(Over)Reactions: Jack Cust is Back! So is BoCro! and Kenny Williams Swindled Billy Beane {no exclamation mark}

by devo on May 4, 2008 4:15 PM PDT Comment 62 comments

Jack Cust is back. After today’s game, Jack Cust is riding a seven game hit streak over which he has posted a .458 Avg, .552 OBP and .791 Slg, good for a 1.343 OPS. What’s more, over those seven games he’s only struck out five times. Incredible, just incredible. I think I have figured out what his problem was … he’s not used to playing baseball in March/April. His first PA in Japan was only his second ever in the early season. Not only that, but in that one at bat he struck out as a pinch hitter facing Ramiro Mendoza in a blowout loss to the Red Sox. Curiously, the player he replaced was none other than Larry Bigbie. April has been a traumatic month for Cust.

via assets.sbnation.com

Bobby Crosby has a four game hitting streak of his own after doubling this afternoon against a righty starter. He’s batting .400 with 3 doubles and a pair of walks – good for a 1.071 OPS, raising his season’s OPS to .737. The kid is hot!

With the news that Fautino de los Santos is headed to the minor league DL with a sore elbow and a rough five games (5.87 era) to start the season, Ryan Sweeney batting under .200 with no extra base hits over the last 11 games and Gio Gonzalez off to a slow start (5.00 era and a k/9 of only 7.0 after posting an 11.1 last season) I think it is becoming clear that Kenny Williams swindled Billy Beane. In the history of A’s baseball, the Danny Haren trade will be remembered as Mark Mulder part two and times two, having returned twice the players and possibly twice the talent that Mark Mulder did, while our much beloved Nick Swisher will be remembered in the same breath as the bulldog, Tim Hudson. Is it a karma thing? Does Billy Beane not have the attention span to deal with two trades at once? Does his shit simply not work with fan favorites? I don’t know, but I think one thing is clear – devo felt like writing a silly article this Sunday afternoon.

0 recs | Comment 62 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

I don't know

But I’d have been okay with the Haren trade all by itself being our rebuilding.

by mikev on May 4, 2008 4:20 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

this is the kind of analysis andeux loathes

And what did we do once we discovered a rift in the fourth dimension? We launched a monkey into it. @('.')@

by monkeyball on May 4, 2008 4:21 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

If I need a spokesmonkey

I’ll ask for one.

"Tomorrow it may rain." - Leo Durocher

by andeux on May 4, 2008 5:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I could use a helpermonkey

Notes From The Nat has a new home: http://www.natnotes.com

by Ozzz on May 5, 2008 1:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Based on early returns

It appears that Beane and Williams might have swindled each other; Swisher has been pretty crappy so far. Of course, as you know, early returns aren’t always reliable. In Swisher’s case, however, one does have to wonder whether he is simply not as good as 2006 made him seem. He was OK but not great in 2005, fantastic in 2006, declined in 2007, and has so far continued to decline in 2008. The trend line isn’t exactly favoring the idea that Swisher is, or will be, a star.

by BlameChannel53 on May 4, 2008 4:29 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

His power declined slightly in 2007

but he made more contact, walked more. He exchanged HRs’ for walks, doubles, and cutting down on strikeouts.

His BABIP so far this season is 243. His LD rate is 22.4%. Last 2 years his BABIP was 283, 301, with LD rates of 19.3% and 17.5%. He’s almost certainly been a bit unlucky, and hitting balls right at fielders. His ground ball rate has stayed steady, so it’s not as if he’s become slap hitter.

His infield fly rate is a slight concern. It was 11.2% in 2006, 9.5% in 2007, 12.9% this year. 10% is typically average. The one thing that might be a concern is his HR per flyball rate, 18% in 2006, 12.3% in 2007, 8.9% in 2008

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on May 5, 2008 12:28 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

All good points, however . . .

Swisher is a take and rake Three True Outcomes hitter who’s home run power has declined from its high in 2006.

While it is laudable that Swisher made gains in plate discipline in 2007 and raised his batting average while lowering his strikeouts, his star potential is very much dependent on his ability to hit for power, because he is unlikely to ever hit for average (although his OBP will likely always be above average because of his excellent plate discipline.)

His 2008 numbers are obviously still a small sample size, and I would expect his numbers to increase not only because he has been unlucky but because he is more talented than he’s shown thus far in 2008. However, if his power once again declines over a full year, the perception of Swisher as a young and emerging star becomes more myth than reality. His decline in power from 2006 is particularly disturbing given that the one consistent knock from scouts during his college days and minor league career was that he had limited power potential. 2006 may have been Swisher’s best year, and if so, Beane definitely traded high.

by BlameChannel53 on May 5, 2008 12:49 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Swisher's EQA

in 2006 was 288. His EQA in 2007 was 291. 23.7 Batting Runs in 2006, 27.3 Batting Runs in 2007. His OBP in 2007 was not just above average. He had a 381 OBP. League average in Oakland was 329.

He also plays good D in a corner. He can play CF. So far this year, by Revised Zone Rating, he’s at a very solid 941, in CF. He hasn’t played enough innings to qualify, but if he did, only Carlos Gomez, already phenomenal defensively, but needs lots of work offensively, and Grady Sizemore, rate higher in the AL. And he has also made a solid number of out of zone plays, 14. Guys in the AL with more who qualify, Adam Jones, BJ Upton, Torii Hunter. And it is not just RZR that has him holding his own in CF. By Zone Rating, Swisher has a 957 rating. Limiting the list to guys who have played more than 100 innings at CF, the only player in the AL who ranks higher is Carlos Gomez. Swisher has played 140 innings, the regular CFs in the AL have played 200-250 innings so far.

His value goes far beyond just power. Swisher is NOT your typical TTO, “Moneyball”, yes I know that is a cliched definition of Moneyball, type player. If he hits like he did in 2007, while playing acceptable D in CF, that’s a star.

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on May 5, 2008 7:12 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

In case it wasn't clear in my post

obviously, SSZ, the defensive metrics should be used cautiously, etc.

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on May 5, 2008 7:26 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Trades:

I heard that in baseball 1-2 is awesome!

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on May 4, 2008 4:31 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

What?

So you’re saying that I shouldn’t have picked up Cust for my fantasy team?

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on May 4, 2008 4:56 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I would say that whoever dropped him to begin with is the one who made the mistake ...

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on May 4, 2008 5:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's a sensible statement

I thought you were going for silliness today?

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on May 4, 2008 6:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Eh ... the moment passed ...

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on May 4, 2008 6:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Really?

Your moods are more fickle than my wife’s sex drive.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on May 4, 2008 8:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hmm...Your wife's sex drive

seems fine to me. {shrug}

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on May 4, 2008 9:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

ZING!

Green Hulk Fists

by oaklandSMASH on May 4, 2008 9:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

You mean she gets randy like a...

nevermind.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on May 4, 2008 9:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Randy like a ...

Bell?

"Tomorrow it may rain." - Leo Durocher

by andeux on May 5, 2008 10:08 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Her sex drive disappears tragically, never to resurface?

Chiba Lotte lost simultaneously in the fighter plane of the Japanese ham.

by JediLeroy on May 5, 2008 1:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

But so much more fulfilled ...

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on May 4, 2008 9:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's because

I care about how you feel

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on May 4, 2008 9:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's sweet ... thanks, buddy ...

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on May 4, 2008 11:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Swisher trade is a wash thus far

Swisher has not done well in Chicago yet. On the flip side, Sweeney belongs in AAA (and will likely be there once CarGon gets called up), Gio is struggling after starting off well, and DLS is nursing a sore arm.

Its a good bet that all of these guys (except maybe Sweeney) will bounce back, but both trades are being masked because of other good trades that went on right before them.

Swisher is being covered by Quentin, who’s on fire.
Gio/DLS/Sweeney are being covered by the Haren Haul

I put on my robe and wizard hat.

by Zonis on May 4, 2008 5:48 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

or possibly sweeney to AAA

when Buck gets back?

by demarius12 on May 5, 2008 9:40 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not to mention...

Swisher money > prospect money

Lean A’s.

Notes From The Nat has a new home: http://www.natnotes.com

by Ozzz on May 5, 2008 1:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Gio Struggling.....

