Has Jack Cust lost his swing?
by greenmachine on Apr 11, 2008 7:33 AM PDT
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PrintI like Jack Cust- he looks like a smaller version of Babe Ruth- and he always seems to be having fun when he's playing. However, does it seem that he's lost his ability to hit Major League pitching, or is it just that he was one helluva fluke last year? He seemed to hit fairly decent in spring- if you call .244 and 3 hr decent- but in the games I've seen him in this year, he has looked absolutely mis-matched. I kept wondering in the Toronto series why Geren was keeping him in the game- certainly not for his outfield abilities. Any thoughts on this?
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the pitchers have adjusted to him
he has to make the adjustment to them now, in order to stick at the major league level.
It's still early, but....
I think he has a huge hole in his swing. He's looked awful against lefties to start the season. I've been on the record before stating that it is no fluke that he spent 10 years in the minors, it's quite possible the rest of the league has figured out how to pitch Cust. His K rate is ridiculous right now. I know a lot of you are fine with his K's as long as he is walking and hitting HR's, but at this rate he will obliterate every single season K record. Maybe he's feeling the pressure of being an MLB regular; hopefully I'm wrong, because right now he is hurting the team as a middle of the order run producer. Maybe the A's could drop him in the order until he gets it going
"just a beating heart ... plasma that we'll put into our uniform." - Billy Beane
by athleticsBB4life on Apr 11, 2008 7:52 AM PDT reply actions
It's possible
On the other hand, Cust has played like 1000 games in his career, and this season so far he's played 10. So I'm thinking "no" is more probable.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
If your going to say Cust sucks after 10 games
What about Hannahan and Barton? Its not like the corner infielders on this team look exactly comfortable at the plate. Im not saying Cust will have a great year but you have to give a little more time then 10 games.
by asfaninpismobeach on Apr 11, 2008 8:23 AM PDT reply actions
especially hannahan
how come people pick apart cust, but no one says anything when hannahan swings through another 2-0 fastball right down the effing middle? that bugs me to no end. haters need to hate equally.
President of the Joey Devine fan club as of 1/15/08. Accepting applications for other positions. "He has no equivalent." -Paul DePodesta on Jeremy Brown
they do. particularly more recently in game threads.
In search of a new signature. Say something funny and you may see your comment here!
yeah but it's usually me roasting
President of the Joey Devine fan club as of 1/15/08. Accepting applications for other positions. "He has no equivalent." -Paul DePodesta on Jeremy Brown
Why not say Cust sucks after 10 bad games,
when everyone was declaring him God after fewer than 10 good games last year?
Mind you, even I'm not saying he SUCKS. Even on defense -- he's still too freakin' slow, but at least he doesn't make as much of a scary adventure out of the balls that he does get to. Just saying that the higher the pedestal you put a player on, the harder the fall if he stumbles (which is why no one is picking Hannahan apart for the same crappy ABs -- no one put him on a huge pedestal-o-hype first).
"Huston, you're hot!'' said first baseman Dan Johnson, dressed as a bottle of mustard.
Perhaps because the people who are currently saying "Cust doesn't suck"
understand small sample size and regression to the mean, and thus weren't the ones saying he was God last year to begin with?
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
So what you're saying
is that those who thought he was god have lost their faith.
In search of a new signature. Say something funny and you may see your comment here!
You tryin' to say Jesus Christ can't hit a curveball?
(see directly below)
MLBlackout.wordpress.com - Help put an end to MLB.tv blackouts
because...
because hannahan is a.) 24 years old and b.) a stopgap until Chavez returns. Cust is a guy who seems to have been pimped by Peter Gammons for decades who just never really learned to hit lefties or a breaking pitch and has no defensive position (He's UGLY in LF). Hannahan is at least playing slick defense at a critical infield spot. Cust is playing LF and DH, two positions whose real job and real job only is to hit. Cust's track record are reason for alarm, especially with the plentiful supply of reasonable replacements, and in my opinion one great one (Bonds).
Hannahan is 28
He's nobody's idea of a prospect.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
oops
bad mistake. but either way, the point is Cust is expected to produce, and Hannahan is not, which is why people panic/grumble about Cust, and give Hannahan a pass at sucking with the bat.
So what about Barton then?
Barton is batting .238 with 16 strikeouts in 42 at bats. Lets be fair, everyone on this board would be hammering Johnson right now if if he were striking out 40% of the time.
by asfaninpismobeach on Apr 12, 2008 1:17 PM PDT up reply actions
seriously?
