since before the Angels series, but I didn’t want to jinx things ;)

My fanpost would’ve included a couple polls, because I like polls …
What’s the latest the A’s will have a winning record?
A. Memorial Day
B. Father’s Day
C. July 4th
D. ASB
E. Labor Day

Repeat for ‘share of 1st place’ ...

I’d also want to know
If the A’s are in legitimate contention around the ASB (within 3 games of the 1st) and a trade offer comes in for Blanton + Street for some promising prospects
A. Yes, but only for top-tier prospects. Potentially improve 2010/2011 at the expense of 2008’s playoff chances.
B. No, keep the hand we have this year and see where it goes. We can find solutions for 2010/2011 during the offseason.

Personally, I kinda agree with you in that I don’t think Beane would pull the trigger for a deal for prospects. Fiscally, that’d leave the casual fans in an uproar (didn’t the ChiSox try this once in the 90s), which will negatively impact ticket sales. The players, like you said, would also be hurt by the lack of faith in this year’s squad .. and realistically, most players, when given a chance in the presence to make the playoffs, want to go for it instead of looking to 2-3 years from now. It falls under the ‘I don’t know when I’ll get a chance to make the playoffs again’ line of reasoning.

I know there are plenty of posters here that’ll want to pull the trigger for the sake of the future, but I’m of the mindset, if our chance is now, go for it. Besides, I’ll be studying abroad in the fall and not finishing until late Oct .. leave it to the baseball dieties to mock my season ticketholder run but having the A’s make it to the Series while I’m an ocean away. :P

Beane ain’t gonna care much about casual fans or even his current players. If he gets the right deal—even with a contending team this year—that will help the A’s over the next several seasons he will pull the trigger. 1999 is a decent analogy, but that team was hanging around .500. If this team is hanging around .500 in July, of course Beane movews. The real rub will be what if they are more like .550 and within a game or two of either the division, the WC, or both. and someone really wants Blanton, or Harden, or Street. I say Beane won’t hesitate to pull the trigger.

Unless the A’s are sporting close to or the best record in baseball, we need to not half ass the rebuilding plan. Oakinboston is right we have many more needs in other positions in the minors that could use some upgrading. We need to think long term, not short term based on short term results.

Obviously, from a public relations standpoint, it is harder to trade a “Hey, I’ve heard of that guy” player when a team is still in contention. However, if you look at how the A’s are in contention, one could make the argument that it is easier for Beane to trade Blanton or Street.

The A’s are in contention because their pitching has been simply amazing; only Toronto has given up less runs than the A’s at this point in the season. If Duke, Smith, and Eveland, and Gaudin continue to pitch well, Blanton becomes more expendable if Gio Gonzalez looks ready for a call-up in July (his numbers are not impressive so far, but he’s only had 6 starts in AAA.) If Harden somehow stays moderately healthy, he figures in their somewhere as well. James Simmons will likely be in AAA by July as well if he continues to dominate in Texas. Blanton may have more value to another team than he does for us, and it would make sense to trade him in that scenario.

Similarly, the incredible performance of the A’s relievers makes trading Street an easier proposition for Beane. Devine and Casilla have been incredible, and it’s not like they are one year wonders, as both pitchers were top relief prospects before having success this year. Brown has been very good as well, and has great stuff. With guys like Ziegler and Blevins waiting in the wings in AAA, trading Street is possible.

As I’ve said before, I think the odds are against the A’s trading either Street or Blanton during the season, because if you look at the history of July trades, veterans only get traded when they have expiring contracts. Veteran trades usually occur in the offseason for whatever reason, and I think Blanton and Street are likely to finish the year in Oakland. However, given the success of the A’s young pitching, it would not surprise me to see Beane pull the trigger on Blanton or Street irregardless of what the A’s record is in July.

I agree with you that some people are overestimating the amount of work left to do. And I certainly agree that we have to go for it this year. That does not mean we should sell out to go for it, but it does mean not sabotaging our chances by making obvious sacrifice-the-present-for-the-future moves. A fast start is a precious asset that should be maximized (like any asset). I’m always intrigued by fans who are more excited by the shimmering image of a powerhouse team in 3 years and a top prospect ranking in BA than they are by actually having a real, current team win games and take its shot in the postseason. Some people see propect accumulation as an end in itself (really, they fetishize prospects).

That said, we could subtract one of the six starters and still have a damn fine, pennant-drive-worthy rotation. For obvious reasons it would be best to have a 6th man in reserve, because when injury strikes I don’t want the best 5th starter option to be DiNardo or Braden. But if Gio Gonzalez (or possibly Meyer or even Simmons) can establish themselves as someone who could step in when needed, and if Harden et al stay healthy for two months or more so we still have the starter surplus, Blanton could be traded to fill present and future needs without significantly hurting our chances this season. (Looks like BlameChannel beat me to the “Post” button making this same point.)

