Trading Street?
I think the A's would have much to gain by acting on this idea. The fact that closers are so volatile and Billy Beane has proven he can find another one is just a nice foundation to start: But other advntages include the continue stickpiling of the farm system.
What is one thing the A's may still need in the future? A big time power source....and there is a team out there who may be desperate for a closer and a power source with a lack of a position. How about Street for Matt LaPorta? And maybe another player or two as that is how deals for proven major leaguers ususally happen. This would be such a great move for the long-term strategy for this franchise. Oakland would become legit title contenders for the next handful of years. With the great pitching now and on the way, Street can easily be replaced, and most likely even internally.
LaPorta is one idea? Any others? Thoughts?
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85 comments
Comments
pie in the sky
Street ERA 3.86/ WHIP 1.10/ K-BB 18-5
Looking around at teams that need bullpen help I found this:
1) Detroit Tigers. Closer Todd Jones. ERA 4.50/ WHIP 1.50/ AGE 40.
I think they really need someone to close out those games. They’ve got a stocked lineup and I think they really need a boost in the bullpen to keep them in it.
If we could get Miguel Cabrera (cmon Beane!), that would solve a lot of issues for us and give us some solid power.
2) Cleveland Indians. Closer Rafael Betancourt. ERA 6.89/ WHIP 1.53/
Would like Grady Sizemore or Travis Hafner. I doubt they’d consider these 2, but they need a way to finish games. They’re only 1.5 games back of Minnesota (20-17) in a shaky Central Division. It could put them over the top and win it. I think the argument could be made (especially by Billy) that Cleveland could be in danger of letting an easy Div Title slip away by not holding an effective closer. With Betancourt and Joe Borowski doing terribly this season it behoves the management to get them a winner.
3) Milwaukee Brewers. Closer Eric Gagne. ERA 6.62/ WHIP 1.87/ BS 5
I’d like Ryan Braun, Price Fielder or Corey Hart? They wouldn’t be 4 games back of the Div Leade with an effective closer. Houston could turn them the final corner and get them through St. Louis and the Cubbies.
Obviously, I’m not doing much indepth analysis (I’m at work for crying out loud) and these are only the MLB players and not drifting through the prospects which I would advise others to do. I’m sure there are some good people on the cusp that we could pick up and get rollin with.
It's just more exciting with Billy Beane running the team.
by ru155 on May 13, 2008 7:28 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
The Indians might make that Hafner deal
He’s owed $57M / 4, after 2008, is 31 years old in 2008, and is showing some signs of decline. He’s been unlucky with balls in play this year, yes, but his home run / fly ball rate has dropped to 9.1%, from 15.9% in 2007, and around 18.6%-30.7% in 2004-2006. Meanwhile, his infield fly ball rate has crept up to 12.1%. His K rate has also increased. I wonder if he’s playing with an injury.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on May 13, 2008 8:16 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good lord, would that ever be a bad deal for Oakland
Get a declining DH you don’t need and is owed buku bucks for 4 years, give up your best under-25 pitcher.
Wow. That deal would be Bavasi-esque.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on May 13, 2008 9:32 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs


We're going to knock balls out of the country's park, for the home team, which is America. @('.')@
by monkeyball on May 13, 2008 11:27 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I can't even decipher one of these
much less both of them.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on May 13, 2008 11:48 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hint: It's not "buku"
formerly known as mdl
by iglew on May 13, 2008 9:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
(and I've told him that before)
We're going to knock balls out of the country's park, for the home team, which is America. @('.')@
by monkeyball on May 14, 2008 9:28 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
There's no possible chance of me getting this
I have no idea who any of the images are.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on May 14, 2008 10:12 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're so resourceful, Paul.
The first picture is actor Beau Bridges.
The second one is some band I’d never heard of, but it’s spelled out there right on the image: Coup.
Beau + Coup = beaucoup(s), the French word that means “lots of”.
(For best results, include the s when modifying a plural but omit it when modifying a singular. For example, beaucoup money, beaucoups bucks.)
formerly known as mdl
by iglew on May 14, 2008 2:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, I wasn't wrong
Not in a million years would I have gotten that.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on May 14, 2008 3:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, good thing that
you’re not looking for a job as research assistant, then.
formerly known as mdl
by iglew on May 14, 2008 6:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Coup is a progressive rap group out of Oakland ...
led by Boots Riley, son of important civil rights lawyer, Wilson Riley …
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on May 14, 2008 5:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
apologies
i meant to write Sizemore AND Hafner.
It's just more exciting with Billy Beane running the team.
by ru155 on May 13, 2008 12:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
And not insist they throw in Carmona and Garko?
Aim for the sky!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on May 13, 2008 12:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Might as well throw Asdrúbal Cabrera and Jhonny Peralta in there, we need
middle infielders after all.
by OldhamA on May 13, 2008 1:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
pipe dream
stop listing players that the teams will absolutly not give up.
Look for players in their minor league system, preferably Middle Infielders.
by Zonis on May 13, 2008 8:39 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
what?
I posted my disclaimer at the bottom. I’m at work and said someone should check out the minor league options as a more realistic cache. But those teams are in contention and in definite need of a solid closer at this moment.
It's just more exciting with Billy Beane running the team.
by ru155 on May 13, 2008 8:50 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
pipe dreamin'...
Street for Pujols, Cabrera, Kinsler, Braun, Mays, Mantle, Dimaggio, Ted Williams, and Reggie Jackson.
Their teams are in serious need of a closer, and Beane can work magic…
by Stew's Crew on May 13, 2008 9:08 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
In need of a closer?
Try in need of a torso. Poor Ted Williams. :-(
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on May 13, 2008 12:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I assumed he/she was talking with their tongue very much firmly in their cheek.
By the looks of the reply though, yowzers.
by OldhamA on May 13, 2008 9:16 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
There's a picture ... it's a he ...
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on May 13, 2008 10:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
What issues would aquiring Miguel Cabera solve?
He’s a horrible 3B, which is why Detroit moved him to first base and put Carlos Guillen at third.
Last I checked, we had Daric Barton and Mike Sweeney in a semi-platoon at first base already, and Jack Hannahan is performing admirably well at third.
Couple that with the fact that Detroit gave up their best 2 prospects to get Cabrera, and you really think they’d deal him for Street?
by mikev on May 13, 2008 9:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
And, you know, they just gave him about a billion dollars for the next decade or something
http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/
by thejd44 on May 13, 2008 9:16 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, golly, color me convinced.
I’m officially in favor of trading Street for Miguel Cabrera, Grady Sizemore, or Prince Fielder.
formerly known as mdl
by iglew on May 13, 2008 9:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Paging PaulThomas
PaulThomas to the white courtesy phone please.
by mikev on May 13, 2008 7:42 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
"Courtesy?" ;-)
Last of the Ninth - Photography Site
jamesvenes.com - Blog
by Flashfire on May 13, 2008 8:31 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Monte Poole? Is that you?
I notice he hasn’t said much about the fact the A’s actually have a few black players on the roster now. He only pipes up when they don’t.
Last of the Ninth - Photography Site
jamesvenes.com - Blog
by Flashfire on May 13, 2008 10:27 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Since the Bradley thing
“Beane is racist” has become a kind of running joke around here.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on May 13, 2008 10:30 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, I know.
Last of the Ninth - Photography Site
jamesvenes.com - Blog
by Flashfire on May 13, 2008 10:36 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why is Monte Poole published?
I don’t want to stop him from writing, but he has nothing rational to say.
The other day, he said you could ignore Oakland’s record during April (small sample size, you know), because starting May 2-2 was more significant. Seriously, is the problem not enough oxygen to the brain?
by As Fan in the Bronx on May 13, 2008 11:16 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Laporta might be doable
but i think they might want Blanton and Street, and they would give Laporta plus a lesser prospect.
detroit?, maybe Sheffield for Street? Cleveland, Franklin Gutierrez maybe?
by jahs34 on May 13, 2008 9:04 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Uh
No way Beane gives up two major leaguers for two prospects.
Particularly not two good, pre-free-agency major leaguers.
LaPorta is not that good. Seriously. He isn’t. He’s a good hitter who is basically a DH. If his bat is not exceptional, he will be a mediocre MLB asset. He is essentially Jack Cust minus about 6 years.
On top of which, LaPorta is near-useless to Oakland. He’s a marginal upgrade at best over the DH options that the team already has. Certainly not worth two major, major downgrades on the pitching staff.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on May 13, 2008 9:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh PT:
Your passionate objectivity only rivals my own. : )
Ok seriously, that’s about exactly what I was thinking. Street and Blanton better get you someone that is considered THE MAN, and Rich Harden better be healthy.
by passionately objective on May 13, 2008 9:58 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The minus six years thing is a VERY big deal ... it means he still has the upside of being a +++ hitter ...
which Cust does not.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on May 13, 2008 10:09 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't say he's Cust minus 6 years
The hitting skill set is different. Fewer Ks, more contact.
But, the A’s don’t really need yet another corner player, with Buck, Gonzalez, Barton, Cust, Cunningham, Carter.
I’d much rather try a trade with the Braves. A Schafer / Hernandez + Lillibridge trade.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on May 13, 2008 11:15 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Alright, Cust is sui generis
There probably isn’t anyone who can actually be compared to him.
Pat Burrell, then, if you’d like.
It’s a good time to buy low on Schafer, but I’m not sure Schafer plus Lillibridge would be enough for Street. Lillibridge has been awful this season and, no matter what the effects of HGH are in reality, the psychological impact of the suspension and the effect of losing 50 games of development are hard to estimate. If the A’s could bag one of the Low-A Rome starting rotation (all young lefthanders) as well, I’d do it.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on May 13, 2008 11:56 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Losing 50 games due to the suspension
is nowhere as bad as losing 50 games to injury. He still can train and practice. Just look at the suspension as a one time fluke short term injury.
As it is, I’m not sure that the Braves would trade Schafer and Lillibridge for Street alone. They probably need a starter more than a reliever, both now, and for the future.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on May 13, 2008 2:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Shrug
That’s as may be. I’d talk Blanton, Duke or Gaudin if I was Beane too; they just don’t have Street’s upside.
Here’s the thing—Atlanta is about this close to hitting the wall. They went max effort for last year and this year and it hasn’t really panned out. At some point in the not very distant future (i.e. not later than this coming offseason), I believe they are going to start selling off the pieces and rebuilding. I don’t know whether they’re still willing to commit more resources to this push.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on May 13, 2008 4:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Brian McCann is
24. Kelly Johnson, 26. Yunel Escobar, 25. Francoeur is 24. Jair Jurrjens is 24. All of these guys have value for the future.
The holes that they do have, in CF, in the corner OF spots, even 1b, assuming that they don’t sign Teixeira to a new contract, can be filled by Schafer, Hernandez, Heyward, Brandon Jones.
The team has already been rebuilding, and is already somewhat rebuilt. As for committing more resources for this push, that’s why I suggested that they would want starters, more than relievers. Especially starting pitchers who will be under control for the next several years. Especially for players who will be surplus. Lillibridge is blocked at SS and 2b. And Schafer and Hernandez are both CFs. They’re better trading some surplus positions players for starting pitchers, especially since they’ve been good at developing position players, but not so much starters.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on May 13, 2008 11:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree that the teams are a good match
but that suggests a prospect-for-prospect deal to me more than a prospect-for-proven player deal.
More Garza than Haren, if you catch my drift.
There’s no real hurry, but I could definitely envision a trade like Brett Anderson for Jordan Schafer happening in a year or two.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on May 14, 2008 12:00 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also, the Braves and A's are a good match
The Braves have surplus talent in the up the middle positions, but need pitchers, the A’s have surplus pitching, but need SSs, CFs, possibly 2bs.
Of the other teams, like the Tigers, that are desperately in need of pitching, none really have the players that would fill important needs on the A’s.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on May 13, 2008 11:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not sure if you saw BlameChannel's post...
