tonight by going 6 innings. Can that be serious?

Excuse me, but I don’t want a guy who gives up 6 runs and “saves the bullpen”—that’s a formula for a team that will be lucky to win 60 games.

vs BOS: 6 IP, 7H, 2ER (lost 1-2)
vs CLE: 6 IP, 7H, 2ER (lost 1-2)
at CLE: 7 IP, 4H, 2ER (lost 0-2)

and Street blew a save for him on opening day.

oh yea, and he has wins at CLE, at SEA, and vs BOS.

so while he is 3-7, he could easily be 6-4 if he had any run support.

oh yea, and he typically goes up against the other teams #1.

I think Blanton is a good #3 starter who is taking on the role of ace, and doing a manageable job.

It’s been a while since I’ve seen a good one of those. Of course, I think last time around the opposing number was me.

Um, as far as the thread topic goes? Blanton is a #2 on an average team and a #3 on a playoff team. So the goal is, in theory, “find 2 pitchers who are better than Joe Blanton for your team.” Given the anemic A’s offense, maybe we’re really talking THREE pitchers who fit that bill, but so far they’ve been up to the challenge, so whatever.

Really the only relevant points here are: a. he hasn’t done nearly badly enough to warrant being benched, or to inspire any belief that his stretch of rough performance is more than a rough patch, and b. statistical cherrypicking/unnecessary use of small sample sizes is reprehensible.

I never understood why Blanton doesn’t get more Ks. He has a pretty good fastball at 90-93 mph with a little sink, a very good curveball, a darn good slider, and can generally hit spots. He just doesn’t have any deception whatsoever.

I would love if Curt Young would work with him on hiding the ball a little better, because he doesn’t seem to fool anyone. I don’t see many hitters that look off balance against Joe. And that’s what worries me about him in the future. The minute he loses that 2 mph on his fastball, he’s going to get knocked around like a pinata.

Well, my preferred metric for judging pitchers is VORP. The BP web site doesn’t let you separate out starters, but I can limit things by innings, which can do almost the same thing.

Joe Blanton has a VORP of 6.9 this year

Among pitchers with at least 80 innings pitched he is last of only 5 AL pitchers with that many innings pitched, (James Shields is 4th)
Among pitchers with at least 70 IP, he is 19/25 (Behind Vicente Padilla, ahead of CC Sabathia)
Among pitchers with at least 60 IP, he is 27/44 (Behind Josh Beckett, ahead of Brian Burres)
Among pitchers with at least 50 IP, he is 29/54 (Between Beckett and Burres again)
Among pitchers with at least 40 IP, he is 30/61 (Between Beckett and Armando Galaraga)
Among pitchers with at least 30 IP, he is 39/83 (Between Beckett and Galaraga again)
30 IP starts to get a few relievers, going to 20 there are a ton of relievers

I look at this and see someone who has been pitching like a 2/3 starter this year and who was #15 in the league last year #30 2 years ago and #9 in the league in 2005. (Among ERA title qualifiers) I see Beckett and Sabathia near to what Blanton has produced this year and I would not give up on their careers. Let’s not let 1/3 of a season cause us to give up on Blanton this year.

I wasn’t looking for a fight—the fight had already begun over the word “mediocre”. This thread was a response to the debate that ensued about a week or so ago.

What I think the Blanton devotees either won’t, or can’t , acknowledge, is the pretty unmistakable arc of his career.

His best period of extended pitching was in his rookie year. That was the one season where he was clearly significantly above average—ERA+ of 123.

His worst period of extended pitching began last July and is ongoing. ERA+ of 89 this season—I think it was probably worse for the past three months of last year. He has been significantly below average in that stretch.

Question: which data should we trust more in making a judgement about Blanton—2005, or now? I think the answer to that is self-evident.

