Infusion of Talent
Ah, its been so long since I've Rosterbated, it feels so dirty. So lets get on with it.
Come the end of May, the A's will have several roster moves waiting for them. The first and most pressing of which will be to activate Eric Chavez and reinstall him at Third Base to replace Jack Hanahan. Hanahan, like all of his other teammates, is not hitting for average, nor is he hitting for power, but he is getting on base at a good clip, putting up a batting line of
Two other moves that the A's will likely make are the call up and recalling of Carlos Gonzalez and Travis Buck. Incidentally, while Carlos Gonzalez has spent most of his minor league playing career in Centerfield, and Travis Buck has spent his playing career in the Corner Outfield position, the two have been swapped in Sacramento since Buck was sent down and Gonzalez activated. Travis Buck has been playing Centerfield with Gonzalez in Right Field, possibly pointing to where they will be playing when they make it up to Oakland.
Assuming that both youngsters are back in form and hitting after their respective injuries, the lineup could receive an instant boost. The Outfield, which is currently a weakness among weaknesses for the A's, would instantly become stronger both offensively and defensively, with Emil Brown and Jack Cust platooning in Left Field instead of both manning the corners. Emil Brown could even be traded if the club finds favor with Chris Denorfia or Ryan Sweeney over the stopgap ReAct Brown.
Kurt Suzuki's latest struggles also lead to another interesting potential callup. Landon Powell, who was drafted at the same time as Suzuki, is playing regularly in Sacramento. While Powell is hitting for a low average on the season, he is hitting .250 in May, but with a .930 OPS in May and a .845 OPS on the year, most of which is coming through the A's main weakness of Slugging. The Catcher has hit 7 Homeruns this season in 72 At Bats. Powell has hit much better against LHP this year, but has only a .100 BABIP against RHP according to Minor League Splits, so platooning could very well work with Suzuki. Having both catchers split time behind the dish would keep Powell healthy, as well as add much needed offense the A's lineup, as Powell has always been considered a much better hitter than Suzuki, as well as a better fielder, though with concerns about injuries (ACL in particular), his weight and his work ethic.
Justin Duchscherer came back from injury last year. Chad Gaudin came back from injury last year. But I do not trust the injured A who should be rejoining the team shortly to remain both healthy and effective. Kiko Calero is coming back to Oakland after his stint on the DL, and a rough night at Sacramento, very soon if reports are to be believed, and the injury to Casilla might ensure that he will return. But with the Bullpen functioning well, and pitchers already not getting enough work as they need (Gaudin), Calero does not seem to be worth bringing up. Indeed, Brad Ziegler seems a better choice, especially to complement Alan Embree's Power-Leftyness with a Lefty-Chadwick in Brad Ziegler.
Gio Gonzalez will not be joining the A's anytime soon, as the lefty has a 4.85 ERA in Sacramento, with a 1.67 WHIP to go with it. Not a whole lot of pitching is doing well in Sacramento, so it is a good bet that few pitchers will be coming out to help us with our MLB staff already running very well on its own.
So the question of course becomes who will be sent down if and when these moves are made. Gregorio Petit has already been called up, if not temporarily, to fill in for the sore Mark Ellis and the DL'ed Casilla. Perhaps the A's should consider sending Bobby Crosby down to Triple A and put some pressure on Crosby to perform, while putting out possibly the best defensive infield in the Majors on the field.
When Eric Chavez is activated, does Chavez take Hanahan or Murphy's place on the 25 Man Roster? Hanahan can play Third Base, and possibly Second base, but because of Chavez's injury, was never tried there. Or perhaps do the A's finally make a decision on the MIke Sweeney-Frank Thomas issue and trade one of the two sluggers?
If Buck and CarGon are called up, who are the two odd-men out of the outfield in Oakland? Rajai Davis is out of options, Ryan Sweeney has one left, as does Chris Denorfia (DL), and Emil Brown has the right to refuse an assignment to the Minors if I am not mistaken.
Come June, this is the roster I would put out there, for better or worse.
R C1 Kurt Suzuki
L 1B Daric Barton
R 2B Mark Ellis
L 3B Eric Chavez
R SS Gregorio Petit
L LF Jack Cust
L CF Travis Buck
L RF Carlos Gonzalez
R DH Frank Thomas
S C2 Landon Powell
R SS Donnie Murphy
L 3B Jack Hanahan
R CF Rajai Davis
R CF Chris Denorfia
RHP Joe Blanton
RHP Rich Harden*
RHP Justin Duchscherer
LHP Dana Eveland
LHP Greg Smith
RHP Huston Street
RHP Chad Gaudin
RHP Andrew Brown
LHP Alan Embree
RHP Joey Devine
LHP Brad Ziegler**
* If Still Alive
** Till Santiago Casilla gets back
Moves:
Option Bobby Crosby to Triple A Sacramento.
Trade Mike Sweeney.
Keep Kiko Calero on Disabled List.
Option Ryan Sweeney to Triple A Sacramento.
Trade Emil Brown.
Call up Brad Ziegler.
Call up Carlos Gonzalez.
Recall Travis Buck.
Activate Eric Chavez.
