Bay Area commerce and the move to Fremont

by The Dogfather on Apr 28, 2008 3:13 PM PDT Comment 66 comments

Well, the Bay Area's Bestest Newspapers [retch] came out with their regular 50 Biggest Companies reports on Sunday link , toting revenues and profits for both the 50 largest businesses in the East Bay (generously defined) and the Bay Area at-large. Of course, they misspelled a word in the headline ("trial" meaning "trail"), but hey, they don't call themselves the Bay Area's bestest proofreaders, and I think I know where they made their most recent cuts. But I digress, hoping I haven't made similar blunders in this here fanpost.

I was surprised at the results, and thought I'd share 'em on which for folks to chew. Now, I'm perfectly well aware that this is only one measure of economic activity, but if we concede that the A's are organized and intended to be a profit-making entity, then these kinds of numbers are not insignificant.

For the Bay Area at-large, I would divide the geography as follows:

SF= SF, SSF and North Bay

Silicon Valley = peninsula, San Jose, Fremont, Hayward, Union City

East Bay = everything else east of most of the bridges

The Top 50 settle into those areas as follows:

SF = 14

SV = 30

EB = 6

So it's really no mystery why the Giaunts are so proud and jealous of "their" territory to the south.

Looking at the East Bay Region specifically, I would resolve the geography as follows:

Oakland = Oakland, Emeryville, Alameda, Berkeley, Hercules

San Ramon/Tri-Valleys = everything east of the Caldecott Tunnel, and Dublin and Sunol grades

Fremont = Fremont, Hayward, Union City

Defined so, the numbers are as follows:

Oak = 12

SRV/TriV = 20

Fremont = 18

By this logic, the new ballyard might better be in Walnut Creek or Pleasanton than Oakland. And if we just look at companies HQ'd within the city limits of Oakland and Fremont, per se, Oakland loses 3 to 15.

Now, I've heard Fremont disparaged around here as a parking lot with a City Council, but it's pretty clearly more than that. And one could take away from the above data that the tech industries centered in the Silicon Valley, of which Fremont is best considered a part, are the economic engine of the Bay Area. It also seems clear that Oakland in particular, and to a lesser extent SF, just aren't the commercial centers they were when the teams moved here 40 and 50 years ago. At those times, the peninsula was fruit orchards, and there really were walnut groves in Walnut Creek. Or so I'm told.

Viewed using this metric, the move south makes a lot of sense. Yes, companies aren't people, but to an increasing degree they are ticket-buyers, and they do represent sponsorship sources. Oakland, for all its natural beauty, infrastructure advantages and head start, just hasn't kept pace.

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Nice info

This doesn’t surprise me really. I guess the only thing one could quibble with is Hayward being part of the Silicon Valley.

by jeffro on Apr 28, 2008 3:37 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, you're right about Hayward -- but there was only one company listed there, and it seemed techish (med devices, I think).

The meaning of life is not so much 'found,' as it is 'made.' --Opus

by The Dogfather on Apr 29, 2008 9:59 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's kind of specious reasoning ...

but it’s your article (And, as you note, it really doesn’t matter), so go for it … I think it makes more sense to do it based on transportation focused geography—while they may have a lot in common, in terms of the jobs they offer, do Palo Alto and Fremont really comprise a common market? (At the scale that you’re discussing)

Good work, though … the numbers certainly back up what we kind of all knew, anyway.

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Apr 29, 2008 10:40 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Transportation

How do we break down the transportation focused geography? Where does Palo Alto fit in that equation? Part of San Jose?

I am asking seriously. If there are shuttle from Cal Train to Cisco FIeld? From Milpitas/880 VTA up McCarthy/Fremont Blvd to Cisco Field how does that factor in? Shuttles from BART to Cisco Field?

by jeffro on Apr 29, 2008 11:13 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's a good question ...

Perhaps vertig0 would have an answer …

I’m just going by what I figure to be common sense … would a fan in Redwood City really be more likely to go to a game at an equally nice stadium in an equally nice neighborhood in Fremont than in Oakland? That’s hard for me to believe, but this article assumes that fan would. whether we’re applying the Silicon Valley label to Fremont or not, I’d still figure most fans on the peninsula will consider the Giants their more local team.

