This year's squad compared to last year's. A reason to hope?
Just one fan's projections going into the 2008 season. Feel free to sound off!
The 2008 season for the Oakland Athletics has been widely touted as a rebuilding year, and as thus, not many are looking at the A‘s as being a contender. With most of the recognizable names gone through free agency or trade, on the surface this looks to be the case. But as the spring training season takes shape, many of the faithful are not buying into that popular thought. There is a growing feeling amongst those who follow the team that this in fact will be a team that can contend, that Lew was not crazy when he made his proclamation, "I'm expecting much better than a .500 season."
Here is a position by position comparison of last year’s starting roster as compared to a probable starting roster this season:
2007 Oakland Athletics Starting Lineup
15 Dan Haren, RHP
20 Huston Street, RHP
37 Joe Kennedy, LHP
40 Rich Harden, RHP
41 Alan Embree, LHP
45 Jay Witasick, RHP
50 Kiko Calero, RHP
52 Jay Marshall, LHP
55 Joe Blanton, RHP
56 Lenny DiNardo, LHP
57 Chad Gaudin, RHP
58 Justin Duchscherer, RHP
CATCHERS
17 Adam Melhuse, C
18 Jason Kendall, C
INFIELDERS
3 Eric Chavez, 3B
7 Bobby Crosby, SS
12 Todd Walker, IF
14 Mark Ellis, 2B
19 Marco Scutaro, IF
31 Mike Piazza, DH
29 Dan Johnson, 1B
OUTFIELDERS
6 Travis Buck, OF
22 Milton Bradley, OF
23 Bobby Kielty, OF
24 Shannon Stewart, OF
33 Nick Swisher, 1B/OF
2008 Oakland Athletics Starting Lineup (guessing...)
PROJECTED STARTERS:
1. RHP Joe Blanton
2. RHP Rich Harden
3. RHP Justin Duchscherer
4. RHP Chad Gaudin
5. LHP Dana Eveland
Gone is Haren, Kennedy and Loaiza, in is Duchscherer, Eveland and Gaudin.
Obviously none of those three is a Haren, but Gaudin and Duchscherer are upgrades over Loaiza and Kennedy. Starting rotation 2008 is slightly better overall than 2007.
PROJECTED BULLPEN:
RHP Huston Street
LHP Alan Embree
RHP Santiago Casilla
RHP Andrew Brown
RHP Kiko Calero
RHP Joey Devine
RHP Keith Foulke
LHP Lenny DiNardo
RHP Henry Rodriguez
LHP Greg Smith
It is widely reported that the strength of the 2008 A’s is their bullpen. Gone are names such as Jay Marshall and Ruddy Lugo, but with the addition of Brown, Foulke, Rodriguez and a healthy Street, this should give the starters more rest and keep the A’s in more close games than last year. And with a crop of young hungry arms waiting in the minors, relief pitching this year, I think, we can all agree is better than last year.
PROJECTED LINEUP:
1. LF Travis Buck
2. 2B Mark Ellis
3. 3B Eric Chavez
4. DH Jack Cust
5. RF Emil Brown
6. 1B Daric Barton
7. SS Bobby Crosby
8. CF Chris Denorfia
9. C Kurt Suzuki
The first change to this year’s lineup over last year’s is Jack Cust in the DH role replacing the inept and aged Mike Piazza. Obvious upgrade. Cust is a legitimate threat offensively and gives you some pop in an otherwise offensively challenged outfield. Daric Barton replaces a languishing Dan Johnson at first, which, if he is able to repeat his performance of last season, is also an upgrade. Mike Sweeney replacing Todd Walker is also a huge boost for the A’s this season over last, with Sweeney providing rest for Cust and Barton. Kurt Suzuki replaces the anemic Jason Kendall behind the plate, although Kendall’s handling of the pitching staff more than made up for his lack of offense, so that could be a wash. Melhuse’s bat will be missed off the bench, but Bowen looks serviceable. Donnie Murphy for Marco Scutaro…how can you replace Scutaro? Murphy can do most of what Marco did, except inspire 35k fans.
The outfield. Ouch. Buck for Bradley. Going purely by the numbers, Bradley is a better power hitter and forced runners to think twice about the extra base. Emil Brown for Swisher. No comparison. Denorfia for Shannon Stewart. No comparison. Kotsay's leadership will be missed, but not his fragile back. 2007 outfield definitely stronger than this years. But, they are younger, faster and should miss less games due to injury. And with the possible emergence of CarGon, the A's could have another 5 tool player with a cannon, a young Bradley without the mouth and morale-eroding antics.
PROJECTED RESERVES:
C Rob Bowen
1B/DH Dan Johnson or 1B/DH Mike Sweeney
INF Donnie Murphy
INF Jack Hannahan
OF Carlos Gonzalez or Ryan Sweeney
Overall prognosis?
This year's team has better pitching overall. With the upgrades at first base, catcher and DH, along with a potentially healthy Crosby, this could make up for a lack of pop in the outfield. This team also is faster on the base paths, and a change in team philosophy should lead to a more aggressive approach and lead to less double plays, more stolen bases and more manufactured runs. Younger arms and younger backs should also add up to less injuries (fingers crossed).
Better than last year? To this fan, I think it is not a logical stretch to say that the prospect for contention is not wholly out of the question in 2008. At the least this team should be better, more entertaining than last season.
2008 Oakland Athletics Starting Lineup (guessing)
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Outfield
I'd rather have Cust play LF and let Sweeney DH.
That increase in offense HAS to offset the defensive hit from Emil to Cust, right?
Oh yeah, in response to this:
Obviously none of those three is a Haren, but Gaudin and Duchscherer are upgrades over Loaiza and Kennedy. Starting rotation 2008 is slightly better overall than 2007.
I would submit that a 100% healthy Rich Harden is at a minimum equal to, but probably better than, Danny Haren.
I agree here.
I said it last year, and it sounds like I'll be saying it all this year. I have no issues with Cust in the outfield.
More than just ANtics: http://www.louisgray.com/live/
A Productive Bat is hard to come by
Put the nine best bats in the line-up. There is no doubt that Defense is important, but its TEAM defense and limiting mental mistakes that makes a good defense. Highlight real plays that change the outcome of the game are rare. Having a big stick (and multiple big sticks) in the line-up significantly impacts the decsion making behind every ptich and, along with greater production, has a much greater impact on wins and loses.
I'm probably preaching to the choir on this one (Money Ball readers), but just another vote for Cust in the OF...he can rest from time to time at DH against RHP, when Sweeney takes a day off.
At this point, I agree -
get Cust and M. Sweeney's bat in there, and make sure you have as a defensive CFer as possible out there (presumably that's Denorfia) - and then shade him towards Cust.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
This is the thing..
If they are healthy they will be good. If they ain't, they wont.
When will then be now? Soon.
Improvement
I think the team will win more games than it did last year. A team that is "supposed" to lose 100 games but realizes that it's better gains confidence over the year. The offense will be improved in the OF, DH, 1B, and C positions. The pitching will obviously rely on health. But, a healthy Harden is better than Haren and then the staff is improved over last year.
A healthy team will finish about 85-77. If Buck, Sweeny, Harden, Duke, Chavez, Crosby, and Gaudin battle injuries all year... then we're looking at a 90 loss season.
"I'm not going to buy my kids an encyclopedia. Let them walk to school like I did." -Yogi Berra
If your senario is assuming...
those seven players are healthy, I think our cieling would be higher than 85. Those are some pretty damn good baseball players when healthy, oh and then there's Crosby. That said, all of those players, due to injury, missed significant time last season, except for Gaudin who should have but decided to suck instead...er...I mean "suck it up" instead. You know be a "gamer." ...man the Giants suck.
by WhiteElephants on Mar 13, 2008 11:13 PM PDT up reply actions
i hate
the gamer commercials so much
President of the Joey Devine fan club as of 1/15/08. Accepting applications for other positions. "He has no equivalent." -Paul DePodesta on Jeremy Brown
I'm not much of a fan of comparisons
that work off of "last year vs. this year." It's the kind of thing that leads people to think "hey, we won 88 games last year-- let's trade for Erik Bedard!"
