sophomore slump?
by asfansince1989 on Apr 3, 2008 2:55 PM PDT
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PrintWhich 2nd year player on A's roster will have a sophomore slump, given there are so many of them.
I remember in Swish and DJ's sophomore year, I heard some comment abou thow Swish is more likely to regress because he has holes in his swing, and how DJ is a more complete hitter, look how that turned out.
I think having so many young guns in the starting line up, some of them are bound to fall back a little. I think Bart and Buck are likely candidate, Barton had 1 month in the bigs last year, and Buck was in and out with injuries. I wouldn't be surprised now that they are starters, opposing pitchers will start game planning for them more. I don't worry about Suzuki or Hannahan as much because they are not the top-middle of the lineup hitters that pitchers will focus on. I hope Buck and Baton can make adjustment quickly. Cust is also less likely, the way he broke into the league last year, most pitchers probably already had him on their radar last season, and Cust has stayed productive the whole time.
On the other hand, instead of new players emerging on opposing pitcher's radar, we also have players who are written off like Crosby, if he has indeed improved his swing to be able to after outside sliders better, maybe he can catch some pitchers by surprise.
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At the moment, it's tempting to say Buck,
but let's see how he does with a "fresh start" on Friday - he should consider it Opening Day and just try to get off to a good "start".
Barton doesn't count as a sophomore - he's a freshman, even eligible for Rookie of the Year. You could add Andrew Brown to the list, though.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Crosby / Street
I'm still not sold on Crosby's new approach. I would pound fastballs on the inside corner all day long. He's yet to show he can put the barrel of the ball on a decent-to-good fastball on the inside half, and I'm sure scouts will be on it soon. Then, I'm sure Crosby will try to adjust by moving further from the plate, and scouts will adjust accordingly... and Crosby won't.
But anways, I think the "Junior Year" Slump of Huston Street will be the biggest story. Foulke will be the closer in about 1 month.
The only way Foulke is the closer in a month
is if Street is on the DL in a month.
I'm not sure why 3 years of good-to-great pitching doesn't buy a guy more slack for a couple of crummy outings to start a season.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Because Street looks awful
His fastball has no life on it and he's not throwing his slider much - both of which would be consistent with Street nursing pain in his elbow. And if he's healthy, he just isn't throwing anywhere close to well. There is ample cause for concern, IMO. I hope it's just that he needs another week to get to full velocity/life on his stuff - we did start the season early. That's the one thing I'm hanging my hopes on.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Even I am not so pessimistic as to think
that a month's worth of serious elbow pain would not cause either Street OR the brass to put the guy on the shelf.
Although I will admit that the A's medical staff has outdone itself in idiocy before.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Can't afford to lose Street
Looking at the bullpen it doesn't look very deep, given that only Blanton in our starting staff can be trusted to go (somewhat) deep into the game, other starters all have health/experience concerns that would prevent them from pitch >6 innings/game. And even Blanton may not have the dominant stuff in most games to go really deep. Then DiNardo is the long relief guy so we can't work him every day. This leaves ~2-3 innings of work almost every game for Casilla, Brown, Foulke, Embree and Street. That's a lot of innings for these guys to handle.
by asfansince1989 on Apr 3, 2008 6:03 PM PDT up reply actions
The plus part is that more than usual
can handle 8th/9th inning work - I'd put Embree, Foulke, Brown, and Casilla in that group, and that's a lot.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
We know that someone will get hurt or, if not, traded
at some point to make room for Blevins, Devine and/or Braden.
So I actually expect to see something more like 4 full seasons, plus 6 "Scott Proctor-esque half-seasons". One of those three will probably scuffle, but Calero's in the mix, too.
(I can't get over how funny that whole Scott Proctor situation is. Joe Torre is like some kind of demented, vindictive angel hovering over his career. He finally gets traded out from under the guy, and then 6 months later he shows up as the new manager.)
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
PT, my fear would be that Street isn't telling
We call it "Dan Meyer Syndrome".
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Definitely Buck
"I'm not going to buy my kids an encyclopedia. Let them walk to school like I did." -Yogi Berra
When the A's were in Japan...
something didn't look right. I made the prediction and I'm sticking to it... Ellis will leadoff more games this year than Buck.
The only thing that would make me change my mind is if Ellis starts hitting 3rd!!!!!
"I'm not going to buy my kids an encyclopedia. Let them walk to school like I did." -Yogi Berra
I think Ellis is a good leadoff hitter against LHP
but not against RHP - he should really bat 6th or 7th against RHP, if we had a better offense behind him.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Its been 4 games
when we are in mid may and they are still struggling then you can say they are in a sophmore slump
He (or she) is not saying anyone is in an actual slump...
just asking for guesses/predictions on who might become slumpy.
"There is an HR in Hanrahan." ~ mikeA
"Slumpy"
That's the new mascot once Lew dumps Stomper.
As reassuring as Bud's words were, the dulcet tone of his voice and his dashing appearance really sealed the deal for me. ~ GreenNGoldSooner @('.')@
Then and now
Last year from ST on, the thing about Buck was how quick his hands were. He could wait and still drive through the hitting zone. This year his hands look out of synch with his body and are not as fast. Hopefully Ty VanB can fix this.
teaser subhead for that story on the main page
"A's give hitless Buck series finale off"
I think his new Erica Jongified nickname should be "The Zipless Buck."
As reassuring as Bud's words were, the dulcet tone of his voice and his dashing appearance really sealed the deal for me. ~ GreenNGoldSooner @('.')@
Is it only a coincidence that
Kobe Bryant's picture is at the bottom of that page?
I am sure there are a few ladies here who wouldn't mind a Zipless F**k with Zipless Buck
I'm here to talk about the past.
applies equally well to Kobe or Travis
"there is no power game"
As reassuring as Bud's words were, the dulcet tone of his voice and his dashing appearance really sealed the deal for me. ~ GreenNGoldSooner @('.')@
Based on my Batted Ball Profiles results,
I identify Kurt Suzuki as the hitter most likely to slump in his sophomore season. His line drive rate was not very high, and his power spike looks like it was fluky.
He's going to have to improve his underlying performance to put up even the same numbers as he did last year (when he was a below-average hitter, though not below-average among catchers).
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Do you know how stable those are?
I would expect that LD% to go up somewhat.
The A's colors are green and gold.
No...
it's hard to tell how much to regress something like that toward the mean. I don't have the statistical chops to calculate how much of a given LD rate is luck and how much is player-controlled. But they're not random-- some hitters hit many more line drives than others.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
just watching Zooks so far ...
... his swing looks very Scutariffic. Not a good sign for maintaining/increasing that LD%.
As reassuring as Bud's words were, the dulcet tone of his voice and his dashing appearance really sealed the deal for me. ~ GreenNGoldSooner @('.')@
I'm not sure what you mean by that
I like Zooks's swing, although I don't have any confidence in that judgment. I also think Scutaro had a good swing, but he's just too small to translate the swing into success. And if he duplicated Scutaro's LD%, that would be great...
The A's colors are green and gold.
I like Zooks' approach -
he keeps his swing short and looks to drive the ball where it's pitched, both good signs. Buck's swing just looks long right now - hopefully that is quickly fixable.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Speaking of long swings
There's a Sweeney with a brutally long swing and his first name isn't Mike.
The A's colors are green and gold.
In R. Sweeney's case I think he's just
playing the odds, figuring that if he swings long enough he might hit the ball eventually. So far no luck, though.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Scutariffic
If he can put up Scutaro number at the C spot, having the fresh legs to swipe a few bases here and there, and improve on his catcher skills, I'll be more than happy. When he 1st came up last year, he really look lost catching, but he's improved a lot quickly. He's still got a lot to learn, as the swipe tag in the Boston game 3 shows, but I'm sure he can get there given how fast he caught on being the starting catcher last year.
by asfansince1989 on Apr 3, 2008 4:49 PM PDT up reply actions
Swipe bases?
I'm sorry, but Kurt Suzuki, while he may be young and not overweight, is simply not a fast runner.
His professional career high in steals is five, in the minor leagues.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Maybe it's a small sample size
But Suzuki appears to be the only A who's attempted a steal this year, 1 out of 2. Maybe they are just taking a shot that no one is expecting Suzuki to steal. To be fair, the CS in the Tue Boston game looked like a miss swing on a hit/run. When I said a few I meant a few, not even several, just a few, even attempts/fake steals are fine, coming from the C position at the bottom of the lineup. I like the flexibility it gives the A's to play small ball when they have to, in cases where they get into a pitcher's duel like on Tue. It didn't work out on Tue, but I like the fact that they tried.
by asfansince1989 on Apr 3, 2008 5:40 PM PDT up reply actions
I don't
The hit-and-run is a breathtakingly stupid play. It combines the worst aspects of basestealing and slap hitting into a play which usually manages to nullify the putative benefits of either one.
If you're going to steal a base, steal the f***ing base. Or, if you're slow, don't. Please.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
I would agree that
on that particular play it was a bad decision given how badly Buck was swinging at the time, may even go as far as "breathtakingly stupid". But I won't fault Suzuki for bing fast enough for them to consider a hit/run. And I won't go as far to write the hit/run off entirely for this team.
I'd say that the team still has a way to go to learn to play well, but there are a whole lot of unknowns on this team, trying something new and failing is natural, and what better time to try it now, when we are rebuilding. What do they have to lose, 3rd place in the division?
