Bring On The First Gonzalez
by Nico on Mar 27, 2008 4:16 PM PDT
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Certainly, service time is an issue. By calling Gonzalez up now, rather than waiting a couple of months, the A’s are trading "contract control in 2014" for "putting the CFer with the most upside on the field right now." I wonder if part of the reason the A’s are not concerned with this is that their long-range plan is to make "C-Gon" the team’s first true "franchise centerpiece" – the guy locked up with a long-term, and expensive, contract extension. If the A’s think Gonzalez will be their first "$150,000,000 man," as opposed to the six-year rental Barry Zito was before becoming someone else’s expensive player, then the "contract control issue is lessened considerably.
Why Now?
Two reasons come to mind for wanting Gonzalez to come up to the major leagues now. One is that if he is a raw but great talent, who will need time to convert his ability into productivity, the A’s want Gonzalez to get his "major league growing pains" out of the way in 2008 so he can be a true impact player in 2009 – when I think Beane has every intention of fielding a contender. The other reason is that the A’s could not have asked for a better confluence of events to turn 2008 from a rebuilding year into a contending year, what with Rich Harden feeling great and pitching great and the Angels’ rotation comprised of their #3-#7 starters for at least a month. You know that Chris Denorfia and Ryan Sweeney will give you good defense and probably not great hitting, while Gonzalez is more of a "wild card" – he could produce the stats of a rushed, raw hitter or he could produce the stats of a superbly talented phenom. If he were to be the latter, and the A’s added another real impact bat to the order, it becomes easier yet to see the 2008 A’s as contenders.
Center Field
The A’s must feel Gonzalez has what it takes to excel in CF in the major leagues – duh – but even if he has the potential to make it as a CFer, you have to wonder how wise it is to ask a 22 year old to learn a demanding defensive position before he has had time to refine his hitting maturity (there’s no doubt about his ability) at AAA – as scouts seem to agree would be prudent. This concerns me, but man oh man, if the A’s are right on this one … I’m liking the present, and I’m loving the future.
CarGon, take me away!
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I'm looking forward to seeing what he can do...
...but what's with the font?
"[Moneyball] is huge [in Japan], I guess, so I'm like a David Hasselhoff type or something..." -- Billy Beane
by FormerHuntsvilleStar on Mar 27, 2008 4:30 PM PDT reply actions
No clue -
Since AN 3.0 doesn't appear to allow me to change the font, I'm helpless to fix it. I typed it on an unfamiliar computer, was surprised at how it looked when published, searched and searched and just don't see any way to edit it. Any other front pagers are MORE than welcome to fix it if they know how.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I think I can fix it ...
Did you type it up in Word (or any other text editor) before entering it into AN? The html code is full of style and font tags.
As reassuring as Bud's words were, the dulcet tone of his voice and his dashing appearance really sealed the deal for me. ~ GreenNGoldSooner @('.')@
I typed it in Word on a PC (which I don't ever use)
If you can fix it, please do!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
done!
There was so much extraneous style code in there, I just copied the text from your published story and pasted it over the whole thing, then inserted line break and boldface codes.
As reassuring as Bud's words were, the dulcet tone of his voice and his dashing appearance really sealed the deal for me. ~ GreenNGoldSooner @('.')@
Thank you kindly
That other font made me think I was reading the Drudge Report for a second.
"Evidently, a large number of people said, 'We really need more vermin at the ballpark, Artie.'" - Nick (AN), 10/7/07
It's also unconfirmed
Nico should have used one of those hilarious drudge sirens.
The A's colors are green and gold.
clockwerks, get cracking on building us a siren widget
As reassuring as Bud's words were, the dulcet tone of his voice and his dashing appearance really sealed the deal for me. ~ GreenNGoldSooner @('.')@
BREAKING -- HISPANIC IMMIGRANT SET TO TAKE CONTROL OF CALIFORNIA CITY
As reassuring as Bud's words were, the dulcet tone of his voice and his dashing appearance really sealed the deal for me. ~ GreenNGoldSooner @('.')@
by monkeyball on Mar 27, 2008 5:06 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
forget about the font ... has the news actually been confirmed?
As reassuring as Bud's words were, the dulcet tone of his voice and his dashing appearance really sealed the deal for me. ~ GreenNGoldSooner @('.')@
Whoa
Formatting go crazy...
As much as I'd like to think that the "contract control" problem will not be one, every team that isn't the Yankees needs pre-free agency players to fill out large parts of its roster. They're the guys you can really obtain major positive value from.
I don't understand the decision to just give up what could be $15 million down the line just in order to rush a player to the majors who clearly needs continued skills improvement. This decision does not make the slightest bit of sense to me.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
maybe the A's intend to flip him?
Maybe Beane's already received inquiries from other teams about Marabino Patrol Craft, and he and his team think that he'll put up some initially splashy numbers but isn't necessarily going to develop the long-term skills the A's would want to see in a franchise player.
I know, that doesn't sound especially convincing, but it makes more sense than flushing a year of eligibility to have him play in the bigs for a .500 team (and a .500 team that has multiple cheap, low-ceiling options).
As reassuring as Bud's words were, the dulcet tone of his voice and his dashing appearance really sealed the deal for me. ~ GreenNGoldSooner @('.')@
If that's really the case,
then the team has thoroughly outsmarted itself and will end up getting hosed on the deal.
I suppose it's possible, but I would really rather that wasn't the case.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
I don't think it's the case
'Nuff said.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I absolutely love this decision.
