The Fall of the Big Three

by Blez on Apr 29, 2008 2:55 PM PDT

Actually, it's more of the fall of the Big Two. Tim Hudson is perfectly fine in Atlanta, thank you. Well, mostly. He has never come close to how he pitched in 2002 and 2003 in Atlanta, but he's still been damn good, outside of 2006.

But the unbelievable fall of Mark Mulder and the now bullpen-bound Barry Zito has been something that I could have never predicted. It seems so long ago that Mychael Urban was holding a party celebrating the release of his book called "Aces" and two of the three have been anything but since leaving the green and gold.

Something tells me that Billy Beane has learned when to cut and run with these pitchers. You could see that Zito was hurting in his last year with the A's. Granted he got along with what he still had at the time but he was losing velocity as the season progressed and he's never been one to have the best control. I mean, how many times did we have to hear him talk about being Fearless in the Zone while he was driving A's fans to fitz?

As for Mulder, he's obviously had injury issues and maybe his recent time on the DL will get him back to the pitcher he once was. It's funny because I always thought that Mulder was the most talented of the three pitchers. He had the body frame, the mechanics and the variety of pitches which made me think he was going to be the best long-term bet. Yet he was the one who broke down first. Course we could all see something was happening with him at the end of 2004 when the A's probably should've started a green Joe Blanton instead of a suddenly fragile-psyche Mulder in a crucial game.

Now the A's have rebuilt their pitching staff with pretty young pitchers in the Greg Smith's and Dana Eveland's of the world and a ton more young starting pitching coming up. I often wonder what would've happen to our green and gold had Beane not made the decision to trade away Mulder and Hudson and let Zito walk as most GMs probably would not have done. Perhaps Beane is stating that pitching is inherently a younger man's game and guys who haven't pitched tons of innings. The A's are still the top team in the AL in terms of starting pitching ERA and are second in all of baseball.

The thing is, they wouldn't be there if they still had the Big Three. Not even close.

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Lead by example, Blez.

Nice diary.

Zito: $14,500,000
Mulder: $7,000,000
Hudson: $15,500,000 = $37,000,000

2008 Oakland A’s: $47,967,000

by HigherPie on Apr 29, 2008 3:09 PM PDT reply reply 0 recs

what's crazy is

that St.Louis gave an injured Mulder a 2-yr contract.

by sf drift king on Apr 29, 2008 6:41 PM PDT up reply reply 0 recs

Good Faith

I think they did the same thing w/ Cris Carpenter, and it paid dividends (World Series Ring). I saw that Mulder is rehabbing in the minors (this week). I hope he makes a great comeback.

by Colorado Fan on Apr 29, 2008 9:31 PM PDT up reply reply 0 recs

Mulder was hurting...

...with the A’s. I don’t think he ever recovered from the broken hip. When he came back, he was good for a couple of months, then was horrendous, losing it completely. When Beane traded him, his value was peaking, but those of us who watched him when he first came up, then after the injury, could see he wasn’t a great bet for the Cardinals. Luckily, Jocketty was blind to that. I think Billy would’ve traded Mulder even if the six-year free agency rules didn’t apply.

Hudson, on the other hand, was made for the Oakland Coliseum. I think he would have continued to prosper and be the team leader on the A’s.

At least that’s my take.

by richwol1 on Apr 29, 2008 3:31 PM PDT reply reply 0 recs

To Answer Your Question of What Would Have Happened if...

...they all remained. We’d be sitting here looking as stupid as the Giants or the Cards after their signings of Mulder and Zito respectively. Beane has been criticized for the very thing he does so well. That is, his window of opportunity runs in 6 year cycles for players and as long as they are productive, regardless the position, he’s going to remain competitive. The downside is that our memories need to remain as short as his in that sense.