In between those two extremes he was almost exactly at the median—99 ERA+ (though to be fair better than that the first half of last season). And leaving out the semantics of the argument it is here where we get into the “innings eater” debate—I do think there is value over the long run for sparing a bullpen, particularly if the pitcher is above average. I think that value starts to drop as one’s performance slides to the major league average or below. Depending on the exact configuration of a team’s bullpen, you start to get into a situation where that pitcher is hurting the team’s chance to win each and every game the longer he stays in that game—and is that tradeoff worth the longer term savings to the pen?? Over the last 188 Blanton innings, i’d have to say the answer to that is a pretty unequivocal No. Blanton 2005 the answer is clearly Yes. And Blantion 2006-07—in toto—it’s a close call. And that is why Beane has been unable to deal him so far.

So if grover and others want to get on a high horse and think they somehow shattered my basic case, and that i wasn’t prepared for the hornet’s nest reaction which I got, a) the nest was already stirred; b) my wasps are better and sting harder than yours.

There are 79 AL starters either in their rotations now or who have made at least 5 starts (most of the latter are shelved due to either injury or performance)

Based on ERA+, Blanton is tied with Paul Byrd for 53rd.

Essentially right at the 2/3-1/3 mark.

He is within 5 pts of Wakefield, Bannister, Millwood and Feldman, but leads by fewer than 5 pts over Burres, Sabathia, Hochevar, Jered Weaver and Livan Hernandez.

Bottom line is that so far—and no, i don’t hope it continues this way—Blanton is well down the list in the 2nd half of AL Starters. He’d be a 4 or worse on most teams this year, and in fact would be a 4 or worse on most teams last July.

After reading madmongoose’s diary and subsequent defense(s), I am now amazed at how great our GM is. He was able to get an amazing haul of six top level prospects for one guy, Dan Haren. As we all know Haren scuffled in the 2nd half of last season to the tune of a 4.37 ERA in his last 105 IP. Since this was his most recent MLB performance, I am amazed that the D-Backs gave us what they did for this pitcher with barely average numbers at the end of ‘07. Good thing Billy was able to trick them into looking at his overall career MLB numbers. (Side Note: His current success with Arizona is not relevant as it was not known at the time of the trade and it does not really support my arguement very well – therefore I choose to ignore those samples that do not agree with me).

Second item: I think it is funny that in your description of “proof” of Blanton’s lousy-ness, you tell us that he is a few ERA+ points ahead of CC Sabathia. This guy won the freaking Cy Young last year, but by your standards, his low ERA+ this year makes him a mediocre pitcher, or whatever the term would be in your world for a pitcher that sucks even more then Blanton. You would probably bring up your arguement of Blanton having a bad ERA if you combine the end of last year and the stats pitched this year, but did you know that if you took Sabathia’s stats from May and July of last year and combine them with his stats from this year his ERA is only 4.64. (If you get to pick a small subset of last year’s stats that best support your claim, I can do the same). I guess then, Sabathia better be ready to get underpaid next year as by these stats we can see he is not the great pitcher we thought he was when looking at silly things like his overall performance last year or his career MLB numbers.

If your whole arguement is that Blanton has been a below average pitcher so far this year, that is probably correct. But if your arguement is that this somehow means that Blanton is a below average pitcher based on this current small sample of stats, well you are just wrong. The best numbers to look at, especially with Blanton still being quite young, are his overall stats. Those numbers tell us that Blanton is still average to slightly above average (career ERA+ of 103), that CC Sabathia is better then that (career ERA+ of 114), and that Cliff Lee cannot quite yet be considered the second coming of Cy Young (career ERA+ of 100).

1) Where did I ever say he had a below average career? I have said—emphatically—that he is “very mediocre” this year. And that he is decidedly beneath the midpoint of AL starters this year—call that below average, because it is. And that it isn’t JUST this year—to respond to some others who seem to me misguided here—but in fact stems back to last July. And that outside of 2005, IN TOTO—his record has been what I term “mediocre” and what others might call “average”. The only full season where Blanton was clearly above average was his first.

2) As to all the straw mans the less informed keep putting up, Bret Saberhagen alternated Cy Young quality years with substandard years—when has Blanton ever done that? CC Sabathia has already demonstrated Cy Young talent—he got off to a horrendous start but has clearly found his form lately, unlike Blanton who—to repeat—has now been fair to poor FOR NEARLY A FULL SEASON. The fatigue of pitching in the playoffs and a ercord number of innings for CC might have had something to do with his poor start—doncha think? What is Blanton’s excuse?? As to the Dan Haren comment, Haren had 3 full seasons as an A with performance clearly better than Blanton’s career mark—his best season was the last, which certainly helps one’s trade value, despite the tailoff in the 2nd half. Beane was trading quality—and he made a great deal to get quality back. With Blanton, not so much.