Carlos Gonzalez will challenge Daric Barton for AL ROY honors. I have no doubt he will put up better numbers than Sweeney or Denorfia would have. Cream always rises. I think if a player can put up dominant numbers in AA, he can hit in the bigs as well.
I'm particularly pleased that they're not sending him down just to save some money seven years from now. They're already saving more than enough money this year; they can earmark it for his 2014 salary.
So it goes.
OK
What if a player puts up "good-but-clearly-equivalent-to-replacement-level-in-MLB" numbers in AA? (See grover's Staturday post from last week.)
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Depends on his ultimate development.
The A's did the same thing with Tejada and Chavez, and they turned out pretty well. Worst case, Gonzalez puts up the same numbers as Denorfia or Sweeney would have; best case, he does a lot better. In any case, he's doing his learning against the best competition possible.
i want him to be as young as possible when he signs his big contract with us, assuming we're in the financial position to do so then. Sort of like Miguel Cabrera when he got his big deal. That contract should end while he's still in his prime.
So it goes.
Um
Worst case, he puts up the same numbers as Denorfia or Sweeney would have?
You can't envision any possible scenario by which he's worse than either of those two players?
Give me a break. Denorfia's hit better than the MPC at higher levels, consistently. Gonzalez clearly has more long-term upside because he's so much younger, but that says nothing about his production THIS SEASON.
I'll give you Sweeney, who is also very young and has basically sucked in AAA for two seasons, but even he has at least attempted the level before.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Denorfia's been a lot older at all of those levels.
And he has an eighth of the talent Gonzalez does. Denorfia has a .740 major league OPS, and profiles as a fourth outfielder. Denofria OPSed .619 in A+ as a 22-year-old; Gonzalez OPSed .919 as a 20-year-old. Denorfia OPSed .733 as a 23-year-old in AA; Gonzalez put up .806 as a 21-year-old.
Denorfia's OPS ceiling in the bigs is pretty close to Gonzalez' floor.
So it goes.
OK
ZIPS projection: Denorfia .788 Gonzalez .734
James: Denorfia .786 Gonzalez .736
CHONE: Gonzalez .684
Marcel: Denorfia .780
Your last sentence is verifiably wrong unless past performance of similar players means nothing at all.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
thankfully, they're only ever wrong when we wish them to be so!
As reassuring as Bud's words were, the dulcet tone of his voice and his dashing appearance really sealed the deal for me. ~ GreenNGoldSooner @('.')@
Projections, proshmections.
If there's one thing I notice about predicting the future, it''s how frequently such predictions are wrong. Statistics are only one tool to use in deciding how to field a team. Care to bet Gonzalez will put up a .787 or better this year (the average of James and ZIPS' projections for Denorfia)?
Some players thrive when challenged, others don't. Some do what they're projected when they're supposed to, others don't. Carlos Pena leaps to mind. He went down the carefully crafted development path, and fell on his face when brought to the bigs. It was only years later as a minor-league non-roster invite to camp that he finally realized his potential.
My last sentence is pretty much proven by what you posted, insofar as it establishes Denorfia's ceiling given his age (although I think it's pretty generous that a guy who's missed an entire year due to surgery will improve his big-league OPS by 40 points). Gonzalez will probably be right around that number, because stats can only tell you so much about how fast elite talent can improve.
So it goes.
Don't overlook defense, though -
CF is a huge defensive position and by all accounts, Denorfia is a very solid CFer while Gonzalez would be learning on the job without either the track record/experience. If Gonzalez is exactly as good in CF as Swisher was, or as Buck would be, he will be a double-liability: He won't play a great CF and the A's really won't be able to play Cust in LF to get Mike Sweeney's bat in the lineup.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Cust v. Sweeney
I have a feeling Cust will have more to do w/ getting Mike Sweeney in the lineup.
by Colorado Fan on Mar 28, 2008 9:01 AM PDT up reply actions
I will happily bet that Gonzalez will not put up a .787 or better this year
because that strikes me as absurdly optimistic. And if I'm wrong, the A's are probably winning, which is worth it anyway.
Five bucks? Ten? Garlic fries at Gordon Biersch?
(BTW, those projections aren't Denorfia's "ceiling." They're his average predicted performance. There's a huge difference.)
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Have to agree with PaulThomas here
Overall, I like the A's playing aggressive in the present especially if they are doing so factoring in more spending potential in the near future, which I assume is this case to some degree.
However, Denorfia could be a stud, given not a potential all-star like CarGon, but nonetheless we should give him a chance, at least for a month and see what CarGon can do in AAA first.
Ten bucks it is.
Or one of those big Coronas they sell at the Coliseum, whichever is less.
So it goes.
IMO, one point you are missing
is that Denorfia is already very close to being as good as he can be, whereas the Patrol Craft is still far away.
Yes, he has better numbers than Denorfia at similar levels, but he is 22, Denorfia 27. It could very well be that right now, Denorfia is the better player. A young elite prospect, of your choice, is almost certainly going to be a better than an average in his prime type playerr, long term, but right now, he might be a worse player.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
He did not put up dominant numbers in AA.
Saving the service time would not really be to save money, but to actually have him on the team in 2014. If they do sign him as a FA though, then this is probably good for the reasons you mentioned in the other comment. Way too early to know if that would be a good idea, though.
The A's colors are green and gold.
Maybe if he plays well the next few years
they could sign him to a Shields-esque contract? That would be good.
The A's colors are green and gold.
Yep
I would like to be competing every year from 2009 - 2013, and bringing Carlos Gonzalez up this season helps that along (IMO). If the A's didn't think he was ready, he would definitely be in AAA to start the year. I mean, when was the last time A's management brought someone up early and stunted their growth?
This reminds me of Miguel Tejada circa 1998-1999 - Tejada only had 3 AAA ab's before being called up... and that call-up was all about being competetive ASAP (in 2000). And if Beane likes what he sees, he'll lock CarGon up thru is Arbitration Years +1... and the Silicon $$$ will be rolling in come 2014-2015.
by Colorado Fan on Mar 28, 2008 9:19 AM PDT up reply actions
This is great...
...if CarGon thrives it gives the A's the best chance to win THIS year. Granted, a month ago I wouldn't have thought that they had any chance to win this year. With the Angels injury problems the A's can hang in there and perhaps win 85-89 games, which is enough to contend.
It's 2008, not 2014. Worry about 2014 when you get there.
Syphon's fanpost chronicles it
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Given the grammar of the translation,
I would say he more "examiners" it.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
I-I-I (stammers)
ne-need t-t-to do m-more r-r-reading on dis izzue....but I like the go for broke attitude.
alaska A
im worried
cargon is not gonna turn out to be anything special...but he is so young, that judgement can't be made until he actually plays in the majors a few years
We've never been in that position. We wouldn't know how to operate, I mean, do we get him a corsage?-Billy Beane on signing a high profile FA
Beane probably figures
that he played well against (somewhat) major league competition in spring training, so he's ready for the jump. Denorfia and Ryan Sweeney are certainly safer options, but they haven't given any impression that they'll be real good players this year. Personally I think it's the wrong move unless Gonzalez is an absolute phenom this year. Let him learn CF and get a little more seasoning in AAA for a couple months then call him up, and keep him that extra year at the back end if he turns out to be awesome. A Denorfia/Sweeney combo may not be great, but it's not so awful that you need to do this.
Especially if, as Beane himself says,
the first 1/3 of the season is for checking out your team, making adjustments from there...
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Calculated Risk
You can't really fault Beane for making this move seeing as how neither Denorfia nor Sweeney have really impressed so far in the past month. And since center field seems like the only real question mark (both offensively and defensively) left on the major league roster, Beane's obviously being proactive in filling that void.
CarGon's "virgin" roster status will allow the team to option him back down as often as needed for the next three seasons, limiting the team's overall risk in over-exposing Carlos too soon, so the risk isn't as great as some might think, even if the A's seldom, if ever, send down young players that are struggling.
I guess this is Beane's version of "going for it" while still rebuilding, which, you gotta admit, is a lot more exciting than just trading for Coco Crisp or something.
Agreed, except about Denorfia not impressing
He missed an entire year and predictably looked slow with the bat initially. But he finished the Cactus League going, IIRC, 7 for 15 and then got a key hit against the Red Sox in his only start. So under the circumstances I'm not sure it's fair to say he's done anything not to impress.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
CarGon's "virgin" roster status will allow the team to option him back down as often as needed for the next three seasons, limiting the team's overall risk in over-exposing Carlos too soon, so the risk isn't as great as some might think, even if the A's seldom, if ever, send down young players that are struggling.
This is not correct. Gonzalez has only two options remaining at this point.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Maybe "for the next three seasons" includes this one?
If he struggles they could send him down and go back to Defronia, Florentino, or Sweenye.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
No, I mean, two seasons including this one
He has two options remaining. If and when he is sent down at any point in the 2007 season, he will have one option remaining as of November 2008.
He was on AZ's 40-man roster for all of the 2007 season.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
It does - though I imagine
the A's are following their philosophy of trying not to call up guys until they're ready and then not sending them back down.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
It's pretty hard to imagine them
needing to send him to the minors in 2010.
The A's colors are green and gold.
Or this being such an important conversation if they do!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I want Denorfia!
I like his unorthodox style and solid defensive projections. He seems like real A-grade material. If Denorfia proved valuable this year then the OF in 2009 could have CarGon in left, Denorfia CF, and Buck in right. I don't like that the A's aren't willing to see what Denorfia offers before making this move, not one bit.
You do wonder what's the rush?
Waiting a couple months gives Denorfia time to show what he can or can't do while delaying Gonzalez' service time a year.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Or give Carlos a taste of the majors while Denorfia shakes off the rust in AAA.
Then send Carlos to AAA to work on what he needs to work on while Denorfia drives the center garden patrol craft.
by WaddellCanseco on Mar 28, 2008 3:44 PM PDT up reply actions
Perhaps Beane is just trying to do his part
to reduce the population of "scrappy, white, 'he's a gamer'" news articles polluting America's forests.
Although that begs the question of why they acquired him in the first place.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Emil Brown begs that question.
He's peaked, and I don't see how he'll be any better than Denorfia.
So it goes.
I like it
Accelerate the learning curve for both player and team. I'm less interested in what he might cost and contribute in 2014 than I am in 2010, say. If this new ballpark plan is worth anything whatsoever, it's that the franchise can start occasionally take calculated not-really-so-big risks without worrying about the cost six years down the line.
BTW, I believe I coined "CarGon, take me away!" (dubious credit though that may be).
There is an A in Whimsy.
by FreeSeatUpgrade on Mar 27, 2008 6:10 PM PDT reply actions
and if he wears his trousers baggy ...
CarGo Pants
As reassuring as Bud's words were, the dulcet tone of his voice and his dashing appearance really sealed the deal for me. ~ GreenNGoldSooner @('.')@
Or if he just gets tired trying to leg out a triple
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Well, we already know what his fan club will be called
The CarGo Cult.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
And he will be the media darling when we open 2010 in Australia
Winner of the 2008 "find grover a new sig" contest.
I myself am highly partial to today's "Marabino Patrol Craft"
... as opposed to the nickname for whichever player has gone in with the A's Traveling Secretary on a scheme to embezzle fuel from the A's charter planes ... aka "Morabito Petrol Graft."
As reassuring as Bud's words were, the dulcet tone of his voice and his dashing appearance really sealed the deal for me. ~ GreenNGoldSooner @('.')@
An important point about future FA/2014...
I know I'm usually in the "overly concerned about service time" crowd, but this issue is a little bit different than it is with, say, Evan Longoria in Tampa Bay or Ryan Braun last year in Milwaukee.
With Braun in '07 and Longoria in '08, you know that the moment they come up, they'll be good enough that they won't get sent down again. That's why it's ok to take the shortcut explanation and say that "their teams delay their free agency/arbitration by one year by waiting to bring them up."
Carlos Gonzalez is slightly different, in the sense that, unlike the other two were, he's not the consensus best minor league hitter in baseball. My point is, its very plausible that Gonzalez will struggle enough that it'll require sending him down at some point this year.
His service time "clock" is not some unstoppable force that continues the first time he's brought up to the majors. It stops when he gets sent down, and continues when he gets re-added to the big club.
It's conceivable that he gets a 2-3 month cup of coffee, goes back down to AAA, and then sticks with the big club for good in '09. That's the best of both worlds, and has three great benefits - Carlos gets some experience at the big-league level, Nico gets to satiate his fiery hot need for Gonzalezes in '08, and the team gets to save money over the long run.
It's important to know that bringing him up now doesn't guarantee an arbitration hearing in three years, or an FA launch six years from now. Even one minor league pitstop changes that entire timeline.
"I still say put Jack Cust on some roller skates, arm him with a squeeze tube of epoxy, and let him loose in CF...righteous!" -MRod
by notsellingjeans on Mar 27, 2008 7:58 PM PDT reply actions
Let me add that the A's could send Carlos Gonzalez down
precisely as Gio Gonzalez is proving to be ready for the big leagues, enabling Gio to be called up in exchange for Carlos and thus satisfying my fiery hot need for as much continuous Gonzalez-08ness as is humanly - though as you know, I am not limited by the human species in my tastes - possible.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I read this as
I am not limited by the human species in my testes
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
What you say is true
but I find it irritating to be, in some sense, rooting for him to get sent down for a while.
Maybe that's putting it in too strong of terms, but it certainly makes me more ambivalent about him succeeding.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
In your opinion
the Brewers were wise to hold Ryan Braun back? They finished 2 games behind the Cubs.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
good read, good posting
I will admit I was as swept up as most, and still am pretty enamored, but reading through the responses I find I am less excited about the Gonzalez call up. Did Denorfia really play his way out of the spot? Or is this the precursor to the Harden and/or Blanton trades? Is this where we all get pumped into thinking this is the end of the rebuilding and we are actually going to compete, only to have two established pitchers yanked out of the system, leaving us with kids at most every position? If we had already dealt Blanton and Harden, this move makes more sense. I hope that feeling deep down inside is my mexican food lunch and not the sinking feeling that imminent doom is just around the corner. By the way, in case anyone was wondering what I had for lunch, I ordered the Marabino.
"Doesn't play well with the other children." Ms. Darias, principal, Broad Ave School
Blanton & Harden
I really, really, really would be shocked if Blanton and/or Harden get traded before June 2008. For 1: they will have more value closer to the trade deadline. For 2: Management wants to see what they have w/ Gio Gonzalez, DLS, Henry Rodriguez, James Simmons, Trevor Cahill, Brett Anderson, etc...
Quick Question for anyone: If Harden were to make it through this season healthy, would you extend him another 3 Years/30-Million, On top of his Option-Year next season? This would keep Harden through 2012. I would think Harden might take that deal.
by Colorado Fan on Mar 28, 2008 9:34 AM PDT up reply actions
Are you kidding?
Seriously? 30 million for Rich Harden?
Beane would have to be tripping on paint thinner to make that move.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
No, he'd just have to believe with confidence
that Harden would be healthy for the next three years. That is a bargain salary for someone who is a potential Cy Young award winner every healthy season.
However, I don't have that confidence and would thus avoid such a deal - as I think Beane will. By 2010 we should have healthier options available to fill the front end of the rotation, specifically the most successful from among Gio, DLS, and Cahill.
Also, I think Blanton and Harden are going nowhere - you bring up Carlos because you want to get better now, not for a 2010 improvement. Why waste service time and then give up on 2008-09 by trading your veteran #1 and #2 starters to "get better in a couple years"?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
your conditionals are specious
Saying $30M "is a bargain salary for someone who is a potential Cy Young award winner every healthy season" in reference to Harden is like saying $30M is a bargain salary for a potential perennial-MVP-caliber SS in reference to Crosby.
And you simply can't start making assumptions about Harden and Blanton's disposition based on the non-confirmed Patrol Craft rumor.
As reassuring as Bud's words were, the dulcet tone of his voice and his dashing appearance really sealed the deal for me. ~ GreenNGoldSooner @('.')@
No, I'm saying if health wasn't a factor
and the risk of injury going forward were like every other pitcher, the deal would make sense. Meaning: If Beane's assessment of the situation is that Harden's injuries are behind him, the result of flukey defensive plays, then it's not an absurd offer to consider.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
in other words, if Harden weren't, in fact, who he is
As reassuring as Bud's words were, the dulcet tone of his voice and his dashing appearance really sealed the deal for me. ~ GreenNGoldSooner @('.')@
Aaron Cook - Colorado Rockies
Health Problems for the past 5 years, and he just signed a 3 Year/30-Million deal this offseason. Was that a bad move?
by Colorado Fan on Mar 28, 2008 10:43 AM PDT up reply actions
Probably
Then again, Colorado had enough problems finding pitchers last year that Mark Redman was in their rotation, so they may have been over a barrel as far as Cook was concerned.
