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Billy Beane Visits Athletics Nation May 2008 Edition Part II

Yesterday you read part I .  Today is part II of Athletics Nation's exclusive interview with A's GM Billy Beane.

Enjoy.

 

Blez:  You brought something up earlier that I want to go back to.  You mentioned how this team is so founded on pitching.  It’s really been the success of this team with first The Big Three and then Haren and Blanton and now this year you have Eveland and Smith added to that mix.  Harden is…(Beane gestures for me to silence myself for fear of the jinx)

Beane:  Yes, he’s doing good.  When he’s out there it’s a beautiful thing. The thing about Rich, when you watch him pitch…

Blez:  Do you hold your breath every time?

Beane:  No, he’s such a great talent and in fairness to him, everyone knows how good he is and what an impact he can have on this team that everyone gets impatient with him as if it’s something he can control.  He knows how good he is.  He really is special.  He’s the one guy in the league when you talk to any GM or any hitter and they’ll tell you that when he’s on, he’s the best in the game.  I look at a guy like Josh Beckett who is still a great package.  He’s got great stuff.  A big imposing presence on the mound, but there are two guys that when they’re on you feel like you have no chance.  Felix (Hernandez), up in Seattle, is the other one that if he’s on and he has it that day, that’s it.  He’s dominating. 

Blez:  Rich seems to be throwing, and this is something I’ve observed, but he seems to be throwing exclusively fastballs and change ups. 

Beane:  He’s been a lot like that the last couple of years which should give you an idea as to how good those two pitches are. 

Blez:  In other words, to be able to go out there and get out major leagues hitters with two pitches exclusively is astounding.

Beane:  Yeah, that being said, those two pitches are pretty remarkable.  (Former Cincinnati Reds pitcher) Mario Soto was a bit like that back in the mid-80s.  He had a dominating fastball and an excellent changeup.

Blez:  Is he sticking with that mostly to try and avoid injury issues? 


Beane:  He’s been like that the last couple of years.  He’s really gotten away from the other stuff.

Blez:  He used to throw a pretty nasty splitter too.

Beane:  Yeah, but his changeup moves so much…

Blez:  That it can behave like a split.

Beane:  Yeah.  You know watching him this last Saturday, you just admire what he does.  It’s just so overwhelming with those two pitches you wonder ,why bother to mess around with anything else?

Blez:  I guess so.  What I was trying to get to earlier was talking about the offense.  The offense is a sore spot with this team.  It’s better this year, but it has those seemingly wild spells, and you and I were chatting about the Angels’ series when they scored something like 14 in one game, zero runs in the next one, one in the following game and then 15 in the final game.  I know you obviously value pitching quite a bit because that was something you pursued in the trades, but is there a point where you think, “I have to do something to improve this offense a little bit because if I can just improve the offense a little bit to complement the fine pitching, then this team is really formidable right now without even really thinking ahead.”


Beane:  I agree, but it’s not very easy.  You think about this last road trip which was a difficult road trip.  But we could’ve easily won every single game.

Blez:  If you’d had a little bit more offense.

Beane:  Yeah, but the reason you’re in that position is because of the pitching.  The fact that you can have a frustration level (and I have it too) is…well, we played three very good teams on the road trip and the fact is that every single one of those games we could’ve won.  That’s why you want to make sure you have a foundation of great pitching and that’s why you want to be careful in taking away from it.  But to get on your point, yeah we have some young players who are just coming into their own.  Ryan Sweeney is just getting his sea legs underneath him.  I mentioned Travis earlier and Daric has gotten off to a slow start, so with some of these younger players you’re just going to have to be patient with them.  You’ve got Eric (Chavez) coming back soon off his injury rehab, which I’m sure you’re aware of.  But Jack (Hannahan) has been great in his absence.  He had a tough start but he’s battled back nicely.  Having Eric out has had a big impact, and hopefully he’ll come back to the level he was in previous years. 

Blez:  Not to belabor this point, but when you decided to pick up Frank Thomas and Daric is struggling a little bit, do you pause for a second and think, maybe he should be given some more time in the minors and he starts to feel more comfortable.  You know that a lot of success in the majors has to do with a guy feeling confident at the plate.  Maybe he then gets more confident in Sacramento while you get to field the best possible team up here by having Mike Sweeney play first, Frank Thomas as DH and Jack Cust in left field.  Have you thought about that possibly being the best option right now for the big club?

Beane:  Playing first base might be difficult for Mike on an everyday basis, so that kind of rules that out.  We’ve always been hesitant to just send guys down once they’ve gotten here when we feel they’re long-term answers.

Blez:  Because it can be deflating psychologically?


Beane:  Yeah and I just don’t like that up and down yo-yo.  We’ve been pretty good about avoiding that over the last 10 years.  It’s not that it hasn’t happened.  I’m not convinced that it’s a good idea.  We’re just not convinced that’s the best option at this point.  Daric’s done a good job defensively.  He’s played good defense and I think I saw somewhere that one of the defensive fielding bibles had him as the best defensive fielding first baseman in the league. 

Blez:  Someone on AN wrote a post about that.


Beane:  Yeah and some of the numbers that we use in-house are really good too.  We think Daric is going to be a great major league hitter and we just have to exercise patience.  If a time comes that we feel that a young player needs to go down to get some more experience, we will.  But in Daric’s case part of becoming a good major league player is being allowed to go through some struggles.  Very few guys come up and hit their whole career.  That’s just part of becoming a major league player.  And then there’s an organizational balance too when maybe you say perhaps sending someone down would be best for the player.  I think in Travis’ case, we felt that was the right thing to do at that time.  We do think he’ll be back soon because we think so highly of him.

