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The Next 10 Days, The Next 10, And The Next 10

Goat_tiny by Nico on

It appears the A's season has been portioned, for June anyway, into a series of 10-day plans. For another 10 days, the A's will be without Ryan Sweeney but all indications are that Sweeney will be ready to go the day he is eligible to come off the DL. Andrew Brown's timeline appears to be about the same as Sweeney's, while limping sluggers Frank Thomas (thanks to the untimely return of interleague play), and relievers Casilla and Devine, figure to be non-factors for at least another three weeks. Mike Sweeney's prognosis is a little less clear. So...

The Next 10 Days (June 1st-June 10th)

For the next 10 days, as the A's take on the Rangers, Angels, and Tigers, we are looking at:

* A core infield of Barton, Ellis, Crosby, Chavez, with Hannahan in the mix.
* A core outfield of Buck, Gonzalez, E. Brown, with Cust in the lineup as DH.
* Two starts each from Harden, Blanton, and Smith, one each from Duchscherer and  * Eveland.
* A bullpen with Street flanked by a potentially effective platoon known as Ziegbree, plus Foulke and Gaudin.

Conclusion: The rotation will save the A's, the bullpen will be thin, and the offense depends on the fast start of Gonzalez and/or the timely returns to form of Buck and Barton. Thanks largely to the rotation, the A's have enough strength, still, to go 4-4 or better and that's what they need to do.

The next 10 Days (June 10th-June 20th)

Here's where things get complicated, as presumably players start to return, others may or may not get injured, but certainly more roster moves are necessitated. As the A's take on the Yankees, Giants, Diamondbacks, and begin a series with the Marlins, we are looking at:

* A core infield of Barton, Ellis, Crosby, Chavez, with Hannahan in the mix.
* An outfield of Buck, Gonzalez, and Ryan Sweeney, with Emil Brown likely relegated to 4th OF status (probably starting against a couple lefties) and Cust staying at DH vs. NYY and then competing with (probably) Buck for OF starts in the NL parks - do you want more offense/power or stronger defense?
* Two starts each from Harden, Blanton, Duchscherer, Smith, and Eveland.
* A slightly reinforced bullpen that adds Andrew Brown to the mix but still misses Casilla and Devine, who figure to miss most if not all of June.

Conclusion: The OF defense will improve to become a strength instead of a weakness, and the return of A. Brown, while helpful, will not feel anything like the returns of Casilla and Devine - possibly a week or two later. But if the rotation stays intact, given the relatively tame level of competition, the A's can go 5-5 or better during this stretch - and that's what they need to do.

Then...June 20th...Thomas should be back to DH, Mike Sweeney should be back, Casilla and Devine's returns should be imminent...but by then who knows which three other players will be dead. If it's Hannahan, Braden, and Rajai Davis, the A's should be ok; if it's Harden, Street, and Ellis, not so much.

Conclusion: Don't bother thinking ahead beyond three weeks. If you have a solid and deep rotation, you can compete. Go A's.

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I just hope Buck

regains his form. He looked lost again last night, first swinging at a really high fastball and then letting another pitch go by. I know it was one game, but he just doesn’t look like the same guy as last year. The A’s must have Buck hit like he did last year.

by Blez on May 31, 2008 9:03 AM PDT   0 recs

The scary thing is,

it’s possible Buck overachieved a bit last year. After getting called up to Midland in 2006, he had 212 AA at-bats and had an .843 OPS. In 2007, he had an .851 OPS in 283 at-bats.

How many guys raise their OPS after jumping two levels to the big leagues? The concept of Minor League Equivalencies would suggest that Buck wasn’t expected to be an .851 OPS hitter last year – that he overachieved.

As a fan, I think we all want to think, “Wow, that was a terrific year; he’ll build on that and put up better numbers next year since he’ll be older and have more experience.” But if he overachieved in Year 1, that becomes a heck of a lot harder.

I am nonetheless very excited about a Buck/CarGon/Sweeney OF.

"Let’s just hope he’s not a complete turd out there." -thejd44, describing Crosby's best scenario.

by notsellingjeans on May 31, 2008 1:21 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Well summarized, Nico. Have you tried doing Proust?

Anyway, if any of us think our jobs are complicated, imagine being Bob Geren at this point. Have you ever done an SAT/GRE/LSAT logic problem? Figuring out his lineup and bullpen usage is like one of those problems with like 30 parameters. Remember, for instance, that Chavez has to DH every 3rd day, which changes Cust and Hannahan’s roles. And when I took the GRE many years ago, there wasn’t a blog called “Nick Nation” where people would post comments like, “C? I can’t believe Nick chose C on problem 21!! Fire Nick now!!”

Incidentally, AFAIK, there still isn’t a “Nick Nation” blog. Although Google has revealed to me the incredibly geeky blog Nick’s Nation, which has nothing to do with me. Swear to god.

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on May 31, 2008 9:04 AM PDT   0 recs

Yes, some of the issues that are implied in my post,

but not stated, are that if everyone is healthy then by June 20th we have a roster with Buck, Gonzalez, R. Sweeney, Thomas, and Cust, and not enough spots to play them all. However, history tells us that this problem will take care of itself when two are injured, two are utterly ineffective, and Rajai Davis is starting every day alongside Danny Putnam (and for two days, Ryan Langerhans).

And yes, please do check out my other blog, called Nico Analyzes Proust: Fire Proust Now!

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on May 31, 2008 9:21 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

It can be argued that Putnam should've been called up over Buck

Except that would’ve required another 40-man move.

http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/

by thejd44 on May 31, 2008 9:24 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I think Buck was always going to be called up on May 30th

The A’s wanted him to regain his stroke and confidence after the injury shelved him for a bit anyway, and Beane took the opportunity to take care of the service time issue so that we now have Buck in 2013. Gonzalez’ call up probably happened only because R. Sweeneyswent down, but I imagine the A’s knew a while ago that Buck would be with Sacramento on May 29th and with Oakland on May 30th.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on May 31, 2008 9:26 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I agree

And I’m not saying it’s a bad move. Buck has more upside. You just made the joke about Putnam and I wanted to point out that he’s hitting well right now. But, again, he’s also a lefty. I guess you can’t have too many lefties if they all can hit LHP.

http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/

by thejd44 on May 31, 2008 9:35 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

This post makes me wish the A's had some right handed OFs

who weren’t completely awful at the plate.

I like Cust, Swooney, Gonzalez, and Buck just fine. But they all hit left-handed. All three of their OFs in Sacramento hit lefty (btw, Danny Putnam is still killing the ball in Sacramento). All their right-handed OFs are in AA or lower. Cunningham is probably closest to the majors, but it’s not like he’s expected to contribute this year. A lot of people see him as a 4th OF anyway.

http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/

by thejd44 on May 31, 2008 9:23 AM PDT   0 recs

Not me!

Heh.

Cunningham is a significantly better prospect than Ryan Sweeney, at any rate.

Denorfia hits right-handed… I can’t tell if you were including him in the “completely awful at the plate” category, but if you were, I really can’t agree with that statement.

If you don’t like him then, well, Pat Burrell will be available for a modest eight-figure paycheck this offseason.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on May 31, 2008 10:50 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

He's not a significantly better prospect

Age 20:
Sweeney: .728 OPS in AA
Cunningham: .882 OPS in low A
that’s pretty much a wash
Age 21:
Sweeney: .802 OPS in AAA
Cunningham: .884 OPS in mostly high A/some AA
Advantage to Sweeney
Age 22:
Sweeney:.746 OPS in AAA, .598 briefly in MLB
Cunningham: .872 OPS so far in AA
Advantage to Cunningham, but Sweeney was battling injuries.
Age 23:
Sweeney .760 OPS so far in MLB

Overall, pretty similar.

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on May 31, 2008 11:00 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Maybe not by MLEs

but I generally view minor league numbers as a rule-of-thumb estimate of a guy’s possibilities in the majors (i.e. if he hits 20 HR in the minors, he’s probably capable of 20 HR in the majors). So I’d rather see a .900 in A ball, or even in college (OK, that’s going too far… it would have to be more like 1.000 in college), than a .700 in AAA, even if the MLEs for those two years are the same (and assuming that the player in question is not OVERage).

I’m also given to understand that Cunningham’s defense is a little better, although obviously I’m not weighing this real heavily because I’ve never really seen him play.

They might have equal chances of turning out to be league-average, I suppose. But I think Cunningham has a substantially better chance of becoming a very good player.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on May 31, 2008 11:17 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I didn't include Denorfia because I think he IS a 4th/5th OF

Which is fine to platoon him against LHP if one of the regular left-handed hitters just can’t hit lefty pitching. He’s useful. He’s more useful than Davis (because he’s fast and skilled defensively, though not as much, but significantly more valuable at the plate). But Denorfia is going to be 28 this summer, has a little over 200 career PA, and can’t stay healthy. In my world, he gets a roster spot over Brown or Davis, but I’m not excited about him.

Also, I really like Cunningham so we’re in the same boat there. But it’s true that a lot of people consider him a second tier prospect. Doesn’t mean they’re right and we’re wrong. Still, I don’t think he’s going to be ready anytime this year.

I’ve always been a Burrell fan, but I’m not going to say the A’s should spend money on him.

http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/

by thejd44 on May 31, 2008 1:09 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

The One Fly in the Ointment

is Barton.

Unless the team just flat falls out of contention over the next few weeks, which is certainly possible but unlikely given the Angel hitting woes, I do think that Barton’s rope will end if he keeps hitting Mendozish. When M Sweeney is ready to return or if Chavez can start to play enough at 3B to shift Hannahan over to first, Barton either gets benched, sent down, or both in sequence. I understand and agree witht BB’s patience so far, but at some point you cannot have a first basemen supplying zero production (remember Karros?) And oh by the way old friend Dan Johnson is tearing up AAA, but we’ve seen that movie so far. Barton is clearly the biggest bust on this team so far—Buck would be in the conversation but for the injuries—I don’t think the patience is limitless.

by madmongoose on May 31, 2008 10:06 AM PDT   0 recs

No question - I agree entirely

Struggling for 1-2 months, and struggling for 2-3 months, are different beasts. If Barton’s June is similar to his May, he’ll be out of the lineup. But if it’s just so-so (.250 average) he’ll probably stay in a platoon with Mike Sweeney – which means he’ll play 3/4 of the time. I wonder what the problem really is – I am perplexed on this one.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on May 31, 2008 10:15 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Remember the mysterious wrist injury that flared up in Arizona and then kept him out of the Giants game?

I’ve wondered all along if this injury has lingered, and explains both his frequent days off and his lousy results.

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on May 31, 2008 11:02 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

You and I think alike -

Except possibly on the matter of struggling beasts.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on May 31, 2008 1:17 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Good job but isee 1 problem

The next ten days will be a test and I do see a trade coming at the end. The one glaring problem with the A’s the next 10 days will be lack of right handed hitters. Crosby, ellis, davis, suzuki, and bowen. Buck is going to need to hit lefties. If barton doesn’t start hitting does he go down to the minors and start hanahan at first. He probably could be a excellent defensive 1b and hit better than Barton. Platoon hanahan and mike sweeney at first. send down braden, barton, zeigler (sorry AN) and trade either foulke or colero. Activate the 2 sweeney’s and thomas and brown.

by Arcman on May 31, 2008 10:12 AM PDT   0 recs

I have to confess, I didn't realize how much

Hannahan has played 1B in his minor league career. A platoon of Hannahan and Mike Sweeney could be very solid overall on offense/defense. Likely, Barton has June to pick it up while Hannahan focuses on 3B and M. Sweeney focuses on getting healthy. Come July 1st, I expect the A’s to go with the guy(s) who have shown they can hit major league pitching in 2008.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on May 31, 2008 10:17 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

On defense, anyway

I don’t understand why Jack Hannahan gets so much love here for his offense. He’s a .700 OPS guy, and probably always will be.