In the LaPorta thread, but if you feel that LaPorta is that good of a hitter, then he could be one hell of a lot more valuable than Cust. At this point, Jay Bruce is the number one hitting prospect in the minors, but LaPorta is 1A. He’s destroying AA, not A ball, big difference. And he does every single thing well in the box.
If the A’s can get this kind of impact bat, then I think they have to (not for Blanton and Street obviously, but maybe for Street and Gaudin if they send a live arm back.) We lucked into Cust. The A’s aren’t going to be able to find another guy like that, unless they luck out in the draft. A 60+ VORP hitter is the one thing the A’s don’t have at all in the system.
by 31Boots on May 13, 2008 2:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
See, this is simply not correct
I do not view LaPorta as the second best position player prospect in the minors. He does not have a position. That is really, really important. I would take a guy like Colby Rasmus over him every day of the week, because he has a position. Or Wieters. Or Andy LaRoche.
A 60+ VORP hitter is the one thing the A’s don’t have at all in the system.
My response to this is twofold. First, what? This is not even close to true. The A’s have no prospects at all with realistic hopes of being better than league-average at third base. None of their middle infield prospects project to OPS .800 on a regular basis. There isn’t a true CF above high-A ball.
And second, it’s a chimera. LaPorta is no more “a 60+ VORP hitter” than Chris Carter is. No one is a 60+ VORP hitter in the minor leagues.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on May 13, 2008 4:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
re
Should have been clearer, second best hitter, not overall prospect. And, obviously, I was referring to a potential or even projected 60+ VORP batter. Yeah, it would be pretty tough to have a big VORP number while playing in the minor leagues. Where’s the rolling eyes gif? To spell it out, LaPorta is a hell of a lot more likely to produce a 60 VORP season than Chris Carter or anybody else in the A’s organization besides Cust.
And, let me be clearer again. Even if Jack Cust had played a full season last year, in what will likely be his career year, he would have had 30-35 hitters ahead of him, and 25 significantly ahead. The difference between Jack Cust and David Ortiz was 5 wins. Bit of a strawman sure, but the point stands.The A’s don’t have one guy on the roster, or in the minors, who look like they could ever crack the top 20. They do not have any potential All-Star bats, besides possibly one in High A.
Those guys don’t come around very often. The top 20 in VORP last year is littered with first round picks and high dollar free agents. The A’s might match up with a team who has a guy like that who’s relatively expendable. The only young hitter like that, major or minors, who might be available. And I’m not talking about giving up Josh Beckett to get him. The A’s have a hell of a lot of pitching depth, and more coming. Too much depth to get full use out of really. That’s not a problem, but it does create an opportunity. IMO, the A’s would do well to take advantage of that opportunity. If you think a AA hitter is too risky of a gamble, even with this dude’s pedigree and the small percentage of hitters like this who flameout, we can agree to disagree.
by 31Boots on May 13, 2008 5:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cust vs Papi
Let’s see, by Batting Runs, ie the standard linear weights formula, Cust was 33 runs above avearge in 2007, Papi, 64.
By Batting Runs above average from Baseball Prospectus, which is EQA, converted into runs relative to average, Cust was 31 runs above average, Ortiz, 57. By Batting runs above replacement, which is EQA converted into runs relative to replacement, Cust was 45 runs above, Papi 74. By Runs above Replaement Position, Cust was at 38.7, Ortiz 67.7.
So, the various EQA based stats from BPro, and also Batting Runs, disagree with VORP, that Papi was 5 wins better than Cust.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on May 13, 2008 11:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Those differences should be adjusted for playing time, as well, since they are all counting stats ...
which lowers the difference even more, on average to about a win and a half.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on May 14, 2008 9:30 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Talking about hypothetical trades that have no chance of happening . . .
is pretty boring to me, but I will do one last post on this to clarify my position in light of 31Boots’ post and your response.
The A’s obviously have greater organizational need at other positions besides LF/1B/DH. That, however, does not mean that the A’s would be wise to immediately ignore LaPorta’s potential. If the A’s view LaPorta in the same manner that an increasing number of scouts and prospect mavens do - as the next elite hitter to come from the minors - than trading for him makes sense despite his inability to play an elite defensive position. A hitter who can produce 60+ VORP is a rare commodity, and LaPorta would vastly improve the A’s if he produced at that level.