Call up Landon Powell.
Lineup:
L CF Travis Buck
L 1B Daric Barton
R DH Frank Thomas
L LF Jack Cust
L RF Carlos Gonzalez
L 3B Eric Chavez
R 2B Mark Ellis
R C1 Kurt Suzuki
R SS Gregorio Petit
3 recs |
86 comments
Comments
well I screwed that one up then, didn't I...
by Zonis on May 16, 2008 3:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You can edit the fanpost...
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on May 16, 2008 4:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I gotta think that there's pretty much 0% chance of Crosby being demoted.
by mikev on May 16, 2008 3:18 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I agree
and the evidence that Petit will be better than him is pretty limited. Unless Petit ends up hitting a lot better than his minor league career so far has indicated, he’ll probably need to learn to play 2b and 3b as well—essentially filling a sort of Mike Gallego role.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
by Nick on May 16, 2008 3:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Its a pipe dream, I know
I was thinking along the lines of Petit being better defensivly than Crosby, and offensivly likely the same. That, and to give Crosby the realization that his job might not be safe.
by Zonis on May 16, 2008 3:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
der er der
Gallego sure got a lot of playing time for his horrible BA
"The two of them deserve each other. One's a born liar, the other's convicted."
by SwampyD on May 16, 2008 3:41 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Well, one thing I give LaRussa a lot of credit for
is that he was very intelligent and disciplined about resting his starters. He sat guys before off days, or sat Lansford one day and Weiss the next so that Gallego would play two games in a row and not get too rusty.
Kind of different from Geren’s use of Suzuki, Crosby, and (before he got hurt) Ellis so far.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
by Nick on May 16, 2008 4:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd guess ...
that Buck playing CF in Sac speaks, not to who will play CF when they both get called up—but who the team expects to actually get called up in the immediate future.
The A’s want CarGon to play half a season in Sacramento—that’s the bulk of the reason Emil Brown was brought in. Buck will be up in a couple of weeks (assuming he remembers how to hit) as the primary CF for the next couple of months, at which point CarGon will go back to CF, preparing to take over there for the medium term.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on May 16, 2008 4:00 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
meh
I wouldn’t put too much weight on that. I expect to see Ryan Sweeny stay in Oakland longer than Denorfia, and Sweeny, despite being a natural corner outfielder, plays a much better center than Buck likely ever will. If the move to bring up Gonzalez happens, you’ll probably see the kid play center with Buck/Sweeny/Brown on the corners in what is likely to remain a constantly-shifting lineup throughout the year.
by shlecko on May 18, 2008 8:39 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
then where is Cust?
He needs to be in the outfield, while we have Thomas that is.
by butler19 on May 18, 2008 4:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Buck and Gonzalez have actually been alternating in CF
Further supporting the theory that the A’s are trying to get Buck ABs in CF this year, while continuing to prep Gonzalez to play there long term. Maybe the A’s are just keeping their options open and hoping that one of the two forces their way into the center garden.
I’m not sure how long the A’s can keep Calero on the DL, but I agree that Ziggy should be promoted ahead of him. Its time to see if the submariner can handle the bigs.
Finally, there is no way Landon Powell is ready for the big leagues. Certainly not if the A’s ever want him to develop into more than a backup.
by NRC on May 19, 2008 11:19 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re Powell
I actually think he’s basically ready myself. His BABIP this season is terrible, but that’s probably affected by the fact that he can’t leg out ground balls while he’s recovering from the knee injury. His power and OBP suggest that he is ready to be a contributor in the bigs as soon as he is fully healthy.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on May 19, 2008 12:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm so hot for you right now.
I’ve been waiting for Powell to recover and get healthy.
As much love as Suzuki gets, I think people are forgetting the fact that Powell was drafted first. Injuries set him back, big time.
by mikev on May 20, 2008 8:19 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lefty Bradford = Jay Marshall...
unfortunately.
Although he’s actually doing very well this season.
I don’t think Brown or Sweeney are going to be tradable. The A’s will have to release one of the Sweeney/Thomas pair at some point. Brown is, as far as I can tell, a gimmick to get an extra compensation pick, so he’s probably sticking around. But you could DFA Davis instead.
Much as I might like to see it, Crosby ain’t going to AAA.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on May 16, 2008 4:00 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Brown...
is serving a valuable role in delaying the service time of Buck/Sweeney/CarCon, whomever proves to be scuffling the most at any given time. Wasting their service while they’re playing poorly would be a crime – Alex Gordon in April/May ‘07.
Getting an extra year out of all three of those guys is probably Brown’s greatest value to the team. He provides an above-replacement-level amount of production in the outfield and bides time until all three of those guys can simultaneously do better than Brown himself is.
by notsellingjeans on May 16, 2008 4:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think Marshall has major league ability
If Geren had used him even a little bit properly last year, he would’ve put up much better numbers. He’s a LOOGY who faced more righties. He also would go weeks without appearing and then would struggle when thrust into some ridiculous situation.