At least theoretically, how hard is the jump from AA to AAA? How high is the increase in the level of competition?

by Bitey on May 4, 2008 7:49 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Anecdotally, I've heard

that players lose 20% of production coming up from AAA and 30% from AA, which would mean that AAA is .8/.7= 1.14 times as hard as AA…

Also, though, keep in mind that frequently top pitching prospects will spend time working on specific issues, which can cause ugly statlines at times.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on May 4, 2008 7:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

For a guy with a plus arm,

Gio sure gets traded a lot. Of course that also means he gets acquired a lot.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on May 4, 2008 9:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

He's just the right combination of good and available

Not so awesome as to be untouchable, yet just awesome enough that every team would like to have him.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on May 4, 2008 9:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

he's not the Gonzalez that I'm excited about anyway

Foolsh, the most insane regular poster on AN since oaktoon left - salb

by FoolshGame22 on May 4, 2008 9:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

he was first signed by the White Sox

then traded to the Phillies, then traded back to the White Sox (who wanted him back), and then traded to the A’s because Kenny Williams really, really wanted Swish.

Some prospects are traded a whole lot more, and not as headliners either.

by OaklandSi on May 4, 2008 10:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Carter

Just wanted to add that Cris Carter is amazing. I saw a few ports games this year and that guy absolutely mashes. Bound for the team soon.

by apilgrim on May 4, 2008 9:44 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Carters stats

Carter Age 22 this season (From WhiteSox to DBacks to A’s)
112 AB .268/ .598/.962 AVG/SLG/OPS 10 HR 27 RBI 3 2B 25 R 17 BB 28 K

Just for fun Doolitle
113 AB .345/ .637/1.048 AVG/SLG/OPS 7 HR 26 RBI 8 2B 24 R 14 BB 31 K
Sulentic
87 AB .322 /.506/.918 AVG/SLG/OPS 2 HR 11 RBI 6 2B 19 R 13 BB 25 K

by apilgrim on May 4, 2008 9:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's weird to leave out the most important of basic rate stats

I know it’s included in OPS, but, why make us do the subtraction?

http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/

by thejd44 on May 4, 2008 10:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think Cust has played a lot of April baseball...

that can’t be the reason. ;-)

Foolsh, the most insane regular poster on AN since oaktoon left - salb

by FoolshGame22 on May 4, 2008 9:56 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Thomas?

Should we mention Thomas in here too since we’re looking at early returns?

Over the last ten games he’s hitting .294 with an OBP of .400 Looks like he and Cust are both coming off their rusty starts and heating up.

I’ll let Fautino de los Santo & Gio Gonzalez chill out in the minors this year and get some important development from the A’s pitching coaches. We all weren’t really thinking that Ryan Sweeney was going to do us any huge favors, so that’s not a surprise. But this is early returns and those stats are not promising for any of them.

It's just more exciting with Billy Beane running the team.

by ru155 on May 5, 2008 7:59 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Whats with

All of the Ryan Sweeney hate? He’s not that bad, and I’d much rather have him play than Denorfia (who has the most ridiculous facial hair ever BTW). I know he hasn’t been hitting for power, but he has 14 or 16 rbi’s (can’t remember off hand). So I say let him play, he has potential.

Also, we have Cust, Thomas, and Mike Sweeney at DH, does one get cut soon?

Go A's!!!

by stephanc101 on May 5, 2008 8:19 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Ryan Sweeney

I think the hate has to do with the fact that he has a slugging percentage that is lower than his on base percentage. Add to that he is learning how to play center field on the job (and appears to have real trouble with his breaks and taking charge) and it is tough to appease fans.

I think it is fair to criticize his offensive performance, he believes he is a major league outfielder and has mentioned wanting to play the corners more often. He can’t play the corners without hitting for more power, be it doubles.

The defensive criticism is valid, but not entirely his fault. He is learning on the job and all. I would rather see DeeNo (rhymes why Eno) in center field more often and Sweeney finding more power in Sacramento.

by jeffro on May 5, 2008 10:50 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not hating on Sweeney ... he's just not quite ready for the show yet ...

If you’re an outfielder and you cannot hit for power and you cannot play center field competently, you are not a Major Leaguer. Now, don’t get me wrong, I’m optimistic that Sweeney can learn to do one or both of those things with more seasoning—he’s just not there yet.

As far as his 14 RBIs, RBIs are more of a function of opportunity than performance.
Link
As you will notice, if you click that little link, Ryan Sweeney has benefited from 48% more runners than an average player would have been expected to and 72% more RISP.

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on May 5, 2008 11:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

You're right ... I shouldn't be so dogmatic ... if he played like Rickey Henderson, Ichiro Suzuki, Tony Gwynn or a handful of others

he could get away with not hitting for power or playing CF … but he doesn’t do that, either …

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on May 5, 2008 11:15 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Corrected

If you’re an outfielder and you cannot hit for power and you cannot play center field competently, you are ~~not a Major Leaguer~~ Scott Podsednik.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on May 5, 2008 11:21 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fair'nuff ...

cannot argue with that …

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on May 5, 2008 11:42 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Juan Pierre?

by methodrampage on May 5, 2008 12:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not that it's an accomplishment ...

but he is better than Pods in pretty much every regard …

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on May 5, 2008 12:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

arm strength?

Jeremy was safe. He jumped over the tag.

by mrrickyg on May 5, 2008 2:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

They had to call it a tie ...

neither could throw hard enough to register on the radar gun …

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on May 5, 2008 2:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I guess that makes it impossible to overthrow the cutoff if you're constantly short hopping him

so their arms might be better than Emil’s.

by methodrampage on May 5, 2008 2:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

If we're writing off the Swisher Trade let's not forget the Kotsay trade

by methodrampage on May 5, 2008 12:03 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

(That doesn't conform nicely to my overreaction in comparing it to past failures ...)

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on May 5, 2008 12:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I believe he's actually claiming it WAS a failure

which is rubbish, frankly. Devine’s been excellent and looks like a key bullpen piece for years to come.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on May 5, 2008 12:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Huh ...

Just one, highly imperfect measure (one that underrates relievers, for instance) ... but Mark Kotsay, 2 BRAA + 3 FRAA = 5 RAA, Joey Devine = 5 (P)RAA … which also overlooks the fact that the last time Kotsay hit this well as five years ago, when he was 28 and, theoretically, peaking and the fact that we get Joey Devine for another five cost controlled years.

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on May 5, 2008 12:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Just to clarify I do not think of the Devine/Kotsay trade as a failure

Much like I don’t consider the Swisher/Gio et al trade a failure.

by methodrampage on May 5, 2008 2:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

You do realize, of course, that I don't, either ...

as I thought I was making clear, nothing in this article was meant to be taken the least bit seriously.

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on May 5, 2008 2:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think the (Over) was a dead give away

by methodrampage on May 5, 2008 2:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good, good ... sometimes such subtleties get lost in the internets ...

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on May 5, 2008 3:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

OK, fair enough

In that case I’m back to not understanding what the original comment meant… oh well.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on May 5, 2008 3:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Analyzing a trade just a few months after it happened...

..is like analyzing a marriage during the honeymoon.

Notes From The Nat has a new home: http://www.natnotes.com

by Ozzz on May 5, 2008 1:33 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Dude...

If my honeymoon was as rocky as Gio Gonzales start in Sacramento… it might have been time to rethink the “get married” decision.

by jeffro on May 5, 2008 3:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

all that hate.....

go look at the stats, swisher is batting worst then ryan sweeney. give the kid some credit for coming through with the big rbis. so what if he doesnt hit for power. as long as he gets on, move the runners and bring them in he is doing his part

by Wreckonized on May 5, 2008 4:08 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

He doesn't get on (.325 OBP) ...

move runners over (15 Ks, 3 GIDP, 0 SH - which project to 120, 24 and 0 on a full season - that’s a lot, except for the SH, which is too bad, since it’s a good thing … sort of …), or drive them in at a higher rate than would be expected for the runners available to him (link...

Or am I looking at the wrong stats?

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on May 5, 2008 4:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe Wreckonized is looking at the wrong Sweeney

GreenandGoldSooner is still unsure whether Mike Sweeney is Mike or Ryan Sweeney.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on May 5, 2008 5:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs