A's Should Trade Ellis
by johnjahafanclub on Apr 18, 2008 12:08 PM PDT
47 comments
I think the A's should trade Ellis to the Rockies for Ian Stewart. Ellis is in his prime and may be in decline by the time we are ready to compete in 2009/2010. Ian Stewart can flat out mash... but he's blocked in Colorado by another young 3b - Garret Atkins. Perfect opportunity for us to swoop in and trade for him. The Rockies have been using Jayson Nix at 2b and he is terrible. They really need a 2b. They also need starting pitching so maybe Beane should offer one of our 12 or so young starters or Joe Blanton for Ian Stewart.
From yahoo:
"Stewart, the Rockies' No. 2 prospect according to Baseball America, is on a roll for Triple-A Colorado Springs, hitting .318 with three home runs, 12 RBIs, 10 runs and two steals through 11 games. His path to Denver is complicated by the fact that he plays the same position as Garrett Atkins. He auditioned at second base this spring, but Colorado opted for the better defensive option in Jayson Nix. If Nix continues his sub-Mendoza Line ways, perhaps the Rockies will decide that Stewart's bat could win them more games than his glove would lose. If not, he, or Atkins, will need to be dealt to open up playing time."
We need a 3b to replace Chavez. Hanahan and Murphy are not long term solutions at 3b. I say the time is ripe for Beane to jump into the trade market! Stewart is blocked similar to Carlos Gonzalez at Arizona. Great opportunity here.
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Stewart is probably worth more than Ellis
and has there actually been any indication that the Rockies WANT Ellis? We keep bringing it up, but are they?
by Zonis on Apr 18, 2008 12:12 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
NOOOO FREAKING WAYYY!!!!
This club is pretty dull right now, and I’m happy to build for the future. But there’s only one reliably good reason to buy an A’s ticket and sit and watch that club right now and that reason is Mark Ellis. Every thing he does out there, day after day … just beautiful. I don’t care what they get for Ellis: if Ellis goes there’s no reason to watch the club.
by solotar on Apr 18, 2008 12:14 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
that is the most ridiculous thing i have ever heard
maybe that’s hyperbole, but re-read what you just said. ellis is a solid player, but he’s hardly the reason why i would buy a ticket.
President of the Joey Devine fan club as of 1/15/08. Accepting applications for other positions. "He has no equivalent." -Paul DePodesta on Jeremy Brown
by flipgatey3 on Apr 19, 2008 8:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like Korach's idea.
Sign Ellis to a 50 year contract. Let him play for as long as he can. Then keep him in the organization for the rest of his life as a coach or whatever capacity he’d fit best.
I love Mark Ellis.
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by HigherPie on Apr 18, 2008 12:40 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I think everyone loves Mark Ellis.
I wouldn’t mind Stewart though. Wonder what else we could scrape together to interest them?
by OldhamA on Apr 18, 2008 12:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I love Ellis Too
Maybe we could trade one of the many young pitchers we got in the off season or trade Joe Blanton?
Cust is the new Jaha.
by johnjahafanclub on Apr 18, 2008 1:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
For even suggesting it...
I think we should trade you to the Rockies for a blogger to be named later.
Blasphemy!
2008 Oakland Athletics...more than meets the eye!
by OptimistPrime on Apr 18, 2008 3:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Chavez is under contract until 2010
so either Ian Stewart will be playing 3 years’ worth of bad D for the A’s at second base, or he’ll be playing 3 years’ worth of third base for AAA Sacramento.
The correct targets for the A’s in the Rockies system are Nelson and Gomez, who are further down the ladder and play positions where they aren’t blocked for Oakland (but ARE blocked for Colorado by Tulowitzki). If CO isn’t willing to give up one of them plus a pitching prospect, I say hold on to Ellis and extend his contract.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Apr 18, 2008 12:45 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
if our team policy
is going to be to rely on chavez manning 3rd 162 games/year for the next 3 years of his contract then we can kiss the playoffs good bye until 2010. we need to do what the dodgers did with juan pierre. recognize a bad investment and bench him – who cares what his salary is. ian stewart will still be making league minimum in 2010 so we could afford to do it.
Cust is the new Jaha.
by johnjahafanclub on Apr 18, 2008 1:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Even assuming you're right and the Rockies would make a 1-for-1 swap,
who’s manning 2nd base for the next 3 years? Chavez? Donnie Murphy? Melillo? Jesus Guzman?
Chavez is a sunk cost. Even if he’s not that good, the fact that the cost of playing him is zero means that it’s very difficult to come up with a plausible alternative to him.
He’s like 2034902740 times better than Juan Pierre, so that’s not a comparison that carries a lot of weight with me.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Apr 18, 2008 1:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Assuming I'm Right
We don’t necessarily have to trade Ellis… maybe we could trade one of our gazillions of young pitchers (save gio gonzalez and fautino de los santos) like greg smith. If we did trade ellis yes that would leave us with a hole at 2b but we currently have a hole at 3b. So basically we would still have a hole if we traded ellis but I think stewart will be much more valuable/better in 09/10/11 than ellis will be.
“Even if he’s not that good, the fact that the cost of playing him is zero means that it’s very difficult to come up with a plausible alternative to him.
He’s like 2034902740 times better than Juan Pierre, so that’s not a comparison that carries a lot of weight with me.”
Yes Chavez is better than Juan Pierre but only when he is HEALTHY – he is so brittle that we can’t use him. He’s literally never healthy. He is an offensive version of Rich Harden. The cost of “playing him” is worse than zero b/c we constantly are plugging in guys at 3b who do not belong in the majors. So yes, it’s time to recognize sunk cost and move on and find a permanent future 3b. Ian Stewart is a great opportunity. It’s not that often that a team has a two-time baseball america top 50 guy who they consider expendable who could fill a position that you really need.
Cust is the new Jaha.
by johnjahafanclub on Apr 18, 2008 6:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Who are you going to get in return for Greg Smith?
Jayson Nix? That doesn’t exactly solve the problem. You might as well just play Petit and move Crosby to second base. Problem is, that’s a worse offense than Chavez/Crosby/Ellis.
Or do you mean Greg Smith for Stewart? Not happening. I’d expect they would want at least two good prospects for him—Cahill plus Eveland, or something. Not a good idea.
Yes Chavez is better than Juan Pierre but only when he is HEALTHY – he is so brittle that we can’t use him. He’s literally never healthy. He is an offensive version of Rich Harden.
Is this a joke? Chavez has one season in his career of under 100 games. Rich Harden has one full season in his career, period. And even last year’s broken down model of Chavez hit far better than Pierre and played a tougher defensive position.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Apr 18, 2008 6:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
this is going to be chavy's second STRAIGHT year
playing under 100 games… I doubt he ever climbs above .800 ops for an extended period of time… even if he does… when you factor in all the .650-.700 ops games we will get from his replacement players in murphy and hannahan during his very extended DL stints… that drags Chavy’s numbers down and gives us pretty terrible 3b production
Cust is the new Jaha.
by johnjahafanclub on Apr 18, 2008 9:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think Chavez is the offensive version of Rich Harden
Rich has great stuff. Chavez is not that consistant at the plate. He is a popper upper.
by butler19 on Apr 18, 2008 6:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Juan Pierre has played in 11 of 16 games, and the last 9 straight. That is some benching
by theblackpearl on Apr 18, 2008 1:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It only seems like he's benched ...
since he’s been hitting at replacement level …
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on Apr 18, 2008 1:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not to say that Stewart is not a good prospect
but Colorado Springs is an extreme hitter’s park in a hitter’s league, the PCL. Here are the park factors for it in 2007: 1.15 hits, 1.08 2bs,1.14 3b, 1.08 HRs. 1 is normal. Below 1 is a park favouring pitchers. Note that these park factors are only relative to the hitter’s league that is the PCL. Relative to all of baseball, they would be even higher.
Colorado Springs is one of the most extreme hitter’s park in the minors, right up there with Albuquerque and High Desert.
And Stewart has spent most of his minor league career in favourable hitting environments, Colorado Springs in the PCL, prior to that Tulsa, which is a slight hitter’s park in the hitter’s league that is the Texas league. In A+, Modesto is a slight pitcher’s park, in the extreme hitter’s league that is the CAL.
Stewart’s minor league numbers are deceptive and need to be viewed in the context of his homeparks and leagues.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on Apr 18, 2008 12:46 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
where do you find those?
The A's colors are green and gold.
by mikeA on Apr 18, 2008 12:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
park factors shmark factors
I don’t think that the fact that stewart would have hit 8% less home runs (so 14 instead of 15 in 2007) in another league justifies not trading for him and sticking with eric chavez/jack hanahan for the next 3 years.
Cust is the new Jaha.
by johnjahafanclub on Apr 18, 2008 1:38 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Park factors shmark factors
yeah, the A’s should also have traded for Ryan Shealy. His numbers in the minors are FAR better than Stewart’s in the SAME PARKS.
Ask a Royals fan what they think of Shealy now that he is no longer hitting in Colorado Springs, and Tulsa.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on Apr 18, 2008 1:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
plenty of prospects
flame out and can’t hit in the majors (or pitch). it’s not just because of park factors. park factors are only one factor in evaluating the player.
for example, if the Rockies offered you Troy Tulowitzki for Bobby Crosby would you turn it down b/c of colorado park factors? It’s something to take into account and you should expect less numbers from tulo in oakland but he would still be an improvement over bocro. It’s the same thing with ian stewart. he won’t be a mashing .900 ops guy in oakland but probably a solid 20-80 .820 ops guy or something which is wayyy better than we have right now at 3b (chavy/hanahan/murphy) (and better than what i think ellis will do in 09/10/11).
Cust is the new Jaha.
by johnjahafanclub on Apr 18, 2008 6:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mark Ellis plays insanely amazing defense
Seriously.
If people evaluated his defense for what it’s actually worth, he would be a borderline All-Star every season.
Stewart is an indifferent defender. He would have to outhit Ellis in a major way to offset the defensive hit.
I’d like to see a 3-way deal to resolve this problem. Here’s my proposal:
Brent Lillibridge/Ian Stewart to Oakland
Mark Ellis/Atlanta A-baller to Colorado
Gregorio Petit/Alan Embree/another pitcher to Atlanta
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Apr 18, 2008 6:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good Defense is nice but I'm talking about the future
do you really want a 1960’s/1970’s-type infield full of guys – Chavy, Bocro, Ellis – who field really well but can’t hit at all?
Ellis is hitting well now but he’s turning 31 june 6th… his numbers will probably decline and he will back to 2003 levels by the time we want to compete in 09/10/11.
Cust is the new Jaha.
by johnjahafanclub on Apr 18, 2008 9:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
i dont understand the knocks on chavez
His numbers have been down due to those injuries (which he mostly played through), and even his down numbers don’t approach anything like the “60s-70s” type sieves you are talking about.
His career OPS is still a healthy .833, he still plays gold glove caliber defense, and guys with better offensive numbers than him don’t just grow on trees.
by mrrickyg on Apr 18, 2008 9:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
reposting from my comment above...
“this is going to be chavy’s second STRAIGHT year playing under 100 games… I doubt he ever climbs above .800 ops for an extended period of time… even if he does… when you factor in all the .650-.700 ops games we will get from his replacement players in murphy and hannahan during his very extended DL stints… that drags Chavy’s numbers down and gives us pretty terrible 3b production”
Cust is the new Jaha.
by johnjahafanclub on Apr 19, 2008 10:01 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hunh?
So, up above you insist that it would take Cahill + Eveland to land Stewart … yet here you say it would only take Ellis (and his
And what did we do once we discovered a rift in the fourth dimension? We launched a monkey into it. @('.')@
by monkeyball on Apr 19, 2008 12:42 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
uh ... AN3.0 ate my post
after the ellipsis, that should be: “yet here you say it would only take Ellis (and his less than 1Y of contract remaining) + (basically) Andy Devine”?
(Ah, I see: I used a less-than symbol that disappeared the remainder.)
And what did we do once we discovered a rift in the fourth dimension? We launched a monkey into it. @('.')@
by monkeyball on Apr 19, 2008 12:43 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes
Those two pairs are, in my mind, roughly equivalent in value to a contending team.
Ellis is a known +20 or more runs a season. You have to get a LOT of prospect value to equal that for a team that’s trying to win a division. And one assumes that part of the trade would involve a contract extension to Ellis, so he would be there for more than just the short rental.
They would also, presumably, be getting one of Single-A Rome’s starters (who are all very good, very young, and lefthanded) which while clearly a worse value than Cahill, are not that far behind him.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Apr 19, 2008 11:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
On my screen, your avatar looks like a rebus ending to your comment.
“It would only take Ellis (and his banana)?!”
"Huston, you're hot!'' said first baseman Dan Johnson, dressed as a bottle of mustard.
by Poppy on Apr 19, 2008 7:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Firstly,
I’d apply park factors to Tulo’s numbers. And then take him. Because even with park factors applied, he’ a damn good player.
Because he’s a SS. He’s a damn fine defensive SS. Arguably the best defensive SS in MLB.
It is not the same thing with Ian Stewart. Tulo has been better at the same ages compared to Stewart. Stewart plays 3b, he needs to be better.
Yes, obviously park factors are only one factor. They are also not something you blithely disregard. Go look at Omar Quintanilla’s numbers. He’s a former A prospect, now playing in Colorado Springs. Don’t his numbers look nice? An 834 OPS from a middle infielder last year. a 1121 OPS this year so far. Should the A’s try to get him back?
Stewart’s OPS in 2007 looked really nice, 857 in AAA at age 22. But, the whole PCL averaged an OPS of 783. The Colorado Springs Sky Sox average OPS was 805.
Secondly, read my posts again. I never said I would not take him. Just that his minor league numbers are deceptive and need to be heavily adjusted. My point is that you need to look at more than just his shiny numbers.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on Apr 19, 2008 12:32 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You seem to have not read my post properly
Those park factors are only relative to the PCL. Which is already a hitter’s league. That 1.08 is relative to a league that averaged 5.13 runs per games in 2007. MLB 4.77.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on Apr 18, 2008 1:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
where do you find minor-league shmark factors?
And what did we do once we discovered a rift in the fourth dimension? We launched a monkey into it. @('.')@
by monkeyball on Apr 18, 2008 2:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
and are they similar
to minor league jump-the-shark factors?
"Camelot sure fell apart, didn't it?"-Steve McCatty
by 5Aces on Apr 18, 2008 4:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
With grover's posting decline,
AN has suffered a dropoff in its minor-league snark factor.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Apr 18, 2008 5:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Go Schmarks!!!
I love hockey.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Apr 18, 2008 5:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm never snarky about minor leaguers
Everything else A’s related is fair game.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Apr 18, 2008 7:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
John...
Bite your tongue! Mark Ellis is the true leader of the team and the fan favorite. Beane please leave our ” loved one ” alone!
by IM4Oakgal on Apr 19, 2008 12:56 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I agree but
so were Nick Swisher and Dan Haren… even more so with them actually… I would miss Mark a lot if we traded him but when you are rebuilding, you are rebuilding.
Cust is the new Jaha.
by johnjahafanclub on Apr 19, 2008 9:59 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
i don't think a whole lot of people, when you boil it down,
wouldn’t trade mark ellis for another teams #1 or #2 prospect. from our responses, nobody actually wants to trade him, but for a potential all-star, we’d do it an an instant. The fact is, the Mark Ellis’ of the world don’t command top prospects from other teams, so it’s pretty easy for us to respond NO NO NO don’t trade Ellis.
Is Mark Ellis worth trading for top prospects-Yes! Is he worth trading for a handful of B prospects? Probably not.
by mrrickyg on Apr 19, 2008 11:16 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Booooooooooooooooooo!
"Don't be an ass!" --Bill King
by batgirl on Apr 19, 2008 7:04 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm all for trading Mark Ellis if...
Mark Ellis is a good player although I wonder how well he’s going to perform over the next few seasons. We’ve all heard of players having “career years” with the bat but from what I’ve seen players can have career years with the glove as well.
I don’t think that Ellis will maintain an above average bat over the next few seasons. I could be wrong, of course, it’s not like I can see into the future. The justification for signing Ellis to an extension would be if he maintained his superlative defense. I’ve got no problem keeping the best defensive 2nd baseman in the game for another 3-4 years if he’s got an average bat. But if he starts to slip defensively, you have to reconsider.
Now if the A’s don’t plan on keeping Ellis beyond this season then by all means shop him hard and trade him! It’s doubtful that Ellis is going to grade out as a Type A free agent after this season and a Sup 1 pick isn’t adequate compensation for a rebuilding team. Trade him for multiple prospects and move on.
Any player that the A’s don’t have long term plans for should be dealt by the end of July.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Apr 19, 2008 12:08 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
word
good post.
"Put some ice on it. After that, there's nothing a few beers won't take care of. " -Pink
by OrlandoAsFan on Apr 21, 2008 1:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's the same thought process...
... as any other trade Beane has made: if the return is good enough, pull the trigger. I’m done with hoping that the “fan favorites” will stick around (Byrnes, I understood to an extent. But Swisher?). This team has little value left on the roster, relatively speaking, and you have to imagine that Ellis is one of the pieces that would bring the greatest return. Since the team’s building for the future anyway, no one should be off limits.
And I think the reports of Chavez’s death are a little premature. He had multiple surgeries. He needs time to heal properly. Let’s wait until we actually see him play for a while after he comes back.
by Joey C. on Apr 19, 2008 1:44 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
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