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Pitching Staff/ 25 Man Roster-- Redux

With Foulke and Harden both scheduled to be activated before week's end, and Buck presumably not far behind, Beane and Co. face a pretty interesting set of decisions:

1. 11 or 12 pitchers? 12 is a good hedge against overwork, but the way the starters have been performing it seems like a luxury. And who would be the odd man out of the position players? Murphy's the only IF backup; Sweeney is hitting and provides an important PH/DH when Frank can't go/sub for Barton against certain lefties role; Bowen of course must stay; That means one of the OFers must probably go-- Obviously Cust and Brown seem safe. Does Buck deserve a slot? Or are we better off just going with Sweeney/Denorfia for a while longer-- at least until CarGon is ready, in which case you could jettison them both and bring Buck and Gonzalez up. Or should all 3 be given the chance to prove themselves before Gonzalez is ready, and thus we have to go with 14 position players?

2. And if it is 11 pitchers, then the 5 starters are:

Blanton-Harden and who?? One could make a case for or against any of the remaining four. I would think Duke might actually be the most vulnerable, given his smaller sample size track record and difficulty going deep in games, plus his ability to relieve. Smith might be the odd man out based on seniority, but if he does anything like yesterday next weekend how can you possibly send him down? I actually think Gaudin might be the least impressive of the six, but he did throw quite effectively for half the season last year.

The bullpen seems clearer. Casilla and Embree are joined by Foulke in the principal setup roles for Street. Devine and Brown are the middle-to-long men-- DiNardo or Saarloos would be a luxury-- if Duke gets put back in the pen, you jettison Brown or Devine or go with 7 relievers. That might be the reason to take Smith out of play, in that he can continue his role as a starter in AAA until the next pitching injury-- which would presumably be Harden.

I'll take a shot at this and predict that sometime next week, Ryan Sweeney is back at AAA, joined by Greg Smith.

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Smith is pitching far to well to be sent down.

Braden will be sent down, and either Sweeney will be optioned to AAA or Davis will be DFA’d.

by mikev on May 5, 2008 9:02 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

6-man rotation, or Duke/Eveland/Smith to the pen?

Or are you working on the assumption that Harden will throw

And what did we do once we discovered a rift in the fourth dimension? We launched a monkey into it. @('.')@

by monkeyball on May 5, 2008 9:34 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

%$$%#$^&*%

... Harden will throw less than 30 pitches in his first start back, do the whole “won’t miss his next start … pushed back 1-2 days … will skip his turn in the rotation but won’t ‘miss a start’ ... misses a start … back on the DL” routine?

And what did we do once we discovered a rift in the fourth dimension? We launched a monkey into it. @('.')@

by monkeyball on May 5, 2008 9:36 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Duke to the pen.

Braden optioned to AAA, making the rotation:

Blanton
Harden
Gaudin
Eveland
Smith

by mikev on May 5, 2008 10:28 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thats what I was thinking as well

+1

When will then be now? Soon.

by Syphon on May 5, 2008 10:32 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

this idea sounds about right,

but how will Duke react? I mean, it’s no secret he wants to be a starter. He seems like a pretty easy going guy, so is it popular opinion that he would accept his role in the bullpen versus ‘pulling a Linden’ and complaining to the media?

"Put some ice on it. After that, there's nothing a few beers won't take care of. " -Pink

by OrlandoAsFan on May 5, 2008 12:53 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

If he could stay healthy and go more than 5 innings every time he starts

he’d probably have more of a case to remain a starter.

by mikev on May 5, 2008 12:55 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm wondering whether Eveland's tender elbow

might not be a concern. If he continues to have problems with it he could be a candidate for the DL.

I’d really prefer to see Buck start hitting consistently, playing every day at AAA, before he gets activated. (By the way, I noticed he started the game in AAA playing center field.)

by OaklandSi on May 5, 2008 9:12 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

agree

I heard VInce say that. I hope he gets a couple of weeks there. If he does well, the send Sweeney back. Sweeney doen’t have a job when patrol craft is ready anyway.

by Future Ed on May 5, 2008 11:25 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

he sure looked fine tonight

"It's not my fault your team's so shitty." -Steve Friend, head coach, Chabot College, to Laney College's head coach, who asked why we scored so many runs after we beat Laney 30-3 in 2006

by flipgatey3 on May 5, 2008 10:53 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Braden for Foulke, Sweeney for Buck, ? for Harden

There is not a chance that Brown or Devine goes anywhere. Foulke was a wild-ass play by Beane, but there’s no way he sends out one of the younger guys who are performing like studes for Foulke. I can see Braden going back to AAA, which does leave the pen righty heavy. Perhaps Smith or Eveland goes to the pen when Harden comes back? That’s a tough one because they really need those guys ready to start when Harden next goes down. I can’t imagine pulling Smith from the rotation at this point. So maybe Eveland to the DL if he feels anything funny on his next start. Buck in CF at Sacto tells me that Sweeney will get the boot when Buck is ready to come back. They could also try to slip Davis through waivers and go with 12 pitchers to see if Harden is really healthy.

by boilerdan on May 5, 2008 9:37 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Hard questions

My personal moves would be:

Sweeney to AAA
Davis to waivers
Braden to AAA

and go to a six-man rotation until Harden’s arm falls off again.

I don’t know that the team will do this, however.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on May 5, 2008 9:49 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

What has Denorfia and Buck done...

...to deserve waiving Davis and sending Sweeney to the minors? Buck does not have the major league clout he thinks he has and did not do anything before going on thje DL. I am suspicious of AA players in Buck’s situation b/c he may need several weeks to determine 1) will his stroke return and 2) is he helathy enough given the nature of shin splints (think tendinitis of the lower extremities) to play consistently. He hasn’t shown that her could be an above average CF.
Davis is interesting b/c while he doesn’t walk much he hs hit for a decent average throughout his career and certainly is the fastest player on the team.

I agree about Braden. Wh are too deep with our staff to really need him at this point.

"I've been accused of using too many words...I suppose that's like accusing Mozart of using too many notes." Bill King

by Gerard on May 5, 2008 10:06 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Denorfia is, despite the team's odd insistence on playing Sweeney over him in CF,

just better than Sweeney in all areas of the game right now.

There’s something to be said for cutting one of the DHs instead of Davis. I just can’t quite bring myself to cut bait on Mike Sweeney yet. But I suppose it’s the disciplined thing to do.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on May 5, 2008 10:43 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

what is up

with all the playing time for Sweeney?

I think Eveland and Harden should share a spot in the rotation, until its Evelands again.

by Future Ed on May 5, 2008 11:28 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I wonder if it's a Beane-Geren issue

We’ve all been presuming that Beane’s got a man-crush on RSweeney … but Geren, after all, is the guy writing out the lineups.

And what did we do once we discovered a rift in the fourth dimension? We launched a monkey into it. @('.')@

by monkeyball on May 5, 2008 11:45 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Prove it!

While I like Denorfia, there is no wayhe has proven himself superior to Sweeney. There may be a difference in degrees but there isn’t a qualititative difference b/w the two players. Denorfia has been injured for the past year. He should be the one in AAA playing every day so that his skills are sharpened.

"I've been accused of using too many words...I suppose that's like accusing Mozart of using too many notes." Bill King

by Gerard on May 5, 2008 12:59 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Look at their stats over the past few seasons.

Denorfia is a better hitter for average, a better hitter for power, and a better on base guy. From watching them play center field, he’s a better outfielder. He’s a better baserunner, as well.

