field where his cannon arm will play well.

The A’s long term solution in center will have to be Sweeny (if he can find and keep his power stroke), one of Robnet/Herrera/Cunningham/Brown/Desme, or an undrafted prospect. In a perfect world Herrera would get healthy and put everything together to give the A’s that right handed power bat with gold glove D in center, but I think Sweeny and Cunningham might be the more likely candidates at this point.

Sometimes life will strike you out on a curve ball and the only choice you have is to flip off the umpire and walk to first base anyway.

by Threepwood XX on Jun 2, 2008 9:58 AM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

sure

Buck can handle right field, but he’d be better in left. Cust in LF is still worth it if means you have a great DH. Carlos probably is the RF of the next six years, but who the heck knows. Putnam could need to get called up and hold his own in LF for a couple of years, Cunningham could force his way in to the bigs, Brown could develop quickly, Sulentic could force himself to be considered the LF/RF/DH of the future, Carter could claim the DH role for his own. Barton could start hitting well along with Doolittle staying on the fast track, making it seem like the best course to play both of them.

We could wind up with a glut of guys with a future lineup determined by what other teams want to give us for the guys they think are suitable/projectable/the right price.

by jakarta on Jun 2, 2008 10:17 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Herrera?

Guy can’t even stay on the field. He’s missed 6 months with a pulled hamstring.

He’s more Rocco Baldelli than BJ Upton, if you catch my drift.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jun 2, 2008 10:54 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Why stop there?

We should also check on his endoplasmic reticulum

I am Ray Fosse's man crushes for Clay Wood and Jason Kendall.

by franks a lot on Jun 2, 2008 11:09 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'd agree on most everything you said about the positions

Here’s the thing…

Right now CarGon is playing CF for Oakland and Buck is in RF. I’m just keeping things simple.

Forget Herrera, Cunningham may be the best bet (in-house) although Mitchell can cover CF. I want Mitchell in CF but his platoon splits are an issue.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Jun 2, 2008 7:54 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

first timer

hey im an oakland fan out in new jersey who kinda follows from afar but looking to follow this team closer now. is this the best site to be following, any other good oakland blogs?

thanks
flitzy

by captain flitzy on Jun 2, 2008 10:05 AM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

This is a great site--it has a knowledgeable and devoted membership

Welcome aboard!

"I don't know half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve."

--Bilbo Baggins

by kaweahkaweah on Jun 2, 2008 10:38 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

NY A's fan here

This is by far the best A’s site – great discussions like this one are common. I would advise against a fanpost extolling the virtues of clutch hitting, suggesting that the A’s turn to more sacrifice bunting, or recommending a longterm contract for Emil Brown. If you follow those few simple rules, all should go well!

by boilerdan on Jun 2, 2008 11:34 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

What about

If Crosby played for the Yankee’s, he’d be a hall of famer?

by As Fan in the Bronx on Jun 4, 2008 10:03 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

System chart

This seems like an appropriate place to mention that I maintain a complete chart of everyone (as far as I know) in the A’s system. It’s different than what grover is doing here, as I make to attempt to distinguish among prospects/fringe/filler players, but it’s a good way of seeing at a glance where everyone is playing right now.

"Tomorrow it may rain." - Leo Durocher

by andeux on Jun 2, 2008 11:08 AM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

thanks andeux

I have this bookmarked and check it from time to time,and I invariably find that there are a few guys I have forgotten about in the system. You also do a bang-up job updating it promptly.

by jakarta on Jun 2, 2008 11:23 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

That's definitely a link I bookmarked

It’s always updated promptly and has as good, accurate info as there is to find. Keep up the good work andeux!

"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton

by vignette17 on Jun 2, 2008 12:33 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

bookmarked

i didn’ t know you did this.
btw, i get a few of these black diamond question mark symbols with firefox: �

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Jun 2, 2008 2:18 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Black diamond question marks?

They’re ungroomed and intended for experts only?

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jun 2, 2008 3:34 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Sweet

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Jun 2, 2008 7:58 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Why are some names italicized?

AN 3.0's Search Function is *hawt*!

by Poppy on Jun 3, 2008 3:05 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

40 man roster

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on Jun 3, 2008 3:09 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Ah! Thanks.

AN 3.0's Search Function is *hawt*!

by Poppy on Jun 3, 2008 3:13 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

once a certain Kane Co player gets promoted ...

... we’ll have to call it italianocized.

Who has Cust love, besides us? @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jun 3, 2008 3:26 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

He won't get that far.