Blez:  The minor league system for the A’s is stacked and has gone from mediocre to poor ratings. Now you’re rated near the top by most of the experts.  It also now appears like the major league team is a lot better than people might have suspected.  Did you honestly believe that you could accomplish the goals of remaining very competitive in the AL West while completely rebuilding a barren farm system?


Beane:  The goal was to restock the farm system and the second part, we didn’t really know.  I wasn’t convinced that we were going to be a terrible team, which is what some people thought.  I wasn’t also ready to run up a hill and say we were going to be the best team in the league either.  We weren’t really sure.  There were a lot of what ifs there that didn’t really allow us to get a gauge on where we were.  I was looking forward to rebuilding this thing and making it really good for a long time, but it makes it a lot more pleasurable when you’re winning at the major league level.  So you find yourself getting used to winning after a while and then when you lose a few games in a row, you have to remind yourself that you have a young team.  Then you have to stop and appreciate where you’re at and what you’ve accomplished and be pretty happy.

Blez:  Part of that improved minor league system is Henry Rodriguez, someone you wouldn’t have found in years past.  But because you’ve added revenue to the Latin American scouting program, Rodriguez turned into a gem you were able to unearth.   Is that an area of great market opportunity for you to exploit moving forward?

Beane:  I don’t know that you can exploit it anymore.  It isn’t like it’s any great secret. The fact of the matter is is that 15 to 20 years ago we had a lot of success down there.  We kind of coat-tailed the first big clubs going in there, like the Dodgers, Blue Jays and they were the best at it.  We kind of followed them and had a nice little run signing a lot of guys.  It didn’t cost us a lot of money.  What ended up happening was that the cost of doing business there ended up going up significantly.  We tried to do business the way we used to do it and we spent less than anyone down there and it just wasn’t going to work any more.  In international signings over the last decade, we were last in all of baseball.  We thought that the way we did business before was going to work and it just didn’t.  And the proof was showing up at the major league level because Casilla was really the only one we got out of there in the last decade.  If we were going to go down there and have an academy and get something out of it, and the fact is you need to get something out of there because 30 percent of major league players are coming from there, then we needed to go in there like everyone else.  We started in the fall.  We’ve now signed a number of players out of there since the fall, out of Venezuela, the Dominican (Republic) and a kid from Mexico named (Arnold) Leon who has been excellent.  We just missed on signing a great kid out of Australia.  And the reason I recently went down to the Dominican was that we had a huge try out camp and I was seeing a bunch of kids from there.  It’s an area of focus, we’ve gotten off to a good start and we’re going to continue to be aggressive down there.

Blez:  How excited are you about Rodriguez?  Peter Gammons wrote during spring training that a few of the scouts he talked to said that he had one of the best arms they’ve seen in a while.  He’s struggled a bit since being promoted to Double-A.

Beane:  We were hesitant to move him up because he is so young but we felt like even during the earliest times of the season that he was so dominant that we had to consider it.  He’s actually getting better and learning some things.  We hesitated sending a 21-year-old up there, but people in the organization felt like it was best that he go up there and start learning some of the things he need to learn like throwing his offspeed pitches a little more.  We had almost needed to clear the Stockton team out because we had some kids in Kane County who needed to be up there like (Trevor) Cahill and (Brett) Anderson.  We thought it was good to create some mobility for those guys coming through.  Rodriguez has had a few ugly lines, but some of them have been deceiving.  We usually get pretty detailed reports and even though he hasn’t dominated there he’s still striking guys out which is usually a good indicator of future success.

Blez:  In general, the scouting budget has been increased.  Some of the old-school baseball minds might call this a bit of “backpedaling” from the philosophy Michael Lewis outlined in Moneyball.  The A’s were trying to get by on the shoestring budget.

Beane:  I don’t know that Michael necessarily wrote about that when it came to the draft.  We did spend a lot less in terms of the draft and there were a lot of dynamics in play there.

Blez:  What I’m saying is that, rightly or wrongly, Moneyball is always sort of seen as the scouts versus computer geeks lightning rod.  I don’t think that’s the best way to represent the book, but for better or worse, it seems to have taken on that popular view. 

Beane:  When was Moneyball published?  What 2002, so that’s six years ago now and we’re still talking about it?  I usually let Michael and others define what they thought what the book was about.  The bottom line is that I don’t there was anywhere in the book where we sat down and gave a manifesto on how to do things so I think that’s the most misinterpreted thing.  But as far as how we do business in the draft, the more you do this job, and this can apply to almost any business job, the more you realize you don’t know.  The idea that you are going to create a template that is going to work forever in a very competitive business just doesn’t happen.  Are there some things we still believe in?  Absolutely.  There are also some things where we say, “Maybe we need to take a look at this.”  But that’s the evolution of any business if you’re going to stay on top and try and be successful.  I’m glad we’re like that.  Maybe seven, eight, nine years ago I wouldn’t have been so much like that.  Successes and failures are things you can learn from.  For us, we’re constantly trying to evolve.  Just because we do something different that we didn’t necessarily do a previous year doesn’t mean it’s something we don’t believe in.  Someone will inevitably say that’s blasphemy compared to how we used to do business.  We’re constantly checking ourselves.  And the business is changing.  The people running teams now, in my opinion, are as good as they ever have been.  There are some really smart guys running businesses.  It’s incredibly competitive and the idea that you’re going to have an “intellectual edge” anymore is, and I not sure that there ever was, but I’m not sure it exists any more.  I can tell you the guys running teams now have some really, really smart guys working for them.  You’re not going to outsmart too many people.  We all have the same information available to us.