He’s also a lot older, so this situation may not last more than a few years. All the more reason to make use of CD’s most productive seasons rather than some of Sweeney’s LEAST productive ones.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on May 5, 2008 1:53 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Here are the numbers

Now at least support what you claim. Otherwise…choose your words carefully.

http://10804241258.baseball.sportsline.com/players/do-player-compare/392533:489807/ytd:p/standard/

"I've been accused of using too many words...I suppose that's like accusing Mozart of using too many notes." Bill King

by Gerard on May 5, 2008 1:11 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Error, this is a private fantasy league?

Not overly helpful…

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on May 5, 2008 1:44 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

i assume

it was this year’s stats, not career stats. in which case, denorfia would still win. hmm.

"It's not my fault your team's so shitty." -Steve Friend, head coach, Chabot College, to Laney College's head coach, who asked why we scored so many runs after we beat Laney 30-3 in 2006

by flipgatey3 on May 5, 2008 10:54 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Why is Emil Brown safe?

I know he’s supposedly been “clutch” (which to me looks more like he’s a #5 hitter who gets up to bat a whole lot w/RISP), but his OBP is .296 and his SLG is .398, he’s 33 years old, and he’s one a one-year deal and isn’t going to be a part of this team after this season.

Sending Sweeney or Denorfia down could work, but I still don’t understand why Emil Brown is getting at bats. In my opinion, every at bat he gets not only typically hurts the A’s chances of winning now (Because he mostly sucks with a few bright spots), but he’s taking an at bat away from a younger, more talented, and more deserving player.

http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/

by thejd44 on May 5, 2008 9:53 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Someone should write a diary about that.

"Tomorrow it may rain." - Leo Durocher

by andeux on May 5, 2008 10:13 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Stop beating my drum.

I’ve been saying that since he was signed. He’s creating a roster crunch in the OF that is fairly unnecessary.

by mikev on May 5, 2008 10:29 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

really inconsiderate of him to be

one of the league leaders in RBI

by OaklandSi on May 5, 2008 10:59 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

runs batted in do help win games

although they might not look as pretty as a high OBP

by OaklandSi on May 5, 2008 11:42 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wow, you were serious?

I thought that prior comment was sarcasm.

This comment is almost exactly the opposite of the truth. RBI’s are the “pretty” stat that means nothing. OBP wins ballgames, period.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on May 5, 2008 11:47 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

RBI's do help to win ballgames

I see it every time I watch a game, without fail. The issue is whether driving in runs is a skill or a matter of circumstance (maybe called “luck”) versus OBP, which is a skill.

by boilerdan on May 5, 2008 11:58 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

getting on base helps to win ballgames too

so do rbis.

Making outs helps to lose ballgames. Brown makes a ton of outs.

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on May 5, 2008 12:06 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

but if no one made any outs, the game would never end

Emil Brown: helping us to ward off our confrontation with the Infinite.

And what did we do once we discovered a rift in the fourth dimension? We launched a monkey into it. @('.')@

by monkeyball on May 5, 2008 12:22 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'd argue that both are actually just pretty stats

but I’m too lazy. By itself, all a RBI does is say how many times a run scored when the player had a plate appearance, which is utterly useless without a taking into account the number of opportunities weighted somehow with the level of difficulty in bringing that run in (i.e. runner on 3rd with no outs should be brought in, no runner and two outs, less likely to be brought in). By itself, OBP just tells us how often they got on, also somewhat useless without accounting for the circumstances they got on and how that relates to how often they wind up scoring (i.e. leadoff hr more important than the 2 out walk. both have value, but clearly the first circumstance as vastly more valuable than the latter, but that’s not reflected in just getting onbase). Clearly, this is useful on it’s own since getting on can lead to runs, but I don’t see the the standalone value nearly that special. In a way it’s in the same league as RBIs.

In search of a new signature. Say something funny and you may see your comment here!

by DMOAS on May 5, 2008 6:16 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I guess...

I mean, I suppose you could say that all you need (hitting-wise) is EqA and plate appearances… but while that will tell you who’s benefiting their team, it doesn’t say much about how they’re doing it, which is also helpful info. OBP is a “semi-tool” stat in that part of its value is in informing you about what a guy’s capabilities are. It’s not a “pure tool” stat like isolated power, however.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on May 5, 2008 6:22 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

i’m just of a sense that the majority of the stats that are being used aren’t quite as effective as they need to be and for the most part, many of them (esp. RBIs & BA) are severely lacking as a standard. OBP, SLG, & the like are certainly a generous step up from the what was used in the past, but i think (and i have absolutely nothing to back this up) that they’re still very weak in making evaluations. We’re just not smart enough or capable enough to record the necessary data that would be required to do a true evaluation, which is why we’re forced to use less effective means (all of which is probably stating the obvious or my ignorance, go ahead and take your pick). But that’s one of the reasons why something like clutch would be difficult to measure (which I believe in), but that’s nearly impossible to prove because we’re lacking an effective standard. People concentrate better under different circumstances. Some do better when there’s no pressure (unclutch) and some do better when they have the weight of the world on their shoulders (clutch). Some don’t matter (norm). Figuring out the exact extent of those situations and crossing it against the numbers of the opposition is problematic, you wind up with the fun on June 4 of odd years playing in domes above the 67th parallel we. In fairness, I’m clearly not even an expert on the current “most useful” stats, so really I’m left to intuition and finger crossing, but that’s worked well for me, .386 of the time.

In search of a new signature. Say something funny and you may see your comment here!

by DMOAS on May 5, 2008 6:37 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

oh no.

you just guaranteed like 50 more posts in this thread

Jeremy was safe. He jumped over the tag.

by mrrickyg on May 5, 2008 7:12 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's whats great about sports

No matter how hard the statheads try, there’s just no way to predict results 100% of the time. All of these stats help to differing degrees depending on infinite factors that can’t always be quantified and change from player to player, from minute to minute.

by Sacred#24 on May 6, 2008 9:25 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oy

Statheads, with very few exceptions, do not run analyses on baseball as some sort of research project. They do it because they see baseball as a game. Reading an analysis of a player is like reading a book on chess—it makes you better at the game. The purpose is not Absoloot Trooth.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on May 6, 2008 10:15 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

What's funny is, the only people who would ever think that stats should "predict results 100% of the time" ...

are the people criticizing “statheads”. Of course they don’t. Sports would suck if there was ever a way to predict anything 100% of the time. Stats allow us to understand and enjoy the game better. Every baseball fan is a “stathead”. You don’t have to be EQAing it with me, PT or Sal to be into stats. Batting average is a stat too. So are RBIs. So are wins …

It’s just silly to criticize stats for not being something they are not claiming to be. Although I’ll tell you what, I don’t like Shakespeare because his plays don’t expand my understanding of particle physics. Nor do I enjoy the work of John Dalton, as it gives me little to no insight into the travails of Titus Andronicus.

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on May 6, 2008 10:54 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I did not mean that to be negative...

Just the opposite. You’re right, all sports fans have some stathead in them and sports would suck if there was ever a way to predict anything 100% of the time. But for some reason you must think that the word stathead has a negative connotation. Would it help if I rephrase the above statement to, “No matter how hard us statheads try…”
My point to Paul (and I know he understands this) has just been that stats are only part of the equation. While you can (and should) use statistical analysis to develop and prove your hypothesis, it does not change the fact that you’re still just hypothesizing.
Are you guys familiar with the cerebral hemispheres of the brain? Broadly speaking, the left side of the brain is responsible for more analytical, linear algorithmic processing, while the right side is responsible for more intuitive, holistic algorithmic processing. We each use these hemispheres to various degrees, but some of us are leaning more heavily to one side or the other.

by Sacred#24 on May 6, 2008 11:28 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

What's odd is, as a "stathead" ...

and someone who makes his living by doing analyzing hospital quality of care … according to the spinning ballerina test, I’m right brain dominant, while my brother, the musician, is left brain dominant … go figure …

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on May 6, 2008 11:41 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

You have that backwards

A high OBP helps win games, though it may not look as pretty as a bunch of RBIs.