Perhaps a good way to do it, based on the simplest assumptions, if not the simplest methodology, would be to go by concentric circles, see how many fans and how much money each site has within 5, 15, and 30 miles …

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Apr 29, 2008 11:20 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Silicon Valley is amorphous

Ask 10 people what defines Silicon Valley and you’re likely to get 10 different answers. Several cities in Santa Clara County contend they are the heart/capital/hub of SV. Some suggest that because of the number of tech firms in Fremont/Newark/Union City, they are part of it. Some believe that Redwood Shores is part of SV because of Oracle.

You’re on the right track with the concentric circles. The A’s are basing their ballpark model on demographics of fans within 20 miles of the site. Curiously, Oakland is at the outer edge of this.

by vertig0 on Apr 29, 2008 11:37 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Silicon Valley may be amorphous

but San Jose is and always has been its center.

Green Hulk Fists

by oaklandSMASH on Apr 29, 2008 1:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Silicon Valley

I don’t know where the epicenter is, but it is a globally recognized “brand” and a place that many people are hoping to be associated with.

For reasons real or imagined, it is a stark contrast to Oakland in that regard.

by jeffro on Apr 29, 2008 3:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think we can agree, though ...

not many of those answers will include Hayward … ; )

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Apr 29, 2008 4:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nothing against Hayward, but it's getting far too much attention in this thread.

The meaning of life is not so much 'found,' as it is 'made.' --Opus

by The Dogfather on Apr 29, 2008 5:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

has the thread gone wayward?

And what did we do once we discovered a rift in the fourth dimension? We launched a monkey into it. @('.')@

by monkeyball on Apr 29, 2008 5:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Haywire.

The meaning of life is not so much 'found,' as it is 'made.' --Opus

by The Dogfather on Apr 29, 2008 5:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

He probably

Has answered that on his blog before and I missed it.

For me, working in Sunnyvale/living in Pleasanton it’s a no brainer that I would go to more week night games in Fremont than in Oakland. I think the same is true of people in Redwood City… if they work in Santa Clara County, Fremont is much easier to get to than Oakland on week nights.

If they work in San Francisco, Oakland may be a better option, but why wouldn’t they just go to Giants games?

I think the move is indicative of a shift from and East/West employer dynamic in the Bay to a South/North dynamic. Something that has been around a while now.

by jeffro on Apr 29, 2008 11:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree ...

I think there are two key reasons for selecting Fremont:
1. The obvious, available land
2. It is, quite literally, at the crossroads … similar to Oakland, actually, but it’s at the cross of better roads. The Bay Bridge is basically irrelevant for the A’s and Richmond area fans are less valuable, even than Oakland area fans. With the 680, tri-valley fans are as close or closer than to Oakland—so are us fans up the 80 corridor (Fairfield, Vacaville, Davis, Sacramento), with the Dumbarton, it’s considerably closer to southern peninsula fans, who will be relatively up for grabs and with the 880, fans through San Jose and Oakland to the north are a relatively short drive away. With the move, geography-wise, the A’s lose very little, that they could actually compete for and gain a ton. As and Oakland-centric fan, I don’t like it, but it definitely makes a ton of dollars and sense.

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Apr 29, 2008 4:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

These are important numbers but there are other important numbers too

that make the move south a good move for the A’s revenue situation…

San Jose is the largest of the three bay area cities, santa clara county is the largest bay area county. Santa Clara County has the highest household (not per capita) income of any bay area county (actually any county in California). Although Marin, SF, and San Mateo beat it out for per capita income… but they are Giants territory anyways so who cares. Plus moving south will draw more fans from San Mateo county. Santa Clara is way higher per capita income than alameda and contra costa.

Cust is the new Jaha.

by johnjahafanclub on Apr 29, 2008 11:22 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

more numbers published today

Santa Clara is second highest median joint income in the state behind marin:

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/04/29/BU6J10D6J9.DTL

County Median joint income
Marin$116,626
Santa Clara95,457
San Mateo95,394
Contra Costa87,478
Alameda83,996
Placer78,652
El Dorado78,489
Orange75,537
Ventura75,171
Solano73,276
Sonoma71,667
San Francisco71,529

Cust is the new Jaha.

by johnjahafanclub on Apr 29, 2008 11:28 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

City and County populations are pretty irrelevent ...