Barton is a 22-year-old rookie with a .365 OBP. I'm not worried about April strikeouts in his case, and his OBP is fine. The hits will come for him. Cust on the other hand has a long and succesful minor league track record, but an equally long record of not being able to crack a major league lineup (in the fastball happy NL).
My other knock on Cust is that he is very good vs. bad pitching and very very bad vs good pitching. There are plenty of bad pitchers for him to punish and have nice looking stats, but in a playoff series vs. good pitching he is virtually helpless to do anything but strike out or walk. At this point in Bonds' career, good pitchers even have his number, but I don't get the feeling he's as helpless as Cust.
Feel free to demonstrate that last paragraph
with some actual facts, because it doesn't square at all with my recollections.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Papi Ortiz
had a long record of not being able to hold down a starter's job. Matt Stairs had long record of not being able to crack a major league lineup. Geronimo Berroa had long record of not being able to crack a major league lineup.
Teams make mistakes. They make mistakes on guys like Cust, 1b / DH types with little to no D value.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
Perhaps Jobu just needs a refill
Did anyone check to see if Foulke stole the shot out of the glass before the season started?
"Camelot sure fell apart, didn't it?"-Steve McCatty
Maybe he just needs to sacrifice a chicken.
"God doesn't pay attention to your cute little hypotheticals." -- Jeff from LL
Jack Cust eats fastballs for lunch
This is one of the best articles I've ever seen at Hardball Times.
It uses pitch F/X data, great writing, and analysis to tell us what types of pitches Jack Cust hits well, and where he's vulnerable.
It's also pretty scary for an A's fan - if guys on the Internet are writing this, every team Jack Cust faces obviously knows the same information (except for the Giants - they don't use computers).
Please do read that article if you get a spare five minutes. It convinced me that Cust is going to have a hard time replicating last year's success, which is saying something, because I'm the biggest Jack Cust believer there is.
"I still say put Jack Cust on some roller skates, arm him with a squeeze tube of epoxy, and let him loose in CF...righteous!" -MRod
by notsellingjeans on Apr 11, 2008 9:20 AM PDT reply actions
Incredible Article
This guy must have did his Master's Thesis on Jack Cust- I've never seen such a detailed breakdown on one batter's strength's and weaknesses and I wonder if Geren has bothered to read this.
The greenmachine
by greenmachine on Apr 11, 2008 9:45 AM PDT up reply actions
Every team should have breakdowns like this one on every hitter by now
If they don't, they're being flat-out negligent. It's basic Sun Tzu-- "know your enemy and yourself" has been an axiom for 2500 years.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
you know, abacuses are how we got Enron
And what did we do once we discovered a rift in the fourth dimension? We launched a monkey into it. @('.')@
Should Should Should
But I have no doubt that at least a third of the teams in baseball don't utilize this information. They'd much rather rely solely on the word of advance scouts (who are useful, of course).
http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/
by thejd44 on Apr 11, 2008 11:11 AM PDT up reply actions
Thanks for the compliments.
As far as I know, there aren't very many people doing this type of analysis with the PITCHf/x data, and I only know of one or two doing it for major league clubs. Hopefully in another year or two it will be more commonplace, but right now it's pretty unusual.
If I had more time, I'd do a lot more of these, but it took about a month of my spare time to research and write the article on Cust. I've been a fan of his for a while, so it was fun to learn more about him.
I haven't had a chance to check yet how the opposition is getting him out this year. Maybe when we're a little farther into the season it will be more meaningful anyway.
To quote a profound philospher, he is who we thought he was
Cust is a streaky hitter, who crushes pitchers mistakes. He will get hot, hit some home runs, walk and strikeout.
I repeat myself
because it amuses me...
Cust-turd. Hot then cold, just like a turd.
BTW, I love the guy... but that doesn't mean I'm not realistic. Last year I was saying "leather is Cust's kryptonite" but his D has improved this year. Then again, there was plenty of room for improvement.
The great thing about baseball is that there's a crisis every day. ~Gabe Paul
Q&A: What's up with Jack Cust?
Through 10 games, Jack Cust is playing like crap.
Why?
Well bad luck could easily be the answer ....
Okay, how?
Much better.
Thanks, care to answer?
Sure. He's not hitting enough line drives, he's hitting ground balls instead. While he is hitting fly balls not as many are leaving the park and he's getting unlikely with a ridiculously low .118 BABIP.
Should we expect this to change?
Yes and Maybe.
His .118 BABIP is going to increase, even if nothing else changes. Based on his career numbers and the changes in BIP distribution, his BABIP should be about .100 points higher.
His HR/FB rate is well below his career numbers and will probably bounce back.
