Yahoo Sports Underrating the Young A's

by baseb3383 on Mar 28, 2008 5:32 PM PDT Comment 21 comments

Hey Guys and Gals-

I stumbled across this article on Yahoo Sports about 2008 Season Predictions. Get this, 2 of the 3 sportswriters on the site picked the A's to win LESS THAN 70 GAMES. Are they serious? Or am I blind in my fandom?

Y! experts peer into a crystal baseball

Wow.

I know we are a young team, but I think it would be a stretch to say that we would lose more than 90 games and finish in last in the division. We had terrible stretches of health last year and still managed to win 76 games. I realize we are sans Swisher and Haren, but Harden should be able to at least contribute more than last year, Carlos Gonzales can be added to the mix as a good replacement for Kotsay, and we have a better bullpen than last year. Add in a healthy and decent Bobby Crosby and a good season from Suzuki behind the dish and we're looking at around we were last year, if not better.

Is anyone else shocked by the fact people are picking us to lose so many games in a weak division?

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Comments

they're retarded

No way the A's win less than 70, with escobar out, i wouldn't be surprised now if the A's made a run for the division

"It's like déjà vu all over again." -yogi berra

by Cheezombie on Mar 28, 2008 9:38 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Yea I completly disagree

especially after watching them hold their own against Boston, these past 2 games. I think they are an 80+ team, and if everything breaks just right, maybe even a sleeper 88-91 win team, who sneaks into the playoff's due to the Angels completely falling apart from the inside out....

"I Will Not Relent, I Am Driven"... Clutch
Bring Back The Bash!!!

by Shippee33 on Mar 28, 2008 9:40 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

These guys...

...probably couldn't even name the A's starting rotation. They are also forgetting that the Mariners gave up 813 runs last year. Is Bedard really going to help them that much??

Juan Pierre: 44 Million Dollars, Juan Pierre's 3.2 WARP3: Priceless

by Travis Buck Nuckin on Mar 28, 2008 11:15 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

actually, I had a hard time naming the A's starting rotation...

just the other day. But, in answer to your question: No, Bedard is not going to help them that much. I picked them to finish right behind the Angels, in third place.

Go A's!

by FoolshGame22 on Mar 28, 2008 11:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes.

They replaced Ho (61 ERA+, 34 runs below average in 2007) and Weaver the Elder(70 ERA+, 24 runs below average in 2007) with Bedard(118 career ERA+, last 3 years 108, 121, 146; 8, 17, 27 runs above average last 3 years, a straight average of 17-18 runs above average per year) and Silva(102 ERA+, about average last 4 years).

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on Mar 28, 2008 11:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

but, isn't Bedard hurt?

he certainly has looked like it during spring training. Maybe he's just fine tuning it, like Zito.

Go A's!

by FoolshGame22 on Mar 29, 2008 12:00 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I've no idea if he is hurt

If he is indeed hurt, obviously he is not going to help (much).

My point merely was that if Bedard and Silva are "normal" and healthy, ie just reproducing what they have done in the past few seasons, they are huge improvements on Ho and Weaver. Ho and Weaver were big culprits of that 813 runs allowed.

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on Mar 29, 2008 12:56 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bedard is fine

He's just been playing with his cut fastball the whole time, no curves. Which is why he's been getting bombed.

by Graham on Mar 29, 2008 8:46 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

My point

was kinda that they already blew past their Pythagorean W-L last year. So Bedard/Silva will save them around 70 runs, so they'd be roughly 7 games better than last year. Their Pythagorean last year was 79 wins, and they won 88. So if you add Bedard/Silva to their 79 wins, you'd get 86 wins, meaning that their new skill will most likely not balance out their good luck from last year, and they'll be hard pressed to surpass last year's win total....I'm not sure if what I'm trying to say makes sense. ha.

Juan Pierre: 44 Million Dollars, Juan Pierre's 3.2 WARP3: Priceless

by Travis Buck Nuckin on Mar 29, 2008 12:55 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, I agree with you

What I'm saying is that they are a 77-79 win team who have drastically improved their pitching.

I am NOT saying that they are an 88 win team who have drastically improved their pitching.

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on Mar 29, 2008 12:57 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Gotcha

Exactly, if they were a legit 88 win team, and they added Bedard and Silva they would be scary-good.

Juan Pierre: 44 Million Dollars, Juan Pierre's 3.2 WARP3: Priceless

by Travis Buck Nuckin on Mar 29, 2008 12:58 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Which...

Which, I forgot to mention, is what the media things they will be: Scary-good.

Juan Pierre: 44 Million Dollars, Juan Pierre's 3.2 WARP3: Priceless

by Travis Buck Nuckin on Mar 29, 2008 12:59 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

At this point

if they really are an 86-win team once you factor in the offseason's moves, you'd have to figure they're the favorites to win the division.

I'm not really totally convinced that's the case though.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Mar 29, 2008 10:22 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

It depends on how you believe

their players will play relative to their career averages

For example, PECOTA basically is predicting a team-wide collapse. It is projecting that Ichiro goes cliff diving. It is projecting a collapse from Johjima. Ibanez, collapse. Vidro, suck. Collapses from Batista, Silva and Washburn It's even predicting a collapse from the 26 year old Yuniesky Betancourt. It also expects a decline from Felix.

The only 2 starters whom PECOTA projects not to decline are Lopez and Beltre.

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on Mar 29, 2008 11:40 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Is it really a non-AL West question?

With all the flux/Angel injuries/uncertainty in the AL West, all four teams could possibly play .500 ball against each other, don't you think? The A's and Rangers play a bit better, the Angels injury woes continue and Mariners PECOTA projections come to pass....

Then, doesn't it come down to how the AL West plays against the other divisions?

I still think the Angels could win the division by 10 games... unless they have a DL-fest with their pitching staff.

by MoragaMike on Mar 29, 2008 7:11 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I don't know if you're right

... but I agree with you completely. They're seriously underestimating the A's. From the way things have gone in spring training, and in the Japan opening series, what I see is a team that has good chemistry, plays hard, and is deep with talent. They have a lot of upside. I guess all the Yahoo pundits see is a bunch of unproven players. But what do I know. I'm just a fan.

"Next year might be an all-out zoo." -- Barry Zito

by TomB on Mar 30, 2008 3:41 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I love it when the A's are underestimated

by OaklandSi on Mar 30, 2008 4:12 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

ESPN show just had a fair prediction

that the A's would end up in third but would challenge for second throughout the season...that's actually kind of what I think will happen, injuries being equal...

by OaklandSi on Mar 30, 2008 4:56 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I'm a little more optimistic

I actually think we will finish in 2nd, ahead of the Mariners. Unless Lackey and Vlad are both out for extended periods though, I don't see us even being in the running for the division. That having been said, I expect the A's, Mariners, and Rangers to all finish below .500. It's going to be the worst division in baseball.

Prince: This bores me. Is anyone up for a game of basketball?

by baseb3383 on Mar 30, 2008 6:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs