Beane turned Mulder into 8 solid player/prospects -- so far

by BlueMoon on May 10, 2008 6:54 AM PDT

This may have already been noted in an ealier post, but here goes. . . It's often said you have to judge a trade a few years down the road. Now it's been a few years since Beane made the controversial trade of Mulder to the Cards. Of course flipping Haren for 6 guys this year makes this deal look insanely lopsided.

Net Results for A's so far:

Minus - Mulder

Plus - Deric Barton, Greg Smith, Dana Eveland, Brett Anderson, Chris Carter, Aaron Cunningham, Carlos Gonzalez, Kiko Calero

0 recs | Comment 41 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

"This may have already been noted in an ealier post, but here goes. . . "

If you start your post this way, it’s probably not worth a post.

stat-addled alien overlord

by salb918 on May 10, 2008 7:15 AM PDT 0 recs

+1

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on May 10, 2008 8:24 AM PDT up 0 recs

Brand new person, probably didn't check any archives

Not the biggest transgression in the world, but at the same time you’d have to figure AN would be on top of a little detail like that. I remember the graphic on it a few weeks ago.

Still, it stands out impressively.

Last of the Ninth - Photography Site
jamesvenes.com - Blog

by Flashfire on May 10, 2008 9:23 AM PDT up 0 recs

Yeah

he should have searched the archives to see if it had been posted … oh wait.

by phastphill on May 10, 2008 9:46 AM PDT up 0 recs

I know, it'd take too much time to look through past...

...stories and fanposts. What’s wrong with me?

Last of the Ninth - Photography Site
jamesvenes.com - Blog

by Flashfire on May 10, 2008 10:49 AM PDT up 0 recs

Best A's trade

Phil Garner and utility infielder Tommy Helms for :

Tony Armas, Mitchell Page, Rick Langford, Doc Medich, Doug Bair, Dave Gusti

by BlueMoon on May 10, 2008 7:18 AM PDT 0 recs

Also...

we lost Connor Robertson in the Haren deal, so the deal is more like:

Minus – Mark Mulder, Connor Robertson

Plus – Daric Barton, Greg Smith, Dana Eveland, Brett Anderson, Chris Carter, Aaron Cunningham, Carlos Gonzalez, Kiko Calero

by Zabat on May 10, 2008 11:06 AM PDT 0 recs

don't forget + several years of Dan Haren

though why we still have Calero is a mystery to me.

I put on my robe and wizard hat.

by Zonis on May 10, 2008 11:26 AM PDT up 0 recs

because he was signed very cheaply

and if he proves to be healthy can be traded for some useful part, much like Bradford was for Jay Payton.

by OaklandSi on May 10, 2008 2:47 PM PDT up 0 recs

I disagree.

I don’t believe that trades can be judged two-deep or further. By this reasoning, the Yankees may still be getting results from the Babe Ruth acquisition. Mulder produced Haren/Barton/Calero, period. Haren, but only after he demonstrated he was worthy, produced the rest.

I once heard Sandy Alderson asked on a talk show about the poor return on Rickey Henderson from the Yankees, and he did the same thing, counted what they got for the other guys. It struck me as similar to political spin in an effort to make something sound better than it really is.

Some read stats. Others actually watch the game.

by UncleLeo on May 10, 2008 5:33 PM PDT 0 recs

also a good point

"It's not my fault your team's so shitty." -Steve Friend, head coach, Chabot College, to Laney College's head coach, who asked why we scored so many runs after we beat Laney 30-3 in 2006

by flipgatey3 on May 10, 2008 9:53 PM PDT up 0 recs

I'd say the truth is somewhere in between ...

you can’t just assume that Haren was going to work out and be tradeable for the haul he returned. At the same time, the return was clearly more than the three years of Haren we enjoyed …

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on May 11, 2008 10:14 AM PDT up 0 recs

I was always a fan of the '84 trade of Rickey

I liked the freshness of Rijo, Plunk, Birtsas, Howell, and Javier. Even though those players had various degrees of sucesses and failures with Oakland. Alderson does have a point: those players were used to acquire others—including a trade to get Henderson back. It maybe spin, but would keeping Henderson at the salary he made and at the opportunity cost of not having the cast of five that were netted in return have been any worse than it turned out to be?

Cēterīs paribus cuts both ways!

by LowcountryJoe on May 11, 2008 4:39 PM PDT up 0 recs

I absolutely disagree.

When Beane makes a trade, he rarely brings in a guy who is on his career peak or career downswing. Free agents – sure, he’ll take a punt on them, but his trade targets are guys he knows are going to have a better than normal chance of accruing in value, and if not, at least bring more back because they have perceived upside.

It’s not a coincidence that the Mulder trade is still paying off, two trades along. That’s by design.

The Yankees, on the other hand, pick up guys at their peak, and when they let them go, it’s generally for toilet filler, if anything.

