What the Buck?
by PaulThomas on Jun 10, 2008 1:52 PM PDT
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PrintAll content from this post has been removed in accordance with my decision to leave Athletics Nation. It is my sad duty to report that I no longer wish to create content for, or share it with, this site as currently run. I cannot, in good conscience, square the site's policies with what I consider to be the bare minimum requirements for free and fair discussion, and I have no wish to engage in unfree and unfair discussion. Goodbye.
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Nothing at all in here about the fact that he was hurt and missed over a month?
He’s had a .750 OPS since coming back from injury (granted, it’s way too SLG heavy)
I’d say that it’s awful early to say he’s no longer MLB caliber at age 23.
ditto that
Might want to also include his (adjusted, most likely) AAA stats.
Why does such a wonderful man like such terrible things? @('.')@
Combined line with adjusted milb stats since coming off the DL:
.254/.331/.392. The adjusted milb line is .276/.343/.373. (He had an awful first week in AAA). Certainly not stellar, but not bad.
The K rate and BB rate have been back to normal since he’s been back; his babip is holding him back. My impression is that he’s been making pretty good contact for many of his outs, although he also has a tendency to pound the ball into the ground to the right side. I think the “after” numbers give a better picture than the total numbers for this year.
The A's colors are green and gold.
I'd love to take a look at the process numbers from when he got back
Unfortunately we don’t have a way of getting that data.
With that said… I mean, the guy has eight line drives on the entire season. A normal LD rate for his second stint would virtually imply that he didn’t hit ANY in his first go-round.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Well
it would be 26 balls in play, which you can’t really conclude anything from.
The A's colors are green and gold.
True, but we might glean something from the swing/take percentages
I don’t think anyone’s done a study to find how fast those converge/regress to the mean yet, but I imagine it’s fairly quick, because most of the numbers I’ve seen look “right” for a given hitter after a fairly short time (i.e. Giambi taking tons of pitches, Vlad swinging at everything, etc.).
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
I think PT's Comment about MLB caliber
was a statement about Buck’s present performance, not his long-term performance.
SSS and injury status before/after aside ...
... from the poor strike zone judgment stuff, I’d guess that maybe he needs vision correction, either LASIK or just eyeglasses/contacts.
Why does such a wonderful man like such terrible things? @('.')@
Buck doing his best Rick Vaughn:
I got news for you Mr. (Thomas), you haven’t heard the last of me- You may think I’m shit now, but someday you’re gonna be sorry you cut me. I’m gonna catch on somewhere else and every time that I (hit) against you I’m gonna stick it up you’re fuckin’ ass!
I find it hard to believe
that his eyesight suddenly and unaccountably decayed to that degree at age 24.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
I have no idea what to believe
I’m looking for explanations here, not trying to provide them. We report, you decide. Etc.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Yeah, but it does beg the question
Is it really that he was injured? What about the beginning of the season when he did nothing at the top of the order?
I ‘d like to give him the benefit of the doubt and believe it’s injury/pain, vision or an ill-advised adjustment to his approach at the plate. However, only Travis knows what’s wrong with Travis. Sometimes these guys have some emotional or relationship issue and simply make bad decisions up there. They get cloudy and distracted.
But if his great mini-2007 season was a fluke, then aye caramba!
maybe he used that tube of sunscreen DJ left in the clubhouse
Why does such a wonderful man like such terrible things? @('.')@
A look back to 2007's stats shows that
by the end of his first month with the A’s last year he was batting .190 with 10 RBI and 2 HR, through 24 games he was at .215 with 12 RBI and 3 HR. Those numbers sound very familiar for some reason as he is currently at .170 with 13 RBI and 3 HR. But if you continue to look through 2007’s game logs you will see that he started to heat up around game 30 that he played in and for most of the rest of the year. This year with the injury and time in AAA he has not quite got to 30 games yet even though the A’s have played 63 games. Now this is not proof that everything will be great for him hitting wise in the next few games but he had a slow start in ‘07 and looks the same this year. And even with the slow start he managed .288, with 34 RBI and 7 HR in 82 games last year. So he went from .215 to .288 in 58 games. So before he announce him dead lets remember that and the fact that he now has a Big League Scouting report so teams know how to pitch him better than they did last year.
