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A cheery (if realistic) look at the A's

Well, the A's sweep of the Red Sox kind of screwed up the premise of this diary, now that everyone is all happy, but I'll write it anyway.

We have a lot of be pleased with concerning the team, including some things that have gone a bit unnoticed.  It's not clear how far this team is from true contention, and there are some crosscurrents that make this difficult to predict, but the outlook is a lot brighter than I ever expected.

I'll return to my random thoughts format, in part because I like it, and in part because I don't have a big theme...

-- Think about the Dan Haren trade.  Haren is performing as well as expected with the Diamondbacks, giving them an important piece of a possible World Series winner.  But the trade still looks like a steal for the A's.  The supposed keys to the deal remain in the minors, but the two starters we got in return have lower ERAs than Haren's and look pretty impressive after almost a third of the season.  I don't know the WHIP and all the other stuff, but that's pretty impressive.  They'll struggle at times, as the league adjusts, but both look like keepers to me.

-- The "throw-in" of the Swisher deal may turn out to be the best Major League player. 

-- I have not been a fan of the Geren choice as manager, less because of Geren himself than because of the whole "best man" weirdness.  But I must admit that he's done a nice job juggling an awful lot of people and giving them enough playing time while maximizing their chances for success.

-- Bobby Crosby isn't awful.  This point has been made periodically, but it should be emphasized, because he has been everyone's favorite whipping boy for years.  I remember a conversation at AN Day a couple of years ago (I think) in which I argued that we need to ratchet down our expectations for Crosby.  He's not a budding superstar, or even a star, but he is a capable defensive shortstop who wouldn't be a problem if he just could stop swinging at crappy offspeed pitches and trying to hit home runs.  He's not perfect now, but he's been fine.

-- I'm not sure how Barton is going to turn out.  I've always been a little skeptical about a first baseman without power, because guys like that have to be on-base machines to be terribly useful.  I don't mind his struggles, because that's what happens with young players.  But I do wonder about the long-term potential of a slow, powerless first baseman with an average glove at best.

-- Let's do ourselves a favor and not get too excited about Chavez's possible return.  Whenever he returns, whether tomorrow or later in the year, it's going to take him a while.  I will concede a twinge of excitement simply at getting the pre-injury Chavez back.  I have given up hope that he will be a great hitter.

-- The A's are one of the few teams that can lose its two right-handed setup guys and not appear to miss a beat.  Bullpen depth is handy.

--  The team has a lot of decisions to make, but many are dilemmas created by good performances.  We're all eager to see CarGon, but I think the team's current performance - and that of the current outfielders - argues for keeping him in Sacramento until July or until he's totally dominating AAA pitching.  I'm cheap, and think life would be simpler if he's more affordable years down the road.  Besides, who's to say he would play better than Sweeney if called up early?

-- The minor league pitching looks more promising than it has in years, despite the recent injury problems.  Hitting remains a need, though.  I assume that's what we will be targeting, in the draft and any major trades.

-- Harden doesn't have enough of a track record of health to yield much of a return, so I don't really see the point of trading him now.  We'll see how things look at the end of July.

-- I remain uncertain of Blanton's trade value, and am not sure dealing him is wise as long as the team remains in the race.  But he's probably the most valuable trading chip, especially for a team that loses a starter in the next month.  

-- While the American League is as weak as it's been in years, I think the Wild Card is very unlikely.  Some team will get hot.  And the Angels are probably just too good.  That's okay, from my perspective.  The team is hanging around, proving entertainment to those of us who pay attention, and might get lucky.  More likely, the A's are setting themselves up to be a legit contender as soon as next year.

-- Frank Thomas remains a presence in the lineup, and takes pressure off everyone else even when he's not hot.  Of course, if he has a good year, he will probably be playing somewhere else next season.

-- The outfield is crowded already, as is the bullpen (despite the injuries), so those are likely places where deals will be made.  The trouble is that I don't see any of those players yielding high-potential prospects.

-- Good pitching covers a multitude of sins.  But the team needs to get better defensively (something that should start to happen as injured players return and prospects get called up) and needs to develop or acquire a stud hitter.  For all of my optimism, I remain concerned about the team's ability to find somebody like that.  They're not usually lying around, waiting to be found.

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Great points all

I have some hope that if Frank Thomas has a good year he might re-sign with us (if we want him to) – he might choose loyalty/”a good thing” this time after what happened last time.

I agree about keeping CarGon in AAA for a while longer. He’s 22 and unpolished – not the kind of guy you promote fast. Greg Smith, more mature, polished – he’s the kind of guy you can fast-track simply because he’s going to do the same thing at any level: get guys out, not be a star because he doesn’t have that kind of physical ability.

I think Geren has done a terrific job, not just managing the clubhouse and lineup, but also strategically. Every fan thinks the moves his/her team’s manager makes are terrible. Geren has made a few mistakes like any other manager will, but actually I think he’s been an equally smart tactician and clubhouse/ethos manager.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on May 26, 2008 9:03 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

But would we want to re-sign Thomas?

It would cost a good deal more money than this year, even if Big Frank took a bit of a discount (and agreed to a one-year contract, which I assume would have to be a non-negotiable condition for us). He’ll be another year older, and if it turns out to be the year he finally feels his age it might cost us quite a few games before we make a correction, both because his status and prior record in Oakland grant him some extra leeway and because we more or less expect six weeks of lousy hitting before he puts it together anyway. Mostly, though, because he’s purely a DH, it means we have an overcrowded outfield, with Cust, Buck, the erstwhile Bad Sweeney, and Gonzalez, and that’s not even considering that Cunningham could be ready at some point in the year. I like Cust on the team, but I don’t think I’m going to get used to him out in left (dammit Jack, Rickey would have had that ball!) and am kind of consoling myself by thinking of his left field days as a temporary arrangement.

A lot of things can happen and I’m not saying I’m committed to not re-signing him, but it is a bit awkward.

As for Geren, I can’t really disagree with anything you wrote. But sometimes I find myself dreading the prospect of Geren staying on the job for years to come strictly because I simply can’t stand to hear him speak or see him interviewed. That relentless, empty happyspeak drives me up the wall. Postive messages basically mean nothing if they come from someone who produces no other kind. It seems to work for him so far, but beyond driving me crazy I’m also concerned that eventually players will tune that stuff out. I also tend to worry that people who speak in happyspeak cliches also tend to think in happyspeak cliches, which isn’t really thinking at all.

Oh well, offending my sense of style isn’t a firing offense, especially since I’m not his boss. Maybe he’s some sort of Columbo, with all sorts of wheels turning behind the protective screen of blather.

by Faust on May 27, 2008 1:11 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

not much room for a not-cheap thomas next year

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on May 27, 2008 2:57 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's exactly what I said

Only I used a whole lot more words to do it. Quit showing me up!

At least I economized on the sig line.

by Faust on May 27, 2008 4:08 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Better to hope the A's score a draft pick from him

as they did in 2007. Corey Brown would not be an A’s prospect today if they hadn’t…

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on May 27, 2008 4:51 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Crosby

He’s been interesting this year, to say the least. He’s not hitting for home run power yet, but he’s near the league leaders in doubles … which might suggest that he’s a power surge away from real power, like he had his rookie year. As you state, he’s been fine, not great, but fine: durable, consistent. What appeared to be a real weakness in March seems to be at least an asset, if not a strength.

by Crosbino on May 26, 2008 9:26 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Why is it such a bad thing to have "too much"

We always talk about having a “crowded outfield” or “crowded bullpen” but remember what last year was like with out having any sort of depth. Painful.

I don’t think we need to look at making any deals to free up space. Injuries happen, slumps happen. There was a reason Billy made the deals he did. We were just way to thin in many positions. I wish others would take this perspective.

by HRH on May 26, 2008 9:27 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Future team looks a little unbalanced

C Suzuki RH
1B Barton LH
2B Ellis RH
SS Crosby RH
3B Chavez LH
LF Buck LH
CF Sweeney LH
RF Gonzalez LH
DH Cust LH

The heart of the order will be all lefty. If Crosby can maintain his current pace and pick up the HR power a bit, that would be a big boost. I wonder at some point if they exchange Buck or Sweeney for an equivalent player who hits from the other side?

by boilerdan on May 27, 2008 11:43 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Bullets

How soon you forget. I always used dashes in my random item diaries and posts, not bullets.

I’m a nonviolent sort.

by bear88 on May 27, 2008 10:56 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

You were inaccurate in your description of how AN treats Crosby

Some people have used him as their whipping boy simply because they’re in to that kind of thing!

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on May 27, 2008 8:30 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

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