"I've been accused of using too many words...I suppose that's like accusing Mozart of using too many notes." Bill King

by Gerard on Apr 29, 2008 3:32 PM PDT reply reply 0 recs

i think that Zito and Mulder would have done better than they’re doing with their respective clubs had they remained. For starters, Zito wouldn’t have had to deal with being the 126 million dollar man in SF, and would have actually had a supporting cast and a decent bullpen, so his pitchcount issues would have been negated, and he wouldn’t have to throw a shutout to get a win like Giants pitchers do. Mulder still would have had some injury problems, but our relative depth in starting pitching over the past several years (duke, saarloos, dinardo, braden for one start) would have probably helped him be able to fully rehab some injuries the Cards may have rushed him out for. That said, we made out of that trade very well with Haren and I wouldn’t for a second change it up.

by MaineAthletic on Apr 29, 2008 3:41 PM PDT up reply reply 0 recs

SO...

It’s the “dealing with being the 126 million dollar man” that has dropped his fast ball velocity to 82 mph?

by jeffro on Apr 29, 2008 4:13 PM PDT up reply reply 0 recs

I Think It's Unfair To Judge Athletes Based Upon...

...how much $$ is attached to their name. Qualitatively, ANY team that would have signed ZIto regardless the dollar amount would be regretting that decision. Just b/c it’s the Giants (whom I despise) doesn’t make me feel any better. Zito and Mulder have always been ernest in their efforts to compete at high levels.

"I've been accused of using too many words...I suppose that's like accusing Mozart of using too many notes." Bill King

by Gerard on Apr 29, 2008 4:22 PM PDT up reply reply 0 recs

I think...

that the money issue with Zito is more about Barry’s psyche, and how having to be the man with the contract that size, and then not doing as well as we know Barry would’ve liked to be doing can cause permanent damage to one’s mental state. That’s Zito in a nutshell ;) True, the skills have declined, but I do think the size of the contract has probably started to wear on Barry, above and beyond those declining skills.

Mike "lego my" Gallego

by catfish hunter on Apr 30, 2008 9:59 PM PDT up reply reply 0 recs

great post

I’ve always told my friends (giants, yankees, and red sox fans) that I don’t mind losing players because usually they seem to decline after leaving the green and gold. Only time will tell how the Haren and Swisher deals go (but I certainly wish them all the best, except when playing the A’s. Both were among my favorite players), but it already seems that the crop we harvested from Chicago and Arizona will perform quite nicely. It’s always good to see Hudson do well (I am actually really ticked at the new MLB tv contract because now we can’t see all of his starts on TBS), as he was my favorite player during his time in Oakland, and just an all out great player. He’s the only one I’ve come to truly miss out of the Big 3, Giambi (could you imagine the competition for steroids headlines in the Chronicle had both he and Bonds been in the Bay Area), and Tejada (all 3? oh brother!).

by MaineAthletic on Apr 29, 2008 3:37 PM PDT reply reply 0 recs

I agree with the whole "not minding if players leave"

except when it came to Swish and Haren too.

"Monta is the MAN." -Bob Fitzgerald

by WarriorForLife on Apr 30, 2008 7:13 AM PDT up reply reply 0 recs

I mostly agree

I wouldn’t exactly say that “I don’t mind” when they leave, but I certainly have gotten used to it. And I definitely still root for Haren and Swisher. We couldn’t have asked for anything more from them while they were in the green and gold and I miss seeing them play on a regular basis, but I hope they have long and successful careers, albeit not against us, of course.

by TempletonPeck on May 1, 2008 2:37 PM PDT up reply reply 0 recs

Beane is the master economist

I think he’s just acknowledging the fact that pitchers are more affordable when they’re on the rise as opposed to the decline. Assuming an average bell curve scenario and comparing the same level of productivity on either side of their peak, a “proven” pitcher will always command more $$$ due to free-agency and past performance.
For instance, compare a Joe Blanton to a Greg Maddux and you’ll see that despite being a better pitcher at this stage, a Cupcakes will always earn less… that’s not to say that his actual value is less, just his salary. This is why the smart move is to extract the actual value via trade and thus come out ahead.

by Sacred#24 on Apr 29, 2008 3:51 PM PDT reply reply 0 recs

I really, really miss Huddy.

Mulder and Zito, not so much.

by mikev on Apr 29, 2008 3:51 PM PDT reply reply 0 recs

ditto that

by rebus on Apr 29, 2008 3:55 PM PDT up reply reply 0 recs

agreed

i still wear my huddy jersey to every game

President of the Joey Devine fan club as of 1/15/08. Accepting applications for other positions. "He has no equivalent." -Paul DePodesta on Jeremy Brown

by flipgatey3 on Apr 29, 2008 3:58 PM PDT up reply reply 0 recs

I would, but my dog ate it...

