Shutdown Harden & Duke
by Bambi on Apr 13, 2008 9:09 AM PDT
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PrintThat's right. Shut em' both down. I don't want to see either one of them starting a game until after the All Star break. Starters throw too many pitches, and I want to see them hold up for a few months before exposing them to that level of stress. And I certainly don't want to see either one of them in the bullpen, where the erratic schedule can really damage them. Instead I want to merge them into one pitcher named HarDuke.
HarDuke is a two armed monster. The Harden arm throws the first 5 innings of the game, and then the Duke are throws the next 4. For the following game they flip it, and the Duke arm gets the first 5 innings followed by 4 innings of Harden. The rest of the bullpen wouldn't even have to warm up that day unless the game goes into extra innings. No matter how well or how badly the game goes, HarDuke will be the only one touching the ball for the first 10 innings.
Some of you may remember this post from before, and it's needed now more than ever. We all can see that Duke and Harden are incredible when they're healthy, and we know how fragile they are. Doing the same old thing is not worth it, and it's time to try something new. A two bodied player may be ineligible to win a Cy Young Award, but if together they pitch well enough to win one the A's will be in great shape. Say goodbye to Harden & Duke, and say hello to HarDuke.
[Heretical notion. A year ago our pitching pipeline was empty and we needed Braden as a future starter. We therefore had to take away his screwball to ensure he stayed healthy. Now that we have loads of solid prospects, we can afford to put him in the bullpen and let him throw his screwball. Not to be harsh, but we can now afford the injury risk of getting a truly unique player. Would you rather have a mediocre 6th starter, or one of the best left-handed bullpen arms in the game. I don't know myself, but it's worth thinking about.]
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Is it me
or does harduke sound like a cartoon version of a james bond villain?
"First Zito and now DJ? The Giants are like A's landfil." - a paraphrase of Since72.
by Athletics fan and runner on Apr 13, 2008 9:15 AM PDT reply actions
That sounds vaguely like a character in a Tolkein creation..
"God doesn't pay attention to your cute little hypotheticals." -- Jeff from LL
DickDuke?
2008 Oakland Athletics...more than meets the eye!
by OptimistPrime on Apr 13, 2008 1:55 PM PDT up reply actions
LOL
2008 Oakland Athletics...more than meets the eye!
by OptimistPrime on Apr 13, 2008 3:06 PM PDT up reply actions
You win
I love how creative our fans are
2008 Oakland Athletics...more than meets the eye!
by OptimistPrime on Apr 14, 2008 12:40 PM PDT up reply actions
It sounds like
HADOUKEN!!
Green Hulk Fists
by oaklandSMASH on Apr 14, 2008 8:23 PM PDT up reply actions
I understand the sentiment behind this request
I heard suggestions like this before and I just don't think it's a very practical idea.
What's the End Game? What are you trying to accomplish with this plan?
If the goal is to help the A's win more games then arbitrarily benching Harden and Duke until mid-July, regardless of how they feel, runs contrary to that goal.
You still expect 5 innings of goodness every 5th day from both pitchers. Why combine them to pitch only one day? Why not give the A's a chance to win 2 games instead of 1? Seperate them in the rotation so there's always at least 1 day between their starts (and until August there should be enough off days to juggle things so 2 days seperation could be managed) and have a long man (DiNardo) designated specifically for those days. DiNardo can give you 2-3 IP each time out, thus saving your bullpen.
If the goal is to trade Harden and/or Duke for prospects then NOT letting them pitch until mid-July kills any trade value they may have. Teams are going to want to know that Harden or Duke can give them innings, the only way to do that is to let them pitch.
Again, I understand the frustration behind this post. But this idea doesn't help the A's win in 2008 and it doesn't help them build for 2009 and beyond.
Therefore it's a bad idea.
The monster at the end of this blog.
There is a huge problem with designating a long man for each of them.
The long man won't be nearly as good as Duke or Harden, and so it will be really hard for Geren to pull them out after 5 innings if they insist they feel fine. We both know he would never do it, and you'd be the first to attack him if he did. By forcing the two of them to pitch the same game, it means the only way Geren can give more innings to Harden is to take them away from Duke or vice versa. This is the only plan I've ever seen which forces Geren to under-utilize these two pitchers for the first half of they year. By ensuring they stay healthy the first half of the year, we can have them rested and prepared for the 2nd half, which is what really counts for the A's.