Blez:  Is (the influx of young talent in front offices) the result of Moneyball?

Beane:  No, you know what I think it’s a result of, is that it’s a result of being big business so the people who are really successful buy baseball teams.  Very smart people buy baseball teams and they expect results so the more money pumped into the business, the better people are going to be attracted to it. 

Blez:  You’ve taken a lot of steps to change the organizational processes in relation to keeping players healthier.  Yet injury problems already cropped up again a little bit with Duke and Harden, Chavez, Denorfia, Ellis, Buck and even Mike Sweeney.  Granted many of these guys have injury histories, but do you think that you have possibly turned the corner with the injury issues with some of the changes you have made?

Beane:  One of the things I’ve noticed with the injuries is that you really, really notice them when you don’t have depth.  We all get anxious, including fans, when you’re waiting for a player to come back, but when you can bring up a Greg Smith to replace Rich in the rotation and he pitches the way he does it allows you to go through the due process of a guy who is injured normally so you aren’t pushing them out there too early.  It becomes a vicious cycle if you don’t have depth.  You get a guy hurt and you push him back early and he might get hurt again and be out for a longer period of time.  The process is more than just being about looking at the team doctors and how you do things. That’s certainly part of it, but our responsibility on the baseball side is providing enough depth in understanding that you’re playing a sport where you’re going to have injuries.  If they are injured then we give our guys the proper time they need to heal and don’t expect them to play half way through the injury, then expect them to be healthy.  The less depth we had, if you noticed, the more injuries we started to have because we kept pushing those guys out there.  To some extent, like Eric (Chavez), who busted his rear end to get out there in time for spring training.  We all said, we really want him out there and need him out there and then we took a step back and said, wait a second let’s do this the right way.  He’s almost there now and has had a very detailed program since the end of spring training.  He’s out playing in games right now.  But the fact that Jack has performed so admirably up here allows that process to happen.  I think that part of our medical problem has been not having the depth in the organization that we probably should’ve had and each year it got tougher and tougher.  I am happy with the new process though.  Soup (Head Trainer Steve Sayles) has done a phenomenal job.  Meanwhile, Steve commands a lot of respect as a trainer because he has a great presence.  He’s conservative by nature.  Our rehabs are longer but he’s also had the advantage of having depth.  He’s very conservative.  If I’m thinking something is going to be 2-3 days, he’ll probably say it should be 7-8.  That’s just the way he is. 

Blez:  And perhaps that will help the guys stay on the field longer too once they get back.

Beane:  Yeah, exactly.  He’s definitely showed great leadership since we hired him which is something I think we all expected.

Blez:  There is going to be a roster crunch coming.  Especially with Chavez coming back and you mentioned that you want to get Buck back in there.  I know you can’t really say what you’re going to do with all the extra players and the first base, DH and left field shuffle, but how much does a win-now mentality affect that decision compared to giving those young players a chance to develop and mature?

Beane:  It’s one of those questions that I say that you’ll probably have to check with me at the time.  The press is always asking those questions…you know, what are you going to do in two weeks when this happens?  Well, when we get to two weeks we’ll let you know.  Inevitably something always seems to happen in between.  Not to avoid your question because those are all fair points, but I think it will be something we’ll be better equipped to answer when the time comes.  Right now it’s just too early to speculate.

Blez:  Speaking of the upcoming roster crunch, what did you like about Rajai Davis so much to go ahead and pick him up?

Beane:  He’s got unique speed.  It’s hard to find that kind of speed you can pick up for $20,000.  He’s right handed and one guy we’ve never had is someone to come in in the seventh inning to pinch run and steal a base.  He’s actually handled left handers well in the past and we thought he was a great complement and dimension that we didn’t have.  We felt like he was too good of an athlete to pass up for the cost.

Blez:  How close did you come at the beginning of the season to keeping both of the Gonzalezes (Gio and Carlos) with the big club coming out of camp?

Beane:  They’re both so very young.  They’re both only 22 years old.  So we had pretty much made up our mind up that they would need some time down in the minors.  And then when Carlos had the hamstring injury, it kind of impacted it in that it wasn’t as though we couldn’t have had that conversation in the spring.  We would’ve liked to have taken Carlos to Japan for the exhibition games but it would’ve taken quite a bit for us to break camp with them.  They’re still both very, very young even for the level they’re at now, which is Triple-A.

Blez:  Did the number of years you could have them under contract control factor into the decision?  I believe some media sources out there reported that some veterans on the team, and they were unnamed sources I believe, wanted Carlos to remain on the club. 

Beane:  That means they might not have been here then (laughs).  But no, that’s not the case at all.  Spring training is not a good judge.  I think I hit .400 one year in the Cactus League which will tell you it doesn’t mean a whole lot.  That happens every year.  I remember one year the veterans wanted to keep Mark Mulder.  He promptly went out and had like a 5.00 ERA in Triple-A that year.  Just because you have a good spring training doesn’t mean you’re ready for the big leagues.  I think in both of those kids (Carlos and Gio) they’re still both cutting their teeth at Triple-A.  Carlos got off to a good start and then went through a little lull and now he’s back over .300.  And Gio has had some great games, but he’s also had games in which he’s struggled.  They still need some time.