The A's are emphatically not over a barrel with regard to Harden. There are multiple guys in the pipeline with the potential and track record to become front-of-the-rotation starters.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Well Cook did
pitch 212 innings in 2006, 166 innings in 2007.
Cook is a ground ball pitcher, and has shown an ability to pitch decently with Colorado as his home park. The Rockies are also a contending team.
Basically, IMO, if a team in Colorado's position, contending team, with a couple good players under control for the next 2-3 years, ie Holliday(2 years more) and Hawpe(3), and in their primes, is not willing to take a risk a risk on Cook, then they are probably more interested in collecting revenue sharing checks instead of actually trying to contend.
If Harden does manage a healthy 200 IP season, Ben Sheets, FA after 2008, and AJ Burnett, can opt out of his contract after 2008, would be interesting comps.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
No, Monkeyball - Harden is one of TWO pitchers
Either he's a pitcher who couldn't stay healthy from 2005-07 and won't from 2008 on, or he's a pitcher who couldn't stay healthy from 2005-07 but will thereafter. Nobody knows which he is, and there is obviously great risk involved in hoping he's the latter. But he may be - you don't know, I don't know, Beane doesn't know.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
agree with Nico
and would say that as of now Blanton and Harden have more value as kept assets than they do as trade bait. It's going to take a while for Harden to lower his risk enough that the A's would get a good enough package considering the talent. Blanton... we'll see who gets desperate midseason.
by oakinboston on Mar 28, 2008 10:04 AM PDT up reply actions
I think trading Harden makes sense only if
a. He's pitching well, healthy come July
b. We're still not in the race anyway
c. Beane doesn't think he'll stay healthy through 2009
Seems to me the odds of all that happening are low.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
a is a sine qua non, obviously
but b only matters if you think Beane cares about public opinion, and c doesn't make any sense at all to me. It wasn't the fear that Haren would be injured that led Beane to deal him-- it was the fact that the team needed a rebuild.
Spending $7 million and getting two mediocre draft picks instead of multiple good prospects just to play a weak hand at the 2009 division title is a luxury the A's can't afford. Even if you believe Harden's 100%, it's self-indulgence. Particularly considering that both the Angels and Mariners have multiple key players approaching free agency after the 2009 season.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
If Harden is not going to worth $7M
in 2009 on a one year commitment, he's not going to get you multiple good prospects.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
He might be worth $7M to someone
"Someone," however, is not likely to be Oakland.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
So, you just hope and pray
that you get lucky and some GM is dumb enough to give up multiple good prospects for a guy who is not worth $7M /1.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
Dude
I'm not suggesting they release him. (If he gets hurt again, then we get into non-tender mode. But he' s not there yet.)
Just that they trade him this year rather than hanging on to him until next year and trying to chase a pennant with him.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Really?
If Harden is healthy all season (if, if, if)... Isn't he at TOP3 Pitcher (statistically) in all the MLB? Might he be more valuable as trade bait, too?
by Colorado Fan on Mar 28, 2008 10:38 AM PDT up reply actions
1 full season
would probably not be enough to shed the risk teams perceive in future injury. But, you never know who is willing to gamble
Nico What are you looking forward to?
If he does become really good then he will get traded. Seriously dude you have been an A's fan long enough to know this
has the source of this article been verified?
This article sounds so goofy and contrived that it very well could be just a hoax/joke/rumor. The translation is so loopy--it seems to be funny on purpose. We could all be getting scammed here, which in a way I hope is the case. The best place for CarGo(n) to learn a new postion, to hit lefties, and to work a count is Sacto. Denorfia wouldn't be spectacular, but he projects to be steady (anything is an impovement over #21DL DL DL) and his defense in CF would allow us to play a plus bat/minus glove in LF...
Is this article fact or fiction? Does anyone know for sure? Anyone who knows anything concrete about this source, please speak up...
I call...
B***S***, this doesn't make a whole lotta sense in relation to any of the teams plans, nor does it relate to the way the A's run the organization. This is a team that prides itself on optimizing value...also this being a report from down south, alone, makes it iffy. Remember the Venezuelen paper reporting Adam Jones trade a few weeks too early? I know that they turned out to be right but that deal was far from finalized and it does show that these papers may jump the gun a bit.
by throttle mathius on Mar 28, 2008 12:48 AM PDT up reply actions
Quite simply
I hate this decision on a lot of levels, most of them have probably been covered here (I saw PT had a few posts and we seem to agree on CarGon and how he should be handled, so I'll assume he did the speaking for me. I hope he didn't say anything racist or anything!).
CarGon could use some seasoning to improve in AAA. I don't think Sweeney or Denorfia have anything else to prove down there. I don't think it helps any of the players involved, and could easily hurt all of them.
http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/
by thejd44 on Mar 28, 2008 12:42 AM PDT reply actions
Sweeney has more to prove in AAA. His numbers there aren't that great.
He's played there a lot, but that's not the same thing as success.
by WaddellCanseco on Mar 28, 2008 8:49 AM PDT up reply actions
My point is that he probably is what he is
and that more time there won't help him, while some time there will help Gonzalez. And I think bringing Gonzalez up too early could damage his development (while time in AAA might be "wasted" if he is ready but it won't have a negative impact overall).
I guess what I'm saying is there doesn't seem to be much to lose by having Gonzalez in AAA now, but there is something to lose by calling him up. It's risk vs. reward, and I don't think the reward (a couple months of ML experience) is worth the risk.
http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/
by thejd44 on Mar 28, 2008 1:31 PM PDT up reply actions
Doesn't make any sense to me.
To me, you leave Gonzalez at AAA for the first month or two. That solves the service issue. There are two major league options already for CF, and if one of them is completely horrible, simply play the other. I don't believe either Denorfia or Sweeney is going to be an all-star, but I also don't think they will be terrible. Certainly not to the point of being the reason the team does or does not contend. Gonzalez will not likely be great this season, and if the difference is one of month a good Gonzalez vs. an OK Denorfia, that's going to be, what, 1 or 2 wins, at most? I'd gladly trade those 2 wins for another year of Gonzalez.
The point is...
if he wins us 1-2 games now then he can possibly win us 3-4 games 09 instead of 1-2 in 09. With all the revenue sharing and new park we shouldnt have to worry about that anymore. Of course if what Beane says is true about being in a new revenue stream com 2012.
When will then be now? Soon.
There's no reason to believe that Gonzalez coming up early
will cause the team to win more games in 2009. Heck, given how bad his projections are, there's no reason to believe it will cause the team to win more games in 2008!
Now, granted, there's no reason (other than the projections) to believe he WON'T win the team more games, but in the absence of any other useful information, the one thing we definitely know is that calling him up now will potentially cost the team his services in 2014.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
I think you are
relying on projections too much. Sure they can be useful for a 7 year vet to project a year. But not so much for young prospects coming outta double A, with minor time in AAA. He could be very good. Id rather have the potential of being very good over not so much potential while be consistantly average to below average.
When will then be now? Soon.
Read grover's article on MLEs
Gonzalez played last year at the level of a replacement level corner outfielder. He will probably improve this year, and continue to improve, but is highly unlikely to crack average before 2009.
Denorfia's been playing for the last three years (absent the regular season last year) at the level of a plus option in center field. I don't know where this trope about his ceiling being a league-average player has come from, but I find it both irritating and inaccurate. His track record shows a guy with the potential to play good defense, hit .300 with some power and steal in the double digits. If that sounds like "average to below average" to you, I conclude that you are much too finicky about good players.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
I don't think Syphon is too finicky ...
... I think s/he simply prefers to express theoretical doubts about minor-league projections when they contradict what s/he wants to be true.
As reassuring as Bud's words were, the dulcet tone of his voice and his dashing appearance really sealed the deal for me. ~ GreenNGoldSooner @('.')@
The point that I'm trying to make to him/her
is that these aren't projections-- they're numbers which have been accrued by playing baseball against opponents of varying competitive level. The notion that CD can hit .300 is not a fanciful one. He won, if I recall correctly, the IL batting title in at least one season.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
oh, I agree with you entirely
I am fully convinced that the various projection schemes have a fair degree of accuracy. I also agree entirely that jp's contention that the Rally Pimpernel's ceiling is Patrol Craft's floor is a mistruth.
As reassuring as Bud's words were, the dulcet tone of his voice and his dashing appearance really sealed the deal for me. ~ GreenNGoldSooner @('.')@
All Im saying is..
its alot harder to project a prospect like Gonzalez rather than a 5-8 year vet in which we have much more info.
When will then be now? Soon.
Which is to suggest that the standard deviation
for AA -> majors rookies is higher than it is for 5-8 year major league veterans. Is this true, O Staturdarians?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Time for rosterbation?
I haven't seen Zonis in a while so, I'll take a shot at the 25 man
C - Suzuki
C - Bowen
1B - Barton
1B - Johnson
2B - Ellis
3B - Hannahan
SS - Crosby
IF - Murphy
LF - Buck
CF - MPC
RF - Cust
OF - Denorfia
OF - Brown
DH - Sweeney
SP - Harden
SP - Blanton
SP - Ducscherrer (sic?)
SP - Smith
SP - Eveland
RP - Street
RP - Embree
RP - Foulke
RP - Brown
RP - Casilla
RP - Dinardo
DL - Chavez, Gaudin, Calero
Did I miss anybody? Is it Johnson that goes if/when Chavez is healthy? How about when we sign Bonds?
"Not in your wildest alcoholic nightmare would you ever imagines such events unfolding!" Bill King
Fernando Hernandez, no Greg Smith
Pretty sure Johnson will be gone, but you have 11 pitchers, so fill that spot with Gaudin when he comes back. Bonds will replace Brown and play LF.
The A's colors are green and gold.
Thanks for clearing up my confusion about Barry!
"Not in your wildest alcoholic nightmare would you ever imagines such events unfolding!" Bill King
by Buck Turgidson on Mar 28, 2008 4:02 PM PDT up reply actions
I wonder about something...
If CGon indeed is coming up to play CF, then who plays LF against RHP?
Against lefties, you can play Brown in LF or even Cust in LF with Denorfia in CF and Mike Sweeney at DH.
But against RHP, if CGon is in CF you can't put Cust in LF IMO (too horrid a defensive OF), which leaves Denorfia on the bench and either Brown in LF vs. RHP (bleah) with Mike Sweeney on the bench (so not really an offensive improvement overall), or...who?
I don't see the answer and it's 75% of the games!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
In other words, why not just put CGon in LF,
jettison Brown, put CGon, Denorfia, Buck, Cust (DH) in the lineup vs. RHP, and Cust, Denorfia, Buck, Mike Sweeney (DH) in the lineup vs. LHP?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Because Brown mashes LHP
which was the whole reason they acquired him.
I mean, I suppose you could drop Travis Buck from the lineup against lefties, but that seems silly.
This doesn't make any sense to me. The team is wasting way too many bench spots on outfielders and DHs.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Brown doesn't mash lefties - I looked it up
His career splits are actually fairly even, with a striking exception last season. And even in his best seasons he hasn't mashed LHP at a Kielty level - he's just been "good". If we wanted a LF who mashed LHP even if he didn't play great defense or offer great speed or exceptional power, we should have re-signed Kielty.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I must be misremembering his stats
As for Kielty, I think that bridge was burnt long ago.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
.264/.338/.439 for his career is hardly "mashing" lefties
Kielty's .296/.379/.503 is mashing lefties.
It would be entirely different if Brown was on that level, but he's not even close.
That's a perfectly reasonable thing to do
on the RHP side. I don't think it makes sense to have Cust in the OF against LHP. I'd rather see Brown (better option in the OF than Cust against LHP) or the Patrol Craft (will suck, but it would be had to to never give him a chance against lefties) out there. If and when the Patrol Craft makes the team, it's R. Sweeney vs. Brown for a spot, and I think Brown figures to contribute more this year. Basically, if the Patrol Craft is in CG, R. Sweeney is pretty useless.
The A's colors are green and gold.
They played Brown in LF against Matsuzaka. Why wouldn't they do it against other righties?
by WaddellCanseco on Mar 28, 2008 3:52 PM PDT up reply actions
Specifically because they may not have wanted to
play Cust in the OF in the Tokyo Dome but might play him there in familiar stadia. Just a guess, but actually the way I would play it as a manager.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I really like the idea
even if it does cost the A's down the line. Gonzalez looked really ready during spring training. Then again, that is spring training. I just like the idea of giving a supremely talented player a chance to compete at the highest level, like the A's did with Chavez. Have him take his lumps and learn now. Perhaps he surprises you and if he doesn't and is absolutely horrible, well then you can always just send him down to Sacramento where he can regain his confidence.
Plus, this is purely from a selfish standpoint, but the team is a lot more interesting with Gonzalez in the outfield rather than Sweeney or Denorfia.
by Tyler Bleszinski on Mar 28, 2008 9:59 AM PDT reply actions
Just wondering, Blez, what are your thoughts
about my "I wonder about something..." question two comments up?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I think if they jettison Brown then it makes
a lot of sense. But they'd have to do that first.
by Tyler Bleszinski on Mar 28, 2008 5:22 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm talking about the question of who plays LF
against RHP if CGon is in CF.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I wanted to see the original article
(I'd be willing to do a real translation), but the link provided by Syphon didn't take me to any article.
I also haven't found any confirmation of this move anywhere else. Has anyone found that?
It's real
I'm Venezuelan and I live in Maracaibo, I was reading "La Verdad" (The True) when I saw the article ON PAPER...I got My PC and Found the same article on La Verdad's web page...And I posted it in another Athletics' forum ...I suppose somebody got the article from that page...
"La Verdad" it's a very serious newspaper, they don't made up this kind of news. I believe this 100%, well I believe that Carlos Gonzalez told this, If he's liying or confused is another history
It has a new URL http://www.laverdad.com/detallenew.asp?idcat=5&idnot=70601
nonconfirmational, but interesting, detail
The A's current active roster at mlb.com has 26 players active -- including Patrol Craft.
IIRC, their only recent stipulations have been the 28-man/3-excluded for the 2 games in Tokyo. Which means that they've done some tinkering/reassigning, but have yet to take Gonzalez off the active roster.
As reassuring as Bud's words were, the dulcet tone of his voice and his dashing appearance really sealed the deal for me. ~ GreenNGoldSooner @('.')@
That's inaccurate
It lists Duchscherer and Eveland as being inactive, which was true for the Japan series. Both of them are still with the big-league club, however.
There are 31 players who are theoretically contenders for a 40-man roster spot. In practice I can't see any of the NRIs making the team at this point. It's likely that either Braden or DiNardo will be sent down from the pitching staff, and for the outfield one assumes that Fiorentino is heading down. With the report above, Gonzalez would seem to be on the team, meaning one of Denorfia and Sweeney will be cut.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
What I expect is that
Braden, R. Sweeney, and Fiorentino will be sent down, with DiNardo handling long-relief duties and E. Brown sticking around for the time being. Presumably, if CGon is indeed coming aboard to play CF, then Denorfia becomes a true platoon player complementing either CGon or Brown.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Brown and Denorfia are both right handers
Did you mean "CGon or Buck"?
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
No, I see Buck as an everyday player
I'm not sure what I meant. How about "CGon"?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
So im still confused....
Why isnt the game at Phone Company Park on TV?
Your 2008 East Bay Athletic Rivercats of the greater Fremont Area!
And why are we the home team,
and why do the Giants get 97% of the gate, and why do they keep showing Matt Cain in the dugout?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
interview with González translated by me
(for those of you interested in an actual translation):
link to the original article here
Carlos González will debut with the Oakland Athletics.
By David Chacón noticias@laverdad.com
Late, but it has come to pass. This year Carlos González will live his most desired dream since he signed a professional contract with the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Zulia Eagles (VZ).
The outfielder from Zulia will debut in the Big Leagues this season. The stipulated date is this coming Tuesday, when the Oakland Athletics play their third game of the year, after dividing honors with the Boston Red Sox in Japan.
Bob Geren’s team will now host the reigning champions of the Big Show in their house, MacAfee Coliseum.
"I’m very excited about this opportunity," were González’ first words to La Verdad.
The Zulia Eagles player was about to begin a long trip from Arizona to Oakland, ten hours driving accompanied by his girlfriend Rainelly.
""It’s not affecting me much since I’m already so excited. Before the team left for Japan the general manager, Billy Beane, gave me the news, but it was a secret.
His family is waiting for that so hoped-for moment of his appearance in the majors. "they are very happy and I feel good about that, since it was something that we had been hoping for for quite some time."
Sure
It is the first time in his career that he will be part of the 25-man roster. "It’s something that I can’t explain, but like always I say that the most difficult thing will be to maintain myself."
González is already super sure that his debut will be this coming Tuesday and he has sufficient reason to believe that. "they told me that I was going to play centerfield."
The lefty outfielder must demonstrate this weekend that he is totally recovered from the injury he sustained in his right leg, the same injury that prevented him from traveling to Japan for the opening games.
"They asked me to play Saturday and Sunday in minor league games, but that will be only a formality, since my leg is fine. I don’t have any pain at all. I am 100% recovered."
Busy
Between practices, minor league games and preparations for the trip to Oakland, Carlos didn’t have a chance to see his team’s games in Japan.
"Those are things that happen. It wasn’t meant for me to be in Japan and now I am concentrating on my debut next week. That is my priority for now."
Regarding the expectations that he has generated since his arrival to the Oakland team, he preferred not to speak much. "They have praised me a lot, but I’m not thinking about it. What I liked best was that they said I was more than they expected."
The 216th?
Up to now 215 Venezuelans have debuted in the Big Leagues. Armando Galarraga, with the Texas Rangers in 2007, was the last to debut.
Gregorio Petit has the change to become the 216 when he was included on Oakland’s roster for the Japan games, but he wasn’t used by the manager Bob Geren.
Carlos González may be number 216. We still need to wait, though, because the possibility still exists that Gregor Blanco (to name just one example), will stay up with the Atlanta Braves, who will play Sunday against the Nationals.
We stil need to wait for the definitive rosters, because on Monday there are 14 games programmed.
SF Chron is already blogging
about AN blogging about the interview in La Verdad
Here's the link to the blog entry posted by Vlae Kershner
And now we're blogging about SF Chron blogging about our blogging.
by WaddellCanseco on Mar 28, 2008 4:05 PM PDT up reply actions
Whoa, that's deep
Can't we just go back to talking about how much Bobby Crosby sucks or something?
http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/
by thejd44 on Mar 28, 2008 5:21 PM PDT up reply actions
I'd like to talk about the Drumbeat talking about us talking about how Crosby sucks
As reassuring as Bud's words were, the dulcet tone of his voice and his dashing appearance really sealed the deal for me. ~ GreenNGoldSooner @('.')@
sure, I'll gaze at your navel if you gaze at mine
seriously, props to whoever unearthed that Venezuelan link... . and so far this year (small sample size), Crosby decidedly doesn't suck. He was the game MVP the game I went to in ST.
by vk on Mar 28, 2008 6:16 PM PDT up reply actions
CarGon's "Makeup" Issues
The pluses and minuses from a performance standpoint have been well discussed above. But one thing that kind of bothers me about "rushing" CarGon to the majors is the impact that the process might have on his makeup and mental development.
When I first started reading some background info on CarGon I came across some chatter that intimated that over the past few seasons in the minors he was somewhat mentally immature, acting with a lot of cockiness, alienating his teammates while not always giving 100-percent effort on the field.
Sure, A LOT of hot-shot minor leaguers act like that for awhile and eventually straighten out, but here's a guy that has only been in this new organization for a few months, probably doesn't know a lot of guys and has not played a single major league game alongside his new teammates.
Could Beane be asking for trouble by challenging this young guy before he is MENTALLY ready to be a major leaguer?
Would that be physically, or just a mental state?
As reassuring as Bud's words were, the dulcet tone of his voice and his dashing appearance really sealed the deal for me. ~ GreenNGoldSooner @('.')@
Just mental.
If he hasn't really developed the mental toughness and maturity to "bring it everyday" then it probably won't really help the team to have him around, and it certainly won't help Carlos to learn how to do that while on the big league team and with the other pressures that go along with that.
Before I read your entire post
I was worried that CarGon's mascara was running or something.
http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/
by thejd44 on Mar 28, 2008 5:22 PM PDT up reply actions
two things i really don't understand
1) why is barry bonds not a member of the 2008 oakland a's yet.
2) what possible reason there would be to place carlos gonzalez on the 25 man roster right now.
i have accepted emil brown and keith foulke, but i don't get this gonzalez thing at all (if true, i'm still hoping it's not).
the dude is not ready to play CF at the major league level. he came to the team with plate discipline being the biggest concern and has zero walks this spring. even if it's not "your" money in 2014, money does matter and every team has a finite amount of the stuff.
and i don't get the ryan braun comparisons. gonzalez 800 ops in aa to braun's 950. gonzalez 700 OPS and 0 hr this spring, braun i think had around 8 hr last spring, and a ridiculous OPS, i think over 1.500.
but if gonzalez hits 10 jacks with a 1.100 OPS in aaa and meanwhile denorfia and sweeney are hitting like counsell and graffanino, sure, call the kid up.
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05
I agree - I don't get it either
Maybe the Red Sox really want Denorfia and Beane is sitting on a good trade? Grasping at straws here to make it make sense.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
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