Billy’s on a crusade against my people. Mazzaro and Gaetti are next to go.

AN 3.0's Search Function is *hawt*!

by Poppy on Jun 3, 2008 3:52 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You've seen through Beane's ploy

Once he’s done, the entire roster will consist solely of Irishmen and Hawaiian Japanese. And one guy who’s not Mexican enough.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jun 3, 2008 4:15 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Don't forget the Cajuns.

AN 3.0's Search Function is *hawt*!

by Poppy on Jun 3, 2008 4:20 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

A couple of other disagreements

A+: Josh Horton: 22 .293/.404/.365 (FRINGE) I’m probably being harsh with this grade but I still haven’t read anything that says Horton can stick at SS long term.

I don’t know why, because I have. What I’ve read seems to be split about evenly on his long-term SS prospects.

Also, Leon is definitely a prospect as a starter. He’s been working in relief to limit his innings (I imagine he’ll be starting for Saltillo this summer). To do what he’s been able to do in hitters’ leagues at age 18-19… it’s terrifically exciting. There isn’t a more projectable player in the entire organization, and there aren’t many in all of baseball.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jun 2, 2008 12:43 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Paul

what about the other guys the A’s signed this off season? Was’nt there a young Centerfielder or something that the A’s paid pretty well to get?

by asfaninpismobeach on Jun 2, 2008 6:37 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Robin Rosario

Got a six figure bonus, at any rate. Over $200,000 I think.

He supposedly has a 70 arm on the scouting scale, but he’s a year or two away from coming to the American minor leagues.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jun 2, 2008 7:46 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You'll have to cut me some slack on Horton

I don’t know what you’re reading, but I haven’t seen any 2008 scouting reports that say one way or the other re: his defense. So link me what you’ve got and I’ll read it. I’m human, I miss things.

Leon may be a prospect as a SP but he hasn’t started any games in Stockton and therefore did not qualify for that list. If I had had the energy to write out the relief prospects I’d have included him.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Jun 2, 2008 8:01 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I would have, but I can't for the life of me remember where I read it...

I do remember it though, because coming into the season I was also thinking he was bound for second base, and distinctly recall being surprised by the favorable reports on his SS play.

Leon: it’s just the innings limits that are confusing things. The A’s definitely see him as a starter long-term, but (following the usual upward progression) he’s likely scheduled to throw only 90-100 innings this season.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jun 2, 2008 8:36 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Not calling you a liar PT

But if I can’t read the source material I don’t feel comfortable using the info.

As for Leon, doesn’t he head back to Mexico soon?

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Jun 2, 2008 9:09 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Fair...

I wish I could recall, but I just don’t have a clue.

I’ll try a google search. Hang about.

Leon is indeed headed to Mexico soonish. It will be interesting to see how his Mexican League team deploys him. Since they’re more in “win now” mode, he may stay a reliever for another season.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jun 2, 2008 9:20 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Sigh

Can’t find anything.

Oh well. Back to hockey.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jun 2, 2008 9:32 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Found this

“The A’s Class A Stockton team visited the Coliseum. Pitcher Arnold Leon said he must return to his summer league team in Mexico on June 15; he’ll be entirely Oakland’s property at the conclusion of this summer. Leon said he’s not sure if he’ll play winter ball in Mexico this offseason.”

Link

Last of the Ninth - Photography Site
jamesvenes.com - Blog

by Flashfire on Jun 2, 2008 10:11 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Thanks

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Jun 2, 2008 10:31 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Welcome

I was about to say he was done in Stockton at the end of May and last pitched on the 30th but I checked to be sure and found that.

Then he ended up getting into tonight’s game on top of that.

Last of the Ninth - Photography Site
jamesvenes.com - Blog

by Flashfire on Jun 2, 2008 11:31 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Way to breal the 100 comment barrier!

Yay baseball talk!

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Jun 2, 2008 11:33 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Baseball America on Horton

Baseballamerica says on Horton’s fielding “has a chance to stay at shortstop, though his range will never be anything more than average. Horton has solid-average arm strength”, so not a stunning vote of confidence.

This was a great read, thanks

by dougald1 on Jun 3, 2008 12:13 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Sounds like Jeff Keppinger defense

The question is, can he play Jeff Keppinger offense?

The upside is there, but I don’t know how likely he is to hit it.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jun 3, 2008 3:27 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Maybe I wasn't clear

You’re quoting BA’s 2008 Prospect Handbook, that’s a preseason scouting report. I haven’t seen anything that talks about his defensive play in 2008. That’s what I’m looking for.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Jun 3, 2008 8:47 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I just wanted to say; great use of “frak”. Sometimes, it’s handy to have when you don’t want to actually curse.

by KakesForROY on Jun 2, 2008 5:55 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Oh I wanted to curse!