Pre-spring, I projected the A's to win about 78 games; at this point, I'm willing to bump it up a couple, because Gio and Carlos Gonzalez look like second-half contributors and Harden looks like he might actually throw a pitch in the regular season. If the Oracle at Delphi were to tell me that Harden would be healthy all year long, that would be worth another 5 wins easy.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
"Languishing Dan"
The best nickname I've heard for Dan Johnson. Certainly better than "the crab". Might stick.
Everything looks nicer when you win. The girls are prettier. The cigars taste better. The trees are greener. Billy Martin
You are probably correct....
but it's my party and I will cry if I want to.
I just like the kid. He has a lively arm and you are probably right, Hernandez will more than likely be there with "HotRod" starting in AAA, but when he starts mowing down guys in Sacramento, he will be here sooner than later. Just a big fan of his mad skillz.
"Doesn't play well with the other children." Ms. Darias, principal, Broad Ave School
Henry
I really doubt that Henry Rodriguez will be starting the season in Sacramento. He spent last year in Kane County and he's only 21. I have very high hopes for him as well, but with the number of pitchers in the system I don't see him getting past AA this year.
Of course, as many people have pointed out on this site (here, for example), we are currently stacked with pitching in the low minors while the guys in Sacramento are pretty uninspiring (though I do like Braden). So maybe we'll see some really aggressive promotion. I still think it's unlikely.
Yep
I'm not here to rain on your parade. I think we'll see him in the bigs...2009 as a reliever. 2010 if a starter. Only Billy knows.
by Colorado Fan on Mar 16, 2008 8:10 PM PDT up reply actions
Fernando Hernandez
And he's had a good enough spring to make the team out of Spring Training.
by thejd44 on Mar 14, 2008 11:04 AM PDT up reply actions
Rotation / Mike Sweeney
The starting rotation looks to be strong if everyone seems healthy and even Rich Harden hasn't been injured yet (knocks on wood). Chad Guadin is still rehabing but it looks like he could come back in time. Duke pitched well on his start granted it is just one. Blanton is well Blanton. The fifth spot I agree with Eveland getting it but Greg Smith could exceed expectations. If / when Harden gets injured then at least we'll be able to give our surplus of 5th / 6th starting pitchers a chance to gain MLB experience.
With the performance that Mike Sweeney has been putting up I hope that he will be able to make the team. The problem is that if Mike makes the roster we'll have to boot someone off the 40 man roster. If we place someone on the 60 day DL it'll give Billy Beane more time but someone will have to leave the 40 man roster eventually.
Duke
Didn't he pitch yesterday in a minor league game (to stay on schedule)? Does anyone know how that went?
very well
he threw 62 pitches over 4 shutout innings. According to Duke, there was no pain afterward.
"Put some ice on it. After that, there's nothing a few beers won't take care of. " -Pink
by OrlandoAsFan on Mar 14, 2008 10:41 AM PDT up reply actions
this is excellent news
good find
President of the Joey Devine fan club as of 1/15/08. Accepting applications for other positions. "He has no equivalent." -Paul DePodesta on Jeremy Brown
Agree
We certainly could end up significantly better than the 90 loss team projected by a lot of the "experts", however, I don't see us seriously contending for a playoff spot this year, in large part due to our division/league. As much as it pains me to say it, the Angels are a pretty fuckin good team this year, especially with the addition of Hunter, and the M's are pretty respectable as well, and winning the AL Wild Card is probably going to take as good of a record as winning this division would. If we were in the NL Central we would definitely have a strong shot at the playoffs, but then again so would some little league teams.
take money
I disagree
The Angels are not a better team this year. They were lucky to win as many games as they did last year, and the impact of the Hunter signing was way less than you would expect given the coin they paid for it. They've also made pretty much every possible wrong move when it comes to managing their bench players. I look forward to seeing Erick Aybar's limp-wristed hitting and Chone Figgins's stone-gloved third base play cost them games unnecessarily this year.
(Hidden allusion in this post. Anyone spot it?)
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
I take it as you are either.....
A. insinuating that Erick Aybar is flaming, or B. Chone Figgins is on some kind of drug. I'm sure your allusion was probably not that simple though.
