A Minor League Make-over in May?
"Now I am become Death, the destroyer of worlds." Robert Oppenheimer, Trinity test, 1945.
I prefer Oppenhiemer's variation to the direct translation for a couple reasons. For one thing, I prefer the rhythm that comes with the extra foot when including "become". More importantly, I like the sense of deliberate action that comes with becoming death. It implies a conscious choice to reek havoc and lay watse.
Which is what I'm about to do with this minor league report.

I come bearing bad news, friends. Carlos Gonzalez tweaked his hamstring, went on the DL, got healthy, came back, played a couple games, sprained his ankle and went back on the DL. Fautino De Los Santos got roughed up a couple times and ended up on the DL with a sore pitching elbow. Gio Gonzalez has been roughed up his last two starts although he's supposed to be healthy. Three of the brightest prospects the A's acquired this offseason are trying to become honorary members of the 2007 Oakland Athletics baseball club.
Sure, injuries happen but my vexitude goes beyond a few gimps in the bush leagues. What, "vexitude" isn't a real word? It should be. Other then CarGon and Aaron Cunningham (who just came off the DL a few days ago and is currently in AA Midland) the A's don't have a legitimate positional prospect in the upper minors. Let me explain how I came to that conclusion. In my mind, a legit prospect is someone everyone wants and everybody knows that acquiring said prospect will require paying a steep price. CarGon and Cunningham are prime examples of this philosophy, it cost the A's Dan Haren to acquire them.
Look at the AAA and AA rosters, you can't find the positional talent to even begin discussing a similiar deal. As of May 4th, the 2 most productive (and healthy) bats in Sacramento's line-up are Kevin Melillo (906 OPS) and Landon Powell (908 OPS). Both have managed fewer than 70 PA cue to slow starts while recovering from 2007 injuries. Fact of the matter is these two are going to need virtually all of the 2008 season to re-establish themselves as potential big league players. More damning is that even if these 2 manage to maintain their current level of offensive production they are on the wrong side of the age curve. Both players are 25 but Melillo turns 26 in a week and a few days while Powell will be the same age before he plays a game in 2009.
Don't get me wrong, these aren't guys you boot out of your organization for snits and giggles but at the same time they won't be drawing a lot of interest from rival teams if you put anything other than a .99 tag on them. Melillo only has a future in Oakland if the A's decide to move/let Mark Ellis go after the 2008 season. If Ellis stays, Melillo is destined to rot in AAA unless he gets traded elsewhere. Hey, even scrap medal can get traded but only if you're willing to accept a low return. That's not something you need to consider when you're talking about a legit prospect.
Place yourself in a non-Oakland GM's shoes. Billy is trying to deal a 26 year old rookie (either Powell or Melillo, take your pick) with good but not great numbers in AAA, maybe a cup o' coffee in the Show and an injury history that stretches over a few years. Are you going to want to build a major deal around one of these guys?
I doubt it.
Look at the rest of the River Cats' line-up. Putnam and Baisley are in the exact same situation as Melillo and Powell only they're held in even less regard in the scouting community. Conrad, Rogowski, Blasi and Gaetti are all roster fodder. Fiorentino is hurt, who knows what we've got there. Bankston and Petit are young enough to draw interest but Bankston hasn't hit much ( not good for a 1B prospect) while Petit is profiling more and more as a back-up middle infielder. Scouts say he's the best defensive infielder the A's have in the minors but he's committed 9 errors in 29 games, that's enough to make a person go "huh". He's shown some doubles power (11 through May 4th) but he doesn't hit home runs, he doesn't steal bases and he doesn't draw walks. He's hitting .305 but for a contact hitter he strikes out a bit much with 26 K in 118 AB.
I can see Powell and Petit contributing in Oakland next year but most likely it will be as back-ups. Melillo will get a shot at 2B if Ellis leaves but only because he's already standing in line. Where are the guys who stand to make an impact in Oakland? Sure doesn't look like there's anyone other then Cunningham when you look at Midland.