"Tomorrow it may rain." - Leo Durocher

by andeux on May 5, 2008 11:52 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Didn't you get the memo?

Paul is always right so take it back!

by Sacred#24 on May 5, 2008 11:54 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

OK

I’m getting a little sick of this line.

There’s a big difference between “thinking everything you say is true when you say it” (which I do… if I thought something was false, I wouldn’t lie and say it was true) and “thinking everything you’ve ever said has always been true” (which I most certainly don’t—I’ve made lots of errors in my time, and I’ll cheerfully acknowledge any correction).

One is ingenuous. The other is conceited. There’s kind of a big difference.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on May 5, 2008 12:24 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well I know my SH** don't stink, my breath on the other hand...

Dragon Naturally Speaking won’t even work for me anymore.

by theblackpearl on May 5, 2008 12:26 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not to mention the fact

that I was agreeing with you.

"Tomorrow it may rain." - Leo Durocher

by andeux on May 5, 2008 12:30 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

for the record, i appreciate you piping up when somebody makes a highly debatable comment, and im glad you do so with consistency so that I don’t have to.

by oakinboston on May 5, 2008 12:38 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sorry,

But when you say things like “This comment is almost exactly the opposite of the truth. RBI’s are the "pretty" stat that means nothing. OBP wins ballgames, period.”

by Sacred#24 on May 5, 2008 1:21 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

...then?

What?

The fact that I hate RBIs as a stat proves that I think I’m always right?

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on May 5, 2008 1:57 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I was leaving it as a fill-in-the-blank

... but since you asked…
“Exactly the opposite of the truth” is a lie so you’re essentially calling another ANer a liar for valuing a certain stat more than you. OK, you hate RBI’s, I get it.
But the argument could be made that in this post-moneyball era OBP is gaining as a more acceptable barometer for offensive production, and especially with OPS being so valued, could also be considered a “pretty” stat- especially around here.
And if “OBP wins ballgames, period” then what could possibly be a prettier stat than that?

by Sacred#24 on May 5, 2008 3:16 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hmm ... not quite a direct quote ...

or, to be even more honest, taken out of context.

Paul said, “Almost exactly the opposite of the truth”. I’m quite sure he wasn’t calling you a liar. I’m fairly sure he was calling you mistaken. I would certainly hope that he was giving you the benefit of the doubt, in that way.

In this case, though, I would say the real truth is somewhere in between. Brown has not simply been in the right place at the right time, as so many RBI champions are - he has been clutch (which I would suggest is largely a function of random distribution than actual skill) - so his performance, as represented by those RBIs has helped the team win ballgames. Of course, since he has been quite bad without RISP, and those performances are likely to even out over the long haul, I would not take those RBIs to mean much prospectively.

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on May 5, 2008 3:28 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I thought it was fairly obvious

that in this case “pretty” was being contrasted with “functional,” not “ugly.” (And if you dislike that contrast, blame it on the OP, not me.)

But more to the point—your first sentence is ridiculous, for two reasons. First, when someone says “A is true and B is not true,” the exact opposite of that is “A is not true and B is true.” Just saying “the original sentence is false” doesn’t mean “the opposite of the first sentence is true.” If both A and B are true, the original sentence (A true, B false) is false.

And second, much more importantly, false does not mean a lie. Lying involves intent and I did not, anywhere, imply that OaklandSi was attempting to deceive. I just thought (and think) that he was wrong.

Believe me, if and when I think someone’s being maliciously dishonest, they’re going to get a lot more out of me than “you’re wrong.” I hate liars and always have. But one of the more refreshing things about sports blogs (as compared with, say, politics…) is that people have very little reason to lie. Generally speaking, they just say what they think.

Still can’t figure out what this has to do with me supposedly thinking that I’m infallible.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on May 5, 2008 3:42 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sorry you guys had to waste so much time trying to prove me wrong

When all I was doing was making a joke. Maybe if I threw in some statistics?
At any rate, could it be possible (just a question so don’t freak out) that sometimes you pose opinions as if they’re facts? And in so doing often imply that others are somehow wrong and you’re right?

by Sacred#24 on May 5, 2008 4:17 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

It was a joke at my expense

and, worse, it wasn’t funny. I’m not trying to “prove you wrong.” I’m trying to get you to stop taking gratuitous cheap shots at me.

As for the latter… have you ever said “Player x sucks?” Because if so, you are “posing an opinion as if it was a fact.” It’s both pedantic and ridiculous to insist that everyone preface their opinions with “my opinion is…” instead of just saying what their opinion is.

And I should bloody well hope I’m implying that someone else is wrong and I’m right, if I’m disagreeing with them over something. Otherwise I’m doing a pretty poor job of stating my position!

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on May 5, 2008 4:37 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Don't worry

You didn’t. I have a thick skin.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on May 5, 2008 5:06 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

RH BAT with Power

Look at our lefty-righty splits. I think we need him.

"I've been accused of using too many words...I suppose that's like accusing Mozart of using too many notes." Bill King

by Gerard on May 5, 2008 10:31 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

He's slugging under .400

That’s not much power.

http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/

by thejd44 on May 5, 2008 10:36 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

He has had 18% more PAs than average with runners on and 8% more with RISP ...

That’s not very much … his RBIs are almost entirely a function of his performance with RISP (which is almost certainly a function of luck, primarily)

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on May 5, 2008 11:26 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

is this the kind of analysis andeux loathes, too?

And what did we do once we discovered a rift in the fourth dimension? We launched a monkey into it. @('.')@

by monkeyball on May 5, 2008 11:46 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I hope not ...

it isn’t the most sophisticated analysis, possible, but I’d like to think it’s of a reasonable quality, for what it is …

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on May 5, 2008 1:11 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yup.

With men on, his OPS is 1058. With RISP, 1204. WIth the bases empty, 394. His OPS with men on is 76 percent better than the league average, with men on.

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on May 5, 2008 12:17 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

wow

"It's not my fault your team's so shitty." -Steve Friend, head coach, Chabot College, to Laney College's head coach, who asked why we scored so many runs after we beat Laney 30-3 in 2006

by flipgatey3 on May 5, 2008 10:57 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I like "luck"

..and he’s got it!...primarily speaking, that is. When he runs out, I’ll drop him.
This is the kind of analysis I love by the way.

"I've been accused of using too many words...I suppose that's like accusing Mozart of using too many notes." Bill King

by Gerard on May 5, 2008 12:53 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Please play poker with me

sometime.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on May 5, 2008 12:55 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

i thought you didn't know how to play?

Jeremy was safe. He jumped over the tag.

by mrrickyg on May 5, 2008 1:47 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I know HOW to play...

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on May 5, 2008 1:58 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hot Topic For 1st week of May

The most vulnerable pitchers are Eveland (Elbow) and worse numbers c/w Smith, and Braden. Eveland should go to the pen to buy some time for his elbow to be diagnosed further. A case could be made to DL him but then we are potentially losing him for 2 weeks. By placing him on the DL it opens a spot up for Foulke in the pen and for Harden in the rotation.

Send down Denorfia…or not. Buck appeared to need time to get his swing back. Not to mention whether or not he is durable enough to return. Denorfia has options so he would appear the most vulnerable.

"I've been accused of using too many words...I suppose that's like accusing Mozart of using too many notes." Bill King

by Gerard on May 5, 2008 9:54 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

OK, what's the deal here?

I’ve heard nothing from anyone anywhere, other than AN posters, that suggests Eveland actually has an injured elbow.

All he said was that it “cracked” while he was on the mound Wednesday. I’m sure he’d have noticed by now if he had fractured it again or something.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on May 5, 2008 10:00 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think it was in one of the articles that "it had been feeling a little tender" prior to that game

That said, you can’t just put him on the DL when he’s not really injured and ready to pitch, because that’s what you want to do with the roster. The players might start to not be honest with the training staff if they start pulling that kind of shit.

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on May 5, 2008 10:06 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

So we should put our heads in the sand like an ostrich...

and pretend he’s okay? ESPECIALLY, with our injury history the last thing this team needs is another young arm to go down. I just got word yesterday about GioGon and Fautino DLS both being shut down. Even if Eveland is perfectly healthy, who would you rather have in the rotation, he or Smith? At least if he goes to the pen, this buys time to evaluate him further.

"I've been accused of using too many words...I suppose that's like accusing Mozart of using too many notes." Bill King

by Gerard on May 5, 2008 10:29 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think someone's having issues with reading comprehension...

(Gerard, I mean, not you.)

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on May 5, 2008 10:50 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I posted a link to one of several articles

that he broke his elbow while in high school.

He also has said he’s had the tenderness in his elbow for a while.

by OaklandSi on May 5, 2008 11:00 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

that's actually pretty good news

I imagine that can cause him longterm lingering soreness but without actually affecting his pitching, structurally. And it would make a lot of sense for what we saw.

Jeremy was safe. He jumped over the tag.

by mrrickyg on May 5, 2008 1:59 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

...not going to happen

You don’t trade one of your major roster components for crap just to avoid designating a random 25th man for assignment.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on May 5, 2008 10:46 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think the A's have the guns in the minors to make that move.

Worst case, the A’s have have to bring up Gio or one of the AA studs to make a few spot starts and get their feet wet. I was totally against dealing Blanton before the season started but at this point? The A’s look like they are loaded with prospects (many of which are pitching extremely well) and Blanton has some value to a contender.

Hot dogs, get your hot dogs.

by jjham15 on May 5, 2008 10:57 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Le

ver
age.

When you are forced to make a move, you don’t have it. When you’re dictating terms, you have it.

The guy who makes the first phone call is the one who is asking for terms, and the terms he gets are likely to be worse for it.

I have no objections to trading Blanton in principle—it just makes no sense, from a negotiating standpoint, to twist yourself into a corner over Rajai Davis.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on May 5, 2008 11:03 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Or to believe that Harden isn't the Easter Bunny

... You know, make one appearance a year.

by Sacred#24 on May 5, 2008 11:20 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Its not like we are suggesting DFAing the guy...

The A’s still have the same leverage they had during the off-season because they have plenty of time to make a decision on the roster. At this point in the season they have options, like sticking Buck in AAA until further notice or leaving Hardin in Sac until he can prove that he can pitch more than 5 starts without getting hurt. Eveland and Smith have been very good, as has Gaudin and Duke/Hardin (when healthy). The A’s still have Saarloos and Denardo ready to step in besides the young arms filtered at all levels of the minors. The only issue I see with dealing Blanton is that he really hasn’t been that great this season so maybe Beane gets a little less but he was going to have to come down in his overinflated asking price either way. This is a good time to sell, a lot of teams are off to a slow start and might be willing to deal to get back in the race before its too late.

Hot dogs, get your hot dogs.

by jjham15 on May 5, 2008 11:24 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

People are secretly campaigning for the mercurial Cal center

to be selected highly in the upcoming NBA draft.

It’s a form of subliminal advertising.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on May 5, 2008 11:29 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

My bad, too much Cal basketball...

and its not like I’ve got to see his name on the back of his jersey much for the last 4 years.

Hot dogs, get your hot dogs.

by jjham15 on May 5, 2008 11:34 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Beane's posture re Blanton appears to be the correct one

which is that he’s sitting back listening to offers, but isn’t in any hurry to make a move.

I’m not sure why anyone would think that acquiring Blanton would get them “back in the race.” He’s a mid-rotation starter, which means that he’s only a MAJOR upgrade if your rotation is terrible. (He’d be a minor upgrade to every team, but minor upgrades don’t carry the same asking price.) And if your rotation is terrible… you’ve got issues anyway.

An added problem is that one of the major players in Blanton trade talks, Cincy, just fired their GM. They are probably no longer in play here.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on May 5, 2008 11:35 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

A guy like Blanton can do a lot for a pitching staff.

Cupcakes eats innings which reduces the strain on a pen. At worst he is a 3rd starter for most MLB teams, so although his 4 era isn’t that impressive, a pitcher who averages 7 innings and starts 30+ times a season can do wonders on an overtaxed pitching staff.

Hot dogs, get your hot dogs.

by jjham15 on May 5, 2008 11:42 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not saying he's not valuable

He is. He’s very valuable. He’s probably 5-15 Runs Above Average a season once you factor in the beneficial effect he has on a team’s bullpen management.

He’s just not the kind of valuable that turns a crummy team into a contender. What he is is the kind of valuable that KEEPS a contender a contender… and those kinds of trades tend to happen later in the year.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on May 5, 2008 11:45 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

he also doesn't have the body type, K rate, JUGS readings, or W totals ...

... that drive a bad GM to overvalue him.

I don’t think Beane trades him mid-season, b/c I agree with your assessment—no one’s going to offer all that much for him in July.

And what did we do once we discovered a rift in the fourth dimension? We launched a monkey into it. @('.')@

by monkeyball on May 5, 2008 11:49 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Haven't been in the clubhouse lately...

... but I imagine his jugs are just fine, thank you.

President and CEO of the Ryan Sweeney Apologists Consortium

by Joey C. on May 5, 2008 12:40 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Die, you %$$%#&* foul-mouthed blogger!

< / Bissinger >

And what did we do once we discovered a rift in the fourth dimension? We launched a monkey into it. @('.')@

by monkeyball on May 5, 2008 12:48 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

The milk jugs, however...

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on May 5, 2008 12:50 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

No it's not as if you are DFAing the guy

BUT, most GMs are not stupid and blind. They can see that you’re trying to clear roster space.

It’s not whether Saarloos or DiNardo can fill in or whatever. It’s selling low(er) on Blanton because you want to avoid DFAing Emil Brown or Rajai Davis. I like Rajai, but I’d take a better trade package over a poorer package + Davis / Brown, everyday of the week and twice on Sundays.

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on May 5, 2008 12:23 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thoughts

I would go with 11 pitchers because of the unresolved questions for the offense, where there is less flexibility.

Offense:
1)I think maybe they should keep Sweeney around awhile longer, as insurance against Frank being done. On the other hand, the problems with that are that he is currently a wasted roster spot/taking pt from Barton and that if insurance is the reason to keep him around, the Frank-being-possibly-done issue needs a month more since Frank has most of the upside of the two, and the roster crunch will come before then. Plus, even without Frank, Sweeney + Cust-in-the-OF is not really any better than Cust DHing, with some other OFer. Basically, I just convinced myself that Sweeney should go, nice guy and everything…

2) I would rather keep Davis than Brown. Davis looks to be a plus plus CFer and a great guy to have off the bench, whereas Brown looks to only have a platoon role.

3)To avoid that decision, which would lose one of those players, R. Sweeney should be the first to go. He’s a pretty worthless major league player at this point.

So… Buck should replace R. Sweeney, a possible 12th pitcher (if they do that) should replace M. Sweeney, and the Patrol Craft should replace Brown when he gets healthy.

Rotation:
I would send Eveland to AAA for Harden so he can keep making starts. Sending him to the bullpen would be be bad. He needs to make starts. He can come up to replace Harden at any time.

Foulke: Replaces Braden, I guess. I would not mind it if they just cut him… He’s better than Braden as a reliever, but it’s a bit risky to go without a long man.

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on May 5, 2008 10:23 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I think you're misunderstanding Foulke and Brown's roles

which are a. to act as potential trade bait, and b. to game the system and potentially accumulate extra sandwich picks as Type B free agents.

I’d also have a problem with burning up Eveland’s last option this season just to bring Harden back for one or two starts. It seems unnecessary and really limits the team’s options (no pun intended) for future years.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on May 5, 2008 10:58 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Brown: He does not have trade value. If he does, it’s for another middle reliever or fringy starter. As for compensation: we’d have to offer him arby (along with keeping him on the team the whole year) . It’s not clear that they’d even do that because they’re not going to want him on the team. ‘m not sure anyone would sign him anyway. Plus, he was the very last to qualify for type B this past offseason, so he’ll presumably have to do better this year than he did in 2005. The idea that they should play him in the hopes that all three of 1)he qualifies for type B; 2)doesn’t accept arby; and 3)some other team actually signs him, is an extremely marginal decision. Even if it works, what we get out of it is some player who will most likely never reach the majors anyway! Getting any of that sort of value out of him is a longshot.

Foulke I suppose could be trade bait (but really not very good trade bait). He is also a candidate for getting injured again, and for giving up a lot of HRs.

I don’t really see a problem with burning Eveland’s last option. He’s major league ready right now, and he will be next year. He’ll be a staple of the rotation next year, and I don’t know why they’d need to send him down. And someone has to go down if Harden starts…

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on May 5, 2008 11:12 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Cliff Lee

would not be starting for the Cleveland Indians, putting up his 0.04 ERA or whatever it’s at right now, if they had squandered his options pointlessly.

It’s an important cautionary tale. You really do not want to burn a guy’s last option unless there’s no alternative or he’s clearly not good enough to start for a competitive team.

As for the other two—while I’m not by any means guaranteeing that they’ll make it through the season, I feel like you need to give them a bit more time before cutting them loose.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on May 5, 2008 11:17 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think a low level prospect

Would be a nice pick-up for Brown as the move wouldn’t cause any roster issues. If Kendall and Kotsay had some value left then an outfielder who can actually drive in runners should be worth something.

by Sacred#24 on May 5, 2008 11:25 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Kendall is C, Kotsay a CF,

and they were still perceived (at least by some) as “solid veterans” or something like that because they used to be very good. Brown is perceived as a head case… I would be surprised if Brown could get as much as Kendall (which wasn’t much) if anything.

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on May 5, 2008 11:31 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sadly, I think the only people who perceive him as such

are Kool-aid drinking traditionalist A’s fans.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on May 5, 2008 11:36 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

which is what he meant...

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on May 5, 2008 11:38 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

No, he's dead serious...

He is an RBI machine!!!! How about Brown and Suzuki for A-rod? The Yanks need a catcher!

by Sacred#24 on May 5, 2008 11:42 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

You're kidding....

right? We really don’t need A-rod’s injured body to go along with a monstrous salary.

by muffinpryde on May 5, 2008 4:38 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

as well as Geren

who continues to put him in the lineup based on his driving in lots of runs so far.

Perhaps they put Kool-Aid in the clubhouse water cooler?

by OaklandSi on May 5, 2008 11:45 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

but not a machine

a human man. Not a machine

by Future Ed on May 5, 2008 11:50 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't know all the criteria, but Brown's last couple of years, while not

outstanding, might be good enough for a comp pick after this year. The criteria seems to be very un stathead like.

by theblackpearl on May 5, 2008 11:47 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes and no

It doesn’t care about BBs, which is good for him, but it also underrates 2Bs compared to HRs. I’m not exactly sure what the criteria are either, but as I said, he was the very last type B, so…
http://www.sportscity.com/MLB/Elias-MLB-Rankings-DH-1B-OF

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on May 5, 2008 11:49 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Absolutely...

Michael Young ranked above A-Rod last season.

And the way to manipulate it is precisely the way the A’s are doing it—get a mediocre guy with a high but empty batting average, then bat him in a slot where he’ll get lots of RBI opps.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on May 5, 2008 11:50 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

If they cut M. Sweeney,

who backs up Barton at 1B? That’s more feasible when Chavez is back and Hannahan can play some 1B.

by boilerdan on May 5, 2008 11:44 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Nothing stopping Hannahan from doing that now if Barton needs a day off.

I’m not in any sort of rush to have him off the team, though, it’s just that he’s more expendable if the roster demands it.

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on May 5, 2008 11:47 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree with madmongoose below

Give Thomas a couple more weeks – if he’s not showing any power, he’s got to go, putting Cust back at DH and giving M. Sweeney some more ABs.

by boilerdan on May 5, 2008 11:49 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

If need be, either Hannahan plays 1st and Murphy 3rd,

or Ellis slides to 1st and Murphy plays 2nd.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on May 5, 2008 11:48 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Why not Cust?

I mean, throws from the infield generally aren’t as high in the air as fly balls to the outfield (there’s a Chuck Knoblauch joke in here somewhere) so it should be a little easier for him, and his not-so-good range in the OF will be hidden there.

by mikev on May 5, 2008 12:03 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I would bet my house

that someone has tried to make Cust a first baseman before.

I’m guessing it didn’t work out too well, since he’s still an outfielder.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on May 5, 2008 12:27 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I guess

But at the same time, Barton had failed attempts at converting from catcher to 3B and LF, so he was hidden at first base as well.

by mikev on May 5, 2008 12:30 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Assuming the mega "if"

Rich Harden being healthy, that is.

I see an 11 man staff of:

Blanton-Harden-Gaudin-Duke-one of the lefties

Street-Embree-Casilla-Foulke-Brown-Devine

Meaning Braden is gone and one of the lefty starters is vulnerable. I don’t see either Smith or Eveland going to the pen unless Foulke is deemed not ready to pitch regularly. But I also think Duchscherer is not a guarantee in the rotation by any means, and thus both Eveland and Smith could remain;

As to the 13/14 position players, I think it should be 14 to preserve some key flexibility.

Bowen, M Sweeney, Murphy, the starting IF plus Thomas and Suzuki bring them to 9.

5 more? Brown, Cust, Buck, Denorfia and Davis. I just can’t see that Sweeney has done enough to mandate that he stay. But if and when CarGOn is ready I think Buck is quite vulnerable if a ) he doesn’t start hitting and b) they remain in contention. Why not keep Davis as a defensive and pinchrunning option; Cust/Brown as a potential platoon; Gonzalez and Denorfia to fill it out. If Buck does start hitting than the ideal situation would leave both Denorfia and R Sweeney out of the mix, unless they are confident enough about Thomas (and Barton) to jettison M Sweeney. Buck plays right; Gonzales center; Cust/Brown in left.

The other in an interminable set options is Thomas, of course. If in two weeks he’s below the Mendoza line and the power’s not there, the A’s would certainly have to consider letting him go—painful as that might be. I’d rather DH Cust most of the time and let these young outfielders have a chance to prove themselves than bottle them up with Frank hitting .185.

by madmongoose on May 5, 2008 10:44 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Buck is going to need to show he can bring it in Sac.

I would keep Davis over Denorfia (both speed guys but Davis is a better fielder and can get you SBs.) and send down Braden. Wait a while on Buck, he needs to prove he is healthy enough to give the A’s consistent PT and he needs to find his swing. Down the road, Brown might be the one ass out, R. Sweeney has been pretty clutch and although he has no power at all, he looks like a ball player. All of this will work itself out because in a few weeks we will have a better idea on whether this fast start is a fluke and the A’s need to go with a major youth movement this season or if they can hang and need guys around like M. Sweeney and E. Brown to solidify the line-up/bench. I really can’t wait to see Chavez in the mix with the rest of these bats instead of the horrible Murphy/Hanahan combo.

Hot dogs, get your hot dogs.

by jjham15 on May 5, 2008 10:51 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Why not send Buck on a rehab assignment

That will put off the roster move that needs to be made with him. In the meantime, who knows who might get hurt, really struggled, etc.

