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Staturday: Pitch, Blease: A Multi-Volume Profile on Pitches and the Pitchers who Throw Them

Introduction

So in the ever-expanding mass of information available to we baseball fans, one of the newer tools available is PitchFX data – data on the speed and break of pitches thrown – data which allows smart guys and gals to identify the pitches a pitcher throws. Rather than relying on occasional observations and anecdotal information, we can look at real, hard data to identify which pitches a pitcher throws, how often he throws them and how fast he throws them.

I’d invite you to play around with them as well. The data I’ll be presenting comes to us courtesy of the good folks at fangraphs.com. Note: it is based on what kind of pitches the data that represents them looks like. It is not perfect.

This article will just present some basic, introductory data. More in-depth analysis will follow in subsequent articles.

Star-divide

 

Overview

 

Thrown

Average

Median

10%+

Ever

Fastball

59.3%

89.6 MPH

89.9 MPH

142

142

Slider

14.3%

82 MPH

82.1 MPH

84

125

Cutter

8.5%

86.2 MPH

86.9 MPH

18

57

Curveball

12.2%

74.7 MPH

75.1 MPH

69

122

Changeup

12.6%

81.3 MPH

81.4 MPH

82

140

Splitter

9.3%

82.9 MPH

82.8 MPH

8

20

Knuckle Ball

41.4%

68.7 MPH

68.7 MPH

1

2

The average pitcher throws a fastball just shy of 60% of the time. You’ll notice that the percentages add up to more than 100%. These are the percentages among pitchers who throw the pitch – ranging from the fastball, which every pitcher throws to the knuckler, which one guy throws 80+% of the time and a second guy (Woody Williams) has thrown it.

10%+ represents the number of pitchers (out of 142 who threw at least 100 innings in 2007) who threw the pitch at least 10% of the time. Ever represents the number of pitchers who threw the pitch at least once.

The splitter was thrown surprisingly uncommonly, with only 8 guys relying on it. 4 of those 8 (Trachsel, Haren, Contreras and Schilling, in descending order) threw the pitch at least 20% of the time, though.

Not surprisingly, virtually everyone has a changeup to offer. Only Fausto Carmona and Tim Wakefield (his change up his underhand, slow pitch softball style) did not throw a single changeup. Danny Haren and Daniel Cabrera were the other pitchers who threw change-ups less than 2% of the time.

Topics that I will attack in future articles include:

  • Profiles of each of the seven pitches
  • Analysis based on the number of pitches pitchers have to offer, ranging from Curt Schilling who throws every pitch except the knuckle ball to a half a dozen guys who pair their fastballs with only other pitch.
  • Analysis of pitcher types, based on the speed and volume of fastballs, ranging from Daniel Cabrera, the purest of the fireballers, to Steve Trachsel, junkballer extraordinaire.


For now, though, I’ll just give you a bit of data and discussion of what A’s pitchers offered in 2007.

Your 2007 Oakland A’s

 

Name FB% FBv SL% SLv CT% CTv
A Brown 57.30% 94.7 25.00% 85.3    
R Harden 62.40% 93.8 2.60% 83.9    
S Casilla 49.60% 93.1 40.70% 85.3    
A Embree 87.10% 92.4 9.70% 79.8    
D Haren 51.70% 91.7 22.20% 81.4 1.60% 88.4
J Blevins 72.40% 91.2        
C Lewis 59.20% 90.7 12.60% 82.7    
H Street 48.20% 90.4 32.50% 84.9    
C Gaudin 70.00% 90.3 21.60% 80.5    
D Meyer 62.20% 90 18.10% 83.7    
J Blanton 54.20% 89.3 16.30% 80.9    
K Calero 36.10% 89 56.80% 79.7    
C Robertson 45.10% 88.5 49.00% 80.7 3.90% 86
S Komine 59.60% 88.5 11.90% 80.7    
D Braden 60.20% 86.9 4.90% 77.7    
J Duchscherer 21.50% 85.5 1.20% 82 44.50% 84
R Flores 52.90% 85 19.90% 78.7    
L DiNardo 69.90% 83.8 1.70% 79.7 2.40% 83.7
J Marshall 82.00% 82.1 8.00% 73.8    

 

Devo,  d ds,s
Name CB% CBv CH% CHv Sep SF% SFv
A Brown 10.30% 80.9 7.50% 85.1 9.6    
R Harden     16.00% 85.8 8 19.10% 85.4
S Casilla     9.70% 85.9 7.2    
A Embree     3.20% 83.6 8.8    
D Haren     1.60% 82.3 9.4 22.90% 84.3
J Blevins 25.70% 73.1 1.90% 84 7.2    
C Lewis 22.50% 79 5.70% 83.7 7    
H Street     19.30% 80.9 9.5    
C Gaudin 0.30% 75.6 8.10% 85 5.3    
D Meyer     19.70% 78.3 11.7    
J Blanton 14.40% 72.9 15.10% 82.1 7.2    
K Calero     7.10% 82.3 6.7    
C Robertson 2.00%      
   
S Komine 14.70% 74.2 13.80% 80.9 7.6    
D Braden 6.80% 74.1 28.20% 74.3 12.6    
J Duchscherer 30.10% 71.1 2.70% 81.4 4.1    
R Flores     27.20% 76.8 8.2    
L DiNardo 11.00% 71.6 15.00% 76.1 7.7    
J Marshall     10.10% 72.5 9.6    

Andrew Brown and Rich Harden brought the most heat. Embree was number four – but threw that decent fastball a remarkable 87% of the time, most in the league among pitchers who threw at least 20 innings. Most of the rest were a really, really slow slider. Not surprisingly, most of the team, led by Joe Blanton, was more or less average. Lenny DiNardo’s fastball was the 5th slowest among pitchers who threw at least 130 innings – a fastball he threw a remarkable 70% of the time.

The staff featured a stunning number of guys who throw sliders, with both Kiko Calero and Conner Robertson relying on the slider more often than the fastball with Casilla not far behind. Among pitchers with at least 100 IP, only Jorge Sosa matched that feat with John Smoltz (45-34) the only pitcher not far behind.

Conversely, fewer pitchers threw the curveball than normal.
Andrew Brown, Huston Street and Dan Haren had the best separation on their changeups – though only Street threw it with any frequency. Duchscherer and Gaudin had the least. Duke did not throw the pitch much, though.

Only two pitchers, Haren and Harden, threw the splitter – but the two of them threw it far more often than most.

Duke basically threw the cutter instead of the fastball, while no one else through it with any frequency.

Comment 33 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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you forgot "thanks xbx for the suggestion"

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Apr 5, 2008 1:33 AM PDT reply actions  

Thanks XBX for the suggestion

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Apr 5, 2008 10:01 AM PDT up reply actions  

zito

2005
fastball 87.3
slider 81.0
change 75.0

2008 (sss, 87 pitches)
fastball 82.7
slider 75.0
change 71.8

fastball --> slider
slider --> changeup

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Apr 5, 2008 2:04 AM PDT reply actions  

i could probably throw a 70mph fastball

possibly with better control than zito.
if the giants get really desperate maybe i'll offer to join their rotation for like $80 million...

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Apr 5, 2008 2:07 AM PDT up reply actions  

{psst, hey Sabes} I can get it up to 75 ...

and have a pretty decent curve ball ...

I'd also work for $1m less than whatever Bhaskar negotiates.

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Apr 5, 2008 10:05 AM PDT up reply actions  

huston street 2005-2008

fastball
2005 51.7% (91.2)
2006 50.9% (91.7)
2007 48.2% (90.4)
2008 75.0% (87.5)

slider (84-86 mph)
39%
39%
33%
10%

change (81-83 mph)
9%
10%
19%
15%

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Apr 5, 2008 2:15 AM PDT reply actions  

i don't think this includes the indians game

we'll see if the fastball mph or slider % increase...

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Apr 5, 2008 2:19 AM PDT up reply actions  

The radar gun was 88-89

for most of his pitches... and my unpracticed scout's eye claimed that he was throwing some sliders, but I might have been mistaking them for changeups thrown to right-handed hitters.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Apr 5, 2008 10:53 AM PDT up reply actions  

The data is available at MLB.com

9 FB, Avg 89.1 mph
89, 91, 87, 89, 90, 90 (hr), 89, 89, 88

2 CH, Avg 80 mph
80, 80

2 SP, Avg 84.5 mph
84, 85,

5 SL, Avg 83.6 mph
84, 83, 83, 85, 83

5 out of the last six pitches he threw were sliders.

link

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Apr 5, 2008 11:13 AM PDT up reply actions  

He snapped off a couple very good sliders Friday

His fastball just still doesn't have much movement - except when Hafner hits it.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Apr 5, 2008 11:30 AM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah. there seems to be somthing going on there ...

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Apr 5, 2008 10:01 AM PDT up reply actions  

links

LL 1 2

minimum of 60 IP

Biggest MPH Increases Since 2005:

1. Greinke, +4.7%
2. Chacon, +4.3%
3. Kim, +3.0%
4. Heilman, +2.6%
5. Hennessey, +2.1%
6. Guerrier, +2.0%
7. Tejeda, +2.0%
8. Glover, +1.9%
9. Pineiro, +1.5%
10. Franklin, +1.4%

Biggest MPH Decreases Since 2005:

1. Jennings, -4.0%
2. Davis, -3.7%
3. Zito, -3.2%
4. Contreras, -3.0%
5. L Hernandez, -2.8%
6. D Wells, -2.7%
7. Maroth, -2.6%
8. Wakefield, -2.5%
9. Fossum, -2.5%
10. Wagner, -2.4%

USSM 1 2


And, finally, if you don’t think the M’s have an organizational mental image of what a reliever looks like, I present this page. Among the top 24 relievers in percentage of fastball thrown, we find Brandon Morrow, Jason Davis, Matt Thornton, J.J. Putz, and Rafael Soriano all in pretty close vicinity to each other. All five also throw a power slider, while Putz and Morrow mix in some splitters. Putz, Thornton, and Davis all have the same body type to boot. If you’re 6′5, throw hard, and have a slider, the M’s are probably interested in sticking you in the 8th inning of ballgames.

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Apr 5, 2008 2:41 AM PDT reply actions  

If you throw hard and have a slider ... (and hopefully can throw strikes)

pretty much anyone would be thrilled to have you in their bullpen. That's pretty much the classic mold for power relievers.

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Apr 5, 2008 10:00 AM PDT up reply actions  

Truth, damn truth...

Great stuff. Helps put in perspective how many guys succeed in the majors with just 88-92mph on the FB.

IMO, it would be a bit more illuminating to see a few simple calculations like median and peak FB velocity, and I'm sure a creative analyst could come up with something like "average FB velocity ,excluding 3-0 counts and blowout wins" (i.e. FB velocity, when it actually matters) to form a more accurate hierarchy of heat.

Also noteworthy - Jamie Moyer: 81.1 MPH average fastball. Wow.

by NRC on Apr 5, 2008 9:10 AM PDT reply actions  

Unfortunately ...

I don't have the detailed data available, to me, only the aggregate, so I can't do those simple calculations.

I doubt there are enough 3-0 counts and blowout wins to change the average any meaningful amount.

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Apr 5, 2008 9:58 AM PDT up reply actions  

I think Harden is confusing the system

I don't think PitchFX, opposing batters, or TV viewers (not this one, certainly) are able to tell his changeup from his splitter. Or at least, they can't distinguish his more sharply-dropping changeups from the splitter. Every time he pitches you hear announcers and opposing batters talking about the split, and every time after the game it turns out he went almost exclusively with the fastball and changeup. I get the impression he hardly ever throws a true splitter any longer.

Does Harden throw a couple different types of changeup? I'm wondering if what are identified as changeups and splitters are two different clusters of data or a single data cluster that straddles the changeup/splitter criteria divide.

by Faust on Apr 5, 2008 9:39 AM PDT reply actions  

That's entirely possible -- like I mentioned ...

the pitch assignments are based on how the pitch behaves, not how it's thrown.

Josh Kalk has a useful way of looking at it. These are based on his own formula, though, and, lo and behold, according to him, Harden doesn't throw the splitter at all -- they're all changeups

As you can see, there's a pretty huge variation in the vertical movement of his "changeup", with almost 15 inches of difference.