"Put some ice on it. After that, there's nothing a few beers won't take care of. " -Pink
by OrlandoAsFan on Mar 14, 2008 6:14 AM PDT up reply actions
Allusion, not metaphor
It's literary.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
i must be using the word incorrectly
Is it not basically the same thing as you alluding to the fact that Erick Aybar is flaming?
"Put some ice on it. After that, there's nothing a few beers won't take care of. " -Pink
by OrlandoAsFan on Mar 14, 2008 10:44 AM PDT up reply actions
The Angels
It bugs me that the Angels have enough pure talent to win some games, because they really are a horribly run organization, topped off by a dimwit manager who can't keep his fat ass in the dugout for an entire game ever.
Not that I wish others to do poorly (that's a lie), but I'm looking forward to watching Brandon Wood flame out like all these other can't miss Angels prospects (Dallas who?). For the past half decade or more I keep hearing about how amazing the Angels farm system is and how great all these guys are going to be. Inevitably, they end up being very blah. I'm not sold on Howie Kendrick, either, unless he can pull a Jose Reyes and learn the strike zone.
When you combine prospects who aren't going to live up to potential, some downright terrible free agent deals over the past couple years (Matthews, Hunter), and aging players who weren't ever that great anyway (Anderson), I just don't think the Angels are that talented.
Of course, they'll probably still win the division this year and people will still say what a great manager Scoscia is because he likes when his guys get caught stealing as long as they get really dirty doing it (and he was a catcher, so that makes him awesome). But I just don't see them as significantly more talented than the A's, and I think the A's ceiling is about 20 stories higher.
by thejd44 on Mar 14, 2008 11:12 AM PDT up reply actions
what's up with....
all their highly-touted minor leaguers flaming out? You are correct in your assesment that they are continually praised for their minor league system, but in the end, these players end up not being that good. You would think the Angels' fans would be screaming about this similar to the way the A's fans are very vocal about the medical staff. Is it that the majority of angels' fans aren't very knowledgeable? Or is it something else? Just curious what's going on over there.
"Put some ice on it. After that, there's nothing a few beers won't take care of. " -Pink
by OrlandoAsFan on Mar 14, 2008 11:27 AM PDT up reply actions
Well, some could be injuries
like McPherson (who actually wasn't good before he was hurt).
But I think it's similar to the Cubs. Both organizations are so shoddy and have such pisspoor philoshophy from the top down that I could see them ruining their players the way the Pirates ruined Chad Hermansen or the way a few teams nearly ruined Jack Cust.
It's also possible they just get all these very athletic tools players who aren't that skilled at baseball, and when they get to the higher levels they get exposed.
by thejd44 on Mar 14, 2008 11:33 AM PDT up reply actions
I really don't think this is true at all
The Angels certainly aren't on the level of Oakland, Atlanta or the Dodgers in terms of producing great prospects, but they're not down in Giants/Pirates/Mets territory, either. They have a lot of solid homegrown players on their roster:
Anderson
Willits
Figgins
Kendrick
Kotchman
Napoli
Lackey
Weaver
Shields
K-Rod
All of these guys are at least in the average range, and some of them are actually quite good. Could they have more if they didn't have such a boneheaded organizational philosophy? Sure. But pitching is pitching, and they're definitely above-average at developing it.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
This list
First, Garret Anderson was drafted in 1990 and made his ML debut in 1994. I think that's a little too long ago because the team has a different owner/GM/manager now. I just feel like that era is too far past to really count him. Plus, I've always thought he was one of the most overrated players in the game.
I love Willits' OBP and all, but really, he's a fifth outfielder. I'm not going to get all excited about 5th outfielders.
Weaver (I'm going out of order here) was a great (top) draft pick who pitched around 25 games in the minors before making his major league debut. One could argue he was major league ready when they drafted him. I can't justify giving them credit for player development with him.
Kotchman isn't even as old as Dan Johnson was when he made his ML debut, and that certainly matters, but Johnson has actually put up better numbers and everyone here thinks he kinda sucks. I think Kotchman will be fine, and certainly better than Johnson in the long run, but he's not Ryan Howard or anything.