His LD and GB percentages? Well those are numbers where real changes could exist. But then, we're talking about 10 ground balls and 2 line drives, whereas, based on career numbers, you'd expected 8 and 4.
So warnings about small sample size should apply?
You think?
So should I be worried?
Not really -- if he keeps up what he's been doing, some of those GBs will find holes and more of those flies will be the big variety. I'd expect, based on maintaining his present BIP numbers, him to improve to .200/.370/.467. If he improves is LD rate, he could be a good deal better.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
Mind boggling
to think that he could have an 820 OPS with a .200 batting average.
That is some serious IsoOBP/SLG.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
He has three hits -- two of them for extra bases. Pretty silly ...
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
y'all act like ya never seen a .100 hitter before
jaws all on the floor like mario mendoza just burst through the door.
"Camelot sure fell apart, didn't it?"-Steve McCatty
goodness
President of the Joey Devine fan club as of 1/15/08. Accepting applications for other positions. "He has no equivalent." -Paul DePodesta on Jeremy Brown
I think it makes more sense at this point to just go with whatever
preseason projection you had, maybe adjusted a tic down, that to try to parse 8 games worth of balls in play data.
The A's colors are green and gold.
You're absolutely right ...
It's too early to even adjust it a tic down.
I was just trying to show, by breaking down the data, how small of differences we're really talking about.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
Question...
Do they throw breaking pitches during batting practice beyond the Keith Foulke-esque fastball? Or is it the case that the only exposure players get to off-speed stuff is during the game?
I am Ray Fosse's man crushes for Clay Wood and Jason Kendall.
that's why they call them
"BP fastballs"...i have never in my 15 years of playing baseball seen a curveball in batting practice
President of the Joey Devine fan club as of 1/15/08. Accepting applications for other positions. "He has no equivalent." -Paul DePodesta on Jeremy Brown
So,
is Travis Buck a concern still? Or has it been decided that the league has not figured Buck out, after all?
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
depends on what he does today
if he gets hits, he's not a concern.
if he doesn't, he is.
President of the Joey Devine fan club as of 1/15/08. Accepting applications for other positions. "He has no equivalent." -Paul DePodesta on Jeremy Brown
depends on
what country he's playing in.
The great thing about baseball is that there's a crisis every day. ~Gabe Paul
Small sample size
I'm getting tired of this phrase ... if you hit .100 for 10 games? That sucks. It sucks bad. And you need to be told it sucks. Do better. Period. I don't want to hear about how things even themselves out. Not necessarily. This could mean you'll hit .100 for the season. It may not, but who knows? What you did last year has nothing to do with this year. When you go on a 15 game hitting streak with 7 bombs, then I'll say "That's good! Keep doin' that!" But as long as you're hitting .100, I'm going to say, "That's bad! Do better!"
VacaAsFan
a million thank you's
I'm not saying Cust is going to suck forever, even though he might. But he sucks now.
I'm here to talk about the past.
Why do the two have to be in conflict?
There was an excellent analysis above that points out both how Jack Cust has been playing like crap and how there is not a lot of reason to be concerned about the future.
Retrospectively, Jack Cust has been playing like crap. Yep, we can all agree on that.
This diary, however, clearly wanted to deal with more than retrospective observations -- it was asking about the future, should we be concerned. At that point, when we're speaking prospectively, the 30 ABs Jack Cust has amassed this season do not tell us much of anything about what we should expect out of the next 600.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
that's good, devo
Do worse!
And what did we do once we discovered a rift in the fourth dimension? We launched a monkey into it. @('.')@
Yeah, that was way too standoffish and intellectual
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
That was actually a crack at someone else's expense
but I forget whose.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Don't worry
his posts will regress to the mean.
There is an A in Whimsy.
by FreeSeatUpgrade on Apr 11, 2008 5:28 PM PDT up reply actions
I don't disagree
at all.
I agree with the analysis. I agree that it is excellent. I agree that Cust is playing like crap and that most everyone else agrees with what I agree with. I agree that 30 at bats tell us nothing, except for 30 at bats worth. There may be something to worry about, there may be not. But regardless, it won't be the doing of these 30 at bats. Agreed.
Maybe I get swallowed up by the analysis and I just want to give an uneducated opinion once in a while. There are worse things, no?
I'm here to talk about the past.
I wasn't taking issue with your response ...
you weren't complaining about the phrase "small sample size"
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
You're almost there ....
Hang with us, buddy ...
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
Oh, is it my turn?
Sorry if it sounded like I was complaining....:-) No, I agree -- the two don't have to be "in conflict." (Whatever that means.) Just sayin' ... when a guy isn't doing well, then let people say that, and spare me the statistical analysis, that's all. (I should say, I prefer to be spared the statistical analysis, how's that?)
VacaAsFan
Well then maybe you should try to steer clear of diaries which ask the question
of whether or not we should express this performance to continue and not criticize people who are actually addressing the topic of the diary. This wasn't a vent diary -- it asked a question.
A reasonable answer to that question is, 'it's too soon to tell, the sample is too small.'
An unreasonable answer to that question is, 'Jack Cust has sucked for 30 ABs.'
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
So maybe a better question would be
At what point do we start worrying?
One question that you may or may not have addressed (hard to tell, but that's me, not you) is whether or not last year was a fluke? Or is that in itself a small size sample?
The other thing that got me- and please I am so not being critical, just asking for clarification- was an answer to your own question as "yes and maybe", and then your last question about worrying, where you advise us not to worry, but you threw in a couple of "if's" in there. What are the chances of those "if's" not happening?
I'm here to talk about the past.
UGH, Damn AN 3.0 GUI. I freaking hate AN 3.0
Cust has a long and successful minor league career. His minor league numbers, translated into major league equivalencies, all indicate that he belongs in MLB.
No, he is not as good as last year. Last year was very likely a career year. But he does belong in MLB, and something along the lines of an 800-820 OPS in Oakland's park, is IMO a reasonable expectation.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
A couple weeks ago, IIRC Grover
posted on diary on Major League Equivalencies (MLEs). That was a fantastic article, that every baseball fan, should read.
One thing a lot of baseball fans are unaware of, is that past minor league numbers have a strong predictive value, almost as good as past MLB numbers.
This is from Dan Szymborkski's, the inventor of the ZiPs projection system, on how to calculate MLEs:
The normal season-to-season fluctuation in batting average at the major league level is 25 points. I figured the season-to-season changes for every major league player who has had five years or more of 300 at bats, and the average annual change in batting average was between .024 and .025 [...]
[...] If the minor league equivalencies (mostly of 1983 seasons) that I printed last spring were exactly as accurate as an indicator of future hitting, the average differences between those rojections and what the players actually hit would be exactly the same---.025.
This is a victory statement. Thirty of those player batted 250 times. It is my pleasure to announce at the time that 29 of the players produced 1984 seasons which were substantially consistent with the major league translation of their minor league data, which were published last spring. The one player who got completely out of the range of expectations which should have been generated by his minor league batting statistics was Doug Frobel of Pittsburgh, who batted 276 times, and missed matching the translation of his minor league statistics by 20 hits (79 points).
The average difference between the translation of the minor league data and the actual major league performance was 25 points -- exactly the same as the normal season-to-season fluctuation in a player's batting average between two major league seasons. I think that as you compare the seasons below [clipped, but available on request-DS], it will be very obvious to you that minor league equivalencies and the major league records do, in fact, match up to exactly the same extent that two major league records could be expected to do so.
[Bill James 1985 Abstract p.10]
Note that this has been tested for batting average, slugging percentage, and on-base percentage over the last few years and the methods still work as well as they did in the early 1980s.
Once you properly account for park and league, as some of the minor league parks are either extreme hitter's / pitcher's parks, minor league data is almost as good as major league data for evaluating past performance.
Cust has a long and successful minor league career.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
Cust has a very unique hitting approach
There is a very very large difference in minor league pitching and major league pitching, which is major leaguers are FAR better than minor leaguers at throwing breaking pitches for strikes as well as hang far fewer breaking pitches. Cust's unique approach of taking every breaking pitch and hammering mistake fastballs and hanging breakers for homeruns, might not translate into major league success as well, because he can't get the same hitters counts he was getting in the minors, and he won't be challenged by fastballs as much as major leaguers are confident in throwing their breaking pitches for strikes.
If I didn't think the A's could contend, I would just let him hit all season of course, but I think they can, and therefore he should have somewhat of a short leash.
It's not that unique ...
that's what most top power hitters do ....
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
not to his extreme
I meant unique to his extreme. The best hitters in the league tend to strike out frequently too, but not at his rate. I think his extremely high strikeout rate as a function of his not having a chance vs some pitchers and total lack of ability to hit a breaking ball...other great hitters can stay alive by fouling them off or poking singles--He just whiffs or looks at strike 3.
That's why Cust isn't a great hitter ...
but it shouldn't stop him from being simply good.
Good is good.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
Ryan Howard.
Not a great hitter.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
One question
do you believe in the validity of MLEs? If not, why?