Notes From The Nat has a new home: http://www.natnotes.com

by Ozzz on May 12, 2008 10:31 AM PDT up 0 recs

Solid players?

although it was the right move to trade Haren in my opinion. I think a few of them have a chance at being anywhere from average to great players. Not one of these players is a lock to be great though. I know Im going to get jumped on for saying this but Im not sold on Daric Barton at all. I know he is young but so far he is average at getting on base(.338obp), Has almost zero power(.321slg) with one homerun, cant hit for average(.231avg) and has a horrible OPS for a Firstbaseman of .658. That is all from a below average defender at First. Before everyone jumps on me about Barton, I would bet that every single A’s fan though Dan Johnson, Bobby Crosby had as much upside as Daric Barton if not more and look how that turned out. Firstbaseman without power are a huge risk. You are hoping for a Mark Grace type player and they just dont grow on trees. Im not knocking barton, Im trying to make a point that most prospects dont work out. Dont get your hopes up to high on players until they perform in the bigs.

by asfaninpismobeach on May 11, 2008 10:08 AM PDT 0 recs

So far, at least, I think you're right about Barton...

...the hype for so long suggested he was going to be a stud. And his call-up last year helped foster that hype. This year, he has been anything but. I think it’s starting to be evident that he may develop into a decent 1B, but not the stud we were expecting. From what we’ve seen so far, I don’t think it’s merely a case of being young or inexperienced, either. He’s just not “it”.

Some read stats. Others actually watch the game.

by UncleLeo on May 11, 2008 10:39 AM PDT up 0 recs

This is preposterous

He’s 22 and has a “career” OPS+ of 125.

That tells you what kind of sample sizes we’re working with here. Particularly when you just randomly throw out a third of his MLB at-bats.

Did I mention he was 22?

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on May 11, 2008 12:05 PM PDT up 0 recs

We know he is 22

Please at least admit that you thought at least one of Crosby and or Johnson were going to be stud players. I admit that I did, if you would have told me 4 years ago that Crosby would be a bust and that Johnson would be let go without so much as a trade I would have laughed in your face. Well its 2008 and we all know what has happened. I know Barton is 22, I hope he becomes a great Firstbaseman but for me he does’nt get a free pass to be horrible because of age or the fact that he is in MLB. If he is going to suck that bad, then he should be in Sac until he is ready. Hopefully for the A’s either Barton, Doolittle or Carter will be a solid player by 2010-2011.

by asfaninpismobeach on May 11, 2008 6:28 PM PDT up 0 recs

Stud players?

I dunno, Crosby had one great year in AAA; Johnson was really old for the minors. I probably would have found them exciting players at the time had I been sufficiently in touch with the team (which I wasn’t, not even close—that was the pre-cable era for me) but in the way that, say, Chris Denorfia and Landon Powell are exciting. I.e. guys who have pretty excellent MiLB track records but aren’t sure things to mirror that in the bigs.

Barton is a guy who’s been lauded by everybody—scouts, statheads, everybody—as a hitter since he was 17, and put up the results to boot.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on May 11, 2008 11:14 PM PDT up 0 recs

I can say with certainty that when Johnson was...

...tearing up the PCL and winning awards for it, I was excited about the prospects of him anchoring a spot in the MLB lineup for a while.

Didn’t work out that way, did it?

That’s about the time I started figuring out what it meant to be a AAAA player, too good for the minors but not good enough for a consistent spot in the majors.

Last of the Ninth - Photography Site
jamesvenes.com - Blog

by Flashfire on May 12, 2008 7:29 AM PDT up 0 recs

I'm not sure what your point is ...

DJ was never a stud prospect. He was an old guy who was beating up on inexperienced minor leaguers. I did think he could be a decent major leaguer—perhaps a league average first baseman, but nothing more, really.

Crosby had everyone fooled. He was pretty much universally considered a very good prospect - and he posted two very solid big league seasons before … something changed …. He’s an odd case - but, as he shows, absolutely, very good prospects can turn into busts.

What’s your point? Everyone knows that, I mean, what, do you want a cookie?

No one is suggesting that there is a 100% chance that Barton will turn into a quality Major Leaguer. Similarly, there also isn’t a 100% chance that Albert Pujols will be a quality Major Leaguer next year.

The kid is 22. He’s still learning how to play the game and developing his man muscles - and he has a career OPS+ of 125. He’s the 10th young player in the American League - and has a higher career OPS+ than any of the hitters who are younger than him. If you don’t like Daric Barton—you don’t like anybody who isn’t several years into their big league career.

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on May 11, 2008 11:42 PM PDT up 0 recs

Dude

the great thing about sports is that we can all have an opinion. I stated Im not sold on Barton, I also gave you a few reasons why Im not sold. I also understand why you think he will be a very good player. Nothing to do but wait and see. That being said, you dont have to be a smartass or a dick about it. I made my point and you made yours, you dont have to make smartass comments like your the fuckin know it all of everything baseball. I like my cookies chocolate chip.

by asfaninpismobeach on May 12, 2008 10:25 AM PDT up 0 recs

I don't think he will be very good player ...

I think he will probably be a good to very good player.

That’s the point that I was getting at—though it was clouded by my smart ass comments, for which I apologize.