The most productive hitter in Midland's line-up is still 23 year old Jesus Guzman, a minor league FA pick-up this last pffseason who's hitting382/423/588. I still advise caution when looking at the guy, he spent 2 of the last 3 years NOT hitting like this for the Mariners organization. You'd think I'd be happy with Cliff Pennington, who's hitting .280 with a .400 OBP, 25 BB to 19 K and a perfect 11 for 11 on SB attempts... but I'm not. He has a .320 slugging thanks to 3 doubles and a triple among his 35 hits. When a soon to be 24 year old minor leaguer starts making Juan Pierre look like a power threat I get suspicious. I'm not asking for 20 HR pop but c'mon already! A couple more line drives into the gap are good for the soul. Justin Sellers is still a young'un but he's hitting even less then Pennington. The rest of the Midland line-up is composed of guys who are too old and not putting up enough production to merit discussion.
Oh, and in case anyone is wondering, Javier Herrera is still on the DL.
Now, it hasn't been all doom-&-gloom. Sac's got a solid bullpen centered around Brad Ziegler and Jerry Blevins. SP Andrew Bailey showed some improvment his last time out for Midland while Vincent Mazzaro struck out 11 and walked only 1 in 6.2 IP in his last start for the RockHounds. James Simmons has finally worked his way up to the 100 pitch count yet has held opponents to 24 hits and 4 walks while striking out 28 in 31 IP. If Simmons keeps pitching like this he'll be part of the make-over I mentioned in the title.
See, Stockton's roster brings a smile to my face. The rotation is headlined by Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson, but keep an eye on fellow SP Jason Fernandez. Mexican League sensation Arnold Leon has pitched very well thus far but is headed back to Mexico at the end of the month to fulfill his contractual obligations south of the border. Jared Lansford has been moved to the bullpen (supposedly a permenant move) and I have a hunch he'll be closing once he gets used to working out of the pen.
As much as I like the arms, Stockton has some bats that actually show promise. Chris Carter is officially over his early season slump and has now hit 10 HR. Sean Doolittle continues to rake with a 345/411/637 line. Josh Horton's heating up while Matt Sulentic continues to put his rough 2007 season behind him to the tune of 322/412/506.
Kane County's line-up features Corey Brown and a cast of faceless extras although Shane Keough might make me change the title in a few weeks. The stength of the Cougars' roster is the pitching staff, with Scott Moore in the bullpen putting up numbers that makes one wonder if perhaps Mr. Moore is an ex-boyfriend of Billy Beane's daughter. The guy deserves a promotion but keeps getting passed over. Travis Banwart, Scott Mitchinson and Craig Italiano anchor the rotation. Italiano has 41 K's in 29 IP but after pithcing just 35 innings over the last 2 seasons I suspect the 21 year old Texan is going to spend most of the year in Kane County's big ballpark.
But Italiano and the lil' Miss. Beane-biting Moore are the only two high performers who shouldn't be filling out change of address forms soon. Sac's rotation features Gio, a couple re-treads in Saarloos and DiNardo, a slowly fading away Dan Meyer and minor league journeyman Danny Borrell. Brad Knox, for those who are interested, has been moved to the bullpen. None of those guys are going to keep James Simmons in Midland once he's ready for the next challenge. Simmons' promotion would trigger the AA call-up of either Cahill or Anderson, take your pick. (Don't stress over the decision, the guy you don't pick will be Texas bound soon enough.) Whichever Stockton SP gets tapped will be replaced by someone from Kane County, my guess is Scott Mitchinson... mainly because he's almost 2 years older then the other canidates and needs to be pushed to see what he can do.
Offensively, Midland 1st baseman Tommy Everidge doesn't have the numbers or the mojo to dissuade the A's from calling up one of Stockton's clobbering 1B, my guess is it's Doolittle but that's mainly because of his superiour defense. Kane County's Brown continues to rake or strike out with little in between. I can see the A's bumping him to the Cal League once they open up a roster spot by promoting Doolittle to Texas. Carter would move to 1B full time while Brown, Mitchell and Sulentic would form a potentially loaded outfield.
It's time to start cutting the dead weight in the minor league system and promoting those who actually have a future in the organization. The trade market is going to start heating up and there will be teams calling about Blanton, Street and maybe even Gaudin. It would behoove Beane to know as much as he can about his own farm system before he goes shopping.
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Excellent write-up
if for no other reason, just for the information itself, as it is difficult to keep up with all four minor league teams. That said, I do agree with most of what you said.
I check the box scores of all the minor league teams each day, and have noticed myself that there really aren’t many hitters worth watching. Basically, now that Gonzalez is injured, it’s the two 1B/DH at A+ and Corey Brown.
But talk about pitching; Oakland has a ton of quality arms. The major league roster is very deep in pitching, and that’s even with Harden on the DL, who will have to bump someone (Braden?) down to the minors, as well as the problems with FDLS and Gio so far. If those two get back to where they were expected to be, the minor league pitching is pretty scary. Anderson and Cahill give Oakland two top-notch starters, and if one or both of the Swisher-prospects work out, there’s literally close to 10 guys who could vie for a spot in next year’s rotation.
I think it may be time for a pitching-for-hitting trade, similar to what the Twins did with the Rays with the Garza for Young swap. Gio and FDLS may not have much value now, so perhaps it’s not a good time to trade either, but of the other two, it’s certainly foreseeable that either Cahill and/or Anderson could bring a very good hitter in return. And Oakland desperately needs bats, as the major league roster is essentially 3 DH’s and a bunch of singles hitters, and the minors is nothing but two injured guys (Gonzalez, Cunningham) ,two more 1B/DH types (Doolittle, Carter), and someone is low-A. It’s time to go shopping for hitters.
by rageon on
May 5, 2008 11:48 PM PDT
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I'm going to have to disagree with this approach
because hitters are much more reliable acquisitions as free agents. I think teams should be willing to do almost anything to avoid having to buy free agent pitchers.
If I’m making a serious run at 2009, I’d much rather keep the minor league rosters as is and buy Pat Burrell/Adam Dunn and Rafael Furcal to fill the needs for “a bat” and “a shortstop that can actually hit.” That would give a lineup of something like
Furcal
Barton
Buck
Burrell
Cust
Chavez
Gonzalez
Ellis
Suzuki
which is pretty damn good if you ask me. Expensive, but I think it’s manageable with the cost savings from this season and MLB’s increasing global revenues.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
May 6, 2008 12:19 AM PDT
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fine with me
I don’t disagree with that approach at all. The question is whether the A’s actually would spent $10M+ on a bigtime bat. It was clear the Twins would not (afterall, they had a closer to sign), so in their case, I think it made sense.
If the A’s are willing to go with the approach of developing their own pitching, hoping to find some average players in the minors and via waivers, and signing a bigtime FA slugger, I’d be OK with it. It’s just that I can’t imagine the A’s signing a great hitter. Emil Brown, MIke Sweeney – yes. Adam Dunn – not so sure.
by rageon on
May 6, 2008 6:42 AM PDT
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Well they did spend on Piazza, so it's not impossible.
I do think a prospect trade of starter for middle IF would be good idea.
by WaddellCanseco on
May 6, 2008 7:23 AM PDT
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They spent a quarter of their payroll on Jermaine Dye
Granted, that contract was a disaster… but mostly because of some freak injuries.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
May 6, 2008 8:06 AM PDT
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Well, they did sign him AFTER the leg break :-)
But still, I thought the contract was worth the risk at the time, it just didn’t work out.
Jeremy was safe. He jumped over the tag.
by mrrickyg on
May 6, 2008 9:20 AM PDT
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No, the question is whether they would spend $15+ million
Furcal and Dunn make $13m and Burrell makes $14m … none of them have done anything to deserve a pay cut ….
Of course, the team could afford it … if the team were to spend $30m on two of those guys and shed one out of Blanton, Street or Harden (either trough trade or declining Harden’s option, who would then be under arbi control), that would leave payroll at ~$75m (obviously with a big margin for error from arbi estimates)—pretty much in line with 2007 spending.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on
May 7, 2008 10:02 AM PDT
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Man would I love to have that lineup next year.
When will then be now? Soon.
by Syphon on
May 6, 2008 1:55 PM PDT
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I'll bet Beane reads this write-up
He’s gotta be busy with the ‘Quakes in soccer season (they need the futbol equivalent of Frank Thomas @ striker) and Forst is handling the big-league club… not to mentioned Tottenham is UEFA-cup bound, so I’m thinkin good ‘ol BB doesn’t have time to be taking the 3:10 to Midland.
The Stockton Ports pitching staff is better than the Orioles.
by gdub171 on
May 6, 2008 8:47 AM PDT
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I think you may be being overly harsh here
Generally speaking most AAA rosters are not packed to the gills with top prospects. Let’s take a look at Tampa Bay’s (generally regarded as the league’s deepest farm system).
Generally speaking guys 26 or older are not top prospects, so we can rule them out. Although I have been known to express some man-love for Justin Ruggiano before.
For outfielders the only one 25 or younger is Fernando Perez—he had a solid 2007 but is now 25 and not doing much in AAA.
The infield is better; 3 guys are under 25. Elliot Johnson is hitting his way into a demotion back to AA. (Speaking of Johnsons, hi DJ…) Joel Guzman has posted basically identical lines in 3 stints (2 AAA, one MLB) recently, which is a bad thing because those lines are high-600s OPS. Reed Brignac is a good prospect but hasn’t been dominating since 2006.
Catchers, Hector Jimenez appears to have been out of baseball for 2 seasons.
The pitching staff is pretty good. Nick DeBarr has put up good numbers as a reliever; Brian Henderson not so much. Chris Mason is quite young and had a great 2007, but has scuffled a bit in AAA. Calvin Medlock can’t hit the strike zone. Jeff Niemann’s gotten some hype and deservedly so; he’s had a couple of starts and undoubtedly will get a second shot in the near future. Jae Kuk Ryu could rebound but was terrible in the majors last season. Mitch Talbot looks like a 5th starter type.
Overall I don’t see any knockout prospects there, certainly no one on the level of Gonzalez. The top-of-the-rotation type pitching prospects are mostly further down.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
May 6, 2008 12:04 AM PDT
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I'm not being harsh
I think wanting more then 2 good positional prospects in the upper minors that are on the sunny side of 25 is a very modest desire. I’m only mildly irked that the A’s had to trade for both those talents.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on
May 6, 2008 7:12 AM PDT
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If you're excluding Petit and Guzman from your definition of "good"
then I’d argue that Tampa only has “two good positional prospects in the upper minors that are on the sunny side of 25.” And I’d guess that quite a number of teams have zero.
Hence, overly harsh.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
May 6, 2008 8:15 AM PDT
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Guzman is a flash until he proves otherwise
And like I said, Petit’s bat is profiling more and more like a back-up.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on
May 6, 2008 8:24 AM PDT
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Eh?
It’s profiling less and less like a backup. He’s been improving steadily since the beginning of last season. He is currently hitting over .300 in AAA, and if his splits this year are like his splits last year, he has a legitimate talent for line-drive hitting.
If anything, it’s his glove that’s more worrisome at this point as he’s booted some balls this year, but unless it’s an outbreak of Steve Blass disease, he should be fine.