The alternative is to do more of them same, which hasn't worked. The textbook definition of insanity is to do the same damn thing time and again and expect different results.
By combining them to one game we have an excellent shot of winning that game and not having a weak long man kill it for us. Having a day off will also help the bullpen rest by not having to prepare as they do every other day. This idea may force us to place an extra pitcher on the 25 man staff, but it's worth it to have a Cy Young equivalent like HarDuke on the staff.
First off, you're changing your story
Not letting Harden or Duke pitch in the first half is truly under-utilizing them.
Secondly, you put pitch counts on Duke and Harden and they don't get to argue otherwise. Now if Duke is on his 80th pitch while in a 2-2 count vs. a batter you can let him finish the guy off but you've already got someone in the bullpen ready to face the next batter.
As for the designated long man, true he won't be as talented as Harden but that doesn't mean he's a garbage pitcher. DiNardo (to stick with the obvious example) has proven he can get big league hitters out. He won't be dominating but he should be able to get the job done. And if he can't you find someone else, maybe Braden or maybe you promote Gio Gonzalez and let him get his feet wet in designated long relief.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Didn't change my story at all
Making the two of them share the same game means we get the benefit of both of them, while making sure they each are comfortably below their warning level.
Let me ask you this. What do you expect to happen if the A's try HarDuke for the first half of the season? Do you think each of them will be less likely to be injured? Do you think we will win most of the games that they pitch? Do you think they'll be in better or worse shape after the All Star break when they each go back to being a full length starter?
When I wrote this post I knew the most common vote here will be who cares about these two - they're too fragile to pitch anyway. Talk about defeatist! I have yet to see any plan which takes better care of these two by reducing their injury risk yet still enables them to help us win every 5 days. It's not perfect, but it's the best of all our crappy options. If you have a better idea I'd love to hear it. Just don't tell me to keep on doing the same thing we started the season with. Been there, done that. It's strategies like that which caused most of us to lose all hope for those two. Personally I like an approach that gives us some reasonable hope.
Ugh
That's right. Shut em' both down. I don't want to see either one of them starting a game until after the All Star break.
VS.
By forcing the two of them to pitch the same game, it means the only way Geren can give more innings to Harden is to take them away from Duke or vice versa. This is the only plan I've ever seen which forces Geren to under-utilize these two pitchers for the first half of they year.
Both quotes are yours, one says they don't pitch in the 1st half AT ALL while the other strongly suggests they can pitch in the 1st half. Which is it Bambi?
As for what I think, your plan calls for a 5/4 - 4/5 innings split weekly between Harden and Duke, so essentially your asking them for 9 IP a week. If you split them up like I suggest your asking for 10 IP a week. I don't think you reduce any risk of injury by asking for 9 vs 10 innings pitched. Your plan DOES NOTHING to protect Harden and Duke from further injury. My suggestion gives the A's a better chance to win 2 games then to win 1, because the long man you're so adament against is going to have to START that 2nd game in the week.
Duke and Harden went down in spite of every precaution possible to limit their workload. Duke made a 5 IP start and went on the DL, how does your plan prevent that from happening?
Did the A's rush/push Harden and Duke to get them ready for the start of the season? Maybe. If they did then that was the problem, not how Geren used them.
The monster at the end of this blog.
My Bad
What I meant was I don’t want to see either one of them starting a full game. Instead, I want them to share their starts until the All Star break. I think in concepts, not words, so I can be hard to understand. I’m sorry for the misunderstanding and will try to be clearer.
Under my plan Duke would have pitched 4 innings, not 5. Each of their workloads would have been less, so the chance of injury also would have been lessened. The games they pitch will be ones we’re expected to win, and Geren can’t squeeze out more pitches from one of them without stealing from the other. This is the only plan which forces him to baby the two of them for the next few months AND gives a great chance to win every five days.
Let me ask you the same question I asked Paul below. "If and when these two hurt themselves AGAIN, wouldn't you have wished you at least TRIED this idea?" If a diminished start on a regular schedule is still too much for them, at least we’ll know we gave them every chance we could. It’s time to err on the side of giving them too little work until they prove themselves.
No, I wouldn't wish it
Because your not doing anything to protect either pitcher. Let's go to your opening piece again.
