Is the Cream Finally Rising to the Top?

by madmongoose on Jun 14, 2008 11:04 PM PDT

Wanted to take everyone's temperature around here.

A's are hanging in 6 games above .500-- having played essentially .500 ball for more than a month now, despite a variety of injuries.

Angels are 3.5 games up, but still very shaky in the runs differential department.

Boston a league best 15 games over .500 and their rotation seems very strong and has been bolstered by Lester and Masterson;

Rays +11 though they've been on the W-L train for a few weeks now.

White Sox +8, off from their +11 peak, and clearly in need of another rant from Ozzie.

These 5 teams have been the only squads consistently sniffing the roses for more than a month now-- Toronto, baltimore and even Texas have flirted with an over .500 record, but then fallen back.

but now... the Tigers have won 7 of 8-- are only 6 games below .500 and 7 behind Chicago. And the offense is perking up, finally.

The Yanks have won 8 of 11 and are 3 games over .500 and only a game and a half behind the A's.

Questions-- are these the 7 teams from which the AL playoff teams will come? (Is Cleveland dead/ Toronto? Texas?) Will Detroit finally have enough pitching with Rodney and Zumaya back? Ditto for Yanks with Joba in rotation??

Is our best opportunity within the division or as a WC? Are we the least likely of these 7 to go to the ball in October?

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My Opinion FWIW

1) Cleveland is not dead…. They are getting Carmona back soon. Their pen is very weak though. Borowski is simply pathetic as we have witnessed. But Oh Boy, poor Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez, they need those guys

2) Putting Joba in the rotation was and is a big mistake. Who the hell wants to see Kyle Farnsworth and co bridging the gap to Rivera?, Not me if I’m a fan which I’m not. I hate the Yankees.

3) Detroit is getting within striking distance but they need another starter and of course their set-up guys you mentioned. Without them, they are pretty much screwed. That Freddy Dolsi has got good stuff from what I’ve seen

4) We get all our guys back healthy and our offense will be better. Couple that with our pitching and we can hang with Anaheim. I predicted their pitching was going to be in a rut about a week ago and right on cue, they are getting shelled and they will continue to get shelled for awhile so we need to take advantage. For a rebuilding team, we are doing great. Just with that POS Blanton would pitch like he has done in the second half of seasons past.

I would like to see Blanton traded if possible and Gaudin back in the rotation. IMO the rotation would be that much stronger with him replacing Blanton.

by Trainman on Jun 14, 2008 11:31 PM PDT 0 recs

calling blanton a pos lowers his trade value immensely

by phastphill on Jun 15, 2008 10:14 PM PDT up 0 recs

Yankees

Yankees are just on a hot streak, I believe. Their offense will remain consistent the whole season but it’s their pitching which is actually performing right now. But there’s no way they’ll be able to compete with that staff and bullpen getting to Rivera. I also don’t think Tampa will be there the whole way. Their fast start is encouraging for those of us who want to see them unseat the Sox/Yanks in the near future atop the East, but I don’t think they’re quite ready to do it.

I do not think the WC will come out of the East this year. I think one of the Tigers/White Sox will get it, but maybe we can surprise a lot of people and sneak in there.

"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin

by Helloooo 1st on Jun 15, 2008 12:31 AM PDT 0 recs

Especially if Wang's foot keeps him out

by nevermoor on Jun 15, 2008 9:50 PM PDT up 0 recs

Let's not get ahead of ourselves...

Let’s not get ahead of ourselves… despite the Angels’ run differential, they made us look pretty bad the first two games of this last series with them… and even though we’re about to get Thomas back, they’re getting Figgins and Kendrick back… and if Vlad gets healthy again, we’re really gonna need to execute well to keep up with them… man, I HATE the angels… they’re just so scrappy and win so many games they shouldn’t.

by C-Gon on Jun 15, 2008 2:04 AM PDT 0 recs

Sadly we're not about to get Thomas back.

He’s not allowed any BB activity until July, so he and Sweeney are out for the forseeable future. I think the only hope of upgrading our offense is for our current lineup to just start hitting better(which I see as quite possible). And hopefully Buck finds his stroke in Sacto and comes up when we’re done with NL parks. He could move Cust to DH improving offense and D.

A lineup (in no order) of:
Buck
Barton
Ellis
Chavez
Cust
Sweeney
Gonzalez
Crosby
Suzuki

is starting to look pretty good. A lot of upside there.

by WhiteElephants on Jun 15, 2008 3:46 AM PDT up 0 recs

What you are seeing

now will be now the A’s look in 2009 just without Brown in the OF mix, unless a trade or two happens.

by A'sfaninNC on Jun 15, 2008 9:46 AM PDT up 0 recs

ellis is a free agent after this year.