Blez:  The pitching staff down in Stockton and Kane County seem to almost unfairly loaded with pitchers like James Simmons, Cahill, Anderson and de los Santos.  I know you don’t like to make predictions about what players are going to be but do you think that we’re going to see some true major league aces come out of this crop of talent?

Beane:  (without hesitation and emphatically) Yes. 

Blez:  And when I say aces I mean, number one starter ability.


Beane:  Number twos do everything the number one does, but the number one is the guy.  It’s like when Stew (Dave Stewart) was here.  We had Mike Moore and Dave Stewart and when you look at them it was hard to say who was actually better on the mound but Stew was number one and Mike was number two because of the presence factor and the cache.  The number one label is based on presence.  I’ll say this, there are a lot of guys down there who have the ability to be good number twos and threes.  But we’ll just see if they have the cult of personality there after a couple of years. 

Blez:  How much research do you on the personality when it comes to trying to decide if they might evolve into that type of guy?

Beane:  Personality may be the wrong word.  It’s more like a swagger.  (Tim) Hudson had it when he was here. 

Blez:  Would you have called him the number one out of the Big Three?


Beane:  When he came up, Tim seemed like this nice quiet kid from the south, but then after a few years in a major league clubhouse he became a very self confident guy.  The way a GM knows a kid versus the way a kid really is takes a few years.  And in order to be a number one, you have to develop a track record too.


Blez:  I often ask you this question when we get together, but since the minor league clubs have changed so much since we last got together, I’m interested to hear what you think now.  Tell me about some unheralded gem in the A’s system that the fans might want to keep a close eye on.

Beane:  Yes, you do always ask me that (laughs).  There is nothing win-win for me in this one because I’ll inevitably have to single someone out which means excluding a number of others.  How do I answer that?

Blez:  In the past, you’ve given me names.  Sulentic was someone you gave me one year.

Beane:  David (Forst) actually saw him in high school and I can remember when he saw him in high school.  I’m going to take the fifth because there’s a lot of guys.

Blez:  Is it because the system is stacked so it’s harder to choose someone?

Beane:  I’m trying to do the proper thing in a leadership role.  You know what, Aaron Cunningham has come back and he wasn’t one of the heralded guys in the Haren deal but he’s a guy that we like quite a bit.  He’s a right-handed bat, plays all three outfield positions and he had a real good start to camp.  Then he broke his hand and just got back.  It’s fun seeing him and he’s played pretty well since he got back.

Blez:  I assumed if I kept you talking long enough you’d give me someone.

Beane:  Probably (laughs).

 

Coming tomorrow:  The final part of the interview.  Beane discusses the Jack Cust phenomenon of striking out, walking or hitting homers, Bobby Crosby's improvements this season and whether or not Beane believes in clutch hitting.

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Great Stuff Blez

I know you can’t just ask him “Are you gonna trade harden/Blanton/Street?”—well, you can, but he won’t answer of course.

But I do hope you at least touch on his views on buying and selling this year. In the past he has said you can do both—1999 is the best example of that. But it’s interesting to me that he said in Volume 1 “we’re more than halfway there”, because of the pitching. So does the final less than half come from a) the draft; b) trading for prospects or c) trading of prospects, or d) all of the above??

But it’s a good read and always intriguing to see BB’s mind at work. Moneyball was published in 2003, by the way, though most of the events depicted (KC game, Mr. “Swing at Everything”, the infamous draft) took place in 2002. So we are 5 years down the road from the book you “wrote”, Billy.

by madmongoose on May 27, 2008 7:37 AM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

check out my DLD from two weeks ago!

why are we pimping random unrelated fanposts in here?

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on May 27, 2008 8:21 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I have no response to that.

"He's a misfit. He gets along with everyone." - Reggie Jackson, describing Joe Rudi

by McFood on May 28, 2008 6:59 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The first thing that jumped out at me...

is the fact that Daric Barton is not even close to being the best defensive first baseman in this league. Hopefully he’ll get there someday. Other than that Beane part 2 was another interesting read.

by jdub69 on May 27, 2008 9:46 AM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Maybe so but here are the numbers

courtesy of Hardball Times—

RZR—refined zone rating, essentially measuring the percentage of balls hit into a fielder’s zone that are converted to outs—Barton is a clear 1st, followed by Kotchmann

OOZ—out of Zone—how many outs a given fielder converts on balls that are not within his “strict” zone—Barton is 3rd—basically in a 4 person cluster with Sexson, Pena and Overbay trailing Kotchmann.

I have no idea how either rating factors in the “scoop” or our generous foul territory.

But suffice to say that unless there is somehuge aberration or quirk in the data, barton clearly belongs in the discussion in terms of best defensive 1B man in the AL.

by madmongoose on May 27, 2008 9:57 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

This is one case where statistics clearly don't work.

If you’ve watched Barton’s defense this year common sense tells you that he’s not even a great defensive first baseman – let alone the best in the league. Not even the best on the team. Mike Sweeney has been better defensively.

by jdub69 on May 27, 2008 10:04 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

OK-- now we're into the limited view syndrome

If—and this is a big if—you have watched every inning of every game that barton has played, that means you have seen most other Al 1Bmen—what??—3 games? Or none in a couple of cases?