HarDuke is a two armed monster. The Harden arm throws the first 5 innings of the game, and then the Duke are throws the next 4. For the following game they flip it, and the Duke arm gets the first 5 innings followed by 4 innings of Harden. The rest of the bullpen wouldn't even have to warm up that day unless the game goes into extra innings. No matter how well or how badly the game goes, HarDuke will be the only one touching the ball for the first 10 innings.
You are allowing for Duke to pitch 5 innings during the game he relieves and you are expecting Duke to give you 5 innings when you flip-flop them next time around.
You are anticipating 5 IP from both pitchers every time they go on the field. Which is exactly what I'm suggesting, only I've split those innings between 2 starts in the same turn of the rotation.
It’s time to err on the side of giving them too little work until they prove themselves.
5 IP is the bare minimum you expect from big league starting pitchers. It's what YOU are expecting from them. If they cannot provide that then they are not big league starting pitchers. Either they can perform at this minimum level or they can't, you just can't manage around that.
The monster at the end of this blog.
So let's see
1) You want to give the bullpen 8 innings over 2 days. Wouldn't that wear them out a bit?
2) By having them both pitch on the same day, we have an excellent chance of winning that game. Together, HarShire is one of the better pitchers out there.
3) My way ensures they never pitch more than 5 innings, since giving more to one will only take away from the other, which Geren would never do. Under your plan Geren will face loads of criticism which under my plan he won't. I make doing the right thing easy.
4) Under my plan they throw at most 5 innings. I turn the minimum into a maximum. They will get 4 innings every other game. No plan out there gives them an easier load than I do. If we follow it and they still get hurt, shoot em and sell em for dogfood. But before we give up all hope, why not give them the easiest schedule ever made for 2 starting pitchers.
5) Don't you wish we tried this last year?
Yes, let's see
1) 8 innings over two days seperated by at least one if not two days in between, with 4 of those innings pitched by a designated long man. That leaves a maximum of 4 innings to be handled by the rest of the bullpen so "No" I'm not worried about tiring the pen.
2) If you were calling them Harderer I might let you have this one. The reality is pitch count is much more important than IP. Let's say you set the limit at 70 pitches but Duke is at 50 after 5 IP. Why couldn't he go on? But if you want to stick with your dogmatic inning total, fine. 5 quality IP from your SP should put your team in a good position to win the game every time out. Why then deny yourself the chance of getting two good pitching performances on two days?
3) Bambi, is Beane adopts the 5 inning plan in one form or another you can bet that Geren won't keep Harden or Duke out there come the 6th inning. Don't forget, even under your plan Geren could say "To Hell with it" and not bring in the designated reliever, he could keep his starter out there for the 6th inning.
4) You've given yourself the option of letting your reliever pitch the 10th if it ever happened. There is absolutely no reason to believe that 10 IP will ruin 'em but 9 IP will save 'em. And the easiest schedule ever was 3 IP. LaRussa tried it back in the 90's.
5) No, I don't wish we tried this last year and I hope it doesn't happen this year. It's not a good plan. It doesn't protect the pitchers and it reduces the chance to win baseball games.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Actually, the textbook definition of insanity is
"unsoundness or disorder of mind; mad; deranged; delirious."
The above definition, while cute, is also totally farcical. Doing something over and over that doesn't work isn't insanity, it's stubbornness, or stupidity if you will.
Every time someone says that's the definition of insanity, Hermes (greek god of language) kills a kitten.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
No, the textbook definition of that is just
Doing something over and over (and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over).
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
doing something over and over that doesn't work
May be a very sound, smart approach ... if you only need it to work once. Imagine throwing a stick at a ball to knock it out of a tree. It depends on the application.
I would like to see
Braden get a chance out of the bullpen this season. Are you sure they took away his screwball when he was coming out of the pen at the end of last season, I kinda remember him throwing it.
"I Will Not Relent, I Am Driven"... Clutch
Bring Back The Bash!!!
I agree
When Duke or Harden reach the point that one of them can go the distance, I'd like to see the other one share his games with Braden. I think he can do well the first and second time through the lineup, so if you limit him to 4 innings he can be great.
HarSHIRE!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
You got me!
That IS a better name. Should I change it? :-D
You got me.
That IS a better name. Should I change it? :-D
Can I just point out
that both Harden and Duke threw very modest numbers of pitches in their last starts and got hurt anyway?
It's not pitch counts. They are not Kerry Wood. They're just fragile, or, if my hunch is correct in the case of Harden, already injured.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Think of it this way
If they didn't pitch at all they'd certainly be fine.
Every pitch increases the risk of injury, and considering how fragile they are, I want to be way below the danger level.
If we try this and the two STILL injure themselves, they we'd know we did everything we could ato help them and they just couldn't make it. Anything less than that and you have to wonder "What if?" What if we had done this from the beginning of last year? Would we have gotten more innings out of these two? Would that have given us a winning season? The way I see it we lose nothing by trying this. We need a reason NOT to do it, and I haven't seen a good one yet - unless if you think history be damned - these two can be full time starters for an entire year without hurting themselves.
If and when these two hurt themselves AGAIN, wouldn't you have wished you at least TRIED this idea? (Hey, I figure if I can convince you to try this, it really has a shot.)
Bambi, interesting idea,
but, I believe the problem is that no one has any idea what the danger level is for Harden. Or Duke for that matter.
Take your proposition, You set a limit of 5IP in start A, and then 4 IP in start B. You have them pitch 5IP, and only 5IP in a start.
Why? Why 5IP? Why not 4? Why not 4 1/3? 4 2/3?
Secondly, What if the guy is struggling mightily on a particular day, and by the 2nd IP, has racked up 60 pitches say, and is seeing his pitches killed. Would you still make him pitch 5IP? Even considering that having him try to pitch max effort, ie against MLB hitters, when his mechanics are off, likely increases the chances of injury?
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
So take the idea even further
Limit them to 70 pitches each. Between the 2 of them that still gives you 140 pitches, which for solid pitchers like them is usually enough to finish a game. The reason to get both of them to pitch on the same day is that it forces Geren to limit each of their pitch counts, since giving more to one pitcher means taking away from the other. Having them take turns starting is also a way of lessening the load on each of them.
How about 5 innings or 70 pitches - whichever comes first for the "first starter", and 4 innings or 60 pitches - whichever comes first for the "second starter". Whoever starts and gets the slightly larger role one game will have the slightly smaller role the next game.
For once I want to err on the side of giving them too little work, at least until they stay healthy for several months. This is the best way I know of to ensure that it happens. You're right that we may need to do even more, but this is a solid first step. By having them both pitch on the same day we can expect to win those games, and we don't have to make the bullpen pitch 8 innings over 2 days, which we may have to do if they pitched on separate days. Big problems sometimes need radical solutions. Let's give this one a try. The only good complaint I've seen so far is that it doesn't go far enough. If that's the case, let's take this idea even farther.
Obviously if one of them is struggling, we'll need another pitcher to help out. This idea may require us to add another pitcher to the 25 man roster. Still, if it gives us half a Harden and hlaf a Duke, it will help us win a whole lotta games.
My critique of your proposal
has nothing to to with it not going far enough. My complaint is that you have provided no reasoning as to why you set the limits you do. Why 5IP? Why not 5/13 IP? Why 70 pitches? Why not 75? 72? 73?
"Big problems sometimes need radical solutions. Let's give this one a try. The only good complaint I've seen so far is that it doesn't go far enough. If that's the case, let's take this idea even farther."
Before you solve a problem, you need to define WHAT the problem is. What is wrong with Harden? Overworked? How?
"Obviously if one of them is struggling, we'll need another pitcher to help out. This idea may require us to add another pitcher to the 25 man roster."
And if both are struggling? Are you going to carry a 14 pitches?
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
Here's my point
Between the two of them they can carry the load of a regular pitcher. We may need to add another pitcher to the staff if together they pllay the role of only one pitcher, but wow, what a pitcher they could be.
Whatever we have palnned for the two of them, knock off 20 pitches a game. Keep it well on hte low side for a few months. The best way to ensure Geren won't be pressured to keep one of them in for too long is to have htem both pitch on the same day. gviing more to one will take away from the other. So far this year we had Harden at 95 & 86 pitches, and Duke at 73, and they are each injured. Knock off an inning or two and keep them at 60 or 70 pitches. If we do that, we will be giving them the easiest pitching role in the majors. 60-70 pitches every 5 days and nothing in between. No pitcher has ever had it so easy. If they still can't make it then take out back, shoot em, and sell their body parts to the glue factory. But before giving up all hope, let's give them this shot. We have nothing to lose.