Your statement that “no one is a 60+ VORP hitter in the minor leagues” is like many of your posts in that it manages to be cute, snarky, and dismissive all at the same time, but it doesn’t really provide any analysis. Taken to its logical conclusion, your post means that the Reds should be willing to trade Jay Bruce for Jermaine Mitchell since both are CFers or the A’s should be willing to trade Trevor Cahill to the D’Backs for Billy Buckner because both are right handed starters who throw sinkers. Could Chris Carter be as good as LaPorta? Sure, he could. Will he? Good luck finding a knowledgable person who would trade LaPorta for Chris Carter.
Will LaPorta produce 60+ VORP on an annual basis in the majors? No one knows for sure at this point, obviously. Truly elite hitters are rare, and thus it is always hard to say that any prospect will become an elite hitter. I say this with absolute confidence, however; I have more faith in LaPorta’s ability to be an elite offensive player than I do with any other prospect in baseball. That statement is based on more than “just over a month of plate appearances in AA.”
LaPorta was an elite hitter in high school, was an elite hitter in college, and has now been an elite hitter in the minors. His statistical profile is excellent. He hits for average, he hits for power, he has excellent palte discipline, and is contact rates are very good for a power hitter. Scouting-wise, he is also across the board excellent as a hitter. He has a compact, powerful swing, he has tremendous balance at the plate, he hits good fastballs and recognizes and hits offspeed pitches, he has tremendous bat speed, and he has a good physique from which to maintain or improve his current power levels as he ages.
I would do a Sreet for LaPorta deal in a second, but I very seriously doubt that the Brewers would.
by BlameChannel53 on May 13, 2008 5:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Your statement that "no one is a 60+ VORP hitter in the minor leagues" is like many of your posts in that it manages to be cute, snarky, and dismissive all at the same time, but it doesn’t really provide any analysis. Taken to its logical conclusion, your post means that the Reds should be willing to trade Jay Bruce for Jermaine Mitchell since both are CFers or the A’s should be willing to trade Trevor Cahill to the D’Backs for Billy Buckner because both are right handed starters who throw sinkers. Could Chris Carter be as good as LaPorta? Sure, he could. Will he? Good luck finding a knowledgable person who would trade LaPorta for Chris Carter.
Whether that statement provides any analysis is, I guess, up to the reader. But it is intended to convey a very basic truth—no one projects out as that kind of hitter based on their minor league track record. No one. Ever. The tiny handful of guys who grade out as a 10 upside (HOF type players) invariably hit at an elite level AND play defense-first positions. Pure hitters with no defensive value cannot be predicted to become HOF type players. Some do, most do not.
And I don’t know where that crap about Bruce/Mitchell/whoever is coming from. I did not say that all prospects, or even all prospects at the same position, were the same—that is transparently idiotic. All prospects are a combination of upside and likelihood of reaching it. Bruce has both a vastly higher upside than Mitchell and a vastly higher likelihood of hitting it. I regard the upsides of Carter and LaPorta as basically the same, with a somewhat higher chance that LaPorta reaches his. Both of them have about as high of upsides as pure hitter, no-D prospects can have.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on May 13, 2008 6:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
And to take this a step further
we can reverse engineer just how good LaPorta will have to be for the suggested trade to make sense.
First, let’s handle the Gaudin for “live arm” swap. Gaudin projects as about a league-average pitcher for the next three years (on average; his upside and downside are both considerable). Without knowing who the other pitcher is, let’s guess that he has a 20% chance of being 10 runs over average, a 20% chance of being average, a 20% chance of being 10 runs below average, and a 40% chance of being replacement level or worse (which I’ll call 20 runs below average). During the three years when both would be pitching for Oakland, the live arm is about 8 runs per year worse than Gaudin. He does provide some possibility of value in years 4-6, while the only value Gaudin provides is through potential compensation picks. (I’m not even going to try and handle those. But what value they do provide will probably be greater under the keep-Street scenario.) However, most of that value is in easily-obtained “marginal player runs” (i.e. the value of a guy who is above replacement but below average).