He may very well not be a “great” defensive 1Bman—but “let alone the best in the league” could easily be a non sequitur. I.e, there are no great defensive 1Bmen (Richie Sexson? Lyle Overbay? Jason Giambi????) in the American League. My own view is that Kotchmann probably is superior but what do i really know? I’ve seen him play maybe 6-8 times at most.

Bottom line is that you or anyone can’t say with any credibility that “this is one case where statistics clearly don’t work”.

by madmongoose on May 27, 2008 10:10 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Middle of Pack or Lower on One-- Potentially High on the other

He is clearly below Barton on the RZR—which is a % figure. On the OOZ (out of zone), which is cumulative, if you extrapolate given his small playing time, he would be similar to Barton.

Now to be fair it’s a small sample size.

But the other nuance is positioning. we don’t know—and the statistics have a much better chance than us of sorting it out—which fielder makes more playes because they are better-positioned—they may not look spectacular but they are getting to more balls.

by madmongoose on May 27, 2008 10:33 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

what about Youkilis, the gold glover?

what about Peña in Tampa Bay? That’s just naming two…

by OaklandSi on May 27, 2008 3:13 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Interesting.

In cases where the stats disagree with your common sense, they are obviously wrong. How do I know when they are right?

The numbers aren’t everything, especially when it comes to defense, but you can’t make a statement like that with absolutely zero proof – no observations, no anecdote, no scouting – to back it up. So, unless you feel like proving otherwise, you’re full of poop.

stat-addled alien overlord

by salb918 on May 27, 2008 10:11 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

stats show your poop-related comments are up like 600%

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on May 27, 2008 10:14 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

salb918: 23 comments with the word "poop" in it.

xbx: 6
monkeyball: 29

Can that be right?

stat-addled alien overlord

by salb918 on May 27, 2008 10:19 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

not surprising, monkeys poop even more than babies

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on May 27, 2008 10:51 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

and just wait until we start getting the monkey-baby stats

Just look at me. How can you not quake in my presence? @('.')@

by monkeyball on May 27, 2008 12:42 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Could the Coliseum be skewing the OOZ rating?

I wonder if the Coliseum’s expansive foul territory skews the OOZ rating in Barton’s favor—perhaps combined with Emil Brown’s lack of speed allowing Barton to get to a lot of “extra” balls.

On the RZR, I wonder if Ellis’s outstanding range allows Barton to play closer to the line, thus leading to very few doubles hit to Barton’s left.

by branch rickey on May 27, 2008 11:38 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Too lazy to look

for first basepeople does that include put out on a throw? Cuz this weekend the Gold Glover looked really bad at short hops.

by Future Ed on May 27, 2008 11:50 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The difference between a blog and a newspaper

Tell me about some unheralded gem in the A’s system that the fans might want to keep a close eye on.

Blog: “There is nothing win-win for me in this one because I’ll inevitably have to single someone out which means excluding a number of others. How do I answer that?...I’m going to take the fifth because there’s a lot of guys.” – Billy Beane

Newspaper: “A’s GM DOESN’T KNOW NAMES OF PROSPECTS”

Great interview Blez, looking forward to part 3!

Will there ever be a boy born who can swim faster than a shark?

by JLeverenz on May 27, 2008 10:45 AM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

He should have taken the "Joe Morgan 5th".

“I haven’t been to a lot of minor league games this year, so I haven’t seen a lot of these guys play. I can’t really give you any specifics. There aren’t really any great players out there anymore.”

"I'm going to take a camera crew and march into Billy Beane's office and demand to know why instituting his newfangled cost-saving measures means that the run manufacturing plant had to get shut down." FJM

by Elvez on May 27, 2008 12:19 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

This is really important

We tried to do business the way we used to do it and we spent less than anyone down there and it just wasn’t going to work any more. In international signings over the last decade, we were last in all of baseball. We thought that the way we did business before was going to work and it just didn’t. And the proof was showing up at the major league level because Casilla was really the only one we got out of there in the last decade.

Take note of this paragraph. This is what separates Beane, not only from other GMs, but from the vast majority of other businesspeople of all stripes. He is actually willing to reexamine his processes, figure out which ones stink, and change them.

This doesn’t sound like a big deal, but it’s stunning how often businesses simply refuse to consider the notion that their failures are fixable. Ego is not the issue—Beane has as big an ego as anyone in baseball. The difference is that he understands that everyone screws up pretty often in this business, and so he knows that he’s doing a generally good job even when a draft pick goes south or a trade turns into a disaster. His ego is not “I make no mistakes,” it’s “I make lots of mistakes—but you make more,” which is both true and much more conducive to flexible thinking.

The contrast with someone like Bill Bavasi—his screed about the Mariners was ripped a new one, in one of the most biting pieces of critical writing I’ve seen in a long time, here—could not be more evident.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on May 27, 2008 10:50 AM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

+1

and not just that paragraph, also the parts about moneyball and injuries.

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on May 27, 2008 10:58 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You Have Hit The Nail On The Head

Very insightful comment…most people become bad parodies of themselves as they get older. BB IS constantly examining and re-examining the paradigm. It would be easy for him, given what he has accomplished (yes, he and the A’s organization have accomplished a great deal despite the lack of a World Series trophy), to rest on his laurels. His competitive nature. however, manifests itself by constantly striving to improve, something so many of our business and political leaders fail to do.

by LogicRules on May 27, 2008 11:45 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

In a way

that was one of the biggest things you can actually take out of moneyball too. It wasn’t so much this is a better way, as it was, this isn’t working, let’s see if we can find a way that works better. Now, 5/6 years later, he’s still in that same mindset. It’s better than it was before, but not perfect, let’s see if we can improve it.