..so the moral of the story is, remember to bring your clothes in after you go swimming, or your dog might eat your Hudson jersey.

I learned that one the hard way.

"You have to have a catcher or you'll have all passed balls."- Casey Stengel

by Gaijin_Suketto on Apr 29, 2008 5:09 PM PDT up reply reply 0 recs

Great topic...

...and one that is worthy of discussing.

One of Beane’s most valuable and underrated abilities is being able to know when to cut-and-run on a player and let him deteriorate on somebody else’s team. Not saying that he wouldn’t have wanted to keep some of the ones that got away, but he has shown many times he will go against popular opinion when he feels the need.

Fans tend to be too emotionally tied to their favorite players, me included, and Beane seems to resist that. Think about it, if we had Giambi & Tejada & Mulder & Zito & several others that were fan favorites, like so many fans wanted, we’d be watching an old and deteriorating team heading nowhere but down. Instead, we have a young exciting team and honest reason for excitement for what is to come in the future.

Not that I don’t have some concerns and disappointments (I still miss Scutaro & RHernandez), and some moves haven’t worked out, but overall his record has been pretty good.

I also thought that Mulder would be the most likely of the three to have long-term success. I was p.o.’d at the time when Blanton wasn’t started in that crucial game in 2004, and I still look back and feel like that one decision may have possibly cost them the post-season more than any other single thing.

I liked Zito at the time, but felt he was always psycholigically weak, and I believe it’s more the mental weight of his contract that is his problems now.

I do have one fear/concern. When people were let go via free agency & trades, and we got people like Blanton & Swisher & Haren, et al, it was with the idea that we’d be watching these guys for several years… at least until they were near free agency. That didn’t happen. Many of these people were traded after only a few years. Now, I know there are other factors in work here, but I just hope that Beane doesn’t get too enamored with the whole rebuilding process. IOW, people are talking about watching these guys until 2013 or whatever, and I hope we’re not experiencing deja vu after 2010.

Some read stats. Fans actually watch the games.

by UncleLeo on Apr 29, 2008 4:22 PM PDT reply reply 2 recs

Eventually Beane will grow so enamored of rebuilding

that he will actually trade players away before he has even acquired them.

That’s right: Beane will invent the short sale for baseball players.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Apr 29, 2008 4:39 PM PDT up reply reply 0 recs

short sale?

I thought he already did that by trading Menechino and Scutaro.

And what did we do once we discovered a rift in the fourth dimension? We launched a monkey into it. @('.')@

by monkeyball on Apr 29, 2008 5:23 PM PDT up reply reply 0 recs

Just imagine what they'll call it

when he trades “David Eckstein 6 months from now” for 2 minor league pitchers.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Apr 29, 2008 6:34 PM PDT up reply reply 0 recs

Dang

I thought PT’s comment was a nice set-up to bash Sal, Robb or Ohad but I can’t see doing that after dropping a Menechino punch line

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Apr 30, 2008 11:25 AM PDT up reply reply 0 recs

and the thing about dropping a Menechino punchline ...

... is you don’t have to drop it far.

And what did we do once we discovered a rift in the fourth dimension? We launched a monkey into it. @('.')@

by monkeyball on Apr 30, 2008 11:43 AM PDT up reply reply 0 recs

27 year old aces - the new holy grail?

Perhaps Beane is stating that pitching is inherently a younger man’s game and guys who haven’t pitched tons of innings.

Blez, this sort of idea has definitely been kicking around my head for a while now. In the case of the Big Three, there is the obvious financial factor (that Beane couldn’t afford to sign them as free agents). But take a look at the recent history of the Yankees and Red Sox (two franchises with no financial restrictions to speak of).

The Yankees have spent most of the millenium to date tossing money at veteran pitchers and famously not winning the World Series, despite good offenses. Perhaps their problem is that the pitchers they need are the ones on the good side of 28, but those pitchers generally haven’t hit free agency and aren’t available.

The Red Sox, on the other hand, gave up a pretty serious prospect in exchange for Beckett, but they are probably feeling okay about it (even though Hanley rules really hard). Also, there’s all the money that they spent to sign Daisuke, who is still only 28 (Blez, I know that you mentioned innings pitched as well as age, and by that metric Daisuke might not look as good). Weighing against my theory is the 2004 Red Sox team, where Arroyo was the only starter younger than 30. (And I haven’t bothered to do any sort of systematic study of this at all)

Anyway, we get to the current season where both the Yankees and Red Sox are relying heavily on very young pitching. It might hurt them somewhat this season, but maybe they have figured out that the most important and elusive piece of a championship is the 26-27-28 year old ace? It’s just a straw-man theory that I’m tossing out here. Comments?

by colin on Apr 29, 2008 4:30 PM PDT reply reply 1 recs

Colin i agree with you 100%

I think they Yankees and Red sox have finally started to realize that you dont have to buy a championship team to be successful….But I hope they still keep buying their bust so we can remain the only smart team in baseball….ahhhahahah

Brandon Marshall is a BEAST!!!!

by TommyTSlice on Apr 29, 2008 4:58 PM PDT up reply reply 0 recs

This would be an interesting Staturday topic

Maybe in a steroid-testing environment, you also don’t want the older “used up” pitcher and the younger guy who doesn’t have all those miles on him looks a hell of a lot more attractive. It’s like getting a car that is brand new. You can’t take it over 55 for the first 1,000 miles, but you’re thinking it could be pretty reliable. Zito had pitched more innings than any other pitcher in baseball since 2001, I believe. I could be wrong on that one, but I think I read that just today. That’s getting a young car, age wise, but you’re also getting a car that has 200,000 miles on it even though it’s only two years old.

Course, then you have to assume that you’re going to get inconsistency and possibly a prospect who doesn’t blossom into what people expected. The Yankees are finding out about that inconsistency now with Kennedy and Hughes. I imagine the microscope carries a lot more heat in the New York terrarium as well, which sometimes can burn a young guy.

by Blez on Apr 29, 2008 5:29 PM PDT up reply reply 0 recs

Hughes has just been booed off the mound after being knocked

around by the Tigers. Can’t be good for a 21 year old to suffer that.

by OldhamA on Apr 29, 2008 5:56 PM PDT up reply reply 0 recs

absolutely not

President of the Joey Devine fan club as of 1/15/08. Accepting applications for other positions. "He has no equivalent." -Paul DePodesta on Jeremy Brown

by flipgatey3 on Apr 30, 2008 9:43 AM PDT up reply reply 0 recs

dude that's four hours of driving a day

at 60 miles an hour, 365 days a year.

I remember an article in the last six months, criticizing the A’s for “overusing” their young pitchers, leading to their early demise, Zito being the prime example.

The sensible counterargument was that it makes perfect sense for a team to use a pitcher as much as possible while he’s around. Beane knew Zito was a limited resource, and tapped him for all he was worth.

by phastphill on Apr 29, 2008 10:07 PM PDT up reply reply 0 recs

Sensible Counterargument

What is Beane supposed to do? Pull Zito after 100 pitches every time? Zito had a successful run w/ the Oakland A’s. He wasn’t overused, alas, Kerry Wood or Mark Prior.

I have a feeling that Zito will comeback. His mechanics seem waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy off. Way off, like he’s in a hurry, or somethin’. I’m off to study some tape.

by Colorado Fan on Apr 29, 2008 10:21 PM PDT up reply reply 0 recs

Beane doesn’t pull pitchers, but those three dudes were on a serious pitch count. At all times.

"These Boston People Are AWFUL"

by Brillz on Apr 29, 2008 11:32 PM PDT up reply reply 0 recs

Yeah, I would only call zito (or any pitcher) "overused"

if it affected his performance for the team using him. Some might say that Gaudin was overused in 2007, hence his decline near the end of the season. Zito wasn’t ‘overused’ from the A’s perspective … but maybe he was “used up” from the Giants’ perspective. Or from their retrospective, I guess :)

by phastphill on Apr 30, 2008 1:06 PM PDT up reply reply 0 recs

GAUDIN

had a hip injury.

"The two of them deserve each other. One's a born liar, the other's convicted."

by SwampyD on May 1, 2008 12:31 PM PDT up reply reply 0 recs

You have a lot of good ideas to consider

It’s really tough to use players from past history, too. Stop-action video means both hitters and pitchers can benefit from constant review here in the 21st century. This is new in the last ten years (well, at least, abundant usage). Which category, what types of pitchers benefit the most from “video refinement”? Does it mean a faster route to proficiency at a younger age, but no longevity? Does the ability to throw algorithms at veteran pitchers’ pitch profiles mean hitters have a better chance of “guessing right” on pitchers, as they mature? Or study pitchers intently for “tipping pitches” quirks?

Much to ponder…

"I never predict anything, and I never will." Paul Gascoigne, English footballer

by One won lost won on Apr 29, 2008 10:22 PM PDT up reply reply 0 recs

Tejada

I think he’s pretty different from the rest. While I agreed with the decision at the time I think we would have been better off with him rather than Chavez. Crosby plays excellent defense but obviously has been injury prone and a disappointment at the plate. The upgrade he would have provided at SS might have gotten the A’s a world series. He’s older than previously thought and has steroid controversy but has been a very good player the whole time including this year. I don’t know who would have played 3B but maybe trading Crosby for a similarly valued 3B would have been a better option in hindsight.

RIVER CATS: AAA CHAMPS!

by niallmack on Apr 29, 2008 5:48 PM PDT reply reply 0 recs

"older than previously thought"

is funny in so many ways.

by phastphill on Apr 29, 2008 10:08 PM PDT up reply reply 0 recs

Eveland and Smith are young

it’s a matter of taste whether or not they’re pretty

by OaklandSi on Apr 29, 2008 6:34 PM PDT reply reply 0 recs

The 4 Aces

Zito was clearly done here. It’s not armchair quarterbacking – I was only one of about 200 people on AN who shook their heads and chuckled when the Giants signed Zito. Barry’s right about the need to be more aggressive, but he never changes. I’ve never seen a pitcher work so many 0-2 counts full and then walk the guy. And with Zito the 0-2 pitch is very often 18 inches out of the strike zone. It’s like he’s never realized that the league gave up swinging at the big hook years ago.

Gosh I miss Huddy. What a stud competitor he was.

Mulder I wished good things for but man that trade is one of the greatest trades of all time. For Mulder the A’s got Haren, who was fabulous, but also Calero, who was terrific before he got hurt, and they got Barton. What a complete and total steal. And then for Haren the A’s got all of these other great guys. In financial terms the Mulder trade is what’s known as a “life annuity” – you get a check as long as you’re alive!

I was surprised Blez didn’t mention Harden, because as much as we talked about the Big 3, everyone agreed that Harden had the best stuff of all of them.

As good as Beane has been at this stuff, winning far more than losing, it already breaks my heart to think that Ellis will be gone next year. I think the A’s will really, really miss that guy.

by solotar on Apr 29, 2008 9:37 PM PDT reply reply 0 recs

Greg Smith = Huddy

Mentally. The stuff is quite the opposite, but from what I’ve seen from Greg Smith… dude is a gamer.

by Colorado Fan on Apr 29, 2008 10:22 PM PDT up reply reply 0 recs

I agree, Smith is a top pitcher

He is =really= pitching IMO….I mean, changing speeds, locations, shakes off the inevitable “bad stuff (basehits, errors, 3-run HRs)”, all hugely impressive.

"I never predict anything, and I never will." Paul Gascoigne, English footballer

by One won lost won on Apr 29, 2008 10:27 PM PDT up reply reply 0 recs

"dude is a gamer"...

don’t say the “g” word around here. you’d make krukow too happy knowing a’s fans understand that term… :X

"This is NOT rebuilding. Billy Beane reloaded." -rev

by ST on Apr 30, 2008 12:01 AM PDT up reply reply 1 recs

"gamer" g word

I don’t find “gamer” NEARLY as offensive when its used on pitchers. Being clutch and reaching down for that little something extra, and having “gamer” strategic instincts actually applies to pitchers.

