The Hardin and the un-Hardin
by alamedaman on Apr 11, 2008 1:19 AM PDT
33 comments
All of us know we can't count on Hardin. On the one hand, when he pitches, the guy is unbelievable. If he ever had 30 starts in a season, he would finish with a win/loss of 20-5, an ERA of 2.5, and the Cy Young. But what breaks our hearts, is that is never going to happen--never. What is going to happen is that he is going to get somewhere between 3 and 10 starts--and probably the same W/L ratio, and the same ERA, and of course no Cy Young. I would propose that we can count on him for 5 starts, with 3 wins and 1 loss.
Since a # 2 or 3 starter, whatever, gets 36 starts a season, and Hardin gets 5 of those starts, that means the un-Hardin gets 31 starts. The un-Hardin will have an ERA of something like 6.5, and in those 31 starts will go 7-14, with 10 no decisions--at best. Unfortunately he will be death on the bullpen, but it's hard to capture that in the stats. But his average start will be about four innings, meaning that in 31 games the bullpen will have to pitch 5 innings--ugly!
So the combined Hardin/un-Hardin will have a W/L of 10-15. He will have an ERA of 6.0. So for the 5th starter, it's not too bad.
But the Hardin/un-Hardin is a not too bad 5th starter. We don't have a Hardin #2, or whatever, starter. We have an average 5th starter, who is composed of a great #2 starter combined with a #6 and #7 starter.
It's just the way it is with Hardin. Accept the reality.
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Bist. Fanpost. Ivir.
Will doni sir.
"The Mind is a Terrible Thing to Taste" -Al Jourgensen
by easyrichboy on Apr 11, 2008 1:31 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
it sounds australian
Signatures? We don't need no stinking signatures.
by jubjub on Apr 11, 2008 1:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Harden.
Rich Harden. With an 'E'.
As far as your analysis goes -- do you know when the last time an A's starter put up an ERA of 5.00 or higher over 20 or more starts?
It was in 2000, Mark Mulder had a rough rookie season. Ever since then, every single starter has had a sub 5.00 era. I think it's safe to say, Billy Beane will find a starter for the other starts with a sub 6.50 era. Which is a good thing, because a 6.00 era, from any starter, would be terrible.
Also, a typical 2-3 starter gets more like 32-33 starts.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on Apr 11, 2008 1:57 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
i'm reminded of the 20 diaries compaining about billy bean back in early 2005...
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05
by xbhaskarx on Apr 11, 2008 2:04 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I know ... the site was so intolerant ...
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on Apr 11, 2008 2:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Your 2008 AN
Where imperfections (Hardin?) are hardly embraced
And Embree is hardly perfect
I'm here to talk about the past.
by 67MARQUEZ on Apr 11, 2008 4:32 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Imbrii?
And all the spellirs are above avirage.
The meaning of life is not so much 'found,' as it is 'made.' --Opus
by The Dogfather on Apr 11, 2008 7:55 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Need a refill on your
Haterade pal?
"I hurt people I'm a dick" Garry TA
by Crapper Jon on Apr 11, 2008 4:26 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
no. need a first time fill up on your IQ, "buddy"?
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05
by xbhaskarx on Apr 11, 2008 10:20 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
A 6.0 ERA in Oakland's park
would not be a tolerable 5th starter.
League average 5th starters typically will have an ERA slightly over 5 in the A's park, ie somewhere between Duke and Calero in 2007
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on Apr 11, 2008 4:10 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
WOW,
I hate to say it but Macha was 100% right when he said Harden was a non-entity. While you never want a player to risk serious, Harden needs to be made a reliever (closer type). The bottom line for him is he needs to figure out why he keeps getting hurt and then correct it or he will have to find other employment.
Did he have these injury issues in the minors???
"I hurt people I'm a dick" Garry TA
by Crapper Jon on Apr 11, 2008 4:36 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
No ... he was healthy
2001 74-1/3 IP (SS)
2002 153 IP (A+, AA)
2003 176-1/3 IP (AA, AAA, MLB)
2004 194-2/3 IP (AAA, MLB)
2005 131 IP (AAA, MLB)
2006 48-2/3 IP (AAA, MLB)
2007 25-2/3 IP (AAA, MLB)
Remember that MiLB seasons are shorter and he was on more severe pitch counts -- that's why the IP total isn't what you might expect when he was in the minors.
As far as making him a reliever ... it might work ... but since neither he, nor, more importantly, teams of doctors, have any idea what's wrong with him, it's hard to know whether or not that would really help. Some injuries respond better to lighter workloads, others to more consistent, planned work.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on Apr 11, 2008 11:02 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I didn't know Cal's center
was pitching for the A's...
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Apr 11, 2008 8:00 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Haha...
Classic. Love "Accept the reality". So dramatic.
Bring back Hammer.
by OaktownPower on Apr 11, 2008 8:55 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I didn't even read this.
I saw "Hardin" twice in the subject line, skimmed the fAnPoSt and saw it multiple more times, and decided to go with "FAIL." Call it an irrelevant pet peeve, if you will (maybe I'm missing a brilliant analysis by not reading it). Misspell things like "Grudzielanek" or "Mientkiewicz" or "Saltalamacchia" -- complicated names on other teams -- but if you're going to take the time to write a post, at least get our own guys' names right. Especially the simple ones.
< /pelling marm>
"Huston, you're hot!'' said first baseman Dan Johnson, dressed as a bottle of mustard.
by Poppy on Apr 11, 2008 9:16 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
The meaning of life is not so much 'found,' as it is 'made.' --Opus
by The Dogfather on Apr 11, 2008 9:39 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have asked time and time again...
Please do not take and/or post photos/video of me.
"Huston, you're hot!'' said first baseman Dan Johnson, dressed as a bottle of mustard.
by Poppy on Apr 11, 2008 9:46 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
But you didn't do it once, politely.
And you have an avatar, you closet AW.
The meaning of life is not so much 'found,' as it is 'made.' --Opus
by The Dogfather on Apr 11, 2008 9:50 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
(maybe I'm missing a brilliant analysis by not reading it).
Umm, no.
"Evidently, a large number of people said, 'We really need more vermin at the ballpark, Artie.'" - Nick (AN), 10/7/07
by doctorK on Apr 11, 2008 12:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
H-A-N-A-H-A-N
Hanahan.
Hi this is Ken Griffey Jr. Let's play major league baseball.
by Rocktopus on Apr 11, 2008 11:05 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Umm no
H-A-N-R-A-H-A-N
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on Apr 11, 2008 1:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Quiet, Dale.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Apr 11, 2008 1:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
No one in this country
can ever pronounce my name right. It's not that hard: Samir Na-gheen-an-a-jar. Nagheenanajar
"Camelot sure fell apart, didn't it?"-Steve McCatty
by 5Aces on Apr 11, 2008 1:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Our attention spans are too short ...
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on Apr 11, 2008 1:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
What?
I'm here to talk about the past.
by 67MARQUEZ on Apr 11, 2008 1:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Look, a squirrel!
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on Apr 11, 2008 2:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
it's Hardon not Hardin
jeez. learned the players already lol!!!1111!1!111
"I hope he arouses the fire that's dormant in the innermost recesses of my soul." - Ichiro on Matsuzaka
by ConditionOakland on Apr 11, 2008 2:46 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Only in the Castro ... everywhere else, it's Harden ; )
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on Apr 11, 2008 2:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05
by xbhaskarx on Apr 11, 2008 3:01 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
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