Just a theory here...
but maybe he’s getting more junk in the zone and fastballs out of it and he’s sitting on fastballs. Maybe pitchers are figuring him out.
So what to make of his June so far?
He’s still not hitting, but he’s walking a lot more, striking out a lot less, and hitting homers.
Is it a sign he’s on the right track, a sample size fluke, or something else? Even hitting under .200 this month, he’s OPSing .831.
http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/
by thejd44 on Jun 10, 2008 2:29 PM PDT reply actions
Much better, IMO
In the first part of the season you didn’t need Fangraphs to tell you Buck had completely lost his plate discipline. He swung at pitches out of the strike zone (sometimes far out of the strike zone) A LOT. His batting success has always been bound up with his plate discipline, and I think when someone like that loses his discipline he also loses his ability to hit. He’s someone who has to make the pitcher give him a decently hittable pitch a fair proportion of the time, and he wasn’t doing that.
If he’s fixed his approach, the results should follow. I hope.
"His batting success has always been bound up with his plate discipline"?
Can’t say I agree with that one. His numbers last year ranged from slightly better than average to slightly worse.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
disturbing, indeed...
I wonder what a similar analysis would reveal about Swisher both up to and after he broke out about a week ago. Was Swish unlucky or was it bad process? Maybe there’s hope for Travis if it’s something he can correct. It seems that Nick did it.
Aren’t hitting coaches supposed to help with this kinda problem?
Foolsh, the most insane regular poster on AN since oaktoon left - salb
Watching Swisher leads me to believe he was more than unlucky
He looked awful up there, changed his batting stance about 15 times this year, took tons of swings like he had never seen major league pitching, etc. I don’t know if it was mental or mechcanical, but it wasn’t just luck.
http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/
by thejd44 on Jun 10, 2008 2:32 PM PDT up reply actions
Very little is wrong with Swish
A similar analysis to that done by PT found that Nick Swisher’s underlying stats (and this was before the last few days) are healthy.
"Something tells me we need more money for Cust." - Grady Fuson
Swisher is in fact almost the opposite situation
because in his case there’s virtually no evidence of process decay (other than, questionably, his home run rate) whereas in Buck’s case it’s difficult to find anywhere where he HASN’T gotten worse. Swisher’s slump appears to be almost all luck, and Buck’s to be almost all (lack of) skill.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Almost all luck? You haven't watched him then.
This is one of those situations where you absolutely MUST have seen the guy. Yes, he’s still walking. But he’s also looking like somebody who had never even heard of the sport of baseball a lot this year. It’s really amazing how terrible he’s looked at the plate.
http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/
by thejd44 on Jun 10, 2008 5:14 PM PDT up reply actions
Yikes
Seven line drives all year, and three of those in one game.
Time to disconsolately laud salb918’s prescience?
He had 6 doubles in the Toronto series alone, I seem to remember most of those being line drives,
or are shots to the gap, that get over 12 feet off the ground fly balls?
by theblackpearl on Jun 10, 2008 2:49 PM PDT up reply actions
And perhaps my own foolishness
since as anyone who reads that thread will note, I was quite bullish on Buck in the offseason.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
You weren't the only one bullish on Buck.
That particular exchange stuck in my head, in fact, because sal’s contention seemed so dissonant at the time (as compared to the generally accepted AN consensus on Buck, that is).
Do you know the answer to theblackpearl’s question above? How exactly are the classifications determined? Is there a guy/gal in the press box making a semi-subjective determination on every batted ball? Or is there some kind of machine at each ballpark that measures arc, velocity, etc.?
95% sure it's a person (employee of a stats compilation company) that does it
(And it appears that they do it quite differently from the people who have the same job in the minors…)
The A's colors are green and gold.
PaulThomas: Bullshgame22?
I generally bemoan the profusion of Mr Sabermetric Sporks in the Scrabble ranks who don't know the meaning or usage of 50% of the words they use. -monkeyball
That would explain the bullsh--
Never mind.
Note: JOKE!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
What were his 2006 Equivalencies based on his AA/A+ stats?
I think this should at least contribute to the discussion:
212 AA at-bats in ‘06: .843 OPS
283 major league at-bats in ‘07: .851 OPS
No one would’ve predicted a player raising their OPS in a jump from AA to the bigs. I’d guess that his true talent level will balance out somewhere between where he is now, and what he did last year.
I would not, however, expect a return to last year’s stats by the end of this season. His minor league career stats do not suggest a consistent .850 OPS IMO. At least, not yet. Of course I’d love for him to grow in to that type of player. But I view his ‘06 as an indication that he may have overchieved his true talent level last year.
"Let’s just hope he’s not a complete turd out there." -thejd44, describing Crosby's best scenario.
by notsellingjeans on Jun 10, 2008 2:48 PM PDT reply actions
I suppose the hope was that he made significant improvements last year over
where he was in ‘06, but that seems not to be the case.
2006 equivalency=.231/.279/.349.
So ‘06+’07 was about a .740-.750 ML OPS.
The A's colors are green and gold.
A simplistic, but possibly accurate, assessment
of the data suggests that whereas hitters are supposed to generally “take balls and swing at strikes,” Buck is swinging at more balls and taking more strikes. Hard to get into hitter’s counts, or hit a lot of line drives, that way.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
His batting average is low because he's not hitting the ball hard?
Who would have guessed it?
That was a productive contribution to the conversation
Thank you, sir. I tip my cap.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Yes, you've got me
I believe that everything I say is and always has been right. It is not possible for me to make a mistake. Please pay no attention to the post above this on this f*ing thread where I appear to have engaged in self-critique over an excessively rosy player evaluation. It is simply an optical illusion.
I actually wear a crown, you know. When I’m posting. It gives me that je ne sais quoi of invincibility. I get weird looks from co-workers, street bums, and my close family, but it’s totally worth it. Besides, it’s good practice for my upcoming self-deification.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Crown
He’s probably referencing how sarcastic your reaction was, not whether you are right or wrong.
Solotar’s response was tongue-in-cheek as well, but I didn’t read it at all as a slight of your post, which evidently you did.
the problem is not "too many left handed hitters" but "too many suck handed hitters"-Zonis
Here's Crown Early
Crown of the waters, brine on her brow, she’ll dance them a jig and jilt them fairly.
Florida ain't no place for a self-respecting A's fan.
by Leopold Bloom on Jun 11, 2008 10:32 PM PDT up reply actions
If it were 1950,
I’d just tell Buck to tie one on and go get laid.
Managers used to prescribe a visit to the whorehouse as a slumpbreaker, and many of them believed that the cure for the common slump was to play with a hangover… the idea being that if you feel like shit, you’ll play on instinct, because your head’s thumping too much to press too hard.
"You have to have a catcher or you'll have all passed balls."- Casey Stengel
or you could just tell him to hit his balls harder
Why does such a wonderful man like such terrible things? @('.')@
I wish it were 1950 and I were in a teaching slump.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Current usage
Slumpbuster = unattractive, easy one-nighter. So sayeth the Urban Dictionary.
In Oakland, the term might also refer to giving an interview to the MLB.com beat writer.
How do the angels get to sleep when the devil leaves the porchlight on?
by FreeSeatUpgrade on Jun 10, 2008 7:10 PM PDT up reply actions
Paul Thomas, thanks for the analysis
I found it to be interesting and educational.
Good job….really…!
As for the 1950 comment, it immediately brought to mind the Casey Stengal quote (Casey played in the 1920s, managed National League clubs for many years, and came to the Yankees in 1949, starting a wildly successful twelve year stint, with 10 (?) championships?
