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Monday Minors Musings: 1.0 (delayed)

This post was supposed to go up last night (hence the Monday part of the title) but due to an unexplainable technical glitch (me being an idiot) it did not auto-publish at midnight. I know there's been a flurry of minors-related postings over the last 24 hours, but I just thought I'd add my two-cents into the conversation and try to make this a regular Monday-ish posting for all of those out there who may want to know what's going on down on the farm.

Feel free to suggest things you'd like to see in the future regarding the farm teams:

Sacramento River Cats

Record: 5-6, Third Place PCL South Division

First Week Review: The Rivercats' pitching staff has performed just as well as advertised so far in this young season. In 6 of the team's 11 games the pitching staff has held the opposition to 3 runs or less. The starting staff has been particularly sharp so far, as Gio, Los Kirk, Brad Knox and "Diamond" Dallas have all accumulated 2 starts apiece and all sport ERA's under 3.00. Jeff Gray's pitched well in relief in 4 games (3.38 ERA, 3 K's, 1BB) as has AN's own Brad Zeigler, who has yet to allow a run in 4 innings pitched. He's got two strikeouts and hasn't issued a walk yet. Keep it up Brad!

The offense has lagged considerably behind the pitching staff, although that could be changing after tonight's offensive explosion led the Cats to an 11-5 victory over Las Vegas. The Rivercat infielders are not producing anything at the plate and what offense the team can muster has been pretty much concentrated in the bats of CarGon (.885 OPS) with 2 homers, Todd Linden (1.000+ OPS) and Danny Putnam (.934 OPS and 2 homers in only 33 at-bats) who was called up from Midland after Jeff Fiorentino went on the DL with a broken nose sustained in a collision with a first basemen in the 2nd game of the season and will be out "4-6 weeks".

The Hot List: SP Kirk Saarloos, who sports a 2-0 record and a sparkling 2.45 ERA, 1.27 WHiP, 7-1 K-BB ratio and 2.25 grounball/flyball ratio in 11 innings pitched. (which earned him a callup to the big league team yesterday en route to throwing 2 scoreless innings TODAY in Chicago! Congrats Los Kirk!)

The Not List: The RiverCat infield and SP Dan Meyer who got smacked around in his only start of the season a few days ago, only lasting 3 innings and giving up 4 hits, 3 walks and 5 runs.

***Transaction News: Graham Godfrey, one of the pitchers acquired from the Blue Jays for Marco Scutaro, was called up to AAA yesterday  from Stockton in place of the departed Kirk Saarloos. He was called on the 4th inning last night and made his debut, throwing 2 scoreless innings of relief with one strikeout. Depending on how long the injury issues last on the big club, Godfrey might be able to stick with the Cats for a week or so. Good luck Gilbert Godfrey!

Star-divide

Injury News: Grover covered this in his "Minor Minor League Update" but both Richie Robnett and Jeff Fiorentino will be out several weeks with non-major injuries...broken noses and benign stomach tumors and whatnot. Kevin Melillo remains in extended Spring Training rehabbing his wrist injury (will he ever be the same guy who belted 24 homers in 2005?) but is hoping to get back with team this weekend. Shane Komine, who hasn't pitched in what seems like a millennium, also remains in extended Spring Training.

Upcoming: The Cats continue their opening home stand this week, hosting the Tucson Sidewinders (D-Backs affiliate) for the rest of the week.

***Added Bonus: Carlos Gonzalez report courtesy AN's sactownbull:

Went to the Rivercat home opener last night. First time I've ever laid out $90 for minor league tickets but all they had left was two seats right behind home plate. My daughter and I really wanted to check out Carols Gonzalez so we figured what the hell. First off they lost 9-3 but who really gives a damn about the score of a minor league baseball game? We saw what we came to see. Is CarGon the real deal? Yes, very much so. His 2 for 3 night isn't what caught our eye, even though it was impressive seeing him go the other way for both hits . Stories are already flying around town about him being lazy and shows a lack of hustle. One ball in the gap was all it took to see where this is coming from. When the ball came off the bat, the only question we had was if it was in the park or not. Extra bases was the best case scenario. Gonzalez not only got to the ball, but did so in a manner so smooth it looked like he wasn't even running hard. But this cat was MOVING make no mistake. Later there was another shot that did get into the gap, it was a up and over the left fielder (Danny Putnum) maybe 10-15 feet to his left. As the ball came off the wall on the first hop Gonzalez beat Putnum to the wall, as arriving in full "glide" to take it and fire it back into the infield. He throws and swings much the same way as he runs. Smooth really should be this cat's nickname. Things just look so easy to this dude that some people are going to be mistaking it for laziness. There's a lot of talk about making him a right fielder due to his arm strength. I really do think that would be a mistake. The amount of ground he covers makes him extremely valuable in center. But wherever he plays one thing is for sure, it's not going to be in Sacramento for very long.

Midland Rockhounds

Record: 9-2, 1st place Texas League South Division

Week in Review: At the beginning of the season, I wouldn't have thought that the Midland Rockhounds would be the team to beat in the Texas League after a few weeks of competition. But alas, they have proven me wrong. The Hounds have pretty much man-handled the two teams they've faced so far this season (the Arkansas Travelers - Angels affiliate & Springfield Cardinals - St Louis affiliate) by outscoring them 62 - 35 over the first 10 games. The Rock Hounds lead the league in team batting average (.291) and team-ERA (2.48) so they are winning games on both sides of the field.

ROTATION

On the pitching side of things, Vince Mazzaro seems like he has made the transition from Stockton to Midland relatively easily, even as a 21-year old, as he was the team's Opening Night starter and has gone 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in 12 innings. No doubt Vince has pitched well and has a promising arm, but I expect those numbers to rise considerably over the course of the season, as Mazzaro still isn't striking anybody out (only 4 K's so far) and his BABIP-against has been extremely lucky at .250 in his two starts. Don't be surprised if he starts to get hit around a bit as all the balls he puts into play start falling for hits.

James Simmons, the other early-20's righty in the Midland rotation, is still being treated with kid-gloves by the organization, as he was limited to only 3 innings in each of the two games he started, even though he's been pitching well, only allowing 1 run in those 6 innings, while striking out 6 and allowing only one walk. Turn the kid loose, already!

BULLPEN

After a whirlwind calendar year that saw him spend an entire season in the majors before being placed on waivers once, getting claimed by the Red Sox, then getting placed on waivers twice, getting re-claimed by Oakland, then getting placed on waivers a third time before clearing them, Jay Marshall is finally back where his talent dictates he should be: at Double-A. He's responded by pitching well to both lefties and righties, pitching 8 innings, allowing only 1 run and striking out 7 without any walks.

OFFENSE

The Midland offense so far has largely been the doing of one man. Texas League Player of the Week INF Jesus Guzman is caliente, caliente, caliente! He got hot in the first week of the season and hasn't cooled off...at all. Overall, he's sports 1.321 OPS with three homers and a .535 batting average (the highest in the league). He also has a couple stolen bases. Guzman was signed as a minor league free agent this past off-season after spending 2004-2007 in the Mariners' chain. He's always had a promising bat for a middle infielder (.803 career OPS) but his defense has not been stellar. He's currently playing a lot of 3rd & 2nd in Midland and not embarrassing himself, so he'll get every opportunity to stay hot

A key supporting role has been played by Cliff Pennington, who is batting leadoff for the Hounds and sporting a .451 OBP buoyed by an unheard-of 13-6 walk-to-strikeout ratio. How can a guy with that type of strike-zone judgment not manage to bat close to .300 or slug over .400 for his career? I'm still holding out hope that Cliff turns a corner this season...

Organizational soldier Myron Leslie has also provided some key hits and RBI's for the Hounds offense so far (including a game-winning homerun in a come-from-behind victory last week). The Creole-hitting maching Jon Zeringue has also provided a major boost to the Rockhound offense, feasting on left-handed pitching, belting 4 homers and sporting a robust .949 OPS.

Cold as ice: C Anthony Recker's struggles from his AA-callup at the tail end of last season have persisted into 2008, as he's only mustered a meager .548 OPS this season. He's also faced some criticism for some of his blocking work behind the plate, so he's clearly got some work to do.

Injury News: The "Harden of the A's Minor League System" Javier Herrera has still not seen any game action in Midland so far as he remains in extended Spring Training rehabbing a recurring hamstring problem. The clock is ticking, Javy!

Upcoming: After losing last night 3-2 in 10 innings, The Hounds have one more home game against usual punching bags Springfield Cardinals tonight, and an off-day on Wednesday, before heading off to San Antonio to face the Missions (Padres affiliate) for a four game series starting Thursday.

Stockton Ports

Record: 7-5, Second Place California League North Division

Week in Review: After an up and down first week of the season where their offense often failed to reward the stellar efforts of the supremely talented starting staff, the Ports have finally come around to put in some well-rounded efforts, entering Monday night riding a 4-game winning streak. Overall, as was predicted by all the "experts" out there, the Ports have been carried by their starters so far and will probably continue to be for the rest of the reason.

ROTATION

All of the "Big Four" Stockton starters have impressed so far. Fautino de Los Santos leads the bunch as he was the team's Opening Night starter and has started 3 games total, one more than the others. So far, he's gone 1-2, with a 3.94 ERA. Overall, he's shown glimpses of what he can be, with his 20 K's in 16 innings, but he's also shown that he has a lot of work to do. The big knock on Santos before this season was that he was just a "thrower" who used his high-90's heat and slider to overpower unassuming A-ball hitters, and that he'd need to improve his control and learn how to really "pitch" in order to be successful at the higher levels. Well, unfortunately Santos still needs to work on that goal, as his WHiP currently stands at 1.44, which is not where a potential ace of a big league staff wants to be.

