He doesn’t have anything left to prove in the minors. He’s pitched well enough to have a spot in ANY team’s rotation. Maybe they could even work something out where there’s some type of 6-man rotation without having get skip Blanton (even though Blanton’s been the worst pitcher this year).

Let’s face it… Harden probably won’t make his start. If he does, he’ll get hurt 3 starts down the road.

Duke deserves a chance in the rotation but he’s as brittle as… we… peanut brittle. So, my feeling is that both Smith and Eveland will basically both get 25 starts this year, which is probably about perfect for rookies.

get = to
we = well

Geez!

Looking at the two players minor league careers, you see many similarities. Eveland has thrown 413.2 innings, walked 127, struck out 405, with a 2.61 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Smith has thrown 358.1 innings, walked 105, struck out 309, with a 3.27 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Eveland has a better strikeout percentage, but other than that the numbers are very similar. Both players are 25. Statistically, there is nothing that jumps out to pick one over the other.

However, there are two reasons why I think Eveland stays in the rotation if it is a choice of him or Smith being demoted. First, Eveland has a bit more stuff than Smith, and therefore has more potential to improve and adjust as hitters do. Smith is always going to be a live-on-the-edge type of pitcher that is going to get shelled if he gets the ball up or misses corners. To his credit, he has pitched great in the majors so far. To Eveland’s credit, he has pitched well also and with refinement can improve. Smith is very unlikely to improve, and hitters are going to adjust.

The second reason I think Eveland stays is mental. He has already been in the majors twice and has been demoted, and has been labeled a failed prospect. Demoting him to the minors is likely to hurt his confidence, and that is something that has to be considered in making these types of decisions. Smith can go to the minors with his head held high, secure in the knowledge that he has done well and that the fragile players ahead of him will inevitably lead to future opportunities.

The A’s 6 pieces of a rotation are the most fascinating collection of strengths balancing weaknesses I’ve ever seen at the major league level. Consider the following:

1) By all metrics, the two who have demonstrated the most skill at the big league level—by far—are Rich Harden and Justin Duchscherer. And yet those are the two with the biggest question marks—by far—as to their ability to pitch anywhere near a full season in the rotation. Or a half season, for that matter;

2) Of the 6, the two who have the lowest demonstrated skill level- with career ERA+ scores that are essentially league average—are Chad Gaudin and Joe Blanton. Yet they are the only two who have actually thrown about 200 IP in a season or more;

3) And the two lefties—for now—both appear to be deserving of a continued spot in the rotation—Smith has clearly better numbers but also one fewer start.

Slusser tipped this off already today—if Harden is successful on Sunday or whenever his next big league start occurs, it is probably likelier that Gaudin or Duchscherer go to the pen than that either lefty leaves the rotation.

about Eveland having 2 options remaining. I can’t see how that’s possible given the amount of service time he has, the number of times he’s gone from the minors to the majors, and so on.

If he only has one option left there’s no way you send him down for like 2 weeks.

before someone in the rotation goes down again…. That being said, i wouldn’t mind seeing the six man rotation because i am worried about the strain on the young arms by the end of the season, as well as the fragile piece of glass that is Rich Harden’s arm. A six man rotation might pay off by the end of the season…

Then again, it might not when we are out of contention because we chose not to use a healthy blanton and harden as much as possible

According to Cots, Eveland was first added to the Brewers’ 40-man roster in July of 2005, which means his option years were 2005-2007. I think I’m interpreting this correctly from ESPN’s transaction primer.

One other observation picked up from Beyond the Boxscore:
“Smith’s BABIP (.226) and xBABIP (.292) don’t agree with each other nor does his 1.91 K/BB rate spell well for when those extra hits do come back to bite him. Eveland however looks quite legit, with a small margin between his BABIP and xBABIP and therefore a K/BB rate which shouldn’t kill him even if the small margin is made up.”

Player FIP xFIP

Eveland 3.29 4.13
Blanton 3.44 4.32
Duke 3.51 2.78
Smith 3.87 3.98
Gaudin 4.05 4.21

There isn’t a big spread in performance here, but the edge goes to Eveland. First, Smith was the last to get called up, so when he goes down again it should be easier to tell him. Eveland also gets a higher ground ball % by a large margain (49% to 37.5%), which makes him much better suited to succeed with the current A’s defensive alignment.

There are dozens of minor differences to argue one way or the other, but if it’s my call I’m sticking with the GB% advantage.

he still have a chance to prove what he can be. when healthy he is the best pitcher in the game hands down. it just seems like he had rushed to come back from a few injuries before. i think the A’s should take it a bit slower with him. let him truly recover to 100% before putting him in the bullpen.

As soon as he can prove his health over any length of time, the A’s will deal him away. With all the young pitching promise he will be dealt before he becomes a free agent. Although he must prove that he is healthy for a period of at least 10 + starts in a row.

Hey all, is there a bay area sports radio station that you can listen to on the web that talks A’s baseball at all? I’ve been searching around but haven’t found much yet.

How could anyone watching the A’s this year possibly argue for removing either Smith or Eveland? Even in a “best of a bad situation” context, it just makes no sense. It would be one thing if either guy seemed to be doing it with mirrors, just getting lucky in terms of success so far. But both have pitched superbly, and both just threw their best games. So, no, Beane is no fool. He isn’t going to drop one of these guys from the rotation unless they do something to deserve it.

The thought of losing either of those guys from the rotation is unfortunate, but what can you do? It’s a nice problem to have, and I anticipate either one of their services being needed sooner rather than later, unfortunately.

Don’t know how old Eveland is but Smith is 24!!! Smith is very poised and composed on the mound. How many rookies could do in the first month what he has done.?Remember, Smith was a non-roster invitee to Spring training and did better than the Brass had expected. Maybe that’s why the Brass took so long to make a decision on the fifth starter spot. Haven’t been an A’s fan long, but the proof is in the pudding. Go with the five guys who give you the best chance to win – screw their age and years left til arbitration. This is baseball and the name of the game is wins. Which five give the A’s the best chance of winning. As I just read on the A’s website, the Rockies are inquiring about Harden or Blanton but the A’s said no way – not know. Geaux Tigers and Geaux Smith.