I’m not saying it will happen. I am saying you’re overstating the situation by flatly saying it won’t happen.

Ellis, on the other hand, I agree is not going anywhere. There’s no adequate backup plan; trading him would hurt the team. Whatever problem we solve with the return we get for Ellis is unlikely to outweigh the problem we create by doing so.

I do think that if Blanton goes, the return would include a major-league or major-league-ready component – e.g. a LaRoche or a Lillibridge.

Best case—repeat best case (and I am one of the optimists around here)—we’ve got a 90+ win team that would probably not go very far in the playoffs if it got there.

Why?

Not enough offense. And the kind of lineup that will flail—and fail—against the type of quality pitching (Boston, Angels) we would likely to be pitted against in the playoffs. We will need major improvements from the likes of Thomas, Ellis, Barton, Buck and Hannahan to be more than an average offense this year. Or an infusion of Chavez or Gonzalez. Will some of those guys get better as the season progresses? Undoubtedly. But Brown’s not going to drive in 130. And someone will invariably get hurt. And a couple of the above probably never will produce much.

So if Beane’s true mission is to try to win a champiionship—is he better off playing a spotty hand this year—maybe we make the playoffs, maybe we don’t. And crapshoot philosophy or not, if we do make it we’re probably not going all that far—or still trying to build an even stronger hand for next year and beyond?

I think the answer to that question is self-evident.

Anything is possible in sports, but I think the most likely July situation is this:

The A’s have faded from their hot start, as they continue to struggle to hit and the pitching cools down. But they don’t fall apart completely, though, and are at or a bit above .500.

The Angels don’t slow down much, and they lead the division by 4 or 5. The A’s are one of the teams in theoretical contention for a Wild Card spot.

I agree with the 1999 analogy. Back then, Beane traded his best starter but made another deal to try to help that season. I can see the same thing happening now. Beane will keep his eyes on the prize, but will still try to take actions to win this season if that’s a realistic possibility.

In an ideal world, the A’s win the World Series. Realistically, we may be getting the next best thing: an overachieving team that contends for much of the season but fades just enough to ensure that some MLB-ready prospects (Gonzalez) get playing time.

I agree with madmongoose that the team’s focus needs to be bolstering the offense. Blanton is obviously a trading chip, and will remain one even if the team is winning the division, although I wouldn’t be as eager to trade him then. He’s still the only starter I really feel I can count on to be solid in August or September. Harden will almost certainly be hurt. Duchscherer might be hurt. The others are almost certain to cool.

Another factor to consider: The A’s need hitting, in this and future seasons, but their payroll is quite low. They can afford to spend some money, either on a rent-a-player for this season or on a longer-term solution in the offseason.

I don’t know the exact verbiage but I seem to remember Beane usually espousing this philosophy every year around the deadline, and I think that this year is no different. While the team being in contention will definitely change the dynamic of any deals that go down this year, I still don’t think that we can flatly say that no veterans will be traded. If a scenario arises where we could trade a veteran player for prospects that would improve the team for the future without torpedoing our chances this year I would expect the deal to be made.

With the depth we have on this team, especially on the mound, I could see a few scenarios where a Blanton or Street could be traded.

and I say that as a huge Blanton fan. It’s just that the difference between Blanton and the next best option we have is quite small right now.

This organization has some huge holes. We have little or no help coming up at SS or 2B, we have no mashers at corner OF positions, and noone who’s going to play CF in the long run. Beane is excellent at finding above-replacement value players on the cheap, but it’s going to be really hard for this to be a good offense without some sort of significant contribution from one of the up the middle positions, and virtually impossible as long as we’re running out corner OFs who can’t play defense (Cust) or have a .700 OPS (brown or sweeney).

But I have to disagree with you on either your philosophy, or your choice of words. (Giving you the benefit of the doubt)

“Incredibly unlikely” that a “key player” will be traded?

I may not need to, but let me remind you, that the A’s had just traded away Tim Hudson, and days later turned around and traded Mark Mulder. Its safe to say, at least in my opinion, that nobody saw that coming. Mulder still had two years on his deal, whereas Huddy was in his final year.

Now yes, it turned out that trade paid handsome dividends to our team, but that trade alone throws out the point, in my opinion at least, that Blanton (as an example) coudln’t be traded. The team was still considered a contender in the AL West at the time of the trade, and Mulder was supposed to be a big part of that.

With that being said, why couldn’t the A’s trade Blanton on or before July 31st? I’d say that the rotation and bullpen now is just as deep, if not deeper, than it was then.

HIs OPS indicates that his RBI totals are a total fluke. Would any teams bite?

It could give the same kind of boost.