Does OBP tell the truth?
Or should we just ignore Spring Training stats? Or should we just ignore OBP stats?
Because, if we believe them, the Oakland A's and the Tampa Bay Rays will be the best teams in baseball this year. Well, only if you believe OBP is the "end-all-and be-all" stat... OBP Leaders. I'm actually okay with that, but do I believe it? No, because the A's won't pick the best guys to play. I'm pretty confident in that. However, the Rays might, so they could surprise a lot of people. Don't get me wrong, I think both of those teams will be good teams, but maybe not great teams. Does OBP lie?
I want the stat nerds of AN to tell me why, in the face of all the evidence to the contrary in Spring Training, that the A's and Rays won't compete for the whole enchilada down the stretch. They lead in OBP.
Does Spring Training predict nothing? Or, is there some pitching element in the equation I'm not accounting for?
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50 comments
Comments
the a's are first in AVG, fourth in SLG, fourth in ERA
if the a's are not the best team in baseball this year, we should just ignore AVG. does AVG lie?
if the a's are not one of the four best teams in baseball this year, we should just ignore SLG and ERA. do SLG and ERA lie?
i believe the a's and rays also have the two best W-L records in baseball right now.
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05
by xbhaskarx on Mar 16, 2008 1:49 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
yes, so you agree with me, xbh
one stat nerd on board. Who's next?
Go A's!
by FoolshGame22 on Mar 16, 2008 1:51 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
what exactly do we agree on?
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05
by xbhaskarx on Mar 16, 2008 1:57 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
that the A's and Rays...
are going to be among the best teams in baseball this year. Wasn't that the point of your post?
Go A's!
by FoolshGame22 on Mar 16, 2008 1:58 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I take it from your lack of response...
that you think neither the A's or the Rays will be among the best in baseball this year. You'll just wiat until next year to tell you what the previous year's stats predict. I undersand, entirely.... that's the safe move.
Go A's!
by FoolshGame22 on Mar 16, 2008 2:26 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
what the fuck are you talking about?
You'll just wiat until next year to tell you what the previous year's stats predict. I undersand, entirely.... that's the safe move.
i posted my predictions in your diary last year.
i got 5 of 8 playoff teams on AN, 6 of 8 on BP. and the mets and brewers missed by a combined 3 games.
you had 4 of 8 teams, and the a's, tigers, dodgers, and brewers missed by a combined 33.5 games.
and i actually made a w-l prediction for each team.
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05
by xbhaskarx on Mar 16, 2008 2:55 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
no it was not
"Does OBP tell the truth?"
"Or should we just ignore OBP stats?"
"Does OBP lie?"
"They lead in OBP."
i'm not sure what it is, but your point seems to be about OBP.
my point was that one shouldn't read too much into spring training when so many random minor leaguers are playing, there are split squad games, etc. the a's and rays should be decent, but probably not among the best teams in baseball. however well they do, it will not be determined by the 15 or so spring training games they have played so far. obviously it means less than the first 15 games of the regular season, and the a's are usually 6-9 at that point, even when they go on to win 90+ games.
"Or, is there some pitching element in the equation I'm not accounting for?"
No, because the a's OBP accounts for their own pitching.
i can never tell if you're being disingenuous or stupid.
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05
by xbhaskarx on Mar 16, 2008 2:29 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
lol...
so, will the A's or Rays be among the best teams in baseball this year? That's all I want' to know from your statistical predictive abilities.
I don't care so much about your points. Will the A's or the Rays be good this year?
Yes or No?
Go A's!
by FoolshGame22 on Mar 16, 2008 2:33 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
and where are your w-l predictions for the a's and rays this year?
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05
by xbhaskarx on Mar 16, 2008 2:55 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Here's mine
A's- 84 up, 78 down
Ray's- 81 up, 81 down
by jeffro on Mar 17, 2008 9:41 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Spring training
Spring training records and stats are pretty much meaningless in terms of what happens in the regular year.
So this whole conversation is moot.
Rickey Henderson: 35, 24, hall of fame!
by Athletics fan and runner on Mar 16, 2008 7:47 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm pretty sure it's spelled "mute".
(/joke)
"I'm going to take a camera crew and march into Billy Beane's office and demand to know why instituting his newfangled cost-saving measures means that the run manufacturing plant had to get shut down." FJM
by Elvez on Mar 16, 2008 11:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
So...
does that mean you're going to stop being lame now?
"I'm going to take a camera crew and march into Billy Beane's office and demand to know why instituting his newfangled cost-saving measures means that the run manufacturing plant had to get shut down." FJM
by Elvez on Mar 17, 2008 12:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
OK
There is no "evidence to the contrary." That requires thinking that spring training is "evidence," instead of "a small bunch of meaningless games played at half-speed."
So do bad ideas like "The A's should keep Brooks Conrad over Donnie Murphy because he's had 20 good at-bats against AAA pitching!!" Which given the OP's "the A's won't pick the right guys to play," I'm assuming he also thinks.
Have I mentioned at any point that I hate spring training?
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Mar 16, 2008 10:00 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
no you haven't
tell us about it PT!
President of the Joey Devine fan club as of 1/15/08. Accepting applications for other positions. "He has no equivalent." -Paul DePodesta on Jeremy Brown
by flipgatey3 on Mar 16, 2008 6:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Meaningless Games
While I'm inclined to agree with PT that using spring training performance to determine the best players is somewhat stupid, isn't that kinda the point of spring traing? I know that a large part of it is just to gear up for the season and get everybody going, but isn't the A's organization using this time to determine who should fill in the spots on the roster that are not already set in stone. So if Conrad goes 30/30 and plays decent defense while D. Murphy struggles why is it so crazy to suggest keeping Conrad over D. Murphy?
I think this sort of thing works on a kind of scale, if Ichiro doesn't get a hit in spring training you still start him opening day, on the other hand, if Linden continues his tear don't you have to think about giving him one of the open spots?
I guess my point is this; if you think that spring training performance is totally meaningless why not just play your starters from day one and get them the most at bats so they'll be ready rather than wasting your time with Brooks Conrad?
I always buy Farmer John's Bacon
by Keze on Mar 16, 2008 10:36 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
"While I'm inclined to agree with PT that using spring training performance to determine the best players is somewhat stupid, isn't that kinda the point of spring traing?"
Yes, except this is where I think just looking at numbers is meaningless. For example, Bobby Crosby was supposed to work on a number of things this offseason. ST is a time for coaches to analyze if he's done that, how it's helped, what new problems exist, etc. Most of this won't show up in the numbers (or it might, but it's not a sure thing to show up in the numbers). Now, Crosby has his spot locked down so regardless of what's happening he has his spot. But there are other guys who were supposed to work on things. Other guys need to show progress and development. The coaches who are around these players everyday need to analyze all this, but going 6 for 20 or 8 for 20 (the difference in .100 points of batting average) shouldn't be the difference between "nice spring" and "amazing spring."
by thejd44 on Mar 16, 2008 10:52 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
I totally agree with you that the statistics are taken from such a small sample size that they are essentially meaningless, that's why I said "Performance" instead of "batting average". I get it that the most important evaluations in ST are the "in person" kind, i.e. "Crosby is standing closer to the plate and seems to be handling the down and away pitches better" rather than "Crosby is hitting .300!"
Also, I know nothing other than what I've heard here about Brooks Conrad, and I wasn't trying to say that I think that he SHOULD take Murphy's place (I don't), just that it isn't all that crazy to think that his performance COULD earn him that spot. And if I was gonna blow my load over anyone's 20 at bats, it would definitely be Cust.
Look I'm not saying we should all be thinking we've got the next Babe Ruth because Conrad is batting .500 with 2 hr in 20 at bats, but the scouts and coaches who are watching the games should be able to determine something useful about Conrad in 20 at bats, so ST is not "meaningless" in terms of evaluating players.
I always buy Farmer John's Bacon
by Keze on Mar 16, 2008 11:30 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Performance, yes.
Stats, no.
WE don't know what players' performance has been like in practices, and most of us haven't seen them much in games either. So it's comical to suggest that we have any real idea who ought to get roster spots (that isn't backed by a statistical track record from prior seasons), as the OP seemed to.
I'm actually entirely in agreement with your last question-- spring training should be at least a week shorter than it is, and with far less of the random playing of minor leaguers.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Mar 16, 2008 10:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow
This post really annoyed me.
Here's why any stat, not just OBP, should be taken with a grain of salt
A) Spring Training isn't real
B) Spring Training is a small sample size
C) Players who won't be sniffing the majors will be pitching (and, for pitchers, hitting) to them in the majority of that small sample size
D) Players work on things, thus creating unrealistic situations (like Harden only throwing breaking balls just to work on those pitches).
Here's why your comments on OBP are beyond ridiculous:
A) Nobody ever called it an "end-all-and-be-all" stat (and if they did, ignore them). It's just the stat the correlates with winning more than any other. (This is true for the basic stats. Obviously more complicated ones have been created that do the job better. But WARP isn't really what this conversation is about).
B) Does OBP lie about what? Does it not really tell you how many times a player got on base? I don't really get what you're trying to say here.
C) You don't cite anything that shows that OBP isn't a predictor of winning. Even if ST is mostly meaningless, the A's and Rays have very good records right now. They also have very good OBPs. Other factors are certainly included, but you're actually proving the point you're arguing against. Two teams with a high OBP are winning games. It doesn't mean they'll win when things matter though.
Also, I'm starting to hate Brooks Conrad and it's not because of anything he did. I wish people would actually do some research on players before blowing their load over 20 at bats.
by thejd44 on Mar 16, 2008 10:49 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Better than blowing your load
over 20 bats.
/vulgar, doesn't even really make sense
Formerly known as hward86.
by BWH on Mar 16, 2008 10:53 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
the worst part is
i was going to make the same joke
President of the Joey Devine fan club as of 1/15/08. Accepting applications for other positions. "He has no equivalent." -Paul DePodesta on Jeremy Brown
by flipgatey3 on Mar 16, 2008 7:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Everyone should re-read Foolshgame22's post
and replace his user name with one you've never seen before - say "Fnarkle". If I saw this post, by a user I'd never seen here before, I'd ban the user as a troll; if you saw it, you'd roll your eyes and ignore it.
This is not to equate our beloved Foolshgame22 with a troll - it's to suggest that Foolshgame22 decided it would be fun to write a silly post (it doesn't even stay on message for more than a few words at a time!) and see who took the bait. Is that about right, Foolsh? Because it kinda reads like something you write Saturday night and then go "I wrote that?" when you're sober Sunday morning.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Mar 16, 2008 11:31 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I haven't been here long enough to learn everybody's opinions and personality
So is this a joke post or what?
by thejd44 on Mar 16, 2008 3:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I assume so, but am not exactly sure
what inspired Dr. Foolsh to submit this gem.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Mar 16, 2008 3:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
wow...
that's either a scary good guess, Nico, or you've got access to Homeland Security surveillance and wiretap files on me. ;-)
Go A's!
by FoolshGame22 on Mar 16, 2008 8:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just a guess from knowing you (online)
Didn't seem you could be serious, know you're not a troll, get the feeling you like to raise people's blood pressure every now and again.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Mar 16, 2008 8:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Congratulations Nico

As a celebration, I'm sending my dippy cousin over to your place with a couple of nice bottles of wine. She has this weird thing for goats, but I think you'll like her anyway. Here's her picture, so you'll recognize her when she rings the bell.

Seriously...thanks, Nico, for all the effort you put into this site.
by Soaker on Mar 16, 2008 8:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
hey, I feel like the pitcher who gave up Bonds'
record-breaking home run. Congrats, Nico!
Go A's!
by FoolshGame22 on Mar 16, 2008 8:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thank YOU, for your cousin!!!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Mar 16, 2008 8:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
But, I was especially impressed...
by your insight into my condition at the time of authoring the piece, not just my motive:
"Because it kinda reads like something you write Saturday night and then go "I wrote that?" when you're sober Sunday morning."
LOL
Go A's!
by FoolshGame22 on Mar 16, 2008 8:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Aww, why did you have to go ruin it?
All the outraged reactions were pretty amusing.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on Mar 17, 2008 11:15 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
OBP tells jokes:
Dusty Baker and Adam Dunn walk into the urologist's office, and Dusty says "I need a shyster!"
The A's colors are green and gold.
by mikeA on Mar 16, 2008 3:17 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
OK tell me if you've heard this one:
A walk, a hit-by-pitch, and a Rabbi walk into a bar...
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Mar 16, 2008 3:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, all they do is clog up the bar, too.
by thejd44 on Mar 16, 2008 3:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
hahahaha
Juan Pierre: 44 Million Dollars, Juan Pierre's 3.2 WARP3: Priceless
by Travis Buck Nuckin on Mar 16, 2008 9:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I guess at least a bar is
SUPPOSED to leave 'em loaded.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Mar 16, 2008 9:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think that OPS
is a better overall evaluation of a hitters talent than OBP is.
"I Will Not Relent, I Am Driven"... Clutch
Bring Back The Bash!!!
by Shippee33 on Mar 16, 2008 3:24 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I think "ham and eggs"
is a better evaluation of a breakfast plate than "ham" is.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Mar 16, 2008 3:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
bacon and eggs
would be better though
President of the Joey Devine fan club as of 1/15/08. Accepting applications for other positions. "He has no equivalent." -Paul DePodesta on Jeremy Brown
by flipgatey3 on Mar 16, 2008 7:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Grady Sizemore is also going to hit 150 home runs, steal 60 bases
and notch just shy of 900 total bases ...
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on Mar 16, 2008 4:01 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Maybe we should waterboard it, just to be sure
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
by Nick on Mar 16, 2008 4:42 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
what
President of the Joey Devine fan club as of 1/15/08. Accepting applications for other positions. "He has no equivalent." -Paul DePodesta on Jeremy Brown
by flipgatey3 on Mar 16, 2008 7:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

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