And as far as the piece that we got in Suzuki as catcher, I'm pretty happy. Maybe it's lowered expectations, thanks Kendall!
by asfansince1989 on Apr 3, 2008 6:20 PM PDT up reply actions
I love the hit-and-run,
but only with the right guys. With an Eckstein, or Kendall, or (hopefully) Denorfia, you can turn a lame hitter into a useful one and go first to third even without a speedburner on the bases. To me, it's a beautiful thing to watch a ball guided through a vacated spot, with the runner cruising into third base without a throw.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
You know why it's beautiful?
The same reason the Grand Canyon is beautiful. Namely, it's incredibly frigging rare.
If the A's start trying to turn Chris Denorfia into some kind of glorified softball player, so help me God, I will start watching Arena League football instead.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Works for me!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Which part...?
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
For starters, a glorified softball player
sounds like a .692 batting average waiting to happen! And I hear Arena Football can be quite exciting.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
.692 batting average?
Apparently you haven't been watching enough softball lately.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Apparently you haven't been
the park near my house, when a drunk handyman is playing SS.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
He missed 3 or so pitches from Harden
that didn't bounce - maybe that's a tribute to Harden's stuff (late movement) but it also suggests we'll have to accept a few passed balls for a while.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Red Sox hitters missed a lot of pitches from Harden
I wouldn't worry about it. I don't think any human can catch his changeup.
Prince: This bores me. Is anyone up for a game of basketball?
If they were splitters,
supposedly his splitter has knuckleball-type action, which I imagine would make it extremely difficult to catch.
Not having watched the game, I can't say if this was the cause or not, but it could have been.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
I think two of them were "spucklers"
The third was a fastball, but maybe one with "even Manny can't see it" movement.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Buck
gotta be Buck and I don't think there is much doubt. What I do wonder however is how many people were discounting the possibility of Carlos Gonzalez getting a spot on the roster without sufficient time in AAA and yet no one seems to remember the fact that Buck played nearly no AAA (2 games) ball either. He is definitely bound to slump and I dare say may need to get that time at AAA at some point.
"Just looking at Lackey's face, you just want to beat him" -Ray Fosse
AAA is not Purgatory
It's not a requirement that everyone has to spend a certain amount of time there.
Buck got promoted to the bigs unexpectedly because of massive injury problems and then hit way, way better than anyone expected once he arrived. Once a guy's shown you he can hit in the majors, there's little to be gained by wasting his time on an easier level.
For all we know, the same thing could happen with Gonzalez-- but it's not likely, thus the "percentage play" is to send him to AAA rather than the majors.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Street only pitched 2 innings in AAA
He's certainly good enough to play in the majors. But he also has difficulty consistently staying healthy and performing at a high level.
Maybe it's my personal wild guess, AAA may not be a necessary stop if the player is proven to be talented enough, but by skipping it, they might be missing experience/training to deal with the physical stress playing professional ball places on their body, especially if they are young and their bodies are still growing and changing. After thinking more, I'm leaning towards the opinion that (not) making adjustment to MLB opponent may not be the biggest threat to cause one of them to regress, but the physical injuries and the related performance inconsistency is more worrisome.
by asfansince1989 on Apr 4, 2008 11:18 AM PDT up reply actions
It's kind of hard to tell
There's plenty of research indicating that rapidly amping up a young pitcher's workload tends to cause him to break down at unusually high rates. Making a guy throw more than 30 innings over his previous career high is a bad idea.
I've never seen anyone attempt this kind of research for position players, though. I don't know-- it could be that rapidly increasing someone's games played, or at-bats, or whatever, might cause them to break down more frequently than guys who are eased into the lifestyle-- but it could also be that this is not the case at all.
Certainly in the case of the Patrol Craft, he's been playing full season ball (120-130 games played) for the past 3 seasons, so there's not much reason to worry there.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
No argument here
and I am saying Buck had a pretty small sample size to quote earlier arguments in the bigs last year due to all his injuries and he could have been looking at playing above his head. There seems to be some belief that he is an established big leaguer and I am not so sure that is the case. More likely he is a guy who had a hot cup of coffee last year in his short time and now is showing the holes of having skipped a level and his holes being exploited.
"Just looking at Lackey's face, you just want to beat him" -Ray Fosse
I predict no sophomore slumps...
Buck will be better than last year. Zooks takes several steps forward toward become the A's catcher for the next 7 to 10 years. Barton's not a soph yet, but he'll also start pounding the ball. Brown may be the only one that comes close to a sophomore slump.
How do I know this? The same way I knew Kansas City would win the AL Central. It's so obvious. What... errr... you say I didn't predict that the Royals would win the Central? Nevermind.
Go A's!
The Royals are just incredibly lucky
that the season ends today!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
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