Speed vs Power --- an analysis done by Paul Depodesta

by echerrst on May 16, 2008 4:20 PM PDT

Interesting to keep in mind when discussing players like Cust in the field/lineup. Also interesting when you listen to KNBR all day, and hear Giants fans praise the team speed, and how you manufacture runs.

Main Point :

"Since 2004 (opening of Petco), there have been 14 NL teams who have won at least 89 games, and there have been 14 NL teams who have won 71 or fewer games. What is a common characteristic of the 14 winning teams? Every single team that won at least 89 games out-homered their opponents over the course of the season. Every single one. Of the 14 teams at the bottom, just 3 out-homered their opponents. So, out-homering your opponent does not guarantee success. However, getting out-homered generally leads to tee-times in October.

Now we'll examine the same teams as it relates to SB's. If you take the net stolen bases* (SB minus CS), the top 14 teams stole more bases than they allowed on seven occasions, just 50% of the time. The bottom 14 teams stole more bases than they allowed six times, 43% of the time. So, stealing more bases than your opponent indicates... very little. Indeed, the Padres have been negative on the stolen base scale in each of our four seasons in Petco - all winning campaigns - and our best stolen base season was our worst record (82-80) while our worst stolen base season was our best record (89-74).

Ok, ok, but maybe I'm cherry-picking the teams here, so let's take a look at every team in the NL since 2004 and run a correlation to winning percentage. The correlation between net home runs (home runs hit minus home runs allowed) and winning percentage is about .56 - surprisingly strong considering it's just one statistic that occurs roughly twice per game. The correlation between net stolen bases and winning percentage over that time frame? .19, a level which is referred to as "insignificant". Basically, no relationship exists."

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Nice article, Cherry

I’d highly recommend everyone click the link and venture over to DePo’s new blog. It’s been entertaining reading since it started last week. He’s the first member of a Front Office to engage in this sort of dialogue with a fan base – I hope others follow suit.

by notsellingjeans on May 16, 2008 4:27 PM PDT 0 recs

I don't know how helpful power is,

but I know how harmful it is not to have it.

-A 2008 A’s fan

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on May 16, 2008 9:08 PM PDT 0 recs

QOTM

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on May 17, 2008 8:49 AM PDT up 0 recs

And yet the A's are 5th in the AL in runs scored despite playing in a pitcher's park

by WaddellCanseco on May 18, 2008 10:22 AM PDT up 0 recs

Agree 100%

This article in the Merc last month examined the fallacy of “manufacturing” runs and the other baseball cliches always heard around a team with no power. One thing I did not know was that the 1981 A’s (ie, the Billyball era at its peak) led the AL in home runs, and won the AL West. I do know that the 1982 A’s led the AL in stolen bases (and caught stealing, both unintentional and intentional), but were horrible. That’s why I cringe when I see this year’s team trying to bunt a runner to second with no outs, or have runners thrown out at home with no outs. etc.

"Evidently, a large number of people said, 'We really need more vermin at the ballpark, Artie.'" - Nick (AN), 10/7/07

by doctorK on May 16, 2008 10:30 PM PDT 0 recs

MGL on the relationship

between speed and defense:

I used data from 2003-2006 to calculate every player’s speed score—sort of a 2007 speed projection. First, I rated each player on a scale of 1 to 5, based upon four criteria:
1. Triples rate.
2. Baserunning linear weights.
3. Stolen base attempt rate.
4. SB success percentage.

2007 UZR
POS Fast (N games) Slow (N games) Fast Advantage
1B 3.9 (648) -.6 (2611) 4.5
2B .9 (2549) -3.6 (662) 4.5
3B 3.3 (1041) 1.4 (974) 1.9
SS 1.0 (3091) -10.2 (631) 11.2
LF 5.1 (1670) -8 (807) 5.9
CF .8 (3635) -9.8 (107) 10.6
RF .4 (1711) -5.6 (1020) 6
+5.5 (5.1/6.2)

2007 projected UZR
POS Fast (N games) Slow (N games) Fast Advantage
1B 3.0 (2276) -.8 (9919) 3.8
2B .5 (9529) -4.6 (2903) 5.1
3B -1.1 (3310) -.7 (5014) -0.4
SS -2.4 (12775) -6.2 (1047) 3.8
LF .6 (5205) -9.2 (2488) 9.8
CF 1.5 (11742) -27.3 (520) 28.8
RF -.4 (4412) -3.3 (3461) 2.9
+4.7 (2.7/7.6)

Correlation Coefficient® between speed and projected UZR, min 100 games
POS Speed v. 2007 Projections
1B .224 (59)
2B .288 (56)
3B .038 (53)
SS -.004 (47)
LF .303 (56)
CF .464 (57)
RF .129 (60)

Remember that the magnitude of "r" depends not only on the quality of the relationship but on the sample sizes as well (keep in mind that the UZR projections are subject to sample error and even the data that go onto calculating the speed scores are subject to sample error, as well as the fact that we have a limited number of observations). Values in the .2 to .3 range are pretty strong considering the sample sizes of the data used. The .464 is quite strong.

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on May 16, 2008 11:26 PM PDT 0 recs

Damn, the formatting is all screwed up

Anyone who’s interested should just read the article.

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on May 16, 2008 11:28 PM PDT up 0 recs

That's pretty curious

Speed has no observed impact on shortstop defense?

He takes a nice crack at some of these issues in the article, but I don’t think the data is (are?) reliable enough to move beyond the general conclusions that we already know (speed is good in general, especially in CF, etc.).

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on May 17, 2008 9:20 AM PDT up 0 recs

I wouldn't think so ...

the ‘speed’ element of playing shortstop is more about quickness, since the SS is rarely going to field a ball that he has to take more than a couple of steps to get to. There’s also the fact that there are very few shortstops out there who don’t have the athleticism to play the position.

The outfielders, of course, need straight away sprint speed to cover ground.

I’d guess for 1b and 2b, D correlates a bit with speed, not because they really need that speed but because for those of those positions there are a number of zero athleticism guys who are just playing the easiest position they can.

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on May 17, 2008 12:01 PM PDT up 0 recs

IMO,

your 2nd point makes more sense: the majority of SS are have a decent amount of athleticism and speed. So, what distinguishes the good defensive SS from the rest is not so much speed, whether it be explosive speed or max speed, but rather baseball specific skill.

After all, 2b also, in theory, are not going to take more than a couple steps. Yet, the study shows a reasonably strong correlation between good D at 2b and “speed”.

Obviously, “speed” in MGL’s study is not so much “speed”, but rather a function of baserunning.

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on May 17, 2008 12:13 PM PDT up 0 recs

I would say that the first point is why SS and OF are different ...

I would say the second point is why SS and 2b are different …

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on May 17, 2008 1:20 PM PDT up 0 recs

I got no idea

But I would think that second base can actually make more plays with speed than a short stop by angling to the left.

Well at least they have an opportunity when going left to get to balls that take more than a couple of steps and still have a short enough throw to make a decent play.

Of course, this is not really something I have tried to build a statistical regression to prove or anything.

by jeffro on May 19, 2008 4:32 PM PDT up 0 recs

You don't need great speed to be a great OF

Signed,
Jim Edmonds

As DePo says, speed helps – speed can even make up for bad defense (Byrnes) – great reads and routes are still significantly more important.

http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/

by thejd44 on May 18, 2008 10:27 AM PDT up 0 recs

"speed can make"

“up for bad defense (Byrnes) – great reads and routes are still significantly more important.”

Is there any evidence for this? That great reads and routes are “significantly” more important? Anecdotally, Carlos Gomez takes unimpressive routes, and does not read the ball well. He’s very very fast. Most metrics rank him already as among the best CFs in MLB.

How “great” actually was Edmonds? Year by year UZR from 2003-2006: 0 runs above average, 12 runs below, 3 runs below, 3 runs above. From 2000-2002, 5 runs above, 14 runs below, 7 runs above.

The Fielding Bible, which uses a different raw data source, had Edmonds as 15 plays below average in the 3 years from 2003-2005, 28th out of 32 CFs they ranked. He was never in the top 10 in any one of those years.

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on May 18, 2008 11:00 AM PDT up 0 recs

Ear Weaver on Team Speed - Hilarious!!!!!

Link (Be advised this is a rated “R” audio of Earl Weaver on the radio):

http://users.rcn.com/pkatcher/audio/EarlWeaverTirade.mp3

This is by far the funniest sound bite I have ever heard from a manager. Classic.

by oaktownmario on May 17, 2008 12:38 AM PDT 0 recs

For the record, Bob Geren once gave me

some truly outstanding advice about how to plant tomatoes, and he only used profanities to further the content.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on May 17, 2008 9:23 AM PDT up 0 recs

wow..

I want more…

Ellis for President

by tosk on May 17, 2008 11:31 AM PDT up 0 recs

Then get off your

c#cksu#king a$$, find a god#amn link that has more god#amn fu#king gems by Earl “The Pr#ck” Weaver, and then go fu#k yourself for good godd#mn measure.

Just trying to help.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on May 17, 2008 12:53 PM PDT up 0 recs