Next there’s the lost value of Street himself. Despite what AN seems to think, this is very considerable. PECOTA thinks Street has the highest upside of any relief pitcher in baseball. The next three-odd seasons will likely be among the best in his career. If he even just matches his performance to this point, he will be around 15 runs above average. Again, let’s give the trade the benefit of the doubt. We’ll say he stays on his current tack.
Finally, we have to measure the effect of demoting the player that LaPorta replaces. Right now the A’s have a huge number of players in the outfield and 1B positions, but it seems likely that the lineup of the near future will come out of this group:
Carlos Gonzalez
Aaron Cunningham
Travis Buck
Daric Barton
Chris Carter
Ryan Sweeney
Sean Doolittle
Jack Cust
LaPorta will basically be replacing the 5th best of this group of 8. (3 outfield positions, 1B, DH.) I kind of like the upside of these guys, m’self; I think the A’s should easily be able to stock those 5 positions with players who are average or better. Again giving the trade the benefit of the doubt, let’s say the worst of the bunch is league-average. Let’s also assume that the A’s are able to move that guy for some return—say half his value in VORP, since the team will be dealing from a position of weakness.
OK. Let’s add this all up here. In runs over average, for the first three years:
-8 Gaudin swap -15 Street = 23 runs lost.
In runs over replacement: -8 Gaudin swap -35 Street -20 position player replacement =63 runs lost.
For the remaining three years, by RAA:
-8 Gaudin swap = 8 runs lost
By RAR:
+12 Gaudin swap -20 position player = 8 runs lost
Summing up in total, the team loses 69+24=93 runs above average and 189+24=213 runs above replacement. These numbers actually square up somewhat nicely. If we assume LaPorta plays 6.5 seasons his value looks very similar under either of these metrics. Essentially, during his time in an Oakland uniform, LaPorta will need to be around 15 runs above average (33 above replacement) as a DH to even this trade out.
One more variable—LaPorta’s fielding. Let’s assume that he’s a standard DH type—a guy who would be 5 runs under average as a 1B, 10 under as a corner type, 15 under as a third baseman. So no matter where you put him, the positional adjustment and the effects of his fielding add up to 15 runs below average.
So: Relative to a global league-average hitter, to make this trade work out, I calculate that LaPorta will need to, in his average outcome, be around 30 runs over average, or 48 runs over replacement. It’s possible that there are math (or reasoning) errors in the above; if so, they are, I swear, unintentional. But as far as I can tell that trade’s success is premised on the concept that LaPorta projects as a hitter who is 30 RAA in his average outcome.
No offense, guys, but that strikes me as utterly ludicrous.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on May 13, 2008 10:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nice straw man, PT
But I never once suggested trading Laporta for Street and Gaudin.
by BlameChannel53 on May 13, 2008 10:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If the A’s can get this kind of impact bat, then I think they have to (not for Blanton and Street obviously, but maybe for Street and Gaudin if they send a live arm back.)by 31Boots on May 13, 2008 2:14 PM PDT
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on May 13, 2008 10:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly
So why not respond to him? You bore me.
by BlameChannel53 on May 13, 2008 10:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's the same frigging thread
Get a grip.
If you throw out the whole Gaudin thing and just look at Street and LaPorta, he still has to be 20 runs above an average hitter or 5 runs above an average DH to even it out.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on May 13, 2008 10:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
re
What’s with the intellectual dishonesty? Gaudin and Street would not be replaced with replacement level players. I can’t believe you wasted all that time making this silly post.
by 31Boots on May 13, 2008 11:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Intellectual dishonesty?
WTF? Back that the fuck up or retract it.