Yes, but are they injured because of the number of pitches they threw?
You're implying a causality that isn't necessarily there. Maybe Harden was already hurt to begin with? Duke threw one pitch and felt a twinge; your strategy wouldn't work for him either. He could have felt that same pain at 45 pitches, and the odds of that are fairly similar. Pitchers that are conditioned to start don't reach injury fatigue after 75-95 pitches. Your argument would contradict most of the work that has gone into pitch counts and the biomechanics of pitching in general. The pitch counts you set are so arbitrary here, and I don't see how they would benefit anyone except for limiting the potential innings that Duke and Harden could pitch while healthy.
Prince: This bores me. Is anyone up for a game of basketball?
FWIW, most of the "work" that has been done into
pitch counts, is also extremely arbitrary. BPro's Pitch Abuse Points, for one, is completely arbitrary.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
Oh I agree
It's such a complicated subject because human physics are involved. You've got biomechanical considerations, health considerations, genetic considerations, etc. It's near impossible to make an accurate determination as to what is a good pitch count.
Prince: This bores me. Is anyone up for a game of basketball?
The problem is not really so much complex issues here.
The problem here is the people who came up with, PAP, for example, appear to have totally ignored basic physics.
Force = mass * acceleration. Work = force * d.
Where in pitch counts, or PAP, do you see force accounted for? The FUNDAMENTAL flaw in pitch counts, and PAP, is it totally ignores INTENSITY, and focuses entirely on VOLUME.
Pitch counts, and PAP, treats a 100 mph fastball, a 95 mph fastball, a 90 mph fastball, an 85 mph fastball, all the same. No effort is made to account for intensity AT ALL. And that's only fastballs. Sliders, curves, changes, splitters, cutters, have to be accounted for too.
Until someone makes an attempt to account for intensity, all the "work" is misguided.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
work = force * distance
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
its all a fuzzy science
but they are decent rules of thumb. PAPs are useful because though arbitrarily created, they can be followed objectively, and if followed result in fewer injuries. If Dusty Baker knew what a PAP was, the Cubs would (ok might) be downright scary.
But of course you have guys like Harden who can't much stress it seems, and guys like Livan Hernandez that can throw 150 pitches and never be fazed. But on average, its a reasonable guess/rule of thumb.
Sort of arbitrary in the way the QS stat is arbitrary. Sure, a guy can have a 4.50 ERA and 180 IP in 30 GS and have 30 QS, but by placing a limiting factor you create a decent tool of measure to single out good pitchers. PAPs are a reasonable rule of thumb for protecting pitchers.
PAP is not arbitrary the was QS is arbitrary.
QS does not ignore a FUNDAMENTAL LAW of physics.
Baseball, in its use of pitch counts and PAP, is the probably the only sport that COMPLETELY ignores intensity when calculating workload. Runners, jumpers, throwers, swimmers, weightlifters, etc, all take intensity into account. What makes baseball special, that it can ignore basic physical laws.
” PAPs are useful because though arbitrarily created, they can be followed objectively, and if followed result in fewer injuries. If Dusty Baker knew what a PAP was, the Cubs would (ok might) be downright scary.
But of course you have guys like Harden who can’t much stress it seems, and guys like Livan Hernandez that can throw 150 pitches and never be fazed. But on average, its a reasonable guess/rule of thumb.”
Except, there’s little to no evidence that supports the arbitrary numbers that PAP uses. Saves are also arbitrary and can be objectively followed. Yet the same people who use PAP often deride saves.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
Also, Kerry Wood had already torn his UCL
BEFORE Dusty Baker got his hands on him.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
But then you are also looking at body types and how that force is distributed within the body
I think you are reaching into a whole other realm by including physics. Biomechanics is not an easy science when human tolerances and characteristics are taken into account. As an engineer, I don't think it would be easy at all to make the determination that pitch intensity is a factor in injury. Maximum intensity for one person may be less because they aren't as strong, but because they aren't as strong, they can't resist as much force, leading to a stress injury. There isn't a clear cause and effect study that you can point to that would help you verify your estimations.
PAP is a good estimation of volume, which is probably the most important and the most measurable consideration when participating in an activity that involves multiple repetitions with a low weight.