Casey said, (paraphrased) “It’s not that are guys getting laid that causes a problem (with on-field performance), it’s being out all night looking for it that causes a problem..”
"I never predict anything, and I never will." Paul Gascoigne, English footballer
by One won lost won on Jun 10, 2008 8:08 PM PDT reply actions
I heard it as “it’s not the gettin’ it, it’s the lookin’ for it.” One of the reasons the Yankees traded Billy Martin was to keep him hunting for it with Mickey Mantle.
I can't believe it took Mantle very long to find it
http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/
by thejd44 on Jun 11, 2008 9:53 AM PDT up reply actions
Maybe you and I define "why" differently, but...
...this, while interesting, didn’t tell me a single thing about why Buck is doing so poorly this season. The stats did a wonderful job of reporting results, though.
You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the goddamn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all. ~Earl Weaver
So you would not define
“He’s swinging at balls and not swinging at strikes” as an answer to the question “Why is Buck sucking?” (Not necessarily the correct answer, just AN answer.)
Well, can’t please everyone, I guess. I mean, I guess it’s not the ultimate cause, but if nothing else it’s at least one turtle further down than just the superficial OBP/SLG/K/BB stats we’re used to seeing.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Why is he swinging at balls instead of strikes?
You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the goddamn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all. ~Earl Weaver
Facial
I generally bemoan the profusion of Mr Sabermetric Sporks in the Scrabble ranks who don't know the meaning or usage of 50% of the words they use. -monkeyball
He was swinging at balls instead of strikes because facial?
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
yes, because facial stupid
"The two of them deserve each other. One's a born liar, the other's convicted."
Excellent Piece, PaulThomas
Other than Salb, most of us were pretty bullish on Buck by the end of last season. I definitely have been wondering what the Buck happened.
In my humble opinion, the most telling stats are that Travis is swinging at more pitches outside the strike zone and missing/letting go more pitches in the strike zone. As is obvious to all of us, that would account for the rising strike out rate and the sinking walk rate. It would also account for Travis hitting fewer balls solidly. As you point out, only Amazing Vlad can make a living out of the strike zone.
The question is: “Why/How did Travis Buck lose his batting eye?”
The most obvious guess - and I say guess because I haven’t looked at what types of pitches Buck is swinging at - is that the scouting reports have caught up to him. The league must have noticed that Buck can only hit fastballs (or something) and pitchers are ordered to only throw those pitches out of the zone when Buck’s at the plate. By waiting for “his pitch,” Buck is letting other pitches in the zone go by and swinging at “his pitch” out of the zone.
Let’s hope that Travis can figure this out. I’ve been pretty excited about an outfield of Buck, Sweeney and Gonzalez. for the next few years. Who would have guessed that Buck would be the one we were most concerned about?
I think you are right about Buck
in the short term. Yet, he has hit at every level, even the MLB last year. Nevertheless, the stats don’t lie and I don’t think the sample size is too small. He needs to spend some time at AAA because he is hurting the team. Oh, and send Suzuki down with him. Paul, you should analyze Suzuki’s numbers because they are atrocious. His numbers are downright shocking…...............8 doubles and 1 homer in 211 at bats! OUch! And, I don’t care how well he “handles the pitching staff” because offensively he is hurting the team big time! Put Bowen in the game for gawdsakes!
If you buy that Suzuki is a very good defensive catcher
A team can live with his offense. He’s not actually hurting the team, even if he isn’t providing much offensively. The problem is it’s impossible to really quantify how good he is defensively (Aside from blocking balls in the dirt, throwing out runners, etc.). This is one area where I defer to the team, because pitchers and coaches know if a catcher knows what he’s doing back there.
http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/
by thejd44 on Jun 11, 2008 9:59 AM PDT up reply actions
I think Buck
will end the year with a .340/.340/.340 line, It will be amazing, but by August, everyone will have adjsuted to his all line-drive single ways. By then the popular opinion will be that he’s a good hitter. People will bring “The Buck Stops Here!” signs to the ballpark by August. But PaulThomas will be a buzzkill and write another “What the Buck?” diary at that point, leading us all to the miserable reality that .340+.340=.680=Fangraph indictment=PaulThomas screed=Billy Beane failure=PaulThomas front page promotion= the end of this site as we know it=everybody hurts=that’s me, losing my religion. Because the Buck does, in fact, stop here.
the city dumps fill
the junkyards fill
the madhouses fill
the hospitals fill
the graveyards fill
nothing else
fills.