Guzman dominated A+ at age 22 and is now dominating AA at age 23. That is exactly what good prospects are supposed to do. He has a good track record that was masked by overaggressive promotion at a very young age.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
May 6, 2008 8:59 AM PDT
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Guzman cannot sustain his numbers
His birthday is mid-June, which tempers (slightly) the enthusiasm of his production last year and what he’ll do this year. Guzman’s OBP is tied directly to his batting average, the guys doesn’t draw a lot of walks, and when his BA drops from .380 which is inevitable his OBP will come tumbling down.
Petit has average power, at best, for a middle infielder. He doesn’t draw a lot of walks. If he’s going to make his living as a contact hitter his K’s need to drop some. He’s not a starting caliber hitter unless he’s exceptional with the glove or he needs to improve in one of those three areas. The fielding woes raise an eyebrow, nothing more.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on
May 6, 2008 5:16 PM PDT
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Petit
His K rate has been pretty constant over his career at about 16%. His walk rate is a little under half that, at about 7%.
Minorleaguesplits lost his 2007 LD rate at some point, but it was very good—around 23% if I recall. His 2008 LD rate is about 18.5%.
His range of outcomes is anywhere from Mark Ellis (average bat, great glove) through Crosby (mediocre bat, good glove) to Alex Cora (lame bat, average glove). Right now his hitting numbers look a lot like Marco Scutaro’s, except in AAA instead of MLB and at a much, much younger age. If he can mirror Scutaro in the bigs hitting-wise and better him with the glove, he’ll be quite valuable.
Guzman: I guess if you just completely dismiss batting average in the minors, he doesn’t look that good. I’m not willing to do that. Even if you normalize his BABIP to “LD rate plus .120” his OPS is still almost exactly .900. And it’s reasonable to expect his BB rate to rise toward his career rate as his average declines somewhat.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
May 6, 2008 6:02 PM PDT
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As the standard barer for the Mark Ellis is underappreciated crowd
You know 1st hand how overlooked Ellis is by the majority of baseball. If that’s Petit’s high end upside then he’s not going to be desired by many other teams. Remember how I was defining a prospect: He’s someone that everyone wants. That does not describe Petit at this time. Let me put it another way. I’m glad he’s in Oakland’s system, I wouldn’t want Beane to trade Street for him.
As for Guzman, I don’t discount batting average entirely but I do describe as a fluke a .380 batting average.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on
May 6, 2008 6:22 PM PDT
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A note RE: Petit's errors
You know, he’s a guy who gets, full-stretch, out after balls he really has next to no chance of getting to – and he manages to put a glove on. That’s why he registers errors.
In 2004 in Vancouver, he had a .950 fielding percentage – and I saw every game, so I can confirm that maybe one of those 16 errors he got slapped with was a genuine booted ball. The rest were a case of ‘how the hell did he get near that?’
I’m not saying he might not have booted one or two this year, but he’s always been victimized by scorers who don’t get that an error shouldn’t register if the dude gets a touch on a ball that would be out of almost anyone else’s range.
In addition, he does have homerun power – the problem is, he’s traditionally thought he had far more than he does, and that’s why his K’s have always been high. The A’s have been working hard to get him to hit into gaps, rather than aim for fences, and he seems to be catching on.
Personally, I give it a year before BoCro is gone and Petit is in his place.
Notes From The Nat has a new home: http://www.natnotes.com
by Ozzz on
May 7, 2008 10:17 AM PDT
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Curious
His K rate hasn’t dropped in recent years (it has, as I noted, held pretty constant) but his batting average has gone up a lot. Maybe it’s just the lower launch angle of his swing creating more line drives and fewer fly balls.
If so, I wish Crosby would do this.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
May 7, 2008 8:34 PM PDT
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Thanks for the scout's eye on Petit's glove
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on
May 8, 2008 10:58 AM PDT
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"Almost exactly .900"
How ya figure?
Maintaining his IsoSlg and IsoOBP (so all of the hits lost are singles), and dropping his BABIP to .347 (based on his 22.7% ld%), his average drops to .300 even, leaving his OBP at .338 and Slg at .514 for an OPS of .852.
Anyone know anything about his defense?
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on
May 7, 2008 10:42 AM PDT
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He's a versatile defender but not an especially good one
Omar Infante, say. Chone Figgins. Or Scutaro, except that Scutaro is actually a rather good second baseman and Guzman isn’t.
I don’t see him being a long-term starter at a given position but rather a guy who can move around to fill holes on the diamond as needs arise.
Can’t figure out where the math discrepancy re his offense is from, but right now I’m too lazy to look it up.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
May 7, 2008 8:42 PM PDT
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"Unless he's exceptional with the glove"
that’s kind of the key. He’s never going to hit like an Alex Rodriguez or Miguel Tejada kind of SS. That goes without saying. But he has a good chance of being able to hit well enough to be a productive bat at the bottom of the lineup … something like .290/.340/.360. He’s not going to hit more than 10 HRs and 30 2b/3bs in a season - but he doesn’t need to because his prospect status is based on him having a plus glove. I doubt he all of a sudden forgot how to field or that everyone was just wrong about him. He’s glove is going to play - and if he can get those Ks under control (I agree, they’re a cause for concern, though minor, at this point), his bat should too.
As far as Guzman goes, clearly his BABIP is going to head south—but if his power stays where it is, that’s okay. His problem, though, is that his k-rate has increased this year from 16% last year and 18% in 2006 to 22% this year.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on
May 7, 2008 10:38 AM PDT
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I'm not really worried about Petit's glove
I’m not sure he can produce that .340 OBP you were talking about.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on
May 8, 2008 10:57 AM PDT
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Nice
Cahill i believe is the best of the big four (Henry+DLS+Anderson). He has what, 5 different pitches, all of which he can throw for precision accuracy? I remember when he was drafted we all figured he’d be our best pitcher sometime soon, and he’s shown that. Anderson is also a badass as well. DLS will be up too, I just think he’ll be the last one to make it. Poor guy has stuff that pitchers dream of, he just needs to learn how to use it.
And Henry… Dude is gonna eventually be a setup man, and maybe a closer one day. I just don’t see him being higher then 6th best starting pitcher for us anytime soon. With Simmons, Cahill, Anderson to be starting in two years, Simmons earlier than that. And along with Eveland, Smith, Gaudin and whatever prospects we get back for Harden and Blanton there’s going to be no room for him.
The hitting’s been quite pathetic for a while. I don’t even check AAA anymore unless CarGon is playing or Gio is pitching. AA has Simmons which is amazing to watch, and Guzman, but he won’t be anything more then Donny Murphy for us, without the cannon of an arm. It’s always an adventure to see our starters and relievers in A+. Carignan (sp) was turning heads and I believe he was promoted to AA. Word is all he has is a plus fastball, and the higher leagues are going to eat him up. I hope that doesn’t end up happening, but we have plenty of relievers on the way with Leon leading the bunch as you stated above.
Doolittle and Carter sure are fun to watch, it’s like there getting competitive who can get the most extra base hits. Carter looks like he’s got HR Derby batting potential. Corey Brown amazes me with his K’s. He honestly has to be the most unique hitter I’ve ever seen. His stats when you look deep into them are freaking weird.
And what can be said of Italiano. Another guy who I think is gonna warp to the show, not sure as a starter though. He’s a victim of his own success, he strikes so many people out he struggles to get passed the 5th inning, which is a no bueno for a starter.
"Mommy and Daddy are going to take a nap before the baseball game starts..."
by Devyn on
May 6, 2008 12:14 AM PDT
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What about?
H. Rod. He was throwing heat in Stockton and moved up to AA pretty quick. I would hate get rid of pitching. The staff is solid but the bats are not stepping up.
Defense now that is another story. Can somebody send me Bob Geren’s address so i could send him Coach Emanski’s instructional video tapes on defensive drills and defensive strategies. http://www.baseballworld.com/ . 4 errors one game vs Texas embarrassing
.
by bighappy on
May 6, 2008 12:21 AM PDT
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Rodriguez
He’s struggling in AA but he needed the challenge. He wasn’t going to learn to be a better pitcher in Stockton.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on
May 6, 2008 7:14 AM PDT
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In Stockton he could get away
with his dominating Fastball and average slider. Now hes gonna have to actually pitch and develope a 3rd pitch,
When will then be now? Soon.
by Syphon on
May 6, 2008 8:24 AM PDT
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OT: I did enjoy...
Kalki. But, that was many years ago. And, I’ve killed many brain cells since then, so I’m not sure exactly why this post brought back that memory.
Foolsh, the most insane regular poster on AN since oaktoon left - salb
by FoolshGame22 on
May 6, 2008 1:19 AM PDT
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Nice write-up, Grover.
You gotta think that Blanton will be moved sometime soon for at least one decent under-25 positional prospect that would immediately improve the AA and AAA squads. I’m thinking someone like Atlanta’s Brent Lillibridge. Not a blue-chipper and not really tearing up the International League so far this season, but he’d still be a nice piece to have at Triple-A with the A’s current dearth of middle infield talent.
by Taj Adib on
May 6, 2008 8:31 AM PDT
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I didn't want to start with the rumor-mongering
But Atlanta is going to move Smoltz to the bullpen when he comes back and they’re shopping for a quality SP. Smoltz will become the closer and he’s publically embraced the move.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on
May 6, 2008 8:38 AM PDT
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Atlanta's prospects scare me.
Especially any of them that they’d be willing to give up.
I’m looking at you, Dan Meyer, Jose Cruz, Charles Thomas, Andy Marte, and Horacio Ramirez.
No, Joey Devine doesn’t make up for it.
by mikev on
May 6, 2008 8:58 AM PDT
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Good time to buy low on Jordan Schafer...
assuming they don’t think he’ll keep roiding (or was it HGHing—that doesn’t have quite the same ring) and get suspended again.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
May 6, 2008 9:01 AM PDT
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Great write up
I had a few questions for anyone who might know. Is Doolittle’s power for real? Very few scouts thought Doolittle would develope plus power. Another guy that the A’s need to get back on the diamond is Desme. I read that he is in extended spring traing looking very good. Anyone know his estimated return date?
by asfaninpismobeach on
May 6, 2008 8:45 AM PDT
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Doolittle
The A’s reworked Doolittle’s swing in Instructional League last fall and they put him on a strength program that put on about 10 lbs of muscle. The Cal League is a notorious hitter’s league but Kevin Goldstein at BPro (admittedly, he’s been known to have a bit of a pro-A’s bias) is calling Doolittle’s power legit. Time will tell.
Desme is still experiencing some soreness in his wrist(?) and the plan, last I read, was to take it slow for now.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on
May 6, 2008 8:51 AM PDT
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I can tell you that last season...
...while waiting in line for a smokie on the concourse under Nat Bailey Stadium, I could tell by the sound of the bat that Doolittle had just knocked out a base hit.
His knocks just sounded harder than those of other hitters. Much harder.
It would make perfect sense to me that, with that in mind, a small change or two would see those same hits go long. Little more upswing, combined with a hitters ballpark or two, and those suckers would be gone.
Notes From The Nat has a new home: http://www.natnotes.com
by Ozzz on
May 7, 2008 10:23 AM PDT
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I wouldn't lump Powell with Melillo
If Powell can establish some durability (so I’m leading off with a mighty big IF here), he could vault straight to the premium rank of catching prospects. (Goldstein was about to do that last year when he tore up his knee.) He could be well above catching norms both offensively and defensively, which makes him damn rare, and therefore potentially special.
Age isn’t as much a factor for him as it would be for most prospects (although grover, you’ve generously understated his age by a year). In the first place, catchers often mature later and get cut a bit of slack in this regard. Second, the reason a 26-year-old triple-A-er is generally considered a non-prospect is that he’s at (or already beyond) his physical peak and that he’s already had years of training in which to perfect his skills, so there just isn’t that much room for improvement left. That really doesn’t apply to Powell; he got a very late start due to being a 4-year collegian, and he then lost two years development time to injuries. He’s a 26-year-old with the training inputs of a 23-year-old; things left to learn and therefore perhaps much more room yet to grow than you’d think at a glance.
Powell ought to become better offensively and defensively than Suzuki, and I like Suzuki a lot. But Suzuki looks indestructible, whereas Powell will probably always be just one collision away from gimpsterdom.
I recognize the injury discount with Powell is dishearteningly large. All I’m saying is that (unlike Melillo and Petit and most of the other guys you criticize, who have a chance to be OK but almost no chance to be special) Powell still has considerable upside, and if-IF!-he can re-establish value by putting in a healthy year, he could be someone who ranks high on prospect lists and draws plenty of attention from other GMs. (On the mlb level, you could say about the same damn things about Harden, of course.)
by Faust on
May 6, 2008 5:06 PM PDT
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I didn't mean to be generous
You make a very compelling arguement re: Powell, in fact I’ve made a similiar arguement about the man myself. So I’m not going to disagree with you in principle.
That said, when you factor in his age, injury history and lack of big league experience no one is going to pay too high a price to try and trade for him. Even if he has a re-establishing year in Sac he won’t become Oakland’s CarGon, the centerpiece for a dynamic SP.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on
May 6, 2008 6:28 PM PDT
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But wasn't the whole point of the Haren and Swisher trades
to obtain a dynamic SP in the minors so that the team could control him cheaply for his peak years?
A team’s needs are a team’s needs, but ideally speaking you want to invert the order here and trade prospect pitching for established hitting (and/or sign established hitting on the FA market). The returns are much more reliable that way.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
May 6, 2008 6:35 PM PDT
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Powell's best year in terms of value...
...was the last year of his college career.
He was the superstar to be all through his childhood/teendom, played for Team USA, dominated leagues, pounded out homeruns… but what you can get away with in your youth (being overweight but powerful) isn’t going to play outside of college.
Powell got really serious last season, when he was ‘this close’ to seeing his career end, but when contrasted with Suzuki, who never had 1/3 of Powell’s raw talent, but realized that he’d have to work three times harder than anyone else to make it and did so… I sure as hell know who I’d be trading for if I was another team.
And it ain’t the guy with the jammy knees.
Notes From The Nat has a new home: http://www.natnotes.com
by Ozzz on
May 7, 2008 10:30 AM PDT
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I apologize for rashly accusing you of generosity
It was a provacative word.
And if Powell can’t become CarGon, maybe he could become the Cunningham or Carter or G. Gonzalez of a trade. A key part, if not quite the can’t-miss guy. Although frankly I’m not that keen to give him up.
And please stop writing “arguement,” or I’ll report you to the language nazis (easily done, since I carry a card myself) and have you deported to Halos Heaven, where of course no standards apply.
by Faust on
May 6, 2008 6:44 PM PDT
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Don't mess with me Faust
You trying kicking me over to HH and I’ll drag as many SOBs as I can with me. You’ll be first on the list.
Ironically, my stubborn fight would ultimately improve HH and the last thing I want to do is something that would make Rev look competent.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on
May 6, 2008 7:05 PM PDT
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You may (just possibly) be committing the sin of arrogance, grover
Making the Rev look competent is beyond even your considerable powers.
by Faust on
May 6, 2008 9:12 PM PDT
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I could only do it with the help
of AN’s 10-12 best posters. Nothing against (most) of the posters at HH, but Rev really is that bad.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on
May 6, 2008 9:18 PM PDT
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