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Apr 5, 2008 9:49 AM PDT up reply actions  

I wonder if harden's throwing the splitter less since his injuries

it's a painful and/or injury-prone pitch to throw, isn't it?

would be pretty impressive if he were able to vary his changeup so much, especially if he did it to "make up" for throwing the splitter less

by phastphill on Apr 5, 2008 10:30 AM PDT up reply actions  

Looking at past seasons ...

It seems that he's been throwing the change more at the expense of the slider but the splitter has been fairly stable

link

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Apr 5, 2008 11:04 AM PDT up reply actions  

Perhaps my eye is seeing what it wants to see

but it seems like there's a pretty distinct cluster of "changeups" at about (-4,5) and another cluster centered at around (0, 3).

It's possible that those are two different pitches, although the system might classify both as changeups. Some guys do have multiple versions of the same pitch (Casilla reportedly has two sliders, one that's more like a curve and one that's more like a cut fastball).

And really, a splitter is just a type of changeup, so the difference is kind of splitting (ahem) hairs anyway.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Apr 5, 2008 10:51 AM PDT up reply actions  

d'oh, I missed ... see below ...

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Apr 5, 2008 11:00 AM PDT up reply actions  

It's really more of a knuckle ball thrown at changeup speed ...

the vertical movement distribution seems to be pretty uniform ... what makes there seem to be distinct groupings is the horizontal movement ... though, curiously, the shape is almost mirrored ...

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Apr 5, 2008 11:00 AM PDT reply actions  

You have to think Street is injured

He's too young to be suffering that much of a drop off in velocity, right?

by Tyler Bleszinski on Apr 5, 2008 11:19 AM PDT reply actions  

Pitchers don't follow the a very normal curve

like most hitters do ... Barry Zito, for instance, lost a ton of velocity at a very young age.

Maybe ... maybe not ...

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Apr 5, 2008 11:31 AM PDT up reply actions  

I think another possibility is that

Street is "adapting" to protect his arm from pain, resulting in a loss of velocity and/or movement on his fastball.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Apr 5, 2008 11:36 AM PDT up reply actions  

That would fall under the category of "Street is injured,"

n'est ce pas?

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Apr 5, 2008 11:45 AM PDT up reply actions  

One could say that

1) His pitches have changed due to injury
2) His pitches have changed due to fear of injury, due to injury

More than just ANtics: http://www.louisgray.com/live/

by louismg on Apr 5, 2008 12:01 PM PDT up reply actions  

2 things

First, is Zito the norm or the exception?

Secondly, ZIto could be injured too.

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on Apr 5, 2008 12:13 PM PDT up reply actions  

Zito is not the norm ...

but the point is that there is far less of a norm with pitchers.

Zito is (or has been) almost certainly not injured -- that said, it's entirely possible that he is no longer capable of health -- the ability to perform at peak physical ability. Your car is not going to be able to drive as fast or efficiently after 200k miles as it did after 10k -- that doesn't mean it's broken, it just means it's old. If you buy the wrong car, you might not get top performance past 50k ...

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Apr 5, 2008 12:23 PM PDT up reply actions  

Not to mention he's lead the league or been at the top

in pitches thrown pretty much every year. I'd have to imagine that has to have at least a slight effect on his drop in velocity.

"We were s--, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."

by lenscrafters on Apr 5, 2008 12:41 PM PDT up reply actions  

Not to mention viscocity

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Apr 5, 2008 1:49 PM PDT up reply actions  

It's an old news now. I've seen some details before at myinterracialmatch.c o m There also has some hot stars profile with their photoes and blogs.

by millersbn on Apr 7, 2008 12:56 AM PDT reply actions  

wow...

“It seemed like a fastball,” Manny Ramirez said of the pitch he crushed for a two-run ninth-inning homer Monday. “Maybe it was a change-up.”

Joe Borowski:
05 fastball 40.2% (88.2)
05 change 15.5% (79.4)

08 fastball 49.4% (84.1)
08 change 8.6% (83.0)

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Apr 17, 2008 9:28 AM PDT reply actions  

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