Some quibbles
I think you make a lot of blanket statements about what’s good or bad regarding the Fangraphs data, which in reality isn’t black and white.
Next up: Z-Swing%. That’s the percentage of pitches IN the zone that a hitter swings at (good). Last year Buck swung at 68.7% of pitches in the zone, which is somewhat better than average (average is about 66.6%). This year his protectiveness has been much lower, at only 62.6%. Wow.
Swinging at more pitches in the zone is not necessarily a good thing. Taking a “pitcher’s strike” allows a batter to wait for a better pitch to hit while getting deeper into the count. A lot of the high walk hitters have low Z-Swing%s.
Buck’s overall Swing % is up by 2.8%. So what we’re learning is that not only is he swinging more, but he’s also taking more called strikes—all of the extra swings are coming on pitches out of the zone.
Or, as the Fangraphs data shows, Buck is seeing more pitches in the strike zone this year than he did last year.
Meanwhile, his Z-Contact% is down, meaning he’s missing more balls in the strike zone. It was a not-great 87.5% last year, and it’s 82.5% this year (average here is about 89%). We add another epithet to Buck’s Iliad of woes here, as he is also having problems hitting balls that are theoretically hittable.
Having a low Z-Contact% is not necessarily a bad thing, and the bottom of the leaderboard for this category is filled with the best power hitters in the league. Basically, the harder you swing the more you’ll miss, but that’s not necessarily bad. One could say that shouldn’t be Buck’s approach, but that’s likely where his power comes from.
I would guess that while Buck was a bit lucky last year, his low line drive percentage this year is a total fluke. Everything about his performance record suggests he’s an .800 OPS hitter, which is pretty good for a 24 year old.
Fair enough, but I have two quibbles:
Basically, the harder you swing the more you’ll miss, but that’s not necessarily bad. One could say that shouldn’t be Buck’s approach, but that’s likely where his power comes from.
Buck’s power, at least given what he’s demonstrated in his pro track record, comes from spraying doubles, not from hard swings for home runs.
I would guess that while Buck was a bit lucky last year, his low line drive percentage this year is a total fluke.
I don’t see this. Line drives aren’t a luck-based event, they’re based on hitting the ball at a certain launch angle with decent velocity. Either you’re doing this, or you aren’t. Whether they get CAUGHT or not is largely luck-based, but I don’t see how hitting them is.
Additionally, I postulate that the terrible counts Buck is routinely working himself into are making it harder for him to hit the ball well.
Large grain of salt given the sample sizes, but Buck has a .231 OPS with two strikes this year. (League average is .545.)
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
given that .231 OPS w/2 strikes ...
... which is catastrophically low, and that his K rate has gone up but not stratospherically so, could we venture a guess that Travis is paying too much attention to his fellow Tr- trio?
Is it prurient? I don’t know what to tell you. I think it’s odd and interesting. It’s part of life. @('.')@
You're too focused on small samples
I don’t see this. Line drives aren’t a luck-based event, they’re based on hitting the ball at a certain launch angle with decent velocity. Either you’re doing this, or you aren’t. Whether they get CAUGHT or not is largely luck-based, but I don’t see how hitting them is.
I know there is skill involved in hitting line drives, but a player’s LD% over 100 AB is not a good way to judge that player’s skill at hitting line drives. Buck has over 1100 professional plate appearances, and you’re focusing nearly all of your attention on 10% of them. Not only has Buck hit well at every stop, he’s also hit a lot of line drives and hit for a high average at every stop. The scouting reports on him all say he sprays line drives around the field. Everything in Buck’s performance and scouting record suggests he’s a pretty good line drive hitter except for his 100 AB this year.
Level OPS PA Age
A- .995 41 21
A .899 144 21
A+ 1.003 145 22
AA .848 238 22
AAA .882 115 23-24
MLB .771 445 23-24
I don’t really see what people are so worried about. Everything suggests he’s an ~.800 OPS hitter.
Statistically, that is logical
to conclude that he is an .800 or so OPS hitter, but it takes more that statistics to succeed in Major League Baseball.
Some people never adjust mentally. I think Buck’s success last year was because he didn’t expect to make the club, so it was “all gravy” whatever he did. He got to play in the Major Leagues in front of friends and family, one or two days after he expected to be going to the minor leagues. Mentally, the guy was on a super-positive outlook in early 2007, and he rode it.
Switch to 2008, and pitchers have a book on him, he is expected to make the club, all sorts of mental differences from the year before. He even said, he changed his mental approach as the season opened. He went back to the minors and succeeded, but once again, returning to face the superior pitching in the American League, I’m sure the doubts have crept back in. He is Travis Buck and not some ”.800 OPS interchangeable component” like some printer cartridge, and IMHO, he is that kind of guy to have the mental aspect of the game supersede any other factor. My personal, fan-distance observation and judgment.
Look no further than Jack Cust. The guy had indisputable talent, yet it took him many trips and returns to minor league ball. Years! Now, the word is, he is very level-headed, never gets too up, or too down, despite, or because of, his AB performance. It took Jack Cust years to get the mental “fit” for a major leaguer… the majority of aspirants to MLB never do, so they never stay or get there. Some, like Dave Winfield, had it before they even became a major leaguer. From day one, they are consistent and successful. Where is Buck in this mental profiling? I’d say he’s vulnerable to feeling too responsible, regardless of his talents, his line-drive-hitting ability.
In MLBaseball, the mental trumps the physical every time IMO.
"I never predict anything, and I never will." Paul Gascoigne, English footballer
by One won lost won on Jun 12, 2008 11:38 AM PDT up reply actions
Eh
Cust took years to stick in the bigs because the teams that controlled him were idiots, not because of anything about his own performance.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Cust is a poor example
Everything you’re saying about Buck was being said about Cust when he was slumping in April. He can’t adjust, the pitchers have figured him out, he shouldn’t be on the big league team.
He is Travis Buck and not some ".800 OPS interchangeable component" like some printer cartridge, and IMHO, he is that kind of guy to have the mental aspect of the game supersede any other factor. My personal, fan-distance observation and judgment.
I know he’s not a robot, thanks, but I don’t think we get any great insight into his psychological makeup by watching him play. And were you saying these things about Buck before the year started, or is this a post-hoc explanation of why he’s hit poorly?
OK ... I'll bite ...
One question … what is this based on?
Where is Buck in this mental profiling? I’d say he’s vulnerable to feeling too responsible, regardless of his talents, his line-drive-hitting ability.
Have you interviewed him in depth?
Are you a psychiatrist with access to his applicable medical records?
Did you read an article doing a psychological profile of Travis Buck?
Did you read any article, what-so-ever, by someone with some basis of expertise that gave you clues that you can apply to what you know about Travis Buck?
Or
Are you simply using the existence of his recent failures as proof of your explanation of his recent failures?
And as others have pointed out, your point about Jack Cust is based on incorrect facts.
Jack Cust did not get nor need lots of chances before he ultimately was able to succeed. Before coming to Oakland, he had 169 career MLB plate appearances. That’s one third of a season. All but seven of those plate appearances came in either 2003 or 2004. He was terrible in his first extended trip to the bigs - but he had a very good, though abbreviated, season in 2004. In reward for that, he got a total of 4 PAs over the next three years - all as a pinch hitter—plus one appearance as a defensive replacement.
As a 23 year old rookie, Jack Cust struggled in 2002 with Colorado. He has hit every single year since then, at whatever level he has been placed.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
one appearance as a defensive replacement?!?
Is it prurient? I don’t know what to tell you. I think it’s odd and interesting. It’s part of life. @('.')@
The mental side.
This is a very plausible justification for his struggles. Without an absolute answer straight from Buck’s mouth, OWOL’s post gives a legitimate explanation for his struggles. As PT stated in the original comment, Buck is not hitting the ball as hard as he has previously. What can be the cause of that?
Early on in the season he stated that he and Van Burkleo had seen things on video and they were making a plan to work it out. So obviously there was something wrong mechanical with him, before he got hurt. That can easily explain the lack of solid contact. To me it seemed he was slightly more open at the plate than last year, but I don’t have the slightest clue whether that was intentional or not. Regardless, the issues appeared fixed as Buck went down to AAA and proceeded to hit again.
When it comes to swinging at a lot more pitches out of the strike zone, and taking more good pitchers, that can be attributed to his mental approach. More than likely it’s a good sign he is lacking confidence, and isn’t feeling comfortable at the plate. By no means am I saying that I’m 100% certain this is the cause, but it’s definitely a logical explanation. Especially for a guy as young as him.
Lets just hope he doesn’t continue to look like a mirrored version of Eric Byrnes.
What about Barry?
"Barry who?" Forst said, and I felt like I was in the middle of a knock-knock joke.
My write-up was based on Bucks own words
Travis Buck said a lot in both a written interview after his return from the DL and “rehab”, as well as a radio interview with Ray Fosse. He said, as the season started, he felt too much responsibility, that he put too much on his own shoulders, tried to carry too much of the team. By his own admission, his mental status affected his hitting. Big-time.
We are all surrounded by friends and families, workplace associates, people in schools, stores, restaurants. You don’t need a PhD or study psychology in earnest to understand many of the mental mechanisms at work, and how they affect people. You simply have to choose to absorb what is put before you, year upon year, and then build a “file” in your head to reference from time to time.
"I never predict anything, and I never will." Paul Gascoigne, English footballer
by One won lost won on Jun 13, 2008 9:48 AM PDT up reply actions
Perhaps ...
I’m admittedly skeptical about most things … I also don’t pay much attention to what players have to say, so I could easily have missed such a thing …
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
that's why we ANers go back and forth...
it’s all good stuff, to a greater or lesser degree, depending on…
We have to have differing points of view, or we never learn anything. Or, enjoy what others bring to the table.
Players are usually very predictable and un-informative in their quotes.
There is no “upside” for them in saying anything for public consumption, so why admit to anything but “vanilla is my favorite flavor”?
"I never predict anything, and I never will." Paul Gascoigne, English footballer
by One won lost won on Jun 13, 2008 2:35 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm going to be charitable to Bochy
(Why? I don’t know…) and assume that this was part of a double switch.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Looks like it was a blowout ... he was just clearing out his bench ... letting all the kiddies play ...
Padres won 11-2 on six innings from Woody Williams and a three inning save from Brian Sweeney.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
I like my explanation better
Is it prurient? I don’t know what to tell you. I think it’s odd and interesting. It’s part of life. @('.')@
maybe it was a 17 inning game
and 5 people had to come out of the game in the 16th because they came in contact with the plague.
And there was a fire in the dugout..
And someone’s wife went into early labor…
ok, I give up. I can’t figure it out either.
"Camelot sure fell apart, didn't it?"-Steve McCatty
mental vs physical
In MLBaseball, the mental trumps the physical every time IMO.
That sounds perfectly reasonable to me.
What I don’t understand is why you assume the mental is not reflected in the stats. If a guy is screwed up in the head, he’ll hit poorly, and if he hits poorly it’ll be in the numbers. The numbers measure performance, without regard to whether it is mental or physical abilities that create that performance.
formerly known as mdl
would that be physically, or just a mental state?
Is it prurient? I don’t know what to tell you. I think it’s odd and interesting. It’s part of life. @('.')@
didn't Buck jump from AA to the majors last year?
Maybe he just needs more time, be it in the majors or AAA?
You have to include smiley faces - Poppy
;- ) :- ) :-O : -> : -] : -}
'add another epithet to Buck’s Iliad of woes'
Am I the only one delighted by this? (English Major?)
I’m imagining how he’d be named in Homer … golden-haired Travis, fleet-footed Travis, Travis of the glinting helmet….
formerly known as mdl
red-cheeked Travis, shin-splinted Travis, Mendoza-lined Travis
over-rated Travis
Is it prurient? I don’t know what to tell you. I think it’s odd and interesting. It’s part of life. @('.')@
Minor-leagued Travis
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Meanwhile
Ryan Sweeney continues to hit at all levels this year in an attempt to make a case that he should get some of Buck’s playing time at some point in the near future.
I can’t really say who I think is better (probably Buck) or who is better long-term (also probably Buck), but it’s pretty clear to me who’s better right now.
RagingHarden: Yeah if you get 20 starts out of me I'll be shocked. Like, I'll wreck my drawers.
C-Gon, Buck, Sweeney
Say hello to the future of the A’s outfield
"The two of them deserve each other. One's a born liar, the other's convicted."
Excellent
I’ve figured out how to split the stats from Fangraphs. We can now look at Buck’s numbers in just his second stint:
O-Swing 22.97% (improved)
Z-Swing 60.56% (problematic)
O-Contact 58.82% (lowered)
Z-Contact 86.5% (improved)
LD rate 6.7% (still abysmal)
BABIP .133 (ditto)
So it doesn’t appear to be his batting eye that is letting him down in his second stint of the season. While he’s being very picky at what he swings at in the zone, he’s not hacking at slop nearly as often as he did in the early season. However, he’s still hitting the ball very, very weakly. His walk rate and K rate look better, so I wonder if he’s sacrificed good contact to try and defend the plate with two strikes (which would cut his Ks but up his weak outs). Something to keep an eye on.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Probably looking bad striking out builds on itself
If you see yourself strike out on video, how can you not carry that to your next AB and unconsciously “back off” if you are afraid of looking “silly” (subjective) while not making contact?
I’m sure it can be done to “forget a bad AB” or a “golden sombrero”. But, people are different in how they view their own efforts. It manifests itself in different ways. Perhaps for Buck, he simply doesn’t swing as hard after consecutive AB strike outs, pop ups….who knows.?? But for what ever reason, by whatever mechanism, he’s not “letting it loose” with the swing. That’s how I synthesize the resulting LD rate you show.
"I never predict anything, and I never will." Paul Gascoigne, English footballer
by One won lost won on Jun 13, 2008 10:02 AM PDT up reply actions
Buck sent down to AAA
Wonder if they read this thread…
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Not to shatter an egos or anything
But I highly doubt the A’s were unaware of anything written on this post. Furthmore I doubt they turn to AN for baseball operational advice.
by GusanoQuemador on Jun 13, 2008 3:50 PM PDT up reply actions
I should have made it more clear that I was being facetious
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
yagottawatchit
writing on the internet…
No one sees you smirk….
...the collective “you”...
...not you, personally….
"I never predict anything, and I never will." Paul Gascoigne, English footballer
by One won lost won on Jun 13, 2008 4:19 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, it wasn't clear enough. I thought for sure DePodesta had indeed checked in.
"The two of them deserve each other. One's a born liar, the other's convicted."
exactly and exactly
though, I wonder if Hannahan saw all the bunting comments on AN and took up the idea, after the first-game loss to the Yankees. Geren said he did it on his own.
"I never predict anything, and I never will." Paul Gascoigne, English footballer
by One won lost won on Jun 13, 2008 4:17 PM PDT up reply actions
Maybe Ziggy told him
Is it prurient? I don’t know what to tell you. I think it’s odd and interesting. It’s part of life. @('.')@
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