3) as to the “only 188 innings” line, I would simply point out as calmly as possible, that the principal refutation being offered up to attack my view is based on a sample size of a whopping 202 innings—in 2005. I repeat—which are more valid—the 200 innings in 2005 or the 190 innings happening right now?;

I think Blanton isn’t the “Ace” by any other means than by default. He’s consistent at what he does, and in my mind I’d take Harden/Duke/Smith/Eveland over him any day. That being said, it’s good to have him on the roster and he provides depth and stability to the rotation.

It kind of seems like MM was getting a little hammered for his original diary. Right or wrong, why not just let him have his opinion in peace?

If I may….the post 3 above yours sounds very clearly to me like somebody attempting, in vain, to discuss what he feels is valid, and it’s free from any attacks, insinuated or otherwise. However, you continue to harp on one line, not his “whole post” as you state. He clearly does want to discuss this in peace, it seems a few of you just can’t let that be. If I am wrong, all apologies, but his most recent post, a mere three above yours, is not peaceful? Also, one above yours….I’m not alone in thinking this cat got unfairly hammered for a poor approach….

So in a nutshell for anyone wandering in

MMongoose/OaktownMario
1) After 2005, Blanton has been an average pitcher (I’m assuming run of the mill = average)
2) Since the 2nd half of last year he’s been a fair-to-poor pitcher
3) His stats since 2nd half of last year are indicative of likely foreseeable future performance
4) He is not worthy of a 3 spot on most teams’ rotations

PosterNutBag44
Can’t we all get along? MM/OTM has a point

Everyone else
1) Blanton overall (for his career) is an above average pitcher, a 2- / 3+ pitcher
2) 2005 is not the “true” Blanton
3) 2nd half of 2007-2008 is not the “true” Blanton
4) He’s acceptable for what he has given us and will improve this year

That sound about right?

All-in-all, this diary has taken on a very 2006 Oaktoonesque “the skying is falling / ship is sinking on Blanton” kind of vibe, except Oaktoon wasn’t quite as overt about his statistical fallacies. Along those lines, I hope that Blanton rips off a streak of 3 games of 7IP, 2-3 ER (night home vs LAA&NYY, night road @ Arizona) to throw the “trend/arc” back in the other direction … Moreso because I’d be happy to see him do well, and less so to prove MM/OTM wrong.

You guys really don’t get the point, do you? It has nothing to do with a “code” or a “system insisting on decent conduct”. It has to do with conducting yourselves in a responsible manner which in turn would reflect upon your fellow posters. I can’t possibly be any more clear on anything I’ve said. Do people need “strikes”? Absurd and arbitrary. All that’s being said, apparently to deaf ears, is that conducting yourselves (i.e. grover above, telling somebody that if their opinion is different from his, then he is an idiot {still indefensible, to me}) more appropriately would probably lead to less diaries like this, where certain people feel the need to take the snark personally enough to stoop to name-calling. It’s crystal clear, gentlemen. As to the “bad arguements” line, can you honestly tell me there isn’t a valueable debate in there? I think there is. I think it’s quite interesting to look deeply into Blanton’s year thus far. Granted, it’s early, but it’s a very, very good debate to have and it’s a shame you feel this isn’t worth the time (please spare me the “he baited us” bit too, as I’ve covered my opinion on that quite clearly as well).

Try this:
Person A is upset because he read Person B’s essay and found it abrasive, smug, and rudely directed at him in some fashion. Person A often displays similar attitude in his own writings, not because he’s a jerk, but because the way he writes gets a lot of readers to pay attention and stimulates debate. Person B tried, and failed, to grasp the same type of writing and audience. In Person B’s failure, Person A has decided to berate, and attack the intelligence of Person B over difference of opinion, claiming it is only because he was provoked by the writing. See the problem?