The Hypothetical Also Rises
Rich Harden was pretty freaking brilliant today. Blanton was good yesterday, albeit not Harden good, but he doesn't have Harden's stuff.
Now I'm well aware of small sample sizes and the fact that Harden started four games last year, so he hasn't proven anything yet. So I putting the proverbial cart ahead of the horse here, but hear me out for a second. If you combine the fact that Blanton and Harden are a pretty damn good 1-2 punch with the Angels news today that Kelvim Escobar is fearing for his career, there is a scenario where it's possible that the A's could hang in the AL West race this year rather than be the poor "rebuilding" team that most of the experts seem to expect (and want - if I had to hear Hanrahan and Dale Barton one more time I was going to mail a cluephone to Gary Thorne and ESPN). That would create quite a dilemma for Billy Beane simply because the A's are a better team with Blanton and Harden healthy and starting.
So what do you do? Obviously if Harden is healthy and pitching the way he is, he's going to be worth a truckload of high quality, high end prospects. Seriously, Harden, at his best, should bring an enormous return. But Harden is also only 26 years old and has the potential to be the kind of ace that every team desires. He's the kind of guy that the A's could build one of the best staffs in baseball around. At the same time, if the intention this year is to build towards something better in the future, trading a healthy Harden could make the team minor league depth unparalleled in all of baseball.
I don't know about you, but I want the team to compete if it can. Beane made some smart trades when he dealt away Haren and Swisher. He essentially got back some players who are going to be filling in a few holes on the team in 2008, but also got a ton of talent who project further away. If Harden excels and has a Cy Young like start, then the team is essentially forfeiting all chances at challenging in 2008 by dealing him away.
Those are a lot of assumptions. The biggest one being that Harden makes it past his next couple of starts without his arm falling off. But making that hypothetical leap of faith, what do you think Beane should do if the A's are hanging close to the front of the AL West come the trading deadline and Harden is healthy and pitching well, meaning his trade value might be ridiculously high?
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138 comments
Comments
Blez -
I don't know how to edit it myself so I'm telling you publicly...In the linescore above (which is cool, by the way), the hits are backwards - the A's had 9 hits, the Red Sox 5.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Mar 26, 2008 4:01 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
The same problem was on PurpleRow yesterday
I posted this comment, and Russ from PR said it was due to The Sports Network. Also of note is that the line score has the A's as the visitors.
"Evidently, a large number of people said, 'We really need more vermin at the ballpark, Artie.'" - Nick (AN), 10/7/07
by doctorK on Mar 26, 2008 4:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe they went by the size of the clubhouses
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Mar 26, 2008 4:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm currently writing a petition
asking MLB to take a "home" game away from the Sox when the A's are there. No Neil. Fly the drummers and trumpet guy in. A's get the home clubhouse. $2 BART tickets. 25000 max ticket sales (but 80% of those would be allowed to be Sox fans, cause that's how it is at the Coliseum). Celebration when we win.
Fanpost with said petition forthcoming...
"If you could fart into a kind of microprocessing funnel, and the funnel poured the fart into a computer, which converted the fart into words, this is what it would look like." - Ken Tremendous, FJM
by HigherPie on Mar 26, 2008 5:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Add that the telecast has to show
3,000 shots of Blanton.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Mar 26, 2008 5:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
On a day he's not pitching.
The candy and the baseball all night long: )
by Englishmajor on Mar 26, 2008 5:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Of course - the shots are just
because white culture is so exciting!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Mar 26, 2008 5:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Whatever, dude.
I know more about your culture than you do.
"If you could fart into a kind of microprocessing funnel, and the funnel poured the fart into a computer, which converted the fart into words, this is what it would look like." - Ken Tremendous, FJM
by HigherPie on Mar 26, 2008 5:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow - they know me better than I know myself!
It's comforting because we white people is so often ununderstood.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Mar 26, 2008 5:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes. Yes, it is.

way to speed humanities demise douche bags! @('.')@
by monkeyball on Mar 26, 2008 5:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oooooooh! Sourdough batter!
"If you could fart into a kind of microprocessing funnel, and the funnel poured the fart into a computer, which converted the fart into words, this is what it would look like." - Ken Tremendous, FJM
by HigherPie on Mar 26, 2008 5:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sign Me Up.
I was incensed to learn the HOME team was to occupy the VISITORS clubhouse! This is a total joke for Oakland. I understand taking the games from the A's home schedule, as opposed to the more "lucrative" Boston slate. However, a frickin' "coin toss" to decide the clubhouse...
I'll sign a petition.
"These Boston People Are AWFUL"
by Brillz on Mar 27, 2008 1:09 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Calm Down!
Bud Selig assured us on Tuesday's broadcast that everything was wonderful with baseball and that Japan was an exciting opportunity for everyone involved! This is the best of all possible baseball worlds!
As reassuring as Bud's words were, the dulcet tone of his voice and his dashing appearance really sealed the deal for me.
In fact, it made me feel so much better about everything that I rubbed on a little extra cream 'n' clear just to celebrate!
Putting the "N" in "NRAF" from Leipzig, Germany!
by GreenNGoldSooner on Mar 27, 2008 5:41 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
sigline!
As reassuring as Bud's words were, the dulcet tone of his voice and his dashing appearance really sealed the deal for me. ~ GreenNGoldSooner @('.')@
by monkeyball on Mar 27, 2008 8:03 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
What does playing the game in Japan
have to do with the clubhouse?
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on Mar 27, 2008 9:13 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I say keep him -
Harden is enough to put the A's in contention for as long as he's healthy, and isn't worth enough in trade because no one knows how he'll hold up.
Plus, as is the A's have a solid rotation with Harden, Blanton, Duke, Gaudin, and Eveland/DiNardo, Gio Gonzalez is ready to excel in 2009, De Los Santos, Simmons, Cahill, Anderson, Leon et al have you stocked for 2010-11. Unless Harden brings you a kick-ass CFer or SS for the next 6 years, how is it worth it to give up contention in one season for more prospects?
I'm telling you, this team can hang in there in the AL West for as long as Harden takes the mound. CarGon is on his way to bolster a team that is already better than the pundits think.
But I'm the weirdo who thinks Duke will win 15 games this season.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Mar 26, 2008 4:07 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
OK
Scenario time: it's mid-June, the A's are in contention but not way out in front, Beckett's just gone on the DL for the second time this season, and Schilling has hung up his spikes. Boston offers you Jed Lowrie, Justin Masterson and Oscar Tejeda for Harden.
Deal or no deal?
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Mar 26, 2008 4:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
My first reaction is to say no.
Assuming that Boston is after Harden because they need an ace, and Harden is pitching like an ace, it's not going to hurt Harden's trade value at all to keep him all season and deal him in the offseason -- he's proven that he can stay healthy at that point.
by mikev on Mar 26, 2008 4:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
no deal
its not guaranteed that any of our prospects pan out...if you have a contending team at present, you go for it. Now, thats not to say morgage the future for the present, but we already have a decent future from here on out with our farm system, why wouldn't we try to go for it now as well? the playoffs are a crapshoot, and that would be one hell of a story for us to win it all. Plus, if harden is healthy, you can still trade him in the off season. You would probably get the most value for him anyways.
We've never been in that position. We wouldn't know how to operate, I mean, do we get him a corsage?-Billy Beane on signing a high profile FA
by DyeLongJustice on Mar 26, 2008 4:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
deal
I absolutely adore Rich Harden. But if he makes 15 starts, I'd be shocked. And if he does make 30 starts, I'd almost rather he'd do it for someone else (provided we get a good haul), because it's so frickin painful for me to watch him pitch, as I always have one eye closed, a grimace on my face, a defibrillator handy, 3 empty packs of cigarettes, and no nails when it's over.
"If you could fart into a kind of microprocessing funnel, and the funnel poured the fart into a computer, which converted the fart into words, this is what it would look like." - Ken Tremendous, FJM
by HigherPie on Mar 26, 2008 4:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You adore Harden?
Personally, I've come to the conclusion that he's kind of a jerk.
Which isn't to say I don't want him on my team-- hey, Bonds is a jerk too, and I've been agitating for the team to sign him-- just that he doesn't make me feel warm and fuzzy inside.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Mar 26, 2008 5:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You just compare Harden to Bonds?
In terms of jerk-ness?
Formerly known as hward86.
by BWH on Mar 26, 2008 6:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Here's my post in schematic form
Harden jerk-ness >0
Bonds jerk-ness >0
Does that look like a comparison to you?
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Mar 26, 2008 6:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I can think of one other person I'd rate
at >0.
Can you figure out who it is?
Formerly known as hward86.
by BWH on Mar 26, 2008 6:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
ZOMG, a veiled insult!
Wow, man, that's frigging clever. There's no way the mods will figure that one out. You've outsmarted the system.
Well played, sir.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Mar 26, 2008 6:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The veiled shot was well warranted.
Formerly known as hward86.
by BWH on Mar 26, 2008 6:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, grow up.
What is this, first grade recess?
I couldn't care less about your opinion of me if I tried. I would advise you to save everyone's time and not bother with the namecalling.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Mar 26, 2008 6:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You never learn.
Formerly known as hward86.
by BWH on Mar 26, 2008 6:39 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Ah, a new tack
The Disapproving Schoolmarm.
Well, you're nothing if not creative.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Mar 26, 2008 7:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're pretty hilarious, man.
And by the way, Boogie Nights is one of my favorite movies.
"If you could fart into a kind of microprocessing funnel, and the funnel poured the fart into a computer, which converted the fart into words, this is what it would look like." - Ken Tremendous, FJM
by HigherPie on Mar 26, 2008 8:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
From looking at the wikipedia page,
I see that movie was directed by P.T. Anderson, so I'm assuming that's what the reference was. (It flew right over my head initially. This is not an uncommon event for me.)
For better or for worse, though, that's not what my SN is referencing. My name really is Paul Thomas. And before you ask, no, I'm not the porn star either...
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Mar 26, 2008 9:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why is Harden a jerk?
Because he complained that his shoulder wasn't being handled properly?
by IM4Oakgal on Mar 26, 2008 6:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
"I'm not injury-prone"?
Like, the guy totally refuses to acknowledge how people might have gotten a little bit frustrated at him being constantly unavailable for two and a half seasons.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Mar 26, 2008 6:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
For the sake of his confidence
and sanity he has to believe he's not injury prone. An athlete has to think that way going forward.
I'm sure he understands why people have been frustrated with his injuries. He just didn't like certain people criticizing him for not being tough enough to pitch through his pain.
I admire the guy. He's kept himself in fabulous shape through all this down time, and has stayed mentally tough. What he's been through must be agonizing to him, and I think he's handled it about as well as anyone could.
Rationally I would understand Beane trading him, but it would break my heart, and as an A's fan I would be totally against it. After all the frustration and heartbreak we've been through with him, I feel like we deserve to have him pitching for us when he's healthy.
Sweating the small stuff
by SportySpice on Mar 27, 2008 8:01 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Deal, assuming none of those prospects have lost their value by then.
Harden is only here through 2009 anyway and the team is designed to contend starting in 2010. I don't think Padre contention is worth straying from the plan. The risk of course is it's hard to tell Padre contention from Cardinal contention.
by WaddellCanseco on Mar 26, 2008 7:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not sure the plan is to contend starting in 2010
The Gonzo brothers will be in full swing for 2009 along with matured Buck, Barton, Suzuki - and possibly by then a recovered Chavez.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Mar 26, 2008 8:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hmmm...I was thinking 2009 would be like 1999, but you're saying it's like 2000.
I'd still do the deal, because I wouldn't sacrifice Lowrie, Masterson and Tejeda for the possibility of Harden being healthy for two full years in a row.
by WaddellCanseco on Mar 27, 2008 7:31 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
CarGo
The A's have said that, despite CarGo's injury, if he performs well in the three exebition games, the A's might carry him as their Centerfielder.
Considering Denorfia and Sweeney are not doing so hot, it might just happen.
The A's could platoon Sweeney and Brown, or they could throw Jack Cust in Left Field and have Mike Sweeney DH. I think having Cargo in there would fill a big hole. But despite his heroics (and blunder), I am not really high on Emil Brown as our everyday Left Fielder and #5 hitter.