I did it by average and by replacement level. They effectively amount to the same thing.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on May 13, 2008 11:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
re
Ok, that was over the line…a little bit. I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt. I guess strawman would be more apt. I mean it’s very likely that if Gaudin and Street were traded, the A’s would replace them with two pitchers who are 8 runs worse per season than Gaudin. My bigger point stands. Your argument is silly.
by 31Boots on May 13, 2008 11:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If they were traded, right now,
based on the 40-man roster it appears that the replacements would be Jeff Gray and Lenny DiNardo.
I have no real hesitation in saying that those guys are a lot worse than Gaudin and Street.
In future years? Perhaps not—but every pitching prospect you expend filling the holes you created with this trade is a prospect that is NOT being used to trade for Jordan Schafer or Chris Nelson or Andy LaRoche or whomever.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on May 13, 2008 11:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
re
I take back taking back that you’re intellectually dishonest.
by 31Boots on May 14, 2008 12:09 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'll assume you're conceding defeat
since we’ve reached the “context-free ad hominem attack” stage of things.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on May 14, 2008 8:14 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
re
Paul, you wrote without irony that as best you can read the 40 man Jeff Gray would be coming up. You’re not a dumb guy. Besides intellectual dishonesty what conclusion should I reach?
by 31Boots on May 14, 2008 9:57 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Here is a list of every pitcher who is not on the active roster
and is on the 40-man roster.
Blevins
Braden
Calero (DL)
DiNardo
Gray
Meyer
H.A. Rodriguez
Blevins, Braden and Meyer are lefthanded. Calero is hurt. Rodriguez is sucking pond water in AA, as a starter.
Would it change things if they called up Braden instead? Nope. He would still be substantially worse than either Gaudin or Street.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on May 14, 2008 10:08 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
From
Street’s PECOTA page, VORP from 2005-2007, 33.3, 19.7, 13.1. weighted mean forecast, from 2008-2011, 23.4, 17.5, 21.3, 19.8.
Or if you prefer, WXRL, which is similar to WPA, ie it is a stat based on win expectancies, 2005-2007, 4.4, 3.3, 2.2. Pecota’s weighted mean forecast from 2008-2011, 3.8, 2.7, 3.2, 3.2.
PECOTA is basically forecasting that he stays essentially the same as 2006.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on May 14, 2008 12:02 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why would a contender give up a good, major league player for a closer?
That just doesn’t make sense.
Best-case scenario: You get a major-league ready AAA player and a couple low minors guys.
Teams aren’t going to give up a piece of their puzzle to get a different piece. Then they’re still just as far away. (This is primarily true mid-season. You’re more likely to get a proven major leaguer in the offseason)
http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/
by thejd44 on May 13, 2008 9:18 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
So, you're saying Street for Brignac and Hellickson?
by mikev on May 13, 2008 10:04 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think I'd make that move
Trade from strength (bullpen) to fill weakness (middle infield), without giving up upside.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on May 13, 2008 10:20 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Probably not, if their bullpen keeps being this good
Their ex-retiree bullpen guy did a better job of HGHing during his “retirement” than Oakland’s did…
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on May 13, 2008 10:32 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Foulke's PED of choice: SGH
Sloth growth hormone. Makes his changeup go even slower.
We're going to knock balls out of the country's park, for the home team, which is America. @('.')@
by monkeyball on May 13, 2008 11:30 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
This one makes no sense to me
Brignac’s stock is falling rapidly. He’s not beating out a Crosby in any way shape or form (Crosby 97 ops+, ftr). And the A’s are full up on pitchers with lots of potential and a ways out. Hellickson would be nice to have, absolutely, but he’s not David Price or anything, and he’s years away from contributing. I don’t see how this two come anywhere near the value of LaPorta.
by 31Boots on May 13, 2008 2:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
All three of these players
were rated as B+ by John Sickels in the offseason.
Yet you suggest that not only is LaPorta worth BOTH of the other players, but on top of that he is also worth Chad Gaudin (minus “a live arm”, whatever that means).
I say making that kind of judgment on just over a month of plate appearances in AA is nuts.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on May 13, 2008 4:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
re
It’s not just a month of plate appearances in AA. LaPorta spent years as the top rated amateur hitter in the country. He crushed the ball last year and he’s continuing. Go to Sickels’ site and ask if LaPorta is now in the A- to A range. If you’ve followed Sickels’ work, you know what his answer would be.
Brignac has 700 straight PAs which say he’s not a top prospect, maybe not even a major leaguer. His bat carries his glove, or it’s supposed to at least. When you factor in his slip, then I definitely stand by the assertion that the two are “nowhere near the value of LaPorta.”
by 31Boots on May 13, 2008 6:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
LaPorta spent years as the top rated amateur hitter in the country. He crushed the ball last year and he’s continuing.
important.
"It's not my fault your team's so shitty." -Steve Friend, head coach, Chabot College, to Laney College's head coach, who asked why we scored so many runs after we beat Laney 30-3 in 2006
by flipgatey3 on May 13, 2008 11:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
This isn't a bad idea.
I’ve liked Matt LaPorta for awhile. That being said, i would like to see the A’s address the 2b/ss/3b weaknesses in the organization before trying to acquire another 1b/dh type of player. I’m not saying that i wouldn’t love to have him on the team, i just think it would be unnecessary at this point. Especially when there are still more urgent needs to be addressed.
"Put some ice on it. After that, there's nothing a few beers won't take care of. " -Pink
by OrlandoAsFan on May 13, 2008 1:11 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
What about Matt Antonelli
Matt Antonelli, 23 year old second baseman on Padres AAA team. Hoffman is sucking balls and could be done, so they could need a closer. Antonelli is in a slump so far this year but he still is showing a great batting eye with a 24:25 bb:k ratio. In 2007 he hit 21 bombs between A+ and AA, ops’s of 901 and 871, and obp’s of 407 and 395.
Cust is the new Jaha.
by johnjahafanclub on May 13, 2008 8:40 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Doesn't fit the Padre MO
They figure their ballpark will turn anybody into a good pitcher.
Also, they’re more likely selling than buying at this point; they’re in such a hole it’s going to be near impossible to climb out of it.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on May 13, 2008 9:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
True
but we swindled them for Cust last year, they still need a good pitcher who can close out 82 games on the road, and my opinion is that they are underachieving and will do better… rotation of peavy/chris young is sick 1-2 and khalil greene has been slumping… they should be better than .500 team imo
Cust is the new Jaha.
by johnjahafanclub on May 13, 2008 9:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
plus
they would probably try to keep street as a long term replacement for hoffman b/c he’s so young
Cust is the new Jaha.
by johnjahafanclub on May 13, 2008 9:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
OK, well
They need a replacement for Iguchi too… and a new center fielder… obviously Antonelli is being counted on to fill one of these positions. Who plays second base for them next season if they deal him for Street? Zero points if your answer is “Mark Ellis.”
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on May 13, 2008 10:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Earlier in the season maybe
It is pretty likely that they have already given up, and are thinking of rebuilding. They have the worst record in the NL. They are 9 1/2 games out of first. Their pitching, even with Hoffman’s sucking, is still better than their offense. Their offense is horrendously bad. It is worse than the Giants’ offense.
I don’t see them trading a young hitter for a reliever, even one with Street’s upside. Especially since Street already has 3 years of service time, is not signed long term, and the Padres are generally not a big money org.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on May 14, 2008 12:12 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Overvalued
I’m not sure we would be having this discussion if Street was the lights out closer that we wished he should had been. I would expect other team’s scouts being more critical of Huston, and I wouldn’t give him an A grade based on talent/production this season. I don’t want to come off as mean to Huston because I liked the guy coming out of Texas, but I don’t think he’s performing as well as the other guys in our bullpen.
In essence, I’m agreeing (a somewhat long winded one) with thejd44 and others. But my real question is: What grade would you guys (and girls) give Huston currently?
by rightbackin on May 13, 2008 9:15 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
cue PT
"It's not my fault your team's so shitty." -Steve Friend, head coach, Chabot College, to Laney College's head coach, who asked why we scored so many runs after we beat Laney 30-3 in 2006
by flipgatey3 on May 13, 2008 11:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
A-quadruplebillion-plus!!!!!!!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on May 14, 2008 7:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

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