Napoli is fine, and for a catcher pretty good. Of course, I think his numbers are about what Suzuki will put up and people don't seem to be that high on Suzuki. I don't know what that says. Actually, Napoli might be the best example of development because he was a 17th round pick who was behind guys like Mathis (another bust, at this point).
I've already said I don't really trust Kendrick because of his horrible plate discipline.
Lackey is solid. No argument there. Shields, like Napoli, was a surprise guy who has been one of the best in the league at doing his thing. No argument on him. As for K-Rod, I still think he's a very beatable closer if you just don't swing at breaking stuff. In all the times I've seen him, he's gotten the breaking ball over for a strike 3 times in one at bat maybe twice. The problem is most teams go up there and flail at everything. That's not to say he isn't very good, and I certainly put him in the "Success" category for the Angels.
I guess going through that I agree they're above-average with pitching (although, what about Ervin Santana?), but I still don't think they can develop hitters very well at all.
by thejd44 on Mar 14, 2008 12:44 PM PDT up reply actions
How exactly are the Angels horribly run?
And in what way are they shoddy, at the level of the Cubs, or worse the Pirates? The Pirates?
Willits is a 5th OF? In what league? His D is good, his OPS is below average, but he has a VERY high OBP which balances that out. He is a decent baserunner, do not just look at SBs and CS, but also GIDPs. He can play CF in a pinch. That is a good 4th OF, even an stopgap corner OF.
"Weaver (I'm going out of order here) was a great (top) draft pick who pitched around 25 games in the minors before making his major league debut. One could argue he was major league ready when they drafted him. I can't justify giving them credit for player development with him."
They still drafted him. He has developed as expected. They did not get him injured. If you throw out top draft picks from every team, sure their developemental system looks worse.
As for Kotchman, you need to look at more than career numbers. Kotchman's career numbers are badly skewed by 2006, when he put up a 14 OPS+ due to mono. Also, Kotchman in 2007 put up a 119 OPS+. That is better than anything DJ has done.
Just for comparison, Kevin Youkilis, much loved and grossly overrated by statheads, has a single season career high OPS+ of 117.
Kotchman also plays good D.
Regardless of whether people are high on Suzuki or not, if Suzuki plays like Napoli that is basically an average player.
You may not trust Kendrick because of his plate discipline, but if he never improves, he is a decent player, no star, but hardly a bad player.
Lackey is not just "solid".
Someone could go through the players that the A's have developed, and do the same thing that you have done with the Angels players.
Would you then argue that the A's are shoddily run?
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
Or to put this another way,
compare Weaver, Kotchman, Kendrick, KRod, Napoli, Willits, with the players that the RS have developed under the boy genius Theo Epstein.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
"As for K-Rod, I still think he's a very beatable closer if you just don't swing at breaking stuff"
Oh! you've figured it out, just don't swing at that slider. That is an extremely hard thing to do. Yes he doesn't throw it for strikes all that often but he's not trying to. It's supposed to be an unhittable pitch and it gets about as close to that as any in the MLB (up there with Rivera cutter and Santana, Harden changeups). What makes it devestating is that he throws it so hard that hitters have a tough time discerning between it and his fastball, which is not an easy pitch to hit either, and one he can very consitantly throw for strikes. So you end up with hitters having to sit slider or fastball, and who end up swinging at balls in the dirt or looking at strike three down the middle. And then he could always throw in that rare curve and throw the hitter totally off balance. I don't want to sound like a fan of the Halos, but that man is a very good pitcher.
by WhiteElephants on Mar 15, 2008 2:26 AM PDT up reply actions
He added a changeup last season too
which made him way, way better against lefthanders.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Well that shouldn't matter too much for the A's...
we don't really have any lefties.
by WhiteElephants on Mar 15, 2008 11:48 PM PDT up reply actions
and the mariners are overrated too
won 88 games miraculously while allowing more runs than scored. A very good portion of their wins came from us, basically a AAA team last year after 22 dl trips.
"It's like déjà vu all over again." -yogi berra
Not disagreeing with your points but
While the Angels are not significantly better than they were last year, they were definitely a pretty good team last year who were able to breeze through our division pretty easily. Torii certainly wasn't worth all that money he got in his big new contract, but hes a pretty damn talented player, when it comes to things outside of diving for A's fly balls, and will add an elite player to an already strong team. The M's were very lucky to win as many as they did last year, which is pretty universally agreed upon in addition to the idea that its gonna be hard for them to win that many this year, so I wouldn't say their overrated, since nobody seems to see them doing anything. But they added an ace Bedard (overpaid for him but not with any players that really would have improved them this year) and got rid of a worthless moron not fit to start for a highschool team in Weaver (which sucks because taking the over on games that he started last year was pretty much the surest bet in sports, I can't imagine why nobodies picked him up yet), which means that while they might not win as many games, they are a strong team than last year.
Overall, for the A's to actually contend its going to take a perfect storm of things going in the A's direction: an injury epidemic of Athletics' proportions hitting the California Angels of Anaheim, suburb of Los Angeles in the United States, Earth (I can only make those jokes a couple years more until we become the Oakland A's of Fremont or something similarly awful so I'm trying to get them in when I can), all of the A's new players to completely live up to their potential this year and surpass all expectations, with the ones starting in the minors moving through quick enough to be able to make a difference for the A's and take us to a higher level of ball than before we had them, and for us to stay injury free in players that matter (Dan Johnson can go lop off his arms if he really wants). If all these things happen, in addition to us getting all the breaks in close games and doing exceptionally well in our divisional play, we could find ourselves in contention. Most likley it will be at least a year until we can seriously contend though. This squad has the potential to be amazing, and compared to last years squad they're practically on par with the 1910 A's, but with many "experts" (read: morons) projecting the A's to hit 90 wins, I'd say a 500 record would be fine with me as long as we can see that the young players we picked up were worth it and are looking like quality major league level players by the end of the year. Lets take this one game at a time and support the green and gold, without setting any insane expectations on a team that could realistically lose a lot of game, and maybe we will find ourselves still in the thick of it come August and September. Crazier things have happened though, and nothing would make me happier than taking this from those Assholes of Anaheim.
take money
by yo on Mar 14, 2008 2:48 AM PDT up reply actions
I assume you misspoke and meant the experts were predicting 90 losses
I don't know of anyone, expert or otherwise, who's predicted 90 wins for this team.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
must have been
President of the Joey Devine fan club as of 1/15/08. Accepting applications for other positions. "He has no equivalent." -Paul DePodesta on Jeremy Brown
i'm not saying i think they will seriously contend
but i think it's realistic to think that they will finish better than the rangers and mariners.
"It's like déjà vu all over again." -yogi berra
yeah for sure
We definatley could do better than Rangers and the M's, its entirely possible. I just dunno if we'll be anywhere close to the playoff picture.
take money
yeah i'm not expecting a playoff birth
but surprises could happen : D
"It's like déjà vu all over again." -yogi berra
Torii Hunter:
Amazingly slightly above average. He's a guy who's made his career on playing defense on the warning track so he can rob home runs, but singles drop in front of him all day (until he tries to dive for one and it goes for an inside-the-park home run, right, Kotsay?). Offensively he's decent for a CF, but he's probably not a top 10 offensive CF. And he's not a top 10 defensive CF, either. He's really only marginally better than Eric Byrnes, who signed a 3-year, $30 million deal from Arizona.
by thejd44 on Mar 14, 2008 11:15 AM PDT up reply actions
Eric Byrnes is not a CF.
Hunter is overpaid, but compare him to CFs, not corner OFs: Ichiro, Rowand, Andruw.
Name 10 CFs, who in your opinion are better than Hunter defensively. And 10 who are better offensively. I'm genuinely curious.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
74 wins
Not that I wager on baseball but Las Vega oddsmakers put the total number of wins for the A's in 2008 at 73.5. What does AN think of that number? Over or under?
Put money on 74+
I'm calling for 86 - even if I'm wrong there's 12 games margin for error!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
what about Linden?
He was a good prospect and he has done nothing but rake during the spring. He has mor epotential than brown and why not give him a shot

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