Jeremy was safe. He jumped over the tag.

by mrrickyg on Apr 30, 2008 11:37 AM PDT up reply reply 0 recs

I have the same thought when I watch him pitch

He doesn’t look like Huddy, he doesn’t throw or pitch like Huddy—but he has a Huddy Vibe on the mound.

And what did we do once we discovered a rift in the fourth dimension? We launched a monkey into it. @('.')@

by monkeyball on Apr 30, 2008 10:11 AM PDT up reply reply 0 recs

It must be that rugged, slightly askew skull of his

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Apr 30, 2008 11:19 AM PDT up reply reply 0 recs

kenny rogers-esque

Jeremy was safe. He jumped over the tag.

by mrrickyg on Apr 30, 2008 1:22 PM PDT up reply reply 0 recs

agree

Greg Smith quickly became my favorite guy in the current rotation. It was his composure after a tough first inning in Toronto, in his first big league start. He’s really mature for his age, and with his solid approach I think he’ll only get better.

by phastphill on Apr 30, 2008 1:00 PM PDT up reply reply 0 recs

+1

Smith has really won me over pretty quickly as a favorite.

Some read stats. Fans actually watch the games.

by UncleLeo on Apr 30, 2008 2:01 PM PDT up reply reply 0 recs

Who?

I was surprised Blez didn’t mention Harden, because as much as we talked about the Big 3, everyone agreed that Harden had the best stuff of all of them.

He would need to have at least pitched a majority of the time to be considered an ‘ace’. Merely having ‘good stuff’ isn’t enough.

Some read stats. Fans actually watch the games.

by UncleLeo on Apr 30, 2008 8:02 AM PDT up reply reply 0 recs

So what will happen to Greg Smith when Harden comes back?

I hope he stays because that kid(funny I say kid, when i’m 18, lol) is awesome!!! He’s a rookie and pretty much, well almost, mostly owned the Angels last night, only 3 hits on an offense that is 2nd in the league in BA! Wow!!!!! Are they going to send him down?

oAkLaNd AtHlEtIcS!!
It's only Spring Clean for the May Queen. Call the Gardener!

by LiZaRdReVoLuTiOn on Apr 30, 2008 6:34 AM PDT reply reply 0 recs

Fierce!!!!

oAkLaNd AtHlEtIcS!!
It's only Spring Clean for the May Queen. Call the Gardener!

by LiZaRdReVoLuTiOn on Apr 30, 2008 6:35 AM PDT up reply reply 0 recs

You'd hope not. He makes the most sense though, logistically.

by OldhamA on Apr 30, 2008 10:04 AM PDT up reply reply 0 recs

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!(on knees)

oAkLaNd AtHlEtIcS!!
It's only Spring Clean for the May Queen. Call the Gardener!

by LiZaRdReVoLuTiOn on Apr 30, 2008 10:29 AM PDT up reply reply 0 recs

start praying for the six man rotation

or just rest in confidence that harden’s next tour will be as brief as usual.

by phastphill on Apr 30, 2008 1:03 PM PDT up reply reply 0 recs

Braden back down, Duke to the pen?

by mikev on Apr 30, 2008 10:54 AM PDT up reply reply 0 recs

Think they're trying to bump up Duke's value.

His best bet to do that is as a starter. I’ve no qualms with the idea in theory mind.

by OldhamA on Apr 30, 2008 1:34 PM PDT up reply reply 0 recs

Classic Beane

The choices Beane makes are always borderline crazy. I consider his line of thinking one of those genius/insane types. We’ll never know what would of happened but I do attribute leaving Oakland in general is what took the savage out of the three. Who knows maybe Billy’s spidey sense was tingling and he knew it was time to toss em’.....

From the cheap seats talkin' smack. Oakland underdog

by Stacks on Apr 30, 2008 6:18 PM PDT reply reply 0 recs

Smitty is awesome!

have been watching in chicago (my vice – the season package) and watched the game last night against the Angels – very nice. Also caught the game here in Chicago – dude reminds me a lot of Huddy in the mental / mound presence kinda thing.

I’m digging Gaudin a lot lately too – pretty nasty the last outing..

Mike "lego my" Gallego

by catfish hunter on Apr 30, 2008 10:05 PM PDT reply reply 0 recs