Henry Rodriguez dominated during his first two starts with 16 K's and 5 walks over 11 innings, and only allowed 1 earned run, but ran into some trouble tonight. He lasted 6 innings, but gave up 4 runs, even though he struck out 8 without walking anybody. Even though he earned the loss, his ERA after three starts still sits at a very nice 1.59. I'm really hoping that Rodriguez can progress up through the system as a starter, since having someone with his repertoire in the big league rotation would truly be a sight to behold!

Trevor Cahill has one-upped Rodriguez in terms of ERA, as his mark is even lower after two starts, currently standing at 0.75 ERA. Cahill's ball and strike control has been impeccable as he sports a 12-1 K-BB ratio, although he has hit 3 batters, which leads the team. He has only allowed 1 run in his 12 innings and has yielded only 8 hits which ties him with Brett Anderson for the best WHiP on the team, 0.67.

CALLUP ALERT: And speaking of Anderson, he's been simply marvelous so far this season. He's gone 2-0, without allowing a run in 12 innings, striking out 13, only walking 3, only allowing 5 hits and not hitting anybody. Before the season started, there was some debate about whether Anderson should be assigned to Double-A Midland to being 2008, even though he's currently only 20 years old! Well, if he keeps pitching this way, there's no doubt that Anderson will be in Midland before long.

The only blight on the starting staff so far has been Jared Lansford, who turned in the worst starts so far for the Ports, only tallying 8 innings pitched, and giving up 13 hits and 8 runs. The good news for Jared is that his control was solid, as he tallied an 8-1 K-BB ratio. But clearly, Jared is going to be the weakest link of this rotation...which isn't such a dishonor when you look at the talent in front of him.

BULLPEN

Good: Andrew Carignan just continues to roll on from his UNC closer days, as he already has 2 saves and 8 strikeouts in 6 innings of work. Arnold Leon has also made a strong impression out of the bullpen, tossing 5 innings of scoreless ball, striking out 7 and walking only 2.

Bad: Sam Demel's Stockton struggles continue into this season as he currently sports a 6.00+ ERA and a 2.33 WHiP after only 3 innings of work. Seeing as how Demel was taken a round before Carignan in last year's draft, you'd like to see him perform with the same success as his compatriot.

OFFENSE

Good: Sean Doolittle is making a believer out of all those skeptics out there who questioned whether a) he should have been drafted as a pitcher instead of a 1st baseman, and b) whether he'll ever hit for power. Doolittle leads the Ports with a 1.037 OPS and 3 homers and leads the entire California League with 14 RBI's. He's also played one game in the outfield, which could be sign of things to come, as Doolittle might be blocked at the upper levels of the system as a left-handed hitting first baseman. Archie Gilbert, Mr. Cal State - East Bay and Hayward native, has also made an impact on the Ports offense, as he has served as the team's primary leadoff hitter, getting on base at .423 pace and also hitting for some average (.372) and power (.512 SLG) with a homer and 3 doubles.

Bad: After moving into the hitter friendly California League, big things were expected out of BA's #10 A's prospect Chris Carter. So far, Carter's failed to live up to the billing, as he's flailed to the tune of .469 OPS, with only 1 RBI and 5 hits in 38 at-bats. He's also only walked 4 times against 13 strikeouts. Carter's got the ability to hit 25+ homeruns in the Cal League, but he's gotta get hot soon to do that.

Upcoming: The Ports continue their 3-game set against the San Jose Giants (SF Giants affiliate) tonight at 7:05pm in the South Bay., before coming home for a four game set against the RC Quakes (Angels) to conclude the week.

Kane County Cougars

Record: 11-1, First Place Midwest League

Week in Review: For one day (yesterday), the Kane County Cougars were the only undefeated team left in minor league baseball...but that all ended last night as the Cougars lost their first game of the season against the South Bend Skyhawks by a score of 5-4. But while the thought of a completely undefeated season was certainly exciting, this will now take the pressure off the Cougars and allow them just to continue playing great baseball, which is what made them undefeated in the first place.

ROTATION

Craig Italiano is the talk of the town so far in Geneva, IL. After sustaining a nasty skull fracture last season on a line-drive back to the mound that ended his season (and nearly his career) Craig has returned triumphantly to the mound of a professional baseball team. Craig was the Cougars' Opening Night Starter and has lived up to the billing of an ace so far this season, as he's currently 1-0, with a 1.93 ERA in 13.1 innings of work, to go along with a wicked 24-4 K-BB ratio.  Despite last season's setback, Craig's still only 21 years old with a lively, fresh arm that can reach back into the upper-90s. He's got the talent to succeed at the higher levels.

Italiano has been flanked by two command-and-control righties in Travis Banwart and Scott Mitchinson. Both righties have started two games apiece and have pitched well, combining for a 2.50 ERA in 19 innings total, with an aggregate K-BB ratio of 22-5.

BULLPEN

It's been closer-by-committee so far in Kane County as non-prospects Scott Moore and Jose Fragoso have tallied saves for the Cougars and even "Real Wives of Orange County" star and usual-outfielder Shane Keough has logged some work out of the pen (throwing a scoreless 17th inning Sunday night when every other pitcher had been maxed out). Lefty Brendan Dewing and Scott Deal seem to be getting the most innings out of the bullpen and have been pitching well, each having ERA's under 1.50. Lefty Brad Hertzler has also gotten a lot of innings as kind of a "second-starter" coming in for the middle innings and staying out there to set up the late-game relievers. He's got a 0.96 ERA in 9 innings pitched.

OFFENSE

The Good: The third time is the charm so far for Kane County vet Toddric Johnson, who begins 2008 in his 3rd cycle through Low-A ball.  The 5-toolish outfielder leads the Cougars with a .857 OPS, with 3 homers and a .267 average. Greg Dowling has provided most of the punch for the Cougars, leading the team with a 1.062 OPS with 4 doubles and 10 RBI's.

The Bad: The infield, as all the bats have been underwhelming and the infield squad has already committed 7 errors.

Upcoming: The Cougars have one more day game tomorrow at 10am PST against South Bend before hitting the road this weekend to take on the fearsome Lansing Lugnuts!

What the "Experts" Are Saying About A's Prospects

- Alex Eisenberg over at the Hardball Times lists DL-ed Midland outfielder Aaron Cunningham as a "Hitting prospect to watch in 2008"...Eisenberg breaks down Aaron's career stats, lists some things for him to work on and even includes a nifty slow-motion window of Aaron's swing.

- John Perrotto over at Baseball Prospectus lists CarGon as a possible  "Impact Callup" (subscription required) in his weekly "Every Given Sunday" column. Perrotto remarks that CarGon could take over center field at the big-league level sometime soon and provide a 2.9 WARP, which is what exactly, Staturday-nians?

- Baseball America ranks Stockton SP Brett Anderson as #5 on their first-of-the-season "Prospect Hot Sheet". BA mentions that Anderson's stats so far are very impressive for the hitter-friendly California League.

 

3 recs  |  Comment 83 comments

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When will then be now? Soon.

by Syphon on Apr 15, 2008 5:17 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Nice work. The only thing I don't like hearing is

there’s one more shovel of dirt on Dan Meyer’s career.
I guess we can all now officially agree this is one of the few blemishes on Beane’s tunure.

by Bacon on Apr 15, 2008 6:58 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Excellent write up Taj

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Apr 15, 2008 7:14 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

This must've taken a crapload of work

So thank you! Brilliant, brilliant stuff.

by Tyler Bleszinski on Apr 15, 2008 7:15 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I don't like to base things on one game...

...but watching Chris Carter last Wednesday, he just seemed slow at the plate. He didn’t have any good ABs against Bakersfield, but the only players who did were Dolittle (2 of their 3 hits) and Morris (HR).

On the other hand, Henry Rodriguez was very impressive.

by Flashfire on Apr 15, 2008 7:47 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Italiano

24Ks? 14 innings? I actually went and double checked to make sure it wasn’t a typo, that is unreal. He’ll be up as soon as a slot opens in the Stockton rotation, perhaps if Anderson gets bumped.

by Doug on Apr 15, 2008 9:45 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

He had to be pulled early from a start recently

because he was striking out so many hitters that his pitch count was too high. I believe it was something like 4 1/3 IP, 10 K, 2 BB.

It’s pretty clear that low-A hitters cannot handle his stuff at all. I agree with the inclination to call him up immediately—sometimes it’s clear that a level just isn’t challenging a player at all, and that’s definitely the case for him right now. I’d not be opposed to summoning him to Stockton right away and exiling Jared Lansford to the bullpen (or perhaps the batting cage… is it too late to turn him back into a position player?).

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Apr 15, 2008 9:56 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Apparently the frantic and spastic flexing of the elbow

doesn’t work as well when you’re on the mound.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Apr 15, 2008 9:57 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Terrific reporting

Your report reminds me why I admire the A’s organization as much as I admire its major league team.