So it goes.

by jeepers on May 31, 2008 10:58 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

His OPS is very OBP heavy

Remember that OPS is just a “back of the envelope” stat.

By OPS+ and EqA, he is basically a league-average hitter.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on May 31, 2008 11:02 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

What do those stats like about him so much?

They must carry some kind of multiplier effect for his patience.

So it goes.

by jeepers on May 31, 2008 11:19 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

OBP is more valuable than SLG

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on May 31, 2008 11:25 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Also,

the league is hitting a lot worse this year (-40 points of OPS), which means everyone looks better than their OPS would suggest when compared to league average. And of course, Hannahan was quite good last year.

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on May 31, 2008 11:34 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I wasn't weighing last year's stats

but his career numbers are better than his numbers this year, so that would enhance rather than diminish his value.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on May 31, 2008 12:03 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

And league average is . . .

above average for an Athletic?

by MobiusKlein on May 31, 2008 11:28 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

But, as a first baseman

He’d be below average (I think his EQA is in the mid .260s right now). Of course, that’s still better than Barton.

http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/

by thejd44 on May 31, 2008 1:18 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I think people assume he'll be optioned

back to Sacramento where he can play everyday. That’s probably for the best.

Although I would not be surprised to see Ellis traded in the next month.

http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/

by thejd44 on May 31, 2008 1:45 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I know but I think BB wants to keep Ellis until he knows who will replace him.

I also think that Petit is going to be the replacement at either short or 2nd after Ellis leaves.

In Nico’s column on June 20th he sends down Hannahan and not Petit. I think it would be the other way around. Hannahan can play all 4 infield spots. And the real question is: who leaves when Murphy comes up?

"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"

by Eastbayjim on May 31, 2008 1:49 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I do? Where?

I’m sure Hannahan will stay up, as he can play 3B and it’s going to be a while before Chavez can play every day. Petit is only up until Murphy is healthy; then it’s one or the other who goes, not Hannahan.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on May 31, 2008 1:56 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Oh, I see what's confusing you -

When I say “dead” I mean randomly injured.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on May 31, 2008 1:57 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Hannahan can't play all 4 IF spots

http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/

by thejd44 on May 31, 2008 2:39 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Devine out at least 6 weeks with strained ligament

Devine has had stiffness in his right forearm all week and he said Friday that an MRI exam showed that he has a strained ulnar collateral ligament along with tendinitis in the flexor muscle and fluid buildup in the area.

“That was a little more than I was hoping,” Devine said. “But we want to make sure it’s all healed up before we proceed.”

by Trainman on May 31, 2008 10:27 AM PDT   0 recs

Chron said "3-6 weeks"

I always favor a more conservative approach, but it’s possible they can be cautious and Devine can still be ready to go in about a month.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on May 31, 2008 10:37 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

And of course it is going to be a confidence thing

with Casilla and Devine when they come back.

I would assume that it is natural to hold back when throwing for fear of re-injury. Hopefully they get plenty of rehab and of course come back in non critical situations.

by Trainman on May 31, 2008 10:44 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I will cringe every time Casilla

snaps off his signature hard slider, so I imagine he will too.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on May 31, 2008 10:45 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Yeah

Harden came back from a “strained elbow ligament” but he doesn’t really provide any useful precedent, since he basically doesn’t throw a slider anymore. Casilla, on the other hand, really can’t do without the slider.

by Faust on May 31, 2008 11:47 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Sure he can - can't he just borrow

Harden’s changeup and fastball?

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on May 31, 2008 1:18 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

That's what Street had

He was out 8-9 weeks….

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on May 31, 2008 10:40 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Isn't Devine a ligament strain type of injury

(whereas Street’s was a nerve injury)? But whatever – Devine won’t be pitching in the near future.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on May 31, 2008 10:42 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Hmmm, yeah

so I guess that’s better?

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on May 31, 2008 10:45 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Devine even.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on May 31, 2008 10:45 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I guess Embree and Gaudin are our "power" arms now...

could be worse. But, a bullpen that once had Devine, Casilla and Brown as options sure looks a lot weaker for the relative long term.

The starting rotation better hold up and go deep into games a lot of games in June or we’re screwed. I know that’s your premise, Nico. I hope you’re right.

Foolsh, the most insane regular poster on AN since oaktoon left - salb

by FoolshGame22 on May 31, 2008 10:50 AM PDT   0 recs

also, I fear Ziggy will be underutilized by Geren and...

Calero and Embree overutilized. We’ll see, though…

Foolsh, the most insane regular poster on AN since oaktoon left - salb

by FoolshGame22 on May 31, 2008 10:54 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Would you prefer overuse?

I suppose there is no middle ground.

My fear is that BZ will be only used in blowouts, leading to sporadic use, then have a ‘thrust into the fire’ moment, lose it, and be sent back down. Not that we’ve seen that happen before…

by MobiusKlein on May 31, 2008 11:02 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

It's hard to tell what it means to "overuse" a submarine thrower

The motion is much less stressful for the arm; the only problems Bradford has had since switching have been with his back. Theoretically, at least, he should be able to pitch a lot more than a pitcher with a traditional motion.

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on May 31, 2008 11:05 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

By underutilized, I meant...

Geren will shy away from using Ziggy in high-leverage situations. He’ll go with the veterans in those situations and, probably, cost us some games. As Nick says, I don’t think a submariner can be “overused” to the point of overstressing his arm. Well, I guess he could be, but I doubt that will ever happen.

Foolsh, the most insane regular poster on AN since oaktoon left - salb

by FoolshGame22 on May 31, 2008 11:30 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

So you mean Ziggy won't be the new closer?

Houston, don’t look behind you.

But really, what do we expect? Regular use, setup man, spot use, extra innings backup?
Hard to know what to expect.

by MobiusKlein on May 31, 2008 11:44 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

To be honest, I expect spot use...

and, a mop-up role. Judging by his AAA stats this year, in a hitters’ league, I think he could handle the setup role, but I expect Geren to stick with Embree and Calero there. I guess, I can’t blame him for that until we see a few innings out of both Calero and Ziggy.

Foolsh, the most insane regular poster on AN since oaktoon left - salb

by FoolshGame22 on May 31, 2008 11:58 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

This is what I was talking about in my comment above

regarding Geren’s job now. Where the bullpen is concerned, he knows that Street is his closer. After that…everything is pretty much up for grabs. He’d definitely stopped using Embree as his regular set-up or 8th-inning guy (that was Casilla, and then Devine). Does he go back to Embree? Does he use Foulke, or Ziggy? What about Gaudin, who was a starter at the beginning of the season? Calero used to fill that role. What is he on the team to do now?

Basically, whatever Geren does he kinda has to wing it, because aside from Street and possibly Embree the bullpen has basically become the Island of Misfit Toys. If his lineup decisions are a guide, he seems to be willing to experiment and fiddle around a little to see what works. As long as he doesn’t do stuff that obviously puts guys in bad situations - off the top of my head, that would include putting Ziggy or Calero in with runners on against a good lefty hitter, or making anyone pitch 4 days in a row - I think we kinda have to cut him some slack over the next few weeks.