Believe me I wanted to, but i try to refrain when I’m writing on the Front Page.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Jun 2, 2008 8:02 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

So what's up with H-Rod?

Obviously, the control is an issue again. I’m wondering, is it something he can work through, or is it something that’s going to relegate him to the bullpen in the future (or even derail his career)?

"We were s--, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."

by lenscrafters on Jun 2, 2008 6:39 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Couple things of note

Just thought I’d add to the discussion.

I love Landon Powell, but he’s really struggling. Not only is he striking out at a high frequency, but I’ve been tracking him and his K’s seem to have come in large bunches lately. He has 17 K’s in his last 11 games. He also had a pretty long hitless streak just now. But he went 2-5 last game, maybe he’ll build on it. Anyway, the standout thing for me is his incredibly low BABIP, which sits at a measly .188. Thats just gotta go up. In turn, everything else will go up too, as he’s still showing a good isoP. He’s still a prospect to me, especially since he’s considered very advanced both as a hitter and a defender. Once he rights the ship, i don’t think it will be long before he’s in the majors.

Craig Italiano is a great prospect: He hasn’t given up an earned run in 36 straight innings, and just one in his last 46. You have to have a special kind of arm to be able to do that. Yes, he’s still struggling a bit with walks, at 4.11/9 innings, and he doesn’t pitch more than 5 innings usually. But he’s striking out over 11K/9. Incidentally, righties are much better against him than lefties, with an OPS 250 points above lefties (in roughly equal innings) at .597. Still domination though. To me that shows vast improvement on his changeup. I think he’s actually still on a pitch count around 80 as well, which would explain why he is not pitching deep, as he usually has only given up 4-5 baserunners when he comes out of the game. Anyway, that was kind of a ramble, but the point is that I have high hopes for this guy.

More Tidbits: Aaron Cunningham has an astounding 33% line drive percentage. That explains why his average has gone up to over .330. Hopefully some of those drives hit the gaps, as his power is totally fueled by his average right now.

Anthony Recker sucked in April, but a .981 OPS in May brought his overall line to 290/356/472/828. He’s also hitting a peachy 28% line drives, which fuels his abnormally high .400 BABIP. The guy is so strong though and has been making consistent hard contact. So in my eyes he’s still a prospect too. If he keeps it up, he’ll find himself in AAA, and there are worse things than being a 25 year old catcher in AAA. Cause as far as I know, catcher development is longer due to defensive demands. Same goes for Powell.

I keep waiting for Ryan Webb to truly break out once his projectability becomes reality. One of the two has happened. Accounts say his fastball has finally added that velocity so that he’s in the low-mid 90’s, which also hopefully signifies a tighter breaking ball. So far in AA this year he’s not exactly tearing it up, and his strikeout rate is not exceptional at around 6.5K/9. He’s still too hittable as well, giving up more hits then innings pitched alone. But he has a 4.7 ERA in AA, and he’s still only 22 years old, which is essential to his prospect status. I still have moderately high hopes for him.

Gio Gonzalez is walking way too many people. I’m starting to think he needs to be shut down and given a full body MRI or something. Currently through 2 innings he’s given up 4 runs to Colorado Springs

Sean Doolittle is OPSing over 1000 versus lefties and righties. Good stuff.

the problem is not "too many left handed hitters" but "too many suck handed hitters"-Zonis

by ohad on Jun 2, 2008 6:54 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Italiano

A’s farm director Keith Lippman urges caution re: Italiano.

Who are you to argue with him?

;-)

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Jun 2, 2008 8:04 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Caution

Thats pretty much exactly why I was arguing that he was more than a fringe prospect. I’d say he’s battling Brett Anderson for the number 2 pitching prospect that Oakland has. Italiano is clearly more risky, but has the higher upside.

the problem is not "too many left handed hitters" but "too many suck handed hitters"-Zonis

by ohad on Jun 2, 2008 8:29 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Erm

Gio may be scuffling right now, but he’s definitely a better prospect than Italiano. Ditto Simmons. And as I said earlier, I’d rate Mazzaro ahead of him.

Higher upside for Italiano is more than counterbalanced by the far higher chance of just reaching the majors that the other three have, given that they’ve surmounted the “AA hump”.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jun 2, 2008 8:40 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Gonzalez slipped my mind

And even though he sucks crucially right now, he’s still young. I like Simmons, but the upside is not as high, and I’m pretty worried about this arm fatigue stuff, seeing as they’ve been EXTREMELY cautious with him since he was drafted.

Mazzaro is not comparable for me. They were drafted in the same year. Mazzaro sucked in Kane County for a full season and got promoted. He then sucked in Stockton and got promoted. He’s off to a good start this year with solid peripherals, but doesn’t strike out enough people and doesn’t get that many ground balls (53% GB). So what gives? What did he figure out? I’m not sold on his performance yet, and Italiano’s upside pretty much covers any doubts I might have about Mazzaro. I don’t think it can be stressed enough: Italiano is flat out demolishing the Midwest League. 1 earned run in almost 50 innings? Thats insane. I have no idea when was the last time that an A’s pitcher so thoroughly dominated his competition. You can’t teach that potential, but you can teach smart pitching and you can refine your pitches. It genuinely looks like Italiano has done that.

the problem is not "too many left handed hitters" but "too many suck handed hitters"-Zonis

by ohad on Jun 2, 2008 9:06 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

53% GB percentage is very high

It’s about the 87th percentile (in a good way) among qualified MLB starting pitchers. Here’s the list of guys with better GB%:

Carmona
Webb
Cook
Hudson
Halladay
Contreras
Lowe
Lannan
Jimenez
Wang
Volquez
D. Cabrera

I mean, that’s a pretty f’ing good list there…

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jun 2, 2008 9:27 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Hmm

I was under the impression that 53% was slightly above average. Do you have those numbers for the minor leagues?

the problem is not "too many left handed hitters" but "too many suck handed hitters"-Zonis

by ohad on Jun 3, 2008 12:27 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

No it's not ...

among pitchers who have thrown at least 60 innings, he would be tied for 59th of 99 in MLB with a 1.15 GB/FB

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Jun 3, 2008 1:01 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The GB/FB stat doesn't count line drives

By your numbers above, it would be 2.04 (106/52), putting him in the same spot on Paul’s list.

However, a glance at the minor league leaderboards indicates that GB%s go down somewhat at higher levels, ending in MLB, so it’s not too impressive.

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on Jun 3, 2008 1:41 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

ah ... gotcha ... that makes sense ...

So he’s a little better than I was giving him credit for—but if he only has one real talent and he’s merely good, but not great at that, I remain unimpressed.

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Jun 3, 2008 2:28 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yup,

I’d say his upside is Saarloos and his middle-side is not making the majors.

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on Jun 3, 2008 2:41 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Huh.

I have to confess, I’m kind of mystified here.

I mean, I’m anything but an age-relative-to-level fanatic, but… again, he’s 21 and showing well in AA. Unless he is injured or suffers a catastrophic collapse (and unlike, say, Nick Adenhart, his numbers don’t suggest he’s headed for one), he will be in AAA next year, age 22.

You think there’s a more than 50% chance that a 22-year-old in AAA will never make the majors?

As far as I can tell, this is tantamount to saying that you think his career has peaked at the age of 21. While I acknowledge the possibility, it does not, shall we say, strike me as fitting a particularly common aging curve.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jun 3, 2008 3:36 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Pitchers don't tend to dramatically increase their K totals as they get older

age means a lot less for pitchers.

Mazzaro projects to be bottom 10-15% of starters in K%. He has not been particularly good at avoiding walks.

Instead of “never make the majors” which wouldn’t surprise, I guess I should have said “never be an intentional part of a mlb rotation” (and his type of stuff is not what teams are looking for in the bullpen).

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on Jun 3, 2008 4:01 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Plenty of crappy pitchers get to AAA ...

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Jun 4, 2008 11:12 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Various thoughts

I’ve been confounded by Powell’s low BABIP too. If the logical generator of high BABIP is high bat speet, then… well, you do the math. However, limping around on a bum knee probably isn’t helping his infield hit %age any. Still wondering if there have been any 9-3 putouts this season. : /

His season has been split into two parts—an initial phase where all of his peripherals were great and hits just weren’t dropping in, and then a second phase where he’s been in a genuine slump (many more Ks in May than April).

Cunningham: I wonder if the A’s are targeting line-drive percentage as an active goal among their prospects/trade targets nowadays. It does seem like a stat that might slip beneath the radar of even SABR-aware teams. I’ve got my eye on it. If it looks like a pattern to me, expect a report on it eventually.

Back to the Stanley Cup finals…

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jun 2, 2008 8:46 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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