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Jun 15, 2008 8:20 PM PDT up 0 recs

Our big improvement

Was Chavez coming back for Hannahan. I don’t really know why people went so easy on him. He had the worst OPS of all qualified 3B.

by nevermoor on Jun 15, 2008 9:52 PM PDT up 0 recs

Answers ...

1. These are probably the seven … Cleveland, Toronto or Texas could change that … but they probably won’t …

2. Detroit does not have enough pitching … neither does Chicago … or New York … so who knows? Of course Oakland does not have enough offense, neither does Anaheim … and Tampa’s pitching probably is not deep enough … so I guess Boston repeats again … or at least has a one in eight chance of it …

3. Nope, best opportunity is the division …NL east is taking two spots …

4.No, we have at least as good of a chance as anyone outside of Boston and Anaheim …

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Jun 15, 2008 4:54 AM PDT 0 recs

I think Chicago has enough pitching

to win the division. Danks, Contreras, Floyd, Vazquez and Buerhle is a solid rotation.

I’m beginning to come around to the notion that the division may be our best shot, but what if… Tampa peaks and the Yanks and Tigers never play to their potential? Then the WC could be a total crapshoot.

by madmongoose on Jun 15, 2008 7:38 AM PDT up 0 recs

Ok ...

“enough” is a pretty arbitrary way of measuring pitching … how much is actually enough? Sure, maybe Chicago has enough …

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Jun 15, 2008 11:26 AM PDT up 0 recs

AL East?

"The two of them deserve each other. One's a born liar, the other's convicted."

by SwampyD on Jun 15, 2008 7:20 PM PDT up 0 recs

Does anyone remember how long Chavez is supposed to be on the 2 games at 3B and one at DH program?

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on Jun 15, 2008 8:25 AM PDT 0 recs

My two cents...

The Yankees will be heard from, I fear – I still consider them the “team to beat” in the WC. Their rotation (Wang, Mussina, Pettitte, Joba, Rasner) is plenty good for that offense. Only middle relief will kill them.

The Rays will hang in there, but young teams in many players’ first pennant race will usually fade over a long season. This might be their A’s-1999 season.

Texas is going nowhere – their rotation, combined with the Texas summer heat, will produce their usual dive off a cliff.

The Angels are due for a slump, but I don’t believe they’re as mediocre as their run differential would suggest. They’re still without Figgins and now that Lackey’s back I feel the talent difference between LAA and OAK is substantial. However, that doesn’t mean the A’s won’t find a way – it just means I’ll be surprised if they compete for the West down to the wire.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jun 15, 2008 9:10 AM PDT 0 recs

If we can get our main lineup with Thomas back for the end of the season

I think we can compete with the Angels to the wire. Our rotation with Harden being healthy is outstanding, and the Angels lineup doesn’t look as fearsome with Vlad being banged up. At least our pitching will keep us in the race, and with a few breaks on offense (notably health), we could win it this year. The great thing about this lineup is that with the young talented hitters like CarGon and Barton, they can only improve over the course of the season. Barton is starting to hit to his potential, and a Cust-Thomas-Chavez-Barton 3-6 lineup looks pretty decent if Barton keeps it up. Add Sweeney’s improvement into the mix, and you’ve got the makings of a respectable lineup.

Prince: This bores me. Is anyone up for a game of basketball?

by baseb3383 on Jun 15, 2008 9:42 AM PDT up 0 recs

My concern is that even with Thomas back,

the rotation is unlikely to hold up. Harden is Harden, and Duke (who has a history of owies anyway), Smith, and Eveland have not thrown 150+ IP. Gaudin gives us a cushion but at some point I expect we’ll need our #7 starter and/or the guys who are pitching will hit a wall and will get lit up a few times.

I was really looking forward to getting Thomas back on 6/20 – I’m majorly bummed about the news.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jun 15, 2008 9:49 AM PDT up 0 recs

And the worst part is...

we have no idea when he’s coming back. And when Thomas returns, he may be in his extended spring training mode, where he’s kind of useless.

Criminey, all we need the guy to do is be able to swing a bit and limp a bit around the bases.

by bear88 on Jun 15, 2008 12:20 PM PDT up 0 recs

partial answers

We’re not the least likely of the seven. I think Detroit is less likely. But I think we’re in the clump just above that.

Division is definitely more likely than the wild card for us. Either way we need one team ahead of us to stumble, and I don’t see that Anaheim is any less likely to stumble than Boston or Tampa, even aside from the fact that it doesn’t need to fall as far for us to catch them. In addition to that, for the division, we need one team (Texas) not to make a big surge and catch us from behind. For the wild card, we need about seven teams not to make a big surge.

If you figure, say, 5% chance for a team to have a surprise hot streak, do the math and it’s about 30% chance that out of seven teams at least one of them will do so.

formerly known as mdl

by iglew on Jun 15, 2008 9:58 AM PDT 0 recs

Another way to put it would be that

if the A’s make the kind of surge necessary to win the WC, they’ll probably win the division.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jun 15, 2008 10:30 AM PDT up 0 recs

Not the same thing

I’m not disputing your point, but it’s not the same point that I’m arguing above.

I’m considering all possible ways for A’s to make the playoffs. Even without a surge, we can still make it if other teams around us fall back. In the non-surge scenarios, winning the division is much more likely than winning the wild card, because there’s fewer teams that have to stay behind us.

formerly known as mdl

by iglew on Jun 15, 2008 4:39 PM PDT up 0 recs

I'm writing off the Yankees

when they’re eliminated from playoff contention. They’ve got a lot of money to pay for upgrades.

I also think Detroit has a pretty good shot.

by bear88 on Jun 15, 2008 12:26 PM PDT 0 recs

Even as is, they can get hot and surge -

as it appears they are doing right now (5 out of 6 if they complete the sweep of Houston; they’re leading 3-0 in the 4th). They had the best record in baseball after June 10th last season – I hope they are just hot and will cool off, but I’m not counting on it.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jun 15, 2008 12:43 PM PDT up 0 recs

Why would you count them out? They haven't missed the postseason

in a long, long time. They will be there at the end.

Was Black Snake Moan a comedy or a drama?

by ohtobe21likehuston on Jun 15, 2008 5:20 PM PDT up 0 recs

dont look now

We've never been in that position. We wouldn't know how to operate, I mean, do we get him a corsage?-Billy Beane on signing a high profile FA

by DyeLongJustice on Jun 15, 2008 6:33 PM PDT 0 recs

but

Texas is .500 and only three games back of the A’s. In that same mold, the Pads aren’t that far back in the NL West. You can never ever count a team out in baseball until at LEAST 3/4 of the games are played, or you play in the AL East (sorry jays and orioles)

We've never been in that position. We wouldn't know how to operate, I mean, do we get him a corsage?-Billy Beane on signing a high profile FA

by DyeLongJustice on Jun 15, 2008 6:35 PM PDT up 0 recs

Yeah, but you can look at a team and make projections

Many a season Texas has looked good this time of year only to take a Summer dive, and I don’t see them rising above .500. First of all, what odds do you give Milton Bradley to play 140+ games? Second of all, their pitching staff is the usual.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jun 15, 2008 8:07 PM PDT up 0 recs

As long as he's the DH

Pretty high odds. At least so my fantasy team hopes.

by nevermoor on Jun 15, 2008 9:53 PM PDT up 0 recs

I saw he was in RF a couple days ago

I wonder what the Rangers’ long-term (this season) plans are for him.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jun 16, 2008 9:04 AM PDT up 0 recs

double header in an NL park, and he sat the second game

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on Jun 16, 2008 12:17 PM PDT up 0 recs

Ah - that wacky interleague!

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jun 16, 2008 12:53 PM PDT up 0 recs

I beg to differ

You can never ever count a team out in baseball until at LEAST 3/4 of the games are played

You can count out the Mariners right now.

Even if they win 2/3 of their games for the rest of the season, which would be totally sick, they still would only finish with something like 88 wins.

"Dispatch knuckleheadedness with Bond-like aplomb." –74mk

by iglew on Jun 16, 2008 3:50 PM PDT up 0 recs

88 wins could be enough ...

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Jun 18, 2008 1:30 PM PDT up 0 recs

Trade deadline

I think there are going to be a few big moves this year. Sabbathia is one of the more obvious ones; Penny, too, if his shoulder doesn’t fall completely off. I don’t think it’s too unlikely that the moves made could really change the shape of the post-season for the teams mentioned here. So I’m reserving judgment until later.

I don’t know about the A’s chances, though. To me, it has felt like they have been overachieving as whole this year, and it’s been barely enough to keep it going. I don’t want them to be the newest version of the 2007 Mariners.

President and CEO of the Ryan Sweeney Apologists Consortium

by Joey C. on Jun 15, 2008 8:13 PM PDT 0 recs