Wouldn’t the prospect(s) the A’s could get for Brown be a better move than taking the comp. picks? In general, I’d rather have the more known commodity, even if they are low minors guys.
http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/
by thejd44 on May 16, 2008 4:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The A's couldn't get a trade done for Shannon Stewart
but he was Type B and should have gotten the team a comp pick (although they lost it because Toronto signed him to a minor-league deal).
It’s very easy to game the Elias rankings if you have a guy with a high, empty batting average and bad defense and hit him in an RBI slot. Eg Michael Young or Garrett Anderson.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on May 16, 2008 4:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I never, ever want to see Kiko Calero pitching in an A's uniform
I don’t think I’m exaggerating when I say they’d have to have 7-10 pitchers on the DL before I’d like to see him up. I just don’t think he has a damn thing left to offer a major league team. Especially not this one.
Seriously, look over the AAA (and even AA) roster. I can find at least 10 guys who I’d rather see pitch in the bullpen. Probably closer to 15 if I pick out some guys who probably aren’t that good, but are at least younger and might develop.
http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/
by thejd44 on May 16, 2008 4:21 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
uh, why the vehemence?
And, why so ready to throw away a potential trade chip? If Kiko can prove he’s healthy and effective, he could potentially be useful as a throw-in, at least, for a mid-season deal.
We're going to knock balls out of the country's park, for the home team, which is America. @('.')@
by monkeyball on May 16, 2008 4:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
re
Yeah, Kiko needs a chance to get it together. He’s only thrown 2 innings. They’ve been about the worst 2 innings possible with 5 walks, but, other than last year when he was hurt, Kiko has been a heck of a reliever for us. I don’t know if there’s a way to stash him in AAA another two weeks (back on the DL, and then another rehab?), but if possible, the guy should at least get a chance to throw 10-15 innings in AAA before he’s scrapheaped.
by 31Boots on May 16, 2008 6:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is that why he was nontendered and then resigned?
You’d figure that some other team that wanted him could have gotten him by simply offering him a contract during the offseason.
by mikev on May 16, 2008 10:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He was resigned within a day of being nontendered
It’s highly unlikely that he even spoke with other teams. The only reason for the NT was that the A’s wanted to cut his pay by more than 20% and couldn’t do that in arbitration.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on May 16, 2008 11:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh. I thought it was a couple days before they brought him back.
Still, the dude pretty much has no spot on the team right now. The only guy I could possibly see him replace in the pen is Foulke.
by mikev on May 17, 2008 12:06 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The issue is Emil Brown
The guy started out red hot, getting an extraordinary amount of RBI considering how terrible the rest of his stats are now and have been all year. Frankly, he appeared “clutch” where what he really was was lucky. The problem was, even with his crappy OPS, he convinced Geren to play him every day because of his RBI. As we all knew, this wouldn’t last, and it hasn’t, and he’s now a liability.
He needs to be cut (which I suspect he will be soon), leaving Cust out there in left, a platoon in center and Buck in right. Everyone calling for Carlos Gonzalez to come up seems to be forgetting that he’s slumping badly in the past few weeks. I don’t think it’s wise to needlessly promote someone with an .800 OPS. Sean Doolittle, on the other hand …
by Crosbino on May 17, 2008 10:38 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I just don't see why Emil Brown is the MAIN problem on a team that has averaged less than
2 runs a game in the last 8 games or so. I am not saying he is doing great, but he is the first name EVERYONE comes up with. I have defended Brown when he was hitting well with RISP, and knew if wasn’t going to last, but then, like now, noone else was driving them in. Brown isn’t doing it well now either, and noone, not even me believed it would last the whole season, but hoped it would continue until someone else picked up the slack. Now that noone is, Brown sucks, but was only lucky when he did. So what is the prognosis for the rest of the team. They all suck??/
by theblackpearl on May 17, 2008 12:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
HanNahan
I generally bemoan the profusion of Mr Sabermetric Sporks in the Scrabble ranks who don't know the meaning or usage of 50% of the words they use. -monkeyball
by JediLeroy on May 17, 2008 12:43 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't think we could/would trade Thomas
Because Toronto was picking up the rest of his contract, teams had no way of increasing their bid for him (short of offering to pay more than the Toronto contract, in which case (1) they’re crazy, and (2) they would have just taken him off waivers instead). That being the case, Frank essentially got to pick which team among the suitors he preferred, and he chose Oakland.
I would be surprised if he doesn’t have some sort of agreement will Billy Beane about what happens if we decide not to keep him, if not an actual no-trade clause then a gentlemen’s agreement. I don’t think we would trade Frank to anywhere he doesn’t want to go. If we no longer have use for him on the team, we’ll just let him go.
Come to think of it, I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s the same with Mike Sweeney. When Beane hires veterans for one year, he tends to do it on friendly terms with the understanding that they’ve earned the right to decide where they want to play in their last few years. Same idea as Piazza last year.
formerly known as mdl
by iglew on May 17, 2008 12:44 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
My two cents...
Cargon shouldn’t be with the big club until September. Let him play everyday where he is “above average” as opposed to bringing him into a situation where he is “below average”.
Buck will be back up by the end up June. I think he’ll get things straightened out.
Powell should stay in AAA at least until after the All-Star break. He’ll get more ABs.
