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Rays or A's-- Who Has the Brighter Future??

And let's see if the devil is to be found in the details-- for certainly the Tampa squad "exorcising" their right to be free of that assocation has paid off big time.

But seriously-- these are the two big stories-- positive, that is-- of the AL this year. And to be utterly fair and without any coastal bias, the blazing hot Rays are the better story of the two.

I will try to do this fairly broad-brush, honing in on a few key areas but not analyzing every single player in depth.

Pitching

Well they have an ace who seems to be more healthy than ours-- though he too has missed much of this season. But Steve Phillips must still shudder to think that the talent of Kazmir (dah-dah-dah...dah-dah-dah-- can't write that name without thinking of Jimmy and the boys playing one of the great riffs in music history) was exchanged for the fleeting talent of Victor, not Carlos, Zambrano. EDGE TO RAYS

The rest of their rotation consists of another potential stud-- Matt Garza, who i believe arrived via the Delmon Young (don't flip your bat at me!) deal. Garza is one of those top notch pitching prospects who sometimes take a while to gain command-- or sometimes never find it at all. He is joined by former Dodger uberprospect Edwin Jackson (it is amazing how many once highly-touted top prospects the Rays have collected), their own reclamation project in James shields and also Andy Sonnestine from their own system. I don't think the depth is as strong as our rotation, but the talent is clearly there. SLIGHT EDGE TO A'S GOING FORWARD-- but these guys are young too and it wouldn;t shock me to see their batch outperform our batch in the next couple of seasons.

The bullpen is, like many inckuding our own, a collection of various parts accumulated along the way. The most surprising, of course, is Troy Percival-- who seems to have found a fountain of youth in Florida. Miller and Howell are LOOGYs-- Howell came in the gathright deal; and Dan Wheeler is a good set-up guy who started with Tampa, got good in Houston and came back to the SunShine State in exchange for Ty Wigginton. Again I thinkwe trump them with depth, but it's not a bad pen.

The lineup is intriguing-- lots of stories here.

Dioner Navarro was of course the one "get" coming out of the Yanks farm system-- position players, that is-- and the Dodgers got him in the Randy Johnson-Shawn Green three way deal-- then unloaded him pretty unceremoniously 18 months later for Toby Hall. Navarro hasn't really been all that special at the plate until this year, when he has broken out and is hitting .350. No he can;t keep that up but he is a notch above our guy;

Carlos Pena-- we all know this story. Will Barton get the patience that Pena did not? He is hitting for low average this year, but he has become a genuine 30-35HR threat; Only Thomas on our squad can supply similar power, and he's 10 years older than Pena.

Eric Hinske-- a spot starter and DH-- but he can hit, too;

Jonny Gomes-- their Pronk. Not much average but decent power.

Iwamura is a Japanese signee (from the Yakut Swallows) who seems OK at 2nd. Bartlett came in the Young-Garza deal to help shore up the defense-- he seems to be doing that but can't hit a lick;

And then there are 3 studs that we simply cannot offer any comparison to. Carl Crawford can do everything but hit for power-- he's actually off to a bit of a slow start-- but this is a guy who will hit 300, steal bases, play fabulous left field, and throw in 12 to 15 triples. He's only 26, if you can believe it'

BJ Upton-- they finally converted him to a full-time OF last year. and got 300-386-508 from a 22 year old as a result. 303-395-433 so far this year-- his power is down like everyone else's. But make no mistake this is a perennial All-Star talent.

Evan Longoria-- considered by many the #1 prospect in baseball entering this season. he is struggling below .250, but has already shown the flashes of brilliance with some late-inning heroics (or extra innings in one notable game, alas) of late. He is as close to can't miss as anyone-- remember that in a couple of seasons we could be seeing a MVP candidate.

These last three separate the two organizations in my book-- for at least this year and next. We simply don't have a player who can match any of the three. maybe Gonzalez will-- or maybe Beane will acquire a similar talent with a deal later this year or after the season ends.

But if you throw me up against the wall, a team with young talent the likes of Kazmir, Garza, shields, Upton, Crawford and Longoria gets a slight edge over our guys. Yes we have more pitching depth but that's not enough to make up for the star deficit. 

 

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It's kind of hard to compare the futures of two organizations...

when you don’t look at their minor league systems.

The Rays have, by everyone’s reckoning, the best farm in the game right now… and are about to add the #1 overall pick to that farm. The A’s system is quite good, probably in the top 5 in baseball right now, but it doesn’t really compare.

On the other hand, the Rays play in a much tougher division, so in terms of “who is more likely to win a WS in the next 5 years,” I’m not sure who I would pick.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on May 26, 2008 11:55 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

If you have the time and interest

Be my guest.

I am well aware of how strong their system is. I kept this to the major league level, and thus by definition it’s a look ahead for only a couple of years—max.

But do you disagree with the fundamental conclusion—they appear better than we do for at least the next couple of years?? Leaving aside the competiitio within divisions.

by madmongoose on May 27, 2008 12:03 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't disagree

In fact, you probably didn’t state it strongly enough. In terms of pure “talent in system,” the Rays are not merely better than Oakland, they’re the best team in baseball.

My post was simply constructive criticism—if you are going to look at a team’s future, you need to examine their farm system, at least their AA and AAA teams.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on May 27, 2008 9:01 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

a's have the brighter future

since they play in a 4 team division with only one really good team.

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on May 27, 2008 12:09 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I like the A's chances

for that reason alone.

Tampa has plenty of talent, but they must deal with the East. The A’s, when you get down to it, have to beat the Angels to make the playoffs. That’s going to be tough, but it is still just one team to beat.

Right now, Tampa looks like the stronger team, although that is probably more a function of my skepticism about the A’s staying power this year. But they’re young, are counting on Troy Percival as their closer, and have a lineup that is more intriguing (because of the highly-touted individual talent) than it is scary.

We’ll see, though. I sure like Kazmir. That was an awful trade by the Mets.

by bear88 on May 27, 2008 12:19 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

This is a really good question actually

The situation for both teams are very simular. The Devil Rays on field product, minors and majors, is probably brighter to be honest. They have more blue-chip prospects, meaning they are more likely to pan out than ours, at least in number.

We have good pitching in the minors, but injuries and ineffectivness have hurt our top pitching prospects. Gio is struggling a lot in AAA, Simmons is injured in AA, Anderson struggled hard and then went on the DL in A+, DLS has a shoulder injury in A+ as well and might be out for the year, and H-Rod is sucking hard in AA with his old walk habbits resurfacing (he really should be back in Stockton).

Cahill, Mazzaro and Italiano are the only ones who are truley excelling.

On the offense, we have Doolittle (1B), Cunningham (CF), and we have Buck and CarGon doing decently in AAA. But we have no one in the infield. The Devil Rays have people in the infield, with Longoria already up at 3B. They have lots of top pitching prospects, and the #1 pick.

But there is also the fact that both teams are trying for new stadiums. The Devil Rays look like they are drawing more now that they are winning, which might very well translate to good attendance if they continue to do so with a new stadium. Meanwhile the A’s are struggling with attendance the last decade despite being good, which is a concern since that means they could still struggle even after getting a new stadium and the shine wears off.

But the thing is, as Marine Layer covered on his blog, the Devil Rays plans look very sketchy after their meeting with the city council, whereas the A’s plans look solid and almost a sure thing barring nation wide economic problems (which would derail everything anyways). So the A’s will have a new venue, but the Devil Rays venue is still up for grabs, with huge funding questions.

by Zonis on May 27, 2008 12:23 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

But that wasn't the actual question.

madmongoose has clearly stated that his assessment of both organizations ignores the minor league systems, which makes this whole comparison nonsensical and pointless.

by methodrampage on May 27, 2008 7:43 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oh come on

I think it hardly “nonsensical and pointless” to begin to size our folks up against the other AL team that is clearly on the rise. But for the Twins—and that was a bit of a stretch given a very different organizational philosophy—A’s really haven’t had a true small market rival in this league for the last 10 years. And now we do. I didn’t ignore the minor leagues except to state that they have a very strong system.

But when most of the current on-field talent is under 30—and for us the same—I’d think comparing the actual major league players is hardly a “nonsensical or pointless” exercise. I would think that over the next couple of years there might only be 2-3 players per team—maximum—that have a significant impact and are not yet in the Show. I mean these rotations are very young.

by madmongoose on May 27, 2008 9:23 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

he didn't say it was nonsensical and pointless to size up the a's and rays

he said ignoring the minor league systems made the comparison nonsensical and pointless, and he’s right.
most on-field talent is under 30? When was the last time the majority of a’s/rays players were over 30? how many players are still on each team from just four years ago? what do you mean by “future”, next year?

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on May 27, 2008 10:08 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

OK

i disagree with you on the first point.

The A’s have their youngest pitching staff since about 2001—I’m sure the Rays are similar.

As to the “future”, I’m talking at least this year and next, when i believe the impact of players not currently on the team’s ML rosters will be small. Not non-existent, but small. The problem with a comparison of 3+ years is that there are literally too many moves—drafts, trades, injuries, free agency—that cannot be predicted with any confidence. For any team.

As to four years ago I think it’s pretty evident that a) both teams have gone through a major restructuring in the past 2-3 years and b) they both are on pretty good footing right now, meaning that future moves should be fewer and less monumental. Young, wigginton, Huff, hendrickson and Gathright all left in the past two years—and baldelli seems to be fading away—I can’t imagine 6 players like that from the current TB roster will be leaving in the next couple. Probably not even 2 or 3, to be honest. If you go back 3+ years, we saw Hudson, Mulder, Zito, Haren, Swisher, Kendall, Kotsay, Payton and Hatteberg all depart—4 starters and 5 pretty much full-time position players. (and Thomas too) I can’t imagine 9 similar players from the current batch leaving in the next 3—or even 4 or 5 players, to be honest, not counting the obvious stopgap players such as Mike Sweeney, Emil Brown and the Hurt.

So to summarize I think these are both good young teams who will only get better- but who have established most of their core- so I think this is a very opportune time to begin comparing them.

by madmongoose on May 27, 2008 10:25 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

The Oakland Core

I don’t think it’s as established as you think. Crosby, Ellis, Harden, Blanton and/or Street (it would still seem that both could be on the trading block) could all be gone in two years. Chavez will probably be done with the A’s in 3 years and Cust will be 32 and probably on his way out. So that’s 4 everyday players, 1 definately starter, and possibly an additional starter and a closer. That gives you a total turnover of possible 7 “impact” (relative only to their playing time) players in 3 years. The next 3 years could still very much be a transition period for the A’s. Also, Emil is every bit as noteworthy as Jay Payton.

by methodrampage on May 27, 2008 11:15 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree it's not as established...

which means they will lose much less of a true “core” than you are arguing. I don’t think they will jettison both Blanton and Harden. I know he did it once before but I see them making it a go of it with at least one of them, depending on events the rest of this year. Problem right now is that neither seems to be valued where the A’s want then for different reasons.

I don’t view Street as part of our core—nor is Percival for them. Great post by AaronGleeman today about the continuing inanity of pitching your best bullpen pitcher less overall and in less crucial situations than other guys—using Nathan as the example.

How can chavez be part of the core when he hasn’t played an inning this year and was beset by injury last year?

As to Crosby and Ellis, i again I can see one leaving, but not both, in the next 2-3 years. We simply are weakest in the middle infield beneath the major league level—not sure BB can rectify it that fast.

Emil ain’t Jay Payton. Cust is in the core and he’s cheap—pencil him for another 2-3 years or at least until he proves he can’t hit a lick.

so at most I see 2-3 “core” players leaving here within the next 2-3 years.

by madmongoose on May 27, 2008 11:39 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Our "core"

defined as the key players on this team that provide a foundation to winning over the next two-three years—is:

the rotation—current, that is. Gaudin is not a core performer

Crosby
Ellis
Suzuki (perhaps)
Barton
Buck (perhaps)
Cust
Gonzalez or Sweeney

I don’t view anyone in the bullpen or Chavez or Thomas or MSweeney or Brown as part of the core. They’re all either short-termers or not really that dependable

by madmongoose on May 27, 2008 12:10 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good news about all that pitching

There is time for these guys to develop. Blez quotes Beane as saying he absoutely believes there’s at least one ace in that mix—and maybe more.

The depth of this team is pretty stunning:

6 major league level starters
Street-Embree-Casilla-Devine-Brown-Saarloos-Braden-Foulke-Calero

That’s 15 pitchers

2 catchers
Thomas-Sweeney-Barton
Ellis-Crosby-Chavez-Hannahan-Murphy-Petit
Brown-Sweeney-Denorfia-Buck-Cust-Davis

That’s 16 position players. and we’re not to Carlos Gonzalez yet.

31 deep—gotta love it.

by madmongoose on May 27, 2008 7:48 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

DLS

“DLS has a shoulder injury in A+” . I thought it was an elbow injury?

by Colorado Fan on May 27, 2008 10:34 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Indeed

Dr. Louis Yocum has been consulted… which is very very very bad.

We’ll see what happens, but Tommy John surgery (and the attendant missing of this season and most of next season) is quite possible.

It just points up the need to amass lots of pitching prospects. The attrition rate is staggering.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on May 27, 2008 11:33 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I've been reading about Lee and Grant and the 40 days

In shelby Foote’s classic trilogy.

Not to compare something as mundane as baseball to war, but you want to talk attrition rate? basically within those 40 days—Wilderness, Spotsylvania and Cold Harbor with various skirmishes—Grant lost one-sixth of his men dead, injured or captured; then another sixth of what was remaining; then another sixth of what remained after that. And still kept on the offensive knowing that he would still have the numbers advantage over a depleted Southern army under Lee. And the killing and general conditions of those battles were pure hell—foreshadowing WWI—most of the Union casualties at Cold Harbor came in the first 8 minutes—soliders shot up before they even had a chance to make a “charge”

by madmongoose on May 27, 2008 11:44 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not Grant's finest hour

but in fairness to him, he was dealing with an army which had a history of failure and officers of (I’m being charitable here) uneven competence at a lot of important positions. There were multiple opportunities in that campaign for the Army of the Potomac to have essentially ended the war a year before it did so. I have a lot of respect for Grant as a general, but his hands were tied.

Foote’s historical work is a bit dated at this point, but as prose writing it’s awfully hard to top. Those books should be required reading for anyone with any interest in writing nonfiction for a non-academic audience.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on May 27, 2008 1:09 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Id have to go with the Rays..

Their farm is just stacked. David Price and Kazmir as the 1/2 punch is gonna be insane. Along with Shields and and Mcgee. Also they have a better offense. Only place they could be weak is the pen. Hate to say it but its the Rays.

When will then be now? Soon.

by Syphon on May 27, 2008 1:02 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

2 Clerical items & my opinion
1) Steve Phillips did not trade away Kazmir. Jim Duquette traded him for Victor Zambrano.
#2) Dionar Navarro was not “uncerimoniously” traded away. The Dodgers wanted starting pitching and Mark Hendrickson was having a good year at the time and they included Toby Hall basically as a throw in/salary relief.

My opinion is that the Rays do have the better farm system (perhaps #1 overall coming into this year). And with the #1 selection this year (and all rounds there after), they are in great position to field and ultra-competitve team for many years to come. Plus they have locked up their young guys, so they don’t have that concern either. Basically, they have more higher ceiling and more developed prospects than we do. However, we are far from a bare cupboard.

by jasonlbe on May 27, 2008 2:55 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Oops on the Phillips thing

Nice catch.

As to navarro I still think if he had met expectations the Dodgers don’t deal him. Particularly since they have such a good track record of hanging on to their catchers (lol)

by madmongoose on May 27, 2008 6:07 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

considering history and the GM

I’d take the A’s, thank you.

Let's have our Piazza and eat the Cust too - SPWC

by closetasfan on May 27, 2008 6:01 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

The Rays have the better farm system and better young talent

at the MLB level.

The A’s have Billy Beane.

I’d say it’s a toss-up.

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on May 27, 2008 9:03 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

They got the brawn, we got the brains,

except we’ve got some brawn too, and Friedman’s not exactly dumb, either.

Yeah, it’s a toss up.

"You have to have a catcher or you'll have all passed balls."- Casey Stengel

by Gaijin_Suketto on May 27, 2008 9:51 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Tiebreak goes to the cooler future stadium

And if the Rays park turns out like the most current renderings then I’d give them the nod.

by Nick S on May 28, 2008 12:18 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

The way I see it.....

both have good talent on the field, are competitive and have great potential in the wings.

Their fanbase consists of 90 year olds.
Our fanbase consists of 90 people

I’d say its a wash

2008 Oakland Athletics...more than meets the eye!

by OptimistPrime on May 28, 2008 8:27 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

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