Contending? Competing? Give me a break!
by kitoko on Apr 18, 2008 1:41 PM PDT
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PrintWhile it has been fun for the fans and good for the youngsters' confidence to win 2 series on the road against good teams, everyone from the front office on down to the 7-year old kid in the stands (who, in 1973, was me, watching Catfish win the Cy Young) needs to step back and be realistic. This team IS NOT a contending team, it WAS NOT put together to be a contending team, and even in what could play out to be one of the weakest divisions in the history of MLB, the likelihood of our team contending is very slim. There are MANY VERY OBVIOUS REASONS why this is hard to ignore, and they are based around the three basic skills which in large part determine the outcome of individual games and thus entire seasons: pitching, hitting, and defense.
Our rotation has precisely one proven commodity--Joe Blanton. He is our ace, and he would be #3 in any TRUE contender's rotation. Behind him we have, well....the AAA callup of the week? Come on--we were all excited when Harden and Duke started off strong, because even a team that averages 2 runs a game can be dragged aloong by a stacked rotation. However, when they both went down (and honestly, was anyone surprised when they did?), that left the #2 spot to Gaudin. Gulp. Has he fully recovered yet? it sure doesn't look like it. Any production we get from Eveland and Smith is FANTASTIC and bodes well for the future, but their contributions are very unlikely to make us contenders now. Considering that Blanton will probably not be with us very much longer, the rotation, which has historically been an Oakland strong suit, looks shaky...and the bullpen, which has looked fairly OK so far, can only provide so many save opps to Street, thanks to our dismal offense, but of those provided, he will blow 25-30% (until Billy can find some sucker who believes he's better than that).
Our offense is absolutely horrendous. We have exactly one player (Ellis) who is above average offensively at his position, and he's just barely so. He's also a prime candidate to be playing somewhere else soon. When the sticks come up with one run on 5 hits for an evening's work, why are we all surprised and indignant? When you send up 9 guys who have practically no power and limited ability to even put wood on the ball, we are just really hoping the opposing pitcher is wild/ineffective that particular game. When you've got two guys in your lineup that couldn't even hang on with the KC Royals, that's not a good sign. Cust is showing why he is a career minor leaguer (ditto Hannahan/Murphy), and even promising players such as Buck and Barton have taken a step back. Suzuki and R. Sweeney have been bright spots, but we need a bigger "sample size" before we know whether they'll eventually be league-average (or, God forbid, above average) offensively. Only the Giants have a weaker offense than we do.
When the pitching is barely average and the offense is nonexistent, a team really needs great defense to stay in games and close out games it has a chance to win. The A's defense has been atrocious, and looking at the players involved, again only (possibly soon to be shipped) Ellis stands out as being really strong defensively. We are mediocre at best at all other positions, and downright weak at several. Barton and Crosby come immediately to mind as having struggled defensively so far.
Again, this early in the season, the sample sizes are too small to come to any definitive conclusion about where things are headed. However, those who are projecting us to be contenders based on 2 series may want to step back and have a look at the capabilities of the (non-perpetually injured) players on the roster before they reserve playoff tickets. BB has designed this as a rebuilding phase, and although early returns on the offseason trades are excellent and set us up for a bright future, the current edition of our Oakland A's falls way short of having enough ammo to contend in the stacked AL. To contend, players wearing the Green and Gold need to dramatically improve in 3 areas crucial for success in baseball--pitching, hitting, and fielding. This team could be fun to watch, but like all previous rebuilding phases (I've seen several since '73), there will be stretches of ugly play and bad results. We all just need to be patient and keep the faith....
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When did it become so fashionable
to diss Huston Street at every opportunity?
I honestly can’t figure out why he would want to sign a long-term deal here, other than the hope that he’ll get traded and still make his guaranteed money. It’s pretty obvious that the fans have absolutely no idea how good he is. Why would someone willingly put up with that?
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
hmm...