Suzuki is NOT the long-term or mid-term solution to catch. He’s just not that good.
Why isn’t anyone talking about sending Barton down?
Emil Brown should’ve been DFA’d a month ago. It’s obvious he sucks.
The problem the A’s have is very simply: They don’t have any good hitters in the lineup. I’m not saying that a couple of them won’t “figure it out,” but I am saying that there is not one single good hitter in the the lineup.
"I'm not going to buy my kids an encyclopedia. Let them walk to school like I did." -Yogi Berra
by brenarlo on May 17, 2008 3:19 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
talent
Not a single good hitter in the line-up is harsh, but true. There is not a single guy I look forward to see in the batter’s box. The days of a Canseco, McGuire, Giambi, Tejada, Ricky etc.. The last excellent hitter the A’s had was Thomas of 2 years ago.
by BlueMoon on May 17, 2008 8:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't mind watching Ryan Sweeney bat. His development as a hitter interests me.
Crosby’s always an adventure, and Hannahan’s line drive swing/swing himself off his feet amuses me somewhat.
You’re right though at the moment we don’t have a fearsome hitter in the lineup that you’d go out of your way to see.
by OldhamA on May 17, 2008 9:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
But it's much more than that...
Obviously there’s not a feared hitter in the lineup. But is there any hitter that you would casually describe as “good”?
Thomas – Was good
M Sweeney – I guess maybe he’s ok… maybe good
R Sweeney – He’s supposed to be good
Barton – He will be good
Ellis – Sometimes he’s good
Cust – He’s probably the closest thing to a good hitter we have
Crosby, Hanahan, Suzuki, Murphy, Brown,Denorfia – No good.
"I'm not going to buy my kids an encyclopedia. Let them walk to school like I did." -Yogi Berra
by brenarlo on May 17, 2008 9:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well right now it's a mixture of misfits, has beens and kids. On the 'casually good'
scale nobody really qualifies (unless Thomas starts hitting some extra base knocks). Cust is the closest, but he’s in the misfit category and to some observers he’ll never be classed as a goos hitter due to his high k rate.
by OldhamA on May 17, 2008 9:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's not true that we don't have a single good hitter in the lineup
What’s true is that we don’t have a single great hitter in the lineup.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on May 17, 2008 9:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I guess it depends on what you call good...
For this conversation… I define good as “casually good”. Who are the good hitters?
"I'm not going to buy my kids an encyclopedia. Let them walk to school like I did." -Yogi Berra
by brenarlo on May 17, 2008 9:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
A's hottest hitter this past week is.......
9-24
Bobby Crosby.
And you’d send him to AAA? Pretty funny.
As to the more realistic choices, Hannahan’s not going anywhere until and unless Chavez shows he can produce again at the major league level and that he is injury free. Realistically i think Hannahan stays.
Which means either Murphy or Petit goes.
And if—and this is a big if—one keeps both Sweeney and Thomas—plus 6 other infielders and 2 catchers, well then only 4 OF slots remain. Buck and Gonzalez both up means Sweeney, Denorfia and Davis all depart…
unless Brown is dealt, which wouldn’t be the craziest notion. I actually think Gonzalez will stay in AAA until his presence is absolutely necessary—either because of the team’s standing, his development, or both. And the team’s standing could work in either direction—Gonzalez might become necessary because they stay in contention, or he his development curve might dictate a call-up if and when they fall out of contention.
My bottom line is that i can forsee little chance that, come the All-Star break, the following players are all on the 25 man roster: Chavez, Buck, Brown, Gonzalez, Thomas, Sweeney. At least one and perhaps two of that list won;t be here.
by madmongoose on May 18, 2008 8:10 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
There is no such thing as a hot hitter.
Seriously. Does not exist.
On top of which, Crosby’s process has never been worse. Even the homer announcers are talking about how far he’s standing from the plate now.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on May 18, 2008 9:37 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
More accurately,
If you read the chapter in the book that deals with streaks, you will see that if you only focus on the numbers, you can’t tell if someone truly is in a funk. To figure out if someone truly is or is not in a funk, you have to go beyond the numbers.
emphasis mine.
Also, putting aside streaks, Crosby is outproducing Murphy and Emil Brown. Optioning Crosby to gratify some Crosby hate would be stupid.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on May 18, 2008 10:26 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
PT and "hot hitter" =
Carl Everett and dinosaurs.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on May 18, 2008 10:31 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The certitude which you saberNazis spout this stuff is mind-boggling
Streaks happen, OK? sometimes they last a week, sometimes a month, and every now and then (for every player by definition has one of these) they pretty much hold up for an entire season. I don’t know which variety Crosby is in—but he’s clearly performing better at the plate, whatever you think about the “process”.
All I know is that Crosby—HR today, btw—ain’t that bad this year. And in this lineup—given his defensive value, why on earth would someone really believe that a) he should be optioned to AAA or that b) the A’s would give more than a nanosecond of thought about doing just that. I mean sometimes you guys have to step back and ask yourself a very simple question: “was I the one wacked out enough to write that?” “And if so, maybe I should reconsider”.
