ode to small sample size

by wilyc on Apr 21, 2008 7:39 PM PDT

Twenty games into the baseball season, and we've moved from delicious possibility:

LA 0 W, 0 L; Oakland 0 W 0 L

to the quirky beauty of april 21st and just a few games. The baseball flies around the diamond; a few young pitchers have great stuff on spring nights against hitters who've never seen them; Crosby, Suzuki and Buck hit a statistically improbable load of doubles. And now we have:

LA 12 W 8 L; Oakland 12 W 8 L.

20 coin flips, and 142 to go. I think (unless your a statistician) that one of the most appealing things about baseball is it's randomness (unlike real life where we try to avoid randomness, like stray buses while crossing the street).

Anything can happen, and, in that possibility is the joy of being a baseball fan.

Why watch the game tomorrow? Joe Blanton could throw a no-hitter; Daric Barton could hit for the cycle; Bobby Crosby could turn a triple play. They probably won't, of course, but in a each pitch, each at-bat, each half-inning is a delicious, stochastic event that can be intriguing, or else pleasantly boring. More importantly, in these million coin flips come together, story arcs will emerge: Eveland and Smith will learn new ways of pitching and/or reveal their Achilles heal of predictability and get thrashed. Houston Street will lose the movement on his fastball, find it again, then lose it again. Hannahan and Sweeney will make it as a major leaguers or they won't (a major turning point in their lives; but for us mildly interesting). Crosby will stay in his mini-groove or slide back into the morass of injury and self-doubt.

The A's will make the playoffs or they won't (pecota's best "playoff odds" = 34.37%, a flawed number that doesn't really capture the true randomness of a young baseball team in April). Either way is okay with me: it's spring again, and it's baseball.

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Don't Forget

Chavy could come back and regain his early 00’s form now that he’s healthy, and carry this team to a semi-old school second half A’s run. I suppose it’s a long shot, but I’m awfully optimistic about it.

What about Barry?
"Barry who?" Forst said, and I felt like I was in the middle of a knock-knock joke.

by KMoAsFan on Apr 21, 2008 8:05 PM PDT reply actions

he had the same surgery as Crede, after all...

and, look how Crede is doing.

Foolsh, the most insane regular poster on AN since oaktoon left - salb

by FoolshGame22 on Apr 21, 2008 9:37 PM PDT up reply actions

by the same doctor

"It's like déjà vu all over again." -yogi berra

by Cheezombie on Apr 22, 2008 10:54 AM PDT up reply actions

WE'RE ALL GONNA LIVE!!!

"Huston, you're hot!'' said first baseman Dan Johnson, dressed as a bottle of mustard.

by Poppy on Apr 21, 2008 8:21 PM PDT reply actions

Except one of us.

Find out who…in the next “Who Is Jesus Guzman” fANpOsT!!

"God doesn't pay attention to your cute little hypotheticals." -- Jeff from LL

by oblique on Apr 21, 2008 9:05 PM PDT up reply actions

I was just about to ask, who is Carlos Gonzalez.

by asyouwish33 on Apr 21, 2008 9:36 PM PDT up reply actions

Remember what they say

Everyone wins 60, and loses 60. It’s what you do with those other 42 games that makes or breaks you. I just never know which 42 games they mean.

I'm here to talk about the past.

by 67MARQUEZ on Apr 21, 2008 8:21 PM PDT reply actions

Something for both sides of your brain.

Hard-bitten stats for the left-side, that you use to debate strategery and prepare your team for battle, and

The joysof risk and chance for the right, that drama that keeps you coming back. Maybe that’s also why people gamble, and gambol - can we beat the odds, just this once - or twice? But that last part is for another thread.

The meaning of life is not so much 'found,' as it is 'made.' --Opus

by The Dogfather on Apr 21, 2008 8:50 PM PDT reply actions