I sure was spoiled watching Eck and the Goose when I was young…
When a closer comes into a game, I’m expecting a one-two-three inning… maybe a walk, maybe a single, but no barrage.
Just like some poker players only seem to remember their defeats, some fans tend only to remember the blown saves.
Huston Street is a great value for the money, but he’s no sure thing.
"Good pitching will always stop good hitting and vice-versa."- Casey Stengel
by Gaijin_Suketto on Apr 19, 2008 4:11 PM PDT up reply actions
I'll Try
Contending?
I could have been a contender, Marlon Brando
competing?
My name is Frank Couzo. To you, I am either Coach, or Mr Couzo. Starting tommorow, you are mine for the next three months. That means no women, no alcohol, no drugs. You will eat, sleep and shit competition.
James Earl Jones( Best of the Best)
Gimme a Break?
The late Nell Carter
What the A's need to do is to rethink their organizational hitting philosophy
From the bottom up. The prospects coming up latley have not been doing well, and the players at the MLB level are the same.
The organization says it tries to empehsize hitting the good pitches, and taking the bad. But in practice, it ends up being take everything, including the ball down the middle, then strike out once you’re behind in the count.
The league knows this too. And its probably a big part of why we a) strike out so much and b) why pitchers like Carlos Silva own us.
I think the A’s took the Jason Giambi theory to heart way too much, especially with steroids being repsonsible for his power leap. The A’s believe that every prospect will develop power later, but it does not seem to be as much the case thus far.
I for one welcome a Carlos Gonzalez type hitter. We need more power in the lineup, and we need a higher batting average. A Walk and a Hit are not equal, a hit is more valuable than a walk. I’d rather have a player with a .300/.340 line than .250/.350 line to be honest, because the .250 line is only worth while if the batter has power, and the A’s players outside of Cust, who as of yet can’t make contact, can not do that.
So the Indians and Red Sox
are not emphasizing taking walks?
That’s pretty confusing, seeing as how they consistently lead the league in walks (along with the Yankees, although they just buy the walks rather than develop them).
Travis Buck has two walks this season. He’s making outs all over the place, and it’s not just because of striking out. He’s hacking away at everything and getting himself in terrible hitting counts.
Of course you’d rather have a .300/.340 player than a .250/.350 player, all else being equal. 50 points of batting average is also 50 points of slugging average. Even the most rabid OBP disciples don’t think it’s 5 times as important as slugging.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
My point was...
that the A’s have so much emphesis on patience that its not leading to walks, but just strikeouts and weakly hit balls. At the same time, the org has not emphesised power. So now we have a bunch of guys who strike out a lot, have low batting averages, walk a bit (but not enough to get their OBP high), and can’t slug.
...and, you didn't answer any of my points
The reason why the current roster is doing the above is rather simple: they suck. OK? Emil Brown sucks. Ryan Sweeney, at least in his current youthful incarnation, sucks. Jack Hannahan is a standup guy, but as a starter, he sucks. Bobby Crosby, still, sucks. Mike Sweeney, post injury, sucks. Chris Denorfia, whether I like him or not as a prospect, has sucked.
This is not some organizational philosophy thing. Their minds have not been polluted with evil Beane-juice. Most of these guys have not been with the organization for very long. They’ve been doing exactly the same thing this year as they did in prior years, except that for whatever reason their batting averages have collectively gone over Niagara Falls in a barrel.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
if you don't strain off the evil bean juice ...
... you tend to get nacho runs.
And what did we do once we discovered a rift in the fourth dimension? We launched a monkey into it. @('.')@
What the hell?
Who pissed in your cornflakes?
I’m not much of one for flagging posts, but this is well over even my extremely casual line. Taking random shots at me out of nowhere is a really, really good way to get me to dislike you.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
I pissed in his cornflakes
Sorry, Shippee33.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
He text messages all my friends
spreading nasty rumors about me (that only happen to be true).
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Good point
That would be a tragic situation if I was disliked by PT, I don’t know how I could ever post on AN again.
"I Will Not Relent, I Am Driven"... Clutch
Bring Back The Bash!!!
That's pretty mean...
It’s easy for people with fragile egos to see PT’s glib responses as personal jabs and get defensive, but at least try to respond at his level. If he called you a poopoo head or something, then you could say he sucks.
Maybe next time, try “Yea, he undervalues the baseball intellect of those who have inefficient communication skills.”
"Good pitching will always stop good hitting and vice-versa."- Casey Stengel
by Gaijin_Suketto on Apr 19, 2008 4:21 PM PDT up reply actions
that's spot on
President of the Joey Devine fan club as of 1/15/08. Accepting applications for other positions. "He has no equivalent." -Paul DePodesta on Jeremy Brown
He was listing who he thought sucked
So I thought I would make a list of who I think suck. Just trying to contribute to the discussion.
"I Will Not Relent, I Am Driven"... Clutch
Bring Back The Bash!!!
Again I ask the question
What the fuck is your problem?
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
OK, fine
I won’t waste any additional time on your bullshit. I don’t understand why you feel it necessary to work your way onto my shit list, but you’re there. Have fun.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Dude
I don’t think anyone honestly gives a shit if they are on your “Shit list”. Who the fuck do you think you are anyway, you’ve been on AN for what 2 months? Talk to someone who cares
"I Will Not Relent, I Am Driven"... Clutch
Bring Back The Bash!!!
Ellis so far is not just barely above average
at his position. Since you appear to be judging players on only what has happened this season.
2b are hitting badly todate. League average EQA for 2b in 2008 is a pathetic 248. Ellis’ EQA is 264. That is a huge difference.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
The defense is fine
The OF defense sucks, but not catastrophically, and the IF defense is one of the best in the league, possibly even the best.
The A's colors are green and gold.
IF Defense
is not among the best.
Ellis is great.
Crosby is good.
Hanahan is average at best.
Barton is bad.
Even if I grant you that,
it is among the best. Great 2B, good SS, avg 3B, bad 1B = among the best.
Hannahan is probably a bit better than average, and Barton is probably not average, but better than bad.
The A's colors are green and gold.
SS and 2B make twice as many plays as 1B and 3B
It doesn’t make sense to weight each position equally.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Blanton could be a 2 on a true contender
I think he’d easily be the #2 guy on many teams that would be considered major contenders: Red Sox, Yankees, Tigers, Angels…
Other than that I agree with your depressing assessment of our team.
Maybe Chavez, Harden and Duke will come back healthy, Cust will start to hit , Crosby will continue to improve and the Gonzales boys will get called up and exceed our wildest expectations.
But if not, it’ll be enough to watch the young guys develop over the course of the year
Who, Blanton?
Blanton’s got good stuff. It’s not really “strikeout” stuff. But he has 3 plus offspeed pitches and great command.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
His career ERA+ is 105, his career WHIP is 1.32
Solid, but not spectacular. A #3 on a good team. Cory Lidle was better on the A’s.
Well maybe he would be a 3 on some very good teams
But he’d be a 2 on most teams and a 1 on some bad ones, so that makes him a 2 in my book
Plenty of Time
For pitchers to get healthy; for hitters to start hitting; for young players to mature. What does Billy Beane always say—the first two months are for determining what kind of team you actually have. At the end of May we’ll know if we have a 85 win team with an outside chance of contention; a .500 team suffering growing pains; or something worse.
Agree, and most of it will depend on Harden and Duke
because a rotation of Blanton, Harden, Duke, and two of Gaudin,/Eveland/Smith can keep the team afloat for a while, while the current rotation simply can’t. Then the Gonzo brothers, who aren’t brothers, turn a “hanging in there” team into a contender. Or they turn a bad team into a more fun team to watch while the Angels romp to the division.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Setting aside
the apparently contentious question of whether or not the A’s can contend this year (for the record I don’t expect it, but I think anything’s possible in a weak division), I think the most important issue for the management is not changing horses in the middle of the rebuilding stream.
Like Billy said after last year, when you rebuild you can’t do it halfway. Your goal is to make your team better next year (and the year after) than it is this year. You can’t change that philosophy just because you get lucky in the first couple months. Even if the A’s are in first in June, if we get a good package for Blanton (or Street, Ellis, etc), we’ve gotta take it. And no trading Trevor Cahill (or whoever) for 1-2 year rental of a right handed power bat.
Mucking around with your long term strategy based on a couple months of “better than expected” is a surefire way to turn your team into the Baltimore Orioles (ie sucking for years on end)
The glare was not practiced. I would get into the game situations, and when that happens, there comes a level of concentration that most can only imagine but can never achieve. You become what you are doing, and that is what you see on my face. -Dave Stewart
by Hegenberger Road on Apr 18, 2008 10:01 PM PDT reply actions
Agree 100%
Players who are not in the team’s long term plans need to be traded if someone offers a reasonable package. There are, somewhat surprisingly given how young the team seems to be, eight players on the active roster who will hit free agency between now and the start of the 2010 season. Only one of them, Ellis, seems like someone to give a contract extension to. That’s a lot of salesmanship.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Baseball is a funny game...
unexpected stuff happens all time. Practically every year some team comes out of nowhere and contends. Who predicted the Rockies would make it to the World Series last year? What I’ve found is that the people who think they’ve got it all figured out are usually full of shit. You can choose to be pessimistic if you like, but basically, as fans, hope is all we’ve got, and I prefer to hang on to mine.
"He's a misfit. He gets along with everyone." - Reggie Jackson, describing Joe Rudi
Good call, McFood!
Why NOT hope? Is it costing the team wins for me to hope that maybe we’ll do better than we should?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
So, what you're saying is ...
... you’ve got it all figured out about people who think they’ve got it all figured out?
And what did we do once we discovered a rift in the fourth dimension? We launched a monkey into it. @('.')@
Ok, let me get this straight ...
first you say, “This team IS NOT a contending team, it WAS NOT put together to be a contending team …”
Then later you write, “This early in the season, the sample sizes are too small to come to any definitive conclusions about where things are headed …”
Ummmmm …. I’m confused.
VacaAsFan
zing
President of the Joey Devine fan club as of 1/15/08. Accepting applications for other positions. "He has no equivalent." -Paul DePodesta on Jeremy Brown
I love how Barton has taken a step back...
But Suzuki and Sweeney’s numbers are the result of a small sample size. The fact of the matter is the AL West has the potential of being a very weak division, and even if the A’s weren’t “built” to contend, stranger things have happened in baseball than well-run, well-managed teams competing “by accident”.
There is no harm in jumping on the horse and trying to run with a fast start—They can’t really cost any important young players at-bats, and noone is going to get traded for any less than they are worth. I don’t really get what the post is trying to accomplish.
Barton is getting on-base like crazy, the ball will start leaving the yard soon (or at least hitting the fence).
2007 rockies
President of the Joey Devine fan club as of 1/15/08. Accepting applications for other positions. "He has no equivalent." -Paul DePodesta on Jeremy Brown
Don't look now, but after today's game
Barton’s OPS suddenly stands at .795 (.271/.395/.400).
Hey, you looked.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
But, but, but....
The A’s had an awesome Spring Training record!
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
and we're a game out of first!
President of the Joey Devine fan club as of 1/15/08. Accepting applications for other positions. "He has no equivalent." -Paul DePodesta on Jeremy Brown
i seriously doubt the only team with a worse offense is
the Giants. Home runs do not equal offense, as we saw from the white sox last season(2nd in home runs, last in runs scored). Why didn’t they score? because they had low OBP. This team gets on base. The offense will be fine.
"It's like déjà vu all over again." -yogi berra
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