You say "There is a very very large difference in minor league pitching and major league pitching, which is major leaguers are FAR better than minor leaguers at throwing breaking pitches for strikes as well as hang far fewer breaking pitches"
Many of these major leaguers were minor leaguers, once upon a time too.
"Cust's unique approach of taking every breaking pitch and hammering mistake fastballs and hanging breakers for homeruns, might not translate into major league success as well, because he can't get the same hitters counts he was getting in the minors, and he won't be challenged by fastballs as much as major leaguers are confident in throwing their breaking pitches for strikes."
Define "success. MLB pitchers might have better command and control, but they're not perfect.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
To be fair ...
MLEs would be the kind of thing that could potentially lose significant value for a particularly unique player.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
Yeah that's what I've been trying to get at
I'm generally a huge fan of MLEs, and a huge detractor of people who fight statistics with gut feelings. I just feel that Cust's extremeness might warrant a little closer look.
Another thing...
And this is gonna run sort of counter to my knocking Jack Cust, is that I sort of feel like he belongs leading off. One of my biggest knocks on Cust isn't that I doubt that he can really maintain a high OBP and a high SLG, it's that he suffers greatly in a lineup without protection. People can go at him with breaking balls and/or pitch around him without fear of the batter behind him. In a lineup like the A's, he could be interesting leading off or batting second behind Buck.
He starts looking a lot more attractive to me when he's out of the middle of the lineup.
One potential outcome for Cust would be that he maintains his OBP
but cannot maintain his power -- or, at least, cannot make enough contact to make his power matter. If that were to happen, he could be a smart choice to bat lead off/second.
If the power he showed last year, though, is real, he definitely belongs in the middle of the lineup.
Give him some time ... we'll see what happens.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
Last year was a fairly small sample size ...
It's entirely possible that it could have been a fluke. You may recall a recent Staturday in which Jack Cust's uniqueness was discussed. Jack Cust needs to maintain a very high level of uniqueness to maintain his productivity. There's definitely a very real possibility that he's not that unique -- that last year was a fluke.
Of course some players, Ichiro Suzuki comes to mind, are incredibly and reliably unique so it's also possible that last year was not a fluke.
Jack Cust's career is a study of small sample sizes so there's definitely a wide range of possibilities in Jack Cust's future. How likely each is, I don't really know.
As far as what point we start worrying, combine this with this. The exact point depends on how bad he continues to play (assuming he continues to play badly). If he still has a sub .600 OPS after 100 PAs (not having actually run any numbers, purely eyeballing it) it may be appropriate to start to worry a small amount (but only a small amount).
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
Thanks devo and rfloh
To be perfectly honest, I don't pay too much attention to the minor league clubs, which I am certain was quite obvious even before I typed that.
Believe it or not, for someone who has written one too many historical pieces here, I tend to live for the moment, or in AN's words, for the small sample size. Did we win today? Yeah! Did we lose? Shit. But it doesn't mean I am so closed minded that I am unwilling to expand my horizons and actually learn a thing or two. That's why I wanted to be clear that I wasn't being critical.
It's true, I haven't read every analytical post, just as the majority of AN steers clear of mine (not a complaint, just being factual). Frankly I don't always have the time to read (or grasp) such posts in one sitting (you may or may not notice that a lot of my comments on game threads are from my office, regardless of the hour). So if I ask a lot of questions that have been already answered it's because I can't always make it to class.
Call it ironic, but I guess you can say that my learning of small sample sizes needs to come in small sample sizes. I guess I just need a tutor, so thanks for taking the time to break it down. Be not frustrated with the student who has not yet learned, be thankful that the student is willing to learn.
And if any of this sounds too weird, well, it's 4'oclock in the flippin' morning and I can't sleep.
I'm here to talk about the past.
Heh, I'm just doing for you what others
have done for me.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
We all live in the moment ... it's all about the games ....
once they're over, though, I just don't find them that interesting to talk about for more than a couple of minutes, hence this stuff ...
Ask away, we'll win you over, yet ; )
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
Devo ...
why are you pissed? I never meant to "criticize people" in my post ... it wasn't directed at any one individual .... I was just throwin' my 2 cents out and stirrin' the pot a little bit. I swear, some of you guys are waaaaaayyyyy too sensitive. I was never trying to irritate you ... I even left Eric Chavez out of it. :-) C'mon man, I expect the whiney replies from some of our younger fans ... not from you. Lighten up.
VacaAsFan
It was late Friday afternoon and I was still sober ...
you'll have to forgive me ...
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
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