Prince: This bores me. Is anyone up for a game of basketball?
I'm not saying that it's easy
Yes, sure, force is distributed differently for different people.
That doesn’t mean you simply ignore the FUNDAMENTAL LAWS of physics. Like it or not, as long as we are humans in this universe, we are subject to those LAWS.
Re max intensity, max intensity refers to the maximum capability of a particular person. Say, you can throw a fastball at 100 mph. Now, you throw a fastball at 90 mph. That means that you are throwing at 90% intensity.
“PAP is a good estimation of volume, which is probably the most important and the most measurable consideration when participating in an activity that involves multiple repetitions with a low weight.”
Really? So, I suppose long distance runners only count the distance they run? They do not bother accounting for time? a 10 minute mile is the same as a 5 minute mile?
NO.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
So why not send them to the pen?
Cut their pitch counts to the bone.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
If I don't see a witch doctor to cast a health spell on them and they are injured,
would you have to wonder "what if I had"?
If I drink an Arizona instead of a Snapple and then they get hurt, should I have drunk the Snapple?
I don't think either of them is very likely to make it through a full season, but the goal here is not maximizing the probabilistic chances that they survive a full season-- it's maximizing the number of innings they pitch. (I'm oversimplifying a bit, because there's also the chance that one of them could be traded, but that's a separate issue.) And the way to do that is to pitch them in a normal usage pattern until they get hurt, wait for them to get healthy, and then do it again.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Close
The goal is to maximize the "expected" number of innings which they pitch, which takes the risk of injury into account. If giving them "diminished starts" reduces the risk of injury, then it can be expected to give them more innings throughout the season.
We tried regular usage for Harden last year - and the year before that and the year before that. Look what it gave us! Isn't it worth trying a different approach, one that decreases the risk of the injuries which have killed several seasons of his? His single biggest problem is his injury risk, and so our plan should be the one which minimizes that risk.
Ask anyone here if they’d be happy with 150 innings from Harden this year. They’d be overjoyed! That’s what my plan gives if you use it an entire year. To use it until the All Star break will cost you even fewer innings. Worth a shot, don’t you think?
Personally I think having them both pitch on the same day also increases the odds that they combine for a win and don’t have an exhausted bullpen ruin it for them, but that’s another debate.
It doesn't decrease his injury risk
at least not on a per-inning basis, which is all that matters.
You're assuming what you're trying to prove without actually proving it.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
I think we can all agree
That throwing fewer innings can decrease the risk of an injury. There was talking of moving Harden to the bullpen since that allows him to throw fewer pitches at a time, but the more frequent outings itself could increase the injury risk. This plan gives him the best of both worlds from an injury perspective. If it doesn't work the dude is truly hopeless.
Now you say he's truly worthless anyway, and you may be right. But why not try something different before reaching that scary conclusion.
Throwing fewer innings only appears to decrease the risk of an injury
because the pitcher is throwing fewer pitches.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
I agree on Harden
Harden's velocity was noticeably down this year, and even in past years, he threw 97 mph with a torn elbow ligament. I think expecting anything from him for his career is unwise. We will probably see him eventually go the way of Mark Prior.
Prince: This bores me. Is anyone up for a game of basketball?
Before giving up all hope
Is it worth giving him a shot as half a starter? Half the load every 5 days? Why not try it?
If he's injured, he's injured
The workload won't really affect things one way or the other. His arm will still be sore pitching once every 5 days, and he will still miss time due to injury. I know because I dealt with shoulder issues, and no matter how little you throw, you will still be really, really sore the next day. It's more beneficial for the A's to at least try to have him to start every once and a while and throw 90 pitches on a good day, because I think putting him in the bullpen or making him a half starter diminishes his value. He just won't be able to throw as many innings.
Prince: This bores me. Is anyone up for a game of basketball?
To add to that
It makes more sense to just make Harden a 5th starter that goes every other week. That extra time will allow him to at least manage the shoulder pain more effectively. Making him a half starter wouldn't fix the problem because this is a time issue, not a pitch count or innings pitched issue.
Prince: This bores me. Is anyone up for a game of basketball?
Not all reps are equal.
I don't know how often you lift weights, but the second set of reps is much harder than the first. There's a reason the smarter teams use pitch counts, and that's every pitch adds more stress than the one before. Give him half a workload and he won't be nearly as sore the next day, and he'll certainly be much less sore 5 days later. The only time I've ever been sore 5 days after a workout is when my friends got me to do more reps than I should've.
This isn't weightlifting
We're talking about shoulder stiffness and soreness. I've lifted a lot of weights and thrown a lot of baseballs and they really aren't similar due to the fact that you are doing way, way more reps in baseball with small weight. If you are injured, it's much more difficult to even do a few reps one day and be okay the next, would you agree? Most of this has to do with proper warm up and joint lubrication, but it's a fact that when you are dealing with tendonitis, throwing every day for a little bit is much more difficult than throwing every other day for more reps.
Regardless of how much you throw, you will be sore the next day. And the soreness will be roughly the same either way if Harden really is dealing with shoulder issues, which as PaulThomas suggested and I agree with, he is. When it comes to dealing with pain and throwing, the only way to make it go away is to give a certain amount of time to rest, not necessarily limiting the workload. Even on pitching days, Harden will be throwing close to 90 pitches including warmup from a mound, so you are not limiting his workload much at all anyway. The key here is the number of days of rest that Harden needs to take.
Prince: This bores me. Is anyone up for a game of basketball?
I'm sure you'll agree that
The more pitches you throw, the longer it takes to recover. That is why starters pitch every five days while guys in the bullpen frequently have to pitch two days in a row. If that's the case, it follows that if a starter threw fewer pitches, he would need less time to recover, which means he'll be more likely to be fully healthy and ready when his next start comes around.
Now if you can show there is no correlation between how many pitches you throw and how long it takes to recover, well then you can truly revolutionize things. Just think what we could do with you in charge.
Remember, no one cares about being sore the next day. The question is how sore he will be 5 days later. Getting the pitch count down will make him less likely to still be slightly sore during his next start.
Bambi, if you are injured
and you try to force yourself through a workout in the gym, there's a good chance that you'll injure yourself further, yes?
Also, the 2nd set of lifting weights is not always harder. It depends on the intensity and the volume used.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
When I lift
I always do the same volume on the second set. Every once in a while I only do one set, and you absolutely feel the difference two days later.
I learned the hard way not to lift when injured :-(
I disagree
There are certain thresholds that you reach where a longer recovery time is needed, but in between those thresholds, there is a lot of gray area. For instance, when I was pitching, I didn't notice any difference in how tired my arm felt whether I threw 60 pitches or 90 pitches. I bet most major league pitchers could tell you the same thing. It was still a significant workload that required rest for a few days, and recovery time will be the same. The thing is, with the assumption that Harden is injured, ANY amount of throwing will "re-injure" the shoulder and start the inflammation again, which would make recovery time about the same whether he threw 30 pitches, 70 pitches, or 100 pitches in his last outing. So limiting his pitch count doesn't fix the issue.
Prince: This bores me. Is anyone up for a game of basketball?
Err,
"but it's a fact that when you are dealing with tendonitis, throwing every day for a little bit is much more difficult than throwing every other day for more reps."
Fact? Doing a little work regularly, tends to encourage blood flow to the muscles and ligaments worked, thus speeding up healing. The best way to deal with tendinitis, is often not to just do nothing.
"When it comes to dealing with pain and throwing, the only way to make it go away is to give a certain amount of time to rest, not necessarily limiting the workload. Even on pitching days, Harden will be throwing close to 90 pitches including warmup from a mound, so you are not limiting his workload much at all anyway. The key here is the number of days of rest that Harden needs to take."
Leo Mazzone is known for getting his pitchers to throw much more regularly than "normal". Doing a limited workload, limited in both intensity and volume that is, is often used by many athletes in other sports, to speed up recovery, instead of just doing nothing.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
This is assuming all the work is pain free; that's the distinction I'm making
There's a difference between the work you are talking about and dealing with pain. Pain requires rest; rehabbing with pain does absolutely no good and just tends to aggravate the inflammation already present. I'm making all these assumptions as I said earlier on the basis that I think Harden probably already has a screwed up shoulder and deals with significant pain regularly.
The work you are referring to is the type of maintenance throwing and light weight lifting that helps break down scar tissue and keep blood flowing to the arm after a rigorous activity (i.e. a normal start). This works as long as the pitcher is not experiencing discomfort or tightness. In those cases, shutting down activity is the proper response.
Prince: This bores me. Is anyone up for a game of basketball?
The issue is what kind of "pain"
is being experienced and how bad the pain it is.
The issue is also, whether the injury and pain is known.
"There's a difference between the work you are talking about and dealing with pain. Pain requires rest; rehabbing with pain does absolutely no good and just tends to aggravate the inflammation already present. "
Nowadays, most surgeons have their patients rehabbing as soon as possible. This is even more so for athletes who've had surgery. The longer you go on a complete rest, the more muscle atrophy you'll experience. And the more likely you'll have trouble with mechanics.
"I'm making all these assumptions as I said earlier on the basis that I think Harden probably already has a screwed up shoulder and deals with significant pain regularly."
Here's the thing, if Harden already is dealing with significant pain regularly, before the recent subscapularis strain, then someone FARKED up. EIther Harden or the A's. Either Harden pulled a Dan Meyer, or the A's are hopelessly incompetent.
"The work you are referring to is the type of maintenance throwing and light weight lifting that helps break down scar tissue and keep blood flowing to the arm after a rigorous activity (i.e. a normal start). This works as long as the pitcher is not experiencing discomfort or tightness. In those cases, shutting down activity is the proper response."
Some discomfort or tightness is often present after strenuous activity. This is true for any athlete in any sport. The reason you do light(er) training is BECAUSE of the discomfort and tightness.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
I don't know what kind of doctor you see
But you are not supposed to rehab with significant pain and inflammation. No sane doctor would recommend rehab in that case. The extra inflammation hinders the healing process and can actually cause more problems than doing nothing at all. Most surgeons have their patients rehab as soon as they are pain free. With the non-invasive procedures that are present today, there is a higher likelihood that patients can rehab sooner because there will be less swelling and tightness, not because they have reinvented the way rehab is done.
Notice how I mentioned significant pain. Minor discomfort or tightness is completely different and doesn't compare to the magnitude of what is meant by having pain. Pain is where discomfort is significant enough to limit activity.
All pitchers at the major league level experience discomfort and tightness regularly. They have been pitching for years off mounds that cause the breakdown of soft tissue in the shoulder and elbow, and the overhand motion is an unnatural motion. By the time most pitchers reach the major league level, they are already damaged goods. Pain thresholds for pitchers are different; someone may choose to throw with pain because they are frustrated with being hurt all the time or want to make sure they establish themselves before they seek treatment. I think the former is the case for Rich Harden. And if someone has a high enough pain threshold and tolerance, the medical staff will have no way of knowing how healthy he is exactly. Harden is not throwing now because there is absolutely no way he can throw, and I think we're reaching a point where he's going to either be under the knife within the next year or so or he will continue to go through this pattern of starting a few games and then shutting it down.
Prince: This bores me. Is anyone up for a game of basketball?
You are basically saying that Harden
was pulling a Dan Meyer and lying at the start of the season.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
By that logic, they should throw about 250 pitches every day.
That way, when they only have to throw 100 in a game, it's a cakewalk.
I seem to remember
Tony LaRussa trying something similar for like a week in 1993. The 3 worst starters started each game and went 3 innings, then the 3 best starters pitchers innings 4-6, then the bullpen took over. If you go look at stats from that year, you'll notice Witt, Welch, and Darling each pitched 2 games in relief. So you had pitchers working every 3rd day instead of every 5th day, but pitching only 3 innings. It worked about as well as you'd expect.
This has HarShire working every 5 days.
To get a 4-5 inning workload every 5 days is a very sweet deal. If they still cant make it they're worthless.
I remember that
I remember that pretty well. I have been looking for an article online talking about that experiment by LaRussa. Do you know of such an article?
"First Zito and now DJ? The Giants are like A's landfil." - a paraphrase of Since72.
by Athletics fan and runner on Apr 13, 2008 4:26 PM PDT up reply actions
Nope,
I'd be interested in reading an article, also. It's just one of those vague memories that has always stuck around with me, because it was so odd.
Nothing Wrong With Duke
Harden's gonna miss pretty much the whole season, that much is as clear as ever. But Duke ... I think he's gonna deliver this year.
My Krystal Hamburgers ball says
Duke gets off the DL pretty soon, makes 6 more starts, on the DL for 25 days, then makes the rest of his starts without injury.
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