That way you don’t burn an option on a guy like Sweeney when Buck might not be quite ready yet.

And, for what it’s worth, a rehab assignment doesn’t burn an option either so Buck won’t lose one (even though he still has all of his and it’s not a big issue).

http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/

by thejd44 on May 5, 2008 11:25 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree, same goes for Hardin.

Make these guys earn their roster spot by staying healthy for more than a week or two.

Hot dogs, get your hot dogs.

by jjham15 on May 5, 2008 11:30 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

He's already on one...

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on May 5, 2008 11:37 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I know...

my point was to leave him there until he feels another twinge and has to shut it down for another two months. No reason to mess with the rotation yet, let Smith or Eveland falter or Duke get injured again and then make a move. When you see the SacBee print Harden throws his 4th consecutive 9 inning no-no, then its time to give him his spot back.

Hot dogs, get your hot dogs.

by jjham15 on May 5, 2008 11:50 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

if

harden pitches one game and breaks or two, or three, its useless to have him do that in Sacto.

by Future Ed on May 5, 2008 11:53 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree but...

if bringing up Harden is going to cost someone else a job, why not make sure he wants to pitch more than a start or two before going back on vacation. I love watching Harden pitch and I have stuck with him longer than most but this whole nancy girl act has gotten old.

Hot dogs, get your hot dogs.

by jjham15 on May 5, 2008 12:27 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I dare you to call him a nancy girl to his face ...

but, regardless, two or three starts from Harden is practically two or three guaranteed wins … which is a pretty damn valuable thing.

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on May 5, 2008 12:33 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I should add that

Duke is my first choice to leave the rotation. Again, it’s about who is a part of the future. Eveland and Smith are. Duke isn’t. And he has already been hurt, too. I think it’s only a matter of time until he goes down again. Why not put him in the bullpen where the impact of that will be cushioned significantly?

Plus, I think Eveland and Smith are going to be better in the long run anyway.

http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/

by thejd44 on May 5, 2008 10:51 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Why?

Because he’s a major trade chip, is why. He’s worth more—a LOT more—as a guy who can be marketed as either a starter or a reliever than as a pure reliever.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on May 5, 2008 11:00 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree

But I think teams are aware he can do it. Sure, it’s only been 3 starts, but he’s been pretty good.

I wouldn’t be saying this if the A’s were 6 games under .500 and it was clear they couldn’t contend this year. I still think they can (which means you’re probably not dumping Duke…hehheh, dumping duke). I think he helps the team more in the bullpen.

Maybe I’m just getting too excited to see the future starting games. It’s possible. But going forward, I’d just much rather see Eveland and Smith starting.

http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/

by thejd44 on May 5, 2008 11:23 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

There is no way in hell he helps the team more in the bullpen

The bullpen is already by the far the biggest strength of the team.

Let’s compare Duke to Eveland, Smith, and Gaudin:
Duke has a better career track record than all three.
Duke has a better projection as a starter according to all systems than those three.
Duke has pitched better so far this year than Eveland and Gaudin, and about the same as Smith (and better than Blanton).

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on May 5, 2008 11:28 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

+1

im hesitant to agree with everybody saying Duke should be the odd man out.
everything ive gathered from Beane/the a’s is that they have very high hopes for him as a starter. and this would be useful either in flipping him in a trade, or if they decide to keep him around longer (the former option seems slightly more likely, although it would be interesting to see what price he could set in free agency).

by oakinboston on May 5, 2008 1:14 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Eveland, Smith, and Gaudin are getting into the 6th inning on a regular basis.

Duke’s 3 starts have consisted of 5 innings and an injury, 5 innings, and 5 innings.

I just have to wonder if having a really good five inning pitcher is better than having a slightly above average 6 or 7 inning pitcher.

by mikev on May 5, 2008 1:26 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

First of all

The answer to your last question is unequivocally “yes.”

Second of all…
His first start, he came out because of injury, the second start he was pitching well, but on a pitch count. So… we’re talking about 1 start, really… 1 start! He’s averaged fewer pitches per PA than the others so far. There is no reason on earth to think that any of Eveland, Smith, or Gaudin will go deeper into games. Sure, he might get injured again, but it’s not clear what that has to do with starting vs. bullpen.

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on May 5, 2008 1:35 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

to be fair

saying his 3rd start was a good start is like saying Wins are a valuable statistic in evaluating pitchers. But he’s still basically “fresh out of spring training” so I’m cutting him some slack and leaving him in the rotation of course.

Jeremy was safe. He jumped over the tag.

by mrrickyg on May 5, 2008 2:06 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I didn't say his third start was good...

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on May 5, 2008 2:09 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

you sort of implied it by saying he has pitched better than Gaudin and Eveland

If you charge him like 5ER like he deserved in that game, he’s pitched worse.

Jeremy was safe. He jumped over the tag.

by mrrickyg on May 5, 2008 2:16 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Eh

He gave up 6 hits, 1 HR in 5 innings.

Normally that’s like 3 ER. It just happened that all the hits were in consecutive at-bats.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on May 5, 2008 2:18 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

$&#$&(#

i’ll never try to defend gaudin or eveland again lol.

Jeremy was safe. He jumped over the tag.

by mrrickyg on May 5, 2008 2:21 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not too interested in the runs, either way

Much better K% and BB% than any of the three. Best xFIP. Bad LOB%=unlucky distribution of hits, which will turn around.

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on May 5, 2008 2:22 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

yeah

he’s the best of the 3. i really like gaudin, tho too. maybe if i had watched on saturday, i wouldn’t be as big a fan ;-)

Jeremy was safe. He jumped over the tag.

by mrrickyg on May 5, 2008 2:24 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Um, there's plenty of reason to think Eveland, Smith, or Gaudin will go deeper into games.

Since so far they have done exactly that.

Look, I’m not knocking Duke whatsoever. I love the guy. However, I don’t really think that anybody in the rotation has pitched themselves OUT of a spot, but I very much doubt that Duchscherer’s arm has 150+ innings per season in it.

by mikev on May 5, 2008 2:44 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

i don't know man

duke being in the pen was never a durability thing, it was just a need and success thing. give the guy the chance that he’s earned.

Jeremy was safe. He jumped over the tag.

by mrrickyg on May 5, 2008 4:13 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sure he can start or relieve but....

he’s coming off a stint on the DL following an entire season on the DL. Maybe he can get you a 130 innings as a starter but lets be real. Duke is a great set-up man/long reliever, not a starter and other teams know that.

Hot dogs, get your hot dogs.

by jjham15 on May 5, 2008 11:28 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

His recent issue

and the problem that had him on the shelf last year were totally unrelated.

I suppose he could have Fragile Personality Syndrome or something…

As long as you’re going down that route, why not just stick Harden in the pen? At least that way it might hide his busted shoulder long enough for some idiot to trade for him.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on May 5, 2008 11:42 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'd have to imagine that Buck will be very thoroughly rehabbed before getting the call-up ...

He simply has not been hitting this year, so there’s no reason at all for the A’s to call him up until he gets going. He has his full slate of options available, so there’s little harm in using one, if necessary, to keep him down longer than the 15 days of rehab time allowed. When he comes back, assuming everyone is still healthy and playing more or less like they’ve played to this point, I’d definitely send Sweeney down.

I’d send Braden down to make room for the first pitcher and Smith down to make room for the second. We have an embarrassment of riches in the rotation, as long as Harden is healthy, so we’re not really losing anything by sending Smith down. It might even be better for us and him, in the long run, to limit his MLB innings a bit this year, helping to keep him fresh and healthy. (AAA is a more controlled, less stressful environment in which to pitch)

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on May 5, 2008 11:41 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

more like

an embarrassment of moderately well-off.

by Future Ed on May 5, 2008 11:54 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

The six guys have a combined ERA of 3.25 ...

though, you’re right, they also have a combined salary of only $12m ….

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on May 5, 2008 12:29 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I *hope* he'll be thoroughly rehabbed before getting the callup

However, based on previous years, if Beane and Forst think that Buck at 51% capacity and 49% health is superior to Sweeney/Denorfia/Brown, he’ll be called up before he’s fully healed.

(FWIW, just eyeballing it, I’d guess that for most of April Buck was at 20% capacity and 25% health. Which is to say, he sucked so bad due to his health status that he forced Beane’s hand. If he’d lucked into a couple HRs and had gotten 5 more walks, I don’t think he’d have been DL’ed.)

And what did we do once we discovered a rift in the fourth dimension? We launched a monkey into it. @('.')@

by monkeyball on May 5, 2008 11:56 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I must say I am enjoying having to discuss...

who we need to send down vs. last year who was left to call up and fill in.

Thx Billy for giving us this “tough” dilemma.

by HRH on May 5, 2008 12:16 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Just a thought...

Who would be the back-up 1B if we let M. Sweeney go? I know Barton showed some durability by playing in the first 25 or so games, but he’s probably going to need a couple more days off as the season wears on. Would they be as few and far between as to make it ok for Frank to be the official back-up? Or is there someone else already on the 25-man whom I’m not aware of that is serviceable at first?

Personally I’d like to see Mike stay on the team. He’s been hitting well and it seemed like he was just finding his power stroke as his playing time was diminished. Add in the insurance against Frank being done, his place in the all-righty lineup, and potential trade-bait and it seems like a good idea to keep him around.

by WhiteElephants on May 5, 2008 12:25 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

It's first base...

there’s always someone around.

I’m sure Hannahan, Ellis or Murphy could cover.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on May 5, 2008 12:29 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

But

don’t pull that guy for a defensive replacement, or he’ll whine like Kotsay.

by Future Ed on May 5, 2008 12:42 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think that's when Kotsay jumped the shark

And what did we do once we discovered a rift in the fourth dimension? We launched a monkey into it. @('.')@

by monkeyball on May 5, 2008 12:50 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Harden's sister must have thought she was in Soviet Russia

when the Shark jumped her.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on May 5, 2008 12:53 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Or maybe a really rough section of Victoria

President and CEO of the Ryan Sweeney Apologists Consortium

by Joey C. on May 5, 2008 12:54 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

oooh, nice

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on May 5, 2008 12:55 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

The likely moves are the safe moves

Harden comes back -> Smith sent down
Foulke comes back -> Braden sent down
Buck comes back—> Davis is DFA’d

Those also seem to me to be the most sensible moves. Smith is pitching well right now, but I don’t see any big rush to make him a cornerstone of the rotation. The other guys have been pitching well, too, and offer a lot more in terms of trade bait with continued success. Braden has been well short of overwhelming, and his option for this year has already been used anyway. See ya later, thanks for the changeups. Davis doesn’t seem to stand out in any respect other than speed. Luis Castillo with no bat. Sweet.

President and CEO of the Ryan Sweeney Apologists Consortium

by Joey C. on May 5, 2008 12:53 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

His defense stands out

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on May 5, 2008 12:56 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Seems to be a matter of opinion...

He obviously has great closing speed, but his jumps seem to be somewhat erratic.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on May 5, 2008 12:59 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes

Plus, if you need a defensive sub in CF, move DeNorfia there.

President and CEO of the Ryan Sweeney Apologists Consortium

by Joey C. on May 5, 2008 1:06 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Could be...

Stats didn’t like him a whole lot last year. I was very impressed the one game I went to, and it’s hard to tell on tv…..

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on May 5, 2008 1:12 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

yeah.

Who do I think is a better overall player, Denorfia or Davis? I don’t even think its close really, Denorfia.

But Davis might still be a more valuable player for the time because of the niche he fills on the roster. I miss Jorge Velandia.

Jeremy was safe. He jumped over the tag.

by mrrickyg on May 5, 2008 2:08 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

That sort of depends on the defense

Certainly Denorfia is a much better hitter. He doesn’t look very good to me in CF, though, and scouts didn’t think too much of him as a CFer coming into the year, and he fits in better a bench player. If it comes to cutting one of them, I would keep Denorfia.

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on May 5, 2008 2:13 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

if it comes to "cutting" i'd keep denorfia too

i sort of assumed we could send denorfia to AAA tho.

but whatever, i’d lose sleep over giving up on denorfia…i wouldn’t lose any sleep if they had to get rid of davis. just a chemistry question (and by chemistry i mean mixing and matching of skills, not egos).

Jeremy was safe. He jumped over the tag.

by mrrickyg on May 5, 2008 2:18 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

agree with you on davis...

it seemed to me that the biggest reason, it seemed to me, that we acquired him was to be a late innings pinch-runner, and a plus defensive substitute. am i off in this assessment?

that type of player is something that a contender would want to add late in the season, but the A’s, right now, obviously have more important things the need to consider (development of youngsters, not wasting options needlessly, keeping around people they want in their long term plans)

by oakinboston on May 5, 2008 1:10 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

A luxury

Having a designated pinch runner on an Athletics roster just feels somehow wrong, almost shameful. Beane’s teams have been made up of largely flawed players that can contribute just enough but in a variety of ways so that they are viable options. Bobby Kielty is to me the prototypical A’s bench player—often used as a pinch runner or defensive sub, but provided solid value as a lefty killer. One-dimensional players like Davis (in my opinion, anyway) taking up a roster spot just seems too opulent for the A’s.

President and CEO of the Ryan Sweeney Apologists Consortium

by Joey C. on May 5, 2008 1:34 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Designated Pinch Runner seems right

Because of the “Moneyball” “OBP” “Base-clogging” lineup, it means you have to burn a roster spot on a speedster to make up for those shortcomings. The other way to look at it is, you don’t need Denorfia’s bat because you have plenty of really slow guys getting lots of hits, but you do need Davis’s speed to run for them late in the games, or to play defense for Cust (who actually doesn’t look that slow on the basepaths to me, but maybe he is) and/or Brown.

Jeremy was safe. He jumped over the tag.

by mrrickyg on May 5, 2008 2:10 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Denorfia is a good baserunner too

albeit not as good as Davis… and they’re at least comparable as outfielders.

If I was a playoff team, I’d not mind having both of them as reserves, however.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on May 5, 2008 2:17 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Why is Embree assumed to be safe?

If there is ever a really huge roster crunch, I am at least open to the idea of releasing Embree, and making Eveland the LH setup guy. Watching Embree pitch is pretty scary, his G/F ratio has gotten very low, and I really swear these flyouts are going to start leaving yard. At this point, Embree is almost a LOOGY anyways, Eveland in the pen can get tough lefties and not leave me covering my eyes vs righties.

To me the question is, if Eveland is going to be squeezed out of the rotation, do you want him starting in Triple A or relieving in the majors? If you want him to be relieving in the majors, then Embree might have to lose his job. I would feel bad, he’s a nice guy who loves crossword puzzles.

I’m going to cling steadfast to my insistence that until Duke pitches his way out of the rotation or injures his way out of the rotation, he has earned the right to get an extended look at starting.

SO:
Foulke’s return sends Braden down.
Harden’s return squeezes Eveland from rotation (Roster spot either Eveland to AAA or Embree out to pasture)
Buck’s return sends Sweeney down
I’d prefer to dump Brown when Cargon is ready, but probably have to demote Denorfia for political reasons.

Jeremy was safe. He jumped over the tag.

by mrrickyg on May 5, 2008 1:56 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Releasing Embree is clearly a step too far

but the team should definitely be looking to deal him. The left-handed bullpen depth is pretty impressive anyway. Meyer seems destined for that role at some point, Braden’s already there, and Blevins is also available. DiNardo is more “a pitcher who happens to throw left-handed,” but by the insanely generous standards of LOOGYs, he actually has a fringe-average fastball.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on May 5, 2008 2:12 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

sure

when i say “release” what i really mean is “explore all possible trade options, and when/if nothing is out there, release”

Jeremy was safe. He jumped over the tag.

by mrrickyg on May 5, 2008 2:20 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think I got a massage from you last week

I want my money back.

And what did we do once we discovered a rift in the fourth dimension? We launched a monkey into it. @('.')@

by monkeyball on May 5, 2008 2:41 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Doesn't it seem premature to put Eveland in the 'pen?

Giving up on Eveland as a starter after he has pitched fairly well just seems a little drastic. Smith is Johnny-come-lately; he has options left (right?) and he’s young enough that what he needs is regular work rather than a permanent roster spot. Send him down for the 2 weeks it takes for Harden’s shoulder, lat, and coccyx to simultaneously explode.

President and CEO of the Ryan Sweeney Apologists Consortium

by Joey C. on May 5, 2008 2:57 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

eveland and smith are the same age

tho smith has more option years left. the thing is, smith has just earned it more, and other guys have seniority and equal or better performance

Jeremy was safe. He jumped over the tag.

by mrrickyg on May 5, 2008 4:16 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I've flip-flopped on my opinion of a 6-man rotation

Blanton pitches every 5 days. Duchscherer, Gaudin, Eveland, and Smith all rotate around him. In essence, they would get an extra day of rest between every start. This would hold the starts down for the pitchers who are injury prone and/or young and inexperienced.

On a normal pitching staff, this wouldn’t be an option because the thought of a #6 starter getting as many starts as the #2,3 starter is terrifying (see 2007 A’s!). But, since the back end of the A’s rotation has performed as well as the front end has, it could actually work for the A’s this year.

"To me, boxing is like a ballet, except there's no music, no choreography, and the dancers hit each other." - Jack Handey

by JJ on May 5, 2008 2:48 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Trade a couple OF for nick swisher lol

I miss swisher…

He was the only reason my mom watched games.

"It's like déjà vu all over again." -yogi berra

by Cheezombie on May 5, 2008 2:56 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Speaking of roster spots...

This is Ellis’s last year, yeah? He’d be likely to command some serious dough on the open market. Are the A’s going to be able to re-sign him? I’d hope so, but if not, where the trade at…

President and CEO of the Ryan Sweeney Apologists Consortium

by Joey C. on May 5, 2008 3:03 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

No, that makes sense

I was actually just trying to get someone to give an educated guess on what kind of money he’ll be offered so I wouldn’t have to do any research.

That’s one of a few players north of 30 that I’d like to see locked up for the long term.

President and CEO of the Ryan Sweeney Apologists Consortium

by Joey C. on May 5, 2008 7:21 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Using the Polanco contract as a baseline

I’d be surprised if he gets more than about $30 million. He’s a better defender than Polanco, but his reputation is less (hence no GG last season, or for that matter in 2006) and that’s what counts.

I also would like the A’s to retain him. One black hole in the middle infield is fine for me, thanks.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on May 5, 2008 10:23 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

not that i wanna dump ellis

but ellis and crosby have pretty similar career offensive numbers, so if one black hole is enough, are you saying get rid of ellis or keep him?

Jeremy was safe. He jumped over the tag.

by mrrickyg on May 5, 2008 10:42 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

scratch that

i thought i saw a comparison of .732 OPS and .748 OPS. oops.

Jeremy was safe. He jumped over the tag.

by mrrickyg on May 5, 2008 10:43 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Crosby's career OPS is like .704

He’s also a substantially worse defender, even when you adjust for the greater difficulty of SS over 2B.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on May 5, 2008 11:26 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

i looked it up of course

saw .730ish figure, but somehow, even though I was looking for career, managed to latch on to his season OPS. i still just think crosby is a little underrated and ellis is a little overrated by A’s fan, but not by much. a lot of crosby’s numbers have been depressed by injury/playing through pain, i don’t know if there is a huge difference between healthy crosby and healthy ellis. but of course, injuries must be evaluated in the equation

Jeremy was safe. He jumped over the tag.

by mrrickyg on May 6, 2008 8:07 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm trying to write my first blog post on this

But though this doesn’t necessarily help with the roster crunch, I would sign Barry Bonds. If we’re making moves that assume competition for the playoffs this year (which seems to be the case) signing Barry is the best move. I would run the roster like this

C Suzuki
1B Barton
2B Ellis
SS Crosby
3B Hannahan
LF Bonds
CF Denorfia
RF Cust
DH Thomas

C Bowen
IF Murphy
IF Sweeney
OF Davis
OF Buck

SP Blanton
SP Gaudin
SP Eveland
SP Smith
SP Harden

SW Duchscherer
RP Casilla
RP Embree
RP Brown
RP Street
RP Devine

So I guess that would send out Braden, R Sweeney, Brown, and Foulke. None of the 4 are all that useful this year imo, so send them down if possible if not DFA.

I would keep Davis and Buck because with that OF group we will need defensive replacements a lot + I want guys who are at least serviceable in CF (solid in Davis’s case, I think serviceable in Buck’s) as there will be a lot of ground to cover with Bonds in left and Cust in right.

As for the rotation situation I prefer duke in a relief role as I’m not sure of his sustainability as a starter, plus I expect Harden to be hurt quickly and he can slide back in as a starter.

As for the relievers I suppose you can swap Foulke and Devine if you’re really enamored with Foulke but its more of a feel good story to me then usefulness this year.

by iamawesomer on May 5, 2008 4:06 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

If you're expecting Harden to get hurt ...

wouldn’t it make sense to leave Duke in the rotation, send Smith down to Sac for a start or two and then call him back up in a couple of weeks, keeping everyone in their normal routines?

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on May 5, 2008 4:45 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

In the interest of full disclosure

I have Smith on my fantasy team and want to see him make as many major league starts as possible.

by iamawesomer on May 5, 2008 4:52 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Fair enough ...

can’t argue with that

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on May 5, 2008 5:11 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Frightening

I can hardly conceive of a weaker defensive line-up, save the middle infield. Positively terrifying. Can anyone come up with a line-up that has actually been employed that was this bad?

On the other hand, we’d likely lead the league in walks….

by DiegoSegui on May 5, 2008 11:16 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

See: Pittsburgh Pirates, 1993-present

President and CEO of the Ryan Sweeney Apologists Consortium

by Joey C. on May 5, 2008 11:38 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

it's not nearly as bad as it seems

I’m pretty sure some of the mid-90s-late90s A’s had far worse defensive lineups. The A’s have had a great defense for years now, a lot of this is just perception and being spoiled by league leading defenses most of the decade

Jeremy was safe. He jumped over the tag.

by mrrickyg on May 6, 2008 8:10 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Plan further into the future

Any plan that does not spell out the contingency when (not if) Harden goes down is not a complete plan.

I just don’t see us losing one of our hitters. Our offense will not be nearly as “non-sucky” if we didn’t have this many options.

I’m OK with sending Smith down at this point, even with the 10K game. First, I don’t think he’ll continue to be that good, if he pitches a no-hitter in AAA after he goes back, you can all sue me. Second, I don’t think he’ll have to stay at AAA that long. If he does, that means the whole starting staff stayed healthy, and pitched well, and we wouldn’t be worried about Smith staying in AAA for a little while longer.

My list is Braden, Smith goes down for Harden and Gaudin. If Buck hits, then send Sweeny down for Buck. Smith is the one back once Harden gets injured.

by asfansince1989 on May 5, 2008 4:49 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

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