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on May 31, 2008 12:06 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

What I expect, based on precedent

(Devine, Casilla, before him, with different managers, Duke and Street) is that Ziggy will be used first in low-leverage situations, then medium, and then can pitch his way into high-leverage situations if he’s effective.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on May 31, 2008 1:21 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Well, Geren tried to use Foulke for two innings last night

Which should really only happen if some crazy fan murders the entire bullpen during a game or something. And even then I’d consider Rob Bowen to pitch.

http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/

by thejd44 on May 31, 2008 1:20 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Well, some crazy god has murdered half our bullpen.

I think sending Foulke out to pitch the 8th was probably a matter of wanting to avoid using Gaudin or Embree at the expense of their availability today and tomorrow – for example, Gaudin may not be a back-to-back day pitcher at this point and Embree is suddenly needed for games we are tied or ahead, whereas two weeks ago you could certainly trot him out in a game you were down a run.

So it could have been a choice of Foulke, Ziggy, or Braden, with Gaudin and Embree being held for games where we are tied or ahead late – which we hope to have this weekend!

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on May 31, 2008 1:28 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Late question

Since I haven’t had a chance to read game threads or post-game threads this week…

I don’t have a problem with Foulke pitching two innings. I did have a problem with Foulke pitching on Wednesday and Gaudin not pitching two (or three or four) innings. Tie game, Gaudin’s obviously still got multiple innings in him, but Geren sticks with his one-inning-one-pitcher dogma, aka “keep changing pitchers until you find the weak link.” If Foulke had been more effective he’d have wound up giving the ball to DiNardo in the 11th or so, saying “Here, Lenny, it’s yours the rest of the way, however long that is.” I’d rather have Gaudin take the multiple innings than DiNardo (or Braden), and anyway, multiple innings from one guy places less strain on the bullpen than one inning apiece from multiple guys.

I just don’t understand why Gaudin gets relegated to just another one-inning guy; seems like a waste. I’m curious about your take on it as AN’s semi-official resident Thinker on pitcher usage.

by Faust on May 31, 2008 2:23 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

LOL - What I suspect happened is that

Geren simply believed he had a better chance of getting a scoreless 9th inning from Foulke than from Gaudin. Watching him pitch the 8th, I suspect that if Gaudin had worked the 9th he would have given up a run or two, because his fastball command was so-so at best, and he kept hanging his slider.

I’m not saying Geren made the right call, but the bigger reality, to me, is that when your top reliever, and three of your other very best relievers, are unavailable, and you have to choose between your “fifth or sixth righty out of the pen,” you will often look bad.

Probably what he SHOULD have done, IMO, was have Foulke pitch the 8th so that Gaudin could start the 9th and continue for several extra innings if need be. That eliminates DiNardo and Braden, which is a good thing and puts the same guys on the mound in regulation. And of course, in that scenario we would have lost 2-1 on an 8th inning run.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on May 31, 2008 2:33 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I often get the feeling that Geren is caught with his pants down when it comes to the bullpen

And then he needs to do something and he goes “uhhhhhh EMBREE!” and if Embree is unvailable for the day he just goes with the next oldest guy (Foulke, usually).

There doesn’t seem to be much of a pattern, and what pattern I see often doesn’t make a lot of sense. Guys being hurt is only going to make things more frustrating and Foulke and Embree will each throw 7000 pitches over the next month and Ziegler will pitch in 1/3 of an inning in some game where a team has a 9 run lead.

http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/

by thejd44 on May 31, 2008 2:43 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

exactly...

my underutilization theory expounded upon. I’ll believe Geren has some imagination when I see it, but I think this is precisely how it will go for the next few weeks or, at least, Embree or Foulke go down to an overuse injury.

Foolsh, the most insane regular poster on AN since oaktoon left - salb

by FoolshGame22 on May 31, 2008 2:54 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I agree about Foulke in the 8th, Gaudin in the 9th

with the option of continuing with Gaudin if & when extra innings kick in. That addresses my objection that you need to make some provisions for the possibility of extra innings, at least when Bud Selig isn’t on hand to declare a tie.

You know, Gaudin, Street, and Calero all hang their fair share of sliders. At times last year I was convinced that Calero hung an average of about one slider per AB. It’s surprising to me just how often the hanging slider actually works OK as an offspeed pitch – but I suspect that the guys with the better fastballs get away with this a lot more frequently than Calero.

by Faust on May 31, 2008 3:16 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Outstanding analysis

The next set of games are crucial for the team to stay in this race. I really like their chances especially when some of the guys get back from injury.

I believe that if the starting pitching holds up and remains one of the best staffs in the majors then Beane will try and go for the division crown this season. we have enough good minor league prospects so why not go for the crown this year.

All of that being said I believe the next 10 days are crucial for some of the A’s to keep their jobs.

If some of the following guys don’t start hitting then they will be sent down to the minors or to the bench when the injured hitters return (IF THE SWEENEYS AND THOMAS ARE HURT SERIUSLY THEN I THINK BEANE SHOULD MAKE A TRADE FOR A GOOD HITTER).

The guys who I think will be playing for their jobs over the next 10-20 games are:

1- Barton. A team must have better production from the 1b spot. The fact that Hannahan was being sent into the game in the 9th to hit for him was a sure sign that the manager is getting tired of Barton's slump. The injury to Mike Sweeney is a momentary reprieve but I am sure some players could be conveerted to 1B.

2- E. Brown- the OF is already crowded with young prospects. He plays a position corner OF that can be easily replaced. The same could be said for the other corner OF listed below/

3- Buck
4- Cust

The following guys are solid (Ellis, Chavez, Crosby, C.Gonzalez, Suzuki and Hannahan). In part because they play positions that are tough to replace.

EITHER WAY!!! LETS GO A’S!!!

by Yellowhorse on May 31, 2008 11:44 AM PDT   0 recs

It sure is a good thing

that Beane actually believes in Jack Cust. If this organization was run by the fans, the team’s best hitter would have been DFAed months ago.

No, he is not going to be “playing for his job”. They will find a way to put his bat in the lineup.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on May 31, 2008 12:06 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

You do know Cust has been the best offensive player on the A's

not just this year, but last year, too, right?

http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/

by thejd44 on May 31, 2008 1:21 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I don't think anyone wants him DFAed

But calling him the team’s best hitter is a stretch IMO

I just looked up some stats

Bases empty he has a very respectable .288 and a very high OBP of .458 with 36% K’s

RISP .205 with a .386 OBP which is not good at all with 41% K’s

IMO, I would rather have Mike Sweeney, Ryan Sweeney, Frank Thomas and even Emil Brown at the plate in key situations, small sample size or not but Like I said, That’s my opinion and you have yours and we are both entitled to have differing ones.

by Trainman on May 31, 2008 1:06 PM PDT   0 recs

Jack Cust has been the best hitter on the A's in 07-08

You can “rather have” whoever you want, but since it’s not backed up by actual on-field production all it is is an opinion based on a perspective that doesn’t take into account the actual facts. You can have an opinion that the world is flat, too, but that doesn’t make it valid.

http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/

by thejd44 on May 31, 2008 1:22 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

One of Cust's "shortcomings" is not his fault -

a high percentage of his successful ABs are walks, and walks are a lot more productive in the middle of a rally when the next hitter or two are plus-hitters. You would love Cust, as is, in front of David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez, and you would hate him in front of Tony Peña Jr and Neifi Perez.

Because the A’s don’t have great hitters in the middle of the order, the fact that Cust often doesn’t drive in runs but does further rallies (another baserunner) and keep innings going (not making an out) is often not nearly as “productive” as it would be if the A’s had a great hitter or two behind him.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on May 31, 2008 1:34 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

True

Cust is a lot more valuable to the team if he’s hitting ahead of healthy/good Thomas, Chavez, etc.

I still wonder why Geren won’t move him to the 2 spot. I want my best hitter there anyway, and it’s not like he’s going to lose a ton of RBI opportunities because the top and bottom of the order