I'd prefer the A's go with a lineup of;
RF Buck
2B Ellis
1B Barton
DH Sweeney
LF Cust
3B Hanahan
CF Gonzalez
SS Crosby
C1 Suzuki
by Zonis on Mar 26, 2008 4:09 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I haven't seen CarGon, but I'm thinking
he could be a corner OFer - is it asking too much for him to handle CF and major league pitching right now? I'm not clear on how scouts feel about his potential to play CF in the bigs. What's the consensus?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Mar 26, 2008 4:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The consensus seems to be
that he's a plus right fielder (maybe even a great one) but stretched in center.
Think Nick Swisher with a slightly better arm.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Mar 26, 2008 4:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Then I think he should either
learn CF in Sacramento or play corner OF in the bigs - but why set up a guy to fail by asking him to learn/refine a key defensive position, while hitting big league pitching for the first time, at the age of 22? That sounds dumb to me.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Mar 26, 2008 4:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I care less about CF
and more about him improving his plate discipline. 360/480 is inestimably better than 320/480.
Particularly given that there are other, older guys (like Denorfia and Fiorentino) who need to get an extended look anyway, I don't understand what the hurry is.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Mar 26, 2008 4:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I guess the "hurry" would be
that if he needs a couple months at the big league level to get it all going, you have a better CarGon in the heat of a pennant race - but why not preserve his service time and give him AAA time that scouts seem to agree would benefit him? It may not be the full-out "rebuilding" year pundits believe it is, but it's also not a "contend at all costs" go-for-it kind of season. Play your chips the way they're supposed to be played and see what happens. Worked pretty well in 2005-06.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Mar 26, 2008 4:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I care about CF, because a good one saves wear on the pitching staff.
Ask the Marlins.
by WaddellCanseco on Mar 26, 2008 7:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
How do you figure that it inestimable?
.360/480 is exactly 40 points higher than .320. There is no estimation involved with a concrete number, and no reason why you would think that a pre defined number would exceed its own value. That makes no sense.
"I Will Not Relent, I Am Driven"... Clutch
Bring Back The Bash!!!
by Shippee33 on Mar 26, 2008 8:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's a figure of speech.
I guess I'm not one to talk...
I actually would be interested, if anyone feels like chiming in, to know how much 40 points of OBP is worth in run terms.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Mar 26, 2008 9:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is the answer linear?
Extreme example with made up numbers to make my point:
Does it matter where the 40 points are along the scale of OBP (from 0 to 1.000)? If an abysmal player (pitcher?) has a .100 OBP and some other player has a .140 OBP, is the difference in runs the same as between .300 and .340? I'm sure it is, but sometimes the math gives funny answers.
http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/
by thejd44 on Mar 26, 2008 11:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Roughly speaking,
about 8-10 runs or thereabouts over a full season.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on Mar 27, 2008 9:48 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd keep them, UNLESS ...
someone is willing to give up absolute top tier talent for Harden (someone like David Price or Jay Bruce). Eventually there is a significant level of diminishing marginal return to good but not great prospects -- we have a VERY deep farm system as it is. It lacks the high end talent of a couple of teams but it's as deep as anybody's.
If Harden makes it through the entire season healthy, I'd think long and hard about moving him in the offseason, though.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on Mar 26, 2008 4:48 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Thing is, if Harden were to make it through
the entire season healthy, it would suggest that maybe his prior (pardon the pun) injuries were flukey (as he claims) and he could be a Cy Young caliber ace for 2009 - allowing the A's to be fully competitive by 2009 instead of 2010 or 2011. Why not pick up his option and get your ace for free (relatively).
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Mar 26, 2008 5:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
There''s limited upside to keeping him at that point ...
since the team only controls him for one more year.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on Mar 26, 2008 5:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
So, an A-/B+ prospect to fill a hole
(EG an Andy LaRoche or a Jed Lowrie) wouldn't cut it for you?
I mean, no one who isn't a complete idiot would give up Jay Bruce for Harden. That's unrealistic.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Mar 26, 2008 5:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well Jay Bruce is the best prospect in the game ...
and I wouldn't insist on him, specifically ...
Lowrie wouldn't, LaRoche might.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on Mar 26, 2008 5:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm just saying
that if you're looking for guys who are further out on the pure talent bell curve than Harden, well, there just aren't all that many of them and pretty much all of them are untouchable.
For pitchers, Clay Kershaw and Joba is pretty much the entire list. For hitters? Maybe Bruce, Longoria, Rasmus and I'm having trouble coming up with more than that. I have a known Cameron Maybin man-crush and even he's not at Harden's level.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Mar 26, 2008 5:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
On the pure talent bell curve ...
I'm not sure anyone is further out there than Harden. Any season Rich Harden can stay healthy for he should win the Cy Young hands down.
But I basically agree with you -- I don't expect anyone to give me the talent I'd need to make the in season trade -- basically a top-10 talent.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on Mar 26, 2008 8:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe contrarian
I'm still afraid that Harden is an injury risk. If we can get a Haren-like package for him (preferably with some stud infield prospects) at any time this year I think we should jump on it.
by LoveDemAs on Mar 26, 2008 4:51 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Trade/prospect happy
As soon as an A's player attracts the radar, AN'ers raises the 'trade value/prospects' clamor. I wonder what prospects Hunter or Blue or Reggie might have brought. Prospects maybe, but no WS pennants!
by philly a's on Mar 26, 2008 4:54 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
We'll never know what prospects Reggie might have brought...
because the sale was voided by the commish.
Who knows, maybe the A's don't fall into that late-70s period of utter awfulness if the team is able to rebuild by cashing some of those guys in for youth.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Mar 26, 2008 5:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Keep em'
Is this not a better offensive team than we had last year? I don't think it's any bit of a stretch for Barton, Suzuki, Brown, or whoever is in the outfield to outperform Kendall, Kotsay, Johnson, or Swisher. On top of that, if Crosby gets any worse than he was last year, he shouldn't be in the big leagues, he has nowhere but up to go. Same with Chavez. With that said, that team was pretty competitive given the ridiculous amount of injuries. I don't see why this team cannot compete with any other team in the west. Especially with a healthy Harden and Blanton.
I'm not sure how much longer we have Harden signed for, but if it's going to be 2 or 3 years down the road, then why not keep him? That way we will have him when the new guys are really coming into their own. It's a sure thing that Harden can dominate, if he is traded away for more prospects, it's a possibility that the guys in return could never work out (Dan Meyer comes to mind). The starters we have and guys we have seen during spring training aren't going anywhere for a while, unless they all flop, I mean we already essentially have a set future starting 9 in Suzuki, Barton, Ellis/Murphy, Crosby, Hannahan, Buck, and Gonzalez/Denorfia; minus a sure CF. So what is there to gain by trading Harden or Blanton?
by KMoAsFan on Mar 26, 2008 4:54 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
We can have Harden for this year and next -
which is an option year. Everyone assumes the A's can't compete because they only won 76 games and then lost their ace. But imagine a team signing free agents like "a healthy Harden" and "Buck, Barton, Suzuki, and Cust all season" - that can improve your team in a hurry. Just like losing Escobar and - for a while Lackey - can level the playing field quickly.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Mar 26, 2008 5:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd rather trade Street/Blanton
Honestly, I love Blanton and Street both, but like so many people have said before, you just don't give up on a talent like Harden, especially if the return package for him is not overwhelming.
I think that Beane could extract a pretty good package for Blanton from a team in need of a starter at the deadline, or for Street if/when a contender loses a closer.
Both Blanton and Street are above-average for their positions and are under club control for the same amount of time, but they won't ever contend for the Cy Young and won't single-handedly turn a rebuilding season into a competitive one (like Harden can).
Healthy Harden + Gio + Cargon + Joey Devine + Greg Smith in 2009 would make for an awfully competitive team, top to bottom, regardless of whether one or both of Street/Blanton are traded sometime this calendar year.
by Taj Adib on Mar 26, 2008 5:23 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Agree - especially Street if H-Rodriguez
continues to excel. I could see Street traded to a contender in July without stopping the A's from moving forward in 2008 or 2009. Harder to see that happening at the front of the rotation.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Mar 26, 2008 5:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah...
I mean, if the object of trading our players is just to be build a deeper farm system with a few more Grade B/B+ prospects, then why not just trade Ellis or Embree for a decent A-baller or two? I mean, like devo mentioned above, at some point there is a diminishing return on heavy investment in prospects since the attrition rate is so high. A questionably healthy Harden with 12 starts under his belt is not going to net the A's a bevy of elite prospects, given his health history, so why jettison him for B-level prospects when he fulfills a very valuable void on your roster?
by Taj Adib on Mar 26, 2008 5:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If the team has a chance to trade Embree for a Grade B/B+ prospect
and doesn't do it... well, it might be going a bit far to say Beane should be fired for that, but it would be an atrocious decision.
Ellis isn't easily replaceable in-house, so there the problem is less losing his current contract and more losing the opportunity to re-sign him once its over. The team absolutely should deal him if they aren't going to re-sign him though.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Mar 26, 2008 5:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed.
I would like to see the team re-sign Ellis though for something like 3 years/$18-20 million. He's such a consummate pro and his defense and bat are undervalued. I think Beane wouldn't get anything close to equal value for him in trade, since teams generally place very low value on 2nd basemen, and since there really isn't anyone in the system ready right now to step in replace Ellis, I'd say that the team should look to keep through the rest of the decade.
by Taj Adib on Mar 26, 2008 5:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Disagree. 2B's aren't that reliable in their 30's and are easily found.
See Dick Green and Asdrubal Cabrera.
by WaddellCanseco on Mar 26, 2008 7:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
2Bs who are +20 runs defensively
are not easily found, because outside of Mark Ellis, they basically don't exist.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Mar 26, 2008 7:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Right, usually they're called
Shortstop.
http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/
by thejd44 on Mar 26, 2008 11:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1 and +1
way to speed humanities demise douche bags! @('.')@
by monkeyball on Mar 26, 2008 6:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Absolutely love the avatar
Chiba Lotte lost simultaneously in the fighter plane of the Japanese ham.
by JediLeroy on Mar 27, 2008 11:41 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If the A's are in contention in July
They should go for it. I was glad when they kept Zito a few years back and we made it to the ALCS. The fans deserve to have the A's admin. try to bring a WS to Oakland when it's within reach.
by IM4Oakgal on Mar 26, 2008 5:56 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
A couple thoughts
First, Beane's job is to bring the A's a championship. He only traded Haren and Swisher this year because he felt they were too far away and he was setting himself up to win a championship later. If the A's are in first place or otherwise playoff bound, it goes against what he's there to do to hurt the team's chances.
Second, even if the A's are struggling in the middle of the season, there's no need to trade either guy. You can, I suppose, if the deal is right. But there's no reason to shop two guys who are under your control. I think most of us here believe the A's can be serious contenders as soon as next year. Wouldn't we like to have Blanton and Harden a part of that? So unless a team is desperate and offering the farm for one of them, why move them in July when you can re-assess in December and vote yay or nay on a serious run in 2009?
A farm system is great. I support the Haren and Swisher deals. But the major league team is always more important. You don't sacrifice a World Series to have the #1 minor league system in the universe.
http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/
by thejd44 on Mar 26, 2008 5:56 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Why move them in July?
Because they can potentially galvanize two playoff runs for the team you trade them to instead of only one.
You don't think that's worth significantly more in prospects? Look at the difference between the Bedard and Santana packages. Consider how much the Rangers got for Teixeira.
It's less critical for Blanton, because he has three years left under team control. Ditto Street. The other guy, besides Harden, that the team should be looking at shopping is Duchscherer, who's potentially "sellable" as a highly flexible guy who can start or relieve for his new team.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Mar 26, 2008 6:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't disagree
Especially on a guy like Duke, who is a little bit older and not under team control for as long as Blanton and Street.
My point is this: If you think you can win in 2009 with the roster as it is currently constituted (factoring in guys like Gio and Carlos coming up between now and then), why would you move guys who are under your control at reasonable cost?
One thing I forgot to mention: If Harden has a healthy first half, that could be a great time to move him. I don't trust his health. The A's don't trust his health. So if you get a healthy half, maybe you move him (unless you're leading the division and then it's hard to justify trading away your ace). Get what you can for what might be damaged goods when the value is high. I'd be ok with this.
And wouldn't Embree be the most logical trade chip on this team right now? He's a solid left-handed veteran reliever. How many of those exist in baseball? Isn't his talent totally wasted on a non-contending team?
http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/
by thejd44 on Mar 26, 2008 6:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
See above for the thoughts on Embree...
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Mar 26, 2008 6:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
But PS I disagree
If Street and Harden pitch at an elite level all season...a bigtime team that is worried about making the playoffs(the team may start with a Y) will give plenty to sign these two guys.
by IM4Oakgal on Mar 26, 2008 5:58 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
the goal is always to win the world series
if you don't have a realistic chance to do so in any given year you work to improve your team to be able to contend in the future. But any year that you have a chance to go for it you should.
That said, I don't think it's realistic to expect the A's to contend on the hypothetical situation of their being 100% healthy while the Angels and Seattle are not. If all three teams are mostly healthy the A's are likely to end up finishing third this season, just based on talent and experience alone.
by OaklandSi on Mar 26, 2008 6:29 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Thing is, April hasn't arrived yet and already
Lackey is down at least a month, Escobar somewhere between 1/2 a year and the rest of his career, and at least the initial returns suggest Harden and Duke feeling great and Hannahan picking right up where he left off, so...
...World Championship, forget it - contend to the trade deadline and become "buyers"? Possible.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Mar 26, 2008 6:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've seen enough!
Cautious moderation be damned -- keep 'em all, and go sign Barry!!! Yeehaw!
by by jiminy on Mar 26, 2008 7:24 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Sell, sell, sell!
I'm just as guilty as everyone around here of letting Rich Harden make me hope, nay dream of a 30-start season after seeing him pitch once-- and after we spent all offseason steadfastly promising to avoid doing just that, no less-- but I can't let it cloud my better judgment. Is Harden a game-changer? Yes. But he only changes-- if the A's are lucky-- about 10 games a year. I wouldn't even ask for something close to what the A's got for Haren; I'd be satisfied with a Swisher-esque package centered around a slam-dunk shortstop.
If Billy can sell high on Harden, he's gotta.
by Joey C. on Mar 26, 2008 7:43 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Thing is, as unsure a thing as Harden's health is
the same can be said of slam-dunk prospects - sometimes they're slam dunks and sometimes they clank off the rim like a Biedrins free throw.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Mar 26, 2008 8:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think Harden is going to be fine
I haven't thought that in the past, but he just looked different out there today, in my opinion. Very smooth and fluid. Effortless, really. I think the adjustments he's made are going to be the difference. Put me in the optimist corner.
Might as well Jump! - Van Halen
by sprtsnwyn on Mar 26, 2008 8:36 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
For one thing, he wasn't overthrowing / overamped
even though it was his first start, in Tokyo, etc. That has to help.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Mar 26, 2008 8:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yea I agree
Harden looked very calm, laid back, and was cutting through Boston's lineup like a hot knife through butter. If he can keep up this type of demeanor on the mound, maybe he will have the 30 start season that we have all been dreaming about....
"I Will Not Relent, I Am Driven"... Clutch
Bring Back The Bash!!!
by Shippee33 on Mar 26, 2008 8:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm with Blez
He made an excellent point about building your team around an ace. Harden is young, relatively cheap, and extremely talented. He's a top 3 pitcher in the majors when he's healthy so if he can prove himself to be healthy then you build your future around him not by trading him away. Imagine a rotation next year of Harden and Gio at the top with Blanton, Gaudin, and Eveland/Simmons/Duchscherer filling out the rest.
Harden is a talent that only comes around once every decade or more and trading him away when he has a realistic shot at leading this team for years to come is not a good business decision.
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
by Helloooo 1st on Mar 26, 2008 8:41 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
The thing is
if he's healthy and posting a 3 ERA for 2 years in a row, is there any way the A's can afford to keep him?
It seems like a situation that's tailor-made for a disastrous, Mike Hampton-esque contract mistake. I'd rather the A's weren't the ones to make that mistake, and I don't think they will be. I can't figure out a scenario whereby Harden is an Athletic after 2009.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Mar 26, 2008 9:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Blanton
I really can't see any reason to keep Blanton when you have Greg Smith (Blanton part two) or GoGon, H-Rod, and Cahill (who all have more potential then Blanton) who can take over for cheaper. It would almost be baseball malpractice not to trade Blanton for prospects if a high upside guy like GoGon is ready to come up in July.
A healthy Harden, on the other hand, is one of the top three pitchers in baseball when healthy, so it would be almost impossible to replace his production if he was traded. There is a definite argument to keep him even if the A's have a loosing season.
Sometimes life will strike you out on a curve ball and the only choice you have is to flip off the umpire and walk to first base anyway.
by Threepwood XX on Mar 26, 2008 10:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The reason you keep Blanton is because
durability matters.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on Mar 27, 2008 12:51 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
July contention means all A's doing well
Harden alone won't put the A's in contention - if they are in the thick of it in July, then several other players would have been performing better than expected. (I'm looking at you, starters 3-5)
Could those improved players be traded for talent instead?
by MobiusKlein on Mar 26, 2008 8:49 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
You have a choice between trading improved youngsters with many years left in an A's uniform
and an erratic, injury-prone ace approaching the end of his contract, and you want to trade the youngsters?
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Mar 26, 2008 9:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
uhh
now that you put it that way...
But seriously, if the others are doing well, we may get more for them than Harden by your logic.
If July comes and contention is there, we will have more trading chits that just Harden, and that is a good thing.
by MobiusKlein on Mar 26, 2008 10:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're sailing on the wrong tack here
It doesn't matter "who we can get more for" in some abstract sense.
What matters is building a playoff contender. For a rebuilding team, that means converting assets which will not hold their value until the next playoff run into assets that will be useful during that next run. That's why it's typically guys on short-term contracts who get shipped out.
Converting long-term assets to short-term assets is what a team near the end of the contention cycle, like the Tigers, does. It's folly to confuse a lucky season's contender status with a win-at-all-costs scenario.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Mar 27, 2008 9:12 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is it optimism or insanity?
So many things have to go just right for the A's to be in contention come July.
1) The Angels have to fall apart. Escobar going down is astep in that direction but Vlad is healthy and Lackey is due back in May. Lackey, Weaver and Garland are a very strong starting 3. Kendrick is going to hit, Hunter will too and if Kotchman can even duplicate his 2007 season the Angels should have a solid enough line-up.
2) The A's offense is going to be led by Jack Cust, Mike Sweeney, Travis Buck and Daric Barton. That's a potential one-year wonder, a guy who's spent more time on the DL than Rich Harden, a 2nd year player who missed half of his 1st season and a rookie.
3) Hell... #1 and #2 are enough to make it long odds already.
Even if Harden can magically hold it together this year does anyone think he can do it two years in a row? More importantly, is Rich Harden (even if he manages to stay healthy the next two years) the kind of guy you want to see the A's invest in long term? We still don't know what the exact problem is and he is pitching through discomfort in his right arm.
And if Harden is not someone you want the A's to commit 4 years/$48 million to (or more) then would you rather collect a couple draft picks or trade him for 3-4 prospects? 'Cause there's no guarantee that Harden is actually going to hold up for the next two years.
Billy Beane did not sit down in his office and say to himself "Hey, I've got a better chance of winning the AL West in 2008 if I trade Haren and Swisher." Didn't happen. If Harden can somehow go from junk bond to blue chip status in the next couple months then Beane is a fool if he turns down a deal that offers full value. If Harden can make his price jump it will be a lucky break for Oakland.
Luck doesn't last.
Neither will Harden.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Mar 26, 2008 9:55 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't think the A's are the better team ...
but the Angels were about an 88 win team with Escobar. Losing him will probably cost them 2-3 wins (depending on the success of his replacement), so now we're looking at an 86 win team. The A's are about a 79 team without Harden. If Harden somehow manages to stay health, that should add 3-4 wins, turning the A's into an 82 win team. Nothing has to go right beyond that for chance to overcome 4 wins of talent.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on Mar 26, 2008 10:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Where's the offense going to come from?
CF and SS are holes in the line-up until proven otherwise. Chavez is probably a scratch for a good chunk of the season and while Hannahan can hold the fort he's not going to put up plus numbers. He's an average bat. So is Ellis and Suzuki and Brown.
Which means the heavy lifting will be done by the quartet I mentioned earlier.
Beane did not build this roster to contend in 2008, he's building for a couple years from now. Trying to change course in the middle of the season is a great way to fall short of either goal.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Mar 26, 2008 10:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ellis = above average for a 2B
So the A's should have 4 plus offensive players: Buck, Ellis, Barton, Cust/Sweeney (assuming a platoon, I'm counting them as one). They'll have one who could be plus for his position, but will be at least average in Suzuki. Then you have Brown, Crosby, and whoever plays center field (and I don't see how you can be sure that Denorfia won't be a decent hitter). 4 good, 1 ok, 3 not-so-great. At worst. I'm not really seeing how that's a horrible offense. It looks middle-of-the-road and if they can play solid defense and get good pitching, as they should, they can contend.
I think you're underestimating how difficult it is to be out of contention in July.
http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/
by thejd44 on Mar 26, 2008 11:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ellis was above average last year
I don't think he'll repeat that this year.
You're calling Buck a plus offensive player? After a half season in the Show.
Barton is a rookie.
So two of your plus players have roughly half a big league season between them. No problem there.
Cust could be a flash in the pan. He's certainly unique. That doesn't make him good.
Sweeney has spent 73,486 days on the DL over the past few seasons. Yes, he has somehow managed to bend Time and Reality just so he can spend even more time on the DL!
Are you sensing any reason to be less then optimistic about the offense?
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Mar 27, 2008 12:16 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Barton is a rookie...that appears to be a better version of Youkilis!
The new greek god of walks is in the house.
by ChadGod on Mar 27, 2008 1:35 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Except that Youkilis is a gold glove caliber 1B, and Barton....isn't.
by WaddellCanseco on Mar 27, 2008 7:35 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Except that Youkilis is a fairly average hitter
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on Mar 27, 2008 9:15 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I need to look up the definition of average again
Because Youk definitely isn't it. He's way above average in OBP and above average (though not for a 1B) in SLG. How does that work?
http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/
by thejd44 on Mar 27, 2008 11:09 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ellis' career numbers are above average
Yes, a young player can be a plus player. Rookie doesn't automatically = bad or something. Buck and Barton are both plus offensive players. And both guys have shown throughout their entire professional careers that it simply isn't a problem that they haven't played at the level for very long.
Cust could be a flash in the pan. Anything COULD happen. The A's pitchers could all throw no hitters for the rest of the season and the offense could score 1 run a game and they'd go 161-1. It could happen. Doesn't mean, like, we should talk about it as if it's so.
I find your arguments pretty weak. I still think the offense is middle-of-the-pack. Just because it's possible to give a dreadful worst case scenario for every player (if they're all hit by a bus, the offense will probably suck. Hard.) doesn't mean that's the way it's going to be. Or even that it's the most likely scenario.
http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/
by thejd44 on Mar 27, 2008 11:08 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Here's the thing
I'm on a little family vacation, so was just going to steal a quick glance at AN and not even worry about logging on to comment. Congragulations, you pissed me off.
Let's start with smacking you down. Ellis' career OPS+ is 100. 100 = Average, so your claim for above average numbers is fantasy.
Cust struck out 164 times in 395 at bats. That kind of K rate means Cust will have to do a ton of damage on the balls he actually hits in order to be a plus offensive force. Maybe he can do that, devo wrote a piece a little while ago essentially comparing the uniqueness of Cust and Ichiro. The difference between the two comparisons is Ichiro has had 7 years of big league success while Cust has had roughly 4 months to compile his numbers. Pardon me to blazes for being slightly anxious about declaring Cust a big league success after a partial season.
Buck also has a partial season in the Show, of course he missed time due to injury and we know that's no big deal! The league will adjust to Buck now that they've got tape on him, the question is how will Buck respond?
Barton is a rookie. Admittedly, he's a rookie who had one Hell of a September, 2007 but he's also a rookie who hit 293/389/438 in 516 AB in AAA last year. It's insane to expect 6 months like last September in 2008. Anticipate some struggles.
I'm not talking "dreadful worst case" scenarios here, I'm being realistic. That's something you should try, rather then declaring Buck a plus offensive player after 285 injury interrupted at bats or Barton being the cat's meow after a 72 at bat preview. There are a lot of unknowns involved with some key offensive players and I'm just acknowledging them. If you wish to blissfully ignore these legitimate concerns that's your business, but don't use your rainbows and puppy dog whims to dismiss my arguments.
Learn something from this exchange and move on. I'm officially going back into vacation mode.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Mar 28, 2008 10:06 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Where's the offense going to come from?
If Harden is healthy and Blanton, Duke, Gaudin and Eveland more or less work out (nothing spectacular -- just meeting realistic expectations) we're looking at about a 90 win caliber pitching staff. to be an 82 win caliber team , we only need a 74 win caliber offense ...
You don't think this offense is good enough to be seven wins worse than average?
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on Mar 26, 2008 11:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If Harden is healthy?
Which he hasn't been for a full season since 2004! What's bothering him now? The doctors can't say. Awfully tough to fix a problem you can't identify.
But let's move beyond that.
Blanton. Solid arm, definetly a workhorse. A plus to the rotation.
Duke. Setting aside the recovering from hip surgery... Duke hasn't carried a SP's workload since 2003. He pitched 17.1 innings last year, 57.2 innings in 2006 and now we're expecting 180+ IP. There's a very good chance that Duke ends up being this year's Braden Looper: Great in the 1st half, then gets tired and doubles his ERA in the 2nd half. So if Duke follows the path of the most recent and obvious mid-career RP-turned-SP he'll fade badly down the stretch drive.
Gaudin has the stuff. He needs to get over two injuries and get himself in game shape... call it end o' April he's at full speed. Well, that's the exact same time Lackey is supposed to be coming back for LA and we both know which team gains the edge in that scenario.
If Eveland can pull a Dan Haren then maybe you're on to something but I thought you were asking for realisitc expectations.
As for the offense, I'm not even going to begin on how bad a hitter Crosby has proven to be over the course of his big league career. CF is a blackhole.
Cust, Sweeney, Buck and Barton have to carry the offense. The Killer B's have about a half season in the Show between them. I know they've got skills but surviving and thriving in the bigs is all about making adjustments and they haven't passed that test yet. If Cust is a flash in the pan then the line-up is in trouble. If Sweeney gets hurt... again... that's another problem.
Maybe karma has decided that this year is pay back for all the shit the A's went through last year. Maybe Duke and Harden and Street and Sweeney all stay healthy and can produce at a high level. But I'm not betting on that because karma rarely rolls that way. Beane sure as Hell wasn't expecting that kind of break when he dealt Haren and Swisher. He's committed to a course of action intended to build for the future. Any move he makes that interfers with that plan is only creating unnecessary problems.
Three months ago the smart play was to pack it in for the 2008 season. The bad percentage play was to go for it. The Angels losing Escobar and Lackey has not flipped those odds.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Mar 27, 2008 12:40 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
This entire discussion is based on the hypothetical that Harden is healthy ...
We're not going for it ... we've rebuilding ... but if the Angels want to hand it to us, we'd be foolish not to take it ...
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on Mar 27, 2008 1:14 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
No... the hypothetical is Harden is healthy come July
The A's are in long range spitting distance of the division lead and someone comes calling with a full price offer for Rich.
What to do?
Do you turn down the package on the gamble that Sweeney and Harden are going to last the rest of the season? That Duke won't wear out in the 2nd half? And on and on and on.
The A's are rebuilding and if they can turn a guy who 3 months ago wasn't worth .25 cents on the dollar into a full priced asset they'd be foolish not to make the deal. I don't care where the A's are in the standings, Beane committed the 2008 squad into non-contender status. If the Angels completely fall apart then the Mariners probably have a better shot at capitalizing then this year's A's squad.
The 2008 A's don't have the horses as is to make a run at the pennant unless all the other ponies end up shot dead and shipped to the glue factory. No way should Beane trade some of his prospects for rent-a-players to facilitate a 2008 post-season push. If you can't hold and you can't reinforce then you have to fall back.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Mar 27, 2008 3:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
My plan:
Trade Harden, then sign Bonds to replace him.
In all seriousness, I don't think we can really simplify the situation so patly. If the A's are 5 games up at the break and Boston calls to offer Lowrie and Masterson (but no Tejeda), I laugh and hang up. If the A's are 5 games back at that time, I take the deal.
Every game closer the team gets to being a playoff team makes Harden worth a little more in terms of prospects, and the converse is also true.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Mar 27, 2008 9:05 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Be fair
Lowrie + Masterson would not be full price, there'd have to be a 3rd player/prospect involved. Boston would not be the only team asking for Harden, if fact the Yankees have asked for Harden and got told the deal would have to include 2 of their 3 young arms. Not that I think the final deal would actually finalize that high but that's the A's negotiation starting point.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Mar 27, 2008 9:25 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, if Boston really did offer all three of those guys
the only question is whether the A's can withstand the PR hit of making a "rebuilding" move when the team is in first place.
From a strategy standpoint, it's not even close.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Mar 27, 2008 10:26 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
A more interesting hypothetical
The Angels come asking for Cupcakes or Harden.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on Mar 27, 2008 5:27 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That would require you actually liking the Angels prospects
and by and large, I really don't. Wood has a Texas-sized hole in his swing, Adenhart's numbers have never matched the hype, and past them the Angels system is as dry as it's been in recent memory.
Now granted, this is because they've graduated a lot of that talent to the majors-- but I'm not exactly waiting by the phone for them to call and offer up Kendrick and Kotchman.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Mar 27, 2008 9:01 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Up top you have Justin Masterson
as one of the prospects Boston offers. Adenhart's numbers beat the crap out of Masterson's numbers.
Hype or not, Adenhart's numbers are as good as any of the A's top pitching prospects.
As for Wood, I would rather take Hank Conger.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on Mar 27, 2008 9:44 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's not a fair comparison
because Masterson would be the #2 prospect in the proposed deal above.
If Adenhart is the #2 prospect in an Angels deal, it starts getting more interesting... but I still can't see making the move unless the team is utterly convinced that Harden can't stay healthy, because any season in which he IS healthy is a season which you've just conceded to Anaheim.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Mar 27, 2008 10:30 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The reason you can't see making
the move is why I suggested it would be and interesting hypothetical: at what point would Beane and Reagins consider trading with each other?
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on Mar 27, 2008 11:14 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Given how damaging it is for one team to give a good player to the other,
the only scenario in which I can see it happening is something like the Piazza scenario from last year. One team gives up a player with n present value but 0 future value, in return for a player with 0 present value but n future value.
Either that or a trade which so obviously benefits both teams vis a vis the rest of the league that it essentially doesn't matter who wins it. Those situations don't come along very often at all. You could maybe make the case that the Young/Garza trade was one.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Mar 27, 2008 11:27 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
To get a good player
most of the time, you have to give up a good player in return.
Sure, you hope for Mark Mulder for Haren + Barton + Calero, or even Benson for Maine type trades, but it is unrealistic to expect such trades.
It's not damaging to give another team a good player, as long as the player you are getting in return has more value to you than the player you are giving up.
Or do you mean in the context of making trades within the division?
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on Mar 27, 2008 2:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The latter
It IS damaging to give a divisional opponent a good player, because a. you will face that player 18 times a year (or 4-5 starts a year), meaning his performance will have a noticeable effect on your season (a player who is 18 runs above average will effectively be a minus 2 RAA for your team), and b. the opponent is competing against you for a playoff spot.
The zero-sum component of an intradivisional trade is much larger than the zero-sum component of a cross-divisional trade, which is nearly zero.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Mar 27, 2008 6:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Media and future deal
I think the only concievable way you dish either one of the two if were in the hunt for a playoff spot is if a team is willing to overpay by incredible amounts. Not just prospects, but prospects and a young player who is in the bigs and very promising. However i doubt that will happen just cuz the other team will be trying to get him to increase their playoff push, and getting rid of a solid young contributor might be too high a price. but it is beane were talking abotu here so it is always a possibility, even when it seems unlikely.
I'm from Canada, and on the sports center they were saying how the A's took the second game, but of course the last line they left off on was, " The red sox split the series by winning 5-1" But in canada we get such limited coverage, all winning teams in america are the only ones that get any attention whatsoever. Except on sirius hardcore sports, they know their stuff. Big small teams don't matter.
Our sports center guy after the first game also called our closer "Hudson Street". Its very irritating but their the media. Their not credible or professional in a wide scope.
by TheGreenGoldCrush on Mar 26, 2008 11:31 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Blez sir
Harden has never stayed healthy and most likely never will. Chavy has not been healthy for 4 seasons or so and almost the same with crosby. If no one gets injured on a lot of teams then those teams would also have chances to compete. I know it is hard to watch Hardens filthy stuff and wonder what would happen if he stays healthy. If you do that he will only dissapoint you when he is injured in a month or so
by Athletic on Mar 26, 2008 11:58 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Sentiments
I hope that for at least a single game in the 2008 season the A's have a seemingly fully healthy squad. I certainly don't expect it, but it would really make my day to see Chavez at the hot corner during a Harden start.
by ChadGod on Mar 27, 2008 1:44 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
That would be nice to see
I would love to see a healthy Chavy along with a healthy Crosby and Harden. Even with all of them healthy the A's have a lot of filler players out there right now, like Hannahan, Denorfia (or whatever his name is) and Brown, and That is just not good enough to be a competitive team.
by Athletic on Mar 27, 2008 3:17 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
We must re-up Harden; NOW!!!!!
No way can we let a talent like Harden go after the '09 season (especially after that one game gem vs the sox).
If Santana got around $22mm/yr, Harden's EASILY worth $25mm/yr. If we can do something along the lines of $250/10yrs, Billy's got the steal of the century!!
And while we're at it, could we also re-up his battery mate Suzuki after that game calling and 2-3 night . I'm thinking someone along the lines of Jorge money ($13mm/yr).
Long live HARDEN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
by Bacon on Mar 27, 2008 5:35 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
13mm/yr?!?
Suzuki is a rookie, he is under team control for the next 5- 6 years, 3 of them at $400k/year. So, i would go for a Crosby-esque contract at the end of the season ranging from 1-5 million/year at a total of about 8-10 million over 4 years with an option year at around $4-5 million.
With Harden I doubt he would extend because he will gamble on staying healthy and getting a $20-25/year over 6-7 years payday starting in 2010. About the only thing that has a light chance of working and only over the next couple months (assuming he stays healthy for the entire season) would be an extension that has guaranteed $10 million next year and around $15 for the next 2 years with an option year that has a buyout. The reason I say this assumes he is healthy this season is that he would not take the above after a healthy 2008. Basically, put him in the spot of deciding between a guaranteed $40+ million over the next 3 years or $7 million next year (like Billy won't take that option) plus a chance at guaranteed $120+ million over the next 6+ years or so.
by Donner on Mar 27, 2008 11:15 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dude
Bacon's comment was... not serious.
It would be interesting to put an extension on the table with Harden that's clearly below market price (say, 3 years/$15 million) and see if he accepts it. If he doesn't, it would be a pretty clear sign that he really is as delusional about his own health as he comes off as in interviews.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Mar 27, 2008 11:30 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Keep them to win a championship
I think Billy will keep them, because I think he wants to win a championship. Playoffs? Been there, done that, went home early. To win the championship, you need an ace (Harden) and a very dependable #2/3 (Blanton plus someone, order TBD.) You need some pop in the lineup also, and there's a good chance that we've got that in the system now. You're more likely to have Harden healthy than to have ANY prospect, no matter how dazzling, develop into another Beckett. And that's from someone (me) who loves what Billy has done and doesn't think Harden will be healthy.
My earliest memory in life is of Campy Campaneris
by eastcoasta'sfan on Mar 27, 2008 9:53 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Henrahan's new nickname

All I can get!
RIVER CATS: AAA CHAMPS!
by niallmack on Mar 27, 2008 11:20 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
red sox series proved
the a's have a chance this year, nearly sweeping the red so in japan is something that could show hope for the future.
"This guy threw at his own son in a father-son game." -Harry Doyle from Major League
by greenandgoldpolarbear on Mar 27, 2008 1:05 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
It proved that the A's have a great chance when Harden takes the mound
and a good chance when Blanton does.
Unfortunately, they don't pitch every game.
I agree that the A's have a chance to compete this year. I just don't think we can infer much more from 2 games.
Chiba Lotte lost simultaneously in the fighter plane of the Japanese ham.
by JediLeroy on Mar 27, 2008 3:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
correction
"red sox" not "red so"
"This guy threw at his own son in a father-son game." -Harry Doyle from Major League
by greenandgoldpolarbear on Mar 27, 2008 1:06 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

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