"How old would you be if you didn't know how old you are?" -Satchel Paige

by ptbarnum on Apr 15, 2008 9:46 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Good work, Taj -

You remind me of a younger me. Or of an older me, depending how old you are. In the unlikely event we are exactly the same age, then you don’t remind me of me at all. And in the even more unlikely event of a water landing, please note that your seat cushion can be used to scribble out a quick will.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Apr 15, 2008 9:51 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Note to taj:

You are clearly outstanding in the field, but you might wanna stay away from the barn.

The meaning of life is not so much 'found,' as it is 'made.' --Opus

by The Dogfather on Apr 16, 2008 1:15 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Nice write-up, Taj

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but Brett Anderson was destroyed tonight, giving up seven runs on nine hits and a walk, while striking out just one over 2.1 innings.

Also, Jesus Guzman finally had an 0-fer, breaking his streak of eight straight multi-hit games. He also made two errors at third, reinforcing the idea that he’s not a great defensive presence. I think he’s someone to keep an eye on, but don’t expect too much.

On the bright side, it certainly appears that last year’s injury and time missed didn’t derail Craig Italiano much. Although, I do wonder about his control at times. Though he sports a brilliant 24:4 SO:BB ratio through 14 innings, he uncorked three wild pitches on Tuesday.

Also, I think Corey Brown is beginning to come around. After starting the season with just two walks and 14 strikeouts, he’s posted a 5:3 BB:SO ratio in his last five games. Over the last ten games, he’s hitting .286/.375/.488/.863.

If anyone is interested, I do daily minor-league recaps of the A’s system at A Minor Consideration, and keep tabs on what’s going on throughout the organization.

(Formerly known as "Nebraska")

The Pastime -- A Minor Consideration -- Catfish Stew

by Ryan Armbrust on Apr 15, 2008 10:49 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

thanks Taj for the work

Ryan, thanks too, I check your site daily (even though I am usually updating all the games in real time the night before).

I wonder what happened to Mr. Anderson tonight, he did get shellacked. Also Brad Knox has now had two great starts for Sacramento. He’s not really a prospect, but sometimes pitchers don’t figure things out until their mid-twenties, and sometimes they do improve suddenly and permanently.

by jakarta on Apr 16, 2008 12:09 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

If only we could produce some..

big time hitters. I hope thats they way we go in this years draft. Or target some in trades if we trade Blanton/Harden/Street.

When will then be now? Soon.

by Syphon on Apr 16, 2008 2:13 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I agree Syphon

When you talk about the A’s system its all about the pitching. Is the plan to develope tons of pitching and trade for bats down the road? To trade current MLB players for minor leauge bats? Do the A’s plan on spending more in FA down the road for hitters? Rebuilding is great but you have to have some bats to go along with the arms.

by asfaninpismobeach on Apr 16, 2008 9:06 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hitters make much better free agent signings

and pitching is always a fungible commodity, because no one ever has enough of it.

It’s also easier to draft hitters out of amateur ball. So the strategy of trading major leaguers for minor-league pitchers with good pro track records makes a lot of sense to me.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Apr 16, 2008 9:14 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Im really Hoping

Ryan Sweeney can develop into a 20hr guy. He certainly has the build for it. Hes a big guy.

When will then be now? Soon.

by Syphon on Apr 16, 2008 11:25 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sweeney's problem is his swing

It’s too long and slow to hit homers in the majors. He can do fine with an 80 MPH batting practice fastball but can’t jack one that’s at 95.

Maybe the A’s can “fix” him. I doubt it, though. He seems like a head case to me. An outfield version of Crosby, if you will.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Apr 16, 2008 12:26 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

demel

I saw Demel close at TCU last year. Huge K’s. 13 K/9 was second only to David Price for college pitchers, I think. He has a completely different delivery now, smoother, but about 6 mph slower. I suspect A’s coaches have made drastic changes in his previously violent motion. Give him time to adjust. Let’s see what he is doing by June. He started rough last summer at Stockton, but had a perfect 0.00 ERA in August at Kane.

by movetotexas on Apr 16, 2008 6:46 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

A 2.9 WARP is really pretty bad

Over a full season that’s about a win below average.

It’s not a bad number for a 22-year-old with potential, but it would be a liability for a competing team.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Apr 16, 2008 9:00 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

It's amazing how much offense being a decent CFer can make up for under WARP ...

Based on WARP, to this point, Sweeney is having an MVP caliber season and Denorfia is above average, even if though his hitting is AAA caliber …

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Apr 16, 2008 10:26 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Denorfia's

Denorfia’s EQA is a very poor 206. Average EQA for CF at the moment is 273.There a whole bunch of CF above him, too many to type out. The reason Denorfia’s WARP isn’t in negative numbers is because he rates well in BPro’s defensive metrics. They have him at 1 run below replacement in Batting Runs.

While Sweeney’s offense is very good for a CF, it isn’t MVP calibre, relative to other CFs. McLouth, Wells, Beltran, Ankiel, Hunter, Hamilton, Swisher, Inge are all having better offensive season at the moment. Upton, Sizemore and Young are having comparable seasons.

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on Apr 16, 2008 11:02 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

See my post below to detail "MVP Caliber" ...

Denorfia—I know, that’s the point. BP has him at 2 runs better than average defensively and 1 run worse than replacement offensively. He’s below replacement offensively, but, overall, above average, according to BP’s metrics.

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Apr 16, 2008 11:33 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm confused

Are you looking at WARP3?

That’s not useful except for historical comparisons. The replacement level in WARP3 is, speaking roughly here, what a AA player from the 1950s would play like if you dropped him into a modern baseball lineup.

By WARP1, both Deno and Sweeney are less than 1 win above replacement to this point in the season.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Apr 16, 2008 11:04 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sweeney has .4 WARP through 24 PAs

690/24 = 28.75
28.75 x .4 = 11.5 WARP1
10+ WARP1 = “MVP Caliber”

I’m not saying that he’s on pace to be the MVP—I’m pointing out that he’s amassed an impressive total (through a very small sample size) despite a good but far from great .853 OPS.

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Apr 16, 2008 11:31 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not sure what you're doing here

Are you trying to compensate him for missed playing time? Why? While he did not play, he did not provide value to the team.

Using WARP, there are several CFs alone with better WARPs than him.

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on Apr 16, 2008 1:04 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

If I was not clear before ...

let me state it very, very clearly:
I do not think that Sweeney will be or should be an MVP candidate

What I am saying is that his play, to this point, adjusted for playing, based on WARP would qualify as “MVP Caliber”.

My point is that this is almost entirely based on his defensive play—WARP seems to put much more emphasis on D in CF than any other observer.

It’s amazing how much offense being a decent CFer can make up for under WARP …

He would not or should not win the 15 game MVP award.

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Apr 16, 2008 1:13 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

But that WARP is the result of 2/3 offense

and 1/3 defense.

Not “almost entirely defense.”

On his current pace, he would finish (supposedly) 28 RAA defensively. That’s obviously crazy, but it’s not so crazy that it would turn an average hitter into an MVP candidate.

The reason why he looks like an MVP candidate is that his offense has also been way above average to this point. Couple a .300 EqA to 28 RAA defense and you are, essentially, Chase Utley. Who was an MVP candidate.

Honestly, I suspect there’s a whole lot of rounding error going on here. It’s pretty unlikely that he’s exactly 2 batting runs above average, 0.4 WARP, or any of that. Which makes projecting out to full season numbers pretty sketchy.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Apr 16, 2008 1:23 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

The rounding error point is definitely fair ...

I’m not talking about the actual formula—but the result of the formula (setting aside the rounding error issue): 2/3 good + 1/3 great = great … whereas, I think most observers would say that 2/3 good + 1/3 great = good, maybe very good, but certainly closer to good than great.

Chase Utley had a .322 EQA.

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Apr 16, 2008 2:16 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

warp gives a big "showing up" premium for the top defensive positions.

I think I recall reading that they have “replacement level” defense unreasonably low, such that, e.g. Mario Mendoza could put up a positive warp with a .153 eqa. So I don’t it’s about CF per se.

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on Apr 16, 2008 2:22 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Fair enough ...

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Apr 16, 2008 2:43 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

WARP give a big "showing up" premium for any position

That is one of its “problems”.

The replacement level for WARP1 is basically around 40 runs below average. For WARP2 and WARP3 it’s even larger.

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on Apr 17, 2008 3:48 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, I know...

but no one else who had a .300 EqA was even close to Utley in defensive ability. And Utley himself wasn’t 28 runs above average (Mark Ellis is about the only player in baseball who was that good). So… close enough.

2/3 good + 1/3 great will get you into the national championship game in college football.

Kansas’s national championship basketball team this season was about 1/4 “great” and 3/4 “good”, which was enough to make them the clear best team in the land.

The thing is, most players/teams/whatever that are called “great” are actually like 2/3 great and 1/3 average, which is about the same as 1/3 great and 2/3 good.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Apr 16, 2008 3:53 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Maybe WARP is looking at it in a more appropriate way ...

Regarding teams, though, a great team is always going to be a lot closer to average than a great player will be.

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Apr 16, 2008 3:56 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Like I said, there are a bunch of other CFs with better WARPs.

Chris Young 1.0, Nate McLouth, 0.9, Ankiel, 0.8, Beltran, 0.8, Vernon Wells, 0.7, Swisher 0.6, Upton 0.6.

So there a whole bunch of players with “MVP calibre” WARPs.

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on Apr 16, 2008 1:51 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Which has nothing at all to do with what I'm saying ...

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Apr 16, 2008 2:09 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I understand what you're saying, fwiw

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on Apr 16, 2008 2:10 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Nice ...

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Apr 16, 2008 2:18 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ankiel is playing CF?

I didn’t think his range was that good.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Apr 16, 2008 2:15 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, he's played exclusively in CF this year ...

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Apr 16, 2008 2:18 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wow

Amazing writeup, thanks.

There was a nest of that spider to that, but it is that.

by lurkerD on Apr 16, 2008 11:23 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I feel special. Jim Callis answered my.

question in his chat today.

Adam NY: Henry Rodriguez or De Los Santos?

SportsNation Jim: (2:46 PM ET ) Fautino.

When will then be now? Soon.

by Syphon on Apr 16, 2008 11:51 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

nickname

Graham should really be referred to as My Man Godfrey.

And what did we do once we discovered a rift in the fourth dimension? We launched a monkey into it. @('.')@

by monkeyball on Apr 16, 2008 12:29 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

In another Fanpost, there was mention to Cargon's hustle.

I am listening to the Rivercats game on audio, and they are playing the Las Vegas 51’s. They are the Diamondbacks AAA team, and Cargon played for them last year. The announcers were mentioning that Cargon was so graceful, it seemed like he wasn’t even trying, that he just glided so effortlessly.

by theblackpearl on Apr 16, 2008 1:08 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Cargon might be extra motivated to be "graceful" when...

playing against the Sidewinders and the D-Backs organization since a few members of the organization questioned his attitude last season!

by Taj Adib on Apr 16, 2008 1:49 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

How 'bout Corey Brown

3-5 today with 2 HR’s and a SB batting in the lead-off spot. Both outs were K’s but I’ll allow his strike outs as long as he hits equal amounts of homeruns.

by DiegoAsFan on Apr 16, 2008 2:56 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Someone with who has some idea tell me....

Why is Corey Brown considered a worse prospect than Swisher at that stage of his career (if that is true)?

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on Apr 16, 2008 4:02 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Mental makeup, maybe?

It ain’t physical ability, I can tell you that much. BA rated him the best athlete in the A’s entire system.

I don’t have the old prospect handbooks; maybe someone can weigh in with what Swisher’s ranking was in the 2003 handbook.

I ranked Corey as the #4 prospect in the system this offseason… there’s still room aboard the bandwagon, everyone. ;-)

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Apr 16, 2008 4:20 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, that's why "they" were saying he was drafted as low as he was

Seems odd to me…

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on Apr 16, 2008 4:30 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

He struck out more often than Jack Cust did at the same level as an 18 year old ...

He’s got a ton of upside—but he’s got a HUGE question mark that has nothing to do with mental makeup, too.

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Apr 16, 2008 4:32 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

If he hit as well as Jack Cust

with his (at least potentially) huge advantages in defense and baserunning, he would be a very, very good player. Pretty much Grady Sizemore, give or take a few rate stats.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Apr 16, 2008 5:06 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

What did Jack Cust do for the team that drafted him?

And remember, he was worse than Cust at a much older age …

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Apr 16, 2008 6:50 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I could go into great detail here

but there isn’t much point. Corey Brown is not Jack Cust.

Weren’t you the one who was making the point about raw age vs. experience, anyway? It’s not like Brown was sitting on his ass for three years. And it’s not really his fault that the A’s have been (overly, in my opinion) conservative about where they’ve assigned him.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Apr 16, 2008 10:11 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

He's not Jack Cust, that's true ...

And I’m not saying he’s not a solid prospect—he’s just very high risk, very high upside.

If he is going to make good on his vast physical tools, though, he will almost certainly have to improve his contact rate dramatically.

It’s not his fault the team has been conservative with him—but it is his fault that he hasn’t been able to make reasonable contact against the low level of competition.

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Apr 16, 2008 10:34 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Fewer strikeouts ...

as well as draft position.

Corey Brown
250 PAs (approx: BB+AB) , 77 SOs
Nick Swisher
266 PAs, 59 SOs

Corey Brown struck out 64% more often in his first professional season than Nick Swisher … (that’s a lot)

He also did it against inferior opposition, in short season, while Swisher started in full season, Low-A but played most of the season in High-A. That’s a big difference.

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Apr 16, 2008 4:30 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ok, that makes sense

A bit higher even so far this year…

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on Apr 16, 2008 4:35 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

And

would it kill the cube/milb.com to include a PA column?

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on Apr 16, 2008 4:38 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

the next step forward in CW stat presentation

That bugs me about every damn stats site.

And what did we do once we discovered a rift in the fourth dimension? We launched a monkey into it. @('.')@

by monkeyball on Apr 16, 2008 4:39 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

bref has it.

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on Apr 16, 2008 4:42 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yep ...

256 PAs for Brown
266 for Swisher …

Brown actually only struck out 60% more often …

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Apr 16, 2008 4:45 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

and fangraphs,

which also has it for pitchers, which is very very nice. I also learned at fangraphs just now that there was a pitchers in the 30s named Cy Blanton.

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on Apr 16, 2008 4:45 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, it's gotta be the "makeup issues"...

since those were the same issues that allowed Brown to fall down to the late 1st round last year.

Swisher struck out less than Brown did coming out of college and probably had a little more value as an effective switch-hitter, but besides that, Brown seems to have hit for a better average, more power, played better outfield defense and offered more of a complete package offensively (with his speed on the basepaths).

So, should we A’s fans be happy that Corey was such a complete sleezeball in high school that it affected his draft status enough so that Beane could nab him at 59th overall last season, when his talent alone should have gotten him drafted ten spots earlier?

by Taj Adib on Apr 16, 2008 4:30 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

switch hitter thing is also a good point

Brown’s speed is impressive given his body type. As for the personal stuff, maybe he’s the next Wade Boggs….

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on Apr 16, 2008 4:41 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

{invests in Tyson}

And what did we do once we discovered a rift in the fourth dimension? We launched a monkey into it. @('.')@

by monkeyball on Apr 16, 2008 5:06 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

That and the strikeouts ...

Seriously, those strikeouts are a HUGE issue. If a player can’t even make tolerable contact as a 21 year old college draftee against the lowest level of competition in short season rookie ball, he’s got a TON of ground to make up.

Seriously, the guy struck out more than Jack Cust.

The number of guys who could hit the ball to the moon, when thrown waist high, down the heart of the plate that topped out at AA is nearly as numerous as the number of pitchers who could throw a very, very straight fastball in the mid 90s, as well as a changeup in the mid 90s who never saw the bright lights of the show.

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Apr 16, 2008 4:42 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

At least he's also getting a ton of BBs

which might suggest that he takes a lot of pitches more than that he hacks at bad breaking pitches. But I guess there’s enough of both to go around with that many Ks.

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on Apr 16, 2008 4:48 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Also, stats wise,

Swisher only really became Swisher when he reached AAA, and MLB, at age 23. His numbers prior to that were not all that impressive, especially when you consider the hitting environments.

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on Apr 17, 2008 3:57 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Back from Sacramento

Will be working on photos but as bad as Dan Meyer pitched last time, he did a complete 180 today:

6 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 4 K

Dropped the ERA from 15.00 to 5.00 with that outing.

Ryan Wing came on to start the 7th and gave up a hit to the first batter he faced, then Brad Ziegler (who pulled double duty by taking part in a pregame talk with a bunch of kids from schools in the area along with Todd Steverson) gave up just a single in two innings of work to finish it off, striking out three.

It was also my first time seeing Carlos Gonzalez and what others are saying about things just looking easy for him seem to be true. He went 3-for-4 and turned in a highlight-reel catch by running into the right-center gap to chase down a fly ball that had extra bases written all over it, and it ended up being Meyer’s last out of the day.

I’ll have photos up either tonight or tomorrow.

by Flashfire on Apr 16, 2008 5:03 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I was really shocked

at how quickly people here were willing to stick a fork in him and declare him done.

I guess it’s just residual bitterness over the Hudson trade or something. It’s not his fault, guys.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Apr 16, 2008 5:34 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

elitist

And what did we do once we discovered a rift in the fourth dimension? We launched a monkey into it. @('.')@

by monkeyball on Apr 16, 2008 5:43 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oh, come on

Not only was that post unusually short for me, it also contained virtually NO facts! It was almost completely analysis-free…

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Apr 16, 2008 10:13 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sorry. Was attempting a funny.

Google “bitter + elitist”

And what did we do once we discovered a rift in the fourth dimension? We launched a monkey into it. @('.')@

by monkeyball on Apr 17, 2008 9:42 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think it's the fact that people are underselling his injury.

The end of last year was the first time he was truely healthy, and obviously you lose some control if you’ve not pitched for that long. Right now he’s waaaay down on the prospect lists thanks to the influx of pitching talent, but he still has a shot at a major league career.

by OldhamA on Apr 17, 2008 12:33 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oh, and...

...in their first two games against Tucson, Sacramento pitchers have combined to allow no runs on a total of six hits and three walks.

by Flashfire on Apr 16, 2008 5:22 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Thanks for the Sactown report!

Good for Meyer. That guy might just need a change of scenery to get his career back on track.

by Taj Adib on Apr 16, 2008 6:25 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Random observation

Just noticed this going through yesterday’s photos:

Todd Linden was using a bat with Milton Bradley’s name on it. That’s weird, but maybe there were some leftovers after Bradley was traded.

by Flashfire on Apr 17, 2008 12:31 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

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