I mean it’s great to be provocative and all but I think it might be advisable to be provocative within reason.
And as a final thought—how mucn trade value would Crosby have after two months in AAA?
by madmongoose on May 18, 2008 5:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
how much Trade Value does Crosby have now?
by Zonis on May 18, 2008 5:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
fair-- just fair
he is still a SS under the age of 30 who can field the position.
If he stays healthy in the bigs this year—it goes up; if his OPS comes back to, say, 750 or so, it goes up again. Playing in Sacramento does nothing to assist either of those elements.
by madmongoose on May 18, 2008 6:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Considering that Adam Everett got non-tendered last offseason,
I’m guessing it’s not that high.
I suppose there might still be 2 or 3 people (hello, Mr. Gammons) who think his bat is salvageable. If one of them is an opposing GM, maybe the A’s can work something out.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on May 18, 2008 11:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The difference is that Everett has the reputation of being an awful hitter
It’s well deserved, but his defense saves enough runs to make him an average player overall.
Crosby is still viewed as having upside (not here, of course, but around the league)
by mikev on May 19, 2008 7:53 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
First of all ...
the term saberNazi is tremendously offensive. PaulThomas has never murdered millions of innocent civilians for being Jewish, Roma, crippled or simply being a citizen of the wrong country at the wrong time. Adolf Hitler has never expressed any opinion what-so-ever about the merits or demerits of Bobby Crosby.
Second of all - no shit, streaks happen. Go flip a coin a hundred times - I’ll bet you a mortgage payment that it doesn’t alternate perfectly between heads and tells. Double our nothing says that it does not end up exactly 50-50. If you hit tails 60 out of 100 would you take a bet at anything worse than 50-50 odds that the next flip will be tails? if so … well I’m not going to say what I would like to say because I’m pissed off about the issue related to point one and so I’ll just go with no comment.
Third of all—PaulThomas was not the one advocating for Crosby to be demoted. Zonis was. Zonis is not a stat head.
Fourth of all … I should probably just hit post before I go from being offended to being offensive …
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on May 18, 2008 10:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why do you assume that
coin flipping is analogous to baseball? Are you also going to use poker as an analogy?
Especially since most coin flippers are not highly trained at coin flipping, and most coin flippers do not flip a coin with a particular outcome as a goal?
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on May 19, 2008 7:44 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hmmm
I plead ignorance of whether or not Zonis or Paul Thomas are the true “statheads”. So i stand corrected if I lumped one of them into the term “SaberNazi” incorrectly.
But as to the reference in general, I think it is pretty much part of the standard discourse these days to term someone who seems rigid in their beliefs/actions and also patrols a given locale—whether a Disney theme park, school playground, airport security line, or internet site—with the fervor associated with making sure people don’t stray from those beliefs/actions—a “Nazi”- and everyone understands that in no way does the writer or commentator imply that the most heinous aspects of Nazidom- i.e, the Holocaust—are part of the mix. It’s just a joke about their willingness to make sure none of the rest of us stray from an acceptable boundary of behavior—or in this case, thought.
So if I truly offended you, devo—or anyone else, for that matter—I apologize. But I would be as shocked as Claude Rains observing gambling if that were really true. lighten up, brother!!
by madmongoose on May 19, 2008 9:11 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not even sure I'm a "stathead"
I doubt I’m good enough with math to actually warrant the description.
That being said, this stuff is frigging Probability 101. When it comes to hitters, short-term past performance simply does not predict future performance. At all. This is an observed fact.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on May 19, 2008 9:44 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know that you are not alone in your use of this offensive term.
But I am quite serious that I do find it offensive and am committed to wiping it out. You are making light of the murder of millions of innocent people. I know it is not your intention and I know you are far from alone in doing it—but that is what you are doing and it is wrong.
FYI, I also object to the widespread misuse of the term rape.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on May 19, 2008 11:40 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's cool
Did you ever watch Hogan’s Heroes? Or see a comedian make light of the current pope? Or Kurt Waldheim? Or anyone German?
did you ever laugh? Is this simply a topic that you believe should never be mentioned in anything but its most horrible connotation? I’m just curious. I hate with every bone in my body what the Nazis did. I’ve been to Yad Veshem and the Holocaust museum and been incredibly moved. I just saw a production of The Diary of Anne Frank—more than 60 years after her death—and its meaning hadn’t faded a bit.
But I can still laugh. Or find reason to see a bit of Nazi in all of us—myself included—without going to that other level. But if you want to really get philosophical here, i don’t think the Germans stand alone. A variety of things peculiar to that place and time produced Hitler, the Third Reich and the Final Solution, but deep down I do think humans and the political/military/legal institutions they produce are eminently capable of repeating that evil—and have proved it ever since (Rwanda, China, Russia, Darfur). So in my own view we’re better off keeping it “in play”, including humor and sarcasm.
We disagree on this one, friend.
by madmongoose on May 19, 2008 12:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Never watched Hogan's Heroes ...
a bit before my time …
The point is that comparing PT to a Nazi because he’s rigid is like comparing this guy:
to this guy:

because they both have a beard.
I have no problem with humor … there’s a story I like to tell … might shed some light on why this is all such a big deal. My grandfather died in Auschwitz … poor fucker got drunk and fell off his guard tower …
The problem isn’t that you’re using the term “Nazi” it’s that you’re misusing the term “Nazi” PT is a rigid ideologue (for purpose of discussion, anyway). PT also has a bad mustache (ok, now I’m just completely making things up). But the key difference is, PT is not a mass murderer (Nico’s goats don’t count …).
(apologies to PaulThomas for having to be a central figure in this discussion)
If you want to make a joke about Darfur, something along the lines of, ‘isn’t it so funny how they’re committing genocide’ ... I might question your comedic tastes—but I wouldn’t criticize you for it, since you would be shedding light on a great tragedy.
That’s the critical difference I see between the use of the word Nazi (and the word rape) in casual conversation and why I find it so offensive.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on May 19, 2008 1:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Got it
I could assail your logic, but there’s no point anymore. We choose to disagree. I agree with you about rape, btw.
by madmongoose on May 19, 2008 1:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ok, so now you've piqued my curiousity ...
Why the difference between rape and Nazis?
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on May 19, 2008 1:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
At the risk of bringing Potter Stewart into this
and his infamous comment about pornography, I believe that many, and possibly most, of the times the term “rape” is used, it describes a violent act that is thus similar to the incredibly violent act of a person violating another’s unwilling body in a sexual fashion. (Quick story—was once waiting to be on a jury in a civil case. We—the jury pool—were called on to answer questions about what was obviously a sexual harassment or sexual misconduct case, but we were all thrown out when the defendant’s attorney made the mistake of laughing at a 6 foot three guy saying he too had been the victim of a sexual assault. It was obviously a gay relationship and it caused other prospective jurors to say that their view of the case had now been tainted.)
But I think Nazi—given that there were all sorts of Nazis—from evil leaders like Hitler and Goebbels to sadists like the guy Ralph Fiennes played in Schindler’s List to soldiers and civilians who simply went along at varying degrees of culpability—doesn’t have as immediate and intense a connotation. Every rapist is by definition someone who should rot in a cell for many, many years, in my book. I don’t feel the same way about every Nazi and there are differing degrees of Nazi behavior—whereas the act of rape is fundamental and the same every single time. Not every act of every act of every Nazi was the murder of an innocent human being. Every rapist violates.
by madmongoose on May 19, 2008 1:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
But I fully admit
that I am trying to make an intellectual difference between two feelngs that are probably pretty visceral in nature—so take it FWIW.
by madmongoose on May 19, 2008 1:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
When you look at anything at that large of a scale, there'll inevitably be some gray areas ...
I don’t think many would find fault in using the term ‘rape’ in ‘Rape of Nanking’—but there were certainly more than a few Japanese soldiers involved who were no more deserving of rotting in a prison cell than your typical Nazi soldier.
Clearly when you’re using the term ‘Nazi’ like you did you are using it in a very specific way—I think we can agree by Nazi you don’t mean 1930-40s era German who worked a morally questionably job so that he could feed his family. Given your context, that wouldn’t make sense. I think you probably mean ‘autocratic political party that killed millions of innocent people’ ... As I said, though, my problem with the context that you used it in is that the ‘killed millions of innocent people’ part is not at all a parallel to the comparison being drawn, while it was the most critical and tragic aspect of the Nazis’ impact on history.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on May 19, 2008 2:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I hear your views
And I guess we just disagree.
by madmongoose on May 19, 2008 2:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't agree to that ...
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on May 19, 2008 3:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The only relative of mine
who I can authenticate that actually served in the Civil War on either side was, no kidding, a prison guard at Andersonville.
My family history is not an illustrious one…
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on May 19, 2008 1:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
My family all immigrated to America post Civil War ...
but the Germans all came pre-WWII, so my hands are clean … well, except in that I’ve been oppressing myself for centuries … (in addition to German, I’m English and Irish …)
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on May 19, 2008 1:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
My Uncle
was Gargamel. you don’t even want to know what he did to those Smurfs when he finally caught them.
You don't win friends with salad.
by tresselfan on May 20, 2008 2:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I apologize, in advance
For plagiarizing your story
You don't win friends with salad.
by tresselfan on May 20, 2008 1:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
To MadMongooses Comment That Is..
This whole Hot Streaks and Clutch Hitters dont exist thing is fine as a theory,and its a theory that many like-minded individuals can agree with based on whatever sabermetric they want to use. But to present such a statement as a fact is somewhat ridiculous to me..
Pat Burrell started this year ridiculously hot and now he’s cooled down, further more Burrell has consistently had months of hot hitting and months of horrible slumps over his career. During the last week Ryan Howard made a slight adjustment to his swing and he’s been hitting the ball better, leading to increased confidence at the plate, leading to better results.
And if you want to tell me that confidence is not a factor for a hitter, or that statisticians know more about hitting ability than actual baseball players, well, those statements are in my mind too far fetched to really even argue
A's Fan in Philly
by Duby on May 19, 2008 10:54 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Saying "I think Howard will start hitting better because he made an adjustment to his swing"
is in no sense equivalent to saying “I think Chipper Jones will keep hitting .400 because he’s “hot”/hitting .400 right now.”
The first one is a perfectly reasonable baseball-analytic statement. The second is a probabilistic fallacy.
This whole Hot Streaks and Clutch Hitters dont exist thing is fine as a theory,and its a theory that many like-minded individuals can agree with based on whatever sabermetric they want to use. But to present such a statement as a fact is somewhat ridiculous to me.
Replace “hot streaks” with “evolution” and you have exactly mirrored the “arguments” of creationists. Yes, it’s “just a theory.” It happens to be a theory that’s supported by all the evidence we’ve got.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on May 19, 2008 11:14 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
So because I believe in Hot Streaks
I’m a Creatonist? Who’s making the more far fetched statement here?
Pat Burrell in 2007:
April – .292
May – .179
June – .129
July – .435
August – .290
September – .209
When I made my previous statement about his streakiness, I hadn’t actually looked at his Monthly Splits. From what I see and from watching the actual games, I think I can make the case that Pat Burrell was “Hot” in July… That combined with the fact that he repeatedly spoke about his increased confidence at the plate, and not to mention the fact that if you watch him hit, you can in my opinion, identify his confidence or lack thereof from his day to day at bats gives me “evidence” that hot streaks exist.
That coupled with the thousands of baseball games I’ve watched, baseball players I’ve talked to and general knowledge of atheletes and how psychology affects atheletes and actually every human being gives me more reasons than I need, to accept what most fans/commentators/players believe about the game.
Your belief is fine, and may be backed up by a spreadsheet somewhere, but to expect everybody to subscribe to your way of thinking, and eschew conventional wisdom (or what you might call pre-historic thinking) is a bit over-reaching in my opinion
A's Fan in Philly
by Duby on May 19, 2008 11:53 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I actually already knew his numbers would look something like that
And my question is… so what? OK, so he hit well last July. And? As devo pointed out, streaks occur in any sample from a random generator of outcomes (like a coin, or a hitter). So what? They have no meaning.
Pat Burrell strikes me as an unusual hitter in that he has great natural talent but is prone to long periods where either his swing is mechanically “off,” or he’s not taking the right approach at the plate, or both. Those are characteristics that can’t be observed from the mere fact that he hit .209 for a month.
I find it a bit odd that I’m defending sabermetrics by invoking traditional scouting, but it’s true—the only way to tell if Burrell is likely to hit well in the near future is to observe him hitting with clean form in the present. Just saying that he hit .300 last week is bunkum—he could just as well have gotten lucky and had some bloops drop in.
As for the creationist thing, I didn’t say you yourself were a creationist, I said you were using the same argument with regard to streaks (or rather the lack thereof) that creationists use with regard to evolution.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on May 19, 2008 12:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd like to think that I'm an open minded fellow.
I try not to take anything as gospel … and I even include in that the Gospels …
But in order to take something from opinion to being theory or, more so, to fact, rational ideas should be able to be backed up by empirical data.
Players think they’re hot - that’s super. Players are wrong about a lot of things - just ask Joe Morgan.
This is not to say that players do not change their approach at the plate and, thus, change their effective talent level (either for better or worse)—but this is not making them hot or cold, it makes them better or worse.
The question is whether or not performance begets performance—whether the fact that a hitter did or did not get a hit today makes him more or less likely to get a hit tomorrow. (Simply the act of getting the hit, not any element of improved process). There’s no evidence to support the idea that it does.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on May 19, 2008 12:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well when a hitter hits .600 for a week or month, what do you call it?
Lucky? a streak? seeing the ball better? What is the difference in calling it hot?
by theblackpearl on May 19, 2008 12:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Call it what you want ...
just don’t assume that it means anything. Sure he’s hot - whatever - it’s more than likely simply a case of normal distribution, you should not count on it having any greater meaning than that and you should not count on it lasting.
If a guy’s real skill level is that of a .250 hitter but he has batted .450 over the month of May and it’s May 31st, you should not pinch hit him for the .300 hitter who has batted .300 in the month of May.
Normal distributions with periods of better and lesser production is inevitable. Players will definitely go through streaks. It’s the nature of probability. No one disagrees with that. Few care what you choose to call it. The question is whether or not that means anything more than nomral distribution.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on May 19, 2008 1:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Okay So....
Jayson Werth (and I apologize for the heavy Philly-based analogies.. but it is what it is) Jayson Werth starts against left handers for the Phillies…
On Thursday, he had 4 RBI and on Friday, he hit 3 HR and 8 RBI… The next day on Saturday the Phillies had the option of starting Jayson Werth or Shane Victorino in Centerfield, they started Werth based on the opinion that he was “hotter”.. ie) 12 RBI in 2 days… than Victorino was at the time, even though the starting pitcher that day was Right Handed.
So by your set of beliefs, the facts that the starting pitcher is right handed, Victorino is a switch hitter, Werth is a right handed hitter, and Victorino has better career splits vs RHP, these should be the only factors considered when one makes up a lineup card? Werths 12 RBI in 2 days, and seemingly “locked in” approach at the plate should be completely disregarded as just a few occassions of luck?
And furthermore, you would also say that when Werth hit 3 Home Runs in 3 consecutive at bats.. that the fact that he hit a HR in his first at bat had absolutely zero predicative nature on the results of his next at bat?
I’m sorry but when Werth comes up for the third time, and Gary Matthews Sr. says he’s locked in, not bailing on the ball, his long swing is shorter, and right now given the score of the game, he’s gonna try to hit a third Home Run, I tend to put more credence in a former MLB 3-hole hitter than I do someone studying stats, especially when the former major leaguer turned out to be right
A's Fan in Philly
by Duby on May 19, 2008 1:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
ABs within a game have some predictive value ...
the first two of Werth’s homers came off of the same pitcher who had a terrible day, allowing 8 runs in 3 innings. The third came off of Jesse Litsch, who, while a respectable pitcher, is prone to the long ball and was making his first relief appearance of his career and who likely would not have been in there had Purcey not allowed the first two homers to Werth—those first two ABs, thus setting the stage for a more favorable matchup in his third AB.
As far as who should have been playing on Saturday, well Werth went hitless … and is now ‘mired’ in an 0 for 8 mini-slump …
And like I said - players can do things differently, change their approach, shorten their swing, whatever … that doesn’t make them hot - it makes them better players.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on May 19, 2008 2:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks!
As I was reading that last post I was hoping that they started werth and that he went 0 for.
You don't win friends with salad.
by tresselfan on May 20, 2008 2:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
No problem ... he's no 0 for 9 with 6 Ks since that last HR ...
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on May 20, 2008 3:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well see, here's the thing,
If you are going to say that the Phillies coaches believe that Werth or whomever, is in a hot streak, because they noticed that his bat is more explosive than normal, because they time his bat, and noticed that his bat velocity is higher than normal, the coaches might very well be correct.
The problem arises when you say that Werth, or whomever, is 5 for 10 with 4 RBI, ergo he’s hot, then no, you’re wrong. Just looking at the numbers, you cannot tell whether a hitter is hot or not.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on May 19, 2008 3:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
"It happens to be a theory that’s supported by all the evidence we’ve got."
It happens to be a theory that’s supported by all the evidence that statisticians, who have no access to the players, their training and medical records, the coaches, the managers, have.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on May 19, 2008 12:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If it's not supported by the outcomes?
Why does the rest matter?
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on May 19, 2008 12:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
My point is
basically that Tango quote I posted upthread, to wit:
If you read the chapter in the book that deals with streaks, you will see that if you only focus on the numbers, you can’t tell if someone truly is in a funk. To figure out if someone truly is or is not in a funk, you have to go beyond the numbers.
My point is that you DON”T KNOW that it is not supported by the outcome, when all you’re looking at are the numbers. Let’s say a guys puts up a 1200 OPS for 2 weeks, and then a 500 OPS right after that. You don’t know why either occured by just looking at the 1200 OPS and the 500 OPS . It might be “random” variation. It might be that he slipped and fell in the bath, and is now nursing a really sore hip, and a slightly sore lower back, both of which are disrupting his swing mechanics, hence the 500 OPS.
It might be that when he was putting up that 1200 OPS, he was in the best physiological condition of his life: the hitting coach might have noticed that his bat speed during batting practice was faster than normal. His bat was more explosive, his max rate of force development with the bat was higher than normal. The strength coach might have noticed that he was tossing around weights, that he normally struggles with, like toys, in the weight room.
It might be that, he started tossing around too much weight in the weight room, because he felt manly and macho, thus pushing himself into an overtrained state, resulting in the 500 OPS.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on May 19, 2008 3:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I see what you're saying ...
I’m fine with that …
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on May 19, 2008 3:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Here's a tip:
If you say “has no predictive value” instead of “does not exist”, you’ll avoid a lot of pointless arguments.
formerly known as mdl
by iglew on May 19, 2008 9:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
CALERO
You all better come to the realizationt that Calero has only 2 possilbe outcomes with the A’s as long as he remains on the DL. 1) He is brought up to the big league team. 2) he is cut outright, as you can only be on injury rehab for 30 days. Perhaps the A’s can try to cut him and get him throught waivers and option him, however I am not sure if he has the right of refusal. The only thing in the A’s favor at that point is that he may accept it so that he does not lose his guaranteed salary. It will be interesting if Calero pulls a Keith Ginter and decides that the money is better than an opportunity elsewehere.
by jasonlbe on May 19, 2008 1:21 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Keith Ginter.
Wow, did you really just say that name? HaHa. I wonder where that guy is now…
What about Barry?
"Barry who?" Forst said, and I felt like I was in the middle of a knock-knock joke.
by KMoAsFan on May 20, 2008 4:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
*
- = If he is still alive. * = Harden.
Did anyone else notice that, or did it just crack me up?
by passionately objective on May 20, 2008 2:51 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Moves...
C R. Bowen -> Black hole?
"This is NOT rebuilding. Billy Beane reloaded." -rev
by ST on May 21, 2008 3:05 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I believe that transaction has already taken place
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on May 21, 2008 3:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

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