Oakland is closer to more people than is San Jose …

The dollars are much more important to them …

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Apr 29, 2008 4:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes! Pleasanton!

I only say that because it’s a 5 minute drive.

by mikev on Apr 28, 2008 3:46 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Yes Pleasanton!

because I live there! And there is a huge open space right by downtown, which is way far from bart, but whatever.

by jeffro on Apr 28, 2008 5:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

It could have gone right where the new Lowe's was built :(

by mikev on Apr 29, 2008 8:16 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Isn't that

Dublin?

by jeffro on Apr 29, 2008 10:17 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, I guess so.

Damn

by mikev on Apr 29, 2008 11:44 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

That would have been perfect

My office window overlooks Lowe’s

by jpl on Apr 29, 2008 12:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good Info

And this is also yet another reason why the A’s will be changing their name to the Silicon Valley A’s at Fremont or the San Jose A’s at Fremont. 6 < 30!!!!

Sometimes life will strike you out on a curve ball and the only choice you have is to flip off the umpire and walk to first base anyway.

by Threepwood XX on Apr 28, 2008 3:54 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

this was surprising:

And if we just look at companies HQ’d within the city limits of Oakland and Fremont, per se, Oakland loses 3 to 15.

and it’s parking lot with a mayor...

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Apr 28, 2008 4:01 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Anyone looked at this?

Looks very cool to me

by jeffro on Apr 28, 2008 5:42 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

they really should scrub the photos of Haren and Melhuse ...

... from the StomperTron screen mockups in the intro slideshow.

And what did we do once we discovered a rift in the fourth dimension? We launched a monkey into it. @('.')@

by monkeyball on Apr 28, 2008 5:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

FIrst thing I noticed as well

"Evidently, a large number of people said, 'We really need more vermin at the ballpark, Artie.'" - Nick (AN), 10/7/07

by doctorK on Apr 28, 2008 8:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Havent seen that

Looks really cool, yet depressing at the same time.

I think its funny they show players, like any current A’s will even be there in 2012 or whatever. I see Dan Haren, Melhuse, and Kotsay, these guys arent even on the team now!

"Who's this Seagon guy? Is he in A-ball or something?" - Billy Beane

by pickinmachine on Apr 28, 2008 5:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

They should probably doctor pictures of current Rivercats just to be sure

Even then, those guys might be out before the village breaks ground.

Green Hulk Fists

by oaklandSMASH on Apr 29, 2008 1:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

hmmm ...

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And what did we do once we discovered a rift in the fourth dimension? We launched a monkey into it. @('.')@

by monkeyball on Apr 28, 2008 6:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Let's not forget...

Gloria Ritchie also happens to be the daughter of the #1 political opponent of the project, former Fremont mayor Gus Morrison. Probably makes the occasional family dinner somewhat uncomfortable.

by vertig0 on Apr 28, 2008 10:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Political family running both sides of the question ?

Sounds like business as usual.

by green star oakland on Apr 29, 2008 12:02 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I didn't forget ...

... because I didn’t know it in the first place :)

And what did we do once we discovered a rift in the fourth dimension? We launched a monkey into it. @('.')@

by monkeyball on Apr 29, 2008 8:04 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I thought you read

Newballpark.blogspot.com?

by jeffro on Apr 29, 2008 8:13 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Geographically inclined

I really like the info put out….with that said I still think the whole deal sucks and dont want the boys to end up with a ridiculous Anahiem blah blah blah title. Thanks for the info I really did like it.

From the cheap seats talkin' smack. Oakland underdog

by Stacks on Apr 28, 2008 6:15 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Leave Hayward out of the SV designation and this is pretty good...

...and I really wish there could be more of a political thrust behind moving the team to the SV…it just makes a lot of economic sense and the fans down there are great. If the Sharks could thrive there, the A’s would be treated like KINGS…

by standuptriple on Apr 28, 2008 9:41 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I still don't think the Fremont move will happen.

As I’m sure you have seen the A’s announced recently a one year delay on the opening of the Fremont park, to 2012. Lew Wolff was on the telecast this evening, and while ebullient about the ways the A’s are playing, (and making the best move toward a foul ball of the three in the booth), he continues to be discouraged about the process in Fremont and California—the time, paperwork, and delays of working through all of the issues, currently of concern the environmental issues. From the press release,

The Oakland Athletics’ expected move to Fremont will probably be delayed at least until 2012, a year later than the team hoped.
Speaking at a community meeting this week, A’s co-owner Keith Wolff said the team could only make the move by 2011 if the city approves the environmental impact report by the end of this year.
But Wolff and city officials say that’s highly unlikely given the size and complexity of the proposed project.
The A’s proposal includes a 32,000-seat ballpark, more than 3,000 homes, an elementary school and an upscale shopping center.
The environmental report requires the team to respond to comments from public agencies and citizens and is expected to take 14 to 18 months to complete.

Along with his comments regarding the delay, he mentioned the slowness of the economy, and also some disappointment with fan attendance. I’m still expecting a very slow economy, particularly in housing, that will continue for years, and make the addition of 3000 homes in Fremont a poor investment for Lew and his investment group. That would likely keep the A’s in Oakland, imo, for an extended period. But an impending move is likely to prevent significant increases to the fan base. Too bad because this team has sure been fun to watch so far this year.

by alamedaman on Apr 28, 2008 9:52 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I think 2011 was always viewed

as a rather optimistic date for the move. All in all, given the way the wheels grind slowly, even 2012 is an optimistic date. Wolfe seemed more concerned at the glacial pace from a personal point of view rather than a business point of view. Face it, the man is in his seventies. I got the feeling he was more concerned with living long enough to see the park personally. The sad fact is that time has expired for the city of Oakland. The status quo is unacceptable to ownership and the league. I for one want the team to remain in the bay area and Fremont is the last best possibility for that to happen.

"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer

by alox on Apr 28, 2008 10:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

They're slowing the pace

It’s not a situation where 3000 homes will suddenly be for sale in 2011-12. They’re phasing them in over a decade-long span. Do you think the economy will be in the tank for that long? If so, why?

by vertig0 on Apr 28, 2008 10:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

sorry, missed this comment, and you'll probably never see this one. but,

my outlook for the economy over the next 10 years is pretty bleak. It’s because of demographic trends. the baby boom generation is aging, and spending patterns change dramatically in one’s sixties and beyond. consumer spending, imho, will drop. and less demand means job cutbacks, lower profits for business, falling stock markets, etc. And as though that is not enough, the boomers will be “net sellers” of homes, while they have been “net buyers” of homes for the last 30 years. Housing prices have become way out of line with historical price to income levels for homes, and I think that will change, and go back to the old norms. Which means a much larger fall in home prices yet to come—probably 30% more. so lew’s project will look particularly bad. good news is that younger people will be more able to buy houses in 10 years.

by alamedaman on May 3, 2008 12:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fremont and Pleasanton...

are basically twin cities… 5 minutes away from each other. The residence of one visit the bars of the other regularly. And, San Ramon ain’t that far up the road. So, throw all of those into the Fremont mix, along with everything south of Fremont and you’ll know why the A’s are moving.

Foolsh, the most insane regular poster on AN since oaktoon left - salb

by FoolshGame22 on Apr 29, 2008 2:01 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

You must have a verry fast car...

The meaning of life is not so much 'found,' as it is 'made.' --Opus

by The Dogfather on Apr 29, 2008 9:57 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's more like 12 minutes

From Pleasanton to Fremont… depending on where you are going. It took me 12 minutes from the Sunol Blvd exit to the 24 hour Pharmacy on Paseo Padre at 9 pm one night.

by jeffro on Apr 29, 2008 10:18 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

After the bars? ;-)

The meaning of life is not so much 'found,' as it is 'made.' --Opus

by The Dogfather on Apr 29, 2008 10:45 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Penicilin

cures everything apparently :)

by jeffro on Apr 29, 2008 11:10 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

When I lived in Fremont, I never kicked it in Pleasanton

Traversing the hills seemed like a bother and there was nothing fun in the San Ramon/Dublin/Pleasanton area that ever made me want to come back.

Green Hulk Fists

by oaklandSMASH on Apr 29, 2008 1:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Likewise

Living in Pleasanton, I only drive through Fremont. I don’t spend a lot of time there for any reason other than the occasional traffic jam or to go visit friends. My restaurant time is spent in Pleasanton or Dublin.

That said, it would be less difficult to get to games in Fremont than Oakland.

by jeffro on Apr 29, 2008 3:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

residents, even

Foolsh, the most insane regular poster on AN since oaktoon left - salb

by FoolshGame22 on Apr 29, 2008 2:01 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

And what did we do once we discovered a rift in the fourth dimension? We launched a monkey into it. @('.')@

by monkeyball on Apr 29, 2008 8:10 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fremont is a done deal

trust.

Foolsh, the most insane regular poster on AN since oaktoon left - salb

by FoolshGame22 on Apr 29, 2008 2:03 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

If the A's announced a move like the Niners did, then I would be apprehensive.

But you don’t partner up with a powerful company like Cisco and get Selig to take pictures next to their execs, and not follow through with a deal. That would be a PR disaster of epic proportions.

If hockey can thrive in San Jose, you better believe the brass of major sports leagues can smell the money coming out of the Silicon Valley.

Green Hulk Fists

by oaklandSMASH on Apr 29, 2008 1:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

As always

The best place to read about the A’s staying in the Bay Area is right here

by jeffro on Apr 29, 2008 8:12 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I agree, that site is definitely informative and intelligent

All this shifting geography-ideas….what about 580 up near the 680 split, but still in Oakland proper?
Golf Links Rd or thereabouts? I know this is like showing up for the Saturday night party at 10AM on Sunday (ie. Fremont is a done deal) but I always liked the geography and “feel” for the hills. BART should be along 580 as well as the 880 route, but that is another story…

"I never predict anything, and I never will." Paul Gascoigne, English footballer

by One won lost won on Apr 29, 2008 4:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

You mean the 880 split?

because the 680 and 880 meet something like 20 miles outside of Oakland …

I can’t imagine much of a site there—while a hill stadium might feel nice, it’s exceedingly difficult engineering. Also, that area is basically 100% residential, which will make acquiring the land difficult and/or a PR nightmare.

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Apr 29, 2008 4:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's essentially Castro Valley, I think.

Not much vacant, level land, as devo notes. There is that rodeo stadium a little farther out, but it’s not near big enough. We would have to put Houston’s ridiculous centerfield hillock to shame, and they, being Texans, would have to build a bigger one. Where would it end?

The meaning of life is not so much 'found,' as it is 'made.' --Opus

by The Dogfather on Apr 29, 2008 5:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

San Leandro/San Lorenzo?

You mean 238? Near Bay Fair mall?

I think Lake Chabot Golf Course would be sweet for the views, but not really likely.

by jeffro on Apr 29, 2008 10:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

At Marine Layer/Vertig0's blog?

interesting concept …

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Apr 29, 2008 4:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I still think

They should move to Austin TX

Beane's World!! Excellent!!! Rock On, Beane! Rock On, Geren!

by Satchmo22 on Apr 29, 2008 8:41 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Move to Texas

San Antonio is the largest city in USA without a MLB team. Austin would be great, too. I’m pretty sure that the Dallas-Fort Worth area has been looking for a professional baseball team for years. Texas loves baseball and business. And no income tax. Yee-Haw.

by movetotexas on Apr 30, 2008 5:28 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

What about the challenges Flordia faced?

When looking into San Antonio? Media Market size and splitting that with the Astros being one fo them.

The biggest media markets without baseball, and census metro areas are Portland and Sacramento (last time I checked). The population of media market/CMA are way more important than the population of a given city.

by jeffro on Apr 30, 2008 8:22 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think Orlando

Also was up there in terms of the size of a baseballless (is that a word) market.

by jeffro on Apr 30, 2008 8:23 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Relevant info

This table shall be from this day forth known as “The Table Upon Which We Shall All Agree Is Most Relevant To The Market Size Discussion.”
– King Friday

by jeffro on Apr 30, 2008 8:30 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

So Orlando, Sacramento or Charlotte ...

each roughly a third the size of the Bay Area … and each with significantly lower average incomes …

I think Charlotte is the only one that potentially would work—under the idea that they could market themselves as a pan-south team …

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Apr 30, 2008 10:32 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Dude

I think the A’s should stay in the Bay Area. I wrote a long old post about it back on the good ‘ol AN. There are no Markets that come close to the opportunity of the Bay Area. By 2035 the Bay Area will be the third largest Metro in the nation, bigger than Chicago, smaller than LA according to Census projections.

by jeffro on Apr 30, 2008 4:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs