Taking a Step Back From the Ledge: The A's Offense
by PaulThomas on May 15, 2008 2:14 PM PDT
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PrintAll content from this post has been removed in accordance with my decision to leave Athletics Nation. It is my sad duty to report that I no longer wish to create content for, or share it with, this site as currently run. I cannot, in good conscience, square the site's policies with what I consider to be the bare minimum requirements for free and fair discussion, and I have no wish to engage in unfree and unfair discussion. Goodbye.
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Great Post
All I know is that when I watch the A’s batting it makes me wanna puke.
When will then be now? Soon.
Good post, the numbers show some interesting stuff
But how can the offense get better and not score more runs? (Note: I’m sorta playing devil’s advocate here) I mean, the goal is to score runs so who cares what the numbers say? If the team continues to score the same amount of runs then the offense is not any better despite having a sexier OPS or OBP or whatever.
Basically the numbers added across the board, the A's shouldn't have scored as
many runs as they have.
by theblackpearl on May 15, 2008 3:52 PM PDT up reply actions
I understand what you're saying
But why not just say that based on the roster they shouldn’t have won this many games then?
Because based on the roster, they SHOULD have won this many games
or rather, based on the roster, they should have scored this many runs (I didn’t handle pitching in this article).
It’s just that they scored the runs by getting lucky instead of by hitting to what we expected them to do.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
“I’d rather be lucky than good.” ~Lefty Gomez
I've come to the conclusion that the two most important things in life are good friends and a good bullpen.
"I'd rather get lucky than be good."
-Kaweahkaweah
"I don't know half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve."
--Bilbo Baggins
by kaweahkaweah on May 16, 2008 10:27 AM PDT up reply actions
Difference between process and outcome
If you have a bad process and get lucky, the outcome may be the same as if you have a good process and get unlucky—but unlike luck, skill doesn’t even out to neutral over time.
You may then ask the obvious followup question (namely, “where do I get off claiming that the A’s process is going to improve?”), to which the answer is that while skill doesn’t even out to neutral, it’s certainly not perfectly reflected by players’ performance at all times, either. Ryan Howard isn’t a sub-Mendoza hitter. There’s regression to the mean here too—even though that mean is a dynamic one and an extended slump (or an extended tear) will “pull” our estimate of a player’s true talent level down (or up) somewhat. Not by that much, however, typically.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
OTOH, if the offensive malaise worsens
you could change your sig line without missing a beat:
Your 2008 Athletics: Its Nothing PersonnelThere is an A in Whimsy.
by FreeSeatUpgrade on May 15, 2008 4:17 PM PDT up reply actions
True.
They key is that we are using stats to estimate a players true talent level and trying to gage his future based on this.
I don’t believe in luck- I just think that sometimes players get hot or cold and that it’s a natural cycle. The problem with trying to base day-to-day decisions on long term stats is that this ebb and flow isn’t taken into consideration. Yes, Ryan Howard is going to come around and probably go through a crazy hot streak, but trying to predict what he’ll do over the few games based on his career stats is foolish. However, I do think it’s safe to say that over the course of the year his stats will rise to a respectable level and it’s probable that he’ll produce above his career norms for the remainder of the season to compensate for the slow start- AKA regression (or progression) to the mean.
Oaktoon?
But, seriously, regression / progression to the mean does not mean that a player will produce ABOVE his career norms for the remainder of the season to compensate for the slow start. Regression to the mean does not mean “karma”.
All it means is that “it’s safe to say that over the course of the year his stats will rise to a respectable level”, ie over the remainder of the season, it’s safe to say that he should produce at around career levels.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
Nice work Paul
At the risk of damaging your burgeoning legal career, I hope that you take the time to write more diaries/fanposts this season.
by notsellingjeans on May 15, 2008 4:28 PM PDT reply actions
Thanks
Lucky for you all (well, OK, lucky for the indeterminate fraction of AN that actually enjoys this sort of thing), the semester doesn’t start until September…
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
we'll just have to wait 2 years
He’ll have plennnnnnnnnty of time his third year.
We're going to knock balls out of the country's park, for the home team, which is America. @('.')@
I hope by that you mean "3L is easy" and not "you're going to flunk out in your 2nd year"...
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
the former, for sure
And ditto nsj’s compliments on this piece.
We're going to knock balls out of the country's park, for the home team, which is America. @('.')@
3L is easy
So my school wasn’t the only place that uses the funky “1L, 2L, 3L” terminology, I guess. Somewhat reassuring, I guess.
3rd year is definitely the easiest in terms of the schoolwork itself. The problem is everyone is doing all sorts of other stuff in hopes of finding jobs, like working of firms, legal aid, whatever. So in a way it’s better, but in some ways worse.
Law school sucked
but the 3L year was not as bad as the other years.
"I don't know half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve."
--Bilbo Baggins
by kaweahkaweah on May 16, 2008 10:49 AM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, that caught my attention, too
but not in a “burn him at the stake” way – more in a “Jesus, in 20 years when he’s a judge it would sure be scary to look up and see him on the bench when i was the defendant” way.
I've always dreamed of being a hanging judge
[... Just kidding. If anything I would probably be more favorable to the defense than an average person.]
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
I'm sure you see
yourself as intrinsically sympathetic, but…you know…you have that whole “let’s look at the evidence” thing goin’ on….How can that be good for a guy like me?
I also have that whole "beyond a reasonable doubt" thing going on
and unlike 95% of the population, I actually take that phrase seriously.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
I think a more useful stat for the A's than
“runs/game” (mean) might be median – what is the number of runs that the A’s have exceeded 50% of the time, but not achieved 50% of the time.
In a distribution such as:
0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 4, 10, 14, 15
the average of 50 runs in 9 games is 5.6 runs/game, but the median is 3.0. As the sample grows larger, the median is less of a random number and more of an indicator of what you can expect on “non outlier” days – which are the games where you get blanked or explode for 14 runs.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
If I understand correctly, however, mean runs scored is a better predictor of future performance
than median runs scored.
Again, someone correct me if I’m wrong about this. It’s intuitively logical, though, because teams can’t really control the distribution of when they score their runs. You can’t save up some hitting one day and trade it in for some hitting the next day (although to a limited extent, you CAN do this with pitching, which is why closers don’t pitch the 9th inning of blowouts).
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
I would think that the more unevenly
runs were distributed, the less useful mean becomes and the more useful median might be – even though in general, mean is far more useful. It just seems that a lot of the A’s “success” in the runs scored stats comes from a few double-digit games, in which they essentially win a game several times over. This will always be the case to some degree, but with the A’s this year it seems to be exaggerated so it might be more illuminating to throw out the outliers and look at the mean from there, or see how the median compares to the mean.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Run distribution impacts how a team performs vis a vis its Pythagorean record
so that teams that win by a lot and lose close games will tend to underperform their Pythagorean record (case in point: the 2006 Indians), and conversely teams that do the opposite will overperform (see: 2007 Diamondbacks). But since Pythagorean record is more predictive than actual record, using raw offense instead of adjusting it for blowouts seems like the stronger analytic method.
What I find interesting is this question: do certain KINDS of offenses tend more strongly toward “bunched-up” scoring? And can you thus predict those offenses to do a little worse than their Pythagorean differential would imply? I have some ideas, but no data to back them up.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
The mean is a better predictor of the median going forward
The median (or rather the actual distribution) is more important in terms of winning games, but looking at the past median will tell you less about the future median than looking at the mean (especially since the median will always be 3 or 4, which doesn’t tell you anything…) I’d guess you’re right that they have a weird run distribution this year, with more high-run games and more 0/1 run games than you would expect based on their total runs. It doesn’t make any more sense to throw out the high run games than it does to throw out the low run games.
Last year the A’s helped themselves by having a lot of games in the middle range of runs and relatively few at the extremes. They haven’t this year. No reason to expect one or the other.
Better still is just looking at the component performances, as PT did.
The A's colors are green and gold.
I dunno - seems like carefully crunching
a ton of numbers and then shouting “The median’s 3 points again!!!!!” is just the kind of analysis Cindi would consider useful.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Good stuff, Paul ...
btw, where will you be matriculating this fall?
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
Yo no se
We’re down to 5 possible schools: Hastings, UCLA, USC, Loyola Marymount and Virginia. Hastings is probably the most likely, as that whole “rent free living” thing is pretty attractive. UCLA and UVA are unlikely as I’m on the waiting list for both of them.
I should know by the end of the month, I think.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Each of those schools is excellent
and I know a number of Hastings grads (including my wife) who have gone on to fascinating careers.
by Ray of Lite on May 15, 2008 10:46 PM PDT up reply actions
171
Would have been higher if I had practiced it more, though. I ran out of time on one section and probably missed 4 or 5 questions unnecessarily.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Apparently my sense of paranoia is not sufficiently well developed
Why not?
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
for the first few weeks
some people will try to figure out how much smarter they are. A lot of schools have a pockets of students that are hyper competative and in your business at all times. They (thae bad ones) will try to explaoit any information about you in anyway possible. For example, If they feel you are smart, they will try to for study groups with you, if they think you are dumb, they will try to prevent others from helping you. Its completely childish.
The good news is, there will be people that aren’t like that, trust worthy and such. None of them will ask you for credentials such as exam scores.
Remember part of being an advocate for your client is knowing when to release information to their advantage. In School, you are the client,. AS such be careful about what you say about Paul Thomas.
THis sound more paranoind than I meant it. (PS Great post)
Wow, conspiracy theorist to the maximum. I was just curious what LSAT score earned a spot on the waiting list at UCLA. I recently took a Kaplan practice LSAT and scored a 161. I am still not sure if I want to go to law school right after I earn my degree. I am currently looking into working for the Public Defenders Office as an investigator. Hopefully you get into the school of your choice. Thanks for answering my question.
Eveland rocks! Eveland rocks! Somewhere Drew Carey just smiled.
USC
I used to think that going to USC Law School would have been the coolest thing ever, just so that I could take classes from Chemerinsky and Whitebread. The former is now gone, but the later still there. Expensive, though.
Of course, these days when someone asks me what I think of law school, my typical answer is simply, “don’t go.”
law school q's
PT you’re in my wheelhouse with legal education. You have some great options here. Congratulations! My immediate advice for choosing among them: VISIT!
I've come to the conclusion that the two most important things in life are good friends and a good bullpen.
I was just at UVA last weekend
...unfortunately.
School seemed fine, but my God is it ever hard to get there and back. I spent about 2 hours in pure panic mode when I realized that I was stuck in Charlottesville without a hotel room and with no way that I knew of to get back to DC. Eventually it “worked out,” but I ended up spending probably over a hundred dollars unnecessarily to salvage the situation.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
UVA
For what it’s worth, I know quite a few UVA grads and they all LOVED their time there. I find it actually a little weird how much they love that school. I mean . . . it’s law school. I could just be jaded and cynical from having to spend 3 friggin years going to UC-tenderloin . . .
A kitten bats around a ball of yarn but what he's really saying is, "You know I can't knit, motherf'er." That is one foul mouthed kitten. - Mitch Hedberg (RIP)
{snerk}
“UC-Tenderloin”
We're going to knock balls out of the country's park, for the home team, which is America. @('.')@
UC T-Loin
Believe it or not, the school would not print up hoodies to sell in the bookstore that said “UC-Tenderloin.” I woulda bought one, for sure. It becomes a point of pride at some point. I’m pretty sure that point is the point following the extreme depression that comes along with realizing you go to Hastings . . .
A kitten bats around a ball of yarn but what he's really saying is, "You know I can't knit, motherf'er." That is one foul mouthed kitten. - Mitch Hedberg (RIP)
2005 Hastings Grad
You should definitely go with UCLA or UVA if you get off the waiting list, assuming you are looking to go into BigLaw. Life is difficult for about 75% of the Hastings grads. Though with your LSAT, assuming you put the effort in, you should do well at Hastings. I liked it there, but it’s very stressful, much moreso than the higher ranked schools. The on-campus recruiting process at Hastings about the most stressful thing in the world (maybe an overstatement, but not by much). Grades are so important at Hastings, this point cannot be overstressed. At UCLA and UVA you choose the employers you want to interview with, at the others, including Hastings, they choose you. This difference alone is hugely important. Luckily I was top of the class at Hastings, so things worked out, but many of my friends were not as lucky, including my fiance, and for them things are very hard. I would recommend not going to law school over going to Loyola. I’m not kidding. Unless it’s free, that’s a very bad idea. I’d be happy to discuss further, if you had any questions. And lastly, good luck. I hope you’ve really thought this through. I know a lot of unhappy lawyers.
A kitten bats around a ball of yarn but what he's really saying is, "You know I can't knit, motherf'er." That is one foul mouthed kitten. - Mitch Hedberg (RIP)
"I know a lot of unhappy lawyers."
But that’s the deal society makes with lawyers: y’all get to run everything, but you’re not allowed to be happy.
We're going to knock balls out of the country's park, for the home team, which is America. @('.')@
As a third year at a big law firm
I don’t run a damn thing. Thankfully.
A kitten bats around a ball of yarn but what he's really saying is, "You know I can't knit, motherf'er." That is one foul mouthed kitten. - Mitch Hedberg (RIP)
Loyola isn't, quite, free
but it’s definitely cheap…
That being said, it’s not a likely destination at this point. Basically it would require a combination of not-getting-in and/or firehosing on financial aid from the other four schools.
I’m not in this for the big-firm game, I’ll tell you that much. I really don’t care about the money. I mean, it would be nice if I made a nice salary, but the reason why I’m in this is because law is about the only job (other than REALLY dicey ones like academia or game design) that I think I could actually stand doing for 20 years. Well, I suppose I could stand medicine too, but that would practically require me to totally redo my undergrad work… I think that bridge has been burnt already.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Debt
Debt is a big driver for most of us at the big firms. When you come out of school with between $120-$200k in debt, you can’t really scrape by on a job that pays $65k (even if in most instances that’s a decent salary). So, if you can keep you debt load low, life will be much better. My fiance and I carry a combined education debt of more than $300k, which basically necessitates at least one of us doing the biglaw thing for a decent amount of years. I will say, I actually do enjoy my job, but I think I lucked out in that I work at a firm that is really a decent place for what it is and I’m doing exactly the kind of work I wanted to do coming out of school. That’s a rare combo and I’m pretty lucky.
I’m with you on the law school or bust idea. It was the only thing I really considered, but I really should have done more research and put more thought into it. Coming out of a not quite top tier school like Hastings with the kind of debt it took to get through was risky to say the least. Luckily, I did well, otherwise I’d be an attorney that ate top Ramen everynight.
A kitten bats around a ball of yarn but what he's really saying is, "You know I can't knit, motherf'er." That is one foul mouthed kitten. - Mitch Hedberg (RIP)
That's the key thing about Hastings though
The debt load is much less fierce there than it would be elsewhere.
I actually just got my financial aid offer from Hastings. Eyeballing it, it looks like if I go there I will graduate with a debt of about $50,000, which is pretty manageable. A few more back of the envelope calculations… and I end up with something like $9,000 a year for ten years including my leftover undergrad loans. That’s not all that bad.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
That sounds manageable
If you can get through Hastings with only $50k, you’ll be in pretty good shape. You can consolidate all your federal loans (undergrad, if any, and law) and pay them off over 30 years. Depending on the interest rate, this is the way to go. Mine are under 3% over 30 years. With the way inflation is, by the end I think they’ll be sending me money at that rate. Living at home really keeps costs down, that’s for sure.
As for the advice above from Future Ed . . . it sounds like his experience was much, much different than mine. Hastings is generally regarded as one of the most, if not most, competitive law schools, due to the tight, strict curve, and the top of the class requirement to land biglaw jobs. That being said, I didn’t see the kind of stuff he describes. More likely, if you end up in a study group it will be with people from your legal writing class that you get along with, cuz it’s a small group, as opposed to the big pit lecture classes. I never had to give out my LSAT to study with people.
A kitten bats around a ball of yarn but what he's really saying is, "You know I can't knit, motherf'er." That is one foul mouthed kitten. - Mitch Hedberg (RIP)
I ain't consolidating my undergrad loans...
they’re interest free.
:p
Of course, nowadays a lot of schools are eliminating loans altogether. I was born a few years too soon.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
A lot of private law schools
Have $$$ to give away for scholarships. I know USF did: they offered to give me a scholarship covering about 70% of the tuition, provided I maintained a “B” average. It actually would have been cheaper for me to go there instead of UCD.
It’s a damned shame that tuition has gotten so expensive at the UC law schools. This is a terrible situation for the legal system in California because it ensures that fewer students will be interested in careers in public service working for the government or non-profits. How can students choose such careers then they are faced with such enormous debts?
"I don't know half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve."
--Bilbo Baggins
by kaweahkaweah on May 16, 2008 10:47 AM PDT up reply actions
big firms
I would recommend this article to anyone thinking of law school, particularly anyone thinking of possibly going into working at a large firm (which it sounds like you’re not).
http://seoulover.blogs.com/westlaw/files/being_a_happy_lawyer.pdf
I was assigned it as part of a class, and one of the best (although scariest) things I’ve read about lawyering. I cannot recommend it highly enough. It’s well worth the long read.
Other advice:
- If you have ANY thought of wanting to work at a big firm, go to the “name” schools, as they aren’t an option for small-school grads (unless you’re top 5 and law review editor, essentially)
- Take the scholarships!! I made it through without much debt, and paid it off within 2 years, but I was lucky, went to a state school, worked my ass off as a law clinic director for a tuition waiver one year, and had helpful parents. On the other hand, I married into $130,000 of private law school debt. So yeah, that’ll suck for about 10 more years.
- Get to know the right people - especially the right professors - at school. It’s incredible what being on the good side of the right professor can do for someone. This was a mistake I made. Profs liked me, but not enough to cold-call someone and ask them to give me a job.
I pity you
UC Davis School of Law, Class of 2001
"I don't know half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve."
--Bilbo Baggins
by kaweahkaweah on May 16, 2008 10:30 AM PDT up reply actions
Is there truth in the statement that UC Davis School of law yields politicians, whereas McGeorge School of Law yields moneymakers?
Eveland rocks! Eveland rocks! Somewhere Drew Carey just smiled.
I don't think so
Off the top of my head, I can only thing of a few politicians. The most notable is probably Rep. George Miller. A lot of UCD alum. are working in politics, but not as elected officials.
"I don't know half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve."
--Bilbo Baggins
by kaweahkaweah on May 18, 2008 6:22 PM PDT up reply actions
great post...
but, I have a feeling you’ll be eating your words about Crosby later this season. I have nothing to back that up, of course. I’m not a stat guy. I still think Thomas will hit at least 30 home runs this year.
I’d like to see this same analysis done on the Yankees. Are they terrible or unlucky?
Foolsh, the most insane regular poster on AN since oaktoon left - salb
The problem with the Yankees isn't their offense...
Crosby: Remember, he’s performing OVER his projection.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Nice Post
PT. Very informative.
"Put some ice on it. After that, there's nothing a few beers won't take care of. " -Pink
Perhaps
we’ll begin to hit better and continue to stay hot/get lucky/clutch up with RISP. World Series here we come.
I needed a team so I wouldn’t turn into one of the eighty million pink hat-wearing Bud Light-drinking mulleted idiots at Fenway.
Ya never know
Seems like a lot of World Series winners have been good and have been lucky. Why not us?
"I don't know half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve."
--Bilbo Baggins
by kaweahkaweah on May 16, 2008 10:30 AM PDT up reply actions
I eagerly await the next installment, focusing on a different sector of the roster
Taking a Step Back From the Lidge: The A’s Bullpen
We're going to knock balls out of the country's park, for the home team, which is America. @('.')@
Slump is ending soon, we are no longer #1 in ESPN Power Ranking
WE’RE NUMBER 4
WE’RE NUMBER 4
WE’RE NUMBER 4
YEAHHHHHH
Let me get this straight
PT starts writing this a few days ago, about how the A’s offense is going to get better, and in that time the team has managed to score 4 runs in 4 games… all losses.
Paul, either the A’s hate you or your timing SUCKS.
The monster at the end of this blog.
I'm guessing both
Actually, I blame the fact that I haven’t seen a minute of an A’s game since Sunday (when they won easily). So far this month the A’s have won every game that I’ve seen part of and lost every game but one that I haven’t seen any of.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
apparently you
need to start watching more games then.
"Put some ice on it. After that, there's nothing a few beers won't take care of. " -Pink
by OrlandoAsFan on May 21, 2008 12:51 PM PDT up reply actions
It's nice to put a value on how much...
the team has been sucking, but I’m not sure baseball is all that complicated. Heres what all these stats don’t put an emphasis on. Emil Brown is apparently less valuable than a guy like Jack Cust, but if I’ve read the game logs correctly, in every loss the A’s have had dating back until April 22nd, Emil Brown has had no RBIs in the game. To add to that, The A’s have only won 6 games in which Brown did not have an RBI over the entire season. They have only lost 4 games over the season in which he has an RBI in. When Emil Brown is having that much impact on your roster thats a problem. Even if he is making outs at a higher rate than some other guys, the tradeoff for the runs he is driving in is undeniable. Lets hope he gets back on track, he has 1 hit in the four game losing streak, and last night he left 6 guys on base.
Then again, it’s not the right strategy to rely on Emil Brown for all your offense either. Someone needs to tell Jack Cust to not take three straight strikes with RISP like he did last night.
What about Barry?
"Barry who?" Forst said, and I felt like I was in the middle of a knock-knock joke.
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