Daric Barton is not Albert Pujols … but then, Albert Pujols is a once in a generation kind of player. Albert Pujols is basically a perfect player. He hits for power, hits for average, draws walks, plays gold glove defense, steals the occasional base, stays healthy and established his career norm performance level as a rookie, at the age of 21 after only a single season in the minors. He also signed with his team at a well below market rate. Albert Pujols is the perfect player. As I said, Daric Barton is not Albert Pujols.

Daric Barton has a strong track record in hitting for average and drawing walks—but a more middling (relative to other good prospects) track record of hitting for power. He is also a poor defender.

All told, he is one of the 10-15 best more or less ML ready prospects in the game. Not all of those guys will work out—but most of them well and several of them will be the stars of their generation. That said, none of them are Albert Pujols, and most of them still have some adjustments to make and are struggling a bit in the bigs or still languishing in the minors.

Daric Barton, thus far (if you look at his full major league sample and not just this season’s brief work), has performed admirably for a player his age and experience. He’s not Albert Pujols … but then, neither is anyone else, except Albert Pujols.

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on May 12, 2008 11:49 AM PDT up 0 recs

I think you could make an argument

that the collective MLB response to Albert Pujols—everyone missed on him completely; he was viewed as an organization player at best even by the Cardinals given where they drafted him—was the single most embarrassing moment in pro sports scouting in the last 30 years.

This is completely tangential, I just thought it related.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on May 12, 2008 12:28 PM PDT up 0 recs

Make an argument?

I’d be interested in hearing an argument that he wasn’t …

Piazza comes to mind - but in his case, at least you have the excuse that they rightly pegged him as a catcher who couldn’t catch or throw - generally not much value in that kind of a player, even if he can hit a bit …

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on May 12, 2008 8:37 PM PDT up 0 recs

Tom Brady was the guy that came to mind for me

That was a pretty big miss, since he’s on track to be one of the 5-10 best QBs in history…

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on May 12, 2008 10:48 PM PDT up 0 recs

Fair point ...

I was only thinking baseball, though you did clearly specify all pro sports …

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on May 13, 2008 10:11 AM PDT up 0 recs

Barton was traded for Mulder

Not Haren.

And if you want “can’t miss” players, well… for one thing, no one trades those guys anyway, and two, if you do get one, you’re not getting anything else, and if he flames out, you’re REALLY hosed.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on May 11, 2008 12:08 PM PDT up 0 recs

Thats my point

Daric Barton is not a “Cant miss prospect” neither is any other prospect that the A’s have. You have to bring them up to the Bigs and see how they play above AAA.

by asfaninpismobeach on May 11, 2008 6:12 PM PDT up 0 recs

justin upton was can't miss

i could think of a ton of guys who were can’t miss

"It's not my fault your team's so shitty." -Steve Friend, head coach, Chabot College, to Laney College's head coach, who asked why we scored so many runs after we beat Laney 30-3 in 2006

by flipgatey3 on May 11, 2008 10:37 PM PDT up 0 recs

Andy Marte was "can't miss"

until he missed.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on May 11, 2008 11:09 PM PDT up 0 recs

He's only 23. Though I assume the "can't miss" tag was put on him by

scouts as his minor league numbers are nothing special.

by OldhamA on May 12, 2008 4:42 AM PDT up 0 recs

Todd Van Poppel, Tim Belcher

by BlueMoon on May 12, 2008 7:48 AM PDT up 0 recs

Eh?

Considering his age when he recorded them, they are. Up until his first exposure to the big leagues, his numbers were as good as anyone as young as he was could possibly have been expected to put up.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on May 12, 2008 9:01 AM PDT up 0 recs

So was Brien Taylor

Last of the Ninth - Photography Site
jamesvenes.com - Blog

by Flashfire on May 12, 2008 7:32 AM PDT up 0 recs

Yeah, but he didn't miss

I believe he connected with a solid right

by As Fan in the Bronx on May 12, 2008 7:33 AM PDT up 0 recs

i don't remember him being "can't miss"

i know he was supposed to be pretty good though

"It's not my fault your team's so shitty." -Steve Friend, head coach, Chabot College, to Laney College's head coach, who asked why we scored so many runs after we beat Laney 30-3 in 2006

by flipgatey3 on May 12, 2008 11:37 PM PDT up 0 recs

That's true. Even if the Dbacks would have contemplated trading Upton straight up for

Haren [which a) they wouldn’t have and b) we’d have been silly to accept it] that’s all we’d have got for an All Star pitcher. If he busts you’ve set the franchise back for years.

by OldhamA on May 12, 2008 4:40 AM PDT up 0 recs

it wouldn't have been silly to take that deal

beane would have taken that deal without hesitation

Jeremy was safe. He jumped over the tag.

by mrrickyg on May 12, 2008 4:40 PM PDT up 0 recs

...and you know this how?

Remember, at the time we were talking about a 20-year-old coming off an extremely mediocre first stint in the big leagues.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on May 12, 2008 4:53 PM PDT up 0 recs

Sounds like a good question for AN Day ... if BB comes out ...

Assuming he was able to get what he considered comparable value in either package, would he prefer that the talent be consolidated in one or two great players or spread out over a handful of good players?

Unfortunately, I won’t be there to ask it …

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on May 12, 2008 8:39 PM PDT up 0 recs