In search of a new signature. Say something funny and you may see your comment here!

by DMOAS on May 27, 2008 12:02 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

That's exactly my point

whenever someone comes at me criticizing AN for just thinking blindly that Beane makes no mistakes. It isn’t that he doesn’t make mistakes, it’s just that he often winds up covering up for those mistakes by making better moves than most to make up for them. AND he makes less than most GMs. I don’t think Beane is perfect and he’ll be the first to say that he isn’t, but he’s generally just really intelligent about how he does his job even when he bungles something.

by Blez on May 27, 2008 12:05 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It does seem that Billy is constantly in motion....

it’s much harder to hit a moving target. Especially one that takes an occasional shot back.

"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer

by alox on May 27, 2008 12:07 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Why contract him with someone like Bavasi?

If you claim that this quote, this willingness to learn from his mistakes is what separates him from other GMs, then you should contrast him with not the poor GMs, but the good ones, the best.

What indication is there that John Schuerholtz, to use an example, was the type who was never willing to learn from his mistakes, to change strategy?

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on May 27, 2008 10:19 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Contrast

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on May 27, 2008 10:20 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Huh?

Where did I say that he was the only one who was competent?

Schierholtz learned from his mistakes too… one assumes, at least, since he was far better in his second gig with Atlanta than he was with Kansas City the first time around.

If flexibility is a lot of what makes a guy a good GM, then you would expect the best—a Schierholtz, a Bill Veeck, a Branch Rickey, to have a lot of it. And as far as I can tell, they did.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on May 27, 2008 10:44 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Barton's defense

I’ve always wondered about this when I look at defensive metrics like RZR (revised zone rating), especially in regards to players on the A’s:

Is it possible for those metrics to screen for the fact that the team’s coaches are often positioning the players on the field? Honest question, I really don’t know enough about them.

Anecdotally, I think that the A’s do as good a job as any team in the league at positioning their defenders for each individual hitter. (This would make sense – the A’s do research and stat analysis as well as anyone, and positioning a defense is all about analysis of data). But perhaps this also slightly artificially inflates the defensive numbers of each of their guys.

In other words, Barton and other A’s could appear to be better defenders than they actually are, relative to the rest of the league, if the A’s do a better job of positioning people than the rest of the league does.

I bring that up only because, to the naked eye, Barton doesn’t look like a great defensive first baseman to me.

"Let’s just hope he’s not a complete turd out there." -thejd44, describing Crosby's best scenario.

by notsellingjeans on May 27, 2008 11:45 AM PDT reply reply actions actions   1 recs

I think Positioning is the great unknown in the sport

Jeter, for example, can’t simply be bad because he can’t get to balls—there must be something else going on that keeps him below most other SS’s every year.

But just as I think that a catcher’s “handling/calling” of a game is overrated, i think the positioning decisions—or even the fielder’s movements once they know what Pitch has been called—are greatly underappreciated.

by madmongoose on May 27, 2008 11:49 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

People are expecting "Hit F/X" (the hitting version of Pitch F/X)

to be the next big thing in hitter analysis. People will be able to measure force imparted to balls, velocity off the bat, and both vertical and horizontal launch angles. The latter should revolutionize our understanding of defensive positioning.

It would not surprise me in the slightest if the A’s already have a version of this that they use to figure out optimal defensive positioning for a given hitter.

That’s still a few years off for us, though. For now, we’re stuck with conjecture. So to answer your question… nope, we can’t tell if it’s the player or the infield coach. What appears to be “range” may well be a function of where a guy sets up.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on May 27, 2008 12:15 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I think that's

probably negligible in the IF, especially the corners, where most teams basically do the same thing, and much more important in the OF where there is greater positioning variation. Just a guess.

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on May 27, 2008 12:24 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

do they??

Position their IF the same? I’m truly uncertain about this. Mike Schmidt built one of the most impressive fielding resumes for any 3rd baseman in ML history because he thought that most players at this position guarded the line too much, including in late-inning situations. Is there a variation because of the pitch and location tendencies of a given pitching staff? what about holding the runner on 1st> if you come from an organization that is less enamored with the SB (anyone come to mind??) maybe the converse is also true—you don’t worry about holding guys as much—that extra step or two back or to his right could be a big difference in Barton’s numbers.

by madmongoose on May 27, 2008 12:43 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

As I said, just a guess

those things you mention play a role. How large, I don’t know.

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on May 27, 2008 12:56 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

What I wonder is how much Ellis helps Barton's #'s

Early on, Barton was messing up by showing too much range and getting in Ellis’ way – but now that Barton has figured out how good Ellis is, he is able to focus on a smaller area and cover it better.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on May 27, 2008 3:57 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I asked Geren about defensive positioning

in Blez’ “Ask the Manager” AN Q and A session last year. He confirmed that the staff meets at the beginning of each series to discuss hitter tendencies and proper defensive positioning for each hitter that they’ll face, including against specific pitchers.
He at least implied that the A’s employ at least a slight defensive shift (my words: we could be talking 2 feet, but still relevant) – position by position – for each hitter they face.

But again, I doubt any of us would be surprised if this is something the A’s take a little more seriously than other teams. I’ll bet we’ve all seen A’s assistant coaches flipping through huge binders in the dugout before.

"Let’s just hope he’s not a complete turd out there." -thejd44, describing Crosby's best scenario.

by notsellingjeans on May 27, 2008 9:01 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Defense VS. Offense

I bring that up only because, to the naked eye, Barton doesn’t look like a great defensive first baseman to me.

For whatever reason, it’s a lot more diffucult for most of us fans to accept the validity of defensive statistics. If the numbers show Barton is turning batted balls into outs more frequently than his peers, we’re inclined to say, “The numbers lie. He looks awkward out there.” But if he’s hitting .300/.400/.500 (BA/OBP/SLG), we don’t say, “Yeah, but he’s not very smoothe at the plate. It’s a statistical mirage.” We say, “The numbers don’t lie. He’s hitting the snot out of the ball.”

by Monday Fan on May 27, 2008 1:07 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The reason why

is because they aren’t as valid as hitting statistics. It takes far longer to amass a meaningful sample size for defense (about 3 years) than for OBP (maybe half a year) or power (a couple of months).

Barton’s fielding statistics at this point are from about 2 months of play. That’s like making a judgment about a player’s OBP based on a “hot streak” of a week and a half. Is it a promising start? Sure, but it’s a small sample size, too.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on May 27, 2008 1:18 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Correct.

One must say, “Barton has been the best fielding 1B this year according to RZR” not “Barton is the best fielding 1B according to RZR”.

stat-addled alien overlord

by salb918 on May 27, 2008 1:46 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I think it's much deeper than that

Even if the samples are robust, I think most people are inclined to trust their eyes more than statistics when it comes to fielding. Unorthodox technique at the plate is overlooked when the results are good. A player who doesn’t appear nimble in the field is suspect no matter how good the end results may be. On the other side of the coin, a smoothe looking fielder is praised no matter how poor his numbers may be. A hitter who struggles with strikeouts and popups for an extended period is in a slump and he’ll come out of it when finds his stroke. A fielder who gets a case of fumble-thumbs or scatter-arm isn’t going through a slump. He’s just a bad fielder.

by Monday Fan on May 27, 2008 5:57 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The thing is,

if a guy blows 4 at-bats in a row, no one thinks anything of it, because it happens all the time. Hitters only succeed in about 1/3 of their plate appearances.

Fielders are expected to convert, depending on the position, anywhere from 75 to 90 percent of the balls that are hit “to” them. So perhaps that explains the lack of patience or understanding on the part of fans when a guy makes a couple of misplays.

That being said, it’s pretty obvious why fans balk at fielding stats but not batting stats. It is because it is accepted conventional wisdom that hitting stats (particularly BA, RBI and HR) are useful (even though those stats kind of aren’t) and it is not accepted conventional wisdom that fielding stats are useful. The reason isn’t hard to suss out. People follow the herd mentality. It’s acceptable to talk about batting average, so people talk about batting average. It’s not acceptable to talk about RZR, so people dismiss it as useless and then invent post facto rationalizations to justify doing so.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on May 27, 2008 6:08 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yeah, I'll admit to my bias there

I don’t think anything of player who has a negative at-bat, because I expect guys to make outs at the plate.

But when I watch a game like I did over the weekend, where Hannahan throws Barton a ball that didn’t even bounce but simply went under Barton’s glove near the ground, and Hannahan gets charged with the error, I cringe, because I think to myself, “A major league first baseman makes that play. A major league first baseman instinctively prioritizes catching the ball over the extra 2 inches of stretching toward the ball.”

There have been a few plays this year where a fielder has made a less-than-perfect throw to Barton, but you still expect a major league first baseman to come up with those kind of throws.

I don’t think you were directing your statement at me specifically Paul, but for what it’s worth I do value new-age defensive stats like RZR…I’m just curious what we don’t fully know about what they reveal.

For example, part of why I always use OPS in my posts about offense, even though it’s far from a perfect metric, is that we all pretty much know OPS’ limitations as a statistic. It tells us something valuable, we all know what it tells us, and we know what it doesn’t.

Correct me if I’m wrong, but I don’t think we’re quite there with RZR. We know that it tells us some good stuff, but I don’t think we know what it doesn’t tell us yet (since we can’t separate the coach positioning players from the players’ own actions).

So I guess I’m saying that I think it’s fair for a good studious fan to have a little more timidity(?) with RZR. I don’t think that’s a bad thing.

"Let’s just hope he’s not a complete turd out there." -thejd44, describing Crosby's best scenario.

by notsellingjeans on May 27, 2008 8:54 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Thing to keep in mind

The PBP metrics basically compare a player to other players around the league, not some imaginary ideal of a MLB player. If everyone is bad, a guy who is merely average would rate as one of the best. One eyed man in the land of the blind, and all that.

And as mikeA has posted below, it’s not just RZR that rates Barton highly. It’s RZR and Zone Rating. And the highly regarded plus minus.

Yes, we can’t separate the coach positioning the player’s actions, from the player’s own actions. Similarly, we can’t separate the player’s own positioning ability from his athletic ability. The systems are not designed to do that. Just like say, OPS, they measure results. Not how the results were achieved. The metrics are not analogous to BABIP, or HR / F rate. A raw OPS number doesn’t tell you how the player achieved that number, whether his BABIP is sustainable or not. Does that prevent people from using it?

Note, I’m not saying the metrics are flawless.

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on May 27, 2008 10:15 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I''m really curious

as to which “one of the defensive fielding bibles had him (Barton) as the best defensive fielding first baseman in the league”

by OaklandSi on May 27, 2008 11:50 AM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

As I noted

He’s just barely behind Kotchmann in Hardball Times stuff—at the time when Blez talked to BB, he may have been first there.

by madmongoose on May 27, 2008 12:00 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

He was first at that time

And I think most people made jokes about it.

by Blez on May 27, 2008 12:03 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

unfairly so

He ain’t Keith Hernandez—but he ain’t Jason Giambi or Dick Stuart either.

by madmongoose on May 27, 2008 12:13 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

He's still ahead by RZR/OOZ

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on May 27, 2008 12:18 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Youkilis is almost certainly better

and will likely be ahead of Barton in terms of these numbers at the end of the year. Kotchman is also almost certainly better. Pena seems to be about average. Also, the NL has much better fielding 1Bmen.

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on May 27, 2008 3:35 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

"The Fielding Bible"

http://actasports.com/sow.php?id=169

I certainly don’t think he’s the best, but I’m surprised people are so down on his defense. He has excellent range. He’s impressed me a great deal fielding ground balls, and sketchy but adequate catching throws from the infielders.
It’s also worth remembering that there are a whole lot of bad fielding first basemen.

But… of course it’s a small sample/doesn’t count catching throws/possibly gives him credit for the Coli foul territory(don’t know if it does), so these numbers don’t mean a ton.

I think it’s crazy to think he’s below average, though, when most 1Bmen are very unquick and lumbering.

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on May 27, 2008 12:17 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Also,

ZR, which uses diffferent data from the fielding bible and RZR (which use the same data), also has him first in the AL. Same caveats apply.

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on May 27, 2008 12:22 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Great interview, Blez

Looking forward to part three.

One thing you almost touched on, and I”d forgotten it until I read this interview: Back when I spoke with Michael Lewis, a year and a half ago, he mentioned that one thing Major League clubs do not do, and the A’s might have been looking at, is actually rating scouts to see how successful they actually are in their predictive ability. Meaning that a scout might rave about finding this hidden gem or that hidden gem, but over all, there had been no real way of checking on a scout’s actual acumen. That scouting itself had fallen behind the curve.

When you think about that, you realize that one way the A’s MIGHT have gotten an edge in the past couple of years —which is why the trades have been so good and why the newer prospects have been so good -- is that the A’s might have been working with some new sort of scouting metrics in terms of actually rating scouts and picking up good ones that don’t necessarily have flashy discoveries in their resumes.

by richwol1 on May 27, 2008 12:03 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Scouting the Scouts now are we?

Joe Morgan does not approve.

"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer

by alox on May 27, 2008 12:05 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I never metascout I didn't like...

"God doesn't pay attention to your cute little hypotheticals." -- Jeff from LL

by oblique on May 27, 2008 12:57 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   1 recs

Brilliant.

pam5981: Patience is a virtue that I do not possess.
ohtobe21likehuston: But you're good at drinking and cussing. Two out of three ain't bad.

by pam5981 on May 27, 2008 4:36 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

QOTM

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on May 27, 2008 10:15 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The trades...

still show a statistical emphasis more than a scouting one.

All the guys Beane acquired had stats he liked. Regardless of level (A/AA/AAA), pitchers with great K to walk ratios, and hitters who had performed admirably statistically relative to their age and level.

He didn’t acquire one guy who qualified as an Evan Meek, “bad stats but the scouts see potential in him” type of player.

All nine acquisitions in the two trades had done something relevant statistically in the minor leagues.

"Let’s just hope he’s not a complete turd out there." -thejd44, describing Crosby's best scenario.

by notsellingjeans on May 27, 2008 9:07 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Poorly phrased

Sorry. Scouting was obviously relevant too, just as you said. I just meant to say that statistical analysis is still clearly playing a heavy role in the acquisition of players via trade, too.

"Let’s just hope he’s not a complete turd out there." -thejd44, describing Crosby's best scenario.

by notsellingjeans on May 27, 2008 9:09 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Really looking forward to

the question about clutch hitting. Perfect example of something interesting to ask Beane about which he actually might answer.

Everyone can think of a bunch of interesting questions that Beane obviously is going to dodge and not answer—he’s not going to give away any secrets that will help other teams, or rip on one of his own guys, or break any confidences.

The trick is to find interesting questions that he really will answer. And props to Blez for doing such a great job at that.

formerly known as mdl

by iglew on May 27, 2008 2:45 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

This is good stuff

Loved the Beane non-answer on Harden’s repertoire. Blez gives him two or three variants on: “So, only two pitches now, eh?” and each time Billy deflects with how awesome the pitches are, and how that’s Rich’s trend, unwilling to say (by conscious decision, if I read by Beane leaves right) whether it’s a response to Harden’s injury risks. That’s presumably with a healthy eye towards the trading deadline.

Excellent interview.


Re: “an area of great market (Latin American) opportunity for you to exploit:”

In the role he was born to play, Billy Beane IS William Walker!

There is an A in Whimsy.

by FreeSeatUpgrade on May 27, 2008 7:55 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Eh

It’s pretty questionable whether he even needs the split, given that his changeup essentially has splitter action on it.

FWIW fangraphs thinks he’s still throwing splitters… though it could just be